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Real Estate August 08, 2014 Puravankara Bloomberg: PVKP IN Reuters: PPRO.BO BUY Institutional Equities India Research RESULT REVIEW Recommendation CMP: Rs82 Target Price: Rs105 Previous Target Price: Rs130 Upside (%) 28% Stock Information Market Cap. (Rs bn / US$ mn) 19/316 52-week High/Low (Rs) 134/50 3m ADV (Rs mn /US$ mn) 47/0.8 Beta 1.1 Sensex/ Nifty 25,329/7,569 Share outstanding (mn) 237 Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M YTD Absolute (27.6) 16.2 31.3 0.9 Rel. to Sensex (26.9) 2.5 (2.6) (15.6) Performance Source: Bloomberg Earnings Revision (%) FY14E FY15E Sales 6.9% 0.0% EBITDA 22.1% 14.0% PAT 35.8% 23.6% Source: Karvy Institutional Research Analysts Contact Parikshit Kandpal 022 6184 4311 [email protected] 40 60 80 100 120 140 15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Sensex (LHS) Puravanakar (RHS) Land sale mask cost overruns Puravankara Projects Ltd. (PPL) 1QFY15 performance was dismal with suboptimal earnings quality. Cost overruns of Rs840mn in legacy projects raise doubts on margin recovery and come on top of Rs210mn escalation booked during 4QFY14. Whilst the debt has been under control, negatives of execution played spoilsport. Going forward, (i) traction on complete and nearing completion inventory of Rs13.5bn (ii) likely Rs4bn refund from APIC leading to BS deleveraging & (iii) pre-sales pick up on new launches (15.6mn sqft), remain key re-rating triggers. We maintain BUY stance with reduced NAV based target of Rs105/share. 1QFY15 performance masked by Kochi land sales During 4QFY14 PPLs, Sales, EBIDTA and net profit grew 25.1%, (14.3%), (14.5%) YoY respectively, ahead of our expectation by 19.0%, 8.7% & 31.3%. Cost overruns of Rs840mn impacted profitability. For 1QFY15, PPL recorded 0.66mn sqft of new sales at Rs4,955/sqft realization (a growth of 27% YoY). PPL has maintained 4mn sqft pre-sales guidance for FY15E with pre-sales value of Rs18bn. Collection guidance stacks up at Rs18bn. Debt stabilized, liquidation of ready inventory key trigger PPL net debt came in at ~Rs14.8bn (QoQ lower by Rs350mn) and Net D/E at 0.67x. Debt shall get reduced further once the APIC refund of Rs4bn materialize. Whilst the debt has been tackled to an extent, going forward the liquidation of ~Rs13.5bn completed and nearing completion inventory remains the key re-rating trigger. PPL expects to exit these project by over next 12M vs 10qtrs timeline at existing run-rate. Maintain BUY: NAV reduced to Rs105/share We cut our property price estimate by 5-10% across projects to factor in faster sales pace and increase our cost estimates owing to escalations. We cut our FY15E and FY16E EPS estimates by 35.8% and 23.6% respectively. We maintain BUY on PPL with a reduced target price of Rs105/share (Rs130/share earlier). Our valuation is based on 0.65x our end-FY15E NAV forecast. Key triggers: (i) strong launch pipeline; (ii) realization improvement due to change in product mix; and (iii) balance sheet de-leveraging. Key risks: (i) An oversupply may lead to a 8-10% real estate price; and (ii) Sustained liquidity tightening could increase borrowing costs by 150-200bps lowering our NAV by 7%. Key Financial - Consolidated Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Operating income 12,459 13,102 13,957 17,590 EBITDA 5,768 4,757 4,643 5,971 EBITDA (%) 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9 Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,599 2,541 EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.8 6.8 10.8 RoCE (%) 15.5 12.1 11.6 15.1 P/E (x) 7.2 12.2 12.1 7.6 Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
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Page 1: India Research - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2016-07-13 · overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity,

Real Estate August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Bloomberg: PVKP IN Reuters: PPRO.BO

