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INDIAN HIGHWAYSA REVIEW OF ROAD AND ROAD TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT
The Indian Roads Congress
E-mail: [email protected]/[email protected]
Founded : December 1934
IRC Website: www.irc.org.inJamnagar House, Shahjahan Road,
New Delhi - 110 011
Tel : Secretary General: +91 (11) 2338 6486
Sectt. : (11) 2338 5395, 2338 7140, 2338 4543, 2338 6274
Fax : +91 (11) 2338 1649
Kama Koti Marg, Sector 6, R.K. Puram
New Delhi - 110 022
Tel : Secretary General : +91 (11) 2618 5303
Sectt. : (11) 2618 5273, 2617 1548, 2671 6778,
2618 5315, 2618 5319, Fax : +91 (11) 2618 3669
No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without prior written permission from the Secretary General.
Edited and Published by Shri Vishnu Shankar Prasad on behalf of the Indian Roads Congress (IRC), New Delhi. The responsibility of the
contents and the opinions expressed in Indian Highways is exclusively of the author/s concerned. IRC and the Editor disclaim responsibility
and liability for any statement or opinion, originality of contents and of any copyright violations by the authors. The opinions expressed in the
papers and contents published in the Indian Highways do not necessarily represent the views of the Editor or IRC.
VOLUME 41 NUMBER 3 MARCH 2013
CONTENTS ISSN 0376-7256
Page
2-5 Editorial
6-9 Meet the New President & Vice-Presidents of the Indian Roads Congress
10 Advertisement Tariff
11 New Developments
Technical Papers
12 Imperative of Risk Management in Highway Projects
Indrasen Sing, Pralhad Kabra and Anand Kulkarni
27 Design of High Embankment Using Red Mud
Sarat Kumar Das, Subrat Kumar Rout and Tapaswini Sahoo
35 Effect of Shape of Aggregate on Pavement Quality Concrete
Kundan Meshram and H.S. Goliya
43 Nanotechnology in Highway Engineering
Y.C. Tewari and R.S. Bharadwaj
49 Comparison Between Coarse Aggregate Shape Factors and Resulting mix Properties Using Conventional and New Universal
Gauge Instruments
Mohamed Ilyas Anjum
55-76 Circular’s Issued by Ministry
77 Tender Notice of NHs Kanpur
78 Tender Notice of NHs Lucknow
79 Tender Notice of NHs Madurai
80 Tender Notice of NHs Chennai
81 Obituary
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2 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013
Dear Readers,
The massive road development programme being witnessed since last few years and may continue for many
more years also demands for adequate attention towards not only quantitative but qualitative availability
of requisite man power to meet the demand of all spectrum of activities of this sector. Therefore, a focused
attention is required to be given to this crucial issue .
Today, the task in front of road engineers & professionals is not as simple as is commonly perceived. They
have to function in a highly restrictive and competitive environment while catering to all issues related to
nancial, administrative and legal aspects in addition to the technical matters. The roads are considered to
be one of the basic facility & amenity and thereby every citizen considers his right and demands for the
same. Similarly, the other sectors of the economy take the availability of the roads as granted. This intricate
paradoxical scenarios of “Cater-all” & “please-all” builds additional pressure on the road sector professionals.
Therefore, the road sector, thereby per-se demands that the sectoral professionals should be exposed and
equipped with the techno-management skills so as to allow him to make potential decisions & sustainable
propositions within the limit of the resources, man, materials and machinery.
Just remember, the quote from Holy Bhagwad Gita:
“While doing your duties let me tell you, never bring in any of the attitudes of the outer self. Anger, hate,
jealousy, attachment, all pertains to the outer self. Be in oneness with your inner self and do all of your duties;
nothing will touch you or pollute you. This living identity with your inner self will give you the attitude of
equanimity. The equanimous view of everthing that you come across whether it is man or material, is the
ultimate goal of life.”
Keeping the above in view, the road sector professionals can become the enablers of economic growth besides
becoming in true sense the force behind empowering the people socially. However, the transformational
potential results of human potential in the road sector are not very easy to comprehend. The human potential
is a complex, composite of instinct, intelligence, personality, knowledge, skills, motivation, attitude and
behaviours besides he is continuously shaped by his genetic inheritance, family, friends, education,
surroundings as well as his personal life experiences. Therefore, to what extent the real human potential can
be utilized gainfully by any sector depends upon the enabling environment prevailing therein. This is equallyapplicable for road sector also.
Everyone knows that Indians constitute about 1/6th of the total world’s population. The unique Indian
characteristics like commitment to inclusive growth, a long term perspective on business objectives and the
much wanted proclivity for the “Jugaad – the improvisional ability to nd workable solutions around seeming
intractable problems” are internationally recognized and respected. However, these strengths are yet to be
adequately be harnessed and channelized in the road sector.
From the Editor’s Desk
WAY FORWARD FOR INVESTING IN HUMAN RESOURCE
IN ROAD SECTOR
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EDITORIAL
Essentially, we will be able to analyze and deliver seamless economic benets to the people of this great
country, if different technologies are effectively harnessed in the road sector i.e. Leveraging technology for
real growth through improvement in efciency of deliverance and effectiveness of infrastructure created;
Deployment of right people with right skills at the right place for optimization of human resource output,
etc.
It is always good to remember that when technologies, services and human intelligence convergence in
radical creative ways, then a new powerful application emerge which transforms the industry and redene
the sector.
As mentioned earlier, the road sector in India is witnessing unprecedented demand and pressure besides
opening of the opportunities for this sector to be one of the most crucial enabler for sustainable economic
growth. The employees, like in any other sector, in the road sector also require continuous up-gradation in
their competencies and for this there is a need to have a proper system in place. The due investment in the
road sector with an aim to bridge the competence gap towards building skill and productive work force to
meet challenges of competition & sustainability in this sector requires a serious approach from all concerned.What we require today is an “out of box” skill enhancement approach not limited to just thinking but with
demonstrative practices.
Employees, as individuals, reect the collective caliber of an organization. When an organization hopes
to achieve its set out goals & objectives, the competence of the employees plays a major role. Therefore,
“competency” provides the basis for investing in them when said in an organizational context. The scientic
approach of competency modeling, measurement and deployment pave the way for continually enhancing
collective capability. This is nothing but a concept of “partnering for progress” in a mutually benecial way.
Whenever any sector faces difcult time, then it is necessary to go for an in-depth introspection. The common
result of sectoral introspections generally points towards the skill gap falling into three main areas :- Critical
thinking, Communication capabilities and Ability to function as an efcient team. Even in the normal
circumstances the organization/sector loses its pace of growth if the sector does not have “critical thinkers”.
The critical thinking is an important requirement for effective problem solving system. It is generally dened
as a type of higher order thinking that questions prevailing assumptions. Adept a logical reasoning, critical
thinkers believe that there is more than one route to a desire outcome and they can leverage this exible
approach for optimal results. Organizations value critical thinkers for what they bring to the table, normally
the ability to change the status-quo, driving change and innovation in the process. The critical thinking as a
collective skill can be organizational building attribute but how many organizations as well as educational
institute provide or consider for the same!
The developed countries have their own system of skill development and harness the human potential for the benets of their respective country’s goals, growth and development. The Japanese organizations have a system
of “Genba” as their strength. It is a “bottom – up” approach and is the site where all important processes takes
place, where people have full power and responsibility for what happens. This approach helps in involving
& associating the workforce right from the grass root level and helps in building dedication and loyalty
towards the organization. But in today’s scenario where the rapid technological changes are transforming
the management approaches the world over, the road sector may become more strong and sustainable if a
combination of “Bottom-up” and “Top-down” approach complementing each other is adopted. This Human
Resource building approach may help in bringing required stability in the profession.
