23
1
1
Increasing primary energy demand
Source: OECD, The Ocean Economy in 2030, December 2016.
Mto
e
World primary energy demand by fuel in the new policies scenario
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Oil
Coal
Natural gas
Bioenergy
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables
World total primary energy demand
Source: The International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook
2018.
Mto
e.
BP Energy oulook
. . . SDGs: 17 goals to transforms our world
Adopted by 193 nations in 2015 underthe auspices of the United Nation
Indonesia lags behind in achieving SDGS targets
Major challenges remain: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 15, 16, 17
Significant challenges remain: 1, 5, 7, 8, 11, 14
Challenges remain: 4, 12, 13
SDG achievement: -
Source: 2019 Sustainable Development Report.
World energy consumption, quadrillion Btu
Indonesia: primary energy consumption
7.213.7
34.9
75.2
123.4
165.7
185.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Million tonnes oil equivalent
Growth rate per annum:2007-2017: 2.8%2018: 4.9%
* Primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.
Primary energy consumption per capita*
59.1
88.6
96.9
29.1
129.7
18.5
80.5
37.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 G I G A J O U L E S P E R C A P I TA * *
Brazil South Africa China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
* Primary energy comprises commercially-traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.** The energy content of a 30 litre tank of gasoline is about one gigajoule.Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.
Economic growth and population growth spurred primary energy growth
USACAN
FRA
DEU
GBR
JPN
BRA
RUS
IND
CHN
ZAF
IDNMYS
PHL
THA
VNM
WLD
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
GD
P g
row
th +
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
Primary energy consumption growth
Average annual growth 2007-2017
Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy; and World Bank, World Development Indicators database.
Indonesia: share of total final consumption of energy by sector
Other, 45.3%
Industry, 24.7%
Transport,30.0%
Source: The International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook
2018.
Indonesia: Share of oil products final consumption by sector, 2016
Source: The International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook
2018.
68.7
%
Primary energy—consumption by fuel*
45.0
18.1
33.2
2.0 1.8
Indonesia, 2018
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro electric
Renewables
* Primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity.Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.
38.9
17.2
34.5
2.24.3 3.0
Asia Pacific, excl. China, 2018
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear energy
Hydro electric
Renewables
Indonesia: oil proved reserves
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
11
.6
11
.0
10
.5
10
.1
9.6
9.2
9.0
9.0
9.0
5.1 5
.4
5.9
5.6
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.7 4.9 5
.1 5.2
5.1
5.1
4.7 4.7
4.3
4.2 4
.4
4.0
3.7
4.3
4.2
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.2
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Billion barrels
Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
Oil proved reserves in selected Asia Pacific countries
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
China India Vietnam Australia Malaysia Indonesia
Billion barrels
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
1,685
808
281
1,785
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
19
651
966
19
671
968
19
691
970
19
711
972
19
731
974
19
751
976
19
771
978
19
791
980
19
811
982
19
831
984
19
851
986
19
871
988
19
891
990
19
911
992
19
931
994
19
951
996
19
971
998
19
992
000
20
012
002
20
032
004
20
052
006
20
072
008
20
092
010
20
112
012
20
132
014
20
152
016
20
172
018
Thousand barrels daily
Production Consumption
Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy
-977(Importa-
ble)
Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing through surface separating facilities.
Oil consumption: Inland demand plus international aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives of coal and natural gas are also included.
1,404(Exporta-
ble)
Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019.
Indonesia: energy comsumption by fuel, 2017
1,4
15
1,3
41
1,2
52
1,1
47
1,0
96
1,0
62
1,0
06
954
977
949
945
902
860
82
4
78
9
78
6 820
815
680
610
55
0
51
7
48
6
457
42
9
40
4
379
357
335
31
5
296
278
262
246
231
217
204
192
181
170
160
150
141
133
125
117
110
103
97
91
86
10
77
992
11
20
12
86
12
79
12
50
12
31
11
85
12
08 12
50
13
91
1,3
18
1,2
40
1,2
32
1,2
02
1,1
69
1,1
50
1,1
50
1,2
00
1,2
00
1,2
00
1,1
28
1,1
24
1,0
56
993
933
877
825
775
729
685
644
605
569
53
5
50
3
473
444
41
8
392
369
347
326
306
28
8
271
25
5
239
225
211
199
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
00
0 B
OEP
D
Oil Gas
Notes:Decline of Oil & Gas Production: 6% p.a
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OIL (MBOPD) 945 902 860 824 789 786 820 815 680 610 550
GAS (MMSCFD) 6989 6989 6944 6900 6731 6546 6440 6440 6720 6720 6720
GAS (MBOEPD) 1391 1318 1240 1232 1202 1169 1150 1150 1200 1200 1200
OIL & GAS (MBOEPD) 2336 2220 2100 2056 1991 1955 1970 1965 1880 1810 1750
New reserves through massive exploration and continuous Investment are required to increase or maintain long term production profile
Source: SKK Migas, October 2016.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Oil trade deficit increased sharply in 2017-18
-27.6
-11.0
-14.6
-20.0
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
201
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Oil trade account, USD billions
Crude oil Oil products Total Oil
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Oil and gas trade deficit increased sharply in 2017-18
-13.4
-5.6
-8.6
-12.4
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USD
billions
Trade balance: oil & gas
Total Oil Gas (X-M) Total oil+gas
Indonesia: export of coal (HS code: 2701)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Milion tonnes oil equivalent Million tonnes USD billions-RHS
Source:. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 68th edition, 2019 for volume (million tonnes oil equivalent); and International Trade Center, International Trade Statistics for Volume (million tonnes) and value (USD billions).
Energy trade
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Energy trade
Oil Gas Coal Total Energy
Structure of current account, 2018 (US$ billions)
Current Account
-31.0 (3% GDP)
Merchandise
-0.4 (-1.3%)
Non-oil & gas
+11.2 (36.1%)
Coal
Palm oil
Textile & textile products
Oil & gas
-11.6 (-37.4%)
Oil
-18.4 (-59%)
Gas
+6.8 (+21.9%)
Services
-7.1 (-22.9%)
Transport
-8.8 (-28.4%)
Travel
+5.3 (+17.1%)
Others
-3.6 (-11.6%)
Primary income
-30.4 (98.0%)
Compensation of employees
-1.5 (-4.8%)
Direct investment income
-17.1 (-55.2%)
Portfolio investment income
-9.6 (-31.0%)
Others
-2.2 (-7.1%)
Secondary income
+6.9 (+22.3%)
Personal transfers
+7.6 (+24.5%)
Others
-0.7 (-2.3%)
Source: Bank Indonesia.
Terima Kasih
Email: [email protected]: @faisalbasriBlog: faisalbasri.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri
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