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Increase Yields and Reduce Costs with Variable Rate Planting

Precision Ag Insight WebinarJuly 8, 2015

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Webcast Format

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Minimized Controls

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Speakers• Chad Godsey, PhD

Owner, Godsey Precision Ag

• Dave Scheiderer President, Integrated Ag

• Dale Cowan Senior Agronomist, AGRIS and Wanstead Coops

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Speakers

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Registration QuestionHow many of your growers are currently utilizing variable seeding technology?

• Very few, 0-25%• Some, 26-50%• Most, 51-75% • Almost all, 76-100%

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Results

Very few, 0-25%62%

Some, 26-50%32%

Most, 51-75%3%

Almost all, 76-100%3%

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Basics of Variable Rate Planting

• Local agronomy trumps everything most of what we will discuss this morning

• Types of data required to create quality seeding zones vary from region to region

• Seek professional support from someone who understands your local agronomy and has experience using GIS tools

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Basics of Variable Rate Planting

• Develop clear cut goals for what you want to accomplish• Save on seed costs?• Increase yield?

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End of Year Analysis - Whole Field

Table 1. Input cost and realized savings for 2010-2014

Input Minimum Rate Maximum Rate Average RateSavings over uniform rate

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - per acre - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Seed 27,000 34,000 31,299 $1.75†

Nitrogen (lb/N) 30 100 67 $11.07‡

Total Input Savings $12.82

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End of Year Analysis – Whole Field

Table 2. Whole field analysis and increase in revenue from variable rate management

Long-term Average Prior to Mgt†

Difference in Year of Treatment minus Long-term Average

Seed Savings for Field

Nitrogen Savings for Field

Increase Revenue for Field from Yield Increase

201 bu/ac 17.1 $229† $1450‡ $8960¶

†Savings based on a uniform seeding rate of 32,000 seeds per acre and $80 per acre seeding cost.‡Savings based on a uniform rate of 85 lb N/ac and $0.60/lb N, applied as UAN.¶ Revenue increased on $4.00/bu selling price.

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Considerations

• Work with seed companies on hybrid population dynamics

• Cover the basics before moving on to VRS

• Set reasonable expectations from VR seeding and do it early• Economics• Chances of achieving goals in year one

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Understanding Sources of Variability

• There are 3 main types of field variability: 1. Natural - field landscape2. Man made – field activities3. Random – weather

• All 3 interact individually and together to determine crop outcome

• The fourth source of variability is plant to plant

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Cobs collected from 1/1000 of an acre

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 320

50

100

150

200

250

Range in Corn Yield 1/1000 of an Acre

Ear Location

Yiel

d bu

s/ a

cre

125.6 bushel range in estimated yieldOverall average yield 175 bus/ acre , potential yield with plant uniformity 217 bushels per acre a 42 bushel increase

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Management Zones

• First, understand the scope of the variability and opportunities; then create management zones

• Consistent size and shape• Consistent year over year in terms of yield performance • Attributes that can be measured and managed • Sources are - multiple years of yield maps, topography, soil data,

drone imagery, farmer input , others – all layers should support a consistent development of management zones

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Management Zones • Most GIS software packages contain tools for multiyear yield

analysis (MYYA), yield normalization or merging of layers.• Simple is the best place to start• Identify above average, average and below average yield areas;

sometimes you will find areas that are variable each year • Decide how you will position population rates in zones or

management blocks within zones• What are the specific hybrid dynamics? • Work with seed companies

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Registration QuestionWhat is your biggest challenge in achieving your objectives for variable seeding?

• Collecting the data • Establishing management zones• Getting the recommendation implemented correctly • Evaluating effectiveness of the recommendation at the

end of the season

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ResultsCollecting the

data17%

Establishing management

zones19%

Evaluating effectiveness of the recommendation at the end of the season

36%

Getting the recommenda-

tion imple-mented cor-

rectly28%

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Hybrid Performance Data

• 3 yield potentials per maturity zones:

< 80 RM 80 - 90 RM > 90 RMLow <120 bu/ac <140 bu/ac <160 bu/acMid 120-150 bu/ac 140-180 bu/ac 160-210 bu/acHigh >150 bu/ac >180 bu/ac >210 bu/ac

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DKC49-82RIB Optimums

Yield Optimum Economical Optimum

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Yield (Bu/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

High 40.2 239.2 811.33 36.1 818.76

Mid 34.4 194.8 654.63 30.3 662.05

Low N/A  N/A   N/A N/A   N/A

Seeds Price = $275/80 000 kernels bag95% GerminationCorn Price = 4 $/Bu

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DKC57-75RIB Optimums

Yield Optimum Economical Optimum

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Yield (Bu/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

High 43.2 242.1 812.02 36.9 823.35

Mid 46.8 190.1 591.13 33.3 615.51

Low N/A  N/A   N/A N/A   N/A

Seeds Price = $275/80 000 kernels bag95% GerminationCorn Price = 4 $/Bu

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DKC61-89RIB Optimums

Yield Optimum Economical Optimum

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Yield (Bu/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

Pop (Pl/Ac)

Revenue ($/Ac)

High 36.4 242.1 836.50 33.9 841.04

Mid 37.0 191.3 631.25 33.1 638.23

Low N/A  N/A   N/A N/A   N/A

Seeds Price = $275/80 000 kernels bag95% GerminationCorn Price = 4 $/Bu

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Price/ unit of seed (80,000) = $275.00

Seed cost per 1000 seeds $3.44

If you increase population by 5K, seed cost increases by $17.22/ acre.

