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India Economic Monitor January 2021 Update
COVID-19India Economic MonitorJanuary 2021 Update
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COVID-19 Executive Summary
Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
Trends across key economic indicators• Industrial Activity: Daily avg. power consumption witnessed a 5% YoY growth in Dec'20 as compared to a 4% YoY growth in Nov'20; fuel consumption YoY gap
improved to -2% YoY in Dec'20 compared to -3% YoY in Nov'20; Index of Industrial Production fell 2% YoY in Nov'20 after growing YoY for 2 months• Trade: In Dec'20, Merchandize imports saw 8% YoY growth in Dec'20 after declining from Mar-Nov'20 while merchandize exports YoY gap improved to -1% YoY
vs. -9% YoY in Nov'20; Services exports YoY gap marginally improved in Nov'20• Logistics: FASTag transactions increased 11% vs. Nov in Dec'20; E-way bills grew at 16% YoY in Dec'20 ; JNPT traffic continued to grow YoY in Dec'20; Air & rail
passenger traffic improved in Nov-Dec'20 vs. previous months, however significantly far from pre-COVID levels• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months; deposit & credit YoY growth improved in the last week of Dec'20; Value of
UPI transactions continued to hit all time high level at INR 4.16 Tn (100+% YoY growth) in Dec'20• Sector-wise Impact: PVs, 2W & tractor sales grew YoY in Dec'20 (PV sales grew 7%, 2W sales grew 11%, tractor sales grew 41% YoY), 3W continued to see YoY
de-growth; Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year while fertilizer sales witnessed a contraction vs. last year levels in Dec'20; Consumption of steel continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year & previous months; Non-life insurance premium grew vs. Dec'19 levels while life insurance premiums witnessed a dip vs. Dec'19 levels
• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections continued to grow vs. last year for the 4th month in Dec'20, hitting record high levels; MGNREGA work demand & employment trended at 45%+YoY levels
• Sentiment: Consumer sentiment improved in Dec'20 vs. Nov'20; Rural sentiment remained better than urban; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI remained beyond the 50-point mark in Dec'20 (56.4 & 52.3 respectively), Manufacturing PMI witnessed a marginal uptick while Services PMI dipped vs. Nov'20; Improvement in value of stock market transactions (YoY growth) vs. Jul-Nov'20 in Dec'20; Mutual funds AUM continued to grow vs. last year levels & previous months in Dec'20
Last month of 2020 showcased continued recovery across active COVID-19 cases as well the Indian economic indicators. Select indicators hit record high levels in Dec'20, namely, GST collections, E-Way bills and UPI transactions. Merchandize imports witnessed positive YoY growth for the first time after contracting for 9 months. Auto sales, pharma sales & steel consumption growth remained in the positive territory; CPI (inflation rate) eased to 4.6% vs. 6+% highs in the previous months. However, with the hit on the economy in most of the months of 2020, the GDP projections estimate a 6-10% YoY contraction for this financial year.
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0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Total cases
20-Jun
20-May
20-Jul
20-Aug
20-Sep
20-Oct
20-Nov
20-Dec
20-Jan
Deaths Recovered Active cases
Total cases 5.4M 10M
Active cases 1M 302k
Days Doubling Rate 34 282
Recovery Rate 80.1% 95.5%
Test Positivity Rate 8.5% 6.2%
Fatality Rate 1.6% 1.5%
Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis
7.6M
739k
88
88.8%
7.9%
1.5%
Active COVID-19 case count on a decline with improvement in recovery and test positivity rateData as of 20 Jan
1.1M
401k
18
62.8%
8.0%
2.4%
2.9M
690k
29
74.3%
8.7%
1.9%
9M
442k
186
93.6%
6.9%
1.5%
395k
168k
20
54.1%
5.8%
3.3%
10.6M
189k
518
96.7%
5.6%
1.4%
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2020, the year of global turmoil – Quick glance at impact on Indian economy
Flat beginning to the year, with March marking the drop
across indicators; Select indicators experienced
opposite impact (UPI txn., pharma sales)
Period of highest decline across indicators with peak lockdown restrictions in the
country, esp. in April; Tractor sales an exception due to
good monsoon
Industrial activity & trade began gradual recovery,
however significantly below 2019 levels; Select indicators such as bank deposits/credit
showed lagged impact
Last quarter reflected significant recovery, with
some indicators going beyond 2019 levels due to pent-up
demand (merchandize import, PV sales, etc.)
