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Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

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Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability An Overview of AR5 WG II Contribution Purnamita Dasgupta CLA, Chapter 9
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Page 1: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

An Overview of AR5 WG II Contribution

Purnamita DasguptaCLA, Chapter 9

Page 2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

The Framing: Climate as part of multiple, interacting contexts(a) Risks and Opportunities (b) Interactions : Adaptation, Mitigation and Sustainable Development

The Presentation: Two partsPart A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (ch 1-20); Part B: Regional Aspects (21-30)

The Literature Assessment: 308 authors, 70 countries, 50492 review comments

Page 3: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

7. Industry, Settlement and Society8. Human Health

17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation

8. Urban Areas9. Rural Areas10. Key Economic Sectors11. Human Heath12. Human Security13. Livelihoods and Poverty

14. Adaptation Needs and Options15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits17. Economics of Adaptation

AR4

AR5

AR4

AR5

Scope of the Assessment

Page 4: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

Page 5: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

AROUND THE WORLD

VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

Page 6: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Risk-LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

Page 7: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

THE LIKELIHOOD OF

INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE

SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS

Page 8: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Page 9: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

9

Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.

Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4

Page 10: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

F ood and water shortages

Increased poverty

Increased morbidity and mortality

Coastal flooding

AR5 WGII SPM

Page 11: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Key risks: Climate change,SouthEast Asia

Page 12: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Region: Impacted by Flooding and Droughts

Vulnerabilities*

Some concerns….with adaptation potential bars relatively small in most cases at 4 deg C

• Wildfires, Health impacts from smoke exposure.•  Increase in vector borne diseases such as dengue• Decline in rice yields, fisheries

* Please Refer to Table in the Asia Flyer

Page 13: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution
Page 14: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

CLIMATE CHANGEREDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS

Page 15: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Overview of AR5 WGII contribution

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Climate change in the The Lower Mekong Basin Observations & future projections include:• Intensified flood and drought events which have

noticeably impacted agricultural output (90% rice production losses in Cambodia during 1996-2001)

• Vietnam and Cambodia are most vulnerable to climate change impacts on fisheries

AR5 WGII ch.24

All countries of the LMB have national adaptation plans; Transboundary adaptation planning : A multi-stakeholder Regional Adaptation Action Network has been proposed.


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