India China Starch Sector Analysis September 2010

8/8/2019 India China Starch Sector Analysis September 2010

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It is rightly said that ' To Grab an Emerging Opportunity in its Bud, One Needs to Keep His Ears

close to Ground '. Investment is also based on this methodology and to extract maximum returns out of an

Investment, one needs to keep eyes and ears wide open to sense early any opportunity coming in the way.

In the last report titled 'Comprehensive Analysis of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector' a

deep tabular and a brief theoretical analysis was presented of last 10 Years' Data to understand the scope

and potential of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector. Now, in this report, we will present a deeptheoretical argument based on the study of Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector over last two

decades to understand the tremendous growth opportunity Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector

provides in the coming decade.

It is worthwhile to note here that Indian Sector is almost a replica of Chinese Sector and Indian

Sector, as at 2010, is at a stage where Chinese Sector was there in 1992. Over the time period between

1992-2009, Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector has grown more than 10 times and Indian Starch &

Starch Derivatives Sector is bound to replicate such growth in the span of coming 10 years.

We will also include in our analysis the consumption-trend ofSugar vis-a-vis Starch in China as well

as India as Starch-based sweetners form 50 % of the marketsize of Chinese Starch & Starch DerivativesSector whereas use of Starch-based sweetners as a substitute to sugar is only now catching up fast in India.

We will also discuss briefly in this report the valuation aspect of Chinese and Indian sector at macro level

and micro level to understand the gross undervaluation of Indian sector vis-a-vis China and a certain

rerating expected of Indian Sector to correct this undervaluation.

Sections of The Report :

Boom Phase in Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector evident from large-scale successful Fund-

Raising by a major company as well entry of strong financial investors like Soros, Blackstone &

Citibank into the sector

Per-Capita Starch Consumption Study of last Two Decades of China

A Brief Comparison of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector of 2010 with Chinese Sector of 1992

A Detailed Study of last two decades' Sugar-Consumption Trend vis-a-vis Starch-Consumption

Trend of China and India

Why Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector is at an Advantage from Investment-point-of-view

vis-a-vis Chinese Sector

Macro Valuation Aspect of Indian & Chinese Sectors ( Sector Valuation Considered )

Micro Valuation Aspect of Indian & Chinese Sectors ( Individual Companies Considered )

Detailed Evaluation of Selected Top Indian & Chinese Companies based on their Installed Capacities

& TTM as well as Latest Reported Revenues, Gross Profits, Net Profit, GPM and NPM.

Conclusion
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Boom Phase in Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector evident from large-scale successful Fund-

Raising by a major company as well entry of strong financial investors like Soros, Blackstone & Citibank

into the Sector

To continue with last Analysis Report on impending boom in emerging economies' Starch & Starch

Derivatives sector and an expected rerating of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector, financial investorslike Soros, Citibank and Blackstone have sensed this opportunity by investing in China Starch Holdings Ltd.

- the cornstarch leader of China - in August 2010. This investment comes after China Starch Holdings

announced that in six months ending June 2010, the group has experienced highest cornstarch price in the

history of its existence. For six months ending June 2010, Company's cornstarch sales increased by 58.7 %

over the same period last year while the average selling price of cornstarch increased significantly to RMB

2,322 per tonne over RMB 1,690 per tonne of 2009 which reflects a YoY increase of 37.4 %.

This is not just an isolated case as in July 2010, JP Morgan & Morgan Stanely successfully raised US$

700 mn. for China Agri Industries, another major cornstarch player of China. The likely robust growth in

company's corn processing business was one of the factors contributing to such a successful respone to its

issue. Recently, China Agri Industries announced its results for six months ending June 2010 and in that itscornstarch sales reached 620,000 metric tons, contributing to a 76.4% growth in revenue. The realisation

price of starch surged 36.2 % YoY while the gross profit margin was at 14.8 % up from 9.7 % of 2009.

To continue further, Asia Bio-Chem Group, another major pure cornstarch player of China,

registered a 144 % increase in topline and a 170 % increase in bottomline in second quarter ended June

2010. This is on back of a 110 % increase in topline and a 179 % increase in bottomline registered by the

company in first quarter ended March 2010. Gross Profit Margin for both the quarters stood at a healthy 17

%.

