In the last 200 years the population of our planet has grown
exponentially, at a rate of 1.9% per year. If it continued at this
rate, with the population doubling every 40 years, by 2600 we would
all be standing literally shoulder to shoulder. -- Professor
Stephen Hawking Population
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Population Geography Distribution of World Population
Population Statistics Population Pyramids Demographic Transition
Theory Population Control Overpopulation (Malthus and
Neo-Malthusians)
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Population Density Arithmetic Density Total population/Total
Land area U.S. = 76/mi 2 ; NYC=1,000,000/mi 2 ; Australia = 7/mi 2
Physiological Density Total population/ Total Farmable land 95% of
Egyptians live near the Nile river Agricultural Density Total
farmers/Total farmable land High-most people are farmers Low-not
many farmers needed CountryArithmeticPhysiologica l Agricultural%
of farmers% of Arable land Canada365120.5 US32175221.7 The
Netherlands 40017482330.01 Egypt802296251310.03
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World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure:
3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 7 billion on
planet as of Oct. 31, 2011
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ Five most populous
regions and countries REGIONPOPULATIONCOUNTRYPOPULATION East
Asia1.5 billionChina1.387 billion South Asia 1.2 billionIndia1.254
billion Europe750 millionU.S. 320 million SE Asia500
millionIndonesia250 million East N. Am.120 millionBrazil200
million
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Population Statistics Crude Birth Rate CBR Total number of live
births per year per 1,000 of the population Crude Death Rate CDR
Total number of deaths per year per 1,000 of the population Natural
Increase Rate NIR The percentage in which a population grows or
shrinks per year Total fertility Rate TFR Total number of children
a woman will have during her lifetime Infant Mortality Rate IMR The
number of infant deaths (under 1 year old) per 1,000 live births
per year
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CBR CDR=NIR Example: 20 (CBR)-5 (CDR)=15 per 1,000 or 1.5%
ALWAYS EXPRESSED AS A PERCENT!!! NIR Formula
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Rates of Natural Increase
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Palestinian Territories Fertility Rate 1975-19807.39
1980-19857.00 1985-19906.43 1990-19956.46 1995-20005.99
2000-20055.57 U.K. Total fertility rate 1975-19801.72 1980-19851.80
1985-19901.81 1990-19951.78 1995-20001.70 2000-20051.66 2.1 is
generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a
population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In
less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for
so many children not reaching childbearing age. AfricaFertility
Rate 1975-19806.60 1980-19856.45 1985-19906.11 1990-19955.67
1995-20005.26 2000-20054.97 Total Fertility Rate TFR - the average
number of children a women will have in her childbearing years.
This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7
(Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
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Infant Mortality Rate IMR the number of deaths of children
under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from
as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone,
Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality
tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek
insurance for the loss of children.
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Family Planning Programs One family/one child policies
Sterilization Increased taxes Loss of social status Termination
healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy and
education to stop unwanted births
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Demographic Transition Model Developed in 1929 by American
demographer Warren Thompson Using demography statistics, level of
industrialism and economic wealth, each country is placed into
stages Most countries are currently in Stage 3 or higher The
exception would be Sub Saharan, parts of the Middle East and Asia
The model is growing outdated as countries reach the end of stage
4
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Demographic Transition Model
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DTM Stages Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural) Crude
birth/death rate high Several spikes and drops in CBR/CDR Stage two
(improved agriculture and medicine) Lower death rates Infant
mortality rate falls Natural increase very high Stage three (Social
change) Indicative of richer developed countries Higher standards
of living/education Crude birth rate finally falls Stage four Crude
birth/death rates low Population stable Populations aging
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DTM Possible Stage 5 Most of the highly developed countries are
exhausting the 4 th stage Demographers are now starting to theorize
a 5 th and possible 6 th stage of Thompsons model Very low CBR, CDR
and a total population decline in a country Replacement rate is not
being met and the country is declining in population (does not
account for migration) These countries are highly industrialized,
high levels of education and equality Any population increase would
be due to immigration and not citizens having kids
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3 reasons for stage changes Agricultural Revolution Industrial
Revolution Medical Revolution Occurred around 8000 B.C. Humans
began to farm and establish ecumene Famine, droughts and wars kept
CBR and CDR unstable Occurred in 1750 Improvement in industrial
technology Increased wealth, sanitary conditions, agricultural
production Led to higher CBR and lower CDR Western Europe Late 20
th century Helped LDCs enter stage 2 (Like South America) Increased
CBR and decreased CDR Improved life expectancy Immunizations,
antibiotics
