INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECAST - MitKat · FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2016}Navratri and Durga Puja...

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Cauvery Water Dispute – A Case Study

35 people killed in Taliban attack in Kabul; Peace deal

signed with Gulbuddin Hekematyar, leader of

Hizb-e-Islami

Afghanistan

REGIONAL SNAPSHOT

st th stw October 1 : Start of Navratri w October 11 : Dusshera w October 21 : Counting of votes for the local

nd th th body elections in Tamil Naduw October 2 : Gandhi Jayanti w October 12 : 10 Day of Muharram/ Ashurath strd th w October 28 – November 1 : Diwali w October 3 : Muharram starts w October 15 : Maratha community rally in thrd Kolhapur w October 30 : Lakshmi Puja/ Diwali w October 3 : OBC community rally in Nashik

th rd thth w October 16 or 23 : Maratha community rally in w October 30 : Kali Puja w October 9 : Foundation Day of People's stDelhi (tentative) Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), w October 31 : Death Anniversary of Indira Gandhi

thManipur w October 17 : Local body elections in Tamil Nadu th th

w October 9 : Durga Ashtami w October 19 : Local body elections in Tamil Nadu

THE MONTH THAT WAS

} Terrorist attack on Army camp in Uri area of Jammu & Kashmir

} Agitation over the Cauvery river water dispute turns violent in Bengaluru and southern Karnataka

} Rallies by the Maratha community in various cities of Maharashtra; one of the major agitations in the state since its formation

} Spike in Dengue and Chikungunya cases in various parts of the country

FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2016

} Navratri and Durga Puja festivities may lead to disruption of traffic movement between st thOctober 1 and October 11

rd th} Muharram to begin on October 3 ; localised traffic disruptions likely on October 12 on

occasion of Ashura

th st} Diwali to be celebrated from October 28 to November 1 , traffic disruptions and possible

threat of fire accidents

} River water disputes between Karnataka - Tamil Nadu, Goa - Karnataka, and Odisha - Chhattisgarh expected to continue

EVENT CALENDAR

NAXAL TRACKER ISLAMIC STATE IN SOUTH ASIA

} Security forces continue to crackdown on Maoists in the insurgency-affected states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha; no major activities by the ultras reported in September

} Crackdown continues on neo-JMB, a group sympathetic to IS; IS releases new video featuring Dhaka café attackers

} IS chief for India using money, jihad dreams and religious guilt to recruit

33 killed in factory fire; concerns raised over

industrial safety in Bangladesh

Four major terrorist attacks in the country leave nearly 44 dead; Jamaat-ul-Ahrar

emerges as a major terrorist group

Concerns over re-emergence of support for LTTE; suspect with LTTE links detained in

India, while Sri Lankan envoy to Malaysia attacked

Landslides in various parts of the country causes

damage to life and property

Sri lankaBangladesh Pakistan Nepal

5 7

146

12 13

October 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

4

Government undertakes demolition drive of illegal mosques and madrassas in Rakhine state's Muslim

majority towns

Government crackdown on opposition continues;

opposition leaders work to form a united front against

President Yameen

MaldivesSpotlight: Myanmar

89 15

1716

12 3

10

18

11

19 20 21

27 28222923 24

30 31

25 26

} State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – September 2016

INDIA MONTHLY RISK FORECASTOCTOBER 2016

India Monthly Risk Forecast - October 2016 1

n one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on several Pakistani manufacturers. The attack has Isecurity forces in recent times, 19 Indian soldiers revealed that the terrorists had deep knowledge of from the 12 Infantry Brigade lost their lives in the the camp site and there were several possible line of fire when four militants attacked the army procedural lapses on behalf of the army. camp near Uri town in Baramulla district in Jammu

th& Kashmir. In the early hours of 18 September There has been an upswing in the number of 2016, militants launched 13 incendiary grenades infiltration attempts this year, as per the Ministry of into the army camp within 3 minutes killing around Home Affairs. So far in 2016, there were 90 19 army personnel and injuring 20 more. The army infiltration attempts between January and June this managed to neutralize the terrorists after a year; 54 of these attempts were successful. There shootout which lasted almost six hours. In were 121 infiltration attempts in 2015 of which 31 combing operations, the army further neutralized were successful.remaining terrorists that might have been hiding in announced a review of the Indus Water Treaty the nearby areas. The incident evoked strong reactions from the (IWT), and is also planning to review the Most

Indian leaders, who have accused Pakistan of its Favoured Nation (MFN) status granted by it, Indian Army's investigations have pointed towards involvement. Pakistan has swiftly denied the unilaterally, to Pakistan.the attack being the work of Jaish-e-Mohammad charges. India has called for diplomatic isolation of (JeM), a terrorist group based in Pakistan. This was Pakistan in the international community while substantiated by guns found at the site with Pakistan has called for an international probe into Pakistani writing, while syringes, painkillers, the Uri attack. The Indian Government, in the medications and packets of ready-to-eat food aftermath of the Uri attack, is working on options to carried by the terrorists bore the markings of hit back at Pakistan. The government has already

Terrorist attack on Army camp in Uri area of Jammu & Kashmir

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2India Monthly Risk Forecast - 2016 October

he sharing of Cauvery river water has long doors by protesters. The protests resulted in Tbeen a matter of dispute between Karnataka estimated losses of over Rs 100 crore in just four and Tamil Nadu; the dispute has been ongoing for days. more than 100 years now. However, in September, the dispute turned extremely violent after a Meanwhile, over the past few years, several fringe Supreme Court order, instructing Karnataka to groups have expanded their influence in Bengaluru, release 15,000 cusecs of Cauvery river water to under the cover of protecting Kannada pride. Some Tamil Nadu. Violent protests were witnessed in of the prominent groups are Karnataka Rakshana Bengaluru and in the Cauvery Basin region of Vedike, Jaya Karnataka, Kannada Okkoota and Karnataka. In Bengaluru, the situation took a turn Kannada Sena, who have also been at the forefront for the worse when Section 144 and curfew was of the agitation of the Cauvery water dispute. Over

thimposed in the city, on September 12 , after the the years, these fringe groups, bolstered by political government has looked to defy the Supreme Court Supreme Court ordered Karnataka to release protection, have lent their support, at times violent, order over release of water to Tamil Nadu, the state water at the rate of 12,000 cusecs until September to various causes related of the state of Karnataka. could head towards a constitutional crisis. th20 . Two people lost their lives as protesters continued disrupting the daily lives of the city's The Cauvery water dispute is no more just about the Bengaluru accounts for nearly 40 per cent of India's residents. Police were forced to take action against water supply needs of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. It IT export and 38 per cent of electronic and mobs on the streets involved in stone pelting and has now turned into a battle of identity politics hardware export. Any further protests could thburning of vehicles. Earlier, on September 9 , pro- between the two states of Karnataka and Tamil severely damage the brand of Bengaluru city, as the Kannada groups had called for a state-wide bandh, Nadu, as the pro-Kannada organizations have taken IT hub of India. Such violent protests could break which was near total in Bengaluru and the districts control of the issue. Identity politics crisis of 'us vs out not only over the Cauvery water dispute but any bordering Tamil Nadu. In Bengaluru, offices in the them' can be a prolonged one, without any real other issue which is seen by pro-Kannada city's premier business parks were forced to shut solution in sight. In addition, as Karnataka organisations as not serving the state's interests.

