Improving Agricultural Production, Rural
Livelihoods, and Food Security
Background paper for World Bank Report:
Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries
Authorship
Lead Authors:
Rachael McDonnell &
Shoaib Ismail
International Center for Biosaline Agriculture
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
A working outline of this paper can be found in Annex 1
Disclaimer
This text is not for citation. The statements, views, interpretations and findings
expressed in this draft and in all contents herein are entirely those of the authors. They
do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or
the countries they represent.
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Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Current agricultural production systems, rural livelihoods, and food security ................... 4 Impacts of climate change on agricultural production, rural livelihoods and food security9
Details from studies in the region ..................................................................................... 16 Ideas going forward .......................................................................................................... 19 Boxes................................................................................................................................. 21 Annex 1: Preliminary Outline of Chapter ......................................................................... 24
Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 25
Introduction 1
2
Both global and regional climate change modeling exercises have highlighted that 3
MENA is considered one of the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts on 4
account of its water scarcity (Giorgi, 2006, IPCC, 2007; Evans, 2010). Model results 5
suggest that the region will largely become hotter and drier with greater inter-seasonal 6
and inter-annual variability resulting in less water runoff (between 20 -30%) (Milly et al, 7
2005). This will have both direct and indirect impacts on rural economies, agricultural 8
production and food security. The recent profound political changes in the MENA region 9
have been linked to a number of variables including volatile food prices. Given the 10
dependence on food imports in some countries, and exports in others, any changes in 11
climate are likely to have major impacts on their communities and economies. 12
13
Over the last 30 years there has been a steady increase in agricultural productivity both 14
global and in the Middle East North Africa region over the last 30 years, giving average 15
grain yields rising from .. .to .. has resulted from many changes in crop and water 16
management. This has lead to generally improved conditions for much of the population. 17
However these advances may be checked by any changes in precipitation and 18
temperature. There is a growing perception of food insecurity in this region resulting 19
from the changing water scarcity in with many structural changes such as in populations 20
and economics. 21
22
The economy of rural communities is based mainly on the harnessing of natural resources, 23
in particular water and land, and their products and services. Many of farming units are 24
based on low levels of development with little technological input to their production 25
systems. This makes them vulnerable to any exposure to climate and environmental 26
variability, often with little capacity for the system to adjust to change (World Bank, 27
2009). The most at risk are the rural landless and small and marginal farmers. Rural 28
livelihoods are intrinsically linked to water availability and use with the poorest relying 29
heavily on rainfed production systems that are particularly susceptible to droughts, floods, 30
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and shifts in markets and prices. The Arab Human Development report (UNDP, 2009a) 31
highlights both the threats from over-exploitation and variability of water and land, and 32
from food insecurity. Large farmers are buffered from price shocks because they are 33
likely to benefit from the higher agricultural produce prices. 34
35
Food security is defined by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) (2002) as a 36
“situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic 37
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food 38
preferences for an active and healthy life.” It combines four key dimensions - food 39
production and availability, stability of food supplies, access to food, food utilization and 40
(Schmidhuber and Tubiello (2007). Climate change has the potential to disrupt all four of 41
these dimensions in the MENA region, either directly or through socio-economic, trade 42
and stock flows and policies and regulations. 43
44
Food production/availability is critically dependent on local temperature and precipitation 45
conditions and any short-term variability is a major risk factor for both production and 46
rural communities. Changes require farmers to adapt their practices and this adaptation 47
requires resource that could be used for other areas and activities. Whilst many of the 48
countries in the MENA region are heavily dependent on food imports they span a wide 49
range of development situations ranging from low income, through those in middle-50
income range to the high range (the oil rich states). The food consumption levels are 51
generally in the upper middle range and (kcal/person/day) (FAO, 2008). 52
53
54
Current agricultural production systems, rural livelihoods, 55
and food security 56
57
Agricultural Production Systems 58
59
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Dominance of evaporation over precipitation and the impacts on soil moisture - most of 60
