Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004621 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT Loan Number 7864-CN ON A LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$100 MILLION TO THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA FOR A WUHAN SECOND URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT JUNE 28, 2019 Transport Global Practice East Asia and Pacific Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized
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Document of
The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Report No: ICR00004621
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT
Loan Number 7864-CN
ON A
LOAN
IN THE AMOUNT OF US$100 MILLION
TO THE
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
FOR A
WUHAN SECOND URBAN TRANSPORT PROJECT
JUNE 28, 2019
Transport Global Practice East Asia and Pacific Region
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective August 31, 2018)
Currency Unit = Yuan (CNY)
CNY 1 = US$0.147
US$1 = CNY 6.82
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 – June 30
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ATC Area Traffic Control BCR Benefit-Cost Ratio CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CPS Country Partnership Strategy EA Environmental Assessment EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return FM Financial Management FYP Five-Year Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas ICM Integrated Corridor Management ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IEG Independent Evaluation Group ITS Intelligent Transport Systems JAE Jiefang Avenue Extension LA Legal Agreement M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MOT Ministry of Transport MTR Midterm Review NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDRC National Development and Reform Commission NMT Nonmotorized Transport NPV Net Present Value O&M Operation and Maintenance PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit PMO Project Management Office PT Public Transport RAP Resettlement Action Plan RI Road Improvement RS Road Safety
SuM4All Sustainable Mobility for All TDM Travel Demand Management VOC Vehicle Operating Cost WITDP Wuhan Integrated Transport Development Project WMG Wuhan Municipal Government WSUTP Wuhan Second Urban Transport Project WUTP Wuhan Urban Transport Project
Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa
Country Director: Martin Raiser
Senior Global Practice Director: Guangzhe Chen
Practice Manager: Binyam Reja
Task Team Leader(s): Arturo Ardila Gomez
ICR Main Contributor: Annika Berlin
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................9
II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 13
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 13
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 14
C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 22
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 23
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ............................................................................ 24
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 25
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 25
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 26
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 27
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 27
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 28
C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 31
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 33
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 33
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 36
ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 51
ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 53
ANNEX 6. LESSONS LEARNT FROM ICR WUHAN I .................................................................. 75
ANNEX 7. MAPS PROJECT SITES WUHAN II ........................................................................... 76
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DATA SHEET
BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name
P112838 China Wuhan Second Urban Transport
Country Financing Instrument
China Investment Project Financing
Original EA Category Revised EA Category
Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)
Organizations
Borrower Implementing Agency
People's Republic of China Wuhan Urban Construction Utilization of Foreign Investment Project Management Office
Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO The objective of the Project is to assist the Borrower's Municipality of Wuhan to enhance mobility for passenger trips within and to the central area of Wuhan in an environmentally sustainable, integrated and safe manner.
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FINANCING
Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing IBRD-78640 100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule
30-Aug-2017 83.40 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule
Urban Transport 87 Public Administration - Transportation 13
Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%)
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Urban and Rural Development 100 Urban Development 100
Urban Infrastructure and Service Delivery 100
ADM STAFF
Role At Approval At ICR
Regional Vice President: James W. Adams Victoria Kwakwa
Country Director: Klaus Rohland Martin Raiser
Senior Global Practice Director: John A. Roome Guangzhe Chen
Practice Manager: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Binyam Reja
Task Team Leader(s): Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Arturo Ardila Gomez
ICR Contributing Author: Annika Berlin
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I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
Context
1. China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006–2010) called for supporting the ‘Rise of Central China’ initiative, which embarked on a rapid program of infrastructure construction that was believed to be essential to sustain and increase the country’s recent economic success. Increasing urbanization caused the Government to look for solutions to lower the levels of traffic congestion, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Other goals were to achieve fewer traffic-related accident fatalities, improve mobility and accessibility (especially for low-income populations), and accommodate nonmotorized transport (NMT) needs. To cope with transport congestion problems, China first focused on building more roads which often displaced NMT and encouraged more private car usage. Recognizing the need for an alternative approach, the State Council’s Opinion No. 46, issued in October 2005, declared that urban public transport (PT) development should be a national priority. Despite this shift in priority from the Central Government, attention on bus transport remains fragile even though buses are the backbone of PT in China.
2. Located in Hubei Province in central China, the Wuhan Metropolitan Region is a city cluster formed by eight smaller cities within a 100 km radius of the core city. Wuhan is the country’s eighth largest city, with a population of over 8 million at project appraisal in 2010. It comprises an important economic center and a transport hub in Central China. Wuhan is composed of three districts—Wuchang, Hanyang, and Hankou—which developed independently and simultaneously, forming a core urban area with a population of more than 5 million. In 2007, the State Council designated the city as a National Experimental Zone for the implementation of the Comprehensive Supplementary Reform on the Construction of a Resource-saving/Environmentally Friendly Oriented Society (‘Two-type Society’, meaning both energy efficient and environment friendly). Wuhan is also one of the pilot cities of the Transit Metropolis Demonstration Initiative by the Ministry of Transport (MOT) that promotes strategies on public and NMT priority schemes, travel demand management (TDM), and transit-oriented development patterns.
3. At appraisal, Wuhan's PT system comprised mainly buses, trolley buses, ferries, and one 10 km elevated rail line, which was being extended. Individual transport by car was increasing steadily with rising personal incomes and so was the number of trips by motorcycles. Trips by bicycle and other NMT had decreased, but the share of walking trips remained high. Due to the inefficiency of integration among different transportation modes, the modal share of public transportation was at around 20 percent (see Table 1).
Table 1: Modal Share in Wuhan at time of appraisal Mode 1998 2004 2008
Walking 37 % 41 % 38 %
Bicycle 29 % 20% 20 %
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PT 22 % 23 % 24 %
Passenger car & motorcycle 12 % 16 % 18 %
Source: PAD WUSTP
4. The Wuhan transport strategy (2006–2020) identified four key issues that framed the World Bank’s intervention: (a) congestion on river crossings, (b) missing links in the primary road network, (c) congestion in the city center due to limitations in the road network’s performance, and (d) the need to improve the performance and modal share of PT services. There were also concerns about the national approach to road safety (RS), which was being tackled in an unfocused way. Road User Education programs were too general with no target group or target messages and enforcement was based on achieving high targets for violations.
5. In preparation for the project, a survey was conducted by the Wuhan University Resettlement Center to identify key transport issues that concern the citizens of Wuhan. Key findings that were incorporated in the project design include (a) widespread perception that the Government was paying inadequate attention to the needs of pedestrians, (b) concerns about many unsafe road crossings at intersections, (c) unsafe and inconvenient cycling conditions, and (d) poor street management resulting in cars being parked illegally either on sidewalks or bicycle paths.
6. A major project design innovation was the integrated corridor management (ICM) concept,1 which focuses on an integrated program of RS, NMT, and roadway improvements, including infrastructure, enforcement and education measures, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS), TDM, and PT service and quality. The project interventions were concentrated along a few key municipal transport corridors to increase their impact and serve as demonstration initiatives that can later be implemented in other critical corridors of the city.
7. The project design was consistent with the World Bank Group’s 2006–2010 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for China. The project supported the third pillar: managing resource scarcity and environmental challenges. Under this pillar, the CPS highlighted the need to promote urbanization and transportation options, including public transportation that reduces pollution and fuel consumption. The CPS also described how the development of efficient urban and public transportation networks would support the achievement of national targets for gross domestic product (GDP) energy intensity and climate change mitigation efforts.
Theory of Change (Results Chain)
8. The Theory of Change in figure 1 depicts the different activities that contributed to reaching the project’s final outcomes and their expected long-term effects beyond the project’s closing date. The project components were linked to the different Project Development Objective (PDO) elements to allow for a better understanding of how the projects interventions lead to the outcome. However, it should be
1 For a detailed explanation of ICM please refer to Sam Zimmerman, Said Dahdah, and Wei Wang. 2012. “Integrated Corridor Management for Urban Transport, Transportation Research Record.” Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2278: 125–133. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C. DOI: 10.3141/2278-14.
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noted that the PDO elements ‘safe, environmentally sustainable, and integrated’ are cross-cutting along the five components.
Figure 1. Theory of Change (Results Chain)
Project Development Objectives (PDOs)
9. The PDO, as stated in the Legal Agreement (LA) and the Project Appraisal Document (PAD), is to assist Wuhan Municipality in enhancing mobility for passenger trips within and to the central area of Wuhan in an environmentally sustainable, integrated, and safe manner.
Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators
10. The PDO is a composite statement comprising five expected outcomes with the following key outcome indicators at time of appraisal (see PAD page 45):
PDO Element 1: Enhance mobility within the central area of Wuhan
• Average bus speed along PT corridors during peak hours
• Municipal modal share of public transport
• Average daily bus ridership along PT corridors
PDO Element 2: Enhance mobility to the central area of Wuhan
• Peak hour travel time on targeted road sections
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PDO Element 3: In a safe manner
• Fatality reduction on the road safety corridors
PDO Element 4: Environmentally sustainable
• No PDO indicator at the time of appraisal
PDO Element 5: In an integrated manner
• No PDO indicator at the time of appraisal
Components
11. The project had five components, as stated in the LA dated June 11, 2010 (the same as in the PAD dated March 2, 2010). These components are described in table 2. Annex 7 provides a map with the locations of the project interventions. The total project cost was estimated at US$610.71 million at appraisal with total IBRD financing of US$100 million.
Table 1. Project Components and Description
Components Description Amount Allocated in PAD
1. Public Transport
Strengthening PT route rationalization and operations, including providing on-street priority to buses. Key selected road corridors are within the Second Ring Road, as follows:
(a) Jiefang Avenue (in Hankou), also RS (b) Xinhua Lu/Youyi Lu (in Hankou), also RS (c) Heping Avenue (in Wuchang) (d) Hanyang Avenue/Yingwu Avenue (in Hanyang)
Construction of PT transfer terminals/interchanges to facilitate transfers from private to PT modes and park and ride for NMT and cars
(a) San Jin Tan (b) Gangdu Garden (c) Tian Shun Yuan (d) Jinyin Tan
US$44.9 million (US$21.23 million IBRD financing)
2. Road Safety Improving traffic management, safety, and mobility through traffic enforcement, education campaigns, and engineering measures including installation of additional traffic signals for vehicles, mid-block traffic signals for pedestrians, facilities for pedestrians and cyclists, and signs and markings in the following corridors and areas:
(a) Jiefang Avenue, also PT (b) Heping Avenue, also PT (c) Longyang Avenue (d) Xudong Dajie/No. 2 Yangtze bridge (e) Yanhe Avenue/Yanjiang Avenue (f) Specific activities to support overall improvement in safety
and mobility in the area within the Second Ring Road
US$14.52 million (US$11.38 million IBRD financing)
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Components Description Amount Allocated in PAD
3. Road Improvement
Rehabilitation, upgrading, and construction of three key links of the urban road network:
(a) Rehabilitation of a 6.5 km section of Jiefang Avenue (Huangpu to Dibian Road) and construction of a 2.86 km extension (Dibian Road to Third Ring Road)
(b) Rehabilitation of ground roads along the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road and the concurrent ground road section under the approach bridge of the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge in Wuchang
(c) New construction of the elevated Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road from Heping Dadao to Zhongbei Lu Extension
US$434.80 million (US$58.30 million IBRD financing)
4. Travel Demand Management
Conduction of a program to improve TDM by procuring equipment and carrying out studies, training and capacity-building measures for the Urban Road and Bridge Monitoring Center, including
(a) Fiber optic communication network; (b) Variable message signs; (c) Closed-circuit television monitoring cameras; (d) Weigh-in-motion system for truck management and
control; (e) Equipment for the main control center; and (f) Equipment for the Yangtze River Bridges Control Sub-
Centers.
US$4.92 million (US$4.35 million IBRD financing)
5. Institutional Development
Conduction of studies and a comprehensive plan for strengthening the institutional capacity of Wuhan Municipality in developing an urban transport strategy. The studies are
(a) Congestion charging feasibility study (including parking demand management) that would seek to establish the foundations for congestion charging in Wuhan (included in the TDM component);
(b) Study of planning for nonmotorized vehicles and pedestrians;
(c) Study of the optimization of PT networks and integration across modes;
(d) Study of institutional and management framework for urban-rural integration; and
(e) Study of urban transport investment and asset operation.
US$4.48 million (US$4.48 million IBRD financing)
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)
Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets
12. The PDO itself was not changed, but the associated outcome indicators were revised, as described in table 3.
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Revised PDO Indicators
13. Two project restructurings revised the Results Framework significantly. Of the five initial outcome indicators, two were dropped, two were revised, and two were added to reflect the fast pace of development of the city, whereby the metro construction superseded project elements. The development of a strategy and manual for the environmental management of civil works in urban mobility projects were added to measure the achievement of PDO element 4. The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework was updated accordingly, with the new PDO indicators as shown in table 3.
Table 2. Revised PDO Indicators
Expected Outcome Original Indicators (PAD page 45) Revised Outcome Indicators 1. To enhance mobility
for passenger trips within the central area of Wuhan
• Increased average bus travel time along PT) corridors during peak hours
• Average daily bus ridership along PT corridors
• Municipal modal share of public transport (bus, ferry, metro)
• Modal share of PT (bus, metro) on targeted PT corridors
• Average peak-hour travel time by bus along targeted PT corridors
2. To enhance mobility for passenger trips to the central area of Wuhan
• Peak hour travel time (in minutes) on Jiefang Avenue
• Peak hour travel time on Jiefang Av, Jiefang Extension, Shuidong Section of Second Ring Road
3. Safe • Fatality reduction on the RS corridors
• Average number of fatalities per year on four RS corridors
4. Environmentally sustainable
No indicator • Wuhan develops a strategy for environmentally friendly construction and maintenance and operation of urban mobility infrastructure
5. Integrated No indicator • Wuhan develops an integrated public transport strategy
Revised Components
14. Some activities included at appraisal were not implemented as planned, while others were added to achieve project outcomes. These changes were approved in the restructurings described in paragraph 19 and in table 4.
• The PT corridor Jiefang Avenue (in Hankou) was deleted because the Government decided to turn the Avenue into a 15 km 'scenic road', which cannot serve as a PT corridor.
• The PT corridor Xinhua Lu/Youyi Lu (in Hankou) was deleted due to a lack of space to add a bus lane and physical constraints as a result of the construction of a viaduct at the same site.
• The PT Corridor Yingwu Avenue (in Hanyang) was deleted because it overlaps with the metro line.
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• The PT corridor Hanyang Avenue was redesigned to enhance integration with the metro line and was extended from 5.4 km to 11.4 km.
• Two PT terminals were dropped (Gangdu Garden and the Jinyintan Park and Ride) due to land regulation issues and counterpart funding for land requisition and housing demolition not being paid on time.
• Of the five RS corridors in the PAD (of which two were also PT corridors), three were successfully implemented (Hanyang, Xudong, and Heping), while one was replaced (Yanjiang by Baishazhou) and successfully implemented. Two were dropped at the first restructuring (Jiefang and Longyang) because of being superseded by urban construction.
• Heping Avenue construction was 2.7 km less than the planned length due to the impact of the metro construction.
