Real Estate August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Bloomberg: PVKP IN Reuters: PPRO.BO
BUY
Institutional Equities
India Research
RESULT REVIEW
Recommendation
CMP: Rs82
Target Price: Rs105
Previous Target Price: Rs130
Upside (%) 28%
Stock Information Market Cap. (Rs bn / US$ mn) 19/316
52-week High/Low (Rs) 134/50
3m ADV (Rs mn /US$ mn) 47/0.8
Beta 1.1
Sensex/ Nifty 25,329/7,569
Share outstanding (mn) 237
Stock Performance (%) 1M 3M 12M YTD
Absolute (27.6) 16.2 31.3 0.9
Rel. to Sensex (26.9) 2.5 (2.6) (15.6)
Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Earnings Revision
(%) FY14E FY15E
Sales 6.9% 0.0%
EBITDA 22.1% 14.0%
PAT 35.8% 23.6%
Source: Karvy Institutional Research
Analysts Contact Parikshit Kandpal
022 6184 4311
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Sensex (LHS) Puravanakar (RHS)
Land sale mask cost overruns Puravankara Projects Ltd. (PPL) 1QFY15 performance was dismal with
suboptimal earnings quality. Cost overruns of Rs840mn in legacy projects
raise doubts on margin recovery and come on top of Rs210mn escalation
booked during 4QFY14. Whilst the debt has been under control, negatives
of execution played spoilsport. Going forward, (i) traction on complete and
nearing completion inventory of Rs13.5bn (ii) likely Rs4bn refund from
APIC – leading to BS deleveraging & (iii) pre-sales pick up on new
launches (15.6mn sqft), remain key re-rating triggers. We maintain BUY
stance with reduced NAV based target of Rs105/share.
1QFY15 performance masked by Kochi land sales
During 4QFY14 PPLs, Sales, EBIDTA and net profit grew 25.1%, (14.3%),
(14.5%) YoY respectively, ahead of our expectation by 19.0%, 8.7% & 31.3%.
Cost overruns of Rs840mn impacted profitability. For 1QFY15, PPL recorded
0.66mn sqft of new sales at Rs4,955/sqft realization (a growth of 27% YoY).
PPL has maintained 4mn sqft pre-sales guidance for FY15E with pre-sales
value of Rs18bn. Collection guidance stacks up at Rs18bn.
Debt stabilized, liquidation of ready inventory – key trigger PPL net debt came in at ~Rs14.8bn (QoQ lower by Rs350mn) and Net D/E at
0.67x. Debt shall get reduced further once the APIC refund of Rs4bn
materialize. Whilst the debt has been tackled to an extent, going forward the
liquidation of ~Rs13.5bn completed and nearing completion inventory
remains the key re-rating trigger. PPL expects to exit these project by over
next 12M vs 10qtrs timeline at existing run-rate.
Maintain BUY: NAV reduced to Rs105/share We cut our property price estimate by 5-10% across projects to factor in faster
sales pace and increase our cost estimates owing to escalations. We cut our
FY15E and FY16E EPS estimates by 35.8% and 23.6% respectively. We
maintain BUY on PPL with a reduced target price of Rs105/share
(Rs130/share earlier). Our valuation is based on 0.65x our end-FY15E NAV
forecast. Key triggers: (i) strong launch pipeline; (ii) realization improvement
due to change in product mix; and (iii) balance sheet de-leveraging. Key
risks: (i) An oversupply may lead to a 8-10% real estate price; and (ii)
Sustained liquidity tightening could increase borrowing costs by 150-200bps
lowering our NAV by 7%.