BUY

Institutional Equities

India Research

RESULT REVIEW

Recommendation

CMP: Rs82

Target Price: Rs105

Previous Target Price: Rs130

Upside (%) 28%

Stock Information Market Cap. (Rs bn / US$ mn) 19/316

52-week High/Low (Rs) 134/50

3m ADV (Rs mn /US$ mn) 47/0.8

Beta 1.1

Sensex/ Nifty 25,329/7,569

Share outstanding (mn) 237

Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M YTD

Absolute (27.6) 16.2 31.3 0.9

Rel. to Sensex (26.9) 2.5 (2.6) (15.6)

Performance

Source: Bloomberg

Earnings Revision

(%) FY14E FY15E

Sales 6.9% 0.0%

EBITDA 22.1% 14.0%

PAT 35.8% 23.6%

Source: Karvy Institutional Research

Analysts Contact Parikshit Kandpal

022 6184 4311

[email protected]

40 60 80 100 120 140

15,000 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000

Au

g-1

3

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4

Sensex (LHS) Puravanakar (RHS)

Land sale mask cost overruns Puravankara Projects Ltd. (PPL) 1QFY15 performance was dismal with

suboptimal earnings quality. Cost overruns of Rs840mn in legacy projects

raise doubts on margin recovery and come on top of Rs210mn escalation

booked during 4QFY14. Whilst the debt has been under control, negatives

of execution played spoilsport. Going forward, (i) traction on complete and

nearing completion inventory of Rs13.5bn (ii) likely Rs4bn refund from

APIC – leading to BS deleveraging & (iii) pre-sales pick up on new

launches (15.6mn sqft), remain key re-rating triggers. We maintain BUY

stance with reduced NAV based target of Rs105/share.

1QFY15 performance masked by Kochi land sales

During 4QFY14 PPLs, Sales, EBIDTA and net profit grew 25.1%, (14.3%),

(14.5%) YoY respectively, ahead of our expectation by 19.0%, 8.7% & 31.3%.

Cost overruns of Rs840mn impacted profitability. For 1QFY15, PPL recorded

0.66mn sqft of new sales at Rs4,955/sqft realization (a growth of 27% YoY).

PPL has maintained 4mn sqft pre-sales guidance for FY15E with pre-sales

value of Rs18bn. Collection guidance stacks up at Rs18bn.

Debt stabilized, liquidation of ready inventory – key trigger PPL net debt came in at ~Rs14.8bn (QoQ lower by Rs350mn) and Net D/E at

0.67x. Debt shall get reduced further once the APIC refund of Rs4bn

materialize. Whilst the debt has been tackled to an extent, going forward the

liquidation of ~Rs13.5bn completed and nearing completion inventory

remains the key re-rating trigger. PPL expects to exit these project by over

next 12M vs 10qtrs timeline at existing run-rate.

Maintain BUY: NAV reduced to Rs105/share We cut our property price estimate by 5-10% across projects to factor in faster

sales pace and increase our cost estimates owing to escalations. We cut our

FY15E and FY16E EPS estimates by 35.8% and 23.6% respectively. We

maintain BUY on PPL with a reduced target price of Rs105/share

(Rs130/share earlier). Our valuation is based on 0.65x our end-FY15E NAV

forecast. Key triggers: (i) strong launch pipeline; (ii) realization improvement

due to change in product mix; and (iii) balance sheet de-leveraging. Key

risks: (i) An oversupply may lead to a 8-10% real estate price; and (ii)

Sustained liquidity tightening could increase borrowing costs by 150-200bps

lowering our NAV by 7%.

Key Financial - Consolidated

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E

Operating income 12,459 13,102 13,957 17,590

EBITDA 5,768 4,757 4,643 5,971

EBITDA (%) 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9

Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,599 2,541

EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.8 6.8 10.8

RoCE (%) 15.5 12.1 11.6 15.1

P/E (x) 7.2 12.2 12.1 7.6

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

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2

August 08, 2014

Puravankara

1QFY15 – Kochi land sales masks disappointing

performance

During 1QFY15 Puravankara Projects (PPL), Sales grew 25.1% YoY whilst

EBIDTA and Net Profit de-grew 14.3% & 14.5% respectively YoY. Revenue,

EBIDTA and Net Profit was ahead of our expectations by 19%, 8.7% & 31.3%.