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4 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013
EDITORIAL
The road sector professionals is not only to manage but also to nd solutions to the various issues right from
the stages of conceptualization & planning stage in regard to land acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental
clearance, environmental mitigation plans, nancial tie-ups, material linkages, technological tie-ups, revenue
collection (toll collection and management”), road safety management, etc. Therefore, comprehensive
employee training programme with an emphasis on application and problem solving to serve as a drive to build the road sector organization on sustainable basis are needed to be given a serious consideration.
In addition the new Techno-Management Technique of “Collaborative Leadership” is very much applicable
for the road sector under the current scenario. It is a “Techno-Managerial” way wherein leaders avail the
synergetic relationship between team members to create a bigger and better organizational structure. It is
a articulated skill of working together, sharing knowledge, ideas and thoughts to achieve a common goal.
It facilitates in creating an inhibition-free atmosphere beside resulting in signicantly improved efciency,
productivity, accountability and competence. Moreover, using simulated scenario and other training modules,
road sector employees can be exposed to the ‘quick thinking techniques’ to think quick & logically in order
to come up with reasonable/ practical solutions within a given time.
It is necessary that each road organization identify the training needs of their employees by carrying out
specic ‘Training Needs Assessment’ (TNA) exercise on regular basis to identify the skill-decit areas to
bridge the same. The training modules should be such that they should create avenues to produce the breed
of innovators and problem-solvers who are not afraid to push the boundaries at work. While working out the
skill development training programme in the road sector, the outcome should also be evaluated on regular
basis to ascertain whether the training imparted have imbibed the skills required to excel in the identied
areas, analytical thinking and logical approach, zeal, persistence and condence in the participants.
The human resource development may not be accomplished without allowing and creating an enabling
framework for research & development. R&D coupled with innovations requires an enabling environment
to spread the benets of development within the reachable reach of all stake-holders. However, researchhas much more to do with independent, unorthodox and creative thinking then with strategic thinking. This
system practiced in some of the developed countries allows a large number of researchers to realize the fruits
of their intellectual labour (which would have been harder to achieve in the country of their birth) and at the
same time benetting the country in which they carried out the research. Today, the need of the hour to make
the Indian road sector vibrant and to allow holistic development of human resource of this sector demands
for an urgent need to create enabling framework for research & development and enabling environment for
innovators and their innovations so that applied research can be promoted and practiced. This may help in
making this sunrise sector “Techno – Economically” sustainable.
As mentioned earlier, we are witnessing the World’s biggest road sector initiatives. In order to ensure the
resounding success and sustainability of results of this mega initiative, it is necessary that not only dueinvestment is earmarked for Skill-enhancement , Skill- development, Skill- demonstration and Skill-
imparting programme but requisite enabling & supporting infrastructure is also required to be put in place.
The data of the employees imparted skill-enhancement/ development trainings should be web-based, so
that it may become accessible to all concerned for utilization of their attained expertise. It also needs to be
evaluated whether all the employees working in the organization are deputed for the trainings on regular
basis without any discrimination & prejudice. Till this is practiced in true spirit, the skill – enhancement &
development in road sector or any sector may remain loop-sided. For example, the Contract Management is
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INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013 5
EDITORIAL
an intricate ‘Technical–Art’. The road sector professional should be exposed to the same so that he may be
able to differentiate between ‘Administering the Contract’ from ‘Management of Contract’ and ‘Managing
the Management of Contract’. Proper skill development trainings may help in better project formulations and
handling especially PPP projects, thereby reducing the scope of contractual disputes and additional claims.
Generally the Capacity building & training activity is considered a low priority as well as an incidental activity
rather than a focused activity. However, little thought is given to the fact that Trained & skilled employees can
make difference to the pattern of growth, development, dynamism & prospects of an organization. The crucial
aspect that employees signicantly contribute to the reputation of an organization as well as to the country is
generally given a miss. This aspect plays in vital role in making a organization globally competitive as well. If
road sector organizations desire to spread their reach globally in an effective way then they may require making
a sincere effort towards the capacity/skill building exercise. The government, PSU, educational institutes and
private sector organizations should join their efforts and inter-link their competencies & capabilities in the
eld of capacity building with an aim to cover all the professionals & work force every 5 years period. Public-
Private-Partnership concept in capacity building in road sector is very much essential in today scenario, which
may be not only an economical proposition to all but will create a win-win situation in this activity. The sectorshould also consider instituting the awards for efciency & innovations.
The skill-building exercise should be separated from the routine working & functioning of the road sector
organization to allow them a space to function in a holistic manner. They may also cater to inter-linkages
with the educational & research institutions so that young talents may be tapped at the initial stages
itself. This may help in creating internationally competitive road sector professionals. This grooming of
young professionals to become mature contributors to the growth of road sector is very much needed.
Towards the same it may not be out of the place to mention that for the rst time , IRC has allowed the
M.Tech and Research students to become regular members of IRC to tap their potential to contribute
to growth/development in the road sector as well as to enhance their employability. In the recently held
73rd IRC Annual Session at Coimbatore, a novel initiative was taken by providing opportunity to PG Students/
Researchers to show-case their innovations/research work on IRC platform.
The organizations normally get much higher return on the investment made by them in human resource
development. Leaving aside the other benets like large percentage of employee retention, increased
productivity, image building, etc. the nancial return to the organizations are manifold and the same is also
applicable for the government sector as well , keeping in view that with higher productivity & efciency the
deliverance of the government projects & new initiatives also get improves, benetting the public at large
as well as nation as a whole. Therefore. Earmarked investment in the capacity building/skill enhancement/
skill development should be made an essential & regular feature covering all stake-holders and entire-work
force.
“The end product of education should be a free, creative mind, who can battle against historical circumstances and
adversaries of nature”.
(Quote of Dr. S. Radhakrishnan)
Place: New Delhi Vishnu Shankar Prasad
Dated: 21st Feb 2013 Secretary General
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6 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013
MEET THE NEW PRESIDENT OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS
SHRI C. KANDASAMY
Director General (Road Development) &
Special Secretary to the Govt. of India
Shri C. Kandasamy joined Central Engineering Service (Roads) of Government of India in 1976 and have
held various positions in the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways as well as in the National Highways
Authority of India.
He was on deputation with National Highways Authority of India as General Manager and was associated
with Phase-I of NHDP (Golden Quadrilateral). As Chief General Manager Shri Kandasamy was involved in
Phase –II of NHDP (North South & East West Corridors). He took most of the projects under his jurisdiction
in North-South corridor through the BOT model. As Member (Technical), NHAI, he was incharge of Phase III
(BOT) of NHDP projects. In his long and illustrious career spanning over 35 years, Shri Kandasamy has been
involved in all aspects of development of National Highways including implementation of NHDP.
Shri C. Kandasamy held various positions in the Ministry and elevated to the post of Director General
(Road Development) and Special Secretary in December 2011.
Shri C. Kandasamy is a Life Member of the Indian Roads Congress. He is an eminent engineer of repute
and is closely associated with Indian Roads Congress. He is Convenor of Apex Committees, Highways
Specications & Standards, Bridges Specications & Standards and General Specications & Standards of
IRC. Besides, he is also instrumental in preparation of IRC Codes, Specications, Manuals etc.
Shri C. Kandasamy has been elected as President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session
held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.