the region lacks access to surface water, greatly influencing both water and agricultural 61
management systems. 62
63
Crop production 64
Rainfed production systems 65
Haddad et al (2011) state that rainfed irrigation accounts for two-thirds of the region‟s 66
cropland, and the bulk of its food staples. 67
68
Irrigated production systems 69
Small-scale – Traditional Oasis systems – both natural and human constructed. Problem 70
of supporting such systems using pumped groundwater. Old falaj system is less 71
renewable these days because of over-pumping and declining water table levels. 72
73
Large-scale crop production (agribusiness based on mechanized and modified 74
environments high input of chemicals etc). Some production only for local/regional 75
markets. Others rely on exporting value crops into high-paying countries such as in 76
Europe. There is already a growing disconnect between production activities based on 77
rainfall patterns and amounts. Many of these systems are already largely independent of 78
the constraints of rainfall. 79
80
Livestock production 81
82
Rainfed systems account for almost all of the rangelands in the MENA region (Haddad et 83
al, 2011). 84
85
Small-scale -pastoralist or oasis – often nomadic lifestyle based on traditional rangelands 86
and natural patterns of rainfall and temperature. 87
88
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Large- scale (agribusiness based on mechanized and modified environments). Livestock 89
is increasingly fed on industrial food sub-products. Some production for local/regional 90
markets. Already becoming less dependent on the constraints of rainfall. 91
92
93
Rural livelihoods 94
95
The population in the MENA region is more urbanized than in other developing areas 96
resulting from both natural and historical variables. Yet this urbanization has not been 97
accompanied by a shift of labour from agriculture to services and manufacturing that you 98
would expect. Whilst agriculture has lost its share of value added, rural areas remain 99
centers of low-productivity employment and poverty (World Bank 2010). Rural poverty 100
rates are greater than urban poverty in the MENA countries and often greater than 20% 101
(Iqbal, 2006). 102
103
The rural households tend to rely heavily on climate-sensitive resources and activities 104
such as local water supplies, arable farming, livestock husbandry and fuelwood collection. 105
Small-holder farmers face many risks including those related to weather and markets 106
(Alwang and Norton, 2011). Whilst agriculture is the main activity household income and 107
resources can be enhanced by wood and non-wood forest products from the low-cover 108
forests, and scattered trees and shrubs where they exist and this income is important in 109
countries such as Morocco, Lebanon … (FAO, 2010). For some rural communities the 110
lifestyle is nomadic, with and inordinate amount of time spent by women and children 111
fetching water and fuel wood, which has a direct impact on primary education and 112
healthcare. 113
114
The farming is often subsistence sometimes occupying marginal lands, and in many 115
MENA countries depends heavily on rainfed production systems that are particularly 116
susceptible to droughts, floods and shifts in markets and prices. For both rainfed and 117
irrigated agriculture, any variations in space and time of precipitation can bring great 118
hardship as the recent drought in Syria unfortunately exemplifies (See Box xx). 119
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Variability in rainfall and/or temperature affects soil moisture deficits, and brings crop 120
damage and disease thus increasing the risks to already vulnerable communities. 121
Particularly important are the impacts of changes in evaporation/evapotranspiration on 122
soil moisture availability in rainfed systems. 123
124
In a recent study (World Bank, 2010) it was found that rural poverty could also be 125
explained through a number of more socially related variables that are not just the result 126
of the rural existence. For example although Upper Egypt has only 40% of the population 127
of Egypt, it accounts for 60% of its poverty and 80% of its severe poverty. This is not a 128
result of economic activities alone, but because in this area there is a high „demographic 129
dependency‟ (ratio of dependents to people of working age). In MENA rural areas the 130
decline in fertility rate as been less than in urban areas so ensuring a higher demographc 131
dependency. 132
133
A further influence on MENA poverty levels is a household‟s education level (World 134
Bank, 2010) and in rural areas problems of access to schools is exacerbated by the nature 135
of the often remote and transitory existence. 136
137
138
Food security 139
140
Food security can be analysed at a regional, national and local level 141
142
The definition and variables that affect food security vary enormously in the MENA 143
region. None of the countries are net food exporters, but the degree of dependency on 144
imports is highly variable. Taken as a region, it is shown to be the least food secure in the 145
world with a aggregated dependency of over 55% for its need on food imports. This value 146
masks many variations. The UAE, like many of its GCC neighbours relies heavily on 147
imports to meet its food needs. Around 85% of its food good and nearly all of its basic 148
staples are imported because of the climatic constraints within the country to grow food 149
without heavily exploiting non-renewable groundwater. Furthermore the rapid growth in 150
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the country‟s population from both natural increase and inward migration will ensure this 151
dependency on imports will grow. 152
153
The most important cereals in the MENA region are wheat, maize and barley. The 154