This is not the end as Luzhou Bio-Chem and Global Bio-Chem, both major corn products' players of

China, have also reported healthy numbers for six months ending June 2010. Luzhou reported a 34.1 % risein topline and 74.2 % rise in gross profit YoY while Global Bio-Chem reported a 13 % rise in topline and a 75

% increase in gross profit YoY for the six months ending June 2010.

All these figures reflect the robust demand scenario for Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives sector

which, in a way, provides an excellent opportunity for proactive financial investors to start investing in

Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives sector. This is because, Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives sector is like a

replica of Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives sector and as of 2010, Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives

sector is at a stage where Chinese sector was in 1992. Let us see how :

Per-Capita Starch Consumption Study of last Two Decades of China

Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives sector is mainly composed of cornstarch, quite similar to the

trend of China. India's per capita starch consumption as of 2009 is at 1.3 kg. while that of China is 9.8 kg.

and USA is 64.5 kg. while world average is at 6.1 kg.

Now, let's look back and study the Chinese sector to see what potential Indian sector has. In 1992,

China's per capita Starch Consumption was at 1.1 kg. which went up to 1.3 kg. in 1994 and shot up to 2.1 kg.

in 1995. Then, between 1995 to 1999 it remained in the range of 2.1-2.6 kg. and from 2000 it startedregistering exponential growth with 2000 per capita consumption standing at 3.7 kg., that of 2003 at 5.6 kg.,

that of 2005 at 8.5 kg. to the current 9.8 kg.
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A Brief Comparison of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector of 2010 with Chinese Sector of 1992

In 1992, there were only 10 producers of starch & starch derivatives with production capacities

exceeding 50,000 tonne per annum level in China. Also, in 1992, China had no producers with capacities

greater than 2,00,000 tonne per annum. Today, as of 2010, China has 37 producers with a capacity above

50,000 tonne per annum and 19 producers with a capacity above 2,00,000 tonne per annum. To add, China

today has 4 producers with an annual capacity of 1 mn. tonnes.

Now, let's look at Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector scenario as of today. As discussed

before, India's per capita Starch Consumption today stands at 1.3 kg. As of 30 th June 2010. India has, in all,

only 16 producers and out of them only 4 producers have production capacities exceeding 2,00,000 tonne

per annum. This is quite similar to the trend experienced by Chinese sector in 1992 and the study of

Chinese sector suggests that once per capita starch consumption crosses the threshold of 2.5 kg., it registers

exponential growth thereafter very fast.

A detailed Study of last two decades' Sugar-Consumption Trend vis-a-vis Starch-Consumption Trend of

China and India

Now, let's look from the other angle. Let us study the corelation of sugar consumption and starch

consumption as starch-based sweetners account for a major portion of an emerging country's starch

consumption pattern. In 1992, China had a per capita consumption of sugar at 6 kg. whereas its per capita

consumption of starch was at 1.1 kg. In 1995, per capita sugar consumption of china went up to reach only

6.5 kg. while its per capita starch consumption went up to reach 2.1 kg. Then, from 2001 onwards, sugar

consumption went up at a faster pace with 2001 consumption at 7 kg., 2003 consumption at 9 kg., 2006

consumption at 10 kg. while 2009 consumption at 11.5 kg. On the other hand, if you look at per capita

starch consumption of china for the same period then, 2000 per capita starch consumption stood at 3.7 kg.,

that of 2003 at 5.6 kg., that of 2005 at 8.5 kg. while that of 2009 at 9.8 kg. This clearly reflects a trend of

rising substitution of sugar with starch-based sweetners in an emerging country like China.

19921992 19941994 19951995 19991999 20002000 20032003 20052005 20092009

1. 1 1. 32. 1

2. 63. 7

5. 6

8. 5

9. 8China

Starch Consumption (in kg.)


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Now, let us look at Indian sugar consumption pattern. In 1992, India had a per capita sugar

consumption at 9.1 kg. and per capita starch consumption at 0.6 kg. Sugar consumption in India has shown

a consistent uptrend with 2000 per capita sugar consumption standing at 15.5 kg. and 2009 consumption

standing at 20.4 kg.

Thus, between 1992 to 2009 per capita sugar consumption ofChina has increased by 91.67 % whilethat ofIndia has increased by 124.17 %. In the same period, China's per capita starch consumption has

increased by a whooping 790.91 % while that ofIndia has increased by only 116.67 %.

