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Improvement on PM forecasting – Anthropogenic fugitive dust (primary PM emission) –

modulated by snow/ice cover

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Pius Lee1, Jeff McQueen2, Ivanka Stajner3, Daniel Tong1,4,5, Jianping Huang2, Hyuncheol Kim1,4, Li Pan1,4, Barry Baker1,6, Sarah Lu2 ,Jerry Gorline7, Daiwen Kang8,9,Sikchya Upadhaya3,10

1Air Resources Lab. (ARL), NOAA, NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP), College Park, MD2Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NCWCP, College Park, MD

3Office of Science and Technology, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD4Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellite, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

5Center for Spatial information Science and Systems, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA6Department of Physics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, MD

7Meteorological Development Lab., NOAA, Silver Spring, MD8Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC

9Computer Science Corp., Research Triangle Park, NC10Syneren Technologies Corporation

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Networking with AQ managers and forecasters/researchers

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Good examples: Insights and inspiration

Anne Gobin, Burear Chief, CT DEEP: improved NAM, NAQFC

Jhih-Yuan Yu, EPA ,Taiwan: 臺中國小 1044 µg m-3

Susan Wierman, CEO, MARAMA

Natalie and Connor, San Lorenzo VH

A great thank you to the conference organizers

AIRNow

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OUTLINEImprove PM* forecast by 1st principles

NCEP plans on 3 km horizontal grid spacing for CONUS Q&A: Vertical and compositional distributions? -- intensive campaigns

Wind blown dust – primary PM emission

Anthropogenic fugitive dust

Real-time testing of modulation methodology

Summary and future work

3National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory

* Fann et al. Risk Analysis 2011: PM risk ≥ O3 risk

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Finer horizontal grid resolutions

PBL processesConvective & turbulent mixingLand-Sea interactionFine features: e.g. terrain, urban

Wrf-nmm

Wrf-Post & AqmPrdgen

PREMAQ

CMAQ

GRiB products & graphics

Verification

ICON

BCON

SMOKE

MOBILE6

“grid-2-obs verification and beyond”Kang et al., CMAS 2011

Emissions

Meteorology

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Forecasting support for DISCOVER-AQ

SJV

BW

HOU

5Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Comparison of Wind along flight track of P3B on July 20 2011

Spirals over Wilmington and Edgewood

Model under-predicted wind shear

More frequent calmBias in higher altitudes

Less turbulence may not matter as PBL well-mixed, shallow-convection may matter.

calm bias inPBL topventing

Investigate processes near PBL top Heat-wave 2011

6Air Resources Laboratory

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

12-km (cut from 5X CONUS) 4-km Houston domainComparison of verification results for pm

Finer descriptions helped

TYPE OBS_Mean MOD_MEAN RMSE NME MB NMB RAll_12KM_Dmean 9.34 12.36 8.12 60.17 3.02 32.32 0.27

All_4KM_Dmean 9.34 11.36 6.42 52 2.02 21.62 0.33

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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June 1 –July10 2013

Science questions:

“How do anthropogenicAnd biogenic emissionsInteract and affect AQAnd climate”--- Joost de Gouw

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Comparison between 12 and nested 4 km forecast for June 12 2013

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Bias RMSE

“grid-2-obs verification and beyond” Kang et al., CMAS 2011Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Push towards higher resolution at NCEP

Expr product Targeted next date Remark

GFS T878L64 ~ 22km April 2014

GDAS T574 Enk/GSI ~ 27 km April 2014

GEFS T382L64 ~ 35 km April 2014 ~30 members

NAM 12 km North America Already in place

NAM 3 km CONUS nest July 2014

NAM On demand basis 1.3 km limited domain

Already in place

Fire weather

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Versatility of selecting a limited-area domain of interest

Limited-area domain forecasts are heavily influenced by boundary conditions and their derivation is criticale.g. exo-domain wild fire emissions

~21x

~12x

5x

Agricultural burningprevails in the monthsof March and Aprilin Mexico

HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010

Emission should include Exo- and intra-domain wild fires

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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The Dust Emission Model (FENGSA) Contribution attributable to ARL in CMAQ5.0 release

Modified Owen’s Equation (source: Marticorena et al, 1997):

Effect of non-erodiable elements (Drag partition) (Marticorena et al, 1995):

Threshold Friction Velocities (u*t) (source: Gillette et al.1980, 1982,1988):

Soil typeSand(cm/s)