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INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013 7
MEET THE IMMEDIATE PAST PRESIDENT OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS
Born on 22nd July 1957, Shri P.N. Jain graduated in
Civil Engineering from L.D. College of Engineering,
Ahmedabad in the year 1979 with distinction. He
qualied the Direct Recruit Examination conducted
by the Gujarat Public Service Commission and
joined the Roads & Buildings Department, Govt.
of Gujarat as Executive Engineer in 1980. Shri Jain
was promoted as Superintending Engineer and Chief
Engineer in the years 1990 and 1997 respectively.
He has been involved in execution of various works,
such as, Construction and Maintenance works
of State Highways, Major District Roads, Other
District Roads including Major and Minor Bridges
of Gandhinagar, Mehsana, Banaskantha and Kutch
Districts including Capital City Gandhinagar. He
also worked as Secretary, Gujarat Slum ClearanceBoard, Ahmedabad especially in various schemes
related to slum dwellers of low, medium and high
income group of housing projects in different cities/
towns of Gujarat State.
As Chief Engineer (Quality Control) and
Addl. Secretary, he inspected many on-going
projects related to Roads, Bridges & Buildings.
Shri Jain worked as Technical Advisor to Vigilance
Commissioner in the capacity of Chief Engineer
& Addl. Secretary for more than 4 years. He alsoworked as Chief Engineer (Capital Projects) and
Additional Secretary in charge of various works
of Construction & Maintenance of Roads, Bridges
& Buildings etc. of Ahmedabad & Gandhinagar.
Shri Jain has also worked as Arbitrator for disputed
cases of Government & Contractors.
SHRI P.N. JAIN
As Chief Engineer & Director, Staff Traning College,
Roads & Buildings Department, Gandhinagar, he was
responsible for providing Departmental and Special
Training to Inservice Engineers of Roads & Buildings
Department, Irrigation Department of Government ofGujarat of various cadres in collaboration with Experts
of National and International Highways Institutes,
Project Management Institutes, such as, UTiM-
Malaysia, NITHE-New Delhi, CRRI-New Delhi,
NICMAR-Pune, GIDB-Gandhinagar, IEI (GSC) –
Ahmedabad, Nirma University, GICEA-Ahmedabad
and LD Engineeing College-Ahmedabad.
Shri Jain is presently working as Chief Engineer
(NH) & Additional Secretary, R&B Department,
Gandhinagar looking after the construction and
maintenance of National Highways of Gujarat
and other important projects, such as, Railway
Over Bridges, Railway Under Bridges on
Annuity-BOT & CRF works. Shri P.N. Jain is Life
Member of various other Professional Bodies like,
Indian Buildings Congress, Institution of Engineers
(India), Indian Concrete Institute, Institution of
Indian Public Administration, Gujarat Institute
of Civil Engineers & Architecture and ComputerSociety of India-Gujarat Chapter.
Shri P.N. Jain was elected as President of the Indian
Roads Congress during its 72nd Annual Session held
at Lucknow (U.P.) in November, 2011 and he is
Immediate Past President and member of Executive
Committee for the year 2013.
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8 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013
MEET THE NEW VICE-PRESIDENTS OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS
SHRI SANDEEP B. VASAVA
Shri Sandeep B. Vasava did B.E. (Civil) with distinction
from M.S. University, Baroda in 1989. In 1990
Shri Vasava passed the Gujarat Public Service Commission
Examination topping the list. In 1991, he joined the Road &
Building Department, Government of Gujarat as AssistantExecutive Engineer. He was promoted as Executive
Engineer in the year 1995 and posted in the National
Highways Division, Baroda. In 1999, Shri Vasava was
promoted as Superintending Engineer, National Highway
Circle, Baroda. In this capacity, he has handled major
BOT Project of bridges across river Mahi and Narmada
on National Highway No. 8.
In 2002, he was promoted as Chief Engineer and posted
as Managing Director, Gujarat State Road Development
Corporation. In 2006, Shri S.B. Vasava was elevated to the post of Chief Engineer & Additional Secretary (National
Highways).
At present, he is working as Chief Engineer (P) and
Additional Secretary and Chief Executive Ofcer of
GSRRDA. Shri Vasava is involved in Construction and
Maintenance of Rural Roads and Implementation of
PMGSY scheme of Government of India. He has also
served on various Committees of Government of Gujarat.
He was also the Member Secretary for the Sub Group of
State Roads for Formulation of 11th
and 12th
Five YearPlan for Planning Commission, Government of India. He
is also Council Member of the Institution of Engineers.
Shri Sandeep B. Vasava has been elected as Vice-President
of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session
held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.
SHRI KIRAN KUMAR YALLAPPA MAHINDRAKAR, VSM
Shri Kiran Kumar Yallappa Mahindrakar graduated in Civil
Engineering from BVB College of Engineering & Technology,
Hubli in 1976. After graduation, he was involved as Site
Engineer/Resident Engineer in construction of one mile long
Malaprabha Right Bank Canal Aqueduct over Bennihalla River
and completed 72 Nos of well foundations in black cotton soil
and erected substructures from 1976 to 1979. Shri Mahindrakar
joined as Assistant Executive Engineer as rst batch of Border
Roads Engineering Services in BRDB/MoRTH in 1979 through
Combined Engineering Services Examination of UPSC. He was
involved in road construction in far ung areas of North East
devoid of basic amenities and having poor road communication.
He showed his technical competence in planning & construction
of bridges on NH-44. Due to his excellent result oriented attitude
he was selected for Masters in Highways (Transport Engineering)
from University of Roorkee and passed out with Gold Medal
in 1986.
Shri Mahindrakar was promoted as Executive Engineer in
1992 and in this capacity he was responsible for construction,maintenance of roads, bridges and causeways, widening of roads
in insurgency infested region in the States of Nagaland and
then in Manipur. He was promoted as Superintending Engineer
in 1997.As Superintending Engineer he was responsible for
construction of roads of strategic importance along the border in
the States of Arunachal Pradesh and J&K.
Shri Mahindrakar was promoted as Chief Engineer in 2003. In
this capacity, he was responsible of road construction including
widening of strategically important roads and National Highways
in the States of Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh.
For his exemplary services, he was awarded Chief of Army Staff
Commendation Card in 1986 and for his meritorious serviceshe was awarded by His Excellency the President of India with
VISHISHT SEVA MEDAL during Republic Day 2006.
Presently, he is working as Dy. Director General (Pers) looking
after Human Resources Department called Pers Dte in HQ
DGBR, New Delhi.
Shri Kiran Kumar Yallappa Mahindrakar has been elected as
Vice-President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73 rd Annual
Session held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.
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INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013 9
MEET THE NEW VICE-PRESIDENTS OF THE INDIAN ROADS CONGRESS
SHRI A. SAMUEL EBENEZER JEBARAJAN
Shri A. Samuel Ebenezer Jebarajan completed his B.E. (Civil
Engg) from Govt. College of Engineering, Salem, Tamil Nadu
in 1978.
Shri Jebarajan started his Engineering carrier in Bharat Heavy
Electricals Ltd., Trichy and was involved in execution of
Multi-storied Buildings during 1978-79. He joined as Assistant
Engineer in Corporation of Chennai and designed variousstorm water drains for Chennai during 1979-80. Then in 1980,
he joined the Highways & Rural Works Department of Tamil
Nadu and executed Bridge works, Rural Roads and National
Highway Projects in Trichy and Salem Circle areas. He has put
in exemplary service in Rural Development Wing and executed
infrastructure projects, Road & Bridge works and various
housing projects.