The rise in price of sugar as well as no likelihood of substantial respite from such rise in near future

has recently given rise to a trend in India of substituting sugar with other alternatives and starch-based

sweetners are occupying prominent place in this trend. By carefully studying the chinese consumption

pattern of sugar vis-a-vis starch, it is but obvious that starch-based sweetners are likely to drive the growth

of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives market going forward. With current wide gap between per capita

sugar consumption and starch consumption which are standing at 20.4 kg. and 1.3 kg. respectively,

an exponential growth in consumption of starch to fill the wide gap is inevitable.

Why Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector is at an Advantage from Investment-point-of-view vis-a-

vis Chinese Sector

Already top 4 players of the Indian starch industry have announced their intention to increase their

capacity manifold in the span of next 3-5 years and FY10 as well as Q1FY11 has seen robust growth

registered by each of the top player of the industry ( ReferResearch Report on Comprehensive Analysis of

Indian Starch Sector ). Per Capita Consumption of Starch in India is expected to reach 1.8 kg. in 2010 and 2.5

kg. in 2011 because of the robust demand expected from each of the user industry viz., Food & Beverages,

Pharmaceuticals, Paper, Chemicals and Textiles and more downstream applications getting commercialised

by top 4 Indian companies.

If we look with the backdrop of Chinese Sector developments, then, Indian Starch & Starch

Derivatives sector is at an advantage because of its more concentrated structure. In India, the top company

19921992 20092009

6

11.5

1. 1

9. 8

China

Sugar

Consumption

Starch

Consumption

19921992 20092009

9. 1

20.4

0. 6 1. 3

India

Sugar

Consumption

Starch

Consumption
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is cornering 35 % market share with its immediate competitor cornering less than half of it at 16 % market

share and 80 % of the market is being served by top 4 companies. There is no denying of the fact that the

size of Indian Sector is much smaller at just`2082.17 cr. but it is quite similar to the size of Chinese Sector

size in 1992. In the short span ofjust 17 years, Chinese sector has grown 9 times its size of 1992 and such a

robust performance can very well get replicated by Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector in the span of

just coming 10 years.

This scenario can get more clear if one sees where Indian Sector was there in 2006 at a size of just`

880.99 cr. The sector has already grown almost 2.5 times in the span of just 5 years and going forward it is

expected to continue with such momentum looking at Q1FY11 size registered by the sector at`580.09 cr.

Macro Valuation Aspect of Indian & Chinese Sectors ( Sector Valuation Considered )

Now, let us look at the valuation aspect of Chinese Sector and Indian Sector. First consider ChineseStarch & Starch Derivatives sector valuation. At present, the sector is enjoying an average P/E multiple of

15.1 TTM EPS and an average forward P/E multiple of11.3. Sector is enjoying an average 8.1x EBITDA TTM

and 7.2x EBITDA forward. Sector is trading at an average market-cap-to-sales of 1.2.

Let's now consider Indian Sector valuation. Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector is currently

enjoying an average P/E multiple of 12.88 TTM EPS and an average forward P/E multiple of7.1. It is trading

at an average 4.4x EBITDA TTM and 3.1x EBITDA forward. Sector is trading at an average market-cap-to-

sales of 0.49.

P/E ( TTM ) P/E ( Forward )

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

12.88

7.1

15.1

11.3

P/E Comparison

Indian StarchSector

Chinese StarchSector


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Micro Valuation Aspect of Indian & Chinese Sectors ( Individual Companies Considered )

Now, let's take an example of specific micro valuation. Consider the valuation ofRiddhi Siddhi Gluco

Biols Ltd. ( BSE 524480 ), an Indian company enjoying 35 % market share on an all-India basis of IndianStarch & Starch Derivatives Sector and a 45 % market share in Northern India. This company is used as a

proxy by world's 4th largest cornstarch producer Roquette Freres to gain quick entry into Indian market as

and when market reaches a reasonable size. Roquette has made a strategic investment in the company by

taking a 14.93 % equity stake in 2006. Without going into other details let's straightaway focus on the

valuation aspect of the company and then compare its valuation with its Chinese peers.

Riddhi is currently enjoying a P/E multiple of 11.8 TTM EPS and 5.31 forward. It is trading at a

valuation of 3.9x EBITDA TTM and 2.54x EBITDA forward. It is enjoying a market-cap-to-sales ratio of 0.62

TTM and 0.44 forward.

