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Indian Gas Scenario 2011

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    THE ENERGY CH LLENGETOTAL COMMERCIAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS

    YEAR TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY(MMTOE)

    7% GDP 8% GDP

    2006-07 385 394

    2011-12 505 5372016-17 653 718

    2026 - 27 1060 1248

    2031-32 1333 1620

    - FOUR FOLD GROWTH

    DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION

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    THE ENERGY CH LLENGEELECTRICITY REQUIREMENTS

    YEAR INSTALLED CAPACITY - MW

    7% GDP 8% GDP

    2003-04 131424 131424

    2006-07 149806 152610

    2011-12 206757 2199922016-17 276143 305623

    2021-22 368592 424744

    2026 - 27 480694 574748

    2031-32 627088 778095

    - FIVE TO SIX FOLD INCREASE

    DRAFT REPORT - INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY PLANNING COMMISSION

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    THE ENERGY CH LLENGEREQUIREMENT OF COAL AND GASPOWER SECTOR

    YEAR COAL (MMT) GAS (MMTOE) GAS(MMSCMD)

    7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 8%

    2003-04 318 318 13 13 39 39

    2011-12 366 375 17 18 51 542016-17 455 493 36 41 108 124

    2021-22 678 814 48 58 145 175

    2026-27 885 1133 69 89 208 268

    2031-32 1096 1478 100 134 301 404

    NON POWER GAS DEMAND = 227 MMSCMD TO 274 MMSCMD

    GAS DEMAND OVER NEXT 25 YEARS = 528 MMSCMD TO 678 MMSCMD

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    0

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    Years

    BCM

    BOMBAYHIGH

    SOUTHBASSEIN

    ACCELERATEDDEVELOPMENT

    OFFSHORE

    LNG IMPORTSMAR -- 04

    INDI N G S SECTOR M JOR MILESTONES

    KG FINDS

    MYANMAR FIND

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    INDI N G S M RKET OVERVIEW

    DOMESTIC SUPPLIES - 74 MMSCMD

    IMPORTS (LNG) - 18 MMSCMD

    DEMAND POTENTIAL - 150 MMSCMD

    MAJOR PLAYERS

    E&P -

    - ONGC, OIL, RELIANCE, BRITISH GAS, CAIRN, NIKO,GSPC

    LNG -

    - PETRONET LNG LTD (JV OF PSU,s, GDF, ADB)

    - SHELL HAZIRA LNG LTD (SHELL, TOTALFINA-ELF)

    - RATNAGIRI PROJECT

    GAS TRANSMISSION & MARKETING - GAIL (INDIA) LTD

    REGIONAL / RETAIL - MGL, IGL, GCC, GSPC, AGC, TNGCL,PLAYERS BGL, GSPL, GGL & OTHERS

    92 MMSCMD

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    G S END USE P TTERN

    42%

    31%

    4%

    13%

    10%

    POWER FERTILIZER SPONGE IRON

    OTHERS I.C./SHRINKAGE

    CONSUMPTION - 92 MMSCMD

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    TYPICAL PIPELINE SYSTEMS

    MAINTRANSMISSIO

    N SYSTEM

    REGIONALTRANSMISSIO

    N SYSTEM

    DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM

    Typical Pressure

    Range (Bar)

    40 to 70 15 to 40 10 to 0.025

    Diameter 24 to 48 Up to 22 Down to 2

    Material of

    construction

    Steel Steel Steel or HDPE

    Pipe

    Others Supply to regional

    system or large

    customer

    Supply to medium

    scale consumers &

    feed to distribution

    systems

    Supply to small

    consumers &

    residential users

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    CROSS BORDER

    GAS PIPELINES

    MYANMAR- INDIAGAS PIPELINE

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    LENGTH: 1500 KMDIAMETER: 36

    NO CROSS BORDER AND POLITICAL ISSUES WITH

    BANGLADESH GOVERNMENT.

    ACCESS TO POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS IN NORTH-EAST INDIA,

    NORTH - BENGAL AND BIHAR

    OPPORTUNITY OF CONNECTING TRIPURA AND OTHER NEGAS FIELDS.

    LONGEST AMONG ON-LAND PIPELINE OPTIONS.

    HILLY TERRAIN.

    ON-SHORE PIPELINE : MYANMARNE - INDIA

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    A. Offshore Pipelines- Shallow water (200~250 m)

    - Deep water (1560 m)

    - Deep water (2210 m)

    B. Onshore Pipelines

    - Via Chittagaon - Coxs Bazaar(Bangladesh)

    - Via Tripura (India) - Dhaka(Bangladesh)- Through North-East Indian territory

    C. LNG Marine Route

    D. CNG Marine Route

    Within EEZ of Bangladesh

    Outside EEZ of Bangladesh

    OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATIONFROM MYANMAR TO INDIA8 NOS.