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Why a country changes from stage 2 to stage 3
TechnologyEconomicSocial Medical technology allows for CBR and CDR
to decrease Access to medicine Access to sex education Access to
birth control Infant mortality rate declines More doctors People
live in urban areas with less room for large houses People work in
offices or factories where kids are not allowed Kids are not
economics assets to their parents (they cost more money) No child
labor in urban cities Women enter labor force therefore less time
for kids Access to birth control methods to stop unwanted kids
Increased wealth and leisure time (no time for kids) No need or
pressure to reproduce It is acceptable not to have kids
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Cape VerdeChileDenmark Stage 2 in 1950 Remained in stage 2
currently due to famine and fluctuation between CBR/CDR As with
other African and Latin America countriesonly entered stage 2
because of the medical revolution Entered stage 2 because of
medical revolution o Moved to stage 3 because of government family
planning policies in 1966. Reduced incomes and high employment
postponed marriage and childbearing Will not move into stage 4
because Chile has reversed policy and most Chileans are Roman
Catholic who do not believe in artificial birth control methods
Entered stage 4 because CBR is approaching ZPG and social
revolution Population is in decline CBR is declining while CDR is
rising CDR will continue to rise unless a new medical revolution
takes place CBR will only increase through immigration
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Weakness of the DTM It is only a model Becoming increasingly
outdated as countries reach stage 4 New geographical studies
suggest that fertility decline doesnt have to be connected to
increased wealth As well as an increase in fertility in highly
wealthy countries The model does not account for immigration in
each country Immigrants tend to have higher TFR than citizens
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Population Pyramids Bar graph that displays demography data
Pyramids show Age -Young vs Old Gender- Male vs Female Dependency
Ratio- Number of population under 15 and over 65 Stage 2 countries
have a dependency ratio of 1:1 10:1 for younger dependants Stage 4
countries have a dependency ratio of 2:1 Elderly and young are
roughly equal. More than government expenditures are on the elderly
in stage 3 and 4 countries Women outnumber men in most MDCs
Countries with high immigration have more males Retirement
communities have more women than men Population Pyramids are
effected by ethnic compositions
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1 2 3 4 5
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Analysis of Italys Population Pyramid 1. Decline in Birth Rate
2. Baby Boom 3. Fewer men due to World War I and II 4. More women
due to: a. longer life expectancy and b. World Wars (I and II) 5.
More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future worker shortage and
an overall declining population.
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Thomas Malthus on Population Malthus predicted population would
outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows
arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable. An Essay on
the Principle of Population, 1798
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Neo Malthusians People who support Malthus original hypothesis
but tweaked the theory Malthus failed to include LDCs in his theory
LDCs entered stage 2 not because of wealth but because of medical
revolution Overpopulation affects not just food production but also
other resources Population will continue to rise in LDCs therefore
people will be fighting over resources not just food
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Critics of Malthus Possibilism allows for humans to change
environment Larger population stimulates economic growth and ideas
Marxists believe poverty and hunger are a result of unjust social
institutions Higher population for national defense (armies)
Capitalism creates unequal access to resources
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Epidemiological Transition Created by Abdel Omran in 1971
Follows the DTM but looks at the health threats of each stage
Explains the CDR of each stage Later the model was modified for
stage 4 by Olshansky and Ault The modification was to take into
account the impact of medical advances that keep people alive
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Epidemiological Transition Stage 1 Pestilence and famine High
CDR Black Plaque Stage 2 Pandemics Rapidly declining CDR Cholera
Controlled with improved sanitation Stage 3 degenerative diseases
Moderately declining CDR Cardiovascular disease, heart attacks
Stage 4 (delayed stage 3) Low but increasing CDR Life expectancy
was longer due to medical advances Possible stage 5 reemergence of
stage 1 (infectious and parasitic diseases) Mutation of diseases
poverty decreases sanitation increased travel to spread new
contagions like Malaria, TB and SARS
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Population Futures Two ways to lower CBR Increased economic
development provides better education and health care Improve a
countrys economy Increase countrys literacy rate Increase girls
access to education and jobs Increased health care to lower IMR
Distribution of contraceptives and education about family planning
Sexual education Access to birth control (contraceptives)
Bangladesh, Colombia, Morocco and Thailand have low literacy rates
but access to birth control 25% of women in sub Saharan Africa use
contraceptives
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Summary Overpopulation is a relationship between the size of
the population and a regions level of resources CBR must be reduced
in order to curb global population growth Countries experience
different population and epidemiological transitions Malthus was
only partly correct LDCs increasing populations make up for MDCs
declining populations