He has executed Bridges in Chennai, across Coovam River and
Major Bridge works across Kaveri River near Madurai. He held
various positions in the divisions of Quality Control, execution
of Major Ring Roads, Bridge works including maintenance of
roads. He has put in four years of service under the aegis of
Highways Research Station, Chennai in Concrete lab and as
Deputy Director (Soils) and implemented new technologies,
such as, usage of copper slag for GSB and pavement designs
for distressed highways and other trafc studies for RITES and
other researches in Trafc & Soils. He completed his M.Sc (I.T)
from the Alagappa University by distance education.
As Superintending Engineer (H) Shri Jebarajan has monitored
execution of major Bridge and Road works in South Tamil Nadu.
When he was promoted as Chief Engineer (H) he took charge
as the Chief Engineer (H), Planning, Design & Investigation,
Chennai during 2011-12 and monitored design of major bridges
and grade separators.
Shri Jebarajan is presently working as Chief Engineer (H),
Metro monitoring the execution of major Grade Separators, Link
Roads and other prestigious projects in Chennai Metropolitan
area under State Fund and World Bank Projects. His earnest
participations in various training programs under NITHE,
New Delhi, international organizations such as IRF at New Delhi
and IABSE at Chennai and at Venice, Italy has strengthened
his technical ability besides the knowledge of Primavera for
planning.
Shri A. Samuel Ebenezer Jebarajan has been elected as Vice-
President of the Indian Roads Congress during its 73 rd Annual
Session held at Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.
SHRI SWATANTRA KUMAR
Shri Swatantra Kumar graduated in Civil Engineering from
Malviya National Institute of Technology, Jaipur, Rajasthan
in 1996. He has also done Post Graduation (MBA–Marketing)
from All India Management Association, New Delhi in the
year 2000.
Shri Swatantra Kumar has started his career with Renaissance
Aqua Sports Pvt. Ltd. New Delhi in the year 1996 as a Site
Engineer and was involved in design and construction of
Swimming pools and health club of different capacities.
In the year 1997, he joined Aimil Ltd. as Engineer, Business
Development for North India. Aimil is a market leader addressing
instrumentation needs of the nation for the last 8 decades.
Aggressively involved in providing total instrumentation
solution to the wide range of industries like Roads, Buildings,
Education, Thermal power, Hydro Power, Cement etc. He was
also actively involved in getting accreditation of NABL and ISO
for his Company.
Shri Swatantra Kumar was promoted as Business Managerin 2005 and in this capacity he was responsible for business
development of imported products of leading manufacturers
from U.S.A. and Europe in frontier areas of Instrumentation.
During this period, he was also responsible for promoting NDT
(Non- Destructive Testing instrument ) to different sectors like
DMRC, IITs, NITs, CPWD, PWD , Irrigation Department etc.
Shri Swatantra Kumar currently working as Asstt. General
Manager at M/s. Aimil Ltd. New Delhi, heads the Delhi
Regional Team and he is instrumental in promoting state-of-art
instrumentation across the country and also involved in bringing
about various system improvements within the company. He is
also responsible for providing technical support to Aimil users
in India and neighboring countries like Nepal, Bhutan, Srilanka,Bangladesh etc.
He has been serving IRC in the capacity of Council Member for
the last 5 years. He has been an active member of Instrumentation
Committee (G-5) of the Indian Roads Congress.
Shri Swatantra Kumar has been elected as Vice-President of the
Indian Roads Congress during its 73rd Annual Session held at
Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) in January 2013.
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INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013 11
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
Highways Research Station, Chennai has been accredited with the ISO-9001-2008 Certication. The Salient Features
and facilities available with them as informed by HRS are as under:
Exclusive Training Facility available for Highway Engineers
Well Equipped Library with Rare Publications, Technical Journals
Research Activities on Highway Engineering using latest Techniques, Sophisticated Equipments
Eight Regional Laboratories with Sophisticated Equipments
For more details please Contact Shri E.L. Satyamoorthi, Chief Engineer (H), QA&R, Highways Research Station,Chennai – 25, Ph No: 044- 22354851, Fax No: 044- 22354852, Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
The Institution of Engineers (India), Roorkee Local Centre will be organizing a Workshop on “Ground Improvement
Techniques for Difcult Ground Conditions” on 16th April 2013 at IIT Roorkee. Noted speakers from IIT Roorkee
and Ground Improvement Industry are going to deliver expert lectures. For registration please contact Dr. Satyendra
Mittal, (Convenor, Workshop), Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Uttarakhand,
Tele. + 91 11 01332-285837, Mobile + 91 9760014237, 9412074237; E-mail: [email protected].
CONCRETE LABORATORY
Key Features
Testing of Concrete Materials Mix Design
Testing of Steel
Destructive & Non DestructiveTesting
Condition Assessment of Bridges.
Facilities
Universal Testing Machine
Compression Testing Machine
PUNDIT/Ultrasonic test
Rebound Hammer
Half Cell Potentiometer
Load Testing facility for Bridges
Heavy Duty Test Floor
SOILS LABORATORY
Key Features
Pavement Design
Road Rehabilitation studies
Ground Improvement Techniques
Pavement Materials Testing
Sub Soil Exploration Pile Load Tests
Design mixes
Structural Evaluation
Facilities
Digital CBR
Digital Consolidation Apparatus
Digital LVDT for pile load testing
Geogauge
Electrical Density Gauge
TRAFFIC LABORATORY
Key Features Functional Evaluation
Axle Load Survey Travel Time Study
Junction Improvement Study
Surface Conditioning Assessment Various studies to reduce Accidents Traffic Improvement Techniques
Facilities
Portable Axle Weigh Pad
Hand held Roughometer Speed Meter
ROMDAS
Advanced Data Collection Equipment
BITUMEN LABORATORY
Key Features
Tests on Bitumen & Aggregate
Mix Design for Pavements
Evaluation of value added products –Modified Bitumen, Modified BitumenEmulsion
Failure Studies Bituminous Mix Characterisation
Facilities
Rotational Viscometer
Dynamic Shear Rheometer
Universal Testing Machine – HYD25-II
Beam Fatigue Apparatus
Gyratory Compactor
Laboratory Model Circular Test Track.
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TECHNICAL PAPERS
12 INDIAN HIGHWAYS, MARCH 2013
ABSTRACT
Project risk is the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain
occurrences adversely affecting project objectives. Project risk
management is the art and science of identifying, assessing and
responding to project risk throughout the life of a project and in
the best interests of its objectives.
The constant goal of project risk management should be to move
uncertainty away from risk and towards opportunity. The goals
of risk management, therefore, are to identify project risks and to
develop strategies, which either reduce them or attempt to avoid
them.
An infrastructure development is more prone to risks than
ordinary industrial projects. Risks consequently, have the ability
to adversely affect the implementation of a highway project.
A successful highway project development and project nance
transaction is therefore, the suitable identication, allocation and
management of risks.
The successful implementation of a project, it is essential that
person involved in its Implementation whether engineers, lawyers,
legislators, executives bankers or civil servants be sensitive to the
risk-involved in the project and formulate most suitable structure
for the management of such risks. If the persons involved in the
implementation of a project are able to identify the risks regarding
a proposed project and the means of its adequate allocation andreddressal or better more sensitive to the necessity of their adequate
mitigation, it would go a long way in enabling the implementation
of highway projects.
1 INTRODUCTION
Risks are nothing more than the variables or
circumstances associated with the implementation of
a specic project that has the potential to adversely
affect the development of a project, Risks include
circumstances or situation, the existence or occurrenceof which, will in all reasonable foresight, result in an
adverse impact on any aspect of the implementation
of the project.