3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8% -4.5% to -10.9% -9.5% to -14.8%
Industrialactivity
Trade
Logistics
FinancialServices
Select Sectors
Macro-economic& sentiment
GDP (Real)-7.4% to -10.6%
Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
Forecasted FY21 YoY GrowthActual Quarter YoY Growth
USD Bn
USD Bn -23.9% -7.5%3.1%
Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Petroleum Consumption MT 1% 4% -19% -49% -20% -9% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2%Index of Industrial Prod. Index 2% 5% -19% -57% -33% -17% -11% -7% 0% 4% -2% NAMerchandize Export USD -2% 3% -35% -60% -36% -12% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1%Merchandize Import USD -1% 2% -29% -60% -52% -48% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8%E-Way Bills Mn 12% 14% -26% -84% -53% 18% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16%Rail Passengers Mn -2% 5% -39% -101% -101% -99% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73%UPI Transactions INR Tn 97% 108% 55% 6% 43% 79% 98% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105%Total Bank Credit INR 7.2% 6.3% 6.1% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%Total Bank Deposits INR 9.7% 9.0% 8.5% 9.7% 10.6% 11.1% 11.0% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3%Passenger Vehicle Sales K -6% -5% -50% -99% -83% -51% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7%Tractor Sales K 3% 20% -50% -80% 1% 20% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41%Steel Sales MT 5% 5% -23% -87% -53% -29% -9% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18%Pharma Sales INR 8% 12% 9% -11% -9% 2% 0.20% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8%GST Collection INR 8% 8% -8% -72% -38% -9% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12%Consumer Price Index Index 7.6% 6.6% 5.8% 7.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 7.3% 7.6% 6.9% 4.6%PMI (Composite) Index 5% 7% -4% -86% -71% -26% -31% -13% 10% 17% 7% 2%
YoY Growth
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Daily Average Power Consumption Volume ('000s MUs)
IIP1 (Index of Industrial Production) & ICI2 (Index of Core Industries)3
-20% -9%-49%
Consumption of Petroleum Products (in MMT)4
-13%
Power consumption continued to improve while fuel consumptiondipped vs. Dec'19; IIP fell in Nov'20 after growing YoY for 2 months
INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
1
1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)3. In view of the effect of the containment measures for COVID-19 pandemic, the indices for Apr-20 & May-20 are not comparable with preceding months4. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis CellSource: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
-16%YoYgrowth -3%2%-10% -2%-16%-25% -3% 3% 10% -4%4%
137134
90
108118 117
124 129 126
137134 133
108116
123 120 121126 126
0
50
100
150
Jun-
20
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Apr-2
0
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
54
117
81
-11%-57% -17%-33% -7%
ICIIIP
IIPYoY growth
0.5% 4% -2%5% -2%
2
4
3
0
1
3.8
2.8O
ct-2
0
3.2 3.33.2
Apr-2
0
3.9
3.3
May
-20
4.03.7
3.6 3.6
Jun-
203.8
3.23.7
Jul-2
0
3.23.4
3.7
3.6
Aug-
20
3.8Se
p-20
3.3
3.4
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-20
Feb-
20
3.3
Jan-
20
3.6
3.6
2019 2020
10
15
0
5
20
Feb-
20
Aug-
20
Jun-
20
15.918.617.8
15.6
Sep-
20
Apr-2
0
17.9
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
18.7
Dec
-20
9.4
15.416.1
14.4
Mar
-20
15.518.1
Jan-
20
2% 5% -19% -19%1% 4%-10%3% 7%
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Merchandize imports increased while exports remained stable; Services trade YoY gap of 5-10% continued in Nov'20
MERCHANDIZE & SERVICES TRADE
2
33.4
Apr-20Mar-20
37.5
Jun-20
33.6
Aug-20
21.121.9
Sep-20 Oct-20
19.1
Nov-20 Dec-201
25.8 23.6
41.1
27.7
21.424.9
10.3
17.1
22.2 28.522.7
31.227.6
30.3
23.526.9
29.5
Jan-20 Feb-20 Jul-20May-20
42.6+4%
+4%
Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports
1. December 2020 Merchandize Import & Export numbers, November Service Import & Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 2nd Jan 2021Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, BCG analysis
Merchandize Trade (USD Bn) Services Trade (USD Bn)
-35% -60% -36% -12%ExportsYoY growth
-10%
-29% -60% -52% -48%ImportsYoY growth
-28%
-13%
-26%
17.016.5
Jun-20 Jul-20
9.3
Aug-20
10.19.9
Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-201
17.019.0
12.0
17.317.7
9.5
17.1
11.1 10.0
18.2
11.1
16.8
Jan-20
9.6 10.1
16.6
10.0
Feb-20 Mar-20 May-20Apr-20
16.4
-10%
-16%
Services Exports Services Imports
1% -9% -8%-10%
-2% -18% -15%-20%
-11%
-22%-20%
6% -10%
-20%
-1%
-9%
-5%
-12%
-6%
-12%
-9%
-13% 8%
-1% -5%
-12%
7% 7%
9% 13%
3%-2%
2%-1%
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10
60
30
0
150
90
120
Jul-2
0
Mar
-20
93
Jan-
20
110 110
Feb-
20
Nov
-20
85
May
-20
82
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
87 97
Aug-
20Se
p-20
122
Oct
-20
138
Dec
-20
55
125
+49%
0
50
60
70
10
30
40
20
48
Oct
-20
Jul-2
0
Apr-2
0
Jan-
20Fe
b-20
Mar
-20
Nov
-20
May
-20
49Au
g-20
Sep-
20
Dec
-20