average share of imports in total domestic consumption of maize during 1999-2004 155
ranged from nearly 100% in Jordan, Lebanon and the GCC countries, to 40% in Egypt 156
(UNDP, 2009b). Meanwhile the average shares of imports in total domestic consumption 157
during the same period ranged from 95% for barley in Jordan and the GCC to around 5% 158
in Jordan and Yemen, and around 92% for wheat in Jordan and Yemen, to 2% in Syria. 159
160
In recent years, a number of countries have moved away from a strategy aimed at self-161
sufficiency to one aimed at securing many food commodities through international trade. 162
163
At a more local level, the general values given above mask areas of great food insecurity 164
particularly in rural areas, resulting from a plethora of factors including unequal power 165
relations affecting access to land and water resources, access to markets, access to credit, 166
and limited resources to sustain households and communities through price spikes and 167
other stresses. 168
169
Food insecurity can bring opportunities for farmers within a country if the right policy 170
support is in place. In a recent analysis El-Dukheri et al (2011) examined 1000 rural 171
household in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, government responses to 172
price spikes, price transmission from international to local markets, and the farmer‟s 173
production decisions in response to these changes. The ability of smallholder farmers to 174
benefit from higher domestic prices was limited by various factors; drought, higher input 175
prices (especially fertilizer), and the timing of the price increases in relation to the crop 176
cycle. 177
178
Recent trends by oil-producing nations to make international investment in developing 179
country agriculture (see for example Hallam, 20110). These initiatives are resource 180
seeking rather than market-seeking and involved acquisition of land and actual 181
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production rather than looser forms of joint venture. Investing countries appear to be 182
driven by food security concerns, including price volatility and market risks faced by 183
large food importers. Host countries have been equally keen to attract investment for 184
various potential benefits. 185
186
Recent food price shocks - natural environmental variability in food producing countries 187
affect world market prices, but in the Arab world structural factors such as population 188
and income growth and biofuel demand (Lampietti et al, 2011) 189
190
Impacts of climate change on agricultural production, rural 191
livelihoods and food security 192
193
Studies of long-term climate records for the MENA region have shown that there are 194
already some trends in temperatures. Zhang et al (2005) have shown that across much of 195
the Middle East, using climate information for the period 1950 – 2003, there have been 196
increasing temperatures but no clear trends in precipitation. 197
198
Important to consider the differences between weather and climate. Both impact rural 199
livelihoods, agricultural production and food security in different ways 200
201
Primary Impacts of importance to rural livelihoods, agriculture, and food security 202
This will be finalized once coordinated with Chapter 2: 203
204
Changing precipitation patterns – how much, when and where: need to understand 205
changes in storm track. A poleward shift of Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the 206
Mediterranean storm track are predicted (Bengtsson et al, 2006; Lionello and Giorgi 207
2007; and Black et al 2010) 208
. 209
Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for the Arab region indicate 210
that rainfall in the region will become intense and dry spells will become more 211
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pronounced. The zone of severely reduced rainfall in the Intergovernmental Panel on 212
Climate Change (IPCC) Report (2007a) projections extends throughout the 213
Mediterranean region and northern Sahara and inland from the Atlantic coast. 214
Evans (2010) using the MM5 regional modeling system for first and last five years of 21st 215
century found that the seasonal change in precipitation show the largest decreases in the 216
Eastern Mediterranean. The largest increases will be over Saudi Arabia during summer 217
and autumn associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moving 218
northwards. 219
220
Changing extreme precipitation events: 221
Droughts and floods: Climate change is expected to exacerbate the intensity and 222
frequency of such extreme weather events (IPCC 2007b) – using the Palmer Drought 223
Severity Index (PDSI) shows a large drying trend over the Northern Hemisphere, 224
particularly over north Africa. 225
Some North Africa countries (Algeria and Morocco), which are projected to face drier 226
conditions overall, have experienced many flash floods in recent years (Elasha, 2010). 227
228
Changing temperatures – how much, when, where: - length of growing season; start and 229
finish of growing season 230
Evans (2010) using the MM5/CCSM regional model for first and last five years of 21st 231
century found that temperature was not predicted to increase uniformly across the Middle 232
East with much of the sptial distribution explained by changes in moisture availability. 233
Winter demonstrates the smallest changes with most of the temperatures predicted to rise 234
by 2 degrees. The greatest predicted temperatures are along the Eastern Mediterranean 235
and Red Sea coasts. 236
237
Evans (2010) found the largest temperatures increases in the summer with an increase of 238
around 6 degrees being common. The largest projected temperature increases are over the 239
Iranian Plateau of around 10 degrees. 240