Agitation over the Cauvery river water dispute turns violent in Bengaluru and southern Karnataka


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he Maratha community of Maharashtra, the the reservation issue.Tdominant community of the state comprising of about 32% of the population, held silent During the past one month, over 20 districts in protests, under the banner of Maratha Kranti Maharashtra have seen silent protests with every Morcha, across the state during the month of protest garnering more crowds. These rallies have September. The protests have been silent so far, created ripples in political circles of Maharashtra, but the rallies and processions are unprecedented which has long been dominated by the Maratha in recent history in terms of size and scale. Several community. The state has had a history of Maratha of these protests have attracted more than Chief Ministers but the current CM is a Brahmin. 100,000 protesters, who march in silence to register their protest. There is more to the mass mobilization than mere the Jats in Haryana and the Patidar agitation in

protest for strict action regarding the Kopardi Gujarat. The protest marches were triggered by the rape incident. It is also about scrapping of the Scheduled and killing of a 14-year-old a Maratha girl by three Caste/Scheduled Tribe Prevention of Atrocities Act The Maratha agitation is expected to continue in the Dalit boys in the village of Kopardi in Ahmednagar 1989. The Maratha community alleges that this law coming months. In October, the community has district in July. The first silent march started in is being misused by these groups to target the planned massive rallies in Mumbai, Kolhapur Aurangabad and other parts of Marathawada, and Marathas. However, the official figures about the th

(October 15 ), and also plans to hold a rally in Delhi. subsequently spread to most parts of the state, Act show a dismal record in terms of justice for the

Significantly, the rise of Maratha groups could give including Pune and Navi Mumbai. The three Dalits and Advisasis in the state. The mass

rise to similar agitations by other communities. The demands of the community are punishment for movement is also about the larger issue of growing

OBC community is already slated to hold a massive the culprits behind the gang rape and murder of a unrest and disillusionment among dominant rd

rally on October 3 in Nashik. Even the Muslim girl in Kopardi by some Dalit youths, amendments communities in some of India's richest states. The

organisations in Maharashtra are working to ensure to the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe Marathas have been demanding reservation for a

their demand for 5% reservation is not ignored. (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, and resolution of long time now. This demand is similar to those by

Rallies by the Maratha community in various cities of Maharashtra; a major agitation in the state since its formation


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everal parts of the country and particularly the diseases to breed. Dengue can be fatal if not treated Snational capital region have been grappling in time; and chikungunya cripples its patients with with a major health crisis triggered by the excruciating joint pain. In Delhi, there have also outbreak of chikungunya and dengue. been reports of people getting infected with both Chikungunya has taken on epidemic proportions in diseases at the same time as the aedes aegypti Delhi. Apart from Delhi, several major cities in mosquitoes spread both the viruses. However, North India, including Chandigarh/Mohali and given the size of the chikungunya outbreak, the Lucknow have witnessed a sharp increase in lower rate of dengue cases kept co-infections dengue this year. As per the National Vector Borne comparatively low. Health experts have attributed Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP), around the rise in the number of cases to the lack of 27,879 cases of dengue have been reported across measures to prevent mosquito breeding sites and the country and 60 people succumbed to the the longer spell of rainfall.

st As per medical professionals, there is little disease till August 31 . 5,000 cases each have been treatment available for these diseases which makes reported from West Bengal, Odisha and Kerala. The spread of mosquito-related viruses is not a new preventive measures all the more important. Local Around 12,255 cases of chikungunya have been phenomenon in India. While the central and state civic bodies in India lack adequate training on reported across the country. A report of the governments have failed in their responsibilities to effective measures in garbage and waste disposal Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has stated prevent the outbreak of these diseases, they have and also spreading pesticides in areas prone to that the Delhi government has been hugely under- also not been able to ensure enough beds and water-logging. As long as the state governments reporting dengue cases and deaths. testing facilities in the government hospitals. react only in response to an outbreak without a Municipal authorities in the Indian cities have failed clear roadmap on preventive measures, these Both dengue and chikungunya are viral diseases to develop a standard operating procedure for diseases will become a recurring phenomenon spread by mosquitoes that bite during daylight epidemiological surveillance and lack laboratory every monsoon.hours. Prolonged monsoon rains provide more facilities for the purpose.

stagnant water for mosquitoes that carry these

Spike in Dengue and Chikungunya cases in various parts of the country



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Maharashtra National Risk Rating Risk Rating

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Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – September 2016

High Medium Low

Jammu & Kashmir

Himachal Pradesh

Punjab

Uttarakhand

Uttar Pradesh

Delhi NCR

Haryana

Rajasthan

Bihar

Jharkhand

Chhattisgarh

Odisha

West Bengal

Assam

Meghalaya

Overall Risk

Rating

States



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Political Environment

Internal Security Situation

Extremism &

Terrorism

Civil Unrest

Crime Crime against women

Natural /Man-made Disasters

Pandemics Infrastructure

Emergency Services

State-wise Monthly Risk Ratings – September 2016

High Medium LowOverall

Risk Rating

States

Arunachal Pradesh

Mizoram

Nagaland

Sikkim

Manipur

Tripura

Maharashtra

Goa

Madhya Pradesh

Gujarat

Telangana

Andhra Pradesh

Karnataka

Tamil Nadu

Kerala


he nine-day annual Hindu festival of Navratri, a massive scale. Here, the normal business life is Tcelebrated in the honour of the nine disrupted due to majority of the population manifestations of Goddess Durga, will commence celebrating the festival, and major traffic

st thon October 1 and last until October 11 . The congestions/diversions are also reported.

thfervour will reach its peak on October 11 with the burning of massive effigies of Ravana to celebrate This year, these festivals fall during the month of the festival of Dussehra. Navratri is a popular Muharram, the holy month for Muslims. Mischief festival, celebrated with much enthusiasm in mongers and so-called religious activists are known northern, western and central India; while in the to have previously attempted to utilise the situation eastern states, it is celebrated as Durga Puja. to trigger communal tension, and given the current

socio-political climate of the country, there is a Banks, government organisations, and many other possibility that similar attempts can be repeated. establishments are likely to be closed for public The large-scale celebrations conducted in pandals dealings or observe shortened or reduced working are also susceptible to accidents like fire due to hours. Large crowds, particularly during the last short-circuits or fire crackers and stampedes. three days may cause disruption to traffic. In the eastern states of West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar, public transport has the tendency to be under pressure owing to the increased footfall leading to further inconvenience. In Kolkata and other major cities of eastern India such as Guwahati and Ranchi, the festival is celebrated on

Navratri and Durga Puja festivities may lead to disruption of traffic st thmovement between October 1 and October 11


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he holy month of Muharram, observed by Gujarat. Businesses and organisations operated by rdTMuslims, begins on October 3 this year. Muslims can be expected to remain closed or have

Muharram is the first month of the Islamic reduced operational hours during the 10-day period thcalendar and is considered sacred by Muslims and on October 12 . In Lucknow, a city with a large

across the world. The tenth day of the month, Shia Muslim population, large scale Ashura th

falling on October 12 this year, is of the highest processions are undertaken, across the city significance to both Shia and Sunni Muslims. (especially in the old city), which cause massive However, the rituals of the two sects vary traffic disruptions. Communal tensions are also significantly; while the Shias mourn the death of expected to be high during this time, and caution is Imam Hussain ibn Ali (the grandson of Prophet advised for anyone travelling to the city during this Muhammad), the Sunnis celebrate the victory of period. In Delhi, the Ashura procession towards the processions. It is advised to remain alert of your Moses over the Egyptian Pharaoh. Mainstream Karbala (Central Delhi), causes traffic congestions surroundings due to the incidental risks, including Shia Muslims observe a month-long fast during and diversions in Central Delhi, during the terrorism, stampede, communal clashes, pick-which they do not consume any food or water in procession from Kashmere Gate to Karbala Lane. pocketing etc.the daylight hours.