Revenue outperformance came in on back of advance of Rs1615.6mn received

against sale proceeds of Kochi land to Sobha Developers. Adjusted for this the

Revenue stood at Rs3,001mn.

EBIDTA margins declined by 1363bps YoY resulting in EBIDTA de-growth of

14.3% YoY. This is largely attributable to Rs840mn of costs overruns in few

project under construction viz. Skywoods, Swan lake, Atria, Eternity etc. This

is in continuation of Rs210mn cost overruns provided during 4QFY14.

Adjusted for the Land sale proceeds (Rs1615.6mn) and land costs (Rs435mn)

the normalized EBIDTA margins came in at 6% (largely on account of

Rs840mn cost overruns). Adjusted for this the EBIDTA margins would have

come at 34.3% for the base business.

1QFY15 Net profit de-grew by 14.5% YoY largely in line with EBIDTA de-

growth. The Net profit was aided by Rs120mn of other income from sale of

investment in Keppel JV and lower tax rate.

During 1QFY15, PPL achieved pre-sales of 0.66mn sqft which is flat YoY and

translates into sale value of Rs3,270mn (Rs4,955/sqft realization, 27% YoY

growth).

PPL has maintained 4mn sqft of pre-sales guidance for FY15E for a sale value

of Rs18bn and collection guidance stands at Rs16bn (Rs18bn including land

and JV share sale proceeds), which looks quite aggressive. Interest cost came

down to 13.02%.

PPL 1QFY15, is the 3rd straight quarter of dismal performance and management

guidance on cost overruns has seen flip-flops in actual deliveries. Whilst 1QFY15

management commentary administered a higher dose of confidence on cost

overruns being largely behind, we would remain cautious. PPL expects pick up in

sales of ready and nearing ready inventory of Rs13.5bn from 2QFY15E with

complete exit in these project over next 4qtrs. This implies average 9% liquidation

of nearing completion inventory/quarter moving to 25% liquidation from

2QFY15E, which is again ambitious. On the face of it result was ahead of estimates

helped by land sales whilst on normalization this has been one of the worst

quarter for the Company. Customer collections stood at Rs2,940mn vs

Rs4,000mn/quarter guidance. With so many negatives fanning a de-rating fire the

only solace lies in any positive surprise on sales movement of the ‘ready’ and

‘nearing completion inventory’ of Rs13.5n and likely resolution with Telangana

Government on APIC land refunds of Rs4bn.

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August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Exhibit 1: Consolidated – 1QFY15 financial performance

Rs mn 1Q FY14 4Q FY14 1Q FY15 YoY % QoQ %

Net sales 3,690 3,748 4,616 25.1 23.2

Expenses 1,585 1,855 2,627 65.7 41.6

(Increase)/Dec in stock in trade (184) (640) (252)

Land Purchase Cost 198 410 781 294.0 90.3

Raw Material Exps 1,343 1,851 1,833 36.5 (0.9)

Production/Employee Expenses 228 234 265 16.4 13.1

SG&A 222 278 180 (18.8) (35.1)

Other expenses 283 526 438 54.4 (16.8)

EBITDA 1,599 1,089 1,371 (14.3) 25.9

EBITDA margin (%) 43.3 29.1 29.7 (1,363.5) 63.6

Depreciation 21 22 36

EBIT 1,578 1,068 1,335 (15.4) 25.1

Interest expense 564 654 620 10.0 (5.1)

Other income 3 1 120

Share of profit from associate 6 (11) (3)

Profit before tax 1,023 404 832 (18.7) 106.0

Tax- total 356 146 249 (30.0) 70.2

Rate of tax -total (%) 34.8 36.3 30.0 (484bps) (631bps)

Prior period item (15)

Net Profit 667 257 583 (12.7) 126.4

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Sales trend – has been muted The exhibits below reflect slower traction in sales volume/realization of

completed/nearing completion inventory as measured in terms of monetization -

9% during 1QFY15 (of Rs13.5bn outstanding inventory). PPL expects this to grow

to 25% monetization from 2QFY15E (post completion) which is aggressive.