57 57
41
9
57
25
43
6458
64Ju
n-20
+13%
-84% 18% -88% 437% 48%MoMgrowth
YoYgrowth
-53%
Toll collection suspended
from 25-Mar to 20-Apr2
6%-7%
E-way bill & FASTag transaction volumes grew YoY in Dec'20;Rail freight continued to grow YoY in Nov'20
3
1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000; 2. As per announcement by NHAI; Source: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
E-way bills1 generated(Mn)
FASTag transaction volume (Mn)
Railway freight traffic originating (Mn Tons)
12%-4% 9% 14%
0
30
60
90
120
Mar
-20
110.6
Jan-
20
106.5
Feb-
20
103.1
65.4
Apr-2
0
82.6
May
-20
93.6
Jun-
20
95.2
Jul-2
0
94.6
Aug-
20
102.3
Sep-
20
108.3
Oct
-20
110.1
Nov
-20
0%
-35% -21% -8%YoYgrowth
-5% 4%21% 11% 16%
LOGISTICS
8% 15%2% 11%16% 9%3% -14%6%45% -23%18%12% -26%14%
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250
500450
300
0
350
50100150
400
200 426
Mar
-20
410
Feb-
20
May
-20
Jan-
20
423 414
284
Apr-2
0
275 289
Jun-
20
344
Aug-
20
Jul-2
0
353 380Se
p-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
460
Dec
-20
417
+8%
164 162133
4076
107 123 128 144 148 142
112 106
77
5669 76
95 111 101
150
210240
0
6030
270
120
300
90
180
Jan-
20
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
163
477
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jul-2
0
210
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
259
192
19
244
Nov
-20
95
276 268
204
239 -12%
-37% -39% -29% -1% -32% -83% -68%-1%YoYgrowth
YoYgrowth
Domestic International
-13% -20% -40% -34%
JNPT traffic continued to grow in Dec'20; Air Freight YoY gap improved in Nov'20 vs. Apr-Oct'20 levels, though below last year levels
LOGISTICS
3
JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1) Air Freight (k Tons)
1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall)Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
-19% -5% -30%5% -16% -14%8% -13%10%-3% 1%
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YoYgrowth
Air & rail passenger traffic saw improvement vs. Apr-Oct'20 levels, though significantly below last year levels
LOGISTICS
3
Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
6 5
25 24
15
6 8 10 13
0
30
60
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
0
Mar
-20
14
Apr-2
0
1410
0
May
-20
0
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
201
Nov
-20
Sep-
201
Oct
-20
1
6
31
3
18
1 4 5
29
11 14
0
8
-57%
Domestic International
Air Passengers (Mn)
1% -38% -100% -98%7% -85% -84% -79%
715676
436
-8 -4
4 15 22 39 62122
190
0
100
200
300
400
-100
500
600
700
800
Oct
-20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Dec
-20
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
-73%
Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)
-101% -101% -100% -98% -97% -94%-39%
Negative volume represents net higher refunds as compared to
new bookings in that month
-70% -91%-62% -57% -83% -73%5%-2%
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9
9.1
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5 9.9 10
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10.6 11
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11.0
11.1
10.8 11.1
11.0
10.9 12
.0
10.1
11.3
11.5
0
5
0
15
10
150
140
130
144
25-S
ep
136
31-Ja
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139 14
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-Feb
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-Jul
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143
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06-N
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-Nov
146
04-D
ec11
.314
518
-Dec
147
01-Ja
n
YoY growth Aggregate bank deposits
7.2
7.2
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.1
7.2
6.8
6.5
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.3
99
15
96
0
10
3
102
5
105
0
5.5
5.1
103
28-F
eb
7.5
101
6.0
08-M
ay10
205
-Jun
104
103
24-A
pr
6.7
100
103
31-Ja
n
03-Ja
n
13-M
ar
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1 102
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eb
31-Ju
l5.
710
3
22-M
ay
102
103
14-A
ug5.
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102
28-A
ug5.
310
211
-Sep
5.2
103
102
25-S
ep5.
710
309
-Oct
103
23-O
ct5.
810
406
-Nov
5.8
19-Ju
n
104
27-M
ar
5.7
03-Ju
l
105
04-D
ec
5.8
105
18-D
ec
17-Ju
l
107
01-Ja
n
10-A
pr
101
20-N
ov
YoY growth Aggregate bank credit
Bank credit (INR Tn)
Aggregate deposits & bank credit improved vs. previous months, with increased YoY growth rate
FINANCIAL SERVICES
4
Total deposits value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks
Total credit outstanding value & YoY growth aggregated for all banks
Source: RBI DBIE, Press search, BCG analysis
YoY growth (%)Bank deposits (INR Tn) YoY growth (%)
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Value of UPI transactions in Dec'20 continued to spike by 100+% vs. previous year levels, hitting a new milestone
4
Source: NPCI
0.9
4.5
2.7
1.8
3.6
0.0Sep-20Dec-19
3.914.16
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Nov-20
2.16
Dec-20
2.18
May-20
2.62
2.032.23 2.06
Jul-20
1.51
2.91 2.983.29
3.86
+105%
+92%
1.251.331.311.31 1.00 1.501.23 1.34
YoY%
Volume of Txn in Bn.