IMPERATIVE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN HIGHWAY PROJECTS
DR . I NDRASEN SINGH* PRALHAD K ABRA** AND A NAND K ULKARNI**
In projects management terms the most serious effects
of risk can be summarised as follows:
a) Failure to keep within the cost estimate
b) Failure to achieve the required completion date
c) Failure to achieve the required quality and
operation requirements
In highway construction projects risks are related to
various aspects such as the contractor’s ability, design,technology, political and socio-economic environment
etc. Moreover the impact of the risk varies from project
to project depending upon the size of the project (its
physical size, nancial value, resources involved),
the level of the novelty involved in the projects, the
level of involvement of the number of agencies and
the complexity of the projects.
Risk management is the process of recognising risk,
assessing it and managing it.
The rst and the most important step in attempting to
deal with exposure to risk is to identify them which
is called Risk identication. Many decision makers
believe that the principal benets of risk management
come from the identication rather than the analysis
stage
The tools and techniques for risk identication
include documentation reviews, information gathering
methods, checklists, assumption and SWOT ( Strength,
Weakness, Opportunities and Threat) analysis, and
any appropriate diagramming techniques.
* Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Punjab,
E-mail: [email protected]
** Former PGP: ACM Students, NICMAR Goa.
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Structural reviews and methods of team participation,
through brainstorming etc, and the use of checklists,
owcharts, cause and effect diagrams, etc. to help
identify risks are the core of this transformation step.
The outputs include the identication of all risks,
what are likely to be the conditions under which they
will occur, and if the risk identication process has
identied further investigation of risk related matters
in other knowledge areas ( scope, time, cost, etc).
Where it is true that most projects contain a number of
reasonably standard and recognisable risk situations,
each new project requires careful and individual
consideration.
2 RISK IDENTIFICATION PHASE
In the construction of any project, risk identication is
done on the basis of:
a) Experience with similar projects
b) Depth of knowledge and
c) Unique project environment
The study of risk of the project in terms of the total
cost of the project has been divided under four cost
centers that are:
a) Technical
b) Financial
c) Socio-political
d) Statutory
3 RISK IDENTIFICATION PROCESS
The process of risk identication for any construction
project involves two steps:
a) Project Review
b) Determination of Scope
3.1 Project Review
Project review is carried for all construction projects
before implementation. With respect to the case study
of project review involves:
a) Estimation of risks as well as their absolute
parameters
b) It calls for technical and nancial scrutiny of
proposal and assessing the degree of each risk
at each project phase.
c) It establishes the conditions that make the
project workable with environment
d) It must also identify and assess the other
hidden factors that are elements, situations orcircumstances that inuence the project but that
can be unknown in the beginning or imply a
risk to the project.
e) Project review is a continuous process dening
the critical parameters, which need to be
controlled and monitored throughout the project
life cycle analysis.
3.2 Determination of Scope of the Project
Collection of data regarding various risks inuencing
the project is now assessed in terms of degree of impact
thus dening the scope of the project. Experience on
past projects is a major source of risk impact.
Three major sources of experience can be summarized
as follows:
a) Corporate
This is a knowledge gained in the previous
projects, which is dispersed throughout theorganisation. The information may be stored
as personnel memories, diverse reports or as
database that compares plans and outcomes.
b) Project Team
This is sample of the corporate experience
possessed by the individuals within the
particular project team. Often such knowledge
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is very relevant although it might be limited
and possibly biased.
c) External
May be other projects from outside world fromwhich relevant lessons could be learnt.
4 RISKS IN PROJECTS
Risks in projects are many and varied. The
identication, assessment and valuation of risks are
difcult and indispensable tasks in the analysis of
bids and contracts. Depending upon their nature, risks
can be categorised as technology risk, design and
latent defect risk, completion risk, cost overrun risk,
trafc revenue risk, operation risk, demand risk, debt
servicing risk, legal risk, political risk, partnering risk,
regulatory risk, nancial risk, environmental risk and
physical risk. These risks can be dealt by a number
of ways. They may be priced in the bid, insured, or
assumed by the contractor, the owner or both.
4.1 Check List for Projects
Long term contractual relationships inevitably involve
risk. Careful design of contracts and regulatoryarrangements can help both reduce the level of risks
and ensure that any remaining risks fall on the party
that is capable enough to manage them. These issues
are taken up in more detail and all the key risks are
incorporated in the form of checklist.
i) Who is responsible for construction risk?
* Who is responsible for delays in
construction and higher than expected
construction costs?
* What is the scope of the construction
work and of the specications for project
infrastructure? Is there an annex for this
information?
* What is the mechanism for changing the
specications?
* What warranties will be provided relating
to the construction?
* What completion and testing procedures
will be used?
* What is the timetable for construction?
* Are their restrictions on subcontracting
with third parties for nancing or
construction?
* Who will be responsible for site surveys,
ground and geotechnical investigations.
Utility surveys, land issues and
environmental surveys?
* Who will be the project manager?
* What are the development risk?
* Who will nance construction cost
overruns, and what assurances will
lenders have that the funds will be
available when required?
* Are their joint and several completion
liabilities amongst the construction
contractors, equipment suppliers and
subcontractors?
* Who will monitor the construction,
approve the contractor invoices, and
provide commissioning and completion
certicates?
* Will planning approvals be required?
Who is responsible for obtaining planning
approvals and permits?
* Will the construction contract include
contractor incentives?
* What percentage of the total project
value will be required to secure with a
performance bond?
* What are the obligations and
responsibilities relating to capital
expenditure for major water and sewerage
facilities?
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ii) What are the political risks?
* How stable is the country?
* Will export credit agencies give
guarantees against political risk? * Is insurance available?
iii) What are the revenue risks?
* How secure is the cash ow?
* Willingness by users to pay for facility?
* If the government provides support for
the project. What form will that support
take?
* Minimum revenue guarantees orundertakings.
* Standby equity or subordinated debt to
meet revenue shortfalls.
* Tax privileges
* Duty exemptions for imports of capital
equipment.
* Assurances on the liability of foreign
exchange and the exchange rate with
foreign currencies relevant to the project,free transfer of funds or interest rate
guarantees.
* Capital grants and loans. Lines of credit,
or letters of credit.
* What are the legal and administrative
mechanisms required, for the government
to provide this additional support?
* Will the government provide a guarantee
for a minimum amount of new works per year, including any additional
government revenue sources required to
complete these works?
* Who will be responsible for paying
penalties for noncompliance with
environmental regulations in the event
of deterioration? How are penalties to be
determined? What are the payment terms?
Is there a grace period for payment?
Under what conditions may the regulator
waive or allow a delay in payment?
* Will the developer maintain segregated
debt service accounts for principal and
interest payments?
* What type of sponsor guarantee will
the arrangement require a construction
completion guarantee, performance
guarantee, debt service guarantee for
senior bonds or loans, shareholder loan
guarantee?
iv) What are the regulatory risks? * Is there an independent regulator?
* What limits are placed on the regulator’s
discretion?
* What are the procedures for appealing
regulatory decisions?
* What compensation or cost pass through
arrangements are there to safeguard
the developer from shifts in regulatory
ground rules?