Exhibit 2: Lower traction in completed and nearing completion inventory

Mn sqft 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15

Total - Completed & Nearing completion (Puravankara) 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.11

Total - Completed & Nearing completion (Provident) 0.11 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.13 0.1 0.06 0.05

Total - Completed & Nearing Completion 0.30 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.22 0.19 0.16

Total - Ongoing (Puravankara) 0.2 0.24 0.5 0.53 0.17 0.36 0.55 0.79 0.41

Total - Ongoing (Provident) 0.16 0.04 0.04 0.91 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.21 0.13

Total Ongoing 0.36 0.28 0.54 1.44 0.33 0.52 0.68 1.00 0.54

Total Gross area sold 0.66 0.66 0.90 1.82 0.66 0.81 0.90 1.19 0.70

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Exhibit 3: Realization trend – Ready inventory realization lower than Ongoing

Rs/Sqft 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15

Completed & Nearing completion (Puravankara) 3,947 4,250 4,394 4,526 3,909 4,331 3,708 5,000 5,455

Completed & Nearing completion (Provident) 3,064 2,559 2,653 2,526 3,091 2,938 3,030 3,667 3,400

Total - Completed & Nearing Completion 3,623 3,271 3,475 3,526 3,636 3,707 3,400 4,579 4,813

Realization - Ongoing (Puravankara) 4,575 4,054 4,544 5,094 4,706 5,289 5,078 5,215 5,463

Realization - Ongoing (Provident) 3,531 3,500 3,375 3,264 3,563 3,619 3,615 3,714 3,769

Total Ongoing 4,111 3,975 4,457 3,938 4,152 4,775 4,799 4,900 5,056

Net blended Realization - Adjusted for associates, JDA 3,894 3,575 4,074 3,842 3,894 4,368 4,476 4,777 4,955

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Page 4: India Research - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2016-07-13 · overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity,

4

August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Change in estimates

We have recalibrated our FY15E and FY16E estimates largely to reflect upon cost

overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity, Atria etc

to the extent of Rs840mn during 1QFY15 and likely spillover for rest of 9MFY15E.

We adopt a cautious stance on execution flip-flops and lower our EBIDTA margin

estimate for FY16E to factor the same. We have increased our depreciation & other

income estimate in line with 1QFY15. Our interest expense remain largely

unchanged as we expect net debt to stabilize at current levels of Rs14.8bn. We have

cut our net profit estimates for FY15E by 32.8% and FY16E by 19.3% to reflect these

negatives.

Exhibit 4: Change in Estimates

Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15E FY16E

Consolidated Old New Change % Old New Change % Comments

Revenue 14,996 13,957 (6.9) 17,590 17,590 -

We have cut our FY15E revenue estimates on

account of slower traction in ready & nearing

completion inventory

% growth 14.5 6.5

17.3 26.0

Operating expenditure 9,035 9,314 3.1 10,648 11,619 9.1

We increase the construction costs spends

owing to cost overruns of Rs840mn during

1QFY15. We adopt a cautious stance and

increase construction costs by 9.1% during

FY16E, in line with FY15E

EBITDA 5,961 4,643 (22.1) 6,942 5,971 (14.0)

EBIDTA Margin (%) 39.8 33.3 -648.8bps 39.5 33.9 -551.8bps EBIDTA margins contraction on high

construction costs estimates

Depreciation 117 156 33.3 134 151 12.5 Recalibration in line with 1QFY15

EBIT 5,844 4,487 (23.2) 6,808 5,820 (14.5)

Interest expenditure 2,117 2,118 0.0 1,812 1,814 0.0

Largely stable as debt levels may come off after

APIC land refunds of Rs4bn & likely traction

in the ready inventory sales

Other income 43 163.0 279 45 64.3 42.5

Increase in FY15E other income due to gain of

Rs120mn from investment sale proceeds in the

KEPPEL Joint Venture

PBT 3,770 2,532 (32.8) 5,041 4,070 (19.3)

