INDIAN AGRICULTURAL DATA ANALYSIS

K.Periasamy, Chennai

OVERALL GDP & AGRICULTURAL GDP

• The Long Term Growth trend is positive with the Growth rate increasing from 2.0% to 3.6% now.

• There were consistent dips in growth rates between 62 to 67 and 98 to 04.

GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION IN AGRICULTURE

During the period 00 – 04, Fertilizer Subsidy was kept very low.

In subsequent years, there is steady increase.

During the period 01 – 06, Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Wheat and Rice were not increased much.

The Food Grain Issue Prices for APL & BPL were kept constant from 2001 onwards. It is an indirect drain of Capital from Agriculture to other sectors.

Fertilizer Subsidy reduction and MSP stagnation could have resulted in Agricultural Debt accumulation.

Rs. 80,000 Crores Agricultural debt was written off during 2008.

Before Green Revolution (1965), the Food Grain Production growth rate was achieved by Sown Area increase, not by Yield increase.

After Green Revolution, the Yield and Food Grain Production have increased by about 2.5 times. There was no increase in Sown Area.

This was achieved by a combination of Hybrid Seeds, increased irrigation, increased Fertilizer usage and effective pest control.

• The Growth Rate in Yield (please note, not in Yield) has reached a plateau due to continued decline in Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) and depletion of Potassium, Phosphorous and Micro Nutrients.

• Sufficient replenishment of SOC and Nutrients was not done.

If the Yield has to be increased further the following need to be done:

a) Soil Organic Carbon content has to be increased by Source segregation of Municipal Solid Waste and recycling all the Organic matter back to the fields.

b) All Biomass based power plants like Agri waste (Rice husk, Coconut Shell, Rice Straw, etc), Municipal Solid Waste, etc shall be completely stopped.

c) All the Biomass shall be recycled back to the soil. The incentives provided for Biomass power plants shall be redirected for recycling back to the soil.

d) Further installation of Biogas plants shall be discouraged.

e) Complex Fertilizers and Micro Nutrients additions shall be encouraged with proper soil tests along with Urea addition.

f) The myth about Chemical Fertilizer addition spoiling the soil shall be exploded and it shall be ensured that Biomass recycling and Fertilizer addition go hand in hand.

g) New hybrid seeds to be introduced since the maximum yield possible for the currently used seeds for the given agro-climatic conditions has been reached.

It is shear ignorance to call this as failure of Green Revolution, since there is no decline in the Yield achieved by Green Revolution.

FERTILER CONSUMPTIONThere is steady increase in Fertilizer consumption.

Potassium consumption was lagging behind leading to imbalance in Fertilizer addition.

Now it is improving.

Trend in Agricultural Import / Export

AGRICULTURE IMPORTS / EXPORTS

There is steady increase in Agricultural Imports

There is higher increase in Agricultural Exports

There is net benefit to Agriculture

LAND USE PATERN

LAND USE PATERN

AGRICULTURAL CREDIT

EXPORT OF HORTICULTURAL PRODUCTS

CONSUMPTION OF FRUITS & VEGETABLES

COTTON PRODUCTION