Implications, adaptations & policies for food security and livelihoods

Based on…..

Where are we in the programme?Projected changes to

atmospheric and oceanic conditions

Ecosystems supporting fish

Fish stocks/aquaculture species

Implications for economic development, food security and

livelihoods

Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on

opportunities

Outline• Factors affecting availability of fish for food

Reef area, population growth, climate change

• Implications for food security Relative importance of population growth and

climate change

• Win-win adaptations

• Supporting policies

Goal to use fish for food security

• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year

Vanuatu

• 20 kg of fish per person

per year

Where does most fish come from?

• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses

How Much is available ?

Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay

Smol Problem!

Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown

Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year

Coral reef area in Solomon Islands

CountryLand area

(km2)

Reef area(km2)

Fiji 18,272 10,000*

New Caledonia 19,100 35,925

PNG 462,243  22,200*

Solomon Islands 27,556 8,535

Vanuatu 11,880 1,244

Annual coastal fish production (mt)

Reef area (km2)

Reef fish (tonnes)

1,244 = 3,732

• Population in 2010 was 252,000

~ 15 kg of fish per person per year

3 tonnes x

UHH OHH!

• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year

Vanuatu

• 20 kg of fish per

person per year (15 from reefs 5 from tuna)

Factors affecting availability of fish

Year Population

2010 252,000

2035 400,000

2050 483,000

2100 695,000

Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme

• Population growth

2035 (-2 to -5%)

2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)

Today

Effects of climate change on production

YUMI KAT BIGFALA GAP

Current/Future Availability 35kg per person

Qua

ntity

of fi

sh/h

abita

tQ

uanti

ty o

f fish

/hab

itat

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly-managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Time

Fish available from stocks

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

Fish habitat

a)

b)

Qua

ntity

of fi

sh/h

abita

tQ

uanti

ty o

f fish

/hab

itat

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly-managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Time

Fish available from stocks

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

Fish habitat

a)

b)

Adaptations

Qua

ntity

of fi

sh/h

abita

tQ

uanti

ty o

f fish

/hab

itat

Time

Well-managed fisheries

Fish needed by growing population

Fish needed by growing population

Fish available from coastal stocks

Fish available from coastal stocks

Poorly-managed fisheries

Gap in supply of fish to be filled

Time

Fish available from stocks

Fish available from stocks

Fish habitat

Fish habitat

a)

b)

• Must minimise and then fill the gap

Adaptation decision framework

Lose-Lose

X X

Lose-Win

X

Win-Win

x

X

Long-term Loss Long-term GainN

ear-

term

Gai

nN

ear-

term

Los

sAddresses climate change

Addr

esse

s pr

esen

t driv

ers

After Grafton (2010)

Win-Lose

Potential Adaptations to MINIMIZE the Gap

Win-win adaptationsManage and restore vegetation cover in catchments

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Improves resilience of coral reef, mangrove and seagrass habitats

Win-win adaptationsSustain production of fish stocks

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure replenishment and build resilience of key species

Potential Adaptations to FILL the Gap

How best to fill the gap to provide 35kg/person?

Coastal fisheries Freshwater fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna & bycatch

Win-win adaptationsStore and distribute tuna and bycatch from industrial fleets to urban areas

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Win-win adaptations

Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Subsurface FAD

Win-win adaptations

Improve post-harvest methods

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Photo: Jocelyn Carlin

Win-win adaptationsDevelop pond aquaculture in rural and peri-urban areas

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Photo: Ben Ponia

Win-win adaptations

Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic species

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L?

Photo: Nathalie Behring

Win-win adaptations

Use Available Climate Servicesfrom Meteo Dept

meteo.gov.vu

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L?

Other adaptationsProvide for landward migration of coastal fish habitats

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Other adaptationsReduce and diversify catches of demersal fish

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Greater focus on herbivorous fish

Other adaptationsAllow for expansion of freshwater fish habitats

L-W

W-W

L-L

W-L

Suggested supporting policies

• Strengthen governance of agriculture, forestry and mining practices to prevent soil loss and pollution, to safeguard fish habitats and water quality

• Minimise barriers to migration of coastal and freshwater habitats

• Promote mangrove replanting programmes• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and

freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment

Suggested supporting policies

• Apply ‘primary fisheries management’ to coastal and freshwater stocks to maintain their potential for replenishment

- gear restrictions- spatial closures

- size limits- closed seasons

Suggested supporting policies

• Increase access to tuna for the food security• Capitalise on opportunities for freshwater pond

aquaculture

Key investments

Surveys of best sites for installing inshore FADs Programmes to install and maintain FADs Identify prime locations for peri-urban and rural

pond aquaculture Hatcheries and networks to deliver juvenilesEvaluate merits of micro-credit schemes to develop

fisheries around FADs; expand pond aquaculture; and scale-up post-harvest processing

www.nab.vu

500+ terrestrial adaptation strategies for various climate impacts

Conclusions

• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks and capitalise on opportunities

• Much ADAPTATION can be done cheaply now

• Supporting policies and investments are needed

• Integrate adaptations and policies and investments into national strategies and action plans for climate change, including community-based actions supported by partners