1.61
FINANCIAL SERVICES
1.80 2.07 2.21 2.23
Value of transactions in INR Tn
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Consumption of steel continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year & previous months; Cement production fell in Nov'20 vs. last year levels
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
YoY growth
-90% -15%
0.4
0
2
4
6
Jan-
20
4.4 4.14.4
Jun-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
2.0
May
-20
3.5 4.0
Jul-2
0
4.5
Aug-
20
5.74.7
Sep-
20
4.5
Oct
-20
5.2N
ov-2
0
Dec
-20
+30%
Long Steel Consumption
Consumption of Long Steel (in MMT)
-83% -43%
0
2
4
6
4.5
Jul-2
0
4.4
Jan-
20
3.2
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
0.6
Apr-2
0
2.1
4.4
May
-20
2.5
Nov
-20
Jun-
20
3.8 4.0
Aug-
20
3.8
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
4.4 4.5
Dec
-20
+1%
Flat Steel Consumption
Consumption of Flat Steel (in MMT)
-56% -51%-12% -6%
Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis
-5%-10% -7%6%
Cement Production (in MT)
0
10
20
30
40
Feb-
20
Aug-
20
31.4
Jan-
20
4.3
30.7
Jul-2
0
24.8
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
22.4
May
-20
26.4
Jun-
20
24.220.924.2
Sep-
20
27.0
Oct
-20
25.3
Nov
-20
-19%
Cement Production
-85% -7%-21% -14% -15% -4%4%-3% 3%12%34% -7%19%18% 5% 8% -25%2% 7% -5% 7% 2% -38%
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Passenger vehicle, 2W & tractor sales improved vs. last year levels;3W sales continued to dip in Dec'20 vs. last year
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
Passenger vehicles sales ('000 units) Two-wheeler sales ('0000 units)
Tractor sales ('000 units) Three-wheeler sales ('000 units)
-48% -45%
-2% 13% 9% 0.2% 11% 18%
-39%
-3% 13%
-41%YoY growth
27% 9% 48%
7% 11%
-35%41%3%
51
Feb SepJan
54
Mar Aug
116
MayApr
90
Jul Oct Nov Dec
73
12499
6582
Jun
57 605259 4465
114
7135
62
12
65 71 7292
+20.8%
20202019
20% -50% -80% 1% 20% 36% 65%
327323 360
305 286 266 251259 276
322311 289306 307
181
4 49130
217 254311
351 303310
JunMarJan JulFeb Apr May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
+1.2%
Apr
169
MarJan Feb May
184
Jul
165
Aug
188
Sep Oct Nov Dec
109
Jun
161202
240
5 38
195 181121
182146
182196 218
150205
242171 193
135
-9.1%
98 106 11592 91 92 96 105 111 112 104 95104
8454
7 2036 33
54 61 69 61 61
JunFebJan Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-41.3%
-66%-61%-78%-92%-53%-21%6%
-20%-38%-81%-98%-36%-15%-11%-14%-51%-6%YoY growth -5% -50% -99% -%
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Pharma sales continued to grow vs. last year while fertilizer sales witnessed a contraction vs. last year levels in Dec'20
5SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)Source: AIOCD (sales value of month), American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Finance, PIB, The Economic Times, Press search, BCG analysis
Pharmaceutical Sales (INR k Cr)
Fertilizer Sales (in LMT)
Indian Chemical Production Index1 (3mo. moving avg.)
YoY growth
12.1
Jan-
20
Mar
-20
Jun-
20
Feb-
20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Apr-2
0
12.1
Jul-2
0
May
-20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
12.1 11.8 11.210.2 10.3
12.213.2 13.5 12.8 13.0
+7%
10%-9% 2%-11% 0.2% -2% 4% 1% 8%
69
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jan-
20
Aug-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
21
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Dec
-20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
6964
47
2940
92
47 49
6674
+15%
45% 98% 79% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14%
120 121 11598
85 87103
113 117 118 120
May
-20
Mar
-20
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Oct
-20
Sep-
20
Aug-
20
Apr-2
0
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Nov
-20
+1%
-16% -27% -26% -12% -4% 0% 3% 4%8% 12% 9% 11% 53% 18% 3% 3% -2%
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19%
Non-life insurance premium observed a noticeable uptick while life insurance premium declined vs. last year levels in Dec'20
5
Life Insurance premium observed 3% decline in Dec'20 Non-Life1 Insurance premium grew 12% YoY in Dec'20
1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and Miscellaneous Source: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
YoY growth rate for no. of policies
Premium (INR K Cr.)
14%
SECTOR-WISE IMPACT
Premium (INR K Cr.)
-19% -2% -7% -47%
Feb
7
14
OctMar Apr NovMay Jun Jul
32
Aug Sep Dec
221919
Jan
18
24
2017
25
1721
18
37
25
10
2729
232326
2425
2019 2020
-18%-12%-40%-68%-67%-30%81%
-11% 7% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3%-32% -25%-33%18% 2%YoY growth
Jun
18
Jan AprFeb
24
Mar May Jul Aug
23
Sep
17
1413
16
Oct Nov Dec
1617
1314
1816 16
14
1211
1416 16
18
15 1516
2019 2020
8% 18% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12%-11% -11%-9%7% 8%
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Central Govt.'s revenue & expenditure increased YoY in Nov'20;GST collections hit record high levels, growing 12% YoY in Dec'20
Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn)(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance)
Total GST Collections3 (INR Tn)(based on data from GST Council)
-72% -38% -9%
ExpenditureYoY growth
1. Bloomberg Quint 2. Gross Fiscal Deficit is the difference between the total Non-Debt Receipts of the government (revenue receipts and non-debt capital receipts) and Total expenditure 3. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, CessSource: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