Large prayer meetings and processions are likely Muharram is a major event in major cities cause localised disruptions to traffic. Administrative *Dates are subject to change depending on the including New Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad, and security agencies will have measures in place to sighting of moon.besides other states like Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar ensure security, medical aid, disaster management, Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, Rajasthan, and and smooth flow of traffic as huge crowds gather for

rdMuharram to begin on October 3 ; localised traffic disruptions likely on thOctober 12 on occasion of Ashura

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The MonthThat Was

ne of the biggest Hindu festivals of the year, he festival is usually celebrated with a display of ODiwali, celebrated for five days, will be Tfireworks that poses credible fire hazards, thcelebrated from October 28 this year, with especially in low-income neighbourhoods where

thOctober 30 being the most important day of the the houses do not necessarily follow fire safety festival. The period immediately before, during, regulations. The festival commonly witnesses and after Diwali usually witnesses a rush in train, makeshift shops selling crackers, which flout fire air, and road travels across the country for the safety regulations and may result in a fire accident. festival; and thus, it is recommended to cater to In addition, authorities in various states conduct long queues at airports and train stations. Traffic in raids at warehouses to clamp down on illegal major urban centres may be disrupted due to the crackers (mostly imported from other countries). rush of shoppers in the period preceding the Some states are expected to impose regulations on festival. Government establishments, banks, and sound levels to reduce the noise pollution during

thother offices will be closed on October 30 (and the festival, while the other states will have metropolitans, critical infrastructure and sensitive any other day of the festival depending on the local mechanisms in place to monitor noise pollution. areas may be increased to avoid any untoward state population's celebrations), and increased incident during the festival week.crowd presence can be expected at temples across Communal tensions are likely to remain high, the country. The increase in crowd may lead to rise especially in the communally sensitive areas. With in crime such as petty thefts or harassments. Navratri, Dussehra, Diwali, and Muharram, falling in Miscreants usually target crowded spots such as the same month, the level of threat from possible shopping centres or temples for pick pocketing or acts of terror in crowded places, like shopping chain-snatching. The likelihood of harassment of centres and other public places, is also likely to women remains a high possibility. remain high across the country. Security in major

th stDiwali to be celebrated from October 28 to November 1 , traffic disruptions and possible threat of fire accidents

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thhe Supreme Court on September 5 had asked of water diversion from Mahadayi basin to Tthe Karnataka government to release 15,000 Malaprabha River. Karnataka government had cusecs of water from the Cauvery River to Tamil petitioned the tribunal seeking the release of 7.56 Nadu. The court verdict had caused widespread tmc of water for the Kalasa-Banduri Nala project. protests in Karnataka led by farmers and pro- The Kalasa-Banduri Nala (diversion) project is being Kannada associations who argued that the state undertaken by Karnataka to improve drinking water needed the water more compared to its supply to the twin cities of Hubballi-Dharwad and neighbour. Normal life in Bengaluru was severely the districts of Belagavi and Gadag. Following the

thaffected on September 12 , after protesters tribunal's judgement in favour of Goa, violent targeted property and vehicles of Tamil speaking protests were reported across north Karnataka in people over the Cauvery river water dispute. Two the month of July. The protesters had also called for

thpeople lost their lives in police firing and over 78 a statewide bandh on July 30 , which had received over the construction of reservoirs. Chhattisgarh vehicles were torched during the protest. The widespread support in the state and had affected wants to build six dams and inter-link some government had to deploy 1,700 paramilitary the normal life across most parts of Karnataka. With Mahanadi tributaries for better irrigation and personnel and impose curfew in parts of the city to the pro-Kannada organisations and other activist storage of water for the lean months, while Odisha contain the violence. In Tamil Nadu farmers' and groups already involved in protests over the states that the dams would deplete water in its main traders' bodies in Tamil Nadu called for a bandh on Cauvery water sharing issue, there is a possibility of reservoir, the Hirakud dam. Complicating matters is

thSeptember 16 . Given Karnataka's call to defer a political revival of the Mahadayi issue in tandem a growing political rivalry between the Biju Janata release of water until December, the issue is with the Cauvery issue. Dal (BJD) – which is in power in Odisha – and the BJP, expected to continue to simmer over the coming which rules Chhattisgarh. The dispute between months. Meanwhile, a water-sharing dispute between Odisha and Chhattisgarh is expected to be

Odisha and Chhattisgarh over the Mahanadi River is protracted one, with political ambitions of the two Karnataka has also been locked in a legal battle heating up after months of centre-brokered rival parties hampering any timely and mutually with the neighbouring state of Goa over the issue negotiations have been unable to break a deadlock agreeable solution on the issue.

River water disputes between Karnataka - Tamil Nadu, Goa – Karnataka, and Odisha – Chhattisgarh expected to continue

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stw October 1 :

ndw October 2 :

rdw October 3 :

rdw October 3 :

thw October 9 :

thw October 9 :

thw October 11 :

thw October 12 :

thw October 15 :

th rdw October 16 or 23 :

thw October 17 :

thw October 19 :

stw October 21 :

th stw October 28 – November 1 :

thw October 30 :

thw October 30 :

stw October 31 :

Start of Navratri Gandhi Jayanti Muharram starts OBC community rally in Nashik Foundation Day of People's Revolutionary Party

of Kangleipak (PREPAK), Manipur Durga Ashtami

Dusshera 10th Day of Muharram/ Ashura Maratha community rally in Kolhapur

Maratha community rally in Delhi (tentative)

Local body elections in Tamil Nadu Local body elections in Tamil Nadu Counting of votes for the local body elections in

Tamil NaduDiwali

Lakshmi Puja/ Diwali Kali Puja Death Anniversary of Indira Gandhi

MonthlyForecast


Key DatesOctober 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

5 7 8

9 10

17 18 20 22

23 24 26

14

16

1

2 3 4

19

29

30

6

11 12 13

27 28


15

21

25

31

12


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The MonthThat Was

n a move that could further inflame tensions Muslim minority that is officially stateless. Since the Ibetween Buddhist and Muslim communities in violence, about 100,000 Rohingya have been the country, government officials in Myanmar's confined to squalid displacement camps where they Rakhine State plan on demolishing hundreds of are denied movement, education and health care.buildings, including mosques and Islamic religious schools, in the state's Muslim-majority townships Buddhist-majority Myanmar has seen a rise in anti-of Maungdaw and Buthidaung, over claims that Muslim sentiment in recent years, sometimes the structures were built illegally. Thousands of boiling over into violent outbursts. In the recent buildings could be subject to removal, including a past, communal riots are known to erupt in several dozen mosques, 35 schools and more than 2,500 major towns, and Buddhist nationalist groups have houses. grown in size and influence. In June, a dispute

between neighbours over a Muslim school being Rakhine is home to more than 1.1 million built in central Myanmar led to a mob attack that has come under international pressure to ease 'stateless' Rohingya Muslims whom many left a mosque in flames and caused dozens of tensions and resolve the issue of statelessness of Burmese call “Bengalis” because they consider the Muslims to flee. Barely a week later, a mob razed a the Rohingyas.Rohingyas illegal immigrants from neighbouring Muslim prayer hall in the country's north. Of some Bangladesh. It was the site of deadly riots between 500 people reportedly involved in the attack, five Buddhists and Muslims that began in 2012, and were arrested.tensions between the two communities have remained high in the years since the ethnic conflict Aung Saa Suu Kyi, Myanmar's de-facto leader and broke out. Most of those affected were Rohingya, a her new government, which took power in April,

Government undertakes demolition drive of illegal mosques and madrassas in Rakhine state's Muslim majority towns

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India Monthly Risk Forecast - 2016 October


Continued....