Table 3. Component Changes during Project Restructurings
Components Change in 2015 Restructuring Change in 2017 Restructuring
Appraisal estimate
(US$, millions)
Actual Expenditure
(US$, millions)
A. Public Transport
2 corridors were dropped (Jiefang Avenue and Xinhua Lu/Youyi Lu); 2 corridors remained and were integrated with the RS component (Heping Avenue and Hanyang Avenue/Yingwu Avenue)
2 PT Terminals were dropped (Gangdu Garden and the Jinyintan Park and Ride)
44.90 33.91
B. Road Safety 3 corridors were dropped (Jiefang Avenue, Yanhe/Yanjiang Avenues and Longyang Avenue), 2 corridors were added (Hanyang Avenue, Baishazhou Avenue), and 2 remained (Heping Avenue and Xudong Dajie/No. 2 Yangtze Bridge)
Completed 14.52 10.11
C. Road Improvement
No change No change, but delayed 434.80 874.06
D. Travel Demand Management
No change Completed 4.92 5.08
E. Institutional Development
Deleted a study on urban-rural integration Added a study on ITS feasibility and sustainability
Added environmental management manual
4.48 3.66
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Other Changes
15. The loan closing date was extended for a total of 32 months from the original closing date of December 31, 2015. The first restructuring in 2015 extended the closing date to August 31, 2017, and increased the percentage financed by the loan for civil works to 90 percent, from the previous 50 percent. The LA was amended to include the names of the PT corridors, bus terminals, and RS corridors to be financed. For the institutional development component, the names of the studies were adjusted according to new priorities, that is, the preparation of the Wuhan Integrated Transport Development Project (WITDP).
16. In August 2017, the Ministry of Finance, on behalf of the Wuhan Municipal Government (WMG), requested a second closing date extension of 12 months to August 31, 2018. The updated total project cost was US$926.81 million (up from US$610.71 million at appraisal). IBRD financing remained at US$100 million.
Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change
17. Project implementation and disbursement were slow at the beginning. The total cost for land acquisition and resettlement increased from US$192 million (estimated at appraisal) to US$520 million. This placed strong pressure on the WMG to provide adequate, timely financing for some of the project components, especially the Jiefang Avenue Extension (JAE), which required the most land acquisition and resettlement because the alignment was to go through several built-up areas. In addition, the Urban Village Renewal Program2 being implemented in Wuhan complicated the coordination of land acquisition and resettlement agencies for the Tianshunyuan and Sanjintan PT terminals. This delayed negotiations with land owners and made it difficult to obtain approvals on land use and planning.
18. Wuhan’s decision to expand its metro system diverted resources from the road improvement (RI) component and led to less attention being paid to the bus priority corridors under the project. In some cases, the project’s bus corridors overlapped with the new metro lines, thus necessitating a redesign of these corridors to create a more complementary PT system with feeder routes to the new metro stations.
19. Paragraph 14 under ‘Revised Components’ provides specific rationales for the changes in the project activities. These changes had no negative impacts on the PDO and the Theory of Change.
2 The ‘urban village renewal program’ was a government-led redevelopment program to clear the underdeveloped rural spots inside the urban areas. Specific authorities were established to carry out the land acquisition and resettlement of the villagers; land and property ownership was changed, some were documented, some were not; village committees, villagers’ groups, and different levels of local governments were involved, and some corporations were also created to handle land and real estate development. The implementation and ending of this program have caused complications in the land and property ownership and also the responsibility and accountability of different parties involved, therefore the coordination problem.
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II. OUTCOME
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs
Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating
20. Alignment with national strategies. The project is fully aligned with China’s 13th FYP (2016–2020) which prioritizes a modern, integrated transport system strategy while achieving low carbon development. Chapter 29 of the 13th FYP specifically points out that an efficient, intelligent, green, integrated, and interconnected infrastructure network must be built to contribute to overall economic and social development. Project components, such as traffic management, RS, and the enhancement of the PT system, are fully aligned with these objectives and designed to help advance the national objectives through demonstration projects.
21. Alignment with local strategies. The PDO remains highly relevant for Wuhan and is in line with the priorities articulated in the municipality’s 13th FYP, in particular with the objectives to develop a modern, smart, livable, and eco-friendly city with efficient provision of public services. To tackle the rapid motorization, Wuhan Municipality adopted a new transport strategy in 2015 3 with the objective of establishing a comprehensive transport system characterized by rapid, safe, and convenient movement of people and goods to minimize travel time and pollution and promote coordinated urban and rural transport development. The strategy seeks to increase the PT modal split to at least 30 percent of total trips by 2020. The project components, such as ICM, construction of local access roads, TDM, and enhancement of the PT system, are fully aligned with these objectives and challenges.
22. Alignment with World Bank priorities. The PDO remains substantially relevant to the World Bank Group’s current China CPS (FY2013–2016), 4 which focuses on three main areas of engagement: (a) supporting greener growth, (b) promoting more inclusive development, and (c) advancing mutually beneficial relations with the world. The project especially supports Outcome 1.3: Promoting Low-carbon Urban Transport by addressing the city’s rapid motorization through
• Acceleration of the shift to PT and improvement of transport efficiency by means of investments in key urban corridors, in combination with TDM;
• Piloting of institutional and technological innovations that have the potential for scale-up in cities throughout China, such as PT integration, TDM, and ITS;
• Assistance in promoting urban transport safety by demonstrating RS and traffic management measure; and
• Enhancement of mobility for NMT such as walking and cycling.
3 Hubei Province’s 13th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Transportation Development. 4 There was no updated CPS at the time of the ICR and the CPS for FY2013–2016 still remains valid.
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23. The PDO is also well aligned with the World Bank’s Sustainable Mobility for All (SuM4All)5 initiative by simultaneously pursuing equity, efficiency, safety, and green mobility. The project is also in line with suggestions in the World Bank’s Flagship Report Urban China,6 which calls for greater integration among transport modes and means to make PT more attractive than car transportation, while using pricing mechanisms to manage travel demand. The project also remains relevant under the new capital increase requirements7 which demand that World Bank projects address the topics of sustainable institutions and systemic issues (coordination between institutions at the urban level) and global public goods (reducing emissions from the transports sector), as well as groundbreaking innovations and sustainable financing.
24. Rating. As outlined previously, the PDO remains highly relevant and is aligned with the World Bank and borrower’s current strategies. The rating for relevance of PDO is Substantial.
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)
25. As indicated earlier, the PDO remained unchanged, while there were changes to the outcome indicators as part of the restructurings. However, a split assessment of the PDO is not feasible, because the original outcome indicators were not measured during early implementation. The values of corridor-specific indicators (especially ridership) for the original design and subsequent implementation were not comparable because of the changes in the corridors selected. Therefore, this Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) assesses efficacy based on the achievement of the stated outcome, as measured by the indicators in the M&E framework after the second restructuring.
26. The project applied a comprehensive approach of addressing urban transport needs along with TDM policies to enhance mobility for the citizens of Wuhan in a safe, integrated, and environmentally sustainable manner. The efficacy evaluation is organized around the five elements of the PDO as mentioned in paragraph 8 and is based on the M&E framework results, supplemented by evidence obtained from project documents, secondary sources, field visits, and stakeholder interviews.
Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome
PDO Element 1: Enhance mobility within the central area of Wuhan
5 Sum4All is a global multi-stakeholder partnership with a commitment to speak with one coherent voice and act collectively to implement the Sustainable Development Goals and transform the transport sector. The goal is to achieve sustainable mobility. That is
• Universal access. Connect all people, including women, and communities to economic and social opportunities; • Efficient. Optimize the predictability, reliability, and cost effectiveness of mobility; • Safe. Drastically reduce fatalities, injuries, and crashes; and • Green. Minimize the environmental footprint of mobility (greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions and noise and air
pollution). 6 World Bank and Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China. 2014. Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18865. 7 Capital increase requirements paragraph 32: The World Bank Graduation Policy applies to countries with a gross national income per capita above the graduation discussion income threshold (US$6,795 in 2017), the ability to access external capital markets on reasonable terms, and progress in establishing key institutions for economic and social development.
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27. The project improved mobility within Wuhan’s central area through ICM and better PT, as shown by the achievements of PDO Indicator 1 (increase in PT modal share) and PDO Indicator 4 (average peak-hour travel time by bus). By installing on-street priority for buses on two corridors and constructing sidewalks, bike lanes, and bus lanes within the same right-of-way, mobility for citizens in Wuhan improved. With the separation of NMT, buses, and general traffic, buses run faster with more passengers. The project intervention has also focused the attention of Wuhan on the needs of bus passengers, leading to the allocation of land for project-financed bus depots and terminals that are essential to facilitate an increase in the service quality of bus transport. This outcome is particularly important, because the average daily PT trips rose to 7.3 million (4.1 million bus trips per day and 3.2 million metro trips per day), accounting for 61 percent of all motorized trips made by citizens in 2018, compared with 52.8 percent in 2011.8
28. The PT modal share increased as targeted from 31 percent to 35 percent on Hanyang Avenue and from 27 percent to 31 percent on Heping Avenue during project implementation (see table 5). Increasing the PT modal share in a context of growing motorization of over 10 percent per year9 and urban expansion is a major achievement of the project.
29. The project procured and installed a state-of-art area traffic signal system, which improved traffic flows. Bus priority traffic signals reduced bus delays at intersections, and the overhead cameras on bus priority lanes ensured buses’ right-of-way during peak hours. These ITS innovations also contributed to the decrease in average bus travel times, as shown in table 5. On the Heping Avenue Section, a 5.7 percent reduction during peak hours in the average bus travel time (from 35 to 33 minutes) was achieved, which is less than the objective of a 14 percent (five-minute) reduction. On Hanyang Avenue, the target of a 16.7 percent (four-minute) reduction was achieved. Although this is only a modest reduction, it is a major achievement if one considers that the current metro construction is blocking several lanes of traffic, including the bus priority lanes, in most sections of Heping Avenue and parts of Hanyang Avenue. Once the city has restored the PT corridors after the completion of the metro stations, a further reduction in travel times could be expected.
Table 4. Project Indicators for Enhanced Mobility in Wuhan
Project Output Baseline Value (2008)
Actual Data (2018)
Target Value
I PT modal share 1 Heping Avenue (%) 27 31 31 2 Hanyang Avenue (%) 31 35 (13% bus, 22% metro) 35 II Average travel time of buses at peak hours 1 Heping Avenue (minutes) 35 33 30 2 Hanyang Avenue (minutes) 24 20 20 III Percentage of bus stops on PT corridors with enhanced accessibility for vulnerable users 1 Heping Avenue (%) 76.5 93 93 2 Hanyang Avenue (%) 56.3 100 100
30. The construction of support facilities and bus terminals will increase the efficiency of bus operations. Once they are in operation, these terminals will serve eight bus routes with 194 buses. The 8 http://hb.sina.com.cn/news/b/2018-12-14/detail-ihqackac4288995.shtml. 9 Feasibility Study Report for Traffic Congestion Charging in Wuhan City.
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installation of bicycle parking close to bus stops facilitates transfers between modes and helps increase PT passenger flow. The intermediate indicator for bus stops on PT corridors with enhanced accessibility for vulnerable users was met (93 percent on Heping Avenue and 100 percent on Hanyang Avenue). In addition, due to the learning experience from the two project-financed bus corridors, Wuhan’s replication of the ICM approach in other corridors of the city has demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach. A total of 30 new bus lanes, for a total of 120 km, were opened to traffic in May 2016. By November 2018, the number of bus lanes increased to 50, for a total of 430 km.
Figure 2. Bus Priority Corridors and Bus Terminals
Bus Priority Corridor - Heping Avenue
Bus Priority Corridor - Hanyang Avenue
Tianshunyuan Bus Terminal
Sanjintan Bus Terminal
Source: borrower’s ICR
PDO Element 2: Enhance mobility to the central area of Wuhan10
10 The analysis of mobility to central areas is limited to travel by private cars given the scope of the PT corridors being within the central area of Wuhan and the fact that the two terminals are not interchanges of bus routes serving outer areas.
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31. The city remains congested even with about 130 cars per 1,000 population and 224 km of urban expressways. In 2010, Wuhan had 61 intersections with very large traffic volumes (congested); by 2014 it had 125.11 By the end of 2018, the total number of private motor vehicles in Wuhan increased to 3.12 million compared with only 0.9 million at the end of 2009.
32. In this context, the achievements of the project in reducing travel time for car passengers is remarkable. Project interventions have shortened travel times of residents from peripheral towns to the main urban area, as measured by PDO Indicator 3: Average peak-hour travel time on Jiefang Avenue (Huangpu Road to Dibian Road), on JAE (Dibian Road to the Third Ring Road), and on the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road. The target values have been met or exceeded on all three road sections financed under the project, as shown in table 6.
Table 5. Average Travel Time on RI Sections During Peak Hours
Average Travel Time on RI Sections at Peak Hours
Baseline Value (2008)
(minutes)
Actual Data (2018)
(minutes)
Target Value
(minutes)
Reduction in Travel Time (%)
1 Jiefang Avenue (Huangfu Road-Dibian Road)
45 30 35 33.33
2 JAE (Dibian Road-Third Ring Road)
11 5 5 54.55
3 Second Ring Road-Shuidong Section
22 5 15 77.27
33. Project interventions comprised the rehabilitation, upgrading, and construction of three road sections, including elements that facilitate the movement of PT units along those links, as well as bicycle and pedestrian facilities along the roads. A total of 13.29 km of roads were constructed, slightly less than the target of 13.65 km; the difference is due to a 360 m railway underpass on Jiefang Avenue, which is expected to be completed by the railway authority in 2020. The postponed implementation of this railway underpass section does not affect traffic on the JAE and therefore does not affect the achievement of the PDO. The installation of river-crossing traffic monitoring systems on the Third Ring Road under Component 4 (such as a video surveillance system, electronic information display boards, an automated weigh-in-motion system, and a trunk optical cable transmission system) support the safety and smoothness of river-crossing traffic to central areas of Wuhan. Achievement of the intermediate indicator for the installation of traffic management systems on four Yangtze River bridges and three Hanjiang River bridges—the length of each road section—was 100 percent.
34. The reduction in travel times on these key road links is of strategic importance for new urban development in Wuhan. The construction of the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road has improved the traffic environment of the eastern part of Wuchang and promoted the economic development of areas along the route by meeting the need for rapid collection and distribution of river-crossing traffic on the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge. The construction of the Shuidong Road relieved the river-crossing traffic flow of the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge at the south bank and shortened travel times from Linjiang Avenue on the Second Ring Road to the Heping Avenue area. The construction of the JAE has enhanced traffic connection between the downtown area and the Second Ring Road, Third Ring Road, and Huangpi District, thus relieving the pressure on through traffic. In addition to strengthening traffic accessibility between 11 WTDSRI (Wuhan Transport Development and Strategy Research Institute). 2015. Annual Report Transportation Development for 2014.
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the downtown area and peripheral districts in Wuhan, the JAE is especially important for the development of Wuhan Changjiang New Town because a 1 km road section of the JAE is located there.
Figure 3. Road Sections
Jiefang Avenue Extension
Second Ring Road Shuidong Section
Shuidong Road Ground
Source: borrower’s ICR
PDO Element 3: In a safe manner
35. RS was increased through a mix of infrastructure, equipment, education, and enforcement activities and was measured by PDO Indicator 2 (Annual number of fatalities). The project developed the city’s ITS for traffic management comprising the procurement of equipment for the traffic control center, signalizing intersections, and mid-block pedestrian crossings. Traffic safety education measures within the Second Ring Road included the upgrading of video and audio systems in the traffic command center and the provision of teaching materials for traffic safety and education. The project team introduced the concept of physical channelization over road markings, and mid-block signals over unsignalized zebra crossings, to enhance RS. The integration of RS and PT measures on the corridors, through the monitoring of illegal occupancy of bus lanes, a bus priority signal control system, bus lane signs, and RS education and public awareness campaigns, contributes to increased traffic safety.