Tax 1,282 861 (32.8) 1,714 1,384 (19.3)

PAT 2,488 1,671 (32.8) 3,327 2,686 (19.3)

Higher construction costs lead to net profit

recalibration lower by 32.8% and 19.3% during

FY15E & FY16E

PAT Margin (%) 16.6 12.0 -462.0bps 18.9 15.3 -364.1bps

Source: Company, Karvy Research Estimate

Page 5: India Research - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2016-07-13 · overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity,

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August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Investment Rationale

Strong competitive positioning As highlighted in the thematic section of the note, PPL is well positioned in the

Southern residential market on account of its superior land bank quality and

quantity, access to finance and healthy balance sheet. The micro factors are well

supported by conducive Southern markets which remain demand healthy and

affordable. We highlight our finding in exhibit 5 to arrive at overall competitive

positioning.

Exhibit 5: Overall competitive positioning of real estate developers

Macro

Competitive

- 30% weight

Business

Competitive -

25% weight

Land bank

& Pricing -

20% weight

Balance

Sheet

positioning -

25% weight

Overall Comments

Sobha

Sobha is the best positioned on strong balance sheet

positioning, high brand recall and superior land bank. We

rate it a top quartile

Prestige

Prestige Estates scores well on execution and brand recall. It

scores well on the JDA strategy of land acquisition. A Mid-

quartile in most of the parameters

Puravankara

A mid-quartile on all parameters. Expected deleveraging of

balance sheet through OFS route shall further strengthen

competitive positioning

Mantri

A mid-quartile with strong brand recall in southern markets

Brigade

Brigade seems middling

Source: Karvy Institutional Research; Note: Strong; Relatively Strong; Average; Relatively Weak Weak

On overall competitive positioning, we find that the top real estate players

include Sobha, Prestige & Puravankara in Southern markets. The right mix of

branding, execution capability, balance sheet strength and underlying business

fundamentals are the key influencers. Notwithstanding their scores differ on these

factors we see limited differentiation on an overall basis.

Page 6: India Research - Business Standardbsmedia.business-standard.com/_media/bs/data/market... · 2016-07-13 · overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity,

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August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Land bank high on quality and diversification

With 91mn sq ft of saleable area, PPL is the second largest Southern real estate

developer. Moreover, with the majority of its land bank in IT/ITES-centric

locations (Bangalore, Chennai and Kochi account for 86% of its land bank) and a

broader product portfolio of ‘mid income’ and ’affordable housing’, PPL is

competitively well placed amongst the real estate players.

Exhibit 6: IT/ITES locations drive NAV estimates

Location % land bank spread % NAV contribution

Bangalore 63.3 64.4

Chennai 12.8 13.1

Kochi 7.0 8.5

Total 83.0 86.0

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research Total Saleable area – 112mn sqft

Exhibit 7: Land bank positioning

Land bank

Pricing

attractiveness Overall Comments

Sobha

Largest land bank in amongst listed players and

attractive price positioning. Sobha is a top quartile

Prestige

A middling on land bank and top quartile on

pricing attractive. Overall a mid - quartile

Puravankara

A mid-quartile on land bank and pricing

attractive. Overall a mid - quartile

Mantri

A mid - Quartile

Brigade

A middling

Source: Karvy Institutional Research; Note: Strong; Relatively Strong; Average; Relatively Weak Weak

Puravankara is a mid-quartile in Southern realty macro-markets with well

positioned land bank and broad based presence in luxury & mid-income

housing segment. Real estate regulatory bill & LARR will impact the southern

developers positively as they exercise strong regulatory compliance besides

property price increases on account of LARR shall augur well for profitability

for developers with historical land banks.

Successful foray into affordable housing

During August 2008, PPL through its 100% subsidiary ‘Provident Housing’

announced its foray into affordable housing. Since then it has launched projects

with a total area under development of 12.7mn sq ft and delivered 4.5mn sqft in

Bangalore & Chennai. PPL is targeting 30-30% EBITDA margins under the

Provident brand (v/s 40-45% under `Purva’ brand) and aims to expand to other

cities with ~9.2mn sq ft of new launches planned over the next few quarters. This is

approximately ~59% of PPL’s total launch pipeline. PPL intends to take Provident

public over next few years.