13


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The MonthThat Was

he United States lifted sanctions on 10 with Myanmar, while helping US companies enter Tbusinesses ''in Myanmar as it seeks to work on the country's market. Trade between the two the transition of the country away from decades of countries was about $400 million last year, military rule and ease trade with one of the according to IMF data. Fueled by investments in region's fastest-growing economies. The Treasury energy, including natural gas, Myanmar has become Department removed restrictions on seven state- one of Asia's fastest-growing economies. The owned enterprises and three state-owned banks, economy expected to expand 8.6 percent this year which were earlier on a blacklist. The U.S. will also and 7.7 percent in 2017, according to the IMF. extend a loan guarantee with local microfinance institutions in Myanmar to provide more than $10 To encourage further democratic reforms and million in loans to small businesses in Myanmar. maintain pressure on targeted individuals and The move is the latest sign of reconciliation entities and the military, certain sanctions will between the U.S. and Myanmar after more than remain in place, the US Treasury has stated. They also sent a letter to Presidet Obama, urging him to two decades of hostility, which began with include a visa ban that bars some former and maintain U.S. sanctions on Myanmar, on grounds of Myanmar's military government undertaking current members of Myanmar's military from the current plight of Rohingyas and alleged human annulment of elections in 1990 and the house traveling to the US, and limitations on foreign rights abuses committed by the country's powerful arrest of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. After assistance to the military. In addition, the sanctions military. The groups also want the sanction to be Myanmar's military chiefs began instituting more are also targeted at those who obstruct political kept in place until the government makes progress political freedoms and Suu Kyi was freed, reform in Myanmar, commit human-rights abuses, in peace talks with the various ethnic groups, President Barack Obama became the first or propagate military trade with North Korea. properly manages natural resource extractions, and American President to visit the country in 2012.

reforms the current constitution drawn up by the Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department has former military junta that ruled the country.

Easing of sanctions is part of the Obama criticized Myanmar's treatment of the Rohingyas. In administration's efforts to deepen its engagement addition, nearly 50 civil society organizations have

U.S. decides to lift trade sanctions; country's economy expected to get a boost

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14


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t least 33 people were killed in a boiler profile industrial accidents in the recent years. After Aexplosion and subsequent fire at a packaging the Rana Plaza building accident, in 2013, which thplant near Dhaka on September 10 . The killed more than 1,100 garment workers, two

packaging factory collapsed due to a major blaze industry watchdogs referred to as the Accord on Fire caused by an explosion in the boiler room. Around and Building Safety in Bangladesh and the Alliance 20 firefighting units were deployed to douse the for Bangladesh Worker Safety were established flames but the chemical filled drums in the ground based on legally binding agreements between floor of the factory made the task a difficult one. global brands, retailers and labour unions for work-Nearly 100 people were inside the four-storey environment safety. The government along with the factory when the incident occurred. In another International Labour Organization has been incident last month, three workers sustained carrying out inspections at thousands of factories. severe burn injuries when a fire broke out at a two- In September, the government also started a two Bangladesh have not fulfilled their obligations to storey tin-shed structure at Islambagh. month-long training course on electrical safety help pay for renovations particularly for fire exits

inspection in factories in order to reduce fire and vital structural repairs. International labour-rights and factory-safety incidents in the country's industrial sector. groups have called on the Bangladesh government The danger of fire hazards is not confined only to the to speed up and expand the country's industrial- Most of the fire incidents in the country occur due garment sector in Bangladesh. It is only recently safety program after the fire at the packaging to poor electrical installations and bad that the Department of Inspection for Factories and factory. Low-cost manufacturing, especially in the maintenance. The conviction and stringent action Establishments started talks with different agencies Readymade Garment (RMG) sector, is the against local factory owners shifts the responsibility to launch inspections into non garment factories. mainstay of the Bangladesh economy. However, away from the authorities and the international The non-garment factories have been running the sudden spurt in the number of factories across firms that aided dangerous working conditions in without inspection for years, leaving the structural, the country has outpaced infrastructure and the first place. Many international brands that fire and electrical conditions of most factories safety regulations, resulting in a number of high- outsource their manufacturing activities to unknown.

33 killed in factory fire; concerns raised over industrial safety in Bangladesh

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The MonthThat Was

our major terrorist attacks occurred in by the Islamic State.stFPakistan, in September. On September 1 two

attacks took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar which has claimed province. In one of the attacks a suicide bomber responsibility for the recent attacks has carried out blew himself at the entrance of Mardan's district five other major attacks in the country since last session's court. At least 13 people were killed and December. The group had, earlier, claimed 41 others were injured in the attack. The attack responsibility for the Easter Sunday bombing in a came just hours after gunmen stormed Peshawar's public park that killed 70 people in Lahore. It is a Christian Colony. Both the offensives came just a splinter group of the Pakistani Taliban movement day after the Director-General of Inter-Services that had also declared loyalty to the Islamic State Public Relations (ISPR) gave an exhaustive report but later switched back to the Taliban. In March, the on the progress made against militants in the group also claimed responsibility for the killing of country's northwestern region since the launch of two Pakistani employees of the U.S. Consulate in attacks and 32 percent decrease in the number of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2014. the northwestern city of Peshawar. The United casualties during the first eight months of 2016,

States has added the militant group to its list of compared to the corresponding period last year. In another suicide blast in Mohmand Agency of global terrorist organizations in August this year. The relative success of the National Action Plan

thFATA, on September 16 , at least 28 people were designed to counter terrorism has meant that the killed and 31 were injured. Around two hundred According to official document of National Counter terrorists are now carrying out scattered but more people had gathered for Friday prayers in the Terrorism Authority (NACTA) the law enforcement deadly attacks. Moreover, with the Islamic State mosque when the attack occurred. In another agencies killed 1,808 and arrested 5,611 terrorists looking to possibly expand its influence in the Indian incident, three army personnel were killed in the during various operations since approval of subcontinent, local militant outfits may carry out outskirts of Peshawar. While the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar National Action Plan in January 2015. The attacks in order to attract funds and support from claimed responsibility for all four attacks, the government claims that the country has witnessed the Middle-East based terror organization. attack on the Pakistani soldiers was also claimed a 58 percent decline in the number of terrorist

Four major terrorist attacks in the country leave nearly 44 dead; Jamaat-ul-Ahrar emerges as a major terrorist group

