INDEKS KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN = Environmental Sustainability Index

INDEKS KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN

=Environmental

Sustainability Index

Diabstraksikan oleh: soemarno, psdl ppsub, desember 2012

Bahan Kajian pada MK. PSDAL

CEKAMAN LINGKUNGAN

ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS

Diunduh dari: http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html ……………… 29/11/2012

Environmental stress refers to physical, chemical, and biological constraints on the productivity of species and on

the development of ecosystems. When the exposure to environmental stressors increases or decreases in intensity,

ecological responses result.

Stressors can be natural environmental factors, or they may result from the activities of humans.

Some environmental stressors exert a relatively local influence, while others are regional or global in their scope.

Stressors are challenges to the integrity of ecosystems and to the quality of the environment.

Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank

Articles http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYxYzPz2

http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html






Species and ecosystems have some capacity to tolerate changes in the intensity of environmental

stressors.

This is known as resistance, but there are limits to this attribute, which represent thresholds of

tolerance.

When these thresholds are exceeded by further increases in the intensity of environmental stress,

substantial ecological changes are caused.

Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank

Articles http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYy0sH9z







Environmental stressors can be grouped into the following categories:

1. Physical stress refers to brief but intense exposures to kinetic energy. This is a type of ecological disturbance because of its acute, episodic nature. Examples include volcanic eruptions, windstorms, and explosions.

2. Wildfire is also a disturbance, during which much of the biomass of an ecosystem is combusted, and the dominant species may be killed.

3. Pollution occurs when chemicals are present in concentrations large enough to affect organisms and thereby cause ecological changes. Toxic pollution can be caused by gases such as sulfur dioxide and ozone, by elements such as arsenic, lead, and mercury, and by pesticides such as DDT. Inputs of nutrients such as phosphate and nitrate can influence productivity and other ecological processes, causing a type of pollution known as eutrophication.

Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYyQRAAB






Environmental stressors can be grouped into the following categories:

1. Thermal stress occurs when releases of heat influence ecosystems, as happens in the vicinity of natural hot-water vents on the ocean floor, and near industrial discharges of heated water.

2. Radiation stress is associated with excessive loads of ionizing energy. This can occur on mountain tops where there are intense exposures to ultraviolet radiation, and in places where there are exposures to radioactive materials.

3. Climatic stress is associated with excessive or insufficient regimes of temperature, moisture, solar radiation, and combinations of these. Tundra and deserts are examples of climatically stressed ecosystems, while tropical rainforests occur under a relatively benign climatic regime.

4. Biological stresses are associated with the diverse interactions that occur among organisms of the same or different species. Biological stresses can result from competition, herbivory, predation, parasitism, and disease. The harvesting and management of species and ecosystems by humans is a type of biological stress. The introduction of invasive, non-native species may be regarded as a type of biological pollution.

Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles http://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYyQRAAB





Diunduh dari: www.crcnetbase.com/.../NOE1566706407.ch...….. 2/12/2012

HEAT STRESS

Heat Stress is a condition that arises from a variety of factors among the most important of which are:

1. the ambient temperature,2. the relative humidity,3. the level of effort required by the job, and4. the clothing being worn by an exposed individual.

An individual who is experiencing Heat Stress will tend to exhibit an array of measurable symptoms which can include some or all of the following:

1. an increased pulse rate,2. a greater rate of perspiration, and3. an increase in the individual’s body temperature


Diunduh dari: www.crcnetbase.com/.../NOE1566706407.ch...……………… 2/12/2012

Heat Stress DisordersThe five physical disorders that can arise from heat stress, listed in increasing order of se-verity, are as follows:

1. Heat Rash:A heat rash — also often referred to as “prickly heat” — tends to arise in an individual after a period of prolonged sweating. It is characterized by an itchy reddening of the skin and a sudden decrease in the rate of perspiration.

2. Cramps:Heat cramps arise as a result of prolonged periods of a combination of sweating and a lack of fluid and salt intake. Such a situation causes an overall body electrolyte imbalance, and the primary symptomatic manifestation is severe muscle cramps, most frequently in the abdomen.