241
242
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Kunstmann et al (2007) using dynamic downscaling of ECHAM4 time slices (1961-1990 243
and 2070-2099) of global climate scenario B2 and subsequent hydrological modeling for 244
the Middle East and the Upper Jordan catchment. The results showed a mean annual 245
temperature increase of 4.5°C and 25% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the 246
mountainous part of the Upper Jordan catchment. 247
248
249
Changing extreme temperatures – how much, where and when: 250
251
Secondary Impacts of importance to rural livelihoods, agriculture, and food security 252
253
Need to be cross-correlated with Chapter 3 on impact on water resources. 254
255
Changing evaportranspiration; how much, when, where. Increases and decreases affect 256
soil moisture deficit and the amount of water available for plant growth – whether crops 257
or pasture/forage. 258
259
Changing surface water flow; how much, when, where and of what quality (salinity, 260
drainage water returns). Predictions are that flows 261
262
Changing groundwater recharge: how much, when, where and of what quality – changes 263
in natural and human induced conditions (increase pesticide, fertilizer use etc) 264
The anticipated increase in surface temperature and reduction in rainfall will result in a 265
30-70% reduction in recharge (Dolle and Florke, 2005). Influences how much is 266
sustainably available for irrigation over the short and medium term and so what crops and 267
management practices are possible. 268
269
Kunstmann et al (2007) using dynamic downscaling of ECHAM4 time slices (1961-1990 270
and 2070-2099) of global climate scenario B2 and subsequent hydrological modeling for 271
the Middle East and the Upper Jordan catchment. Results indicated that total runoff at the 272
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outlet of the catchment would decrease by 23% accompanied by a significant decrease in 273
groundwater recharge. 274
275
Changing soil nature: where and how much - moisture, change in carbon content, 276
change in salinity, changes in 277
Given the high input of water use and the limited naturally occurring soil water, any 278
changes to precipitation patterns 279
280
Changes from sea-level rise – poses a severe threat to low-lying coastal areas under a 281
temperature increase of 1-3°C. Particularly prone are agriculture land in Kuwait, Qatar, 282
Libya, Tunisia, Bahrain and Egypt (see chapter xx). In the latter the extremely low 283
elevation of arable cropland in the Nile Delta is particularly prone as most of the 50km 284
wide land strip along the river is less than 2m above sea-level and is protected from 285
flooding by only a 1 – 10km wide coastal sand belt (El-Raey 2009; Elasha, 2010). If this 286
is eroded the impacts would be serious. 287
288
289
General impacts on agricultural production, rural livelihoods and food security in the 290
MENA region – given in table below291
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292
293
294
Impact of increase in mean temperature (Source: adapted from FAO, 2008)
Impact on food system
assets
Impact on food system
activities
Impact on food security
outcomes
Impact on other human well-being
outcomes
Production assets:
Trend changes in suitability of
land for crop and livestock
production
Gradual loss of biodiversity
Trend changes in vectors and
natural habits of plant and
animal pests and diseases
Storage, transport and
marketing infrastructure:
Strain on electricity grids, air
conditioning and cold storage
capacity
Producing food:
Immediate crop and livestock
losses due to heat and water
stress
Lower yields from dairy
animals
Reduced labor productivity
due to heat stress
Trend impacts on uncertain
conditions on location,
availability of water and
adoption of new cropping
patterns by farmers
Storing and processing food:
Upgrade in cooling and
storage facilities required to
maintain food quality at
higher temperatures
Food availability (production,
distribution and exchange):
Reduced production of food
crops and livestock products in
affected areas
Local losses could have
temporary effect on local
markets
Reduction in global supplies
likely to cause market prices to
rise
Food accessibility (allocation,
affordability, preference)
Impacts on incomes, prices and
affordability uncertain
Changes in preference
uncertain
Livelihood
Trend changes in vectors and natural
habitats of pests and disease that affect
human health and productivity
Social values and behaviors:
Acceptance of a greater degree of risk and
uncertainty as a natural condition of life
Migration to urban areas for more certain
income
295
296
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297
Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and drought) (Source: adapted
from FAO, 2008)
Impact on food system assets Impact on food system
activities
Impact on food security
outcomes
Impact on other human well-being
outcomes
Production assets:
Loss of perennial crops and
vegetative cover of grazing and
fuel wood due to water stress and
increasing fire hazard
Loss of livestock due to water
stress and lack of feed
Loss of productive asses due to
hardship sales
Changes in rates of soil moisture,
retention and aquifer recharge
Trend changes in suitability of land
for crop and livestock production
Trend changes in vectors and
natural habitats of plant and
animal pests and diseases
Food preparation assets:
Lack of water for cooking
Lack of vegetation for fuel
Producing food:
Immediate crop and
livestock losses due and
water stress
Trend declines in yields
Changes in irrigation
requirements
Storing and processing
food:
Less need for chemical to
preserve stored grain
Scarcity of water for food
processing
Distributing food:
Easier movement of