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Pakistan



pair of coordinated Taliban bombings Kabul are likely to continue in the coming months. Atargeting the Afghan Defense Ministry in a The group had announced in April the start of their crowded neighbourhood of Kabul, on September fighting season to take control of more territory and

th5 killed nearly 35 people and wounded dozens launch large-scale attacks against the Kabul including senior security officials. The bombings government and foreign forces. The renewed were the latest in a wave of attacks on government fighting also follows a year of faltering efforts to or Western targets in the capital since April this restart direct peace talks between the Taliban and year, including an attack on the American the National Unity government.University in August that killed 13 people.

ndMeanwhile, on September 22 the Afghanistan The repeated attacks by the Taliban on well- government signed a peace deal with the Hizb-e-protected targets at the heart of the capital city Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekematyar. The Hizb-e-have added to the pressure on the security forces. Islami Afghanistan (HIA) led by Hekematyar has, Afghanistan's Defence ministry has said that the since May, hinted at its willingness to sign a peace The peace deal with the HIA was delayed several security forces are currently waging operations in deal with the government following several rounds times in the past due to internal rivalries within the 15 provinces. Earlier in the month, the Taliban of negotiations. The peace agreement has paved Afghan government. The difference of opinion pushed into the capital of Afghanistan's southern the way for the group's commander Hekematyar to between President Ghani's camp and the Chief Uruzgan province, causing all government officials make a political comeback; despite allegations of Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah was the major to flee from the city. Tarinkot is the third Afghan war crime against him committed during the 1990's reason for the delay. The deal with the mostly provincial capital to come under Taliban threat in civil war. While the Afghanistan government has inactive HIA is more of a symbolic victory for recent months, along with the city of Kunduz in the called the agreement as a step towards peace, it is President Ashraf Ghani who has struggled to revive north and Lashkar Gah in Helmand province. likely to be criticized for opening the doors to one of peace talks with the more powerful Taliban fighters.

the most infamous figures in the country's civil war The Taliban attacks in the country particularly in to play a role in the nation's already divisive politics.

35 people killed in Taliban attack in Kabul; Peace deal signed with Gulbuddin Hekematyar, leader of Hizb-e-Islami

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Sri Lankan national, with suspected links with Though Maharashtra had never a strong base for Abanned terrorist organisation Liberation LTTE, the police are probing the purpose of LTTE's Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was detained by former operative in the state and the reason for his Indian intelligence and airport authorities for visit to Frankfurt. In March 2011, a Sri Lankan possessing a fake passport and visa documents in national with suspected links with LTTE was

stPune on September 1 . The detained individual arrested by officers of the Maharashtra Anti-was supposed to board a flight for Frankfurt, Terrorism Squad (ATS). In May 2013, Mumbai crime before he was picked up. Police have identified the branch had arrested a 35-year old Theva Satesh suspect as a native of Thirunelveli, a town in Jaffna Kumar, an electronics engineer from Sri Lanka and district, Sri Lanka. The immigration authorities an operative of LTTE, while he was planning to catch

arrests came after a group of men set upon Sri detained him for inquiry as his documents were a flight for Nairobi.Lanka's High Commissioner to Malaysia, Ibrahim found to be suspicious and then, handed him over Sahib Ansar, reportedly after he refused to divulge to the police. Meanwhile, police in Malaysia arrested five people details on the whereabouts of former Sri Lankan in connection with the assault on the Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa during the latter's The Sri Lankan embassy in Mumbai confirmed that envoy at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport

th recent visit to the country.Subbiah was a resident of Tiruvelli East, near (KLIA) on September 4 . The authorities obtained a Jaffna, and issued him a temporary passport as he three-day remand order for the men and are had lost the original one in Tamil Nadu. The investigating them under the Security Offences accused was sent back as senior police officials (Special Measures) Act (Sosma), a preventive decided not to register a complaint against him. detention law that was recently enacted to replace

the controversial Internal Security Act (ISA). The

Concerns over re-emergence of support for LTTE; suspect with LTTE links detained in India, while Sri Lankan envoy to Malaysia attacked

Sri Lanka



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he aftershocks of the 7.8 magnitude landslides. Successive governments in Nepal have Tearthquake that hit Nepal in 2015 have caused failed to come up with a foolproof disaster warning 4,312 landslides in the country since last year. The system despite the fact that the country is highly total loss and damage caused by these landslides is vulnerable to natural disasters including estimated to be around $7 billion. The landslide earthquakes, flooding and landslides. Most of the risk becomes particularly high during the major river bodies in the country lack strong and monsoon season. According to a study conducted durable embankments. by the University of Michigan, the highest landslide risk areas are concentrated in the four As many as 18,287 households in 14 districts are large river valleys, one of which contains the main living in areas under high landslide hazard risk. road from Nepal to China. Torrential rains that lead to landslides often cause

houses to be buried under rocks and mud. The lack According to geologists, the landslides due to the Landslides in Nepal not only result in loss of lives of communication facilities and remoteness of the aftershocks of the 2015 earthquake are likely to but also cause considerable damage to already locations make it difficult for the rescue teams to continue for some more time. This further increases inadequate infrastructure such as roads, reach the affected areas in time increasing the the need for rigorous risk assessment and close hydropower plants, irrigation and drinking water possibility of casualties. According to the Ministry of monitoring. The government can use the support of facilities. Landslides make it difficult to access Home Affairs, 102 people died between May to the several research groups that have visited the many remote regions of the country as falling August this year from landslides in 42 districts. country to study the changes in the landscape debris often block the roads. Man-made causes People continue to reside in these high risk areas, following the earthquake. The threat of glacial lake like the construction of roads in areas that are not with the local authorities turning a blind eye to the outburst in Tibet will further aggravate the risks of environment friendly also increases the risks of imminent risk and the need for relocation. floods and landslides in Nepal.

Landslides in various parts of the country causes damage to life andproperty

Nepal



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n August this year, it was reported that moves courts issued arrest warrants for Nasheed, Jameel Iare underway by opposition leaders in the and MDP senior official Akram Kamldeen, who are Maldives, including Mohammed Nasheed, former also in exile in the UK. Police also raided Nasheed's president and leader of Maldives Democratic house in the capital of Male. The crisis surrounding Party (MDP), to oust President Abdulla Yameen. Yameen has deepened in recent months, with rifts The apparent plot was being prepared amid an in the ruling Maldives Progressive Party (MPP). intensified campaign in the Western media to Yameen's half-brother and MPP President, highlight the Yameen government's anti- Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, recently opposed land democratic methods. As part of its crackdown on laws that allow foreign freehold ownership, the opposition, the Yameen government following criticism that the legislation will pave the instigated charges against Nasheed under anti- way for China to set up military bases. In addition,

member Majlis. In Maldives, political instability, terrorism laws for ordering, as President, the five rival opposition groups announced a united repression, massive corruption and the rise of detention of Criminal Court Justice Abdulla front to remove President Abdulla Yameen from Islamic extremism are serious challenges.Mohamed in 2012. Nasheed was jailed for 13 years office, urging supporters to bridge differences to

in March 2015. Under pressure from the US, UK restore democracy.Last year, India was alarmed at a new law pushed and EU, he was allowed to travel to Britain, through the Maldivian parliament that allowed ostensibly for medical treatment. Former President of the Maldives Mohammed Chinese companies and individuals to buy freehold Nasheed flew secretly to Sri Lanka in an apparent land in the atolls. The MDP had helped pass the Meanwhile, since Maithripala Sirisena was move to give shape to plans for unseating President legislation, saying a change in government in Male installed as president, the Sri Lanka government Abdullah Yameen. Sources said the plan being may not help address Indian concerns. Within the has reportedly played an increasingly active role discussed was impeachment of the President but it Indian government, it is believed that Nasheed may on Washington's behalf. It mediated Nasheed's is unclear if the move will garner the support of the serve Indian interests better than Yameen.release and his travel last year to the UK. Maldives' required number of parliamentarians in the 85-