4.2 Risk Analysis & the Simulation Approach
Risk analysis is essentially method of dealing with the
problem of uncertainty. Uncertainty usually affects
most of the variables that one combines to obtain
analysis of cost estimates, an economic rate of return
or net present value, analysis of nancial return, or any
of the other indicators that may be used to evaluate
feasibility report. Sometimes one deal with this
uncertainty by combining values for all input variables,chosen in such a way that they yield a conservative
estimate for the result of the analysis. In other cases
one may select the best estimate value, that is, the
value that one thinks most likely to be achieved. Both
these solutions imply a decision: rstly, to look at the
project with a conservative eye, secondly, to disregard
the consequences of any variations around the best
estimate value. Both can lead to biased decisions.
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For example, if one combines only conservative
estimates of variables, nal result is likely to be “over
conservative”. On the other hand by using only best
estimate values one fails to take into account the other
values of the variables that might result in substantialvariations in the estimates. Thus biasing ones decision
on a single value of the decision variable one may by
taking more risk than one intend to. The purpose of
risk analysis is to eliminate the need for restricting
one’s judgement to a single optimistic, pessimistic or
“best” evaluation by carrying throughout the analysis
a complete judgement on the possible range of each
variable and on the likelihood of each value within this
range. At each step of the analysis these judgements are
combined at the same time as the variables themselves
are combined. As a result the product of the analysis
is not just a single value of the decision variable but a
judgement on the possible range the decision variable
around this value, and a judgement on the likelihood
of each value in range.
These judgements take the form of probability
distribution. That is to say each possible value of each
variable is associated with a number between 0 and 1,
such that for each variable the sum of all these numbers
or probabilities is equal to 1. These probabilities,which are called subjective probabilities because
they present some degree of subjective judgement,
follow all rules or traditional probability theory. From
a mathematical point of view risk analysis therefore
consists of aggregating probabilities.
The idea underlying the Monte Carlo technique is
simple. When we say that a project has a 30 percent
chance of earning a 10 percent return, we mean that if
we had a large number of similar projects we would
accept about 30 percent of them to earn a 10 percent
return. Conversely, if we had a great number of projects
and if 30 percent of them earn a 10 percent return, we
could say that the probability of a 10 percent return is
30 percent. Hence the simplest application of the Monte
Carlo technique is to build a great number of projects
with the characteristics of one we are interested in and
see how many of them earn a 10 percent, 15 percent,
20 percent, etc. In practice, the value of each of the
uncertain variables is chosen by random selection,
and the rate of return or some other decision variable
is computed for the project dened by these values.
The process is repeated many times and the resultsare statistically analyzed. The only difculty is in
making sure that the distribution of the values of each
of the input variables as it emerges from the random
selection is consistent with the distribution for that
variable chosen for the analysis.
5 EVALUATION OF RISK
Cooke and Slack (1984) investigated the process
of evaluation of risks. According to them, the risk
inherent in any of the decision option can be a result
of the decision maker’s inability to predict or estimate
the outcomes or the internal effects of the decision
options within the organisation or the environmental
conditions, prevailing after the decision. The range of
possible outcomes conveniently describes whatever
the source of risk is.
There are many methods of evaluation of risk from
the most simple probability concepts to the most
complex utility functions and expert system. Probablythe earliest industrial use of risk methods was with
PERT/RISK, which originally referred to the variation
of estimates of the activity duration, and assuming
their independence, was used to calculate the probable
variations of duration. For instance, Corporate at
use the various probability of interdependence as
exemplied by network analysis can be overcome by
simulation.
5.1 Probability Concepts
The likelihood of something happening is usually
quantied either as a probability gure or as asset of
odds. The various methods based on this concept are:
a) The Classical Method
b) The Relative Frequency Method
c) The Subjective Method
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d) The Bayesian Decision Method
5.1.1 The Classical Method
It is the oldest and the simplest approach. In this
theory, the probability is based on equal chances of
events happening.
5.1.2 The Relative Frequency Method
If the event is something which is easily repeatable or
occurs frequently of it’s own across. The likelihood of
the event occurring may be deducted by examining its
previous history. This method of deriving probabilities
is called the relative frequency method.
Both of the above methods can only be used to forecast
events that are repeatable or repealing. But many
management decisions involve assessing the chance of
something happening which has not happened before
and possible will not happen again i.e. risk event.
5.1.3 The Subjective Method
This method of probability is based on subjective
judgements of experts in the eld no matter how
soundly it is based on their experiences. Especially for
risk analysis, most of the information will be qualied
in the form of subjective data only and such methods
become essential to quantify the risks.
5.2 The Bayesian Theory
This theory was evolved by the British mathematician
Thomas Bayes (1763) involving the estimation of
unknown probabilities and making decisions on the
basis of new (sample) information. The Bayesian
approach employs both personal judgement andempirical evidence and it has been used in the
modeling of the probable activity duration overruns in
the Fuzzy set model.
5.3 Decision Matrix
A decision matrix is a method of modeling straight
forward decisions under uncertainty in such a way
as to make explicit the options open to the decision
maker, the state of the nature pertinent to the decision
and the decision rule used to choose between the
options.
In fact a number of decision rules have been commonly
put forward as being helpful in understanding the
nature of the decision. The four decision rules are:
a) The Optimistic Decision Rule
b) The Pessimistic Decision Rule
c) The Regret Decision Rule
d) The Expected Value Decision Rule
5.3.1 The Optimistic Decision Rule
This approach to select the preferred option is to
consider all possible circumstances and choose option
that yields the best possible outcome. If dealing with
costs, this rule sometimes called as the minimum cost
rule and if dealing with revenues it is called as the
maximum revenue rule.
5.3.2 The Pessimistic Decision Rule
A decision maker who took the very optimisticview to the once described above would follow the
reverse procedure in this case. Each option would be
examined and the worst possible outcome for that
option identied. That option would be selected which
provides the best of the worst outcomes.
5.3.3 The Regret Decision Rule
This is based on a deceptively simple but extremely
useful question i.e. “If one decides on one particular
option then with lined sight how much would he regretnot having chosen what turns out to be the best option
for a particular set of circumstances?”
Disadvantages of Regret Decision Rule
If the alternative chosen is the one that gives the
least cause for regret when compared with another
alternative, then the degree of regret will depend on
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the other options considered. This can cause logical
inconsistency.
5.3.4 The Expected Value Decision Rule
All the above three-decision rule do not consider the
potentially most useful factors within any management
decisions. This is the expert’s estimate of the likelihood
of a particular decision occurring. The principle of
expectation “weights” each outcome by the likelihood
of its occurring. The expected values are merely an
indication of the worth of each option.
5.4 Decision Trees
One limitation of the decision model is the simplisticways in which it treats the option open to the manager.
Many management decision in reality are a series of
reality sequential decisions, where choices made at
one point in time can change the probability of their
decision happening or alter their consequences. The
decision tree format enable sequential decisions to be
represented and the consequences of future decision
to be treated back of assess their inuences on the
present decisions. In fact, a decision matrix can be
represented as a decision tree.
5.5 Risk Simulation
Risk simulation is a technique that allows a more
sophisticated approach to modeling the uncontrollable
factors that inuence the outcome of the decision. By
making continuous probability estimates for each
controllable factor the technique produces decision
outcomes that are also continuous probability
functions. This gives a much clearer picture of the
spread of outcomes possible than the decision tree
model that produces single-gure expected values.
This technique that was originally described by Hertz
can be briey summarized as follows:
i) Choose the uncontrollable exogenous variables
(risk factors), which are considered to have a
signicant bearing on the decision.
ii) For each variable, estimate the probability
distribution, which most clearly reects the
decision maker’s degree of belief as to the
likelihood of the variable taking any value.
iii) Choose the endogenous variable, the measure
of outcome, which will be used to evaluate
the options, for example, the probable mean
distribution.
iv) Determine the functions, which relate the
uncontrollable exogenous variables to the
endogenous variables.
v) Randomly the function, which relates the
uncontrollable exogenous variables to the
endogenous variables.
vi) Repeat step (v) many times until a distribution
of the values for the endogenous variables is
formed.