3. Dehydration:Dehydration is the result of excessive fluid loss. Among its most common causes are: excessive sweating, vomiting, diarrhea, and/or alcohol consumption. Symptoms of dehydration are often subtle but include exhaustion, overall weakness, dry mouth, decreased work output, etc.

HEAT STRESS DISORDERS

Diunduh dari: www.crcnetbase.com/.../NOE1566706407.ch...… 2/12/2012

4. Heat Exhaustion: Heat exhaustion arises from extreme cases of dehydration. It is characterized by some or all of the following conditions or symptoms: increasing pulse rate, decreasing blood pressure, slight to moderate increases in body temperature, fatigue, increasing levels of sweating, lack of skin color, dizziness, blurred vision, head-ache, decreased work output, and collapse.

5. Heat Stroke:Heat stroke is usually the result of very significant overexposure to the factors of heat stress. It can also arise from drug or alcohol abuse and on occasion from genetic factors. Heat stroke is almost always accompanied by an increase in body temperature to levels greater than 104°F (40°C). Symptomatic indications include: chills, irritability, hot & dry skin, convulsions, and unconsciousness.

COLD STRESS


Cold Stress differs dramatically from Heat Stress. Typically a body will adapt to conditions of Heat Stress by increasing

its level of perspiration in an effort to provide increased cooling.

Cold Stress adaptations usually involve a decrease in the blood flow to the skin and the extremities.

The principal causes of Cold Stress are exposure to cold temperatures and vibrations, either singly or in combination.

COLD STRESS DISORDERS


The four physical disorders that can arise from cold stress, listed in increasing order of se-verity, are as follows:1. Chilblains:

Chilblains usually arise as a result of inadequate clothing during periods of exposure to cold temperatures and high relative humidities. Reddening of the skin accompanied by localized itching and swelling are the principal indications of chilblains.

2. Frostnip:Frostnip, which is similar to frostbite, results from prolonged, unprotected exposures to cold temperatures above 32°F (0°C). Symptoms of frostnip are areas of pain and/or itching, and a distinct whitening of the skin.

3. Frostbite:Frostbite is produced from unprotected exposures to cold temperatures at or below freezing — i.e., ≤ 32°F or 0°C. Frostbite is characterized by the sequential change in skin color from white to gray to black [depending upon the temperature and the length of exposure], a reduction in the sensations of touch ranging from slight to total [again depending upon the temperature and the length of exposure], and numbness.

4. Hypothermia:Hypothermia results from extreme exposures to the factors of cold stress, coupled possibly with dehydration and/or exhaustion. Alcohol and/or drug abuse can also contribute to hypothermia. A person who is experiencing hypothermia will usually show some or all of the following symptoms: chills, euphoria, pain in the extremities, slow and weak pulse, body temperature of less than 95°F (35°C), fatigue, drowsiness, and unconsciousness

AMBIENT CONDITIONS RELATED TO THERMAL STRESS


1. Dry Bulb TemperatureThe Dry Bulb Temperature is the most direct measurement of air temperature. By definition, it is to be accomplished by the use of a capillary thermometer that is completely exposed to and/or immersed in the air mass whose temperature is to be measured. This thermometer should be shielded from sources of radiant heat.

2. Air or Wind SpeedThe Air or Wind Speed is simply the rate at which a mass of air is passing an arbitrary stationary point. The direction of movement is not important since this measure is used principally in a determination of the convective heat transfer to and from the air. It is typically measured by an anemometer.

3. Globe TemperatureThe Globe Temperature of an air mass arises from the combination of heat input by radiation from the surroundings coupled with the simultaneous heat loss by the convective movement of air around the Globe Temperature measurement device, which is a 6-inch diameter, thin-walled copper, spherical globe, painted matte black with an appropriate temperature sensor at its center

AMBIENT CONDITIONS RELATED TO THERMAL STRESS

Diunduh dari: ……………… 2/12/2012

Wet Bulb Temperature

1. The Wet Bulb Temperature of an air mass differs from the Dry Bulb Temperature measurement by the fact that the fluid reservoir bulb of the capillary thermometer that is used to make this measurement is encased in a sheath of water moistened cloth. This wet sheath provides cooling to the thermometer bulb by the evaporation of water, in most cases causing the Wet Bulb Temperature to be less than its Dry Bulb Temperature counterpart — the obvious exception to this is the case where the ambient relative humidity is 100%, a condition wherein evaporation, and the resulting evaporative cooling, are effectively eliminated.

