Technische Universität München

In situ networks and measurements - European phenological networks

Prof. Dr. Annette Menzel1, Dr. This Rutishauser2, Dr. Elisabeth Koch3

1ÖkoklimatologieWissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan für Ernährung,

Landnutzung und UmweltTechnische Universität Münchenmenzel@forst.tu-muenchen.de

2 University of Bern, Switzerland3 ZAMG, Austria

An International Workshop on the Validation of Satellite-based Land Surface Phenology Products, 18.6.2010

Technische Universität München

Europe

Technische Universität München

Historical networks in Europe

• Famous single site centential data series, such as Marsham record in the UK, grape harvest dates in Central Europe, Swiss phenological records ..

• Carl von Linné, the father of modern plant phenology, established the first phenological network in Sweden (1750-1752)

• Network of the Societas Meteorological Palatina (1781-1792)

• International Phenological Gardens since 1957• Many networks established by national meteorological and

hydrological services, breakdown after world war II, partly recovered, new cuts after 1990

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Information about current networks

• Schwartz 2003 book• EPN Phenological meta data base

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~rachimow/epn/html/frameok.html• COST725 www.cost725.org

database at the ZAMG• PEP 725

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PEP 725

5 years programme of EUMETNET and ZAMG

D1 Development, operations and management of the PEP725 database

D2 Development, operations and management of the PEP725 webportal

Participants & PartnersSwedish National Phenology Network SWE-NPN, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Instituto Agrario di San Michele all’Adige, GDR 29687 Observatoire Des Saisons, Finnish Forest Research Institute Muhos Research Unit, Lithuanian Arricultural institute, Skre Natur- og Miljøvurdering, Trinity College Dublin, Wageningen Universitynational meteorological services from: ZAMG - Austria, RMI - Belgium, DHMZ – Croatia, FMI – Finland, DWD – Germany, OMSZ – Hungary, Met Èireann – Ireland, Met.no – Norway, IMGW – Poland, RHMSS – Serbia, EARS – Slovenia, AEMet – Spain, MeteoSwiss – Switzerland, CHMI - Czech Rep., NMAR – Romania, SHMÚ - Slovak Rep

Pan European Phenology DBPan European Phenology DB

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Technische Universität München

PEP coverage and observation scheme

stations in 201005

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PEP database structure and quality control

Technische Universität München

The footprint of climate change

IPCC 2007, WG II, Ch 01 / Rosenzweig et al. Nature 2008

Firs

t to

form

ally link

obs

erve

d gl

obal

chan

ges to

hum

an-in

duce

d clim

ate

chan

ge

Technische Universität München

Agriculture- 0.4 days / decade

Bud burst / flowering:- 2.5 days / decade

Menzel et al. GCB 2006, IPCC AR4 WGII Ch.01 2007

3210-1-2-3

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

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1000

500

0

Regression coefficient

Fre

quen

cy

Agricultural

3210-1-2-3

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

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1000

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0

Regression coefficient

Fre

quen

cy

Leafing and flowering

3210-1-2-3

4500

4000

3500

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2000

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0

Regression coefficient

Fre

quen

cy

Fall

3210-1-2-3

4500

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Regression coefficient

Fre

quen

cy

Fruiting

57% 13% sig.

43% 6% sig.

75% 25% sig.

25% 3% sig.

48% 12% sig.

52% 15% sig.

78% 31% sig.

22% 3% sig.

Fruit ripening:- 2.4 days / decade

Autumn:+ 0.2 days / decade

n~120.0001971-2000

Phenological response in Europe (COST725)

Technische Universität München

Temperature response

Menzel et al. 2006

Farmers activitiesLeafing, floweringFruit ripeningLeaf colouring

Technische Universität München

0.100.050.00

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

Trend in temperature in previous month

Mea

n t

ren

d in

ph

ases

A

E

GB

GB

SLO

SK

FINRUS

PL

N

MK

IRL

GR

EST

EDK

D

CZHR

CH

B

ASpring phases: leaf unfoldingfloweringmigration

R2 = 47%

Europe - Phenological change pattern matches climate change

Menzel et al. GCB 2006

Technische Universität München

Locations of significant changes in observations

IPCC 2007, WGII, SPM

“It is likely that warming caused by human activities has had a discernible impact on many physical and biological systems at the global level”

“Many natural systems on all continents and some oceans are affected by regional climate change (rising temperatures)”

Technische Universität MünchenLocation and consistency of observed changes with warming

Rosenzweig, .. Menzel, .. Estrella, .., Nature, et al. 2008

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The inherent problem

• Agriculture – Forestry • Canopy – understory• Subpixel mixing• LULC • Farm management• ....