67
0
2
1-1
05
2
9
1
3
3
8
4
10
-2
1.8
Expe
nditu
re &
Rec
eipt
s (IN
R T
n)
0.4
Gross Fiscal D
eficit (INR
Tn)
2.8
2.0
Apr-2
0
-1.01.2
1.2
1.9
2.0
May
-20
0.5Ju
n-20
1.6
Jul-2
0
Aug-
201.9
0.4
Sep-
20
1.1
Oct
-20
2.42.3
Nov
-20
1.5
3.1
1.91.6
3.0
Mar
-20
0.2
2.4
0.81.4
1.00.3
Jan-
20
2.2
2.0
0.5
Feb-
20
1.4
3.20.5
Total Expenditure Non-Debt Receipts Gross Fiscal Deficit2
1.0
0.2
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.91
Oct
-20
Jul-2
0
Mar
-20
Tota
l GST
Col
lect
ions
(IN
R T
n)
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
0.98
0.62
0.32
0.87
Feb-
20
0.860.95
1.05 1.051.15
Jan-
20
1.111.05
Dec
-20
+4%
RevenueYoY growth
-15%
21% -21%
-72% -64%
46%
-24%
6%
-28%
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
-12%YoY growth
4%
-35%
-15%
10%
-13%
-26%
1%
47%
9%
12%
48%
58%
8% 8% -8%
-6% 80%5%
5% -2%37%
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Count & value of tenders announced by Central & State Govts. continued to grow in Dec'20 vs. last year levels and previous months
Feb-
20
2.9
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jun-
20
Jan-
20
3.6
Mar
-20
May
-20
Apr-2
0
4.2Ju
l-20
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
1.21.6
2.8 2.5
Oct
-20
0.8
1.8 1.72.1
3.32.7
3.6
Nov
-20
Sep-
20
+51%
Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis
Count of tenders announced by central &state govts (k)
Value of tenders announced by central & state govts (INR Tn)
Nov
-19
Apr-2
0
0.600.46
Mar
-20
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
0.57
Jan-
20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Dec
-20
0.470.58
0.650.580.55 0.50 0.48 0.44
0.740.60
0.87
Nov
-20
Oct
-20
+34%
6
YoYgrowth
17%-10% 7%-4%-5% 29% YoYgrowth
54%-53% 244%-42% 123%125% 55%-49% -20%80%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
110% 43%201% 88%127% 28%253% 52%
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MGNREGA work demand & employment remained at 45%+YoY levels after trending at 75%+ than last year levels in previous months
6
40
30
0
20
10
Feb-20
16
Apr-20Mar-20
33
May-20
28
Jun-20Jan-20 Sep-20Jul-20
20
Aug-20
20 20
Oct-20
18
Nov-20
21
Dec-20
111916
39
+31%
80%YoYGrowth -13% 56%-35%-1%5%
Work Demand (households, in Mn)
Employment Provided (households, in Mn)
50
100
3040
2019
Jan-20
22
Feb-20
21
Mar-20
13
Dec-20
2723
May-20 Jun-20
45
Aug-20
32
Jul-20
24 24
Nov-20Sep-20
24
Oct-20Apr-20
37
+41%
74%YoYGrowth -11% 49%-37%2%5% 74%
83%
MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee ActSource: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
63%
67%
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
65%
71% 89%
83%
50%
47%
56%
46%
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Organized sector hiring and joining activity improved in Nov-Dec'20 (based on select indicators)
6
1. Jan-20 level considered as pre-COVID-19 level 2. Active members refers to total contributing members during last one year as published on EPFO dashboard as on 21-Sep-20; 3. Covers every establishment in which 20+ people are employed and certain organizations are covered, subject to certain conditions and exemptions even if they employ less than 20 persons each 4. Net EPF additions are revised monthly as per the EPFO dataSource: Ministry of Labor and Employment, InfoEdge, Naukri.com, BCG analysis
Naukri Jobspeak Index improved in Dec'20
Net New EPF Subscriber Trend
Net new EPF subscribers are net of the members newly enrolled, exited and rejoined during the month as per records of the EPFO
Employees in an establishment3 drawing less than INR 15,000 per month are mandated to become members of the EPF upon joining
Net new EPF subscribers improved to ~1+ Mn (Sep-Nov'20), higher than last year & previous month levels
Naukri Jobspeak Index
Monthly index which calculates and records hiring activity based on newly added job listings on Naukri.com every month
Jobs analyzed for the monthly index are qualified on the basis of white-collar jobs belonging to the organized corporate sector
100 101
82
40 3851 53 59
74 74 73
83
0
50
100
150
Jun’20Jan’20 Feb’20 Dec’20Jul’20Apr’20Mar’20 May’20 Aug’20 Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20
Naukri Jobspeak Index
100
Jan-201
number taken as base for
index (100)
Net new EPF Subscriber (in Mn)
0.0
-0.5
0.5
1.5
1.0
-0.21
Mar’20
1.01
1.33
0.57
Feb’20 Aug’20May’20Jan’20 Apr’20
0.58
0.81
Jun’20 Jul’20
-0.19
Sep’20 Oct’20 Nov’20
0.83
1.00
0.79
1.02
0.50
0.31
0.62
0.22
0.690.54
1.06
0.640.73
0.34
0.83
2019 2020
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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WPI eased from 1.6% to 1.2% and CPI eased to 4.6%, led by easing prices of some food items in Dec'20
6
1. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commodities 2. The wholesale price index (WPI) measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level –that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as year on year increase in prices of the commoditiesNote: In May 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Act, 1934 was amended to provide a statutory basis for the implementation of the flexible inflation targeting framework. Source: BCG Analysis. DPIIT, MOSPI, Office of the Economic Advisor - Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade,CMIE
Monthly inflation rate (%)
3.52.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.82.0
1.2 1.20.3 0.0
2.83.5
2.3
0.2
1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2