Government crackdown on opposition continues; opposition leaders work to form a united front against President Yameen

Maldives



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September Events & Incidents

st§September 1 – Odisha:

st§September 1 – Odisha:

nd§September 2 – Andhra Pradesh:

rd§September 3 – Chhattisgarh:

rd§September 3 – Odisha:

rd§September 3 – Jharkhand:

th§September 4 – Bihar:

th§September 4 – Chhattisgarh:

Three suspected CPI-Maoist cadres were caught by villagers in Deogharandi village and handed them to police in Nabarangpur district.

Police recovered several posters put up by the CPI-Maoist in Jagdalpur village under Ambadala police limits in Rayagada district, exhorting public to oppose MNCs and protect their water, forest and land.

th A combined team of CRPF, CoBRA of 209 battalion and district police exchanged heavy firing with upto 150 cadres; all armed heavily including a top CPI-Maoist who sneaked into Garu after coming down from Andhra Pradesh in Latehar district.

Seventeen Naxal including two women cadres, surrendered in Bastar district.

Two cadres of the PLFI were killed by Rourkela Police following an exchange of fire in remote Jarda forest under Gurundia police limits in Sundargarh district.

Three cadres of LWE, Samrat Giroh, were killed in a fratricidal war with cadres of PLFI in Kashira village under Karra Police Station limits of Khunti district.

A squad of 30–35 Maoists, attacked the construction site of a private company near Paimar River on Kiul-Gaya section of the Eastern Railways in the Gaya district. They set ablaze equipment and made nearly a dozen employees captive and snatched all their mobile phones and robbed labourers of their money.

38 Maoists, including seven women cadres, surrendered in Narayanpur district.



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th§September 6 – Jharkhand:



th§September 8 – Telangana:

th§September 9 – West Bengal:



th§September 12 – Karnataka:

th§September 15 – Andhra Pradesh:



th§September 16 – West Bengal:

Maoist cadres put up a poster with threat messages at Dadhpa village under Kutumba Police Station in Aurangabad district for retaliation of police attack in July.

Two TPC cadres were killed in a rival war in Palamu district. The police recovered two bodies of the TPC cadres from Bhelwahi village of the district. TPC is a splinter group of the CPI-Maoist.

SFs defused a tiffin bomb recovered near Tongpal region in Bastar district. Police seized a huge consignment of explosives being smuggled from Jharkhand under Barachatti Police Station area in the Gaya district.

Medak district's Ordinance Factory Medak Defence Employees' Mutually Aided Cooperative Housing Society Limited president has alleged that he has been receiving threat calls from an associate of CPI-Maoist to vacate the premises.

The CRPF recovered a high–intensity landmine, possibly planted by CPI-Maoist cadres, from West Midnapore district. The first day of the statewide CPI-Maoist bandh was peaceful though hundreds of passengers and commuters were left stranded in

Ranchi, Khunti, Simdega, Gumla, West Singhbhum and other Maoist–hit districts. The inter–district buses remained off the roads and passengers in trouble. Two PLFI cadres were arrested from a house in Bero on the outskirts of Ranchi district. The Chikkamagaluru district police took into custody a suspected CPI-Maoist wanted in 24 cases registered in various police stations in

Chikkamagaluru and other districts. The CPI-Maoist have floated six new front organisations in Andhra Pradesh to infiltrate mass agitations like the one for capital area

farmers' rights and Bhogapuram land losers' issues, according to State and Central Intelligence agencies. A CoBRA trooper was injured during an encounter with CPI-Maoist in a dense forest of Sukma district. A powerful can-bomb was defused by a joint team of CRPF jawans and Bokaro Police at Barai Penk in Jhumra in Bokaro district. Two suspected CPI-Maoist cadres were arrested from the Arsha area in Purulia district.






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th§September 17 – Maharashtra:

th§September 18 – Maharashtra:

st§September 21 – Chhattisgarh:

th§September 27 – Odisha:


30-year-old youth shot to death by suspected Maoists in Vishunpur block in Gumla District, after dragging him to a kangaroo court at Kath Thokwa.

Police arrested action team 'commander' and local organization squad member of the CPI-Maoist, from his village Javeli in Raigarh district.

Maoists set ablaze forest office in Gadchiroli district charring all furniture and documents. A District Reserve Group (DRG) jawan was killed and two others injured in a fierce gun-battle with Naxals in the forests of Kondagaon

district. Koraput cops have put up posters in Lakshmipuram, Narayanapatna, Bandugaon and Paduva blocks detailing key AOB leaders who are

also operating in Koraput. Three villagers were killed and four others injured after PLFI members opened indiscriminate fired on a gram sabha meeting at

Raitodand in Khunti district.


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The MonthThat Was


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ast month several operations were carried out by the security forces in the Maoist-affected states of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha. LA large contingent of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Jharkhand Jaguar (JJ) and district police conducted an operation on September 25th to zero in on Maoist leaders in the bordering areas of Gumla, Latehar and Lohardaga districts. The security forces have been attempting to arrest zonal commanders, who are leading the Red squad and have made the forest region bordering with Latehar and Lohardaga districts their safe zone.

In another operation in Chhattisgarh, two suspected members of the outlawed Communist Party of India (Maoist) were gunned down in the Bastar region of thChhattisgarh on September 24 . The security forces were also able to recover explosives, detonators, pipe bombs, codex wire, backpacks, magazine pouch, battery and

wires from the spot of the gunfight.

th.Meanwhile, in Odisha, a female Maoist leader was killed in gunfire between the Special Operation Group and the Maoists in Kalahandi district on September 15 In

thresponse to the encounter, the Maoists released an audio tape calling for a bandh in Kalahandi and Rayagada districts on September 29 .

While the Maoist stronghold in the southern and northern parts of Odisha has considerably weakened, the Kalahandi-Rayagada axis has proved to be a challenge for the security forces. According to senior police officials of Odisha, the Maoists are trying to regain their influence in remote areas from Pottangi in Koraput district to Sundargarh district. The Odisha police had also recovered several posters last month suspected to be put by the Maoists in Rayagada district pressing the public to oppose multi-national companies and protect their forest resources.

The crackdowns upon the Maoist rebels are likely to continue in the coming months. Security forces are also increasing vigilance between the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh border areas. In the past, Maoists have retaliated with attacks on security camps and police vehicles in the aftermath of killing of their rebels and leaders.

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Afghanistan

Pakistan

India

Bangladesh

Nearly 13 Islamic State (IS) terrorists were killed during air raids in Afghanistan's eastern Nangarhar province. Gen. John Nicholson said that 12 top leaders of the IS in Afghanistan were killed this summer.

Law enforcement agencies arrested seven suspected terrorists belonging to IS and al Qaida who were hiding in a house in the Pak-Afghan border area in Chagai district. Arms, ammunition, hatred inciting material and suicide jackets were also recovered from them.