2. There are actually two categories of Wet Bulb Temperature. The first is the Natural Wet Bulb Temperature which is obtained simply by encasing a capillary thermometer bulb in a wet cloth and then using this combination to make an air temperature measurement. The other category is described as a Psychrometric Wet Bulb Temperature.

3. Psychrometric Wet Bulb Temperatures are obtained by the use of a sling psychrometer, a tool that is made up of a pair of identical capillary thermometers, one of which is bare while the other is sheathed in a wet cloth. To obtain a reading from a sling psychrometer, this mechanism is whirled through the air, a process that produces a maximized rate of evaporative cooling for the wet bulb. The difference in the temperatures indicated by the two thermometers of a sling psychrometer can then be used to determine the relative humidity of the air mass being measured.

EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURE


The Effective Temperature is an index that is used to relate the subjective effect that the thermal environment might be expected to have on the comfort of an individual who

is exposed to that environment. It is a combination of the Dry Bulb, the Wet Bulb, and the Globe Temperatures.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index

The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index [usually abbreviated, WBGT] is the most widely used algebraic approximation of an “Effective Temperature” currently in use today.

It is an Index that can be determined quickly, requiring a minimum of effort and operator skill. As an approximation to an “effective temperature,” the WBGT takes into account virtually all the commonly accepted mechanisms of heat transfer (i.e., radiant, evaporative, etc.). It does not

account for the cooling effect of wind speed. Because of its simplicity, WBGT has been adopted by the American Conference of Government Hygienists (ACGIH) as its principal index for use in

specifying a heat stress related Threshold Limit Value (TLV). For outdoor use (i.e., in sunshine), the WBGT is computed according to the following algebraic sum:

WBGT = 0.7 [NWB] + 0.2 [GT] + 0.1 [DB].

For indoor use, the WBGT is computed according to the following slightly modified alge braic sum:

WBGT = 0.7 [NWB] + 0.3 [GT].

where: [NWB] = Natural Wet Bulb Temperature; [GT] = Globe Temperature; [DB] = Dry Bulb Temperature.

CEKAMAN RADIASI

Diunduh dari: http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/about/what_is_ir/en/index.html ……………… 2/12/2012

Ionizing RadiationIonizing radiation is radiation with enough energy so that during an interaction with an atom, it can remove tightly

bound electrons from the orbit of an atom, causing the atom to become charged or ionized.

Forms of electromagnetic radiation. These differ only in frequency and wave length: Heat waves; Radiowaves;

Infrared light; Visible light; Ultraviolet light; X rays; Gamma rays.

Longer wave length, lower frequency waves (heat and radio) have less energy than shorter wave length, higher frequency

waves (X and gamma rays). Not all electromagnetic (EM) radiation is ionizing. Only the high frequency portion of the

electromagnetic spectrum which includes X rays and gamma rays is ionizing.

CEKAMAN RADIASI

Diunduh dari: http://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/about/what_is_ir/en/index.html ……………… 2/12/2012

Particulate

Specific forms of ionizing radiation: Particulate radiation, consisting of atomic or subatomic particles (electrons, protons, etc.) which carry energy in the form of kinetic energy or mass in motion.

1. Alpha particles and beta particles are considered directly ionizing because they carry a charge and can, therefore, interact directly with atomic electrons through coulombic forces (i.e. like charges repel each other; opposite charges attract each other).

2. The neutron is an indirectly ionizing particle. It is indirectly ionizing because it does not carry an electrical charge. Ionization is caused by charged particles, which are produced during collisions with atomic nuclei.

3. The gamma and X rays, which are electromagnetic, indirectly ionizing radiation. These are indirectly ionizing because they are electrically neutral (as are all electromagnetic radiations) and do not interact with atomic electrons through coulombic forces.

