Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 1

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management

Strategies

17 November 2009

James Butler

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 2

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Outline

• Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Today• An Emerging Need – Emission Reduction• Verifying the Outcome of Greenhouse Gas

Management Strategies• Observing and Modeling Challenges

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 3

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Structure

• Tools we have WMO GAW framework SAG, GAWSIS, GAWTEC Experts’ Meetings WDC, CCL, WCC for GHGs 152 sites report GHG data to WDC

• Products supported WDC products & national network products (e.g.,

NOAA, CSIRO, EU) WMO reports and pubs GHG bulletin CarbonTracker, CarbonTracker- Asia,

CarbonTracker-EU, Other reanalyses• Customers

Scientistso IPCCo National Assessments

Educators General public (e.g., NGOs, press, etc.)

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 4

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Globalview,(annual)

Data sets &Visual displays

(variable)

IADV(daily)

NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Ra

dia

tive

Fo

rcin

g (

W m

-2)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0CO2

CH4

N2O

CFC12CFC1110 Minor

An

nu

al

Gre

en

ho

us

e G

as

In

de

x (

AG

GI)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

AGGI(annual)

CarbonTracker(annual)

Global trends (monthly)

StewardshipDATA Products

ServicesCreativity, Analysis

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 5

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

An Emerging Global Challenge

• Society is advancing efforts to manage and reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases

• Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach

• Large-scale emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) require independent, scientific verification of the outcome of policies implemented Stratospheric Ozone Acid Rain Air Quality

• The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, the number and types of players, and the number of GHGs make this a significant challenge for GHG emission reduction

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CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

100

50

20

Develop System

Establish Baselines

Critical Verif ication Period

Fine Grid, Robust Verification

Enhance System Maintain System

Perc

ent

of

201

0

Em

issi

on

s

Time

How will Society Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emmissions??We don’t know . . . but . .

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CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Verification: Providing Objective, Science-based Information to Support Policy & Implementation

• International Agreements Reliable, trusted information will help guide policy decisions at the highest levels Will inform decisions regarding needs for adjustments or amendments to existing

agreements Will provide the information necessary to ensure a globally successful effort

• National Laws National policies to balance GHG emission reduction efforts or offsets will require periodic

verification of their outcome GHG information specific to regions and economic sectors can ensure continuance or

expansion of strategies that are working and aid in adjusting those that are not

• Inventory Validation Reliable GHG information will help inform inventory reporting and measurements Can help improve national inventories Can help inform the design and evaluation of mitigation strategies

• GHG trading markets With or without trading, carbon and other GHGs will acquire considerable value Independent outcome verification would help investors be secure in their investments Would ensure that the goal of GHG trading would stay on target

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 8

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Carbon Crucible – The Future Demands New and Expanded

Approaches

• Increased Observations• Improved Transport Models• Enhanced Reanalysis

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 9

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange

Oceanic Measurements

Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes

Emission Inventories

Deep Ocean

Surface

Satellite

Aircraft

Satellite Mapping

Integration and Product Development (Reanalysis)

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 10

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Surface-based & In-situ Networks

CarboEurope

WMO Global Atmospheric Watch

FluxNet

TCCON

NOAA

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 11

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Sampling, Analysis,

Calibration

Tall Towers

Light Aircraft

Portable flask packages

Automated flask analysis

Cooperative sampling

World calibration scale

In situ sampling

SatellitesFTIR

Q-C Lasers

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 12

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Learning from Long Term Records

• A call for sustained, continuous measurements of greenhouse gases

• A warning of the importance of maintaining an on-going war on measurement bias

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 13

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty . . .

• More Observations (x 10?)AtmosphereOceanTerrestrialSatellites Improved Instrumentation

• Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller FootprintsTransport (÷ 10?)Boundary Layer UnderstandingAssimilation, Inversion, DiagnosisPrediction

• Enhanced Computing Capacity

QA/QC, Data Management

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 14

CAS XV TECOJH Butler – GHG Observing Systems

Questions?

14

“Carbon Weather”

January(net CO2emission)

July(net CO2 uptake)

Long-termObservations

CarbonTrackerTM