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    BLOCK A 1

    SITTWE LANDFALLPOINT MYANMAR

    MYAYNGU KYAN

    PARADIP

    HALDIAALT I VIA CHATTGAON/ COXS BAZAR)

    ALT II VIA TRIPURA

    OFF-SHORE SHALLOW WATER

    OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (WITHIN EEZ)

    OFF-SHORE DEEP WATER (OUTSIDE EEZ)ONSHORE ROUTE VIA. BANGLADESH

    ONSHORE VIA. N E INDIA

    LNG OPTION

    CNG OPTION

    PROPOSEDJAGDISHPUR HALDIA PIPELINE

    Gaya

    Jagdishpur

    MYANMAR- INDIA GAS PIPELINE

    OPTIONS OF GAS EVACUATIONFROM MYANMAR TO INDIA

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    IranPakistan- India

    Gas Pipeline

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    INDICATIVE IRAN-PAKISTAN- INDIA PIPELINE ROUTE

    N

    AC-1

    JAISALMER

    BHONG

    ASSALUYAH

    AssaluyahPakistan Border 1100KMsPakistan BorderAC1 750KMsAC1India Border 250

    KMs

    Indicative Pipeline Route

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    Gas Demand for India: 60-90 MMSCMD

    Gas Demand for Pakistan:30-60MMSCMD

    Pipeline size: 56

    Pipeline Length: 2100 KMS

    Capital Cost: Approx.Rs. 29000 Crores.

    O&M Cost: 2% of Capital Cost

    Transit Fee: to be decided as per the

    Energy Charter Treaty (ECT)

    SALIENT FEATURES

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    CROSS BORDER G S PIPELINES

    TURKMENISTAN - AFGHANISTAN

    - PAKISTAN GAS PIPELINE

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    PROPOSED ROUTE OF TAP

    PIPELINE

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    SALIENT FEATURES

    GAS SUPPLY : 90 MMSCMD

    PIPELINE SIZE: 56

    PIPELINE LENGTH: 1700 KMS

    CAPITAL COST: APPROX. $ 3.3 bn

    TRANSIT FEE: AS PER INTERNATIONAL NORMS

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    Exploration Status35%

    29%

    18%18%PoorlyExplored

    Initiated

    Unexplored

    WellExplored

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    Only 18% of the total 3.14 million sq. km. hasbeen extensively explored

    < 25% of total prognosticated resources

    established

    Reserves estimated only in 15 of the 26 basins

    Low Drilling Density

    Exploration Status

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    The exploration and production activities

    were carried out in various sedimentaryblocks in India by NOCs on nomination

    basis till formulation NELP and ML

    policies

    After formulation of NELP and ML

    policies the blocks of sedimentary basins

    were awarded for Exploration andproduction activities to NOCs as well as

    Private Oil Companies on competitive

    bidding.

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    Delhi

    Mumbai

    Chennai

    Kolkata

    Phase-I (93Blocks)Phase-II (21 Blocks)

    Development Phase (4Blocks)

    Wells Drilled (17Blocks)

    StatusofExploration

    NELP - 90 Blocks

    Pre-NELP - 28 Blocks

    Total 118 Blocks

    4

    21

    93

    Dev. Phase

    Phase-I

    Phase-II

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    History of Gas Pricing in India Gas a nuisance during production of Oil in early yearsdifficult to get value for it. In 1960s sold for a few rupees

    per MCM.

    In1970s demand for gas grew in Assam and Gujarat,prices rose. Gas used for applications including as citygas.

    ONGC to get revenue from gas priced it on thermalequivalence of alternate fuel. In one factory two different

    prices for gas based upon the end use.

    Consumer resistance & disputes were settled only aftertwo decades.

    In 1987 uniform price for all consumers with special

    concession only for the North East region.

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    Present Prices of Non-APM

    GasProducing field Quantity Price (in $/mmbtu)

    (in mmscmd) Floor CeilingPanna, Mukta & Tapti 5 4.08

    6 3.86

    Ravva PSC 2.96 1.75 3.00

    Ravva Satellite 1 2.30 3.30

    Lakshmi Contract I 3.06 4.46

    Contract II 3.68

    GSPCL 3.76Regassified LNG at Dahej 3.45

    (Before sales tax)

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    CNG Pricing

    Maharashtra Mumbai Rs 20.90 per kg

    Mira-Bhayandar Rs 21 per kg

    Thane Rs 21.30 per kg

    National Capital Region Delhi Rs 18 per kg

    Gujarat Ahmedabad Rs 25.53 per Kg

    Baroda Rs 20.92 per Kg

    Bharuch

    Ankaleshwar

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    Some Comments

    Myanmar had offered well-head gas at$2.52/mmbtu Excluding processing and transportation costs

    India wanted Iran gas landed at $2/mmbtu All put together, the cost of gas at the Indian border is

    expected to be above $5 per mmbtu as Iran wants LNGprice for pipeline gas also

    NTPC now willing to buy gas at a premium as against the current APM gas price of $ 2.1 per

    mmbtu which is in short supply

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    Demand Assessment -Natural

    GasMMSCMD

    2007 2010 2012

    Power Sector 75 95 110

    Fertilizer Sector 50 60 60

    Industrial Sector 20 25 30

    City Gas Distribution 10 15 15

    Total 155 195 215

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    Demand-Supply Balance

    60 60 60

    2003-04

    2010-11

    120

    mmscmd75

    mmscmd

    215

    mmscmd

    180mmscmd Unmet Demand:

    35 mmscmd

    Unmet Demand:

    45 mmscmd

    Demand Supply existing

    sources

    Supply new

    domestic findsLNG

    Window of

    opportunity

    of approx 40

    mmscmd


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