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www.climateprojectindia.orgwww.climateprojectindia.org
A planet in peril….Our energy hungry approach to development is causing the planet to warm and risking the health of our future
Historically, countries have developed by converting natural resources into energy and products
Some of these natural resources, known as fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas), stored away millions of years of buried carbon in the ground.
When burned for energy (such as coal power plants or petrol), the carbon stored in these fuels combines with oxygen and is released into the air as carbon dioxide (CO2).
CO2 is a greenhouse gas which means it traps the sun’s heat in the atmosphere hence any increase leads to higher surface temperatures on Earth.
Since the industrial revolution, we have released CO2 on a massive scale causing a steep and measurable increase of CO2 in the air.
Initially we did not think about the consequences of changing the CO2 balance but we now see it has led to a warming planet- a process which is accelerating
Aside from hotter temperatures, we face rising sea levels, greater floods and droughts, loss of agriculture, loss of animal species, greater diseases and increased storm activity.
Scientists expect average temperatures to rise anywhere between 3-8 degrees by the end of this century if we do not significantly reduce our carbon emissions. We have about 10 years at best to make the changes and avoid dangerous temperature rise.
An Indian Perspective
India is going through a period of unprecedented economic growth
This has the capacity to deliver much needed improvements in health, education and lifestyles that 100s of millions of people in India lack
However, like the developed world, this economic growth is fueled by energy which presently is largely supplied by fossil fuels.
Hence, India’s current pathway of development would lead it to becoming a major contributor to the already dangerous levels of carbon dioxide emissions
Currently, India is a very low emitter of CO2, but this is as much to do with poverty as it is to do with sustainable practices.
Knowing what we know now about the harmful effects of Greenhouse gases, we need to find alternative means of energy and development
But these alternatives, such as renewable energy sources (wind, solar, geothermal etc) are often expensive or still require further development
Only through international co-operation and a strong domestic resolve, can India deliver on development today and a secure future for the planet and our children
Contents
• Indian contribution to Climate Change
• Indian Impacts
• Indian Opportunities
The average Indian produces very little carbon dioxide compared with International levels
Total Greenhouse Emissions (per person)
But given our size, we are an important player in the fight against Global warming
Relative contribution of fossil fuels to global warming (2007)
Source: Hansen et al. (2007). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7: 2287-2312
India already represents 5% of Greenhouse Gas emissions from Fossil Fuels
The Indian contribution to Global Warming has many facets
Poverty keeps India’s carbon dioxide emissions lowOver 400m Indians lack access to electricity
UNDP Human Development Indicators, 2008
But a growing rich class of Indians are increasing emissions dramaticallyTop 1% of Indians (those earning over $700 US per month) estimated to emit around to 5
tonnes CO2 per annum, close to global average
Greenpeace: ‘hiding behind the poor’, 2007
And our burning of biofuels such as wood for cooking adds new problemsIndia and China are the primary contributors of ‘black carbon’ (soot), which has a significant
and yet to be quantified impact on Climate ChangeJames Hansen et al
Some Indian practices helping keep our emissions low: But can we maintain them?
• Vegetarian diets use much less energy– But increased incomes leading to
shift in higher meat diets
• High rates of recycling– But has this just been a function of a
low labour cost economy?
Where Indian emissions come from?
Source: Indian UN submission, 2004
Green House Gas Indian Emissions Measured in CO2 Equivalent
Industrial processes(18 %)
EnergyIndustry(28 %)
Waste Disposal & Treatment (3.8%)
Land-use change & Bio-mass burning (7.2%)
Residential & Commercial (7.9%)
Fossil fuel Processing & Retrieval (2.1%)
Agriculture
(26.5%)
Transportation (6.5%)
Coal is our dominant source of energy, and the most harmful in terms of producing CO2
Source: CEA and MNRE (2008)
Indian Source of Power Generation
India will need to add a lot of additional power capacity to meet needs
Source: CEA (2008)
GigaWatts of Installed Power Capacity
Majority of increase is
planned to come from coal
India’s 10th 5 year plan
•27 GW of electric power
•25% to come from renewables
India’s 11th 5 year plan
•80 GW of electric power
•14% to come from renewables
By 2030 India aims to possess 800 GW of
power, that is 6 times what we have today
Source: Graham-Harrison 2008
Today India produces over 1.6 Gt of carbon emissions per year
Business as usual, means that India will produce 5.5 Gt of carbon emission per year by 2030-31. (Close to where China is today)
If we aim green the Planning Commission believes we can reach 3.9 Gt per year
Contents
• Indian contribution to Climate Change
• Indian Impacts
• Indian Opportunities
Agriculture: core to employment & security
Agriculture is the largest economic sector and plays a significant role in the overall socio-economic development of India.
