India @ 7 Billion

Tapping the strengths we have,to leverage the opportunities we will get

Up Ahead

Population dynamics Socio-economic and reproductive

health status Strategic focus

– Youth– Ageing– Sex Selection

Way forward

“ We are 7 billion people with 7 billion possibilities.”

- Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin Executive Director, UNFPA

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Population Dynamics

China and India: The Population Billionaires (millions)

1950 1975 2000 20110

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2532

4076

6122

6974

372622

1053 1210551 915

1269 1348

World India China

Source: Calculated from World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

India: 1.2B of the 7B Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Bihar West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Karnataka Gujarat Orissa Kerala Jharkhand Assam Punjab Chhattisgarh Haryana NCT of Delhi Jammu & Kashmir Uttarakhand Himachal Pradesh Nagaland

Brazil Mexico Germany Vietnam Philippines Thailand France Italy South Africa Argentina Canada Uganda Uzbekistan Peru Romania Ghana Cambodia Belgium Austria Botswana

Opportunity clock ticking fast

1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Overall Dependents Working ages 15-24

Source: Calculated from World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

Annual Population Growth Rates (1975-2100)

“ …fertility, health, poverty, patterns of production and consumption and empowerment are so closely interconnected that none of them can be considered in isolation.”

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Social, Economic and Reproductive Health Status

Inter-state variations (Maxima-Minima Range)

Bright side of India? Other-side of India?

Per Capita Income (at current prices-2010))

USD 2,949(Goa)

USD 358(Bihar)

Poverty (2004-05 revision) 13.1%(Delhi)

57.2%(Orissa)

Female Labour Force Participation (2005-06) 48%(HP)

8%(Delhi)

Literacy (2011) 94%(Kerala)

64%(Bihar)

Child Sex Ratio (2011)(Girls 0-6 yrs per 1000 boys 0-6 yrs)

971(Mizoram)

830(Haryana)

Sex Ratio at Birth (2008)(Girls per 1000 boys)

968(Kerala)

836(Punjab)

Early Marriage (2005-06) (proportion females marrying by exact age 18)

11.4% (Goa)

63.7%(Bihar)

Migration Rate -4.2(Kerala)

8.1%(J&K)

Urbanization (2011) 48.4% (Tamil Nadu)

11.3%(Bihar)

India: Land of paradox

Inter-State variations (Maxima-Minima Range)

Bright side of India? Other-side of India?

Total Fertility Rate, 2008 1.7(Kerala/TN)

3.9(Bihar)

Teenage Fertility, 2005-06 (per 1000 women)

25(Goa)

128(Bihar)

Modern Contraceptive Prevalence Rate, 2005-06

67%(AP)

19% (Meghalaya)

Unmet Need for Family Planning, 2005-06 5%(AP)

35%(Meghalaya)

Skilled Birth at Attendance, 2005-06 99%(Kerala)

27%(UP)

Maternal Mortality Ratio, 2009(per 100,000 live births)

81(Kerala)

390(Assam)

Infant Mortality Rate, 2009 (per 1000 live births)

12(Kerala)

67(MP)

India: Land of paradox

Changing Income Pattern(INR in 000s) - India

2005 20250

50

100

150

200

250

300

101.149.9

91.3

93.1

10.9 94.92.4

33.11.2

9.5

Deprived (<90) Aspirers (90-200 Seekers (200-500) Strivers (500-1,000) Globals (>1,000)

Hous

ehol

d in

mill

ions

Rich

Middle

Poor

Data source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2007

“Charting a path now to development that promotes equality rather than exacerbates or reinforces inequalities, is more important than ever.”

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Strategic focus

Youth Ageing Sex Selection

Gender

Why youth and ageing?

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 21000.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

37.340.1

34.6

25.4

19.015.9 15.2

5.4 5.6 6.7

11.0

19.1

27.331.8

Young Age Dependency Old Age Dependency

Source: Calculated from World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

Demographic paradox

Source: Calculated from Population Projections Report 2001-26, ORGI, New Delhi

“Today’s generation of young people is poised to change the world in fundamental ways…”

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Why youth? Largest ever adolescent and youth population aged 10-24

years (estimated to be 358 million) in India Low education attainment of girls Female age at marriage is low and more than two-fifths are

married before 18 years of age One out of 4 adolescents (15-19) is married and nearly one-

sixth have started child bearing Nearly 45 percent of maternal deaths occur among married 15-

24 year old Unmet need for spacing is high Contraceptive prevalence is low Smaller interval between births has resulted in higher

maternal and infant mortality

“Population ageing is… unprecedented, pervasive, profound and enduring.”

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Why ageing?

80 million elderly in India around 2001– 30 million of them estimated to be living alone– 90 percent of them work for livelihood– About 12 million are blind

Regional variations in the country and linked to demographic transition– Southern states have started going through second phase of

demographic transition Inter-related issues of concern

– Poverty, Migration, Health, Ruralization and Feminization Expected to increase to 173 million by 2026 as per the

expert committee projections

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“…eliminate all forms of discrimination against the girl child and the root causes of son preference, which result in harmful and unethical practices regarding female infanticide and prenatal sex selection”

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Why sex-selection? Pre-natal sex selection Post natal discrimination against girls It is estimated that during 2001 to 2008, 5.7 lakh girls have

gone ‘missing’ annually. Incidents of polyandry, bride trafficking, exchange

marriages and ‘honor killings’ observed in female deficit states. In these states:– Men enforce stringent control over choices available before women

and expect strict adherence to patriarchal norms– Mobility of women is curtailed– Paucity of girls does not enhance their value in society

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SL India and StatesChild Sex Ratio (0 - 6 age group),

2011

Implied Sex Ratio at Birth-Reverse Survival -1994-

2000Difference (Implied

SRB - CSR) INDIA 914 919 51 Andhra Pradesh 943 942 -12 Assam 957 952 -53 Bihar 933 941 84 Chhattisgarh 964 963 -15 Delhi 866 864 -26 Gujarat 886 891 57 Haryana 830 842 128 Jammu & Kashmir 859 870 119 Jharkhand 943 953 10

10 Karnataka 943 944 111 Kerala 959 959 012 Madhya Pradesh 912 931 1913 Maharashtra 883 902 1914 Odisha 934 936 215 Punjab 846 854 816 Rajasthan 883 889 617 Tamil Nadu 946 946 018 Uttar Pradesh 899 911 1219 West Bengal 950 947 -3

Neglect of girls eminent due to low sex ratio at birth and child sex ratio

Note: SRB calculated using reverse survival techniqueSource: Calculated from Census of India Provisional Results 2011

Way forward

“The future depends on the choices that we make now.”

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Addressing adolescent fertility Increasing access to reproductive health services and information

for young people Integrating HIV and RH services to benefit young Increasing age at marriage and delaying first birth

Addressing youth

Adolescent life skills enhancement Integrating life-skills education within the school curriculum Replicating life-skills education efforts for out-of-school boys and girls Linking life-skills with vocational training institutes and National Skill

Development Corporation

Building knowledge base on Ageing Establish support system for the aged (physical, social

and financial) Influencing policy discourse and action

– Advocating at the policy level for old-age security, medical care and social services

Networking with different stakeholders for complementing governmental efforts

Addressing Ageing

Addressing Sex Selection

Strengthening PCPNDT Act implementation Community action to reduce discrimination against girls Strengthening policies, schemes and incentives to reverse

son preference Promoting civil society action against son preference

Thank You