vehicles on dry land
Food availability (production,
distribution and exchange):
Declines in production
Wild foods less available
Pressure on grain reserves
Decrease in food exports/increase
in food imports
Increase need for food aid
Food accessibility (allocation,
affordability, preference)
Local increase in food prices in
drought-affect areas
Loss of farm income and non-farm
employment
Preferred foods not available or too
costly
Food system stability:
Great instability of food supply,
food prices and agriculturally-based
incomes
Livelihood
Decline in expenditure for other basin
needs – clothing, shelter, health,
education
Trend changes in vectors and natural
habitats of pest and diseases that affect
human health and productivity
Social values and behaviors:
Food scarcity strain ability to meet
reciprocal food-sharing obligations
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298
Gradual change in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain) (Source: adapted from FAO, 2008)
Impact on food system
assets
Impact on food system
activities
Impact on food security
outcomes
Impact on other human well-being
outcomes
Production assets:
Changes in rates of soil
moisture retention and
aquifer recharge
Increase in proportion of
population expose to water
scarcities
Changes in the locations
where investment in
irrigation is economically
feasible
Trend changes in suitability
of land for crop and
livestock production
Trend changes in vectors
and natural habitats of plan
and animal pests and
diseases
Producing food:
Trend impacts on yields
uncertain, conditional on
location, availability of
water and adoption of new
cropping patterns by
farmers
Consuming food:
Changes in consumption
patterns may occur, in
response to changes in
relative prices
Food availability (production,
distribution and exchange):
Some local losses virtually
certain, but their likely
geographic distribution
within MENA is not known
Food accessibility (allocation,
affordability, preference)
Any increases in the costing
of water may cause food
prices to rise
Greater instability of food
supply, food prices and
agriculturally-based
incomes is likely
Livelihood
Changes in geographic distribution of
vulnerability
Social values and behaviors:
Acceptance of a greater degree of risk
and uncertainty as a natural condition
of life
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299
Details from studies in the region 300
301
Crop production 302 Rain fed production – 303
The limited soil moisture availability resulting from an increased length of the dry season, 304
and increasing evapotranspiration will not support the production systems of the current 305
systems. Evans 2009, using a regional climate change model and the A2 SRES scenario, 306
estimated for the Middle East region alone there would be decrease of over 170 000km2 307
in viable rainfed agriculture land by the late-century. This will be exacerbated during the 308
predicted increased number and length of periods of drought. 309
310
Irrigation agriculture is primarily dependent on groundwater. In many countries this is a 311
fossil reserve and is the key strategic reserve underpinning their water security. IPCC 312
report suggests that according to four models, groundwater recharge will decrease 313
dramatically, by more than 70% - between now and 2050 along the southern 314
Mediterranean. This will have potential great impact on the ability of many countries to 315
irrigate their crop production systems – both traditional oasis and small- and large-scale 316
irrigated systems. 317
318
In North Africa the current and growing reliance on irrigation is likely to be increased 319
under climate change leading to a greater disconnect with precipitation. But this brings 320
with it a number of risks a recent Sahara and Sahel Observatory (OSS) report highlighted 321
(2007): 322
In increase in demand for irrigation water with the risk of conflicts between farmers 323
over water rights 324
A growth in demand for fertilizers with increased risk of groundwater pollution 325
Lack of treatment of grey water 326
Water shortages resulting from exhaustion or pollution of groundwater 327
Increased pressure on aquifers and the risks if transnational conflicts over water 328
rights. 329
330
331
Due to complex interaction of many factors, crop growing may become unsustainable in 332
some areas. Crop models indicate that maize yields in North Africa could fall by between 333
15 and 25% with an 3°C rise in temperature although the CO2 fertilization effect may 334
reduce these impacts. Yield losses might be expected to affect agricultural productivity. 335
(FAO, 2009) 336
337
Predictions of the impacts and the value of change have been generated for a number of 338
countries by Cline (2007) using different modeling techniques. Table x highlights both 339
the predicted losses and gains for a selection of countries. 340
341
342
343
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Country Farm
area
(1000
ha)
Output
per ha
(2003
dollars)
Output
(millions
of 2003
dollars)
Impact without carbon fertilization Preferred estimates Change in
Output(millions of 2003
dollars)
Ricardian Crop models Without
CO2
fertilization
(%)
Basis With CO2
fertilization
(%)
Without
carbon
fertilization
With
carbon
fertilization Estimate
(%)
Basis Estimate
(%)
Grouping
Algeria 8,459 787 6,653 -46.7 2 -25.3 5 -36.0 1 -26.4 -2,394 -1,756
Egypt 3,751 3,516 13, 188 53.5 2 -30.9 11 11.3 1 28.00 1,494 3,696
Iraq 4,591 370 1,697 -67.8 1 -27.9 25 -41.1 2 -32.2 -697 -547
Morocco 9,283 801 7,434 -51.0 2 -27.0 4 -39.0 1 -29.9 -2,899 -2,219
Saudi
Arabia
4046 2654 10737 -9.8 1 -27.9 25 -21.9 2 -10.2 -2,351 -1,093
Table Preferrd estimates of impact of baseline global warming by the 2080s on agriculture – by country 344
Source: Cline, 2007. 345