Punjab's CTD arrested four terrorists affiliated with Islamic State's terror network in Lahore. The arrested militants were planning to target government buildings and sensitive installations in Lahore.

Three army personnel were killed in the outskirts of Peshawar. While the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claimed responsibility for the attack, it was also claimed by the Islamic State.

Syed Mujahid, arrested in January from Bengaluru, allegedly for having links with IS was denied interim bail by a special court in Delhi, which said his liberty "shall impact the security of the State".

Islamic State (IS) Indian operations chief Shafi Armar, who is reportedly operating from Syria, is using at least 10 different names while luring local recruiters from India, especially from Hyderabad.

The military commander of Neo-Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), who gave arms training to the Holey Artisan and Sholakia attackers, was killed during a raid in Dhaka city's Mirpur area. Three policemen were injured. Police recovered a pistol from the spot.

Law enforcers claim to have dealt a severe blow to Neo-JMB (Islamic State's supporter in Bangladesh) over the last ten months by killing the group's leader Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury and 30 of its operatives.

Neo-JMB interim coordinator, Tanvir Qaderi, was killed and eight others including five policemen and three women members were injured during a police raid at a house in Lalbagh area of Dhaka.

India cautions its High Commission in Bangladesh over Islamic State. st

§ IS released a new video, in Bangla and Arabic, featuring Dhaka cafe attackers. The attackers justified the July 1 terror attack in Dhaka and criticised Bangladesh's democratic system and political leadership.

th§September 11 :

rd§September 23 :

th§September 9 :

th§September 16 :

th§September 16 :

th§September 27 :

th§September 28 :

nd§September 2 :

th§September 11 :

th§September 11 :

th§September 14 :

rdSeptember 23 :

Islamic State South Asia Tracker – September 2016

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Events

Analysis

Meanwhile, Islamic State has released a new video deadliest of these attacks was the one a Holey Security agencies in Bangladesh claim to have stfeaturing the five attackers of the Dhaka café. The Artisan Bakery in Dhaka on July 1 , which left 23 dealt Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh's (JMB)

stattackers justified the July 1 terror attack and people including 17 foreigners dead. However, the new faction (Neo-JMB) a severe body blow over criticised Bangladesh's democratic system and government continues to maintain its stand that the last ten months by killing the group's leader political leadership. In the 15-minute video there is no organisational base of IS in Bangladesh, Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury and 30 of its message released in Bangla and Arabic, the terrorist and that the attacks were carried out by a faction of operatives. Two other identified members of the group called on jihadis to launch armed attacks on banned militant group JMB. group died by their own hands – one in a suicide “atheists, apostates and crusaders” as revenge for mission and another while evading arrest. The the “persecution” of IS fighters in Iraq and Syria and police operation in Narayanganj killed Neo-JMB elsewhere. The five attackers also condemned coordinator and Gulshan attack mastermind

th Islamic scholars for stopping Muslims from joining Tamim Ahmed Chowdhury on August 27 , and the armed jihad of the IS. Tamim's second-in-command Zahidul lislam alias

ndMaj Murad in a Mirpur raid on September 2 . Law enforcers are now reportedly looking for Kashem, a former leader of the main JMB and former According to IS news agency Amaq, Neo-JMB's first principal of Okhabari Madrasa in Dinajpur, and attack was the killing of Italian citizen and NGO several other coordinators and top leaders of Neo- worker Cesare Tavella in Gulshan area of Dhaka on

thJMB including Nurul Islam Marjan. Security September 28 . Amaq has listed 26 operations rdagencies claim that they have also identified a carried out until August 23 , when a Hindu grocer

number of foreign and local financiers and survived a machete attack in Narsingdi. The supporters of the group.

Islamic State Report for Bangladesh

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26

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Events

Analysis

provided bomb-making documents to at least three Bangladesh, are part of the group's aspirations to be Islamic State (IS) Indian operations chief Shafi others, and was in touch with around 300 Indian global terror organisations. The group has not Armar, who is said to operating from Syria, has youths online between 2014 and 2016. managed to establish its stronghold in India, even used a combination of tactics to lure Indian youths

though there are been some arrests and reports of into the terrorist organisation's network, including Indians travelling to IS home grounds of Iraq and prospects of travelling to Syria, finances, mobile Syria. The group's attempts to recruit Indian Muslim phones, literature and religious guilt. In addition, As many as 20 people were arrested from youths, have largely been unsuccessful. However, Shafi Armar alias Shafi alias Yusuf al Hindi, a former Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Delhi the Indian security agencies are expected to resident of Bhatkal in Karnataka, is reportedly and other places in January this year for links to the continue to maintain a high degree of vigil about the using at least 10 different names while luring local IS. NIA investigations has revealed that many of group's activities, both online and offline. recruiters from India, especially from Hyderabad, these individuals were in contact with Shafi Armar, a

into activities of Islamic State, according to the former Indian Mujahideen (IM) operative who National Investigation Agency (NIA). claims to be the India media chief of the IS, via

secure online messaging platforms like Skype, The NIA made these findings during investigations Trillian, Surespot and Telegram. The India's security of various IS-related cases registered across India, agencies have been on alert for the activities of including at its regional center which is reported to Islamic State in India, since the terror group be Hyderabad. Shafi Armar made attempts to emerged on the world map in 2014. As the group substantially spread IS activities in India, and had suffers loses due to military operations in Iraq and roped in two Hyderabadi youths, Arshad Ali of Syria, it has looked to expand its operations on the Mehadipatnam and Kadir of Golconda, to Syria last global front. The attacks in Europe, USA and year. The NIA probe has also revealed that Armar

Islamic State Report for India

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Introduction

Background

Nadu, before joining the Bay of Bengal. The Cauvery's upper hilly catchment lies in Karnataka Normal life in Bengaluru was severely affected on

th and Kerala. It is influenced by the usually September 12 , after protesters targeted property dependable south-west monsoon during June to and vehicles of Tamil speaking people over the September. Its lower part lies in the plains of Tamil Cauvery river water dispute. Two persons were Nadu, served by the not-so-dependable north-east killed and another injured in police firing in the Monsoon during October to December.city. The protests and violence began after the

thSeptember 5 Supreme Court order to release

The dispute over sharing the river's water goes back 15,000 cusecs of Cauvery river water to Tamil thto the British era. In the middle of the 19 century, Nadu for a period of ten days. Subsequently, the

th the government of Mysore (as Karnataka was then apex court on September 12 modified its earlier called) wanted to build a number of new irrigation order, asking Karnataka to release a reduced projects. This caused anxiety to what was then the amount of 12,000 cusecs of Cauvery River water

th Madras Presidency, which was dependent on the per day to Tamil Nadu till September 20 . The reservoir at Kannambadi, and sought the consent of Cauvery for irrigation. After several rounds of amount was reduced in response to an urgent plea the Madras government under the 1892 discussions between the two and the government by Karnataka agreement. As the Madras government did not of India, an agreement was signed in 1892, which agree, it was referred to arbitration. The arbitration governed a number of interstate rivers. Another panel's award was not acceptable to the Madras agreement was signed in 1924, relating to the use, government and it appealed. When the The river Cauvery is the largest in southern India, distribution, and control of the Cauvery waters government of India did not intervene, moves were and begins near Mercara in the Coorg region at an specifically. The agreement was to be valid for 50 initiated that led to the signing of the 1924 elevation of 1,341 m (4400 ft) above sea level years and then it would be subject to a review. Agreement.towards the Western Ghats, taking an easterly

course through the states of Karnataka and Tamil In 1910, the government of Mysore proposed a