Key Financial - Consolidated
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Operating income 12,459 13,102 13,957 17,590
EBITDA 5,768 4,757 4,643 5,971
EBITDA (%) 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9
Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,599 2,541
EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.8 6.8 10.8
RoCE (%) 15.5 12.1 11.6 15.1
P/E (x) 7.2 12.2 12.1 7.6
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
1QFY15 – Kochi land sales masks disappointing
performance
During 1QFY15 Puravankara Projects (PPL), Sales grew 25.1% YoY whilst
EBIDTA and Net Profit de-grew 14.3% & 14.5% respectively YoY. Revenue,
EBIDTA and Net Profit was ahead of our expectations by 19%, 8.7% & 31.3%.
Revenue outperformance came in on back of advance of Rs1615.6mn received
against sale proceeds of Kochi land to Sobha Developers. Adjusted for this the
Revenue stood at Rs3,001mn.
EBIDTA margins declined by 1363bps YoY resulting in EBIDTA de-growth of
14.3% YoY. This is largely attributable to Rs840mn of costs overruns in few
project under construction viz. Skywoods, Swan lake, Atria, Eternity etc. This
is in continuation of Rs210mn cost overruns provided during 4QFY14.
Adjusted for the Land sale proceeds (Rs1615.6mn) and land costs (Rs435mn)
the normalized EBIDTA margins came in at 6% (largely on account of
Rs840mn cost overruns). Adjusted for this the EBIDTA margins would have
come at 34.3% for the base business.
1QFY15 Net profit de-grew by 14.5% YoY largely in line with EBIDTA de-
growth. The Net profit was aided by Rs120mn of other income from sale of
investment in Keppel JV and lower tax rate.
During 1QFY15, PPL achieved pre-sales of 0.66mn sqft which is flat YoY and
translates into sale value of Rs3,270mn (Rs4,955/sqft realization, 27% YoY
growth).
PPL has maintained 4mn sqft of pre-sales guidance for FY15E for a sale value
of Rs18bn and collection guidance stands at Rs16bn (Rs18bn including land
and JV share sale proceeds), which looks quite aggressive. Interest cost came
down to 13.02%.
PPL 1QFY15, is the 3rd straight quarter of dismal performance and management
guidance on cost overruns has seen flip-flops in actual deliveries. Whilst 1QFY15
management commentary administered a higher dose of confidence on cost
overruns being largely behind, we would remain cautious. PPL expects pick up in
sales of ready and nearing ready inventory of Rs13.5bn from 2QFY15E with
complete exit in these project over next 4qtrs. This implies average 9% liquidation
of nearing completion inventory/quarter moving to 25% liquidation from
2QFY15E, which is again ambitious. On the face of it result was ahead of estimates
helped by land sales whilst on normalization this has been one of the worst
quarter for the Company. Customer collections stood at Rs2,940mn vs
Rs4,000mn/quarter guidance. With so many negatives fanning a de-rating fire the
only solace lies in any positive surprise on sales movement of the ‘ready’ and
‘nearing completion inventory’ of Rs13.5n and likely resolution with Telangana
Government on APIC land refunds of Rs4bn.
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Exhibit 1: Consolidated – 1QFY15 financial performance
Rs mn 1Q FY14 4Q FY14 1Q FY15 YoY % QoQ %
Net sales 3,690 3,748 4,616 25.1 23.2
Expenses 1,585 1,855 2,627 65.7 41.6
(Increase)/Dec in stock in trade (184) (640) (252)
Land Purchase Cost 198 410 781 294.0 90.3
Raw Material Exps 1,343 1,851 1,833 36.5 (0.9)
Production/Employee Expenses 228 234 265 16.4 13.1
SG&A 222 278 180 (18.8) (35.1)
Other expenses 283 526 438 54.4 (16.8)
EBITDA 1,599 1,089 1,371 (14.3) 25.9
EBITDA margin (%) 43.3 29.1 29.7 (1,363.5) 63.6
Depreciation 21 22 36
EBIT 1,578 1,068 1,335 (15.4) 25.1
Interest expense 564 654 620 10.0 (5.1)
Other income 3 1 120
Share of profit from associate 6 (11) (3)
Profit before tax 1,023 404 832 (18.7) 106.0
Tax- total 356 146 249 (30.0) 70.2
Rate of tax -total (%) 34.8 36.3 30.0 (484bps) (631bps)
Prior period item (15)
Net Profit 667 257 583 (12.7) 126.4
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Sales trend – has been muted The exhibits below reflect slower traction in sales volume/realization of
completed/nearing completion inventory as measured in terms of monetization -
9% during 1QFY15 (of Rs13.5bn outstanding inventory). PPL expects this to grow
to 25% monetization from 2QFY15E (post completion) which is aggressive.