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Livestock production 346 347
Traditional Rangeland Production –. These areas are likely to be extremely vulnerable 348
as they are located mostly in marginal areas (Elasha, 2010), with less available soil 349
moisture, leading to degraded land. Decline in available moisture will greatly affect 350
nomadic system over a wide area. Evans (2009) predicted that by the end of the 21st 351
century the increase in the length of the dry season will reduce the length of time that 352
rangelands can be grazed. This will be particularly pronounced in large parts of Syria and 353
Iraq where is it predicted that there will be a significant increase in the length of the dry 354
season by around 2 months. This will increase the need for supplementary water and 355
feedstuffs or decreasing the herd sizes. 356
357
In the more temperate areas within the region, temperature increase may lead to an 358
increase in pasture production, with corresponding increase in livestock production. The 359
need to house livestock will benefit from warmer winters, particularly in the higher 360
altitudes although greater summer heat stress though is likely to have a negative effects. 361
362
Livestock pest and disease distribution and their transmission patterns will be altered, but 363
this is relatively unknown. 364
365 366
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367
368
369
Sea level rise and inundation – World Bank Report Dasgupta et al (2007). Using GIS 370
software to overlay the agricultural extent data set (GAE-2) from IFPRI with inundation 371
zones from 1-5 m based on coastal terrain models (CIAT SRTM 90 meters DEM data). 372
For the MENA area 373
374
Inundation
height
1m 2m 3m 4m 5m
% of total
area
1.15 1.70 2.26 2.77 3.23
Egypt 12.5% 35%
375
At a more disaggregated basis, the countries likely to be most affected are Qatar (most 376
significant impact), UAE and Kuwait. The largest agriculturally engaged population to be 377
impacted is in Egypt in the rich agricultural area of the Nile Delta where a 1 m inundation 378
would affect 10% of population and 5m affecting 20%. Agricultural – severe disruptions. 379
380
Increased salinization of aquifers and soils. 381
382
383
Ideas going forward 384
385
The challenge is in managing the risks involved and key concepts involved are:– 386
vulnerability; resilience, robustness, sustainability, regime shift, threshold and feedback 387
(Cuming, 2011). The same changes in climate variables can bring different consequences 388
for different areas – with the most vulnerable groups the least able to develop risk 389
management strategies. In addition to climate changes, the MENA region has many 390
other challenges that will exacerbate the impacts on agricultural production, rural 391
livelihoods and food security. Predicted increases in population in both the rural and 392
urban areas, changes in per capita consumption food patterns and quantities, water 393
scarcity etc will all impact in different ways to (add table for all the countries making up 394
the MENA). In addition many of the region‟s irrigation systems are already under 395
considerable environmental strain due to salinity, water logging, or overexploitation of 396
groundwater and there is little scope for further exploitation. 397
398
399
From the IPCC (2007) adaptation may be viewed as anticipatory or reactive. Anticipatory 400
adaptation strategies are implemented before the initial impact occurs – so we need to 401
know information on what is likely to occur. Reactive adaptation is less well-thought out 402
and is designed and implemented in response to initial impacts. For example people start 403
using natural resources before they are mature – immature woodland, plants and animals 404
(OSS, 2007) etc. 405
406
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407
Need to consider programs at a number of different levels: 408
409
A. local – capabilities and practices developed and implemented by societies to 410
survive over time, particularly during extremes droughts/floods 411
B. national - governments need to have in place supporting policy and infrastructure 412
(economic and physical) 413
C. global trading regimes - to ensure that changes in comparative advantage translate 414
into unimpeded trade flows to balance world supply and demand. 415
416
417
Agricultural production 418 1) New plant species and varieties – drought and salt tolerant – for both crop and 419
forage production 420
2) Using more marginal quality water – saline and treated wastewater 421
3) More aggressive support for increasing water productivity – field conservation 422
methods, supplemental irrigation, water harvesting, groundwater irrigation, 423
drainage 424
4) Greater investment in irrigation for intensive agriculture where water resource 425
permit – balancing rainfed and irrigated agriculture portfolio 426
5) Management of domestic and agricultural water to maximize benefits of 427
precipitation – check dams, rainwater harvesting stone bunds etc 428
6) Better management of evapotranspiration where possible using protected 429
agriculture 430
7) Managing demand for agricultural water by changing diets and reducing post-431
harvest loss 432
8) Reducing water through trade by importing from countries with higher water 433
productivity 434
9) Greater use of alternative feed sources for livestock such as feed blocks made 435
from crop by-products 436
10) Drought monitoring and forecasting through enhanced information sources 437
11) Reducing water losses in different sectors 438
12) Improving crop productivity – increase yield for volume of water, or reducing 439
water 440
13) Re-allocating water from lower to higher value use in agriculture 441
14) Greater use of alternative fuels for generating electricity use in food processing 442