At $4.00 corn, you need 4.3 bushels per acre increase to break even.

If you decrease seed by 5K and save $17.22 an acre in seed costs, yields can drop the same for a break even; but ideally they must stay the same as normal rate to realize a true benefit.

Simple Seeding Economics

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MYYA 3 years of corn yield data- 3 years of corn in last 5 years

Most farmers alternate Corn, Soy, Wheat, so it takes 9 years to get 3 years of corn – we can normalize soy and corn together.

This map formed the base for creating management zones.

The Process

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VRS Target • MYYA

• Soil test data

• Hybrid performance data

• Monitor information 20/20

• Farmer input

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As planted map downloaded from Field View

Issues with internal polygons

As Planted

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All the data layers come in from 20/20 system

Downforce highlighted here

Analysis

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After all the effort and investment, take the time to scout and understand the issues with final plant populations.

Not being critical, just realistic

What you plan and plant with precision may not all show up

Other learning opportunities “emerge” that impact VRS outcomes

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Summary

• Having data (all relevant data ) organized in the GIS allows analysis tools to be used (e.g. XS Inc)

• Yield x population etc.• The only variable on this farm is the seeding rate • Small management blocks afford an opportunity to analyze

within the zone, without skewing the yield in larger areas • Verification of management zones and population rates

compared to normal farmer practices• Calculate the ROI

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Redefining Seeding Zones & Optimizing Rates

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Soil Sampling Density is Critical

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What is a Common Production Unit?Common Production Unit (CPU)• Classifies land units that possess similar

characteristics affecting crop development• Quantifies the temporal stability of the field from:

-Soil Organic Matter-Soil Texture (CEC)-Normalized Yield (+2 yrs.) -Slope (elevation) -Irrigation

How A CPU Is CreatedSoil Organic Matter

Soil CEC

Normalized Yield

Slope

CPUs - created from compiled data

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Soil Types as Management Zones Don’t Model Well

NDVI/Soil Type

CPU/Soil Type

Yield DataCPU using normalized yields, om, slope, CEC

Aerial Imagery

• Great diagnostic tool• Must have a good

understanding of the field to set up management zones

Thermal Imagery

Multi-Layer CPU

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Theoretical Yield Response to Population

Optimizing Seeding Rates for Corn Production (Crop Insights, Pioneer-DuPont)

By Steve Butzen, Agronomy Information Manager

Corn Yield Response Stress Vs. Good Growing Conditions

Updated Jan 2015URL: http://www.kingcorn.org/news/timeless/SeedingRateGuidelines.htmlYield Response to Plant Population for Corn in IndianaR.L. (Bob) Nielsen, Jason Lee, & Jim CamberatoAgronomy Dept., Purdue Univ.West Lafayette, IN 47907-2054

Good Conditions Optimum seeding rate: 34,000 plts./ac.

Poor growing conditions Optimum seeding rate: 24,100 plts./ac.

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CPU Zones to VR Seeding Prescription

CPU VR Seeding Prescription

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Data Analysis to Refine Populations and Hybrid Choice

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Thank You

Chad Godsey, PhDOwner, Godsey Precision AgPhone: 970-630-7732Email: chad.godsey@godseyag.comWeb: godseyag.comTwitter: @godseyag

Stick around for an AgVeritas demonstration.

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AgVeritas – Overview

• Web-based yield analysis tool• Uses spatial statistics to analyze yield• Analyzes all the factors that impact yield simultaneously

• Planting choice / rate• Treatment choice / rate• Nutrient levels, soil types, elevation• And many more

• Determines which factors impacted yield more and less• Calculates if and where a tested management practice is

profitable

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AgVeritas - Variable Rate Analysis Example

Seeding Rate ChecksManagement Zones

The Question: What is the optimal seeding rate in my management zones?

- 36k - 33K- 33K - 31K - 28K

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AgVeritas – Variable Rate Analysis Result

Optimal rates by zone• Above Average = 35k• Slightly Above Average = 32k• Average = 34k• Slightly Below Average = 32k• Below Average = 29K

Check – Originally Recommended Rates:

• Above Average = 36K• Slightly Above Average

= 33K• Average = 33k• Slightly Below Average

= 31K• Below Average = 28K

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Thank You

Chad Godsey, PhDOwner, Godsey Precision AgPhone: 970-630-7732Email: chad.godsey@godseyag.comWeb: godseyag.comTwitter: @godseyag