CEKAMAN RADIASI

Diunduh dari: http://www.drlwilson.com/Articles/ELECTROMAGNETEICS.htm ……………… 2/12/2012

CEKAMAN ELEKTROMAGNETIK

Electromagnetic stress is the subtle, or not so subtle, effects of stray or chaotic Electrical and magnetic fields

on the human body. It is an important cause of stress today for almost everyone. It is particularly bad for people in certain occupations such as airline personnel and those that work with computers,

television sets, for example. Avoiding electromagnetic stress is becoming more and more

difficult today. It is especially challenging in cities, where cell phone towers, automobiles, and cell and portable phones

are used extensively.

Red infrared heat lamps. If possible, have some reddish infrared heat lamps positioned around your home. They will

purify certain frequencies of energy in the home.

OVERVIEW OF THE POTENTIAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

1A.17Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx

Perubahan Iklim & Kesehatan

• There is consideration worldwide on the potential health impacts from global climate change.

• Ada tiga macam dampak kesehatan : – Relatively direct impacts, usually caused by weather extremes– Consequences of environmental change and ecological disruption in

response to climatic change – Consequences that occur when populations are demoralised and

displaced by the following climate change induced factors: • economic dislocation, • environmental decline and conflict situations including traumatic,

infectious, nutritional, psychological and other health consequences.

[1] World Health Organisation (WHO). 2003. Climate change and human health: risks and responses.

Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx

Environmental Conditions

Social Conditions (upstream determinants of health

Health System Conditions

Climate Change

Direct Exposures

Indirect Exposures(Changes in food quality, disease vectors, ecosystem changes)Changes in Social Disruption

Health Impacts

Modifying Influence

Jalur-jalur Cuaca mempengaruhi Kesehatan


Efek Kesehatan1. Temperature-related

illness and death2. Extreme weather-

related health effects3. Air pollution-related

health effects4. Water and food-borne

diseases5. Vector-borne and

rodent- borne diseases6. Effects of food and

water shortages7. Effects of population

displacement

CLIMATECHANGE

Human exposures

Regional weather changesHeat wavesExtreme weatherTemperaturePrecipitation

Source: based on Patz, et al., 2000

Modulating

influences

Hubungan antara Perubahan Iklim dan Kesehatan

• Most expected impacts will be adverse but some will be beneficial.• Expectations are not for new health risks, but rather changes in frequency or

severity of familiar health risks

Contaminationpathways

Transmissiondynamics

Agro-ecosystems,hydrology

Socioeconomics,demographics


Dampak langsung PANAS terhadap Kesehatan

• The human body maintains body temperature in ambient temperatures not exceeding 32 degrees C

• Above this temperature, heat lost through the skin and sweating

• Heat-related illness occurs when the body unable to adequately cool

• Minimum ambient temperatures are also important:

a) Difficulties cooling when minimum temperature is greater than 22 degrees C

• High humidity reduces effectiveness of sweating and increases the risk of heat-related illness at any given temperature.


Relative Atmospheric Temperature (°C)Humidity(%) and Temperature 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

0% 25 27 28 30 32 33 35 36 37 38

10% 25 27 28 30 32 33 35 37 39 41

20% 26 27 28 30 32 34 37 39 42 46

30% 26 27 29 31 33 36 39 43 47 52

40% 26 28 30 32 35 39 43 48 54 60

50% 27 28 31 34 38 43 49 55 62

60% 27 29 33 37 42 48 55 62

70% 27 31 35 40 47 54 63

80% 28 32 38 44 52 61

90% 28 34 41 49 58

100% 28 36 44 56

At an apparent temperature, (Ta) of:32–40°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion possible41–54°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion likely, heat stroke possible54°C< Heat stroke highly likelyExposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index value by up to 8oC


Dampak naiknya suhu udara terhadap kesehatan

Dampak langsung terhadap kesehatan:

a) Heat cramps – muscular pains and spasms

b) Heat exhaustion – body fluids are lost through heavy sweating

c) Heat stroke – is life threatening.

• Indirect impacts:

a) Range of areas that can potentially be affected with gradual and extreme temperature increases

b) Includes impacts on ecosystems, water, food, disease-carrying vectors, lifestyle, community resilience.