and distribution 443
444
445
446
Rural Livelihoods 447 The challenges facing smallholder farmers in the Arab region are many and include those 448
relating to weather and markets. 449
450 15) Support of social capital – traditional solidarity based on use of religious and 451
traditional ethical mechanisms. 452
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16) Broader livelihood agenda to increase assets of the poor. Raise incomes, increase 453
voice and reduce risk and vulnerability from climate- diversification of economic 454
activities 455
17) Support for resettlement schemes from high-risk to low-risk areas 456
18) Use of degraded land for forests using salt-tolerant and drought-tolerant species, 457
etc to increase wood and non-wood products for rural populations and help 458
counteract negative effects of climate change and improve local water cycle. 459
19) Disaster reduction and risk management – early warning, emergency responses 460
and recovery 461
462
463
Food Security 464 465
20) Re-evaluate ideas of food security and international trade. 466
21) Develop multi-sectoral policies that address economic development problems 467
including access for the most food-insecure communities and households. 468
22) The region‟s high dependence on food imports, largely as a consequence of the 469
meager agricultural resources makes it necessary to examine its food and 470
agriculture futures within the context of the global food and agriculture economy. 471
23) International investments in developing country agriculture 472
473
Moving forward – broad-based economic development is central to improvements in 474
human well-being, including sustainable food security and resilience to climate change 475
(Nelson et al, 2010). 476
477
In many ways the amount of water allocated to agriculture and water management 478
choices will determine to a large extent the impacts of climate change on agriculture, 479
food security and rural livelihoods. 480
481
482
483
Boxes 484
485
Box Tunisia Climate Change Impacts 486
Climate projections for Tunisia were constructed on the basis of results of the HadCM3 487
model until 2020 and 2050. The results are modeled on regional scenarios with a 1961-488
1990 base period. This period was one of strong climate variability. Regional impacts 489
The South will be subject o highest increases in annual temperatures and largest 490
reduction in annual rainfall. Decline in average rainfall in both humid and dry years. A 491
stronger increase in the number of dry years 492
493
The Centre of Tunisia will be subject to the highest rise in temperature and reduction in 494
annual rainfall is important. The variability in rainfall will decrease relative to the base 495
period. 496
497
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The Northern Region will be subject to the smallest increases in annual and seasonal 498
temperatures and the smallest reductions in rainfall. The variability is stable relative to 499
the base period, and there is a slight reduction in the number of extremely dry and 500
extremely humid years. 501
502
Consequences for Agriculture (Tunisian Republic 2007 Ministry for Agriculture and 503
Water Resources GTZ; Nasr et al, 2008.) 504
Results are calculated with respect to policy makers‟ objectives until 2016. With the 505
predicted increase in successive years of drought it is predicted that olive oil production, 506
one of the key crops for Tunisia, will be hit by an average fall of 50% towards 2030 and 507
2050 with the area under non-irrigated cultivation likely to almost halve by 508
approximately 800 000 ha particularly n the centre and south. In contrast during favorable 509
rainfall years, production will increase by 20%. The likely move towards increased 510
irrigation is likely to lead to increasingly stressed non-renewable aquifers (particularly in 511
the South). In the coastal zone of the north production is more likely to be indirectly 512
affected by higher salinity water tables, and saline intrusion. 513
514
Similar patterns of change will be founding livestock production during drought years. 515
The Centre and South will likely see a large fall in numbers of cattle, sheep and goats 516
being carried. Even in the North it is predicted that there will be a fall of 20%. In wetter 517
years the livestock sector will likely benefit from a completive increase in output of 10%. 518
519
Cereal production – during high occurrence of successive years of drought an average fall 520
of 200 000 ha suitable for production in Centre and South. 521
Floods will bring fall in production of 13% in 2016 and 2030 522
Favourable rain years – increase in output of possibly more than 20% 523
524
Box Abu Dhabi (Environment Agency Abu Dhabi, 2009) 525
Abu Dhabi is largest of the seven Emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates. It has 526
a hyper-arid climate with little surface runoff or groundwater recharge. Its current food 527
production systems reflect a push in the last 25 years to increase self-sufficiency using 528
groundwater as a principal input. As with many MENA countries, currently over 70% of 529
total water consumption is used in agriculture 530
531
Given the relatively extreme temperatures in the summer (>45oC), the growing season is 532
centred on the cooler winter months, which also coincides with the main precipitation 533
events. Any changes in winter climate that include an increase in temperatures and 534
changes in precipitation could lead to even greater exploitation of the strategic 535
groundwater reserve. 536
537
In policy changes focused on improving water management, and using a variety of 538
instruments including, removal of subsidies, targeted subsidies, and bans, as well as 539