Loamy Sand

Sandy Loam

Silt Loam

LoamSandy Clay Loam

Silty Clay Loam

Clay Loam

Sandy Clay

Silty Clay

Clay

Desert Land 0.42 0.51 0.66 0.34 0.49 0.78 0.33 0.71 0.71 0.56 0.78

Agricultural 0.28 0.34 0.29 1.08 0.78 0.78 0.64 0.71 0.71 0.56 0.54

)])

10(35.0ln[

)ln(

18.0

0

0

0

s

sd

z

z

Z

f

M

i

N

jjtii uuuSEPS

gAK

1 1

2,*

2** )(F

Effects of rain and snow (Fecan et al, 1999):

)(%*17.0)(%*0014.0'w 2 clayclay Air Resources Laboratory

Tong et al., JGR, (in review)

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Air Resources Laboratory 14

Windblown dust from agricultural land

Washington

--http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards

12:30 p.m, May 3,2010

Washington

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

?Anthropogenic

Unpaved Road

Paved Road

Construction Agriculture

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

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Fugitive Dust

Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009)

Chemical Splitting of Fugitive Dust Dust Contribution to PM “Other”

Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Spring

Fall

CMAQ vs. IMPROVE SW Observations (January 2002)

Air Resources Laboratory 17

Two CMAQ runs: with and without anthropogenic dust emissions; Dust contribution is calculated from the difference;

Fugitive Dust contribution < 1g/m3 Fugitive Dust contribution > 2g/m3

National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Tong et al., Environ. Int. 2009)

18National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory

NAM Physics/Assimilation Upgrades : June 2014

Replace legacy GFDL radiation with RRTMModified gravity wave drag/mountain blocking

• More responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability• Target : Improve synoptic performance w/o adversely impacting

10-m wind forecastsNew version of Betts-Miller-Janjic convection

• Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less• Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent

Ferrier-Aligo microphysics• advection of rime factor

Modified treatment of snow cover/depth• Moister convective profiles, convection triggers less• Target : Improve QPF bias from 12-km parent

Reduce roughness length for 5 vegetation types• Target : Improved 10-m wind in eastern CONUS

Hybrid variational-ensemble GSI analysis

Courtesy: Eric Rogers, Environ. Modeling Center NCEP/NOAA

19National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory

Case Description of NAM CMAQ

Expr Current ops NAM: Hanson Radiation, simpler advection of hydrometeor, no regional/categorical modification of snow cover and roughness, respectively, less tuned gravity wave, convective schemes 3-D VAR assimilation system

As current Expr:CMAQ4.6CB05Aero4ACM2 PBLMobile6 NOx

para2 Upgrade of all of the above* As above

para3 Anthropogenic fugitive dust emission modulated by snow and ice cover fed from NAM

Binary on/off

Real-time testing for up-coming implementation: Expr 2014

*Please see details on previous slide

20National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory

Weather.com

Improved fidelity

21National AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC Air Resources Laboratory

1st Principle approach to holistically improve PM forecast

Proactively looking into NCEP’s push for high resolution NWP:• Participate actively in field campaigns e.g. DISCOVER-AQ and SOAS• Guide vertical and speciation profiles by measurements

Proactively working with NCEP to understand NAM/GFS/NGAC changes• Feedback responsively and responsibly to strengthen EMC/ARL partnership• Integrate meteorological and chemical weather forecasting

Proactively contributing to CMAQ forum and module development• Reinforce the culture e.g., dust module (2012) & fine resolution forecasting• Complement the SIP and regulatory community with forecasting niche (e.g. D.A.)

Proactively promoting satellite products for dynamic emission modeling• Improve climatology e.g. dust source region, forest fuel loading ..• Improve methodology for dynamic adjustment: e.g. OMI NOx

Proactively seeking verification metric applicable for fine resolution forecast• Overcome the hit or miss simplistic metric• Overcome the single value criterion but open to stochastic and tendency metric

Contact: Pius.Lee@noaa.govhttp:www.arl.noaa.gov

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Acknowledgement

James Crawford, NASA, Langley, VA.

Christopher Loughner & Ken Pickering NASA, Greenbelt, MD.

Alex Guenther, NCAR, CO.

Eric Rogers, EMC, NCEP, NOAA

22Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC

Glossary can be found under

Monthly CO emission from wildfire

23Air Resources LaboratoryNational AQ : Feb_10_to_12_2014, Durham, NC