10
5
-5
0
Feb-
19Ja
n-19
Dec
-18
Apr-2
0
Mar
-19
Feb-
20
Apr-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
n-19
Jul-1
9
Oct
-20
Aug-
19
Oct
-19
Sep-
19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
0.4M
ar-2
0
-1.6
-3.4
-1.8M
ay-2
0Ju
n-20
-0.6
Jul-2
0Au
g-20
Nov
-20
Sep-
20
Dec
-20
0.6
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)2 Consumer Price Index (CPI)1
2.12.0
2.62.9
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.1
4.0
7.47.6
7.2
6.3
6.26.7 6.7
7.37.6
6.9
0
4
8
6
2
3.3
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
4.6
Feb-
19M
ar-1
9
4.6
Apr-1
9
6.6
May
-19
Jun-
19Ju
l-19
Apr-2
0
Aug-
19
Oct
-20
Sep-
19O
ct-1
9
5.5
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Sep-
20
Feb-
20
5.8
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20Ju
l-20
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
Nov
-20
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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Dec'20 repo & reverse repo rate remained at the same level; base rate & MCLR on bank borrowings marginally dipped vs. previous months
1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate was introduced from April 2016 for fixing interest rates, and replaced the former Base rate methodology (based on average cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banksSource: CMIE, RBI DBIE
Reserve bank’s policy rates (%) MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks (Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)
8.24
4.00
3
6
9
12
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
Dec
-20
Policy rate %
3.35
Reverse Repo rate4Base rate 2 Repo rate3
7.327.32 7.32
8.62 8.55
6.10 5.95
3
6
9
12
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Jul-2
0
Oct
-20
Mar
-20
Dec
-19
Feb-
20
Dec
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Nov
-20
MCLR (%)
7.30
Total
Foreign BanksPublic Sector Banks
Private Sector Banks
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
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INR remained rangebound between ~73/dollar; Forex reserves continued to reach new peaks, at ~581 USD Bn in Dec'20
Source: CMIE, RBI
Exchange Rate (INR/USD) Forex reserves (USD Billion)
6MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
76.24
73.59
Dec
-20
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Jan-
20
Feb-
19M
ar-1
9Ap
r-19
Jun-
19M
ay-1
9
Jul-1
9
Sep-
20
Aug-
19Se
p-19
80
Oct
-19
Oct
-20
Aug-
20
Feb-
20
Jun-
20
Nov
-19
Apr-2
0M
ay-2
0
Jul-2
0
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Nov
-20
70
75
70.73
68.81
71.49 +4%
541
Jan-
20
581
Jul-2
0
Mar
-20
Feb-
20
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Sep-
20
Oct
-20
479
Nov
-20
471 482 476 493 507535 542 561 575
+23%
Forex reserves (USD Billion)Exchange Rate (INR/USD)
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India witnessed significant FDI in Jan-Oct'20
1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Oct'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
6
2.3 3.1 3.25.5 4.6 3.0 2.8 2.5
4.7 4.51.6
4.2 4.0 2.5 3.25.5 4.1
7.64.7
2.8 3.0 4.1 3.7 5.5 6.24.0 4.9
1.3 0.8 0.14.0
18.4
3.3 5.1
Jun-
18
Mar
-18
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Dec
-18
Feb-
18
Aug-
20
Apr-1
8
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Aug-
19
Mar
-19
May
-18
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Oct
-202
Apr-1
9
Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn)
$42 Bn2018
$50 Bn2019
$48.1 BnJan-Oct'20
xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows
Including Reliance-Jio Deals
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Foreign Institutional Investments improved marginally in Oct'20 albeit remained somber in Jan-Oct'20
-1.4-1.7
Jan-
18
Aug-
18
Sep-
19
0.3
May
-19
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr-1
8
Jan-
19
-1.5
Jul-2
0
Jul-1
8
-4.9
Jun-
18
-3.2
May
-18
Oct
-201
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
-2.1
Nov
-18
Jun-
19
Dec
-18
-1.0-0.5
Oct
-19
Feb-
19
2.20.3
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
-3.8
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
1.2
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
0.3
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
2.0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
3.4 3.0 1.9
-4.2
4.69.3
1.9
-0.5
2.76.0
-1.4
-15.0
-1.0
3.10.6
6.7
-0.3
3.01.7
Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn)
-$11 Bn2018
$26 Bn2019
-$3.5 BnJan-Oct'20
xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs
1. Oct'20 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
6
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Manufacturing PMI saw a marginal uptick while Services PMI dipped vs. Nov'20 levels in Dec'20 albeit above the 50-point mark
SENTIMENT –MFG. & SERVICES PMI
7
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession.Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
Manufacturing PMI reached 56.4 in Dec'20, a marginal uptick from the Nov'20 mark
Services PMI dipped to 52.3 in Dec'20, compared to the 53.7 mark in Nov'20
Manufacturing PMI Services PMI
Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contraction
in the sector
55.5 57.5
33.734.2
41.8
49.854.1 53.7 52.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Apr-2
0
May
-20
Jun-
20
Oct
-20
Jul-2
0
Sep-
20
Aug-
20
Jan-
20
Nov
-20
Mar
-20
Feb-
20
Dec
-20
49.3
12.6
5.4
50
-6%
55.354.551.8
47.2
46.0
52.056.8