Exhibit 2: Lower traction in completed and nearing completion inventory
Mn sqft 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15
Total - Completed & Nearing completion (Puravankara) 0.19 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.11
Total - Completed & Nearing completion (Provident) 0.11 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.13 0.1 0.06 0.05
Total - Completed & Nearing Completion 0.30 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.33 0.29 0.22 0.19 0.16
Total - Ongoing (Puravankara) 0.2 0.24 0.5 0.53 0.17 0.36 0.55 0.79 0.41
Total - Ongoing (Provident) 0.16 0.04 0.04 0.91 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.21 0.13
Total Ongoing 0.36 0.28 0.54 1.44 0.33 0.52 0.68 1.00 0.54
Total Gross area sold 0.66 0.66 0.90 1.82 0.66 0.81 0.90 1.19 0.70
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 3: Realization trend – Ready inventory realization lower than Ongoing
Rs/Sqft 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15
Completed & Nearing completion (Puravankara) 3,947 4,250 4,394 4,526 3,909 4,331 3,708 5,000 5,455
Completed & Nearing completion (Provident) 3,064 2,559 2,653 2,526 3,091 2,938 3,030 3,667 3,400
Total - Completed & Nearing Completion 3,623 3,271 3,475 3,526 3,636 3,707 3,400 4,579 4,813
Realization - Ongoing (Puravankara) 4,575 4,054 4,544 5,094 4,706 5,289 5,078 5,215 5,463
Realization - Ongoing (Provident) 3,531 3,500 3,375 3,264 3,563 3,619 3,615 3,714 3,769
Total Ongoing 4,111 3,975 4,457 3,938 4,152 4,775 4,799 4,900 5,056
Net blended Realization - Adjusted for associates, JDA 3,894 3,575 4,074 3,842 3,894 4,368 4,476 4,777 4,955
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Change in estimates
We have recalibrated our FY15E and FY16E estimates largely to reflect upon cost
overruns in the legacy projects viz. Purva Skywood, Swan Lake, Eternity, Atria etc
to the extent of Rs840mn during 1QFY15 and likely spillover for rest of 9MFY15E.
We adopt a cautious stance on execution flip-flops and lower our EBIDTA margin
estimate for FY16E to factor the same. We have increased our depreciation & other
income estimate in line with 1QFY15. Our interest expense remain largely
unchanged as we expect net debt to stabilize at current levels of Rs14.8bn. We have
cut our net profit estimates for FY15E by 32.8% and FY16E by 19.3% to reflect these
negatives.