Now, let's pitch this valuation against those enjoyed by Riddhi's Chinese peers :

China Starch Holdings (HKSE 03838) in which recently Soros, Blackstone and Citibank took an

xEBITDA ( TTM ) xEBITDA ( Forward )

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

4.4

3.1

8.1

7.2

x EBITDA Comparison

Indian StarchSector


MCap-to-Sales ( TTM )

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0.49

1.2

MCap-to-Sales Comparison

Indian StarchSector



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equity exposure is trading at a P/E multiple of 29.8 TTM EPS and 22.77 forward. It is enjoying a valuation of

22.71x EBITDA TTM and 14.51x EBITDA forward while its market-cap-to-sales ratio stands at 2.13 TTM and

1.79 forward.

China Agri Industries (HKSE 00606), which, in July 2010, successfuly raised 700 mn. US$, is trading

at a P/E multiple of 15.1 TTM EPS and 11.3 forward. It is enjoying a valuation of 9.2x EBITDA TTM and 6.9x

EBITDA forward while its market-cap-to-sales ratio stands at 0.85 TTM and 0.61 forward.

Asia Bio-Chem (TSX.V ABC) is trading at a P/E multiple of 29.7 TTM EPS and 6.4 forward. It is

enjoying the valuation of 17x EBITDA TTM and 3.4x EBITDA forward while its market-cap-to-sales stands at

0.95 TTM and 0.42 forward.

P/E ( TTM ) P/E ( Forward )

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

11.8

5.31

29.8

22.77

15.1

11.3

29.7

6.4

P/E Comparison

Riddhi SiddhiGluco

China StarchHoldings

China AgriIndustries

Asia Bio-Chem

x EBITDA ( TTM ) x EBITDA ( Forward )

0

5

10

15

20

25

3.92.54

22.71

14.51

9.26.9

17

3.4

x EBITDA Comparison

Riddhi SiddhiGluco



Asia Bio-Chem


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Detailed Evaluation of Selected Top Indian & Chinese Companies based on their Installed Capacities &

TTM as well as Latest Reported Revenues, Gross Profit, Net Profit, GPM & NPM

Now, after considering the micro valuation aspect of selected Indian and Chinese companies, it is

now time to pitch the Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector leader of India against 2 top companies of Chinese

sector in terms ofInstalled Capacity, Revenue Generated from such capacity, Gross Profit & Net Profit

generated, Margins achieved in TTM as well as in latest reported results, etc. to check the operational

efficiency as well as judge the investment opportunity Indian Companies offer.

Here, we have considered two chinese companies viz., Asia Bio-Chem (TSX.V ABC) and ChinaStarch Holdings (HKSE 03838) as their business model as well as business segments closely replicate

Indian Companies' business model and segments. Also, while considering figures of China Starch Holdings,

we have only included the topline and profits of its 'Cornstarch & Ancillary Corn-Refined Products' business

segment and excluded the business and profits generated by other segments like 'Lysine', 'Fertilisers', etc. as

otherwise it will not result in fair and accurate comparison.

Also, Year-ending for Chinese companies is December while that of Indian companies is March. So,

for TTM figures, we have considered reported results for year ended December 2009 of Chinese companies

and year ended March 2010 for Indian Company.

Latest Reported Results for Chinese companies is for six months ended June 2010, so, for fair andaccurate comparison, for Indian Company too we have combined two Quarterly Results for Quarter

ended March 2010 and for Quarter ended June 2010 - and considered the results for six months ended June

2010.

Asia Bio-Chem reports its figures in Canadian Dollar (CAD) whereas China Starch Holdings reports

its numbers in Renminbi (RMB), so, for comparison purpose, we have converted the reported numbers of

both the companies into Indian National Rupee (`)with the conversion rate of 1 CAD = 44.80 `and 1 RMB= 6.9 `.

Now, let's enlist all the parameters and then discuss each one in detail :

MCap-to-Sale s ( TTM ) MCap-to-Sale s ( Forward )

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0.62

0.44

2.13

1.79

0.85

0.61

0.95

0.42

MCap-to-Sales Comparison

Riddhi SiddhiGluco



Asia Bio-Chem


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Riddhi Siddhi Gluco

(BSE - 524480)

Asia Bio-Chem

(TSX.V - ABC)

China Starch Holdings

(HKSE - 03838)

Installed Annual Capacity 440000 900000 1300000

Revenue TTM `745.61 cr. `397.51 cr.(CAD 88.73 mn.)