Dampak Banjir terhadap Kesehatan

1. Immediate deaths and injuries

2. Non-specific increases in mortality

3. Infectious diseases – leptospirosis, hepatitis, diarrhoeal, respiratory, and vector-borne diseases

4. Exposure to toxic substances

5. Mental health effects

6. Indirect effects

7. Increased demands on health systems.


Banjir : Efek langsung thd Kesehatan

Causes Health Implications

Stream flow velocity; topographic land features; absence of warning; rapid speed of flood onset; deep floodwaters; landslides; risk behaviour; fast flowing waters carrying boulders and fallen trees

Drowning Injuries

Contact with water Respiratory diseases; shock; hypothermia; cardiac arrest

Contact with polluted water Wound infections; dermatitis; conjunctivitis; gastrointestinal illness; ear, nose and throat infections; possible serious waterborne diseases

Increase of physical and emotional stress Increase of susceptibility to psychosocial disturbances and cardiovascular incidents


Causes Health Implications

Damage to water supply systems; sewage and sewage disposal damage; insufficient supply of drinking water; insufficient water supply for washing

Possible waterborne infections (enterogenic E.coli, shigella, hepatitis A, Leptospirosis, giardiasis, camplylobacter) dermatitis, and conjunctivitis

Disruption of transport systems Food shortage; disruption of emergency response

Underground pipe disruption; dislodgement of storage tanks; overflow of toxic waste sites; release of chemicals; rupture of gasoline storage tanks may lead to fires

Potential acute or chronic effects of chemical pollution

Standing waters; heavy rainfalls; expanded range of vector habitats

Vector-borne diseases

Rodent and other pest migration Possible diseases caused by rodents or other pests

Disruption of social networks; loss of property, jobs and family members and friends

Possible psychosocial disturbances

Clean-up activities following floods Electrocutions; injuries; lacerations; skin punctures

Destruction of primary food products Food shortage

Damage to health services; disruption of “normal” health service activities

Decrease of “normal” health care services, insufficient access to medical care


Banjir : Efek tidak-langsung thd Kesehatan

Climatic Change: Suplai air minum

Iklim lebih-kering menyebabkan: – Changes to land cover and run-off patterns

(erosion)– Increased bushfire risk– Increased sediment, nutrient and debris.

Banjir juga mempengaruhi suplai air bersih:– Coastal intrusion– Contamination.


1. Reduction in flows to dams and groundwater aquifers

2. Increased evaporation from surface water storages3. Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers4. Acidification of susceptible inland aquifers5. Meningkatnya risiko akibat:

a) Concentration of nutrient and chemical contaminants

b) Formation of toxic algal bloom


Climatic Change: Suplai air minum

Perubahan Iklim : Kualitas Udara

1. Weather has a major role in the development, transport, dispersion and deposition of air pollutants

2. Air pollution episodes are often associated with stationary or slowly moving air masses

3. Air pollutants and fine particulate matter may change in response to climate change.


1. Airflow on edges of a high-pressure system can transport ozone precursors. Ozone levels are increasing in many areas

2. An increase in fire events will mean increased toxic gases and particulates

3. Changes in wind pattern may increase long-range transport of air pollutants

4. Weather patterns can enhance urban “heat islands” which can lead to elevated pollution levels.


Perubahan Iklim : Kualitas Udara

Dampak Potensial thd Kesehatan

1. Ozone – pneumonia, COPD, asthma, allergic rhinitis and others – premature mortality

2. Particulate matter (PM) – known to affect morbidity and mortality

3. Toxic gases and PM from fires contribute to acute and chronic respiratory illness. Evidence from 1997 Indonesia fires – transboundary impacts

4. Wind blown dust (respirable particles, trace elements) from desert regions can affect populations in remote areas. Evidence that mortality is increased in the days after a dust storm.


Perubahan Iklim: Penyakit - vektornya Nyamuk

Distribusi vektor akan berubah akibat dari:

• Increasing temperature• Changing rainfall:

a) Increase or decrease

b) Seasonality

• Cyclones, flooding • Changes in animal host/reservoir

populations• Rising sea levels • Pasang-surut ekstrim• Hilangnya penyangga pantai.