58.956.3 56.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Jul-2
0
Aug-
20
Jan-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Feb-
20
Dec
-20
Apr-2
0
Sep-
20
50
30.827.4
+2% Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contraction
in the sector
Manufacturing PMI exceeded the global PMI levels of 53.8 in
Dec'20
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Consumer sentiment still far below pre-COVID levels;Rural sentiment marginally better than urban sentiment
SENTIMENT-CONSUMER SENTIMENT
7
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids Survey
CMIE Consumer Sentiment Survey Rural Consumer Sentiment Index
110 109 106 97
49 44 45 45 51 50 56 55 56
0
100
50
150
Mar
’20
Dec
’19
Feb’
20
Jan’
20
Jun’
20
Apr’2
0
May
’20
Jul’2
0
Aug’
20
Sep’
20
Oct
’20
Nov
’20
Dec
’20
-49%
103 102 104 96
40 37 40 40 38 40 47 46 48
0
100
50
150
Feb’
20
Aug’
20
Apr’2
0
May
’20
Mar
’20
Dec
’19
Jan’
20
Jun’
20
Jul’2
0
Sep’
20
Nov
’20
Oct
’20
Dec
’20
-53%
Sample Size• 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969
villages surveyed over 4 months
Methodology• Longitudinal survey: Same set of
households surveyed in batches over time
• Scoring based on 5 questions:– Perception of current well-being– Expectations of future well-being– Perceptions of current economic
conditions of the country – Perceptions of prospective
economic conditions of the country
– Household's propensity to spend on consumer durables
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index
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Healthcare, IT, Tech. and Energy continued in positive territory in BSE; PSU, CPSE and Oil & Gas saw maximum decline in Dec’20
SENTIMENT – BSE SECTORAL INDICES
7
1. Growth rate vs. 01-Jan-202. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology & telecommunications sector3. CPSE- Central Public Sector EnterprisesSource : BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis
BSE Sectoral Indices Descending order of performance1
-10
-50
-40
20
-20
-30
0
10
40
30
50
60
70
Change (%) Sector % ChangeHealthcare 61.03%
IT 55.74%TECk2 43.32%
Basic Materials 25.85%Consumer Durables 23.24%
Consumer discretionary 20.62%Industrials 17.19%
Energy 16.96%BSE 500 16.60%Telecom 13.99%
BSEAUTO Index 13.15%Metal 11.49%
Capital Goods 10.06%FMCG 10.00%Realty 8.88%Power 5.18%Infra 3.55%
Finance 0.76%Utilities -1.78%Bankex -1.88%
Oil and Gas -4.19%CPSE3 -15.16%
PSU -17.29%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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Value of stock market transactions grew in Dec'20 vs. previous months; Mutual fund AUM grew by 17% YoY in Dec'20
SENTIMENT –STOCK MKT. TRANSACTIONS
7
1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days – figures represented are as of end of every month shown2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shownSource: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
Stock Market Transactions (INR k Cr)
-3% -5% 5%
25
0
10
5
20
15
30
35
Oct
-20
Apr-2
0
Jan-
20
30.0
Feb-
20
Dec
-20
Mar
-20
Nov
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0
31.0
Aug-
20
Sep-
20
Jun-
20
25.527.9 27.2
22.323.9 24.5
27.1 27.5 26.9 28.2
+11%
Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks
11%
Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)
17
64
30
2925 23 20
2520 21
0
20
40
60
80
1,000
0
500
1,500
Dec
-20
Aug-
20
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e ( I
NR
) k C
r
56
India Volatility Index (VIX) 1
70
Jan-
20
82
56
797
34
23
Feb-
20
1,006
Mar
-20
1,375
44
906
Apr-2
0
65
Nov
-20
1,000
May
-20
1,099
110
1,351 1,283
Jun-
20
80
805Ju
l-20
93
1,223
Sep-
20
1,349
Oct
-20
71
1,337
99
58
BSE NSE India VIX
21% 12% 135%BSE YoY
42% 27% 127%NSE YoY
66%
89%
8%83%
90%
10%33%
72%
7%2%
46%
11%30%
60%
17%
102%
128% 19% 18% -6%10% -20%1%
21% 44%25%
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Indian GDP growth forecasts revised upwards to 6.7-9.6% contractionin the financial year
5.2 5.1 5.2 5.83.5 0.8 3.5 1.5
DBSBarclays CrisilFitch Ratings
-1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3
6.0 5.5 5.8 3.32.1 3.6 1.9 1.6
India Ratings
EIU IMF Goldman Sachs
-3.9 -1.9 -3.9 -1.7
May-Jun Sep-Oct
1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb-2020/early Mar-2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts refer to forecasts made between 25-Mar to 20-Sep-20203. Pre-lockdown forecast for SBI is as of 16-Apr-2020Source: Analysts reports, BCG analysis
India GDP growth forecast for FY21 (YoY, %)Mar-Apr
4.7 3.3 5.8 5.5
-5.0 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0
IMFICRA Goldman Sachs
Moody’s
-9.7 -8.3 -10.3 -9.5
1.15.5 4.5 5.2
-6.8 -5.3 -6.0-3.2
SBI3 India Ratings
BarclaysDeutsche Bank
-7.9-10.8 -10.5 -8.4
Pre-lockdown forecasts1
Post-lockdown forecasts2
3.6% to 0.8% -3.2% to -6.8%
Jul-Aug
-4.5% to -10.9%
Data as of 24 Jan'21; Estimates likely to be revised further
4.1 4.7 5.5
-6.0-9.5
-4.5
Bank of America
ICRA FICCI
-10.1 -14.2 -10.0
5.8 5.71.1
-6.0 -6.1-10.9
SBI3DBS Nomura
-11.8 -11.8-12.0
NON - EXHAUSTIVE
5.8 6.0 5.7 5.5
-10.3 -9.5 -10.8 -11.5IMF RBI NomuraMoody’s
-16.1 -15.5 -16.5 -17.0
-9.5% to -14.8%
GDP FORECASTS
5.5 5.1 3.3 4.7
-11.8 -10.5-14.8
-11.0
India Ratings
Fitch Ratings
Goldman Sachs
ICRA
-17.3 -15.6 -18.1 -15.7
GDP Growth Forecast % Range
3.3 6.0 5.2 5.5
-10.3-7.5 -7.7
-10.6Goldman
SachsRBI S&P
GlobalMoody’s
-13.6 -13.5 -12.9 -16.1
5.81.1
5.1 4.7
-9.0 -7.4 -9.4 -7.8
DBS ICRASBI3 Fitch Ratings
-14.8-9.1
-14.5 -12.5
-7.4% to -10.6%
Nov-Dec Jan