`983.73 cr.(RMB 1425.70 mn.)

Gross Profit TTM `119.91 cr. `64.49 cr.(CAD 14.39 mn.)

`65.76 cr.(RMB 95.30 mn.)

Gross Profit Margin TTM ( in % ) 16.08 16.2 6.7

Net Profit TTM `39.21 cr. `9.45 cr.(CAD 2.11 mn.)

NA

Net Profit Margin TTM ( in % ) 5.26 2.38 NA

Latest Reported Revenue(for 6 Months ended June 2010)

`434.02 cr. `433.74 cr.(CAD 96.81 mn.)

`590.70 cr.(RMB 856.08 mn.)

Latest Reported Gross Profit(for 6 Months ended June 2010)

`94.06 cr. `73.31 cr.(CAD 16.36 mn.)

`65.82 cr.(RMB 95.39 mn.)

Latest Reported Gross ProfitMargin in %

(for 6 Months ended June 2010)

21.69 16.95 11.1

Latest Reported Net Profit(for 6 Months ended June 2010)

`39.53 `29.53 cr.(CAD 6.59 mn.)

NA

Latest Reported Net ProfitMargin in %

(for 6 Months ended June 2010)

9.11 6.81 NA

Following things need to be noted from above figures :

(1) With an installed capacity ofjust 4,40,000 tonnes per year, Riddhi Siddhi is reporting on a TTM

basis a revenue which is :

75 % ofthat achieved by China Starch Holdings which is having a capacity of13,00,000

tonnes per year and

2 times ofthat achieved by Asia Bio-Chem which is having a capacity of9,00,000 tonnes

per year. Problem at one of the plants of Asia Bio-Chem in the TTM period considered

needs to be noted here which has got resolved subsequently thereafter and so the 'Latest


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Reported Results' for 6 months ended June 2010 will provide a fair comparative picture of

Aisa Bio-Chem and Riddhi Siddhi.

(2) In 'Latest Reported Results', where we have considered results of six months ended June 2010 of all

the three companies, Riddhi Siddhi has achieved a topline which is :

73 % ofthat achieved by China Starch Holdings which is having a capacity of 13,00,000

tonnes per year and almost similar to that achieved by Asia Bio-Chem which is having a capacity of 9,00,000

tonnes per year.

(3) Gross Profit Margin ofRiddhi for TTM is :

almost 2.5 times ofthat achieved by China Starch Holdings over the same period

almost same as achieved by Asia Bio-Chem over the same period

(4) Gross Profit Margin ofRiddhi for Six Months Ended June 2010 is :

2 times ofthat achieved by China Starch Holdings in six months ended June 2010

1.3 times ofthat achieved by Asia Bio-Chem in six months ended June 2010

(5) Net Profit Margins ofRiddhi for both, TTM as well as six months ended June 2010, has been 2.2

times and 1.3 times respectively of that achieved by Asia Bio-Chem over the same periods.

Comparable figures of NPM for China Starch Holdings are not available as the company has other

reportable segments like 'Lysine', 'Ferilisers', etc. which are not considered.

To conclude the evaluation aspect, it is evident that with less than half the capacity as compared to

Chinese peers, Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives companies like Riddhi Siddhi are reporting much better

utilisation levels as well as operational efficiencies. In case of an accelerated growth of the sector driven by

booming demand, Indian Companies, especially top 4 companies, are in a position to create much larger

scale accompanied by robust cash generation as compared to Chinese peers.

Re ve nue ( TTM ) Gross Profit ( TTM ) Net Profit ( TTM )

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

745.61

119.939.21

983.73

65.70

397.5

64.49.45

TTM Comparison(figures in ` cr. )

Riddhi SiddhiGluco(Capacity -4,40,000 TPA)

China StarchHoldings(Capacity -13,00,000 TPA)

Asia Bio-Chem(Capacity -9,00,000 TPA)


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Revenue ( Jan-June 2010 ) Gross Profit ( Jan-June 2010 ) Net Profit ( Jan-June 2010 )

0

200

400

600

800

434.02

94.0639.53

590.7

65.820

433.74

73.3129.53

Latest Reported Results Jan-June 2010 Comparison(figures in ` cr. )

Riddhi Siddhi Gluco(Capacity -

4,40,000 TPA)