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Figure 4. Wuhan Traffic Management Bureau Traffic Command Center
Source: borrower’s ICR
36. During the construction period (2015–2017), the fatality rate increased slightly on two of the four corridors (Hanyang and Baishazhou Avenues) but decreased substantially by more than half, from 22 to 10 fatalities toward the end of the project, exceeding the target value of 18. RS corridors introduced by the project are currently being promoted on several roads in Wuhan and show the sustainability of the approach. The outputs exceeded all three intermediate results indicators (shown in table 7).
Table 6. Project Indicators for RS
RS Corridor Baseline Value (2008)
Actual Data (2018) Target Value Target
Achieved I Number of intersections with traffic signals with non-conflicting pedestrian phase 1 Heping Avenue 3.0 22.0 19.0 Yes 2 Hanyang Avenue 4.0 8.0 10.0 No 3 Xudong Street/Yangtze River No.
2 Bridge 0.0 5.0 2.0 Yes
4 Baishazhou Avenue 0.0 13.0 7.0 Yes II Number of unsignalized zebra crossings converted to signalize non-conflicting
37. Additional qualitative evidence for the achievement of this PDO element was drawn from an interview with the traffic police responsible for the RS component. The representatives greatly valued the project’s technical assistance, specifically the overseas study tours to Japan, Republic of Korea, and Spain,
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which provided a springboard for developing ITS in the city. This is further developed in the follow-up project in Wuhan (WITDP). The Wuhan traffic police also greatly valued the challenging technical discussions with the World Bank on traffic management. They contributed to changing the traffic police’s thinking on traffic management to include the integration of civil works, such as junction channelization, with on-street equipment (such as traffic signals); traffic management facilities for pedestrians, nonmotorized vehicles, and motorized vehicles; and RS considerations. The project developed and showcased a targeted approach to RS through the RS component which comprised the ‘Three Es’—Engineering, Education, and Enforcement—on targeted corridors.
Figure 5.Road Sections
Fanhu Road
Qingnian Road
Source: borrower’s ICR
PDO Element 4: Environmentally sustainable mobility
38. High-quality public transit and multimodal integration contributed to an environmentally sustainable transport system. In addition, ITS, such as Area Traffic Control (ATC), which automatically adjusts traffic signal timings within a large urban area based on real-time traffic information in combination with real-time passenger information, significantly improved the capacity and quality of existing bus services as well as vehicle flow, and thus reduced air pollution and cut GHG emissions. The upgrading of urban roads relieves traffic congestion by raising the operating speed of motor vehicles (within RS informed maximum speed limits), thus reduced vehicle emissions and improved ambient air quality in the central area.
39. In the second restructuring, ‘PDO Indicator 6: Wuhan City develops a strategy for environmentally friendly construction, maintenance, and operation of urban mobility infrastructure’ was added. The strategy includes a manual to be used in future civil works for mobility projects. This manual was approved by the Project Management Office (PMO) in 2019. In addition, the indicator is related to the results of the study titled ‘Study on Intelligent Information Systems Operation and Maintenance’, which will help WMG make better use of transport infrastructure by applying ITS and smart mobility principles. Making better use of the existing assets is environmentally friendly, because it saves on building additional infrastructure by making more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. The study led to the World Bank agreeing to finance the WITDP, which is implementing many of this strategy’s recommendations.
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40. Several project studies have helped shift Wuhan toward more sustainable transportation, including the following:
• Definition and adoption of a systematic parking pricing policy and a hierarchical parking zone system. Based on a study financed by the Wuhan Urban Transport Project (WUTP), Wuhan restarted the implementation of on-street parking fees as of November 1, 2016. The new policy is being consulted upon, indicating a shift away from reactive parking strategy. In the WITDP, smart parking systems are now being implemented in a more comprehensive way.
• Nonmotorized vehicle study. This study report includes construction guidelines to standardize the planning, construction, and management of nonmotorized vehicle transportation infrastructure in the main urban areas of Wuhan.
• Traffic congestion charging feasibility. This report lays the foundation for Wuhan to implement a traffic congestion charging policy, including measures and their possible impact on traffic congestion and the pricing policy for parking.
41. A remaining challenge is to ensure that private automobile users fully pay the costs they impose on cities. If the recommendations from the congestion charging study (which include parking management) mentioned earlier are implemented, a further modal shift to PT could be expected beyond the targeted PT corridors. There is early evidence of a shift toward restricting car use.
PDO Element 5: Integrated Mobility
42. Within the scope of this project, integrated mobility was achieved through the physical integration of different modes of urban transport, such as metro, bus, and NMT. At appraisal, the bus system operated completely independently of the rail line, and there was no integration of fares, schedules, or physical facilities. The World Bank ensured that the design of the bus lanes was integrated with other travel modes and metro stations. This integration is crucial considering the rapid metro development in Wuhan. At the end of 2018, the total length of urban rail was 354.6 km (up from only 10 km at the time of project appraisal), with a ridership of 1.04 billion trips per year, accounting for 41.9 percent of total trips by PT modes.
43. The outcome indicator for integrated mobility is ‘PDO Indicator 5: Wuhan city develops an integrated public transport strategy’. This refers to the Strategic Study on the Institutional and Management Framework for Wuhan’s Urban Transport Integration that helped prepare the WITDP, which will carry out part of its recommendations. It contributes to implementation readiness and enhanced capacity in Wuhan for the integration of different transport modes with the support of ITS.
44. The key to successful and sustainable PT in the medium term is the quality and level of integration—operational, institutional, fare, and physical—across PT modes. On January 1, 2016, WMG formally implemented the ‘implementation measures for preferential transfer of conventional public transportation’ to reduce citizens’ travel costs and introduce preferential fare payment methods (such as 20 percent discount for card transfer between modes, if paid by smart card).
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45. The project supported many of the building blocks for this integration agenda: the bus route optimization strategy offered guidance to Wuhan on integrating bus routes with metro lines, by placing bus stops close to metro stations to facilitate seamless transfers. PT integration was a centerpiece of the project’s capacity-building activities, including study tours focusing on different elements of this agenda. The project supported a series of workshops and seminars to bring together Chinese and international best practices related to PT integration. The learning experiences and technical discussions enhanced the role played by traffic management and strengthened the traffic information management capability and coordination capability of the Wuhan Traffic Management Bureau. The WITDP will further strengthen transport integration in Wuhan.
Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating
46. In summary, at closing, the project fully achieved the PDO and met or exceeded the targets of all PDO outcome indicators. The successful implementation of the ICM approach has created a demonstration impact, which has in turn generated replication of the approach in other corridors of the city. The overall rating for efficacy is therefore Substantial.
C. EFFICIENCY
Assessment of Efficiency and Rating
47. At appraisal in 2009, an economic analysis was conducted for the physical investment components assuming a project life of 20 years with a 12 percent discount rate. The benefits quantified were time savings for pedestrians, bicycle riders, and bus and car passengers; savings in VOCs; savings in road accident costs; and avoided carbon emissions. The resulting net present value (NPV) was US$138 million, and the project’s economic internal rate of return (EIRR) was 15.3 percent. The combination of all benefits resulted in total yearly benefits of about US$110 million in 2015 (year of original project closure). Savings due to reductions in travel time comprised the largest share of project savings (52 percent).
48. The ICR team conducted an ex post economic analysis of the project, reproducing the original analysis but accounting for the changes from two restructurings; higher transaction costs of the project as well as today’s travel and demographic features (see annex 4 for further details). The EIRR is 17.28 percent, resulting in an NPV of US$296.9 million. The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is 1.71. The sensitivity analysis assumes a 20 percent increase in total costs and a 20 percent decrease in total benefits. The EIRR of the project as a whole decreases to 13.19 percent under the strict assumption.
49. The difference between the estimated EIRR in the PAD and ICR is mainly due to the RI component, which achieved much better results compared to those foreseen in the PAD. The M&E indicators show that peak-hour travel time along project roads is shorter than the target value, especially for the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road. According to the Wuhan Statistical Yearbooks, private car ownership by Wuhan residents increased faster than predicted by an annual average of 19 percent from 2009 to 2018. These changes indicate that in the ‘without-project’ scenario, a significantly higher proportion of residents would choose private cars for daily trips, compared to that foreseen in the 2009 PAD; the traffic congestion of project roads would be much worse in the ‘without-project’ scenario than predicted.
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Table 7. Comparison of Economic Analysis Results at Appraisal and Completion
50. Design and implementation. A key feature of the World Bank involvement in this project was enhanced traffic management, leading to safer facilities for pedestrians and cyclists (including innovations such as mid-block pedestrian signals, junction channelization, signal phasing, and safe bicycle lane barriers) and the piloting of on-street priority for buses on the key corridors to increase the efficiency of bus operations. In addition, the river-crossing monitoring system on the Third Ring Road financed under the TDM component ensured smoother traffic and quick clearance of incidents, thus alleviating congestion on river crossings. The RS and TDM components were completed on schedule and facilitated better coordination with relevant municipal agencies. The ITS equipment and capacity built provided a strong base for significant further development under the WITDP. The RI component reduced traffic bottlenecks by financing two key road segments that provide access to the city’s center: (a) Shuidong Section (and complementary roads along this section), which was the last missing link of the Second Ring Road and (b) rehabilitation and extension of Jiefang Avenue, one of the important radial avenues between the Second and Third Ring Roads. However, this component, together with the two PT terminals were the main reasons why the project was delayed by 32 months.
51. Project implementation was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory from October 2013 to November 2015 and required a significant extension to complete all planned activities, leading to additional supervision and transaction costs. The original total project cost was estimated at US$610.71 million, while the completion cost was US$926.8 million, a 52 percent increase. The construction cost of the road sections borne by the Government was higher than initially estimated, due to higher land acquisition and resettlement costs that increased by 183.6 percent (mostly because of the increase in real estate prices in Wuhan in particular and in China in general). Land acquisition and resettlement costs for the PT and RI component represent 82 percent of the total project cost increase but can mainly be attributed to the economic growth in China, which increased the value of land. Construction and installation costs increased only by 3.18 percent. However, this figure must be contrasted with the reduction in the number of PT and RS corridors. Once this reduction is taken into account, the real increase is much higher, but is difficult to quantity.
52. In conclusion, the Wuhan Second Urban Transport Project (WSUTP) successfully closed on August 31, 2018, with 100 percent disbursement of the World Bank loan. The overall project cost was higher than originally estimated, and the implementation period was extended twice for a total of 32 months. However, the EIRR was modestly higher at completion. On balance, the efficiency of the project is rated Modest.
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
53. The relevance of the objective is Substantial because the project was aligned with the country context and the World Bank strategy. Efficacy is Substantial because the project achieved its PDO and met
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the outcome and output indicators. Moreover, the MOT awarded Wuhan City the honorary title of ‘Transit Metropolis’ in 2018 due to its exemplary efforts to improve PT and the Wuhan PMO actively disseminates its achievements on traffic management and RS for other municipalities. The results of the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) analysis reflect improvements that are tangible for Wuhan residents and that allow Wuhan City to advance in a sustainable transport path. However, efficiency was Modest because project implementation suffered from significant delays and cancellation of some activities. Overall, the outcome of the project is rated Moderately Satisfactory.
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY)
Gender
54. The project did not explicitly incorporate a gender dimension in its design or implementation, and thus did not include any actions or indicators to specifically target the mobility needs of women. However, an effort was made to understand women’s main concerns on the resettlement process through a study titled ‘Women’s Role and Voice in Resettlement and Life Recovery’. The objective of this pilot was to empower women in displaced families to participate more actively in decision making related to livelihood restoration programs. In general, women make more trips in PT and therefore benefit strongly from improved PT and RS.
Institutional Strengthening
55. As institutional strengthening is a core achievement of this project, the major activities have been documented and analyzed in the efficacy evaluation. The complex, multifaceted project approach brought the various agencies that provide urban transport services in the city together to work toward an integrated transport vision that reflects the needs of all citizens of Wuhan. The project catalyzed more systematic and sustained cooperation between different agencies, in particular between the traffic police and the construction bureau.
56. International study tours were conducted on subjects such as integrated institutional management of urban transport modes, urban transport resource system optimization, urban area RS systems, comprehensive urban transport resource planning, regional PT and land-use planning, and NMT traffic improvement. In addition, domestic study tours and trainings were completed on subjects such as project financial management, resettlement policy and implementation, procurement, PT priority corridor design, environmental management of construction sites, ITS, urban center parking area development, and multimodal interchange construction and management.
57. All technical assistance and advisory contracts were implemented, and training was provided to many professionals in the PMO and other relevant municipal agencies (1,200 person/days in capacity-building measures). The successful completion of studies and the dissemination of their recommendations, as mentioned in Section B, are significant because institutional development can often be difficult to implement. In Wuhan, the benefits are well recognized and can be seen in the enhanced expertise of personnel in agencies such as the PMO, the traffic police, the Bus Company, design institutes, and the Urban Road and Bridge Management Company.
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Mobilizing Private-Sector Financing
Not applicable.
Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity
58. The project was not explicitly designed to have a distributional impact on the poor and no indicator was designed to assess the project’s impact on low-income groups. In general, an improvement in mobility means greater possibility to travel and access opportunities such as jobs. Improving mobility is key to making the urban labor market work better, particularly for the bottom 40 percent. Congestion disproportionately hurts bus users who tend to have lower incomes than car users. Poor people also walk and use standard and electric bicycles to commute; they will therefore benefit specifically from improvements in RS and NMT facilities. The highest burden of injuries and fatalities is borne disproportionately by poor people as pedestrians, bus and minibus passengers, and cyclists.
59. According to the borrower’s ICR, the project’s overall effect on local residents’ income is positive. Wuhan Municipality has formulated a comprehensive policy framework on land acquisition and resettlement in which affected residents are provided compensation in the form of cash payments and are ensured entitlement to social security (that in many cases led to a rise in their economic status). The project’s construction activities will enhance the transport infrastructure in areas that lagged previously, thus saving trip time and travel costs for local residents, with a positive effect on improving their quality of life. However, with the improvement of the traffic system, regional traffic volumes could increase together with traffic noise and air pollution, leading to a negative impact on residents along the route. Therefore, relevant institutions should reinforce the awareness of environmental protection and carry out various environmental protection measures.
Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts
Not applicable.
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION
60. Project preparation. The initial investment proposal presented by Wuhan in 2007 focused mainly on road infrastructure. However, the World Bank worked with the municipal authorities to broaden the scope to include other dimensions (traffic management, RS, PT, and institutional development) that could address traffic congestion problems in a more sustainable manner. In addition, a public participatory process involving project-affected persons, road users, and neighborhood groups guided the designs of project components. The inclusion of a stand-alone RS component (a direct outcome of a technical assistance study under the WUTP) caters to the needs of pedestrians and cyclists, as do the pedestrian facilities constructed along road sections.
61. Adequacy of project concept and design. The World Bank introduced the ICM approach in Wuhan, focusing support from the loan on full-scale interventions along a discrete number of corridors. The ICM approach concentrates on improving the overall service quality for all users in a selected corridor,
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considering all phases (construction and operations) and aspects (traffic management, ITS, RS, road construction, and enforcement). The results of the studies conducted under the WUTP were taken into account in the selection of the key corridors and the scale of the design. A lesson learned from the first project was that, because of its rather limited design, the existing PT pilot bus priority scheme did not achieve the full benefits of bus priority schemes. The scheme must be part of a route of seamless integrated corridors that provide not only bus lanes but also designs that consider physical separation of the lanes from general traffic, adequate bus bays and bus stops, and signal priority at intersections, as emphasized by the second project. Key measures for the ICM approach included in the project are
• PT: service, operations and management, infrastructure, and vehicles;
• NMT: bikeways, sidewalks, better lighting, and safe crossings; and
• Traffic and parking management: pedestrian shelters, parking enforcement, and traffic calming.