4.1 5.7
-6.7 -6.7
Bank of America
Nomura
-10.8 -12.4
5.8
-9.6World Bank
-15.4
-6.7% to -9.6%
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Amidst the turmoil in India, schemes were announced to improvesocio-economic conditions & boost investment in 2020
1. Includes encashment of LTC & Special Festival Advance Scheme; 2. Special interest free 50-year loans to States for capital expenditure for Rs. 12,000 crore; 3. Advance Chemistry Cell (ACC) Battery, Electronic/Technology Products, Automobiles & Auto Components, Pharmaceuticals drugs, Telecom & Networking Products, Textile Products: MMF segment and technical textiles, Food Products, High Efficiency Solar PV Modules, White Goods (ACs & LED), Speciality SteelSource: ILO, Press Information Bureau (PIB); BCG analysis
PUBLIC POLICYFISCAL & MONETARY RELIEF MEASURES
Jul-Aug Sep-Oct Nov-Dec Jan
• Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHCs): ₹600 crore envisaged till Mar'22 for providing accommodation at affordable rent to urban poor/migrants
• Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy 2020: Overarching draft document to provide a focused, structured & significant thrust to defence production capabilities of India for self-reliance & exports
• Production Linked Incentive worth USD 19.9 billion offered to 10 champion sectors3
• Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana: Beneficiaries are any new employee in enterprise (up to 1000 employees) registered under Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) with monthly wages less than ₹15000
• GoI & World Bank sign $400 million project to protect India’s poor and vulnerable from the impact of COVID-19
Data as of 27 Jan'21
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.Upd
ated
28
July
202
0.
• Additional Stimulus: Measures of Rs 73,000 crore announced to stimulate consumer spending1, and measures to support capital expenditure2
• Doorstep Banking: Aims to provide convenience of banking services to the customers at their door-step through Call Centre, Web Portal or Mobile App
• Sanction of electric vehicles: 670 new electric buses and 241 charging stations sanctioned under FAME scheme
• Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship: Several job placement initiatives being taken up
• Ministry of Coal today launched Single Window Clearance Portal, a unified platform that facilitates grant of clearances and approvals required for starting a coal mine in India
• Regulatory Compliance Portal by DPIIT: Aims to act as a bridge between citizens, industries & government in order to minimize burdensome compliances; first-of-its-kind central online repository of all Central and State-level compliances
NON - EXHAUSTIVE
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Sector-wise ImpactCement Production MT -25% -14% -15% -4% 3% -7% NASteel Sales MT -23% -9% -8% -1% 1% 23% 18%Passenger Vehicle Sales k -50% -14% -2% 13% 9% -3% 7%Tractor Sales k -50% 36% 65% 27% 9% 48% 41%Two-wheeler Sales k -36% -20% 0.2% 11% 18% 13% 11%Fertilizer Sales MT 18% 34% -9% -11% 9% -10% -14%Gross Premium (Life) INR -32% 7% 15% 26% 32% -27% -3%Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR -11% 18% 10% -4% -0.4% 3% 12%Pharma. Sales INR 9% 0.2% -2% 4% 10% 1% 8%Chemical Production Index Index -2% -12% -4% 0% 3% 4% NAMacroeconomic IndicatorsTotal GST Collection INR -8% -15% -12% 4% 10% 1% 12%Central Govt. Expenditure INR Tn 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.8 2.4 NAMGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs 2% 74% 67% 71% 89% 50% 56%MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -1% 83% 63% 65% 83% 47% 46%No. of Tenders Announced k -4% 125% 80% 110% 201% 127% 253%SentimentIndia VIX Index 64.4 24.7 22.8 19.5 24.8 19.8 21.1PMI (Manufacturing) Index 51.8 46.0 52.0 56.8 58.9 56.3 56.4PMI (Services) Index 49.3 34.2 41.8 49.8 54.1 53.7 52.3
Data for 2020; YoY growth represented for all indicators (except for India VIX, PMI, Central govt. expenditure, FDI, and FII where absolute values are represented)Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
Summary: Dec'20 trends continued to show improvement across most indicators, with most indicators exceeding last year levels
Industrial Activity
Power Consumption MU -10% -3% -2% 3% 10% 4% 5%
Petroleum Consumption MT -18% -13% -16% -4% 2% -3% -2%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index -18% -10% -8% 0.5% 3.6% -1.9% NA
Trade
Services Export USD 1% -11% -10% -1% -6% -5% NA
Services Import USD -2% -22% -20% -9% -12% -12% NA
Merchandize Export USD -35% -10% -13% 6% -5% -9% -1%
Merchandize Import USD -29% -28% -26% -20% -12% -13% 8%
Logistics
E-Way Bills Generated Mn -26% -7% -4% 9% 21% 8% 16%
Railway Freight Originated MT -14% -5% 4% 16% 15% 9% NA
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs -13% -20% -19% -5% 5% 8% 10%
Air Freight kT -32% -34% -30% -16% -14% -13% NA
Air Passenger Traffic Mn -38% -84% -79% -70% -62% -57% NA
Rail Passengers Booked Mn -39% -98% -97% -94% -91% -83% -73%
Financial Services
UPI Transactions Value INR 55% 98% 93% 104% 102% 107% 105%
Total Bank Credit INR 6.1% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9%
Total Bank Deposits INR 8.5% 11.0% 11.0% 11.3% 10.3% 10.8% 11.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Indicator Unit Mar Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Indicator Unit Mar Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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