“Around 46 % of the India’s geographical area is used for Agricultural Activities.”
Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 16.6% of the GDP in 2007 and
employed 60% of the country's population.
Climatic changes will reduce agriculture yields significantly
India may lose up to 17% of its farming income from increases in temperature
Mendolsohn, Yale University Study, 2008
"Wheat yields would fall by 5-10% with every increase of 1 degree celsius,"
Dr R.K. Pachauri, 2008
India already suffers from water scarcityIndia already suffers from water scarcity
Climate Change Is Going To Make The Climate Change Is Going To Make The Water Problems a Lot Worse!Water Problems a Lot Worse!
Red = decrease in precipitation
Source: UN World Water Development Report 2, CERE
Changes in precipitation will increase extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.
Blue = increase in precipitationGreen = No
change
Grey =No Data
Expected changes in precipitation
Warmer temperatures mean more water evaporates from the soil increasing the amount of droughts.
Farmer suicides can be directly linked to the impact that Climate Change is already having
DroughtsDroughts
FloodingFlooding
With more water evaporating, we get higher rates of flooding as well.
In India thousands of people are killed & millions affected by floods due to heavy rains in the monsoon season every year.
1/2 million
2003
20 million
2005
30 million
2004
6 million
2006
?2008
14 million
2007
Warmer temperatures mean more storms Warmer temperatures mean more storms
Arabian SeaGONU, June 2007 – Category 5
Bay of BengalSIDR, November 2007 – Category 5
Bay of BengalNARGIS, April 2008 – Category 4
Warmer temperatures cause stronger storms…
CATEGORY 5 November 15, 2007
Super Cyclone Sidr
US $ 4.4 billion in damages
4.1 Lakh destruction of farm land
12 lakh tonnes of rice paddy devastated- this accounts for 40% of the country’s output
Led to reduced yields in other paddy farms.
8.9 Million environmental refugees left homeless
Photo: Nikhil Devasar/Sanctuary Photolibrary
The Himalayan glaciers are very important to us because…
They are the source of 7 major rivers
They provide water to 40% of the world’s population
Our glaciers are melting away
1936 2006Pindari Glacier
Photo: International Snow Leopard Trust
And the Himalayan snow leopards
Begin to lose their homes…
Photo: Sanctuary
Are losing their habitat
Effect of fragmentation, forest degradation and climate change on mean species abundance of India.
20302008
Source: GIST
Animals and fauna across India predicted to disappear rapidly
RED means 0% species
present
Contents
• Indian contribution to Climate Change
• Indian Impacts
• Indian Opportunities
Harness Renewables: 4th in Wind Capacity Today
India’s solar energy potential
Source: NASA Atmospheric Science Data Center (2008)Kilowatt-hours per square meter per day
Harness Renewables: Significant Solar Resource
Urbanization in India:a chance to incorporate latest thinking
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000
Census Years
Urb
aniz
atio
n (
%)
Source: Unicef
% of Indian population living in urban areas
India is one of the least urbanized countries in the world
Private vehicles in India account for 67.6% of motorized vehicles in India.
They carry 37% of the commuters and take up 67.1% of the road width.
Buses are 24.4% of the vehicles, 61% of the commuters and 38% of the road width.
CO2 emissions from cars has increased by 73% and from two wheelers by 61% in Delhi alone
Chance to build proper Chance to build proper public transport in our public transport in our new cities from the startnew cities from the start
Source: Down To Earth Magazine, 2008 (CSE Publication)
Opportunity To Develop More Efficiently?
India
USAGreece
ItalyJapan Norway Iceland
South Africa
UK
Electricity consumption(annual kw hrs/person, 2004)
Human Development Index (2007)
Get here by 2030?
Government of India has approved 213 new coal plants in the next 8
years. Planning Commission
But these haven’t been built yet. Can we find alternatives?
An Opportunity To Change
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Examples of no regrets – only gains – not so complex solutions
Increase Women’s Education
Protect and PlantMore Trees
Improve Public Transport
Reduce/ImproveBio Fuel Cooking
Tax Power andWater Consumption
Progressively
Subsidize CleanerTechnologies Not
Polluting Ones
Electrify non-powered villages with renewables
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The Power To Change
"Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction." “There is a sufficiency in the world for man's need but not for man's greed”