Increasing resilience through co-creation in a coastal urban region: dealing with climate change impacts and land-use development in a scenario process
Sonja Deppisch
HafenCity University HamburgResearch Group Global Change & Land-Use Strategies
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Coastal Cities Network Symposium, 11th April 2016, Portsmouth, UK
1. Intro: Research Setting
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Disciplinary topics – 7 single-disciplinary
driven research topics, variety of methods
Strong interdisciplinary research –
common research questions, boundary
object , conceptual bridge of social-
ecological resilience thinking & case
studies
Transdisciplinary
collaboration (Van de
Ven & Johnson 2006) with
urban region of Rostock
(Germany) – prospective
scenario planning process
1. Intro: Research Setting
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Rostock region: Coastal urban region (Baltic Sea) – deal with climate
change impacts and other drivers – future land-use development
Climate change impacts to expect:• Floods, storm surges
• sea-level rise
droughts & sand storms
• drinking water problem
2. Conceptual bridge: resilience
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Based on Social-ecological resilience notion1 & land-use planning as deliberative act =>
capacity of an urban region to absorb internal and external stimuli and their complex effects and to reorganise itself in order to maintain, manage and deliberately advance or even transform essential social and ecological functional and structural properties while undergoing change
Emphasis on social-ecological interdependencies, non-linearity, complexity & uncertainty, surprising events
learn to live with change
adopt a corresponding perspective in everyday administrative and planning practices
question paths taken & taking into account potential transformations (Albrechts2010)
----1) Berkes et al., 2003; Carpenter et al., 20052) Davoudi 2012
3. Co-creation – scenario planning process
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I Definition of the
subject
II Identification of
key factors
III Analysis of key
factors
IV Development of
scenarios
V Transfer of
scenarios
Spatial development 2050Decision-making within the transdisciplinary process
Key factors of spatial development
Identifying key factors within the transdisciplinary process
Workshop 1
„Key factors for the future“
Discussion of alternative future developments
Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic
· Evaluation of results of the first workshop
· Relevance and interactions between key factors
· Interactions between key factors and climate change
· Translation into scenarios (computer-based)
· Result: Four consistent scenarios
Transdisciplinary process
· Discussion of scenarios
· Revision of scenarios
· Selection of scenarios for the second workshop
Workshop 2
„Scenarios as images of the future“
Discussion of scenarios
Interdisciplinary process within plan B:altic
· Evaluation of results of the second workshop
· Revision of scenarios
Transdisciplinary process
· Decisions concerning the third workshop
Workshop 3
„Climate change adaptation strategies“
Development of measures and strategies
2010: Kick–off Workshop =>
mixed practitioners-
scientists working group
established
2011–2012: 3 main
Workshops with broader
participation
Joint analysis of situation,
key drivers of land-use
development
Discussion of variety of
potential alternative future
developments
Development of strategies
and measures resilient to
different future scenarios
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Sea level rise
Extreme weather
events
Changes in
precipitation
Water
Increase in
temperature
Development and
quality of free
areas
Agriculture and
forestry
Harbor and
maritime
economy
Tourism
Demographic
structure
Housing
Retail and
industry
Transport
infrastructure
Relationship
urban-rural
Energy policy
Financial situationPolicy priorities
European
Union Legal
instruments
Weak
Medium
Strong
Relevance for spatial
development
3. Scenario process: Drivers and interdependencies
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3. Scenarios: Drivers and their potential paths
3. Scenario process: generating scenarios
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Spatial development in the Rostock Region
Key factor A Key factor B Key factor C
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario ...
A.1 A.2 A.3 B.1 B.2 B.3 C.1 C.2 C.3
Key factor ...
… ... ...
3. Scenario process: resilient development
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4. Results & Discussion
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What brought this resilience-based approach to planning practice at the urban
and regional scale?
Results & Discussion
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Which challenges brought this complexity- & resilience-based approach to the planningpractitioners?
A) „Living with uncertainty“ : transfer to daily practice?
Scenario process => Transfer => Daily working routines
Discussed many potential developmentpaths, interdependencies, dealt with manyalternative future land-use developments, uncertainty and surprising events
Need for more climate change data, moreanalyses, reference to existing practices and pastsolutions, tendency to deal only with the mostlikely scenario
Huge information load => Risk to overburden participants
Software tool and scenario generating process – black box
Additional financial / personal resources needed
B) Overburden practice / participants
C) Not designed as norm generating processrather as discourse among experts – too much expected ?
Results & Discussion
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What were crucial framework conditions which might have influenced the up-take ofresilience thinking?
• Backed by research funds: financial and personal resources
• Process out of daily routines
• Political backing of the process
• Disciplinary background of participants from practice + / - (easier to grasp for ecologists, lessfor coastal engineer?)
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Team :
Dr.-Ing. Sonja Deppisch, Landscape and Spatial
Planning
Peter Wibbeling, M.A. European Studies
Simone Beichler, MSc. Environmental Management
Bart Jan Davidse, MSc. Spatial Planning
Dr. Meike Othengrafen, Spatial Planning
Michael Richter, Geoecologist
Luise Schulz, M.A. Sociology
Until 9/2013:
Dr. M. Hagemeier-Klose, Geographer
Sanin Hasibovic, Communication Scientist
Photographs: plan B:altic: Pudimat, Wibbeling
Maps:plan B:altic (source: Regionaler
Planungsverband Mittleres
Mecklenburg / Vorpommern 2010; City
of Rostock)
Contact:[email protected]
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Rostock : ESS participatory mapping
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Szenarienerstellung: Faktorenbezüge
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Szenario: Einflussfaktoren und Entwicklungspfade