62. Assessment of risks. The overall risk was assessed as Moderate. The PAD underestimated the risk associated with the implementation of some key elements of the PT component, mainly the shift in priority to metro construction. Even though the acceleration of metro construction was identified as a risk, it was neither incorporated into the project design nor were mitigation measures proposed. The risk that during implementation the Government would focus only or mostly on road expansion and not enough on other elements of the agreed package was identified during appraisal, but no mitigation measures were incorporated. The way in which the LA was crafted allowed flexibility in the PT components because the names and number of corridors were not mentioned. This allowed the client to drop elements from the PT elements while keeping the RI component intact because the names of the roads appear only for the RI component and not for the PT and RS component. Fiduciary and procurement risks were adequately identified. The risk of deficiency in counterpart funding, which was one of the main issues during implementation, was identified but with weak mitigation measures, even though it was already an issue in the WUTP.
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION
63. Rapid urban development and changing sector strategy. During the preparation for the midterm review (MTR) in 2013, it became clear that the construction plans for the new metro lines and for the First, Second, and Third Ring Roads were continuously evolving. Investment in traffic infrastructure construction grew by 30 percent annually from 2002 to 2012. Over 93 percent of the investment in PT was spent on rail transit. These construction projects were outside the PMO’s control, but they affected the PT/RS corridors of the WSUTP and required design changes on the RS and PT corridors. The change in the urban transport strategy and plan eventually caused the dropping of several PT and RS corridors because they overlapped with the newly planned metro lines. The rapid expansion of the metro network led to some completed bus corridors becoming construction sites again. For example, parts of the bus priority corridor on Heping Avenue overlapped the later planned metro route, thus causing the completed bus priority stations and bus stations to be excavated again for metro construction. However, the corridor will be restored after metro construction is completed. The large metro investment program also diverted resources from the RI component and led to delays. In addition, the creation of a scenic road along the Jiefang Avenue and the construction of a viaduct along Xinhua and Youyi Streets reduced the number of potential corridors that could be developed as bus corridors. The World Bank demonstrated flexibility in
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agreeing to significant adjustments to the project design to adapt to these changing circumstances and facilitate efficient integration between bus services and metro, with bus services serving as feeders to connect key residential, commercial, and other areas of interest.
64. Escalating land acquisition and resettlement costs caused by rapid real estate development. The main reasons for the increase in total project costs were the rise in land prices and policy changes in Wuhan that affected land availability for PT terminals and interchanges. As a result, the WMG was not able to provide adequate, timely financing for some of the project components, especially for the JAE, which required the most land acquisition and resettlement because of its alignment through several built-up areas. After the restructuring in June 2015, the WMG allocated sufficient counterpart funds and the implementation of the JAE could be completed before project closure.
65. Environmental factors. In the summer of 2016, because of serious rains and flooding in Wuhan, part of the JAE contract was affected, and project progress was delayed for four months. In April 2017, because of geological reasons, construction progress of the bridge part in the JAE and the elevated road ramp connecting the Third Ring Road were affected.
66. New national regulations on municipal finance have led to tougher financial conditions for Chinese municipalities. The municipal financial analysis conducted for appraisal underestimated the rapid growth of urban infrastructure investment in Wuhan after 2009 and could not foresee the national government’s recent policy change. The New Budget Law of 2014 stopped further municipal financing through instruments guaranteed by local governments, previously a common practice, and instead instituted market discipline. However, because of the project teams’ efforts, the WMG declared Jiefang Avenue as a strategic priority project leading to the allocation of the required counterpart funds and its completion within the extended project implementation period.
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)
M&E Design
67. The initial M&E framework was poorly designed. Some originally proposed PDO indicators such as average bus ridership and bus speeds suffered from poor attribution to the project or an inability to be assessed during implementation, thus eliminating their use as a feedback mechanism for implementation. Bus ridership was negatively affected by the new metro construction, and thus did not serve as a good indicator for enhanced mobility because that also increases if more people have access to metro service. Other indicators suffered from a lack of disaggregation. For example, the PDO’s ‘fatality reduction’ indicator should have included both the annual number of fatalities and the injuries on the corridors, to better evaluate RS on the corridor. The indicator for modal share was highly mismatched with the scope of the project, which focused on key corridors and not the entire urban area of Wuhan. Some of the intermediate indicators served primarily as a checklist for project implementation, because they were structured as ‘yes or no’ questions. They did not allow the tracking of the implementation of project studies’ recommendations. Moreover, indicators on social aspects, such as the number of female beneficiaries or the presence of low-income groups along the corridors, were missing. Other relevant
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indicators for monitoring the project’s environmental sustainability could have been included, such as air quality measurements, CO2 emissions, and NMT share.
M&E Implementation
68. The M&E framework was revised in the 2015 and 2017 restructurings to include outcome indicators for all five elements of the PDO. Modified performance monitoring indicators were introduced for all subcomponents, reflecting the changes in each component. For example, PDO Indicator 1 (“average bus speed”) was changed to “travel time by bus” along PT corridors to measure PT performance. All these changes improved the Results Framework considerably, but additional indicators to measure accessibility improvements, achievements in traffic management, or environmental outcomes could have been introduced at this stage. For example, targeted integrated person-based mobility indicators could have been used, such as door-to-door PT travel times, including walking, waiting, and transferring, for selected origin to destination trips with one or more ends in the corridor.
69. The Wuhan Urban Comprehensive Transport Planning and Design Research Institute was responsible for collecting and aggregating Results Framework data for the project. It provided updates throughout project implementation and reported on project works and indicator status twice a year. Some of the PAD’s original monitoring indicators were not easily measurable and the PMO was not able to gather data to evaluate and report on implementation progress. As a result, reporting on this project was rather retrospective at the beginning. Subsequently, a dedicated M&E specialist was contracted to support the PMO in diligently and regularly reporting on the adjusted indicators (see section above, Revised PDO Indicators).
M&E Utilization
70. The significant adjustments after the MTR allowed the project team and implementing agency to use the M&E system to track the progress of outputs and the achievement of outcomes.
Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E
71. Due to the abovementioned shortcomings in the original Results Framework, the rating for M&E is Modest. However, the major improvements during the restructurings must be acknowledged.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
72. Environment. The Environmental Assessment (EA) category was rated ‘B’ at appraisal and the Environmental Assessment Safeguards Policy (OP/BP 4.01) was triggered. The required EA documents (both in English and Chinese) were prepared by the China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co. Ltd. in July 2009 and were found to be satisfactory. The Wuhan Environmental Monitoring Center was contracted to undertake environmental monitoring during the project’s construction period and submitted 13 environmental monitoring reports to the World Bank.
73. On a supervision mission in August 2015, the World Bank learned of a possible flooding risk related to the breaching of the Zhanggong Dike by the JAE; this had not been envisaged in the PAD. The World Bank took appropriate action by conducting due diligence on environmental and social risks in the JAE. The Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), Environmental Impact Assessment, and Environmental Management
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Plan were updated accordingly in 2016 and necessary measures were adopted in project design and implementation, including the following:
• Comparison of two options during project implementation, that is, a viaduct crossing the dike and breaching-through options, with technical details and justifications
• Flood risk analysis, drawing on the ‘Flood Risk Assessment Report on Dike Crossing through Zhanggong Dike and Bridge Crossing Zhujia River of JAE’ (prepared by Hubei Water and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute in January 2013 and approved by Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission and Wuhan Water Resource Authority)
• The current situation and future plans for the Zhujia River and the retirement of Zhanggong Dike
• Mitigation measures adopted in the project design (for example, water gate, road structure, and so on); construction (for example, arrangement of construction within one non-flood season); and operation (for example, water gate maintenance, traffic safety measures, and so on) stages
• Flood emergency response plans for the polder area, with clear explanation of the procedures and responsibilities of the various agencies involved
74. Based on the flood risk assessment, the at-grade JAE road engineering designs were improved to consider flooding. The borrower received all required approvals from the authorities to breach the dike and install flood control guides.
75. For other project aspects, special attention was paid to the design of landscaping and the greening of interchanges, with a green belt along roadsides. A total greening area of 40 ha was included, well outweighing the estimated loss of 15 ha caused by the project.
76. The PMO approved a strategy for environmentally friendly construction, maintenance, and operation of urban mobility infrastructure, which will help ensure proper environmental management of future urban transport projects in Wuhan. The implementation of environmental safeguards measures was generally satisfactory.
77. Social. The project triggered the Involuntary Resettlement Safeguards policy (OP/BP 4.12). The Resettlement Policy Framework and RAP were satisfactorily prepared, in line with local laws and regulations and the World Bank’s policy and were disclosed during project preparation. In line with the RAP’s requirements for independent monitoring of resettlement activities, Wuhan University’s Center for Involuntary Resettlement Research has been conducting ongoing monitoring of the project’s resettlement work and has submitted 16 external monitoring reports on resettlement from January 2011 to July 2018. The project’s resettlement work, which is subproject and district based, is implemented by the acquisition and compensation departments of the district where the subprojects are located. The project involved works scattered throughout the city, with 7 urban residential communities and 21 suburban villages being affected in various degrees by land acquisition and house demolition. The project included three main resettlement sites:
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(a) Shuidong Section. All displaced families from the Shuidong Section received full compensation and have been receiving annual village royalty payments from village business profits. These families also have a new source of income from apartment rental because, on average, each affected family received several apartments. Every family also received social security and medical insurance, as they became urban citizens.
(b) Jiefang Avenue Section. All displaced families were in an area that was developed in the city. The displaced families previously stayed in small apartments; some families included laid-off workers, and some were under the urban poverty line. They expected to use the opportunities to have a better standard of living and resolve their families’ long-standing issues. The resettlement works took over six years until every displaced family was relocated satisfactorily to their new apartments.
(c) JAE Section. Huangpi District was in charge of the construction of the Nanhu Village resettlement site for the works at the JAE. This large resettlement site, with 1,500 apartments, was not only for the relocation of displaced families affected by the World Bank-supported project but also for three large municipal-funded projects in Huangpi District. The land approval, design, and urban planning of the resettlement site were delayed for over three years because the Nanhu Village area was part of a new city called Yangtze River Eco-city. This city was approved by the State Council in 2016 and all previous land-use planning had to be renewed. Without further land-use approval for the Nanhu resettlement site from the new authorities, resettlement site facilities, including electricity power, drinking water and gas supply, could not be connected to the main pipelines. A plant to treat wastewater from the new city is still outstanding.
78. The RAP was updated to reflect the changes in the original resettlement plan due to the acquisition and demolition policy of the Nanhu Village Interchange Subproject of the JAE, with a demolition area of 116,700 m². This led the project to become the largest scale resettlement among the World Bank’s transport projects in China at the time. Overall, the project affected 1,055 families (with 3,265 people) and 40 enterprises. The project required 31 ha of land and nearly 300,000 m2 of structures. The steps taken and detailed information are comprehensively addressed by the borrower in a separate resettlement ICR. The World Bank’s grievance redress mechanism did not receive any complaints from citizens.
79. Ongoing resettlement. To speed up outstanding resettlement in Nanhu Village, the World Bank sought support from the WMG. In a letter dated May 5, 2019, the WMG urged the Huangpi District Government to complete the Nanhu resettlement as soon as possible. Huangpi District has been and is paying the residents the stipulated transition fee. The residents, who are aware of the delay and their entitlements, have expressed their understanding of the situation. The PMO and the World Bank agreed that resettlement monitoring will be undertaken every three months and that all families will be relocated to their new housing by June 2020. The World Bank will monitor the progress and compliance of the resettlement of the Nanhu Village families to permanent housing as part of the WITDP. The final World Bank supervision mission in March 2019 concluded that the social safeguards are Satisfactory.
80. Financial management. The project’s financial management system was satisfactory and has been continuously maintained at an acceptable level throughout project implementation. As the second World Bank-financed urban transport project in Wuhan, the PMO and Project Implementation Units (PIUs)
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have gained experience and have become familiar with the World Bank’s general financial management requirements and disbursement procedures. Because of efficient coordination among the concerned agencies during the midterm restructuring, the World Bank loan was fully disbursed before the loan closing date. There was some staff turnover in the financial team, but the key accountant has remained in place. The required interim financial reports and audit reports were submitted on time. All audit reports were issued with unqualified (clean) audit opinions. However, the auditors detected some internal controls issues in contract management, project management, and resettlement.
81. Due to the Budget Law revision and enhanced management of government debt during project implementation, the PMO faced difficulties in mobilizing counterpart funds, and planned counterpart funds of government appropriations were replaced by domestic borrowing. The lessons learned are reflected in the WITDP.
82. Procurement. Overall procurement performance was satisfactory, with no substantial deviations from the World Bank’s procurement policies and requirements. All procurement was completed before loan closing. The PMO procurement team comprised staff with adequate multilateral development bank procurement experience and played a key role in managing project procurement according to policy requirements and provided hands-on support to less-experienced staff from the respective PIUs. Drawing upon the lessons learned from the WUTP, a number of training courses were conducted to strengthen the Wuhan PMO procurement capacity.
83. The project received one complaint for contract SRD2.4/SPT3.2D concerning several restrictions on bid participation. The World Bank found parts of this complaint to be valid and asked the PMO to modify the bidding documents, along with a bid opening extension. The complaint was resolved to the satisfaction of the World Bank, and there was no recurrence of similar issues. Because works contracts accounted for a large part of the procurement activities, contract management was especially important to ensure timely contract implementation within budget. However, there were some large-value variations. For example, contract SRD2.4/SPT3.2d had a variance of about 40 percent, while contract SRD1.7 had a variance of about 17 percent. These variations were caused by design changes, quantity changes, missing items in the bill of quantities, and resettlement-related delays. Except for the JAE road bid 4 (bridge), which took 183 days to obtain the World Bank’s ‘no objection’ for the bid documents, approval time for other contracts was reasonable.
C. BANK PERFORMANCE
Quality at Entry
84. The World Bank ensured that the project objectives were aligned with the existing Government priorities and the CPS. The project benefitted from detailed technical studies completed under the WUTP, which enabled optimal design of the subsequent project. For example, the design of the RS component is a direct outcome of a technical assistance study under the WUTP which identified high risk corridors in and around the Second Ring Road. Technical preparation was complemented by an independently supervised three-stage effort consisting of focus groups, open meetings, and questionnaires that sought to obtain public inputs on the project design and target the needs of vulnerable groups. The participatory process enabled the city agencies to provide inputs in the project design, and thus gain the acceptance of the city’s leadership.
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85. Environmental and social safeguards were prepared with reasonable diligence, with the exception of the lack of inclusion of the abovementioned Zhanggong Dike. However, two restructurings (see Section A) were required, indicating several omissions during preparation, such as the impact of metro expansion and resettlement requirements. The project’s Results Framework should have been designed with greater detail (see Section IV.A for details) and was almost entirely revised during implementation.
Quality of Supervision
86. Project documentation was filed appropriately, with Implementation Status and Results Reports, Aide Memoires, and MTR completed as expected. During project implementation, the World Bank closely monitored implementation progress through frequent implementation support missions (27 altogether) over the eight years of project implementation. Discussions and mission findings were properly documented in the Aide Memoires, and course correction actions were taken on time. The World Bank offered extensive support on engineering designs; procurement; and environmental, social, and financial management. For example, after identifying the presence of a dike in 2015, the World Bank decided to conduct a due diligence analysis to understand the background leading to the breaching of the Zhanggong Dike and understand the risk posed by flooding of the area, as essential elements for crafting a strategy to address this issue (see section on environmental safeguards). Technical advisory support provided by the World Bank and its consultants was useful and well appreciated by the client, as indicated in the borrower’s ICR.