Cauvery Water Dispute – A Case Study

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Both agreements stated that existing irrigation available in Tamil Nadu's Mettur Reservoir in a year following which the SC directed the Centre to should not be impeded by the construction of new from June to May. constitute a tribunal and distribute the water works upstream, and downstream irrigation between states.should not be reduced. Furthermore, all works The Tribunal, in a unanimous decision, determined must in the planning stages be approved by the the total availability of water in the Cauvery basin at

thdownstream state government (i.e., Tamil Nadu in 740 TMC at the Lower Coleroon Anicut site, The situation got tense on September 5 , the day Cauvery's case). Karnataka did not implement including 14 TMC for environmental protection and the Supreme Court directed Karnataka to release these agreements. Instead, it formed four new seepage into the sea. The final award made an 15,000 cusecs of Cauvery water to neighbouring projects by constructing dams across the annual allocation of 419 TMC to Tamil Nadu in the Tamil Nadu. Sporadic protests had broken out in tributaries of Cauvery, without getting clearance entire Cauvery basin, 270 TMC to Karnataka, 30 various parts of the state. The threat of another from the central government, Planning TMC to Kerala, and 7 TMC to Puducherry. The bandh was imminent-the third in less than four Commission, and Central Water Commission. Tribunal also recommended setting up the Cauvery weeks. Farmer and pro-Kannada organisations

thManagement Board (CMB) to implement the announced the Karnataka Bandh on September 9 .Karnataka constructed four projects on and near Tribunal's decisions.the Cauvery: Harangi, Kabini, Hemavathi and Familiar with earlier instance of protests over Suvarnavathy. For these, Karnataka did not get the The river dispute has attracted some of the most Cauvery water, reinforcements were sought. 596 prior consent of the Tamil Nadu government. extreme protests and dharnas. In 1986, a farmer's known anti-social and trouble making elements Then, from 1974, Karnataka started diverting river association from Tanjavur, Tamil Nadu moved the were taken into preventive custody. 26 sensitive flows into the four new reservoirs. Unable to Supreme Court (SC) and demanded that a tribunal a r e a s w e r e i d e n t i f i e d a n d a d d i t i o n a l resolve the dispute, the Centre referred it to the be formed for the adjudication for the Cauvery reinforcements were in place. Petrol bunks were Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal (CWDT) in 1990. water dispute. In 1990, the SC heard the petitions by closed to ensure that vehicle rallies would exhaust The Tribunal directed Karnataka to ensure that the two states and asked them to complete their supply and not venture too far from base. 205,000 million cubic feet (TMC) of water was negotiations. However, the two failed to do so, Around 16,000 police were to patrol the streets of

Impact of recent protests


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thBengaluru-nearly 75 companies (80-120 people Police investigations pointed to spontaneous witnessed violent protests on September 12 each) from Central Armed Reserve, Karnataka violence rather than planned riots. following the SC order to release water to the State Reserve Police, Rapid Action Force, Central neighbouring state. Besides the 15,000 city Industrial Security Force. The city was turned into The Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve policemen, 30 platoons of Karnataka State Reserve a fortress with police presence felt in every road, Police Force (CRFP), Indo-Tibetan Border Force Police and CAR policemen, Quick Response Teams especially in the Central business district. (ITPF), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) and and home guards were put on the job to avert any

Rapid Action Force (RAF) were deployed. As the untoward incident.Later, following the Supreme Court verdict on violence escalated, many of them had to be

thSeptember 12 , spontaneous protests broke out in airlifted, in a first of its kind in the state. The protests Bengaluru that severely affected normal life in the also impacted operations of several organisations, The key problem of the Cauvery basin is the demand city. 159 vehicles, private and public, were gutted with several of them closing operations early to exceeds the availability of water. The Cauvery river in arson. At least 108 of these were six-wheelers, ensure employee safety. Transportation was drains an area of 81,155 sq.km, passing through the 25 were four-wheelers and 25 were two-wheelers, affected with only few buses and autorickshaws south Indian states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala while 111 vehicles suffered damages. Initially, operating, most of the private cabs stayed off the and the union territory of Puducherry. There is an authorities had spoken of only about 125 vehicles roads. immediate need that, the government develops a being torched or damaged. About 37 shops and transparent, participatory, democratic, and rule-houses were attacked and vandalized, while 49 In the latest hearing, SC directed Karnataka to based management of Cauvery river water to meet policemen and 17 civilians were hospitalized for release 6,000 cusecs of water to Tamil Nadu for the regional demand.

thinjuries in the violence. One person was killed in three more days, starting from September 27 . As a police firing and another fell to death from a three- precautionary measure, the city police, this time, Unfortunately, the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal storey building, while fleeing lathi-wielding mobilised the forces and deployed police at (CWDT) award of February 2007 is yet to be policemen. Police arrested 565 people in 193 cases sensitive areas. Security was tight in the north, west implemented; the Special Leave Petitions of registered so far in connection with the violence. and southern parts of Bengaluru, as these parts Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, admitted in the

Present Situation


Supreme Court, remain pending for over nine three days) would be adjusted against the total years now. The Supreme Court, in the meantime, release of water to the state. deals with the issue in ad hoc manner, as was apparent through its orders of September 5 and 12 of this year.

The Supreme Court is set to hear the case again on thOn September 19 , 2016, the Cauvery Supervisory thSeptember 30 , when it will give its verdict on the Committee recommended 3,000 cusecs of water

sharing of Cauvery water between the two states stbe released by Karnataka between September 21 and the way forward. If the verdict favours Tamil th– 30 . However, the Supreme Court instead Nadu, Bengaluru and most parts of Karnataka may th

directed Karnataka on September 20 to release thwitness protests similar to that on September 12 . 6,000 cusecs water till the next date of hearing,

Given that the dispute is a long-drawn one between thwhich was September 27 , 2016. The Karnataka

Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the possible impact of government instead, had an all-party meeting in §Organisations operating in the state will have to the agitation in the coming months could be: which it was unanimously decided to not release invoke business continuity to reduce the impact §Pro-Kannada organisations and farmers' unions water to Tamil Nadu and pass a resolution in the on their operations.may call for state-wide shutdown and stage state assembly to support it. On the next hearing, §On a long term, investment in the state may demonstrations and rallies across the state.Karnataka was ordered to release 6,000 cusecs of reduce due to perceived similar protests in the §Border between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka could thwater till the next date of hearing, September 30 . future.be closed and transportation severely affected. SC also clarified in the order that the water to be §Relationship between the two states could be §Anti-social elements could target Tamil residents given to Tamil Nadu (6,000 cusecs per day for next strained.and Tamil owned businesses in the state.

Possible Consequences


NaxalTracker

RegionalSnapshot

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The MonthThat Was


ExpertSpeak


Suseendran is an Analyst with MitKat Advisory Services' Information Services practice. Based out of Bengaluru, he holds a Masters' degree in Homeland Security from Gujarat Forensic Science University, Gujarat.

- Suseendran Pandian ,

MitKat Advisory Services

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