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August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Valuation – NAV reduced to Rs105/share

We maintain our BUY rating on Puravankara Projects (PPL) with a reduced target

NAV based target price of Rs105/share (previous target of Rs130/share). We have

recalibrated our property prices by 5-10% across regions on account of

promotional discounts to gain sale traction for ready & nearing ready inventory

and new launches. Our valuation is based on 0.65x our end-FY15E NAV forecast

(see exhibit 8). Our NAV calculation is based on the following methodology:

We have divided PPL’s entire land bank into residential projects (based on the

information given by the company)

We have arrived at the sale price/sq ft and the anticipated sales volumes for

each project, based on our discussions with industry experts

We have deducted the cost of construction based on our assumed cost

estimates, which have been arrived at after discussions with industry experts

We have further deducted marketing and other costs that have been assumed

at 5% of sales revenue

We have then deducted income tax based on the tax applicable for the project

The resultant cash inflows at the project level have been discounted based on

WACC of 23% (cost of equity 30% based on beta of 3.5, cost of debt 15%,

debt/equity 0.6x). All the project level NAVs have then been summed up to

arrive at the GNAV of the company

From the GNAV, we have deducted the net debt as of FY15E to arrive at

RNAV

We give a 35% discount to RNAV to arrive at the final valuation of the

company.

Exhibit 8: NAV calculation

Rs mn

Old NAV

Rs mn

Revised NAV comments

Gross NAV 60,910 52,374 NAV based

Less Net debt 13,529 14,103 as on Mar-15E

RNAV 47,381 38,271

Shares outstanding (mn) 237 237 as on Mar-14 adjusted for

IPP dilution

RNAV/share 200 161

Discount to NAV 35% 35%

NAV/Share (Rs) 130 105

Source: Karvy Institutional Research

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August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Key valuation assumptions

In the exhibit 9 we highlight our sales and construction cost inflation assumptions.

We expect property price appreciation in line with WPI inflation i.e. 5%. We

forecast other costs including marketing, SGA and employee costs to be stable at

5% of sales.

Exhibit 9: Base case assumptions

Discount rate 23%

Annual rate of inflation-sales price 5

Annual rate of inflation-cost of construction 5

Other costs – marketing, SGA, employee cost (as % of sales) 5

Tax rate (%) 33

Source: Karvy Institutional Research

In exhibit 10 we highlight our sale price and construction cost forecasts. Our

pricing assumptions are moderate and at a 10-15% discount to the current

prevailing prices.

Exhibit 10: Base property price and construction cost assumptions

Location Saleable area Sale price Construction Cost

mn sq ft Rs/sq ft Rs/sq ft

Bangalore 76 5,000 2,000

Chennai 14 3,700 1,800

Kochi 11 3,600 1,800

Hyderabad 4 3,200 1,800

Colombo 1 4,000 2,200

Coimbatore 2 3,400 1,600

Mysore 1 3,600 1,800

Kolkata 1 3,500 1,800

Total 112

Source: Karvy Institutional Research

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Puravankara

Financials - Consolidated

Exhibit 11: Profit & loss

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E

Net sales 12,459 13,102 13,957 17,590

Growth (%) 53 5 7 26

EBITDA 5,768 4,757 4,643 5,971

EBITDA margin (%) 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9

Growth (%) 48 (18) (2) 29

Depreciation 70 85 156 151

EBIT 5,698 4,672 4,487 5,820

Net Interest 2,318 2,276 2,227 2,034

Other income 178 47 163 64

PBT 3,558 2,443 2,422 3,850

Taxes 1,124 843 824 1,309

Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,599 2,541

Margin (%) 19.5 12.2 11.5 14.4

EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Exhibit 12: Balance Sheet

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Share capital 1,067 1,186 1,186 1,186

Reserves & surplus 17,928 20,984 22,042 23,835

Networth 18,995 22,170 23,228 25,021

Debt 17,859 16,359 15,559 13,609

Deferred tax liab. (2) (2) (2) (2)