Penyakit-bervektor-Nyamuk: Faktor Manusia

Location of population:– Geographic location– Proximity to water bodies

Urban environment:– Peri-domestic breeding

Mobility of population – Arrival of infected people

a) Internationalb) Interstatec) Intrastate

Living standards: – Insect screens, air conditioning– Social/political breakdown.


Produksi Pangan : LahanPertanian berbasis lahan:

Food production, loss of soil fertility, erosion and salinization:– Changes in crop yields and protein

levels (+/-)– Effects on feed intakes and animal

reproduction– Changes to pests, weeds and diseases– Changes to use of agrochemicals

Dietary and nutritional changes


Produksi Pangan: PerikananPerikanan pantai dan laut:

A change in coastal circulation patterns can affect:– Suplai hara– Lagoon flushing– Erosi pantai– Ocean acidity and coral bleaching– Penurunan produktivitas.


Keamanan Pangan• Food borne disease may cause

food poisoning: – May increase the proliferation of

bacterial pathogens including Salmonella, Campylobacter and Listeria spp.

– May increase mycotoxins and aflatoxins in seafood.


Dampak Sosial

Lifestyle and behaviour are likely to be affected in the following ways:• Increased temperatures:

– Increases in crime - particularly involving aggression – Accidents - workplace and traffic – Decline in physical health – Hot nights may cause sleep deprivation– Recreational opportunities - changes to exercise patterns – Changes in alcohol consumption – Stress– Lack of cold water- reduced ability to cool down


• Mental Health can be impacted as follows:

– Anxiety and depression– Post traumatic stress disorder– Insecurity

– Grief

– Stress, self harm and possible suicide

– Drug and alcohol misuse

– Impacts on individuals, communities

– Loss of social cohesion

– Dislocation

– Specific impacts on children, women and elderly.


Dampak Sosial

Economic impacts may be as follows: • Loss of income and/or assets • Reduction of goods and services• Higher costs of insurance, food, water and energy• Financial strain for Governments and others• Impacts on provision of health services.


Dampak Sosial

• Degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes

• Integration of:

• Need to identify and address the vulnerability components individually and integrated for specific sectors and communities.

Regional Economic Social Infrastructure& Services

Overall Vulnerability


Kerentanan

Penduduk yang Rentan• Elderly• Children (immature immune response) • Socio-economically disadvantaged • Women, especially pregnant and breastfeeding women• The obese • Those who are not acclimatized, e.g. new arrivals • Those who have underlying medical conditions or immuno-

compromised especially cardiovascular disease • Athletes and other participants in outdoor recreational activities • Manual labourers, outdoor workers• Mentally ill, disabled and homeless• Physically unfit – reduced vital capacity


Pemicu Kerentanan• Kepadatan penduduk• Urbanisasi• Public health infrastructure• Other infrastructure:

a) Energyb) Waterc) Transport

• Economic and technological development.


Health Impacts of Climate Change and Health

Conference: Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 25 Nov 2009

A.J. McMichaelNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University Canberra, Australia

Gas Rumah-kaca dan Temperatur

1. Global av temperature: clearcut (albeit naturally wobbly) uptrend2. Geophysical ‘fingerprints’ implicate increased GHG concentration as main

cause of 0.7oC rise since 19503. Global climate models, now highly-coupled, perform well on record of past

‘forcings’/temperature relationship – globally and regionally 4. Six internationally-agreed plausible ‘human futures’ scenarios (i.e. story-

lines yielding GHG emissions at high, medium, low levels)5. Repeated runs with many models yield a range of best central estimates

for the 6 scenarios of 1.8-4.0oC, by 2100 [IPCC 2007]

6. Range in projected temperature rise to 2030-40 mostly due to residual uncertainties about climate system response to existing or imminent atmospheric GHGs

7. Uncertainties re warming in later decades mostly reflect unknowable ‘human futures’

Diunduh dari sumber: www.wellcome.ac.uk/stellent/groups/corporatesite/.../wtx057819.ppt

West Antarctic ice sheet

Arctic ice sheets

East Antarctic ice sheet

60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now Millions of Years Before Present

12840

Temp oC * (vs 1961-90 av temp)

+3oC+5oC

Perkembangan suhu bumi

?