87. Issues identified in the MTR were addressed through the restructurings. At MTR, the project was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory and the World Bank and the PMO started a dialogue on restructuring the project. The restructuring, however, was only approved in 2015 because the update to the feasibility study report took more than a year and local procedures required approval by several municipal, provincial, and national authorities. In addition, the Country Management Unit and the World Bank worked to make the project politically relevant with the Mayor of Wuhan. As a result, the mayor declared this project as one of his top three priorities and allocated sufficient counterpart funds. The World Bank also responded adequately to the expansion of the metro network. For example, with the development of Metro Line 4 (underground), the original corridor concept under the World Bank project, comprising segregated bus lanes and support infrastructure, was no longer appropriate. Instead, the plan was adapted to facilitate efficient integration between bus services and the metro, with bus services serving as feeders connecting key residential, commercial, and other areas of interest near Hanyang Avenue with the metro system. The intervention also improved sidewalks and NMT infrastructure, which also serve as feeders to the metro. Special facilities for persons with disabilities, such as tactile paths and audible signals, were incorporated in the corridor design.
88. Arrangements for maintenance of project assets. The World Bank team had discussions with the PMO and the project agencies to confirm that appropriate arrangements were in place for operation and maintenance (O&M) of project-financed assets. Wuhan Urban Management Committee functions as the maintenance and operating unit of the two PT priority corridors: Heping Avenue and Hanyang Avenue. The two bus terminals are maintained and operated by the Wuhan Public Transport Group. The Wuhan Traffic Management Bureau formulated measures for maintenance and management of the electronic monitoring system and made specific provisions on the work content and examination of the results of electronic monitoring system maintenance.
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89. Follow-on project. The good cooperation between the World Bank and PMO laid a solid foundation for the preparation and implementation of the follow-on WITDP, which is currently under implementation. It builds on the achievements of the WSUTP, including the key lesson of integrating the different transport modes, while focusing on traffic demand management for better urban development (through the ‘Wuhan City Brain’).
Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
90. Based on the World Bank’s performance in Quality at Entry and Quality of Supervision, the World Bank’s overall performance is rated Moderately Satisfactory.
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
91. According to an evaluation on urban transport by the World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), the main risks to the sustainability of improvements in mobility are related either to incomplete implementation of demand management measures or to the financial unsustainability of the transport system. This underscores the importance of having both supply and demand support to ensure a sustained outcome.
92. For this project, the risk is low on the supply side. The corridor approach adopted in this project demonstrates how to design a sustainable urban transport system through better PT operations and enhanced RS. As mentioned in Section III.A, Wuhan had already replicated this model in other corridors of the city. However, on the demand side there is a risk that the recommendations of the congestion and parking pricing study will not be implemented in the short term. This could limit the benefits of increased investment in transport infrastructure over time.
93. Interviews with key project personnel provided an insight into how Wuhan is already applying lessons from the WSUTP and their experiences with the World Bank in other projects, including the WITDP and the Asian Development Bank-financed projects in Hubei Province. In general, key personnel indicated that the WSUTP implementation had constructive impacts on project management, the use of new technical methodologies, the monitoring of project outcomes, and addressing of social and environmental impacts. The WITDP will also support the improvement of municipal bus operations through the development of integrated ITS solutions. Because of the continuation of the World Bank’s engagement in Wuhan, the risk to the project’s development outcome may be classified as Low.
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
94. The project is a good example of the IEG’s call to maintain and enhance emphasis on ‘sustained transport’ by going beyond the time span of a project’s life cycle toward adopting a more programmatic approach to transport interventions. The first project (WUTP), which was approved in March 2004 and completed in December 2010, comprised investments in traffic management and bus priority measures, road construction, and maintenance designed to promote an integrated package of urban transport measures with ITS at its heart. To demonstrate the operation of the new systems, this second project focused less on area-wide measures and more on integrated PT and RS corridors with a package of ITS, RS, traffic management, and road construction. In 2012, Wuhan applied for a loan to finance the third project (WITDP), which focuses on the development of a city-level comprehensive traffic information system as a platform for traffic information that can integrate, handle, and share data resources from
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different traffic information sources. The road map linking the three projects is consistent: first, experience with ITS has been engendered; second, ITS replication and expertise in better integration have been fostered; and third, the expertise and experience gained in ITS will serve as a springboard to enable better use of data and contribute to Wuhan’s smart city initiatives. In addition, research findings from the WUTP, such as the ‘Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of Wuhan Urban Traffic Development Strategies’, served as guidance for the implementation of the WSUTP.
95. TDM measures are necessary to accommodate changes in rapidly urbanizing environments. Even though the metro system was expanded rapidly during project implementation, the problem of congestion due to rising car ownership remains. TDM covers a myriad of nonmonetary and monetary strategies and measures, such as parking management, congestion charging, and driving restrictions that help reduce congestion. The concept is still relatively new for Chinese cities and faces the challenges of political will and public acceptance. While travelling through Wuhan, one still feels that priority is given to cars. Road tolls on the Third Ring Road have been implemented using electronic toll collection, but tolls on city bridges crossing the Yangtze and Han Rivers have been abolished. The TDM study financed by the WUTP noted that even a package of complementary measures promoting PT and NMT and the use of ITS tools will not be enough to bring about a significant modal shift away from private cars and a slowing of car growth. Therefore, Wuhan and other cities need to commit to controlling car use as a key policy principle. In the short term, PT must be made more attractive through the implementation of bus priority schemes and better modal integration. In the longer term, more restrictive forms of TDM should be accepted. Otherwise, the congestion charging study financed by the project remains just that: a research initiative with no concrete plan for its implementation. More attention should be paid to demand-side measures aimed at responding to rapidly growing mobility demand in an efficient and environmentally sustainable manner. A key measure of TDM is the management of charging for parking. A reasonable parking rate structure, including differences in space, time, and type of parking facility, can guide the balanced and sustainable development of the traffic system. Another measure that is applied in many Chinese cities for controlling the growth rate of cars is through restricting the number of license plates issued each month.
96. The project shows the value of ICM to improve or maintain bus travel times and improve RS, particularly for vulnerable users. ICM improves the sidewalks and lanes for NMT, provides priority for buses, and improves the carriageway used by cars and trucks. ICM is a low-cost intervention that prioritizes sustainable modes—PT by bus, walking, and biking—to attract users. Congestion grows with motorization. Congestion hurts bus users disproportionately because buses cannot maneuver as easily as cars. Yet buses move 20 times or more the number of passengers per unit of road space. Giving an advantage to PT improves the quality of travel for the majority who travel by bus. The project therefore demonstrates that ICM is an approach that other client cities of the World Bank should replicate because these benefits can be realized at a low cost. Coupled with improved land use policies that promote densification, ICM can be a stepping stone to mass transit solutions in the future, such as Bus Rapid Transit, when the demand increases. Because of its success, the same project approach of integrated corridors and RS improvements with ITS is now applied in Anlu, a component of the WITDP.
97. Lessons learned on M&E. Designing a good M&E framework with a detailed description of all indicators and methodology during project preparation, involving related PIUs and M&E consultants early on, and maintaining constant communication and coordination are all crucial elements of M&E. M&E should be an essential aspect in World Bank implementation support missions to facilitate this coordination effort. Other indicators besides travel time are necessary to assess the mobility impact of
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urban transport activities, as mentioned in Section IV.A. Transit users may value service reliability, transfer-free direct connections, and perceived levels of safety more heavily than time. If possible, indicators should be disaggregated to evaluate the impact on the poor, women, and disabled persons. A case study on Wuhan financed by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program also suggests giving greater importance to accessibility, through the use of metrics such as the number of residents who are covered by rapid transit to assess their ability to reach places of work, school, and shopping.
98. Lack of adequate synchronization of resettlement activities with civil works can cause significant time and cost overruns. Because resettlement funds are generally provided by the counterpart, the PMO must ensure that such funds are available and allocated according to the schedule of the implementation plan, so that resettlement work and project construction can advance as planned. The demolition work for the JAE was seriously delayed by lack of counterpart funds and land acquisition problems that led to the project’s delay. A high level of institutional involvement was necessary to provide these funds, which were only provided after the Deputy Mayor assigned strategic importance to the project along the Jiefang Avenue. The PMO needs to have the experience and ability to deal with district governments, because close coordination (with an explicit division of responsibilities among different bodies and implementing agencies) is also necessary.
.
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ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS
A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: Improved mobility within the central area of Wuhan
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
1. Modal share of public transport (bus and metro) on targeted PT corridors
Percentage 29.00 33.00 33.00 33.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
1.1. Heping Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 27.00 31.00 31.00 31.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
1.2. Hanyang Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 31.00 35.00 35.00 35.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Was revised to reflect that impact of project is not on municipal-wide PT, but only on corridors impacted by project: new baseline had to be calculated because only 2 of 4 corridors remained in the project. Baseline and target values that matter are for sub indicators, not for the parent indicator, because the sub-indicators cannot be added up or averaged to result in the value for the parent indicator
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Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
4. Average peak hour travel time by bus along targeted PT corridors
Minutes 29.50 25.00 25.00 26.50
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
4.1 on Heping Avenue (sub-indicator)
Minutes 35.00 30.00 30.00 33.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
4.2 on Hanyang Avenue (sub-indicator)
Minutes 24.00 20.00 20.00 20.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): New indicator added in restructuring to measure travel time on the 2 remaining project corridors. Baseline and target values that matter are for sub indicators, not for the parent indicator, because the sub-indicators cannot be added up or averaged to result in the value for the parent indicator. target value was achieved for Hanyang Av. Heping Avenue was not achieved due to the reduction in road capacity because of the construction of rail transit line 5. Objective/Outcome: Improved mobility to the central area of Wuhan
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
3. Average peak hour travel time on Jiefang Avenue (Huangpu Road to Dibian Road), on Jiefang Avenue Extension (Dibian Road to the 3rd Ring Road), and on the Shuidong Section of the 2nd
Minutes 26.00 18.00 18.00 13.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
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Ring Road.
3.1 on the Shuidong Section of the 2nd Ring Road (sub-indicator)
Minutes 22.00 15.00 15.00 5.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
3.2 on Jiefang Avenue (Huangpu Road to Dibian Road) (sub-indicator)
Minutes 45.00 20.00 35.00 30.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2018 31-May-2018
3.3 on Jiefang Avenue Extension (Dibian Road to the 3rd Ring Road) (sub-indicator)
Minutes 11.00 5.00 5.00 500.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Baseline and target values that matter are for sub indicators, not for the parent indicator, because the sub-indicators cannot be added up or averaged to result in the value for the parent indicator. baseline and end targets were adjusted in restructuring, average of the 3 adds up to 26 and 18 respectively Objective/Outcome: Safe mobility
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
2. Average number of fatalities per year on four Road Safety corridors
Number 22.00 18.00 18.00 10.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): this indicator was overachieved. Fatalities were reduced by over 50%.
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Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
1. Modal share of public transport (bus and metro) on targeted PT corridors
Percentage 29.00 33.00 33.00 33.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
1.1. Heping Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 27.00 31.00 31.00 31.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
1.2. Hanyang Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 31.00 35.00 35.00 35.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Was revised to reflect that impact of project is not on municipal-wide PT, but only on corridors impacted by project: new baseline had to be calculated because only 2 of 4 corridors remained in the project. Baseline and target values that matter are for sub indicators, not for the parent indicator, because the sub-indicators cannot be added up or averaged to result in the value for the parent indicator
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
6. Wuhan City develops a strategy for environmentally friendly construction, maintenance, and operation of urban mobility infrastructure
Yes/No N Y Y Y
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Mar-2019
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Comments (achievements against targets): This Strategy was added in the second restructuring and completed successfully shortly after project closing Objective/Outcome: Integrated Mobility
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
5. Wuhan city develops and integrated public transport strategy
Yes/No N Y Y Y
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Deliverable “Strategic Study on Institutional and Management Framework for Wuhan Urban Transport Integration" was completed successfully and helped prepare the WITDP, which is carrying out its recommendations
A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators
Component: Public transport
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
1. % of bus stops targeted on PT corridors with enhanced accessibility for vulnerable users
Percentage 66.40 100.00 96.50 96.50
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
1.1 Heping Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 76.00 93.00 93.00 93.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
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1.2 Hanyang Avenue (sub-indicator)
Percentage 56.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Baseline and target values had to be revised due to change in public transport corridors. Baseline and target values that matter are for sub indicators, not for the parent indicator, because the sub-indicators cannot be added up or averaged to result in the value for the parent indicator.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
2. Number of public transport terminals, interchanges and transfer facility completed
Number 0.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Mar-2019
Comments (achievements against targets): Indicator was added during restructuring to monitor the progress of public transport interchanges. San Jin Tan and Tian Shun Yuan terminal were completed at the time of the ICR Mission Component: Road Safety
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
3. Number of intersections with traffic signals with pedestrian phase on RS corridors
Number 7.00 38.00 38.00 48.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
3.1 Heping Avenue (sub- Number 3.00 19.00 19.00 22.00
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Comments (achievements against targets): was revised to reflect the updated number of corridors in the Road Safety component and the resulting change in baseline and target values. Indicator is meaningful if measured by corridor, which leads to as many sub-indicators. Target was overachieved on 3 of the 4 corridors and only slightly below the target for the remaining corridor.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
4. Number of unsignalized zebras on RS corridors converted to non-conflicting crossings (including signalized mid-block crossings, footbridges and underpasses)
Number 0.00 9.00 9.00 17.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
4.1 Heping Avenue (sub- Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 6.00
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Comments (achievements against targets): revised to reflect the updated number of corridors in the Road Safety component and the resulting change in baseline. Indicator is meaningful if measured by corridor, which leads to as many sub-indicators. target was overachieved on 2 corridors and achieved on the remaining 2 corridors.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
5. Length of road with improved or new constructed physical separation between motorized and non-motorized vehicle flow on RS corridors
Comments (achievements against targets): revised to reflect the updated number of corridors in the Road Safety component and the resulting change in baseline. Indicator is meaningful if measured by corridor, which leads to as many sub-indicators. target was achieved for all subindicators. Component: Road Improvement
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
6. Length of roads improved/constructed of three key links (Shuidong Road, Jiefang Avenue Extension, and Shuidong Section of the 2nd Ring Road)
Kilometers 0.00 13.65 13.65 13.29
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
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6.3 Shuidong Section of the 2 Ring Road (sub-indicator)
Kilometers 0.00 0.89 0.89 0.89
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target was achieved on 2 of the 3 road sections and only slightly underachieved on Jiefang Av. Component: Traffic Demand Management
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
7. % of systems installed for traffic management on four Yangtze River bridges and three Hanjiang River bridges
Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): installation of traffic management on four Yangtze River bridges and three Hanjiang River bridges was achieved
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Component: Institutional Development
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
8. Definition and adoption of a bus route optimization strategy
Text No strategy yes yes yes
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets):
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
9. Definition and adoption of systematic parking pricing policy and a hierarchical parking zonal system
Text No systematic parking pricing policy and a hierarchical parking zonal system
yes yes yes
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): This study is known in the PAD as a congestion charging feasibility study (including parking demand management). While the congestion pricing is still not implemented in Wuhan, considerable progress was made towards adopting a hierarchical parking zoning and management system.