extensive farmers‟ extension services, the government is shifting the whole agricultural 540
sector to less water demanding species, or those that are salt of drought tolerant. There 541
has been a short lead-time with the issues and the reasoning for the changes in policy 542
covered extensively in newspapers and other media. This has ensured clarity in direction. 543
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The change in policy now will ensure the agricultural sector is already better positioned 544
to adapt to climate change. 545
546
547
548
Box Syria Drought Response (United Nations, 2010) 549
A fourth consecutive year of drought has hit north-eastern Syria. According to 550
Government and United Nations estimates, 1.3 million inhabitants are affected and 800 551
000 are severely affected. The impacts of the drought are being exacerbated by the 552
impact of high food and fuel prices, the unrest in the region and the global financial 553
crisis. On average incomes for the drought affected population has decreased by over 554
90% over the past few years and even worse, their assets and sources of livelihood have 555
been lost or irremediably compromised. 556
557
The direct consequences of the drought include decreased food intake, reduced capacity 558
to restore livelihoods, massive internal displacement towards cities and alarming school 559
dropout rates in some areas. Most families have not consumed animal proteins in 560
months. Daily meals have been reduced from three to one for adults and to two for 561
children. Malnutrition is an increasingly serious concern. 562
563
The Drought Response plan is being enacted by a number of different agencies and aimed 564
at three levels of beneficiaries: 565
566
Geographical level targeting: operation being implemented in the agroclimatic zones 567
where there is a high level deterioration of vegetation cover 568
569
Community-level targeting: In agroclimatic zone 5 the most vulnerable among the 570
affected communities are targeted, based on the levels of crop failure, livestock depletion, 571
lack of potable water, remoteness from public services, levels of internal displacement, 572
and school dropout rates. E.G. Food is being distributed through primary schools. 573
574
Household-level targeting: targeted beneficiaries will be the most vulnerable among the 575
rural households of severely affected small-scale farmers and/or herders who lost at least 576
two consecutive rain-fed crops and/or over 80% of their animal stock, with no access to 577
irrigation and not alternative sources of income. Targeted supplementary feeding is aimed 578
at households with children under-five, and pregnant or lactating women. 579
580
581
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Annex 1: Preliminary Outline of Chapter 582
583 This original chapter outline was developed and agreed upon by the authors in January 2011, at a 584 workshop in Lebanon jointly prepared by the League of Arab States and the World Bank. 585 586
1. Describe current rural livelihoods, production systems and state of agriculture 587 - Nature of production systems and livelihoods (table of types of rural livelihoods) 588 - Current productivity rates of crops grown in the region 589 - Current livelihood assets: including capital (e.g. cultural capital – traditional agricultural methods 590
and how farmers have coped with change), successes and failures. 591 - Shifts in agriculture use (not related to land use) 592 - Impacts on livestock and aquaculture, if any 593 - Current policies and institutional structures 594 - Differential access to different types of assets, leading to different levels of vulnerability 595
596
2. Sources of vulnerability under climate change ("primary and secondary") 597 What does climate change mean in this region? Main impacts that will affect rural livelihoods and 598 food security: increased temperature, increased ETP, changing precipitation patterns, sea water 599 intrusions …. 600
- Increasing water scarcity; potential future impact and identified current instances (e.g. insert box 601 on drought and drought-driven migration in Syria and others) 602
- Water quality and quantity and its impact on agriculture (including the fossil groundwater) – crop 603 water use efficiency, crop tenures as a result of climate change. 604
- Soil degradation and desertification, particularly salinization, change in land use. 605 - Predicted changes in productivity rates 606
607
3. Adaption strategies for coping with climate change and constraints 608 - For rural livelihoods and sustaining agriculture (food security) 609 - Changes in irrigation technology and adoption of new technologies (research and development; 610
investment; education/training); changes in crop selection and cropping patterns; production 611 systems (from food to feed, fuel, biofuel/bioenergy, agricultural residues…. etc.); other potential 612 „alternate‟ agricultural systems (conservation agriculture, agroforestry system, etc). 613
- Case for biosaline agriculture (management of poor quality water) – options and potentials 614 (technological and economical) 615
- New and emerging markets – short and long term impacts. 616 - Prioritizing food security versus improving rural livelihood and the balance between the two. 617 - Collaboration between Arab countries for food production (brief on current virtual water 618
practices and how to minimize and expand regional cooperation). 619 - Constraints related to adaptation process. 620 621
4. Case studies in the context of MENA region 622 623
5. Key messages 624 - Broad 'guidelines' (overarching thoughts about ways to look at the issues on a regional level) 625 - Specific policy recommendations resulting from case studies (related to countries/regions). 626
627
628
629
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