Exhibit 4: Change in Estimates
Y/E March (Rs mn) FY15E FY16E
Consolidated Old New Change % Old New Change % Comments
Revenue 14,996 13,957 (6.9) 17,590 17,590 -
We have cut our FY15E revenue estimates on
account of slower traction in ready & nearing
completion inventory
% growth 14.5 6.5
17.3 26.0
Operating expenditure 9,035 9,314 3.1 10,648 11,619 9.1
We increase the construction costs spends
owing to cost overruns of Rs840mn during
1QFY15. We adopt a cautious stance and
increase construction costs by 9.1% during
FY16E, in line with FY15E
EBITDA 5,961 4,643 (22.1) 6,942 5,971 (14.0)
EBIDTA Margin (%) 39.8 33.3 -648.8bps 39.5 33.9 -551.8bps EBIDTA margins contraction on high
construction costs estimates
Depreciation 117 156 33.3 134 151 12.5 Recalibration in line with 1QFY15
EBIT 5,844 4,487 (23.2) 6,808 5,820 (14.5)
Interest expenditure 2,117 2,118 0.0 1,812 1,814 0.0
Largely stable as debt levels may come off after
APIC land refunds of Rs4bn & likely traction
in the ready inventory sales
Other income 43 163.0 279 45 64.3 42.5
Increase in FY15E other income due to gain of
Rs120mn from investment sale proceeds in the
KEPPEL Joint Venture
PBT 3,770 2,532 (32.8) 5,041 4,070 (19.3)
Tax 1,282 861 (32.8) 1,714 1,384 (19.3)
PAT 2,488 1,671 (32.8) 3,327 2,686 (19.3)
Higher construction costs lead to net profit
recalibration lower by 32.8% and 19.3% during
FY15E & FY16E
PAT Margin (%) 16.6 12.0 -462.0bps 18.9 15.3 -364.1bps
Source: Company, Karvy Research Estimate
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Investment Rationale
Strong competitive positioning As highlighted in the thematic section of the note, PPL is well positioned in the
Southern residential market on account of its superior land bank quality and
quantity, access to finance and healthy balance sheet. The micro factors are well
supported by conducive Southern markets which remain demand healthy and
affordable. We highlight our finding in exhibit 5 to arrive at overall competitive
positioning.
Exhibit 5: Overall competitive positioning of real estate developers
Macro
Competitive
- 30% weight
Business
Competitive -
25% weight
Land bank
& Pricing -
20% weight
Balance
Sheet
positioning -
25% weight
Overall Comments
Sobha
Sobha is the best positioned on strong balance sheet
positioning, high brand recall and superior land bank. We
rate it a top quartile
Prestige
Prestige Estates scores well on execution and brand recall. It
scores well on the JDA strategy of land acquisition. A Mid-
quartile in most of the parameters
Puravankara
A mid-quartile on all parameters. Expected deleveraging of
balance sheet through OFS route shall further strengthen
competitive positioning
Mantri
A mid-quartile with strong brand recall in southern markets
Brigade
Brigade seems middling
Source: Karvy Institutional Research; Note: Strong; Relatively Strong; Average; Relatively Weak Weak
On overall competitive positioning, we find that the top real estate players
include Sobha, Prestige & Puravankara in Southern markets. The right mix of
branding, execution capability, balance sheet strength and underlying business
fundamentals are the key influencers. Notwithstanding their scores differ on these
factors we see limited differentiation on an overall basis.
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Land bank high on quality and diversification
With 91mn sq ft of saleable area, PPL is the second largest Southern real estate
developer. Moreover, with the majority of its land bank in IT/ITES-centric
locations (Bangalore, Chennai and Kochi account for 86% of its land bank) and a
broader product portfolio of ‘mid income’ and ’affordable housing’, PPL is
competitively well placed amongst the real estate players.
Exhibit 6: IT/ITES locations drive NAV estimates
Location % land bank spread % NAV contribution
Bangalore 63.3 64.4
Chennai 12.8 13.1
Kochi 7.0 8.5
Total 83.0 86.0
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research Total Saleable area – 112mn sqft
Exhibit 7: Land bank positioning
Land bank
Pricing
attractiveness Overall Comments
Sobha
Largest land bank in amongst listed players and
attractive price positioning. Sobha is a top quartile
Prestige
A middling on land bank and top quartile on
pricing attractive. Overall a mid - quartile
Puravankara
A mid-quartile on land bank and pricing
attractive. Overall a mid - quartile
Mantri
A mid - Quartile
Brigade
A middling
Source: Karvy Institutional Research; Note: Strong; Relatively Strong; Average; Relatively Weak Weak
Puravankara is a mid-quartile in Southern realty macro-markets with well
positioned land bank and broad based presence in luxury & mid-income
housing segment. Real estate regulatory bill & LARR will impact the southern
developers positively as they exercise strong regulatory compliance besides
property price increases on account of LARR shall augur well for profitability
for developers with historical land banks.