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
10. Number of staff trained on selected topics (in line with capacity building
Number 0.00 1000.00 1000.00 1200.00
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-May-2018
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program) with positive assessment of training (Person*day)
Comments (achievements against targets):
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Target
Actual Achieved at Completion
11. Non-motorized vehicles study completed
Yes/No N Y Y Y
31-Dec-2008 31-Dec-2015 31-Aug-2017 31-Aug-2018
Comments (achievements against targets):
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A. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT
Improved mobility within the central area of Wuhan
Outcome Indicators 1. Modal share of PT on targeted PT corridors 2. Average peak-hour travel time by bus along targeted PT corridors
Intermediate Results Indicators
1. Bus stops on PT corridors with enhanced accessibility for vulnerable users 2. Number of PT terminals, interchanges and transfer facilities completed
Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of Objective/Outcome 1)
1. Two bus depots built 2. 15.5 km of bus priority corridors implemented 3. 46 bus stops with enhanced accessibility for vulnerable users 4. Bus network optimization strategy implemented
Improved mobility within and to the central area of Wuhan
Outcome Indicators 1. Peak-hour travel time on targeted road sections
Intermediate Results Indicators
1. Length of roads improved/constructed for three key links (Shuidong Section of Second Ring Road, Jiefang Avenue (shorter than original) and Shuidong Road) completed 2. Percentage of systems installed for traffic management on four Yangtze River bridges and three Hanjiang River bridges
Key Outputs by Component
1. 13.29 km of roads constructed 2. 224 ATC junctions installed
Safe mobility
Outcome Indicators 1. Average number of fatalities per year on four Road Safety corridors
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Intermediate Results Indicators
1. Number of intersections with traffic signals with non-conflicting pedestrian phase 2. Number of unsignalized zebra crossings converted to signalize mid-block crossings 3. Length of road with improved or newly constructed physical separation between motorized and nonmotorized vehicle flow
Key Outputs by Component
1. 28.4 km of Road Safety corridors implemented 2. 48 intersections with non-conflicting traffic signals for pedestrians 3. 17 signalized pedestrian mid-block crossings 4. 13.3 km of physical separation between motorized and nonmotorized vehicle flow
Environmentally sustainable mobility
Outcome Indicators 1. Wuhan develops a strategy for environmentally friendly construction, maintenance, and operation of urban mobility infrastructure
Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Definition and adoption of systematic parking pricing policy and a hierarchical zonal parking system 2. Nonmotorized vehicle study completed
Key Outputs by Component
1. Manual for environmentally friendly construction of urban transport projects completed 2. Dynamic zonal parking system adopted 3. Nonmotorized vehicle study completed
Integrated Mobility
Outcome Indicators 1. Wuhan develops an integrated public transport strategy
Intermediate Results Indicators 1. Definition and adoption of a bus-route optimization strategy
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2. Number of staff trained in selected topics with positive assessment of training
Key Outputs by Component
1. Feasibility Study for Wuhan Integrated Transport Project completed 2. 1,200 staff days of training completed (relevant for all outcomes) 3. 12 domestic and 10 international study tours (relevant for all outcomes)
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ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION
A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS
Name Role
Preparation
Supervision/ICR
Arturo Ardila Gomez Task Team Leader(s)
Jingrong He Procurement Specialist(s)
Yi Geng Financial Management Specialist
Yan Zong Team Member
Shunong Hu Team Member
Zhefu Liu Social Specialist
Anita Shrestha Team Member
Feng Ji Environmental Specialist
Xuan Peng Team Member
Yang Chen Team Member
Fatima Arroyo Arroyo Team Member
Khaliun Bat Orig Team Member
Yumeng Zhu Team Member
Annika Berlin Team Member
B. STAFF TIME AND COST
Stage of Project Cycle Staff Time and Cost
No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs)
Preparation FY09 33.075 222,256.27
FY10 26.535 223,223.14
Total 59.61 445,479.41
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Supervision/ICR
FY10 6.125 36,085.10
FY11 25.305 179,002.78
FY12 14.236 73,656.60
FY13 15.460 112,648.50
FY14 16.477 119,203.00
FY15 21.343 109,621.32
FY16 27.100 168,235.00
FY17 20.010 145,983.87
FY18 25.595 181,513.76
FY19 35.820 207,581.63
Total 207.47 1,333,531.56
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ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT
Components Amount at Approval (US$, millions)
Actual at Project Closing (US$,
millions)
Percentage of Approval
Public Transport 44.90 33.91 75.52 Road Safety 14.52 10.11 69.63 Road Improvement 434.80 874.06 201 Travel Demand Management
4.92 5.08 103.25
Institutional Development Component
4.48 3.66 81.7
Total 503.62 926.82 106.22
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ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Methodology and Conclusion at Project Appraisal
1. A cost-benefit analysis using a transport planning model was employed for the RI component, the RS component, and the corridor element of the PT component, which together account for about 90 percent of the loan and over 90 percent of the total project cost. The project’s main benefits as identified in the analysis include: savings in VOCs; reduced congestion; time savings for pedestrians, bicycle riders, bus and auto passengers; and increased safety. In the medium and long terms, the project should boost the regional economic development of Wuhan Municipality in a sustainable manner, mainly by supporting greener growth, higher-quality urban transport services, low-carbon urban transport, and pollution and climate-change management. The benefits that were quantified included savings in: (a) VOCs, (b) passenger travel time, and (c) increased safety over the assumed project life of 20 years. The impact of CO2 reduction was estimated separately but was not listed in the quantified benefits nor included in the EIRR estimation. Other benefits not quantified include: (a) improved convenience and comfort for bus users, bicycle users and pedestrians; and (b) improved traffic management efficiency of urban transport as a whole in the project cities. Economic costs of the project were identified as capital investments. O&M costs over the project life were not specified. The EIRR for the project was estimated as 15.3 percent. The EIRR for the RI, RS and PT components was estimated to vary between 14.6 and 25 percent. Sensitivity analysis (assuming a 20 percent benefit decrease, a 20 percent cost increase, and both occurring) showed that the EIRR remains higher than the discount rate of 12 percent for most scenarios. The lowest EIRR obtained in the Sensitivity Analysis was 11.3 percent. Because the condition of the sensitivity analysis that requires the occurrence of both a 20 percent cost increase and a 20 percent benefit decrease was considered strict and unusual, the investment is considered economically feasible and has risk-resistance capacity.
2. The project components were all adjusted to a certain extent twice during project restructuring. The scope of the PT and RS components was amended, some project activities under the PT component were cancelled, the funding arrangements for the RI component were amended, and the loan closing date was extended. The economic analysis was not re-conducted in the Restructuring Paper.
Economic Analysis at Project Completion
3. The PDO remained the same throughout project implementation. The economic analysis at project completion continued to focus on the RS and RI components and the corridor element under the PT component to estimate the project’s benefits and costs. The investment for these components and elements accounts for 97 percent of total project investment. Compared to the PAD’s economic analysis, the economic analysis in the ICR incorporates the following adjustments:
4. Fifteen originally proposed project activities were cancelled during project implementation, while most of the project activities were revised during project restructuring. The economic analysis for the ICR should focus on the real benefit and cost of the finalized project activities. The project life was assumed to be 20 years in the PAD’s economic analysis. It was revised to reflect the designed service life of each corresponding project activity.
5. Parameters on population, traffic volume, traffic modes, etc. of the analysis were revised to reflect the real economic and social situation between 2009 and 2017, and the projections for 2018 to
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2038 were processed since then. Compared to the parameters used in the PAD, the population level in the ICR is lower than expected, the share of residents’ trips using motorcycles decreased sharply, and private-car ownership grew significantly faster than predicted in the PAD.
6. The benefit of avoided pollution and carbon emissions due to higher adoption of PT and reduced congestion was measured in the PAD based on the key assumption of “a nominal 10 percent improvement in the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet from 2015.” The benefit is re-evaluated based on the predicted transport volume and the modal share of trips in the with-project and without-project scenarios.
7. O&M costs are specified in the analysis.
Main Assumptions
8. The service life of the PT route built under the PT component is 15 years according to the project design. The service lives of the three roads constructed or upgraded in the RI component are 15 years for the Shuidong Section, 10 years for Shuidong Lu, and 15 years for Jiefang Avenue after completion of the construction. The life of the RS component is assumed to be 20 years after project construction ended in 2018. The residual value of project roads is 50 percent of the original investment at the end of the project. The discount rate adopted in this analysis is 12 percent.
9. The population and number of motor vehicles from 2009 to 2017 are published by Wuhan Statistical Yearbooks. The population from 2018 to 2038 was estimated based on the United Nation’s projection on China in its World Population Prospects. Vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2038 was estimated in consideration of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) projection of China’s economic growth rate. The number of motorcycles continued to decrease from 2009 to 2017. The number from 2018 to 2038 was projected using the average decreasing rate of the number in the previous five years.
10. Passengers’ time savings are calculated based on the transport modal share of Wuhan Municipality, reflecting the variation trend of numbers of different vehicles. The proportion of citizens’ daily trips using public transportation, taxis, private cars, motorcycles, bicycles and walking in 2009 was 20.9 %, based on household and motor vehicle surveys. The transport mode from 2010 to 2017 was inferred based on Wuhan Statistics Yearbooks. The transport mode in the without-project scenario from 2018 to 2038 was forecasted according to traffic-count growth projection. Passengers’ time cost is estimated based on the city’s per capita GDP. It increased with the projected economic growth rate from 2018 to 2038.
11. The cost of carbon emissions is assumed to be US$15/ton of CO2. Costs for traffic accidents are CNY one million (approx. US$147,000) per death in Wuhan in 2018. These increase with projected economic growth from 2018 to 2038.
12. The routine maintenance cost of the roads built under the RI component is CNY 30,000 (approx. US$4,400) per km per year in 2018. The maintenance cost increases by 3 percent every year thereafter. Significant repairs occur in the 10th and 17th years. The cost is 10 times the maintenance cost in that year. The routine management fee is CNY 10,000 (approx. US$1,500) per km per year.
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Table 4.1. Summary of the Key Assumptions in Representative Years
Wuhan 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 GDP (CNY, billions ) 1,417.9 1,797.6 2,173.4 2,572.0 3,025.1 GDP per capita (CNY 1,000 ) 129.7 162.1 195.1 231.5 274.7 Population (million) 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 Total number of motor vehicles (million) 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4
Transport modal share in without-project scenario (%)
Bus 15.3 16.9 18.4 20.1 22.1 Car 37.6 41.5 45.2 49.4 54.3
Time cost of passengers (CNY/hour) 40.5 50.6 60.9 72.2 85.7 Cost per death (CNY, millions) 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2
Cost-Benefit Analysis
13. The project’s economic benefit analysis compares the "with-project scenario" and "without-project scenario" to show transport cost savings in passengers’ time costs, VOCs, and road-accident costs with the improved urban transport system.
Without-project Scenario
14. The baseline is based on the assumption of a “without-project scenario” in which: (a) common transport modes of citizens include walking, bicycle, motorcycle, private car, taxi, bus, etc.; residents’ travel time is long and vehicle speed is limited; (b) traffic congestion is caused by an ill-defined hierarchy of roads that were not well maintained; (c) the PT system has limited network coverage, weak operational on-street management, and shortage of depots and facilities; (d) mobility for pedestrians and cyclists has declined due to the encroachment of cars and high rates of fatal accidents; (e) traffic management lacks necessary equipment; and (f) the capacity of buses cannot meet the population’s increasing demand. The increased traffic demand will be shared by other transport modes that are either more time consuming and unsafe or lead to worsening traffic congestion and higher carbon emissions.
With-project Scenario
The corridor element of the PT Component
15. In the “with-project scenario,” with strengthened PT route rationalization and operation, the share of residents’ trips using the PT mode increases significantly. The share of trips using private cars largely decreases. Driving speed increases due to on-street priority provided to buses on key selected road corridors and lower adoption of private cars, taxis, bicycles and motorcycles, and consequently fewer vehicles on streets. Although increased total traffic volume will reduce average travel speed, the total travel time on the corridors will be still shorter than time under the “without-project scenario.” Savings in passengers’ time costs are estimated based on the observed higher share of trips using PT and the shorter travel time of buses, as collected by PDO indicators with consideration of increased traffic volume. VOC
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savings are caused by the increased operational efficiency of PT. Avoided CO2 emissions are due to greater use of PT and less use of taxis and private cars. CO2 emissions will decrease proportionally according to decreased total traffic volume and changed traffic modal share in the “with-project scenario” compared to the “without-project scenario”.
The RI Component
16. In the “with-project scenario,” with rehabilitation and upgrading carried out, and construction of three key links of the urban road network, residents’ average travel time, especially during peak hours, is shortened. Travel efficiency on project roads is increased and VOCs are saved. Savings in passengers’ time costs are estimated based on the observed shorter travel time of residents on project roads, as collected by PDO indicators and increased traffic volume during the service period. VOC savings are estimated based on shorter time passing through project roads and savings in the labor costs of drivers and bus-ticket sellers. CO2 emissions will decrease proportionally according to the decreased total travel time of motorized vehicles in the “with-project scenario” compared to the “without-project scenario.”
The RS component
17. In the “with-project scenario,” road accident costs are decreased due to various project activities of the RS component and also benefit from better traffic management brought by the PT component. Savings in road accident costs are estimated according to the lowered incidence of fatalities of motorized vehicles captured by PDO-level indicators.
Summary of Benefit and Cost
18. Table 4.2 summarizes the benefit and cost of all three components throughout the project’s operating years.
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Table 4.2. Benefit and Cost Summary (CNY, ten thousand)
Present Value (in 2011) Construction Period Operation Period Discount rate: 12% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 13 18 23 27 Economic Benefits 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2024 2029 2034 2038
PT Component Benefit a) Savings in passengers’ time costs 23,907 0 0 0 -150 1,383 3,304 4,026 4,230 6,185 6,762 6,300 4,392 b) Avoided carbon emissions 700 0 0 0 17 46 36 124 130 163 201 250 300
It must be noted that this analysis is very conservative, and still shows economic viability:
(i) Discount rate is 12 percent. The new methodology recommended by the Bank will likely estimate a lower discount rate.
(ii) CO2 value US$15 per ton. The Bank guidance advises to use an increasing value from US$30 to US$50 by 2030.
(iii) Cost of a life US$147,000. While there are many methodologies to calculate the economic cost of a life, and this value would be consistent with many of said methodologies, a standard value is around US$1,000,000
(iv) The CBA conservatively does not consider time savings of private car users due to reduced congestion in corridors with increased PT modal share
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19. Results. The NPV of the project’s total net economic benefits is estimated to be 2.54 billion CNY (373,582 million US$), and the project’s EIRR is 17.28 percent. The BCR is 1.71. Table 4.3 presents results of the analysis. The EIRRs of the PT, RI, and RS Components are estimated to be 23.32 percent, 17.01 percent, and 28.1 percent, respectively. Sensitivity analysis assumes a 20 percent increase in total costs and a 20 percent decrease in total benefits. The EIRR of the project as a whole decreases to 13.19 percent under the strict assumption.
Comparison of EIRRs at Appraisal and Completion, and Main Explanations
20. Table 4.4 compares the results of the project’s estimated benefit and cost at appraisal and completion. In this table, the estimated present values in table 4.3 are adjusted to present value in 2009 and from Chinese yuan measured in U.S. dollars as presented in the PAD.
