In Press
• CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control• CFP aims for smallest instead of optimal stock size• Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty• The precautionary principle is perverted• Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and maintain overcapacity
Towards Healthy Fish Stocksand Profitable Fisheries
Rainer Froese
IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, [email protected]
EC, 22 June 2010, Brussels
Overview
• Some definitions
• Global status of stocks
• History of stocks and fisheries
• Present status of European stocks
• Ecosystem-approach in fisheries
• Harvest Control Rules for future fisheries
• Summary
Some Definitions
• Stocks are the exploited part of populations• Biomass (B) refers to the sum of body weights of
mature individuals (= spawning stock biomass)• MSY is the maximum sustainable yield or catch• F is the fraction of the stock dying from fishing (=
fishing mortality)
• Fmsy is the F that produces MSY at the stock size Bmsy (less if the stock is smaller, more if it is larger)
• TAC is the total allowable catch per year per stock
• Global catches can increase 40% under effective management
• Subsidies (27 billion) exceed value added
• Commercial stocks are headed towards collapse under current management
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Years
Pe
rce
nt
of
Wo
rld
Fis
he
rie
s
26%5.1 years
38%
4.3 years
31%5.0 years
22%4.1 years
Undeveloped
Developing
Fully exploited
Overfished
Collapsed
?
Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002
Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ?Worm et al., Science 2006
Sto
cks
(%)
2048 ?
Rainer FroeseAmanda Stern-PirlotKathleen Kesner-Reyes
• The global number and percentage of stocks producing less than 10% of their maximum landings continues to increase
• New stocks are getting less, approaching zero after 2020
Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009
Froese et al. Marine Policy 2009
History of European Stocks and Fisheries
Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR
• Decline of stocks by 94%• Catches are half of sail-powered trawlers in
1889• Effort per kg fish today is 17 times higher• Fisheries are economically bankrupt
UK bottom trawl fishery on cod, haddock, plaice
Landings since 1889
Landings per effort
Proxy for size of exploited stocks
Thurstan et al. 2010
May 2010
• Bottom trawling in the Kattegat led to the collapse of cod and the disappearance of haddock and pollock
• In the adjacent Öresund, where trawling has been banned for 70 years, all commercial stocks are in good shape with healthy age structure and high densities, despite gillnet fishery and many anglers
Present Status of European Stocks
Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR
• The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY)
• Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015
• With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years
Rebuilding European Fish Stocks
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Mea
n s
tock
siz
e
TargetPrecautionary
Overfished
Unsafe
Trend
Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.
Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Fis
hin
g p
ress
ure
(F/F
msy
)
TargetPrecautionary
Overfishing
TrendThreatening the stock
Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be
missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010
UNCLOS CFP FAO/UNFSA JPOI Damanaki
Ecosystem-Approach in Fisheries Management
Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR
• Reducing catch to Fmsy is good but insufficient
• Stock size may increase seven-fold if fish are caught after multiple spawning, at around 2/3 of their maximum length
• Large stock size means low cost of fishing
Age-structure of North Sea Cod, with same catch but different minimum size
For a given catch, the least number of fish have to be killed at Lopt
Current
Fmsy
Fmsy & Lopt
Same catch, better age structure
Stock size can increaseseven-fold
Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries
Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR
Generic Harvest Control Rules for European FisheriesRainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann
Under review
• Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks
• If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%
Harvest Control Rule Schema
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B msy
Ca
tch
/ M
SY
B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy
DepletedZone
OverfishingZone
BufferZone
TargetZone
MSY
0.91 MSY
Fisheries in 2007
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Biomass / B msy
Cat
ch /
MS
Y
B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Spawner Biomass (1000 t)
Lan
din
gs
(100
0 t)
1960
1960
1962
19621967
1967
1977
1978
1978
1.3 B msy
North Sea Herring 1960 - 1978
North Sea-Herring 1979 - 2008
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Spawner Biomass (1000 t)
Lan
din
gs
(100
0 t)
2008
2008
1985
1985 1987
1983
20032003
1979
1.3 B msy
1987
Critique of Planned F-based Management
• Fmsy is taken as target, not limit, thus violating UNFSA and the precautionary principle
• Fishing at Fmsy is less profitable than at Fmey • Fishing at Fmsy results in substantially smaller
stocks, violating the ecosystem approach• Fishing at Fmsy results in strongly fluctuating
catches with high uncertainty for the industry• Fishing at Fmsy provides strong incentives for
overcapacity• Fishing at TAC = 0.9 MSY solves these
problems
ICES F-based Mangement
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Biomass / B msy
F /
Fm
sy o
r C
atch
/ M
SY
B msyB pa
F
Catch
North Sea Herring Once More
0
200
400
600
800
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Spawner Biomass (1000 t)
Lan
din
gs
(100
0 t)
19601971 1967
1966
1977
1978
1978
B msy
F -based HCR
Proposed HCR
F-based Management would not have prevented the collapse of herring.
Summary
• Reducing F to Fmsy in 2014 in four equal steps (Damanaki proposal) is good and needs all the support it can get
• Further reducing F to 0.9 Fmsy in 2015 would satisfy UNFSA and the precautionary principle
• Using a fixed TAC (= 0.9 MSY) instead of a fixed F would stabilize catches and stocks, facilitate communication with stakeholders, and go a long way towards the ecosystem approach