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NOAA AVHRR captures snow drop & forsythia flowering

0

30

60

90

120

150

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Me

an

on

se

t [d

ay

of

the

ye

ar]

Aesculus hippocastanum (U) Quercus robur (U) Fagus sylvatica(U) Prunus avium (B)

Betula pendula (U) Picea abies (M) Forsythia (B) Galanthus nivalis (B)

046 BEG 021 BST 022 AU 040 SCH

275

425

POSITIVE

Technische Universität München

NOAA AVHRR are more variable in autumn

POSITIVE

180

210

240

270

300

330

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Mea

n o

nse

t [day

of t

he

year

]

Quercus robur (C) Fagus sylvatica (C) Betula pendula (C)

Aesculus hippocastanum (C) Sambucus nigra (F) Aesculus hippocastanum (F)

196 E 093 BST 094 AU

091 E 194 EM

Technische Universität München

NOAA AVHRR growing season is too long ...

POSITIVE

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

YEAR

DA

YS

Quercus robur (V) Aesculus hippocastanum (V) Fagus sylvatica (V) Betula pendula (V)

425

Technische Universität München

Plant phenological metrics

• Eye-observed vs.Reflectance measurements

• Unit [DoY]

• spatial scale

• Eye-observed vs.Reflectance measurements

• Unit [DoY]

• spatial scale

Phenological observations SatellitesLSP(Land Surface Phenology)

Models

Species-specific Phases

Phenological Metric

“Green-up index”

• ground-truth

• modelverification

• representativityof single species

• Landscape view

• ground-truth

• modelverification

• representativityof single species

• Landscape view

Technische Universität München

Plant phenological metrics at a regional scale 2x2°

Ground plant phenologyLand Surface Phenology (NDVI)Temperature

• high correlation at large scale

• local scale?

Rutishauser et al. 2007, JGR; Stöckli & Vidale 2004, IJRemSen; Studer et al. 2007, IJBiometeorol

Technische Universität München

Solution: Plant phenological metrics by PCA

• Summary– Re-interpreting existing data sets– Define a green-up index

• Based existing multi-species data sets• Statistical estimation for fill gaps• Integrated view of the phenology of a landscape

• Applications– > 8’000 sites in Cost725 European phenological data base– Comparisons with LSP and model: ground truth and verification– Climatic impacts on green-up indices– Gap-free data set for e.g. extreme climatic event studies

Technische Universität München

Comparison to modelled ground phenology

20-4040-6060-7070-8080-9090-100100-110110-120120-130130-140140-150150-160>160

Figure 3.3. Comparison of the SOS the ‘green wave’ (a) and simulation of leaf unfolding of Betula pendula (b) over 1982-1994: average date in DOY (a-b).

a b

POSITIVE

Technische Universität MünchenCalibration of ground measures to which SOS estimate ?

White et al. 2009

Technische Universität München

Good correspondance to GPPWHEAT DK

-5,0

-2,5

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

15,0

Jan 99

GP

P [

gC /

m2

d ]

0

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0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

ND

VI

GPP GPP-mean(7) NDVI DLR NDVI 5x5 MVC NDVI 5x5

POSITIVE

Technische Universität München

“The story remains difficult … ”Summary

• Current phenological data are not online available (+1.5 years)• Europe is most variable concerning networks, species, spatial

coverage and density, availability despite COST 725 and PEP 725 efforts

• Many phenological observations to interpret satellite measures are lacking, e.g. second cropping in autumn, unusual management (irrigation, ..)

• Phenological data requires quality control and spatial interpolation

• Similarly, SOS, EOS, LOS measures out of satellite products most variable