Table 4.4. Comparison of Present Values at Appraisal and Completion
Present Value in 2008
(US$, millions)
Total Benefit Total Cost Net Benefit EIRR (%) B/C Ratio
PAD PT 39.8 32.3 7.5 14.60 1.23 RI 408.8 309.4 99.4 14.80 1.32 RS 40.0 10.5 29.5 25.00 3.81
21. The difference between the estimated EIRRs in the PAD and ICR may be explained mainly by two reasons. First, the project’s investment structure was changed during implementation. Some of the proposed activities in the PT and RS Components were cancelled. This led to a decrease in the costs and benefits of these two components. Some of the activities in the RI component were also revised but the component was less influenced. Second, as the project’s major component, the RI component achieved much better results compared to those foreseen in the PAD. The M&E indicators show that the peak-hour travel time along the project roads is shorter than the target value set at project appraisal, especially for the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road. Meanwhile, private-car ownership by Wuhan residents increased faster than predicted (19 percent yearly from 2009 to 2018, according to Wuhan Statistical
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Yearbooks), while motorcycle ownership decreased sharply (-16 percent yearly from 2009 to 2018, according to the same source). These changes indicate that in the without-project scenario, a significantly higher proportion of residents would choose private cars for daily trips, compared to the PAD’s forecast in 2009; the traffic congestion of the project roads would be much worse than predicted in the without-project scenario. A comparison of the with-project scenario with this updated without-project scenario indicates a higher project benefit.
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ANNEX 5. BORROWER COMMENTS
对世行方世行二期项目 ICR 的回复意见 Borrowers comments on World Bank ICR for Wuhan II
尊敬的世行北办和安平先生：
Dear World Bank Beijing Office,
您好，武汉项目办已收到世行二期项目的完工报告（Report No:ICR00004621），
武汉项目办对该报告的框架等内容非常满意，报告从项目背景、发展目标、项目成果
等各个方面反映了世行二期项目的具体实施情况。但是报告中“世行绩效总体评级”
被评定为“中度令人满意”，武汉项目办对此评级有些不同意见。
We have received the ICR of WSUTP on the Bank’s part (Report No: ICR00004621). WPMO is very satisfied with the results framework listed in the report, etc. The report covers the project background, development objectives and project outcome, reflecting specifically all aspects of WSUTP implementation. But in regards of the rating by the report that the Bank’s overall performance is rated as Moderately Satisfactory, WPMO holds different opinions on this matter.
由于无法预见的政策影响，对世行二期项目的实施造成延迟，但是武汉项目办积
极与武汉市政府等相关部门沟通协调，采取各种措施推动项目实施进度，落实世行二
期项目配套资金。世行二期项目因为地铁规划取消了一些项目，武汉项目办也提出了
新的替补项目以保证世行二期项目目标的成功完成，并在部分子项实施进度良好的情
况下新增了课题研究项目。在世行二期项目贷款关账日前，世行贷款已全部提取完毕，
各子项也已成功实施完成。
Due to the unforeseen changes in the policy, effects have been caused on WSUTP implementation that resulted in delay of the implementation progressing. WPMO actively communicated and coordinated with Wuhan Municipal Government and the relevant agencies, taking various measures to advance the progress of the project implementation, particularly in securing availability of the counterpart funds for the project. While certain project work items dropped from WSUTP due to the metro planning, WPMO made projection of additional sub-projects purposed for ensuring the successful accomplishment of the project PDO, and additional study items launched under certain components that attained well progressing. As such before WSUTP loan closing date, the Bank loan was disbursed in full amount and all the components completed successfully.
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行二期项目的成果不仅达成了项目发展目标，满足了项目成果和项目产出指标的要
求，还对武汉市产生了示范和扩散效应，提高了武汉市交通技术水平，提升了武汉市
的国际竞争力和影响力，并对武汉市的社会、经济、环境等方面产生了积极影响。我
们认为世行二期项目应该评为高度满意项目，其理由如下： WSUTP achieves its PDO and meets the project outcome and output indicators, it also brings about the city-wide project effects in demonstration and replication of the approach that accomplishes the heightening of Wuhan transport technology level, advances the city’s international competitiveness and influence, as well as the positive impact on Wuhan’s social, economic and environmental development. We believe that the project rating of WSUTP should be rated as highly satisfactory for the following reasons:
一、世行二期项目的成果具有示范和扩散效应
（一）提高了武汉市交通技术水平
世行二期项目不仅在一定程度上缓解了武汉市经济发展与建设资金不足的矛盾，
而且为武汉市带来了国际先进的交通管理模式和管理理念，推动武汉市交通管理机制
的创新和发展，提高了武汉市交通技术水平，部分项目的实施为武汉修建其他道路起
到了示范引领作用。
I. The outcome of WSUTP brings about the effects in demonstration and replication of the approach
A. Improve Wuhan transport technology level WSUTP not only mitigates the contradiction between Wuhan’s economic development and insufficiency of the construction funds, but also brings to Wuhan the international advanced transport management practice and management concept that is conducive to Wuhan traffic management mechanism innovation and development. While it improves Wuhan transport technology level, implementation of certain sub-projects plays a guidance role in another road construction in the city.
1、和平大道、汉阳大道公交优先走廊的建设并结合“非机动车及行人规划”和
“公交一体化和线网优先”等课题研究，为武汉市打造“地铁+公交+慢行”的复合出
行模式建立了基础。随着和平大道、汉阳大道公交优先走廊的顺利实施，特别是2014
年6月和平大道公交优先走廊完工以及同年7月1日正式上路启用后，武汉市出台了一
系列的公交专用道的通行管理制度以及公交专用道的建设规划。2016年5月1日起，
武汉市新建30条共120公里的公交专用道正式启用。截至2018年11月，武汉共有公交
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专用道50条，双向430公里。武汉市根据不断开通的地铁新线路，分期分批动态优化
调整公交线网，在新、改、扩建道路中设置公交专用道，完善慢行交通系统，施划非
机动车停放区，投放共享单车等，使武汉交通基础设施供给不断增强，实现地铁、公
交、自行车转换无缝对接。2018年12月13日，武汉市被交通运输部授予为“国家公
交都市建设示范城市”。
1. Construction of public priority corridors of Heping Avenue and Hanyang Avenue in combination with implementation of the study items, such as NMV and pedestrian transport planning and public transport integration and bus network optimization, constituted the basis of Metro + Bus + Slow Mobility composite travel mode in Wuhan. Along with Heping Avenue and Hanyang Avenue PT corridors implementation, especially upon Hanyang Avenue PT corridor completion in June 2014 and put into operation on July 1, Wuhan projected a series of management system and construction plan of PT bus lanes. Starting from May 1, 2016, thirty new bus lanes, with a total of 120 km, were opened to traffic, and by November 2018, Wuhan had a total of 50 bus lanes, 430 km in both directions. In accordance with growth in metro line network, Wuhan carried out by steps the bus network optimization in dynamical adjustment manner, with bus routes opened in newly constructed, rehabilitated and expanded roads, and having the slow traffic system improved, NMV parking areas facilitated, shared bicycles system put into operation, etc. that attained the transport infrastructure supply strengthened continuously and the seamless transfer among metro, bus and bicycle modes. On December 13, 2018 the Ministry of Transport awarded Wuhan City the honorary title of “Transit Metropolis” in 2018.
2、道路安全走廊的建设保障了公交优先走廊的正常运行，对车辆闯红灯的违法
行为实施监测，遏制交通违法行为；对交叉口信号灯系统进行改良，为公交车辆实施
优先通行的控制策略，保障公交车辆快速通过交叉口，减少公交车辆中途运行时间，
提高公交系统的准点率和可靠性，有效提高公交服务水平，提升城市品质。并且道路
安全走廊设计目前在武汉市多条道路得到了推广，如常青路、青年路、沙湖大道等。
2. Construction of RS corridors guarantees the normal operation of bus priority corridors. The vehicle red light violations are put under monitoring to deal with the illegal behaviors; the junctions traffic signal system improved to facilitate on-street priority for buses that accomplishes the bus priority when passing through crossings, reducing the running time of buses, and enhancing the punctuality rate and reliability of the public transport system. All these effectively heighten the bus service level and improve quality of the city. And the RS corridor design is replicated in many roads in Wuhan, such as Changqing Road, Qingnian Road and Shahu Avenue.
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3、道路完善子项中三条道路的建设缩短了沿线出行时间，同时对武汉新城区的
发展具有战略的重要性。二环线水东段的建设，促成武昌东部地区交通环境的改善，
二七长江大桥过江交通的快速汇集和分流的需求得到满足，推动了该道路沿线地区的
经济发展。水东路的建设，缓解了二七长江大桥南岸过江交通流量的交通压力，从二
环线临江大道到和平大道地区的出行时间得以缩短。解放大道下延线的建设，提高了
解放大道下延线快速进出城的交通功能和生活性功能，增进了主要城区与二环线、三
环线及黄陂区之间的交通联系，从而缓解了过境交通带来的压力。除了增进武汉主要
城区与外围各区之间的交通通达性，解放大道下延线对于武汉长江新城的开发尤其具
有重要意义，这是因为解放大道下延线有一公里长的路段是包含在长江新城内。
3. The reduction in travel times on three key roads under the road improvement component is of strategic importance for new urban development in Wuhan. Construction of the Shuidong Section of the Second Ring Road improves the traffic environment of the eastern part of Wuchang and promotes the economic development in surrounding areas by meeting the needs for rapid collection and distribution of river-crossing traffic on the Erqi Yangtze River Bridge. Construction of Shuidong Road relieves the river-crossing traffic flow of Erqi Yangtze River Bridge at the south bank and shortens travel times from Linjiang Avenue on the Second Ring Road to the Heping Avenue area. Construction of JAE enhances traffic connection of the urban center area with the Second Ring Road, Third Ring Road, and Huangpi District, thus relieving the through-traffic pressure. Moreover, as of strengthening traffic accessibility between the urban center area and peripheral districts in Wuhan, JAE is especially important for development of Wuhan Yangzi River New Town because a one-km road section of JAE is located there.
4、武汉项目办先后多次组织项目管理和技术人员参加国内外技术培训、学术讲
座和实地调研。通过世行二期项目实施，武汉市逐步探索和建立了适合本地的城市交
通发展规划。各种智能化交通系统的投放大大提高了武汉市交通技术水平，交通规划
相关课题研究及项目相关人员专业知识的提升都为促进武汉市城市交通进一步发展奠
定了良好基础。
4. WPMO organizes for many times the project management and technical personnel to participate in the domestic and international technical training, academic workshops and field study tours. By WSUTP implementation Wuhan explores and establishes gradually the urban transport development planning in pertinence to the local conditions. The launch of various intelligent transport systems greatly improves Wuhan transport technology level. The studies on transport planning and the professional knowledge enhancement of the project staff, all these lay a sound basis for Wuhan urban transport development.
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5、世行二期项目中聘请国内外咨询专家与本地科研机构共同开展了五项课题研
究，课题研究成果均为武汉市城市交通的发展提供了相关技术支持和理论依据，促进
了武汉城市交通的可持续发展。如“公交一体化和线网优先研究”的研究成果为武汉
市积极构建以轨道交通为骨干、“快、干、支、微”多层次一体化的公共交通客运体
系提供了指导；武汉市交通运输委员会同武汉市国土资源和规划局成功编制了《武汉
市常规公交线网优化调整规划（2014-2020年）》；武汉市出台了《武汉市常规公交线
网优化调整实施方案》、《武汉公交线网调整风险评估与管控》以及相关制度体系等。
5. During WSUTP implementation five studies were carried out jointly by hired domestic and international consultants and the local scientific research institutions, which worked to provide technical support and theoretical basis for Wuhan urban transport sustainable development. The study items, such as the public transport integration and bus network optimization constituted the guidance for Wuhan constructing out a rail transit-based PT passenger transport system comprising of BRT, primary, branch and micro systems integration. Wuhan Transport Committee, Wuhan Municipal Land Resources Bureau and Planning Bureau compiled successfully Wuhan PT Bus Line Network Optimization and Adjustment Plan (2014-2020); and the initiatives of Wuhan PT Bus Line Network Optimization and Adjustment Implementation Plan, Wuhan PT network adjustment risk assessment and control and related institutional systems arrangement were endeavored by the municipality.
（二）提升了武汉市的国际竞争力和影响力
与世行合作以来，竞争性招标制、提款报账制、项目年度审计制、项目定期督导
制等先进的管理模式已经广泛影响到武汉市社会经济的各个方面，也使武汉市交通技
术发展与国际接轨。武汉市利用与世界银行合作这个平台，引进来的同时积极走出去，
全面展示武汉市与世行等国际组织合作所取得的丰硕成果，推广武汉市的成功经验，
促进国际交流与合作，提升武汉市的国际竞争力和影响力。
B. Enhancing the international competitiveness and influence of Wuhan city Since the cooperation established between Wuhan and the World Bank, the advanced management systems of the competitive bidding system, the reimbursement practice, the project annual audit system and the regular project supervision system have been introduced in Wuhan and bringing about effects on social and economic aspects. Wuhan transport technology has been railed with the international practice. Standing on the World Bank-Wuhan cooperation platform, Wuhan has opened to the world while the international practice introduced from the outside. The city has demonstrated the fruitful results of cooperation with the World Bank and other international organizations, making known of its successful
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experience, promoting the international exchanges and cooperation that has enhanced its international competitiveness and influence.
在世行二期项目执行和管理过程中，武汉市创造了不少成功的范例和许多有益的
经验，这些经验通过世行等合作伙伴向世界其它地区传播，对发展中国家和地区的项
目管理和经济社会发展产生重要影响。
During WSUTP implementation and management, Wuhan brings forth a number of successful examples along with many useful experiences, which are spread to other parts of the world through the World Bank and other partners, which exerts important influences in the project management and economic and social development in the developing countries and regions.
武汉的快速建设与发展频频吸引世界目光，2018年1月英国首相特蕾莎·梅访华
期间造访武汉大学、长江大桥武昌桥头堡和黄鹤楼；2018年4月印度总理莫迪和中国
国家主席习近平在武汉举行了非正式会晤；2018年5月上海合作组织成员国首届旅游
部长会议在武汉圆满举办；2018年9月全球五大超五赛之一“武汉网球公开赛”在光
谷国际网球中心完美落幕；2019年10月全球军人的奥运会”——第七届世界军人运
动会即将在中国武汉拉开大幕。
Rapid progressing of Wuhan’s development attracts the attentions around the world. In January 2018 British Prime Minister Theresa May came to Wuhan, visiting Wuhan University, Yangtze River Bridge Wuchang Bridgehead and Yellow Crane Tower; in April 2018 Indian Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping held an informal meeting in Wuhan; in May 2018 the first meeting of the Tourism Ministers of Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states was successfully held in Wuhan; in September 2018 Wuhan Tennis Open Games, as one of the top five super competitions world-wide, was held at the Optics Valley International Tennis Center. And in October 2019 the 7th World Military Games, so called the Olympic Games will be held in Wuhan.
二、世行二期项目成果的社会影响
世行二期项目属于公共交通基础设施工程，它的建设对社会影响以正面影响（即
社会效益）为主，但由于项目也涉及部分征地和拆迁，其社会影响不可忽视。
II. The project outcome of WSUTP in term of social effects WSUTP is a public transport infrastructure project in nature, and the social impact (i.e., the social benefits) the project brought about mainly are positive ones. Due to involvement of land acquisition and resettlement by a part of the project, the social impact is nonetheless considerable.