Asia Bio-Chem(Capacity - 9,00,000TPA)

Gross Profit Margins ( Jan-June 2010 ) Net Profit Margins ( Jan-June 2010 )

0

5

10

15

20

2521.69

9.11

11.1

0

16.95

6.81

Latest Reported Results' Jan-June 2010 Margin Comparison( figures in % )

Riddhi Siddhi Gluco(Capacity - 4,40,000TPA)

China StarchHoldings (Capacity -13,00,000 TPA)

Asia Bio-Chem(Capacity - 9,00,000TPA)

Gro ss Pro fit Margins ( TTM ) Ne t Pro fit Margins ( TTM )

0

5

10

15

20

16.08

5.266.7

0

16.2

2.38

TTM Margin Comparison ( GPM & NPM )( figures in % )

Riddhi SiddhiGluco(Capacity -4,40,000 TPA)


Asia Bio-Chem(Capacity -9,00,000 TPA)


12/12

Conclusion

Indian Markets have started trading at par, if not at premium valuations, than its peers like

Hongkong and China. In such a scenario, investment into Indian Markets needs to get channelised in such

sectors of the economy which are not only expected to register a double digit growth for next decade butoffer potential for exponential growth in the coming decade. Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector is

one such sector of Indian economy which is expected to emerge as the next sunrise sector of Indian

Economy. A Study of Chinese Starch & Starch Derivatives sector provided in this report confirm this

prognosis and the current undervaluation as well as concentrated structure of Indian sector provide

proactive financial investors a safe investment opportunity into the sector.

A premium operational efficiency, a premium utilisation, a premium margin environment as

well as a premium cash generating ability has to be rewarded by premium valuations and not by remnant

valuations. Although in this report we have taken into consideration the financial parameters as well as

valuation aspects of only the leader of Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector which is the most efficient

company of Indian sector, still, even if one goes down the line to 2nd 3rd or 4th company, each of the companyscores high in terms of operational efficiencies as compared to all the chinese companies. All the top 4

companies viz., Riddhi Siddhi, Anil Products, Sukhjit Starch and Gujarat Ambuja Exports (Maize-Processing

Division) operate at much higher operating margins than Chinese companies and at net level their

cash generating ability is much superior. Still, each of the company is available at a substantial

discount to all Chinese peers, most probably because of their size of operations. However, with aggresive

expansion in capacities planned over the next 3-5 years by each of the player, the size issue is expected to

get corrected sooner rather than later. This process has already started with the leader of the sector viz.,

Riddhi Siddhi Gluco reaching the size of many of the Chinese Companies in FY10 and is expected to

surpass the size of some of the Chinese Companies in FY11.

A case in point here is the fact that with rise in size, the margins are expanding aggresively,in fact. at a much faster pace which augurs very well for the Top 4 Indian Companies. With Gross Margins

and Net Margins of top 4 Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Companies standing at double that of Chinese

Companies while the valuation of them ruling at a significant discount to Chinese peers, a correction in

valuation is expected in the near future because, gone are the days when Indian Markets were trading at

discount to China and Hongkong. Now is the phase when one is seeing a premium valuation attached to

India's Growth and in such a phase one is getting an opportunity to invest in a sector which is trading at a

discount. Hence, a phase of discovery is bound to start for Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector which

will see it trading at par, if not at premium, to Chinese sector valuation. Underownership of the Indian

sector players is another thing which will act as a hedge to any expected correction in Indian or World

Markets and a single digit P/E valuation as well as sub-1x sales valuation provide a great margin of safety

towards the investment into Indian Sector.

Finishing again with the saying ' To Grab an Emerging Opportunity in its Bud, One needs to

Keep His Ears close to Ground '. Investment is also based on this methodology and to extract maximum

returns out of an Investment, one needs to keep eyes and ears wide open to sense early any opportunity

coming in the way. Healthy FY10 and robust Q1FY11 numbers posted by each of the top 4 players of

Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives sector are the developments that need to be sensed and the deep

study of Chinese Sector a replica of Indian Sector is the tool one can use and the entry of financial

investors like Soros, Blackstone and Citibank into Chinese Sector in August 2010 as well as successful fund-

raising by many companies of Chinese Sector are the prima-facie indications one can diagnose to predict

the emerging opportunity of investment into Indian Starch & Starch Derivatives Sector.

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India China Starch Sector Analysis September 2010

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