Sources of funds 36,853 38,527 38,786 38,628

Net block 869 934 898 863

Investments 1,442 1,442 1,442 1,442

Properties held for dev. 7,977 7,757 7,425 6,579

Current assets 30,410 36,016 42,446 46,829

Inventory 389 409 429 451

Sundry debtors 3,073 3,009 3,445 4,340

Cash & bank balance 2,334 246 1,456 552

Other current assets 20,787 28,252 32,842 37,341

Loans & advances 2,801 3,051 3,201 3,050

Other assets 1,027 1,049 1,072 1,096

Current liabilities & provisions 3,845 7,621 13,426 17,085

Net current assets 26,565 28,394 29,020 29,745

Application of funds 36,853 38,527 38,786 38,628

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

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10

August 08, 2014

Puravankara

Exhibit 13: Cash flow statement

Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E

Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,613 2,556

Depreciation/amortisation 70 85 156 151

Interest 2,403 2,276 2,234 2,042

Change in NWC -8,518 -3,917 585 -1,629

Net cash from operations (a) -3,610 43 4,588 3,120

(Inc)/dec in investments -209 0 0 0

Capex -213 -150 -120 -116

Others 455 220 332 847

Cash flow from inv. (b) 33 70 212 731

FCF (a+b) -3,576 113 4,800 3,850

Inc/(dec) in capital (0) 1,922 - -

Inc/dec in loans 7,894 (1,500) (800) (1,950)

Others (312) (347) (555) (763)

Interest Paid (2,403) (2,276) (2,234) (2,042)

Financial cash flow ( c ) 5,179 -2,201 -3,589 -4,755

Net inc/dec in cash (a+b+c) 1,602 -2,088 1,211 -904

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Exhibit 14: Key Ratios

Y/E Mar (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

EBIDTA margin 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9

EBIT margin 45.7 35.7 32.1 33.1

Net profit margin 19.5 12.2 11.5 14.4

Return on capital employed 15.5 12.1 11.6 15.1

Return on equity 12.8 7.2 6.9 10.2

Dividend payout ratio 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3

Current ratio (x) 7.9 4.7 3.2 2.7

Net debt/ Equity (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

Exhibit 15: Valuation Parameters

Y/E Mar (x) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8

Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8

Book value per share 89 93 98 106

P/E (x) 7.2 12.2 12.1 7.6

P/BV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 7.5 7.2 5.4

EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.8

Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research

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Institutional Equities Team Rahul Sharma

Head – Institutional Equities /

Research / Pharma +91-22 61844310/01 [email protected]

Gurdarshan Singh Kharbanda Head - Sales-Trading +91-22 61844368/69 [email protected]

INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

Analysts Industry / Sector Desk Phone Email ID

Mitul Shah Automobiles/Auto Ancillary +91-22 61844312 [email protected]

Parikshit Kandpal Infra / Real Estate / Strategy/Consumer +91-22 61844311 [email protected]

Rajesh Kumar Ravi Cement/ Logistics/ Paints +91-22 61844313 [email protected]

Rupesh Sankhe Power/Capital Goods +91-22 61844315 [email protected]

Asutosh Mishra Banking & Finance +91-22-61844329 [email protected]

Vinesh Vala Research Associate +91 22 61844325 [email protected]

Rajesh Mudaliar Research Associate +91 22 61844322 [email protected]

INSTITUTIONAL SALES

Celine Dsouza Sales +91 22 61844341 [email protected]

Edelbert Dcosta Sales +91 22 61844344 [email protected]

INSTITUTIONAL SALES TRADING & DEALING

Aashish Parekh Institutional Sales/Trading/ Dealing +91-22 61844361 [email protected]

Prashant Oza Institutional Sales/Trading/ Dealing +91-22 61844370 /71 [email protected]

Pratik Sanghvi Institutional Dealing +91-22 61844366 /67 [email protected]

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For further enquiries please contact:

[email protected]

Tel: +91-22-6184 4300

Disclosures Appendix

Analyst certification

The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed

herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of

his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views

contained in this research report.

Disclaimer

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contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for

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loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all

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