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（一）项目提高了项目所在地区居民收入
总体来看，世行二期项目的建设对所在地区的居民收入影响是正面的。首先，武
汉项目办制定了完善的征地拆迁安置补偿政策，世行二期项目所涉及拆迁安置的居民
得到了直接到位的经济补偿，并由政府全面落实了被征地居民的社会保障制度；其次，
项目的建设促进了沿线土地升值和房地产租金的上涨，给拥有地产的当地居民带来直
接的收入提高；另外，项目的建设大大改善沿线整体环境，提升区域人气和商业氛围，
为当地居民开办商店、餐馆、旅店等，通过经商、创业提高收入创造了良好的条件。
A. The project increases the income of residents in the project area Generally, WSUTP construction causes the positive impact on income of residents in the project area. Firstly, WPMO has formulated a comprehensive compensation policy for land acquisition and resettlement. The residents involved in the project land acquisition and resettlement are provided directly with the economic compensations, and the affected people are ensured by the social security system on the government’s part. Secondly, the project construction causes the along-route land value-adding and the house rent rising, which means directly the income increases on the local residents’ part who usually have received several apartments. Moreover, the project construction greatly improves the overall environment surrounding areas that enhances the pedestrian flow and commercial atmosphere, and the local residents offered new source of income from entrepreneurship by carrying on businesses of stores, restaurants, hotels, etc.
（二）项目提高了项目所在地区居民的生活水平和生活质量
世行二期项目作为交通基础设施建设工程，它的实施有效地改善了所在地区交通
基础设施相对滞后的状况，缓解区域日益突出的交通矛盾，节省广大居民出行时间和
出行成本，对改善广大居民的生活质量和生活水平具有重要的积极意义。同时，通过
道路沿线的绿化带建设以及地下管网系统的完善，还大大地改善沿线居民的生活环境，
提高广大居民生活品质。
B. The project improves the living standards and quality of life of the residents in the project area As a transport infrastructure construction project, WSUTP implementation changes effectively the relatively lagging of transport infrastructure development in the project area, mitigating the increasing traffic pressure, leading savings in the travel time and travel costs of the residents that resulted in improvement of the living standards and quality of life of the residents in the project area. At the same time by building green belts along the routes and the improvement of the underground pipe network
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system, the living environment of the along-route residents is bettered greatly and the quality of life of the people improved likewise.
（三）项目提高了当地居民的就业情况
世行二期项目投资多、工程量大，工程本身建设就需要大量的技术和施工人员。
同时，项目建成后改善武汉市的投资环境，带动沿线地区土地利用开发，促进区域产
业、经济发展，从而间接地为区域带来众多的就业机会。因此，世行二期项目的建设
为当地居民创造大量的直接或间接的就业岗位，对缓解当地居民的就业问题具有显著
的积极意义。
C. The project improves employment of local residents WSUTP is a large amount investment project with a great work amount that requires engagement of large number of technical and construction work force. At the same time completion of the project results in the investment Wuhan environment improvement, along-route land development enhancement and the regional industrial and economic development enhancement, which bring about indirectly many employment opportunities. Therefore, WSUTP construction creates directly and indirectly many jobs for the local residents that exerts a significant role in meeting the job-taking demand of the local residents.
（四）项目全面考虑了所在地区不同利益群体的要求
世行二期项目的建设对绝大部分当地居民来讲都是有利的，有利于改善他们的出
行条件和生活环境，相对来说受损的是被征土地的土地拥有人。但这主要看土地的机
会成本，从目前武汉市人民政府对被征土地居民群体的利益考虑和利益安排来说，土
地的机会成本基本已经得到比较妥善的考虑，因此世行二期项目的建设基本上照顾到
了各相关利益群体的要求，是个多赢的方案。
D. The project considers comprehensively requirements of different interest groups in the project area
WSUTP has benefited most local residents in the project area in various aspects. It is conducive to the people travel conditions and living environment improvement. For APs whose lands were acquired by the project, the opportunity cost of the land was properly considered as WMG took into account of interests of the affected people in the project area and arrangements for their interests were made. The project construction generally takes care of the requirements of various interest groups, and the project as a solution attained a win-win accomplishment.
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（五）项目加快了城市化进程
世行二期项目本身就是一项交通基础设施工程，因此它的建设直接改善当地的交
通基础设施条件。但它的建设也给当地供水、供电、通讯等公共基础设施增加一定的
供应压力，不过目前所在地区城市基础设施已较为完善，完全能满足世行二期项目的
需要，都在社会服务容量所允许的范围内。
世行二期项目的建设有利于加快沿线地区的土地利用开发，引导人口、产业、资
金、技术集聚，为此对加快武汉市城市化进程的影响是积极的。
E. The project accelerates the process of urbanization
WSUTP per se is a transport infrastructure project, and its construction leading directly to the local transport infrastructure improvement. On the other hand, the project construction increases the pressure on water, electricity, communications and other public infrastructure services. At present the urban infrastructure in the project area is relatively in completeness, sufficient to meet the needs of the project, that is, the demand within the allowable level of the social service capacity.
WSUTP construction is conducive to advancing the along-route land development, and it constitutes guidance for the population, industry, capital, and technology agglomeration. Therefore, the project exerts a positive influence in accelerating the urbanization process in Wuhan.
三、世行二期项目成果的经济影响
城市公共交通对于城市的经济发展来说是一种纽带，这种纽带的作用既体现为内
在的融通，又体现在对外的融通。世行二期项目的建设改善了公共交通环境，提高城
市交通设施使用效率，增加道路面积，提升城市功能，改善城市形象和投资环境，满
足与经济同步发展的交通需要，促使了武汉市生产力的发展。
III. The project outcome of WSUTP in term of economic effects Urban public transport to a city means a bond of the economic development, which presents as an internal integration and an external integration as well. WSUTP construction brings about the improvement of public transport environment, heightening of urban transport facilities operation efficiency, increase of road area, upgrading of urban functions, and bettering of the city image and investment environment that meet the transport demand in line with the economic development, that is, to promote development of Wuhan city’s productivity.
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1、世行二期项目的实施促进武汉市城市交通更加合理，拓宽、疏通次干道和支
路，加快交通换乘枢纽建设，贯彻落实了“以人为本，一体化发展”的理念，降低市
民出行时间和出行成本，为市民的生活提供更多的便捷。公共交通出行率提高，进而
更好的带动城市经济的发展。
1. WSUTP contributes to Wuhan urban transport development in rational pattern. Along with the project implementation, the secondary roads and branch roads are broadened and well connected, the pace of transport transfer hubs construction accelerated, the concept of “people-oriented and integrated development” put into practice, the citizens' travel time and travel cost reduced, and the citizens facilitated with more convenience in daily lives. Increase of the public transport mode ratio contributes the economic development of the city.
2. In general term, there is a mutual promotion and mutual advancing relations between the urban public transport and the city’s external transport. In recent years the key areas of Wuhan urban construction have gradually expanded from the central urban area to the periphery, concentrated especially in areas near Second Ring Road and Third Ring Road. The development scale of new town areas is expanding continuously, along with corresponding changes in traffic volume distribution, featuring the traffic demand growing day by day in transport between the central area and the periphery, while connection of internal transport with external transport weighting more and more. WSUTP construction not only mitigates the traffic congestion in the central area but speeding up the road building in linkage among the ring roads and rapid passages connecting the periphery with the urban central area. In accomplishing well linkage of the urban public transport with the city’s external transport, the project advances the transport development in Wuhan, and attaining rapid goods and persons mobility for the city's economic growth.
3、武汉距北京、天津、上海、广州、重庆、西安等特大城市均在1200公里左右，
其独特的区位优势造就了得天独厚的交通优势，同时特殊的地理位置和地形地貌决定
了武汉交通面临过江交通、过境交通、中心区交通问题。世行二期项目建设强有力的
交通体系，拉进了各城市间的距离，有利于统一的市场竞争机制的培育和完善，为城
市经济的发展提供了良好的市场环境。便利的城市交通在很大程度上成为吸收投资的
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重要因素，也有利于资本的有效流动和合理配置，克服生产中的瓶颈状况，实现效益
的最大化及经济的进一步扩张。
3. Wuhan is ideally located in the country that the distances away from Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Xi'an and other mega-cities all ranged some 1,200 kilometers, thus the city is endowed with unique transport advantage. At the same time its special geographical location and topography determines that the river crossing traffic, through traffic and urban central area traffic are issues to be dealt with in transport development in Wuhan. WSUTP construction brings the three-towns closer that is conducive to cultivation and improvement of a unified market competition mechanism, facilitated the city’s economic development with a well market environment. Convenient urban transport becomes to a great extent an important factor of absorbing investment, conducive to effectiveness of capital flow and its rational allocation. It deals with the bottlenecks in production activities, thus attaining the benefit maximization and further economy’s expansion.
4、随着城市社会经济持续增长、城市化进程加快、机动化迅猛发展和人员出行
总量的增加，在未来一段时期内，城市交通需求将大幅增长。武汉市已经进入以快速
路和快速轨道交通为主体的大规模交通建设的战略阶段，城市建设资金缺口较大。世
行二期项目的建设，缓解了城市建设资金不足，建设了一批百姓期盼，政府关注的基
础性、综合型项目。
4. Along with the continuous social economic development of the city, the accelerating urbanization, the rapid growth of motorization and the increase of person travel volume, it is expected that in the coming years the urban transport demand will increase substantially. Nowadays Wuhan has entered the strategic stage of large-scale transit construction with expressway and rapid rail transit as the backbone elements. As such there is a large gap in construction fund supply. WSUTP construction accomplishes building up several basic and comprehensive projects in meeting with the people’s expectancy and with the government’s concern in the period that the municipality is situated of shortage in the construction fund.
四、世行二期项目成果的环境影响
世行二期项目为城市综合交通改善工程，大力提高交通管理水平，充分挖掘城市
现有道路网络的潜能，修建公交优先走廊等有效的改善了武汉市的交通状况，达到了
缓解交通、净化环境的效果。
随着武汉市地铁新线路的不断开通，武汉市分期分批动态优化调整公交线网，在
新、改、扩建道路中设置公交专用道，完善慢行交通系统，施划非机动车停放区，投
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放共享单车等，武汉交通基础设施供给不断增强，实现地铁、公交、自行车转换无缝
对接，如青年路范湖站。为贯彻公交优先战略，鼓励更多市民采取公共交通方式出行，
进一步提升公交吸引力，缓解城市交通拥堵，2016年1月1日经武汉市政府同意，正
式实施《武汉市常规公交换乘优惠实施办法》，节约市民出行成本，实行公交一卡通
刷卡八折、换乘常规公交打折等优惠方法（如：部分线路第一次换乘刷卡免费，第二、
三次换乘刷卡享受全票价6-7折优惠等），使“地铁+公交+慢行”的复合出行模式逐渐
成为武汉市市民的主要出行方式，使武汉的公共交通出行变得越来越便捷、舒适与绿
色。
IV. The project outcome of WSUTP in term of environmental effects WSUTP, as a comprehensive urban transport improvement project, makes vigorous efforts in measures of heightening the traffic management level, putting potential of the existing road network into full exertion, and building bus priority corridors that improve effectively the transport operation in Wuhan. It attains a project outcome of alleviating the traffic pressure and clean the environment as well. In accordance with growth in metro line network, Wuhan has carried out by steps the bus network optimization in dynamical adjustment manner, with bus routes opened in newly constructed, rehabilitated and expanded roads, and having the slow traffic system improved, NMV parking areas facilitated, shared bicycles system put into operation, etc. that attained the transport infrastructure supply strengthened continuously and the seamless transfer among metro, bus and bicycle modes, such as that in Qingnian Road Fanhu PT Station. For putting the bus priority strategy into practice, encouraging more citizens to shift to public transport mode, further enhancing the PT mode attractiveness, and alleviating urban traffic congestion, on January 1, 2016 with the WMG consent the municipality implemented officially the Measures of Preferential Treatment for Wuhan PT Bus Transfer that aims at the travel cost saving on the citizens’ part, which prescribes that the fare cost off by 20% for public transport-wide IC card users; that the discounts are offered to PT bus users in route transfer (such as: route transfer by first time being free of charge in case of a part of routes, route transfer by second/third times being charged per 60%-70%, etc.) This has made Metro + Bus + NMT composite travel mode becoming he main travel mode of Wuhan citizens, leading to the public transport in Wuhan more and more convenient, comfortable and green.
综上所述，为了成功实施世行二期项目，武汉项目办、世行项目工作组、武汉市
政府以及相关部门共同付出了许多努力，世行二期项目的实施效率和实施成果都是十
分令人满意的，武汉市将长时期受益于世行二期项目的成果，因此真诚的希望完工报
告对本次项目世行绩效总体评级定为高度满意。
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In summary WPMO, the Bank task team, WMG and relevant agencies have made a lot of efforts together in WSUTP implementation. For that the efficiency and project outcome of WPMO are all quite satisfactory, that the city has benefited from WSUTP outputs during a long period, we sincerely hope that the Overall Rating of Bank Performance by ICR should be rated as highly satisfactory.
武汉市城市建设利用外资项目管理办公室 Wuhan Urban Construction Utilization Foreign Investment Project Management Office
2019年6月26日 June 26, 2019
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ANNEX 6. LESSONS LEARNT FROM ICR WUHAN I
1. Simplify project design to ensure greater focus and impact of operation. This project, similar to other “first generation” urban transport projects developed by the Bank in China, attempted to address all transport issues in a client city through a large series of physical investments and a wide array of institutional activities. WUTP was certainly the culmination of this approach. However, the project tried to take on too many activities and the result was that it lacked depth and was generally overly complicated. The Bank has developed in China a “second generation” of urban transport projects that are much more focused, selective, and integrated. WSUTP exemplifies this new approach and has usefully benefited from the lessons learned under WUTP.
2. Simplify the number of performance indicators. The key performance indicators were focused and relevant, but too numerous. To retain focus and to simplify the PMO’s task, fewer indicators would have been better. There should also have been an indicator to measure RS – an important project focus and outcome.
3. Important reforms need to be subtly initiated and managed. At the time of appraisal, Wuhan seemed willing to take a phased approach to PT reform, leading eventually to the implementation of bus route tendering on a competitive basis. This fundamental reform in the way WPTGC would operate was largely promoted by the Bank. It became obvious during implementation that WPTGC would not opt for bus route tendering but rather keep PT with the government and try other approaches to meet the growing bus ridership demand. In hindsight, this experience demonstrates the importance, in promoting important reforms, of ensuring continuous, effective communication with all relevant levels of political decision-making, including in this case, the municipal government, to secure their support and commitment throughout the project’s life.
4. Formulating a comprehensive strategy with government ownership is crucial to strengthen local institutional capacity in urban transport planning and anchor sustainable investments. A very successful urban transport strategy effort started during project preparation (with WUTS) and continued during implementation (with the “Further Study on WUTS”), anchored urban transport investments in Wuhan for more than a decade. From the start of project preparation (with WUTS), the institutional capacity of the Wuhan Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute has largely benefited from the knowledge and international best-practice brought by the Bank in urban transport modeling, planning, and policy making. The follow-on efforts during implementation, the “Further Study on WUTS” (TA under the Project) demonstrated strong and evident city capacity and ownership as well as the sustainability of the strategy. This was certainly one of most significant achievements of the project.
5. Enhancing bus priority schemes. Due to its rather limited design, the PT pilot bus priority scheme has not achieved the full benefits of bus priority schemes. For bus priority to be effective, there has to be the foundation of good route rationalization and efficient operational practices, seamless integration of corridors and good physical design focusing on the physical separation of the lanes from general traffic, signal priority at intersections and good bus stop location and design.
6. Under the follow-up project, it was decided to focus PT improvements along a selected set of key municipal transport corridors and integrate them closely with the interventions carried out under the RS component to maximize the benefits.
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ANNEX 7. MAPS PROJECT SITES WUHAN II
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