Sea level 25-40 metres higher than

todayTripati et al Science 2009

Paleocene

* Temp measured at deep ocean

+1.5oC

last 2m yr = ice-age


Perubahan Iklim terjadi lebih cepat

• IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative [in addition to cautious review process]

• Subsequent research shows increasing rates of: Global Greenhouse Gas emissions Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic ice-sheets, alpine glaciers)

Naiknya muka air lautAlso: Increasing saturation of carbon ‘sinks’ (land and oceans)

Estimated amount of carbon stored in permafrost = twice the atmospheric carbon

1m: half of Bangladesh rice fields2m: most of Mekong Delta


Climate Change and Health Research Tasks and Policy Foci

Human society: • Population size• Economic activity• Culture, governance

Human pressure on environment

Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008

Adaptation: Reduce health impacts/risks

Human impacts: • Livelihoods• Social stability• Health

Health Co-benefits?

Unintended health effects

Mitigation of Climate Change: Reduce GHG

emissions

Climate - environmental changes, affecting:• Meteorological conditions• Water flows• Food yields• Physical (protective) buffers• Microbial activity• Extreme weather events

4

Risks to humans better

understood2

3Natural environmental

processes

1a-c

Need for local prevention


Perubahan Iklim : Jalur dampak kesehatan

Physical systems(river flows, soil moisture, ocean temp)

Biologicalcycles, in nature … &

Ecological links/function

Economic/social impacts: infrastructure, farm/factory production, GDP growth, jobs, displacement

Human Health:• Injuries/deaths• Thermal stress

Indirect health impacts –ecologically mediated

Indirect health impacts – socially mediated

Direct impacts (extreme weather events, heatwaves, air pollutants, etc.)

• Infectious diseases• Under-nutrition• Mental stresses• Other disorders

Climate ChangeImpacts


Iklim & Penyakit Infeksi

1. Climatic conditions set geographic and seasonal limits of potential transmission.

2. Other environmental, social and behavioural factors – and public health strategies – determine where/when actual transmission occurs.


Model-fitted relationship of monthly Salmonellosis case counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five Australian cities, 1991-2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28Average MonthlyTemperature oC

Salm

onel

la c

ount Perth

Brisbane

Adelaide

MelbourneSydney

D’Souza et al., 2003Diunduh dari sumber: www.wellcome.ac.uk/stellent/groups/corporatesite/.../wtx057819.ppt

Photo-synthetic

activity

20o C 30o C 40o C

Hasil Produksi Pangan: Hubungan antara Temperature dan Photosynthesis

0%

100%

Example: Field & Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007:

Globally averaged: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%. So: +2oC would mean 12-20% fall in global grain production.

+2oC+2oC

Plus:• Floods,

storms, fires• Droughts –

range, severity

• Pests• Diseases


World -0.6 to -0.9Developed countries +2.7 to +9.0Developing countries -3.3 to -7.2 Southeast Asia -2.5 to -7.8 South Asia -18.2 to -22.1 Sub-Saharan Africa -3.9 to -7.5 Latin America +5.2 to +12.5

From: Tubiello & Fischer, 2007

% Change (range)

Model dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi serealia global:Percent change, 1990-to-2080


Mitigation and Adaptation

Avoiding the Unmanageable

Managing the Unavoidable


‘Vulnerability’ & ‘Adaptation’

D Schroter et al, 2004Diunduh dari sumber: www.wellcome.ac.uk/stellent/groups/corporatesite/.../wtx057819.ppt

External exposure: climatic and environmental

conditions

Sensitivity of exposed population: immune status, nutritional status,

housing conditions, etc.

Adaptive Capacity:Local governance

Community cohesionFunds available

Public health capacity

Potential health impact - risk of occurrence of malaria

Actual adaptive actions e.g. Regional government Meteorological forecasts Community Surface-water control Mosquito spraying Rapid case treatment Household/personal House repairs Bed-nets

Net Vulnerability to risk of malaria

Population Health Impact: actual outcome

Vulnerability, Adaptasi & Risiko Malaria


Date post:	23-Feb-2016
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INDEKS KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN = Environmental Sustainability Index

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