Successful foray into affordable housing
During August 2008, PPL through its 100% subsidiary ‘Provident Housing’
announced its foray into affordable housing. Since then it has launched projects
with a total area under development of 12.7mn sq ft and delivered 4.5mn sqft in
Bangalore & Chennai. PPL is targeting 30-30% EBITDA margins under the
Provident brand (v/s 40-45% under `Purva’ brand) and aims to expand to other
cities with ~9.2mn sq ft of new launches planned over the next few quarters. This is
approximately ~59% of PPL’s total launch pipeline. PPL intends to take Provident
public over next few years.
7
August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Valuation – NAV reduced to Rs105/share
We maintain our BUY rating on Puravankara Projects (PPL) with a reduced target
NAV based target price of Rs105/share (previous target of Rs130/share). We have
recalibrated our property prices by 5-10% across regions on account of
promotional discounts to gain sale traction for ready & nearing ready inventory
and new launches. Our valuation is based on 0.65x our end-FY15E NAV forecast
(see exhibit 8). Our NAV calculation is based on the following methodology:
We have divided PPL’s entire land bank into residential projects (based on the
information given by the company)
We have arrived at the sale price/sq ft and the anticipated sales volumes for
each project, based on our discussions with industry experts
We have deducted the cost of construction based on our assumed cost
estimates, which have been arrived at after discussions with industry experts
We have further deducted marketing and other costs that have been assumed
at 5% of sales revenue
We have then deducted income tax based on the tax applicable for the project
The resultant cash inflows at the project level have been discounted based on
WACC of 23% (cost of equity 30% based on beta of 3.5, cost of debt 15%,
debt/equity 0.6x). All the project level NAVs have then been summed up to
arrive at the GNAV of the company
From the GNAV, we have deducted the net debt as of FY15E to arrive at
RNAV
We give a 35% discount to RNAV to arrive at the final valuation of the
company.
Exhibit 8: NAV calculation
Rs mn
Old NAV
Rs mn
Revised NAV comments
Gross NAV 60,910 52,374 NAV based
Less Net debt 13,529 14,103 as on Mar-15E
RNAV 47,381 38,271
Shares outstanding (mn) 237 237 as on Mar-14 adjusted for
IPP dilution
RNAV/share 200 161
Discount to NAV 35% 35%
NAV/Share (Rs) 130 105
Source: Karvy Institutional Research
8
August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Key valuation assumptions
In the exhibit 9 we highlight our sales and construction cost inflation assumptions.
We expect property price appreciation in line with WPI inflation i.e. 5%. We
forecast other costs including marketing, SGA and employee costs to be stable at
5% of sales.
Exhibit 9: Base case assumptions
Discount rate 23%
Annual rate of inflation-sales price 5
Annual rate of inflation-cost of construction 5
Other costs – marketing, SGA, employee cost (as % of sales) 5
Tax rate (%) 33
Source: Karvy Institutional Research
In exhibit 10 we highlight our sale price and construction cost forecasts. Our
pricing assumptions are moderate and at a 10-15% discount to the current
prevailing prices.
