Date post: | 15-Jul-2015 |
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Internet |
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2 Deutsche Bank
2014
$647.5
$382.7
$360.9
$218.2
$212.7
$200.7
$172.3
$158.9
$142.1
$136.0
$2,632
(market cap in US$bn)
1995
$51.6
$50.1
$46.6
$42.7
$33.7
$20.3
$18.8
$18.4
$18.2
$16.6
Total $317
2005
$280.1
$147.7
$129.4
$121.6
$108.4
$81.2
$76.0
$70.7
$62.8
$60.0
$1,138
Note: Market cap as of December 31,1995, December 31, 2005, and December 31, 2014
New companies that made it to the top 10
Source: FactSet, Thomson Reuters
The tech landscape changes extremely fast…
3.6x 2.3x
3 Deutsche Bank
(market cap in US$bn)
2010
$295.5
$241.9
$190.8
$180.2
$157.3
$115.9
$114.4
$92.8
$79.8
$63.8
Total $1,532
2014
$647.5
$382.7
$360.9
$218.2
$212.7
$200.7
$172.3
$158.9
$142.1
$136.0
$2,632
Note: Market cap as of December 31,1995, December 31, 2005, and December 31, 2014
Internet companies
Source: FactSet, Thomson Reuters
…and Internet companies are now dominating the landscape
1.7x
4 Deutsche Bank
Tech IPO issuance since 1995
Note: Data as of April 2015
Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic
17 28 25
36
158
217
21 18 17
56 51
60
79
10
44
130
79
59
47
116
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
To
tal IP
O p
roc
ee
ds
(US
$b
n)
# o
f IP
Os
# of IPOs Total IPO proceeds
IPOs used to be preferred route to raise growth capital…
5 Deutsche Bank
$2.8
$9.2
$1.6
$8.1
2012 2014
IPOs Private capital raises
$34.2
$18.8
Top 10 IPOs vs top 10 private placements (US$bn)
…now private financings are getting equally important in tech capital formation
Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic
$25 bn
$16 bn
6 Deutsche Bank
Corporate Banking & Securities
Year of
founding
# of years till
now
Current estimated
valuation (in $m)
2012 3 $8,800
2011 4 $15,000
2010 5 $46,000
2010 5 $7,000
2009 6 $41,200
2008 7 $11,000
2008 7 $10,000
2007 8 $11,000
2007 8 $10,000
2004 11 $15,000
Median 7 $11,000
Year of
founding IPO year
# of years to
go public
Valuation at
IPO (in $m)
2006 2013 7 $12,084
2004 2012 8 $71,286
1999 2004 5 $790
1999 2005 6 $799
1999 2014 15 $168,250
1998 1999 1 $2,274
1998 2004 6 $21,346
1995 1998 3 $1,900
1994 1996 2 $570
1994 1997 3 $438
Median 6 $2,087
Note: Current valuation of private companies as of April 2015
Source: Investopedia, Wall Street Journal, company filings, Crunchbase
Companies are staying private longer with higher valuations…
Top 10 public Internet companies by valuation Top 10 private Internet companies by valuation
7 Deutsche Bank
…leading to the rise of “Unicorns”, “Decacorns”… and soon “Pentacorns”
Unicorn
(US$1.0 – 9.9bn valuation)
Decacorn
(US$10.0 – 49.9bn valuation)
US
Europe
Asia ex-China
China
Source: Wall Street Journal
Indian companies
8 Deutsche Bank
January 2014 April 2015
US
29 companies with a valuation > $1bn 57 companies with a valuation > $1bn
Europe
2 companies with a valuation > $1bn 7 companies with a valuation > $1bn
Asia ex-China
1 company with a valuation > $1bn 7 companies with a valuation > $1bn
China
8 companies with a valuation > $1bn 13 companies with a valuation > $1bn
The Unicorns & Decacorns are growing at a scorching pace
$72bn $214bn
$9bn $13bn
$2bn $21bn
$34bn $131bn
2.9x
1.4x
10.5x
3.9x
Source: Wall Street Journal
9 Deutsche Bank
VC funding in Indian start-ups has grown exponentially (US$bn) Select recent private financings of Indian tech companies
$0.9
$1.5 $1.6
$1.8
$3.8
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Wall Street Journal, press releases
Date Company name Amount (US$m) Value (US$m)
Feb-15 80 n/a
Jan-15 575 1,500
Jan-15 100 450
Dec-14 700 11,000
Nov-14 60 600
Nov-14 100 250
Oct-14 627 2,000
Oct-14 210 1,000
Sep-14 60 300
Jul-14 1000 7,000
May-14 210 1,600
Note: Includes only private placements above US$50m
Availability of private financing has also been the key catalyst for growth of Indian Internet
10 Deutsche Bank
Rapid growth in GDP (US$bn) Rapid growth in Internet users (m)
Rapid growth in mobile users (m) Rapid growth in eCommerce (US$bn)
Source: DB research, BMI research
$757
$2,108
$3,122
2005 2014 2018E
27
250
500
2005 2014 2018E
76
944
1,087
2005 2014 2018E
$4
$22
$86
2009 2014 2018E
India at an “inflection point”
11 Deutsche Bank
Corporate Banking & Securities
$22
$480
India China
$147
$1,060
India China
1,267
1,394
1,312
1,416
India China
2014 2017
Population (m) GDP per capita growth
Source: DB research, BMI research
4.1%
7.3%
5.6%
6.7%
India China
2014 2017
Internet penetration Online shoppers as % of Internet users eCommerce (US$bn)
7%
43%
India China
2013-16
CAGR 75% 37%
17%
45%
India China
India will be the next China!
In 2013
Online Advertising (US$bn)
In 2013 In 2014 In 2014
12 Deutsche Bank
Number of years it took to enter the unicorn club
Who will join the club?
2004
2008
2010
2007
2007
2007
2011
Year founded
9
7
5
5
5
4
3
“Getting there faster”
Rise of Indian “Unicorns” and “Decacorns” with many more to come!
Source: DB research
13 Deutsche Bank
1 country
in 2008
20
now
1 category
in 2007
70+
now
Create innovative products
Key takeaways for India Internet entrepreneurs
Source: DB research
Acquire & retain new customers
Expand into new geographies, verticals
Acquire strategically
India’s internet market to hit
$137bn in 2020
Look at the rest of the
world but CREATE
for local markets
Exact replicas rarely
work
There is a lot of talent
and a lot of capital
available
Enormous opportunity
to create value
Growing the
customer base is key
to scaling up
Check the customer
acquisition costs
Adjacent verticals, markets
provide significant
opportunities for expansion
Expand, but don’t lose
focus of your USP
Acquisitions can
enhance market reach
and boost growth
Strict due diligence
required