Simulation technique especially the Monte Carlo is
widely used in risk analysis and evaluation. But it has
the disadvantage that, it requires mainframe computers
such as OPSS etc. It is expensive to use.
Simulation methods to date have suffered from
excessive detail. Their lack of concern for external
effects and their general limitation of one dimension
being extrapolated to others, e.g. time to cost.
5.6 The Utility Theory
An attempt was made by David Bernoulli in 1738
to quantify individual’s emotions about money or
individuals’ value system. However, it was not until
1944 that a formal mathematical theory was set
forth by Yon Neuman and Morgenstern to describe,
in a quantitative sense, a decision maker’s attitude
and feelings about money. Their theory becomes the
modem utility theory.
The concept of utility is psychologically oriented
and refers to subjective satisfaction derived by an
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individual from the possession of a given number of
units of a particular commodity. The utility theory
referred to herein is often thought of as a concept for
measuring the attitudes of an individuals (decision
maker) towards risk and uncertainty. The theory
rst enunciates certain axioms obeyed by a rational
man and the show that these lead to the existence of
a preference ordering or utility function ‘IT which
satises the following properties:
1. ‘U’ is dened as the set of all possible
outcomes
2. Outcome ‘X’ is preferred to outcomes ‘Y’ if
and if U (X) > U (V)
3. A decision giving chances T of achieving
outcomes ‘X’ (I < 1 < n) is preferred to
one giving chances q of achieving outcomes
Y (I < j < n)
Where probability = q = I if and only if
PU(X) > q U (Y)
Property (2) shows that a utility function ranks the
outcome in the preference order while property (3)shows that one set of probabilistic outcomes i.e.
preferred to another if and only if it has a higher
expected utility. It follows from this property that
a rational man ill always act so as to maximise his
expected utility.
5.7 Expert System
A lot of research is being done on articial intelligence
and expert systems. Specically one of the most
sophisticated models that can be developed for risk
management is making use of knowledge-based
systems or human-computer cooperative systems.
This system is designed to assist the project managers
in achieving more effective control over risks by
providing them with appropriate knowledge, gathered
from many project managers and compiled into
a knowledge-base. It is designed to warn project
managers of risks that may follow etc. While doing
this, the logical thinking and the intuitive thinking of
the managers is accounted for in the system.
5.8 Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)
The analytical hierarchical process was originally
developed by Saaty (1980). It provides a exible
and easily understandable process to analyze project
risks. It provides a promising alternative in complex
situations involving a multi-criteria decision making
methodology. It has structured approach to decision-
making that eliminates much of the guesswork and
confusion or ordinary methods of synthesizing anoverall explanation for a system. It organises the
basic rationality by breaking down the problem
into it’s smaller constituent parts and then guide
the decision maker through a series of pair-wise
comparison judgements (which are documented and
can be re-examines) to express the relative strength
or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy.
These judgements are then translated into numbers.
The AHP includes procedures and principles used to
derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for
alternative solution.
6 RISK ANALYSES
The model used for the analysis of the risks that
have been identied with the case under study is
the analytical Hierarchical Process. The model
and its process have been described in this paper.
Implementation of integrated Road development
programme in the city of Kolhapur on BOT basis has
been taken as a case study of risk analysis.
6.1 Analytical Hierarchical Process Model
(AHP)
The analytical hierarchical process was originally
developed by Saaty (1980) is a multi-criteria decision
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making methodology. It allows the decision maker to
set priorities and make choices on the basis of their
objectives, knowledge and experience consistent
with their intuitive thought process. It fulls the
requirements for an executive decision system
where decision makers can structure a system and its
environment into mutually interacting parts and then
synthesize them by measuring and ranking the impact
of these parts of the entire system.
A conventional approach to risk analysis suffers two
major limitations:
a) It requires detailed qualitative information that
is not normally available at the project planning
stage.
b) The problems are ill dened due to subjective
nature, which leads to imprecise decision during
their applicability.
The deductive as well as systems approach of AHP
within an integrated, logical framework removes these
limitations and makes the understanding of complex
situations simpler. The structured approach to decisionmaking eliminates much of the guesswork.
AHP has been applied successfully to a wide variety
of problems over then past several years that include
Architecture (Satty and Erdcnncr, 1979), Conict
Resolution (Gholam Nezhad 1983 and 1984)
Predictions (Saatyy and Gholam – Nezhad 1982
Ciholam - Nczhad 1985)
The AHP uses a hierarchical approach where the
problem is decomposed into a number of interrelated
factors and then arranged in a hierarchical order.
The number of levels in the hierarchy depends on
the complexity of the problem as well as the degree
of detail needed to solve the problem. Each factor is
evaluated with respected to the other related factors.
Once the problem has been structured, expert judgments
are solicited from the decision maker relating to each
fact of the problem. The methodology foes not require
any numerical guess. The degree of importance of the
elements at a particular level with respect to those in
the immediate upper level is judged by the decision
maker and measured by a procedure of pair wise
comparisons repeated for all elements at each level.
The ultimate goal of doing this is assign numerical
values to the subjective judgements on the relative
importance of each element with values varying from
one to nine. The pair wise comparison scale used for
the risk analysis of the project under study is given
in Table 1. This is also the fundamental scale of AHP
and consists of numbers (one to nine) associated
with intensities of importance or preference. This
methodology has been shown to provide remarkably
accurate results. The consistency of judgement in any
decision making process is vital because of its impact
on the quality of decision.
Unfortunately, lack of inconsistency is expected to
exist in almost any set of the pair wise comparison.
The consistency of pair wise judgements is measured
in AHP from the Consistency Ratio (CR):
CR = CI/RI
Where,
CI = Consistency Index
RI = Random Index
Consistency Index, CI = ( λ max – n) (n – I)
Where,
λ max = large eigen value
n = ran of the matrix
The Random Index is given in Table 2.
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Table 1 Pair wise Comparison Scale
Intensity of
Importance
Defnition Explanation
1 Equal Importance Two elements contribute equally to the Property2 Moderate importance of one
over another
Experience and Judgment slightly favour one element over
another
5 Essential or strong importance Experience and judgement slightly favour one element over
another
7 Very strong importance An element is strongly favoured and its dominance is
demonstrated practice
9 Extreme importance The evidence favouring one element over another is of the
highest possible order of afrmation
2,4,6,8 Intermediate Value When compromise is needed
Table 2 Random Index Table
N Random Index
1 0.00
2 0.00
3 0.58
4 0.90
5 1.12
6 1.24
7 1.32
8 1.41
9 1.45
10 1.49
6.1.1 Steps of Analytical Hierarchical Process
The following are the steps to be taken in formulating
the risk-analysis model Analytical Hierarchical
Process:
Step 1: The scope of the total project is classied
through the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The
whole project is classied into manageable work
packages in accordance with the similarities of
activities. Risk analysis is considered separately for
the various packages. In the project under study as
risks pertaining to cost overruns are being studied; the
entire project cost is divided into four cost centers.
Step 2: In this step, identication of risk factors and
sub-factors is done for specic work packages and the
establishment of a hierarchical risk structure from the
package concerned. Various techniques, ranging form
simple interviews and the application of the analyst’s
own experience to the Delphi technique, can be used
for the identication of risk factors and sub-factors.
