Date post: | 17-Jan-2017 |
Category: |
Environment |
Upload: | ipcc-media |
View: | 315 times |
Download: | 1 times |
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
An Overview of AR5 WG II Contribution
Purnamita DasguptaCLA, Chapter 9
The Framing: Climate as part of multiple, interacting contexts(a) Risks and Opportunities (b) Interactions : Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development
The Presentation: Two partsPart A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (ch 1-20); Part B: Regional Aspects (21-30)
The Literature Assessment: 308 authors, 70 countries, 50492 review comments
7. Industry, Settlement and Society8. Human Health
17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation
8. Urban Areas9. Rural Areas10. Key Economic Sectors11. Human Heath12. Human Security13. Livelihoods and Poverty
14. Adaptation Needs and Options15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits17. Economics of Adaptation
AR4
AR5
AR4
AR5
Scope of the Assessment
A CHANGING WORLD
WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS
AROUND THE WORLD
VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation
Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk
Risk Level withHigh Adaptation
Risk-LevelVeryLow Med
VeryHigh
4°C2°C
Present
Long Term(2080-2100)
Near Term (2030-2040)
THE LIKELIHOOD OF
INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE
SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS
INCREASE
RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
9
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
F ood and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased morbidity and mortality
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Key risks: Climate change,SouthEast Asia
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Region: Impacted by Flooding and Droughts
Vulnerabilities*
Some concerns….with adaptation potential bars relatively small in most cases at 4 deg C
• Wildfires, Health impacts from smoke exposure.• Increase in vector borne diseases such as dengue• Decline in rice yields, fisheries
* Please Refer to Table in the Asia Flyer
CLIMATE CHANGEREDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Climate change in the The Lower Mekong Basin Observations & future projections include:• Intensified flood and drought events which have
noticeably impacted agricultural output (90% rice production losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001)
• Vietnam and Cambodia are most vulnerable to climate change impacts on fisheries
AR5 WGII ch.24
All countries of the LMB have national adaptation plans; Transboundary adaptation planning : A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network has been proposed.