Exhibit 10: Base property price and construction cost assumptions
Location Saleable area Sale price Construction Cost
mn sq ft Rs/sq ft Rs/sq ft
Bangalore 76 5,000 2,000
Chennai 14 3,700 1,800
Kochi 11 3,600 1,800
Hyderabad 4 3,200 1,800
Colombo 1 4,000 2,200
Coimbatore 2 3,400 1,600
Mysore 1 3,600 1,800
Kolkata 1 3,500 1,800
Total 112
Source: Karvy Institutional Research
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Financials - Consolidated
Exhibit 11: Profit & loss
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Net sales 12,459 13,102 13,957 17,590
Growth (%) 53 5 7 26
EBITDA 5,768 4,757 4,643 5,971
EBITDA margin (%) 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9
Growth (%) 48 (18) (2) 29
Depreciation 70 85 156 151
EBIT 5,698 4,672 4,487 5,820
Net Interest 2,318 2,276 2,227 2,034
Other income 178 47 163 64
PBT 3,558 2,443 2,422 3,850
Taxes 1,124 843 824 1,309
Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,599 2,541
Margin (%) 19.5 12.2 11.5 14.4
EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 12: Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
Share capital 1,067 1,186 1,186 1,186
Reserves & surplus 17,928 20,984 22,042 23,835
Networth 18,995 22,170 23,228 25,021
Debt 17,859 16,359 15,559 13,609
Deferred tax liab. (2) (2) (2) (2)
Sources of funds 36,853 38,527 38,786 38,628
Net block 869 934 898 863
Investments 1,442 1,442 1,442 1,442
Properties held for dev. 7,977 7,757 7,425 6,579
Current assets 30,410 36,016 42,446 46,829
Inventory 389 409 429 451
Sundry debtors 3,073 3,009 3,445 4,340
Cash & bank balance 2,334 246 1,456 552
Other current assets 20,787 28,252 32,842 37,341
Loans & advances 2,801 3,051 3,201 3,050
Other assets 1,027 1,049 1,072 1,096
Current liabilities & provisions 3,845 7,621 13,426 17,085
Net current assets 26,565 28,394 29,020 29,745
Application of funds 36,853 38,527 38,786 38,628
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
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August 08, 2014
Puravankara
Exhibit 13: Cash flow statement
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Net profit 2,434 1,600 1,613 2,556
Depreciation/amortisation 70 85 156 151
Interest 2,403 2,276 2,234 2,042
Change in NWC -8,518 -3,917 585 -1,629
Net cash from operations (a) -3,610 43 4,588 3,120
(Inc)/dec in investments -209 0 0 0
Capex -213 -150 -120 -116
Others 455 220 332 847
Cash flow from inv. (b) 33 70 212 731
FCF (a+b) -3,576 113 4,800 3,850
Inc/(dec) in capital (0) 1,922 - -
Inc/dec in loans 7,894 (1,500) (800) (1,950)
Others (312) (347) (555) (763)
Interest Paid (2,403) (2,276) (2,234) (2,042)
Financial cash flow ( c ) 5,179 -2,201 -3,589 -4,755
Net inc/dec in cash (a+b+c) 1,602 -2,088 1,211 -904
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 14: Key Ratios
Y/E Mar (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
EBIDTA margin 46.3 36.3 33.3 33.9
EBIT margin 45.7 35.7 32.1 33.1
Net profit margin 19.5 12.2 11.5 14.4
Return on capital employed 15.5 12.1 11.6 15.1
Return on equity 12.8 7.2 6.9 10.2
Dividend payout ratio 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Current ratio (x) 7.9 4.7 3.2 2.7
Net debt/ Equity (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Exhibit 15: Valuation Parameters
Y/E Mar (x) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8
Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.4 6.7 6.8 10.8
Book value per share 89 93 98 106
P/E (x) 7.2 12.2 12.1 7.6
P/BV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 7.5 7.2 5.4
EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.7 2.4 1.8
Source: Company, Karvy Institutional Research
Institutional Equities Team Rahul Sharma
Head – Institutional Equities /
Research / Pharma +91-22 61844310/01 [email protected]
Gurdarshan Singh Kharbanda Head - Sales-Trading +91-22 61844368/69 [email protected]
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Disclosures Appendix
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The following analyst(s), who is (are) primarily responsible for this report, certify (ies) that the views expressed
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contained in this research report.
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expressed herein constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities, or any options,
futures nor other derivatives related to such securities.
Karvy Stock Broking Limited Institutional Equities
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Stock Ratings Absolute Returns Buy : > 15% Hold : 5 - 15% Sell : < 5%