Thus, the risk factors relating to each cost center are
determined and an AHP model is developed. This
model has been shown subsequently.
Step 3: The relative weights of the various risk factors
are determined by pair v comparison according to the
severity of risk on the basis of questionnaire lled
experienced project managers and planning engineers.
The scale of giving weightages has already been
shown in Table 1. This creates a detailed analysis of
the ranking the risk factors for the cost centers under
consideration with respect to the severity of risk.
Step 4: the level of likelihood of each factor is
determined with respect to high medium and low
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risk. The risks having probability more than six are
considered to be high risks, those with probability
from one to six are considered to be medium risks and
those with less than one are considered as low risks.
Step 5: The likelihood of the levels of risk are
synthesized and determined in this step. The
likelihood’s of high, medium and low total are
determined by aggregating the relative weights
through the hierarchy.
Step 6: A sensitivity analysis is carried out. The
outcome of the analysis above is dependent on the
hierarchy established by the management, and the
relative judgements made about the elements of
the problems. Changes in the hierarchy may lead to
change in the outcome. The effect of the change can
be examined through the sensitivity analysis.
Step 7: The overall risk of the cost centers is
determined. The likelihood levels of risk and the
weights of different levels of risk are combined to
determine the overall risk of all cost centers.
Step 8: The cost centers are ranked in accordance
with the risk probability and severity. The result from
the determination of the overall risks of cost centers
are used to ranks the cost centers with respect to their
risks.
The results of the Analytical Hierarchical Process for
the risks affecting the cost overruns of the project
under study are given in Table 3.
Table 3 Risk Identifed in Various Stages by Using AHP
Sl.
No
Stages of Project Risk Identifed in various stages Likeli-
hood
(L)
Seve-
rity
(S)
Chance
of
detec-
tion (D)
Weigh-
tages
(W)
Risk
Number
= L*S*
D*W
Percent
Risk
Share
1 Preconstruction Reliability of TOR 1 10 3 0.68 20.40
2 Risk of getting the clearance approved 1 10 3 0.68 20.40
3 Reliability of the DPR 1 8 1 0.68 5.44
46.24 0.48
4 Client team Type of client 3 5 3 0.68 30.60
5 Change in requirement 5 5 5 0.68 85.00
6 Delay in decision & approach 5 5 5 0.68 85.00
7 Change in Government policy 3 5 3 0.68 30.60
8 Interpretation of the requirements 3 8 3 0.68 48.96
280.16 2.90
9 Design team Experience of the team 3 10 3 1.58 142.20
10 Faulty design 1 10 3 1.58 47.40
11 Continuity of the team 1 2 3 1.58 9.4812 Level of design information 3 5 5 1.58 118.50
13 Practicality of the design 1 10 1 1.58 15.80
333.38 3.45
14 Construction Scope of the Project 3 10 1 2.26 67.80
15 Deviation in site parameters 3 10 3 2.26 203.40
16 Location 3 10 3 2.26 203.40
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Sl.
No
Stages of Project Risk Identifed in various stages Likeli-
hood
(L)
Seve-
rity
(S)
Chance
of
detec-
tion (D)
Weigh-
tages
(W)
Risk
Number
= L*S*
D*W
Percent
Risk
Share
17 Access Problem 5 5 1 2.26 56.5018 Legal restrictions 5 10 1 2.26 113.00
19 Contaminated 1 5 1 2.26 11.30
20 Occupies 5 5 1 2.26 56.50
21 Noise abatement 5 5 1 2.26 56.50
22 Time overruns 5 5 5 2.26 282.50
23 Fixed price 8 2 3 2.26 108.48
24 Performance & nancial 3 5 3 2.26 101.70
25 Dispute 8 8 5 2.26 723.20
26 Ability to carry out construction 3 10 3 2.26 203.40
27 Testing 5 8 3 2.26 271.20
2628.3 27.19
28 Geological Presence of faults 8 10 1.58 379.20
29 Weak foundation 5 8 1 1.58 63.20
30 Water table 5 8 5 1.58 316.00
31 Earthquake 5 10 5 1.58 395.00
1153.4 11.93
32 Environment Loss of ora 8 10 3 1.58 379.20
33 Loss of fertile 8 10 3 1.58 379.20
34 Rehabilitation 10 10 5 1.58 690.00
35 Radiation damage 0 - - 1.58 00.00
36 Damage due to 0 - - 1.58 00.00
1584.4 16.02
37 Fuel Non availability 3 10 5 1.13 169.50
38 Floods 5 10 5 1.1. 282.50
452.00 4.68
39 Contractual Form of contract 1 5 1 0.68 3.40
40 Type of tender 3 5 1 0.68 10.20
41 Claims 8 8 3 0.68 130.56
42 Arbitration 5 8 5 0.68 136.00
280.16 2.90
43 Financial Delay in 5 5 5 1.13 141.25
44 Delay in 5 5 5 1.13 141.25
45 Restrictions on cash Flows 3 2 3 1.13 20.34
46 Ination rate 5 5 5 1.13 141.25
47 Exchange rate risk 5 5 5 1.13 141.25
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Sl.
No
Stages of Project Risk Identifed in various stages Likeli-
hood
(L)
Seve-
rity
(S)
Chance
of
detec-
tion (D)
Weigh-
tages
(W)
Risk
Number
= L*S*
D*W
Percent
Risk
Share
48 Inability of the contractor to pay 8 10 3 1.13 271.2049 Tax Implications 1 5 8 1.13 45.20
50 Repatriation of prots 1 5 8 1.13 45.20
946.94 9.80
51 Political & regulatory Risk 3 8 5 0.68 81.60
52 Conict between government bodies 5 8 5 0.68 136.00
53 Inadequacy of legal frame work 1 8 3 0.68 16.32
54 Risk of change in legal & regulatory
environment
1 10 5 0.68 34.00
55 Price setting policy 3 5 3 0.68 30.60
56 Enforceability of contracts 3 8 3 0.68 48.96
347.48 3.59
57 Operation Risk Number & performance of sub
contractors
3 5 3 2.27 102.15
58 Defective works 3 10 3 2.27 204.30
59 Hidden problems 3 10 5 2.27 340.50
60 Force majeure 1 10 10 2.27 227.00
61 Materials & Plant availability 1 10 3 2.27 68.10
62 Risk of maintaining the load factor 3 8 3 2.27 163.44
63 Bankruptcy of sub contractor 3 5 1 2.27 34.05
64 Variations in change orders 3 5 5 2.27 170.25
65 Risk of failure of structure 3 10 5 2.27 340.50
1650.29 17.06
Total 9666.83 100
6.1.2 Risks Identifed by the Analytical Hierarchical
Process Model
Total estimated cost is divided into four components
as given below:
Where,
T1 = Design or Specication Risk
T2 = Material Risk
T3 = Equipment Risk
T4 = Cash Flow Risk
F2 = Price Escalation Risk
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F3 = Ination Risk
F4 = Payment to Contractor Risk
P1 = Legal Risk
P2 = Accidents Risk
P3 = Non Performance by the Contractor Risk
S1 = Clearance Risk
S2 = Change in Local Laws Risk
S3 = Disapproval of Pans Risk
6.1.3 Advantages of Analytical Hierarchical Process
The observed advantages of AHP are as following:
i) It divides the complete project into controllable
work packages through the work breakdown
structure.
ii) It classies the various sources of risk associated
with the work packages
iii) It identies risk factors and sub-factors and
their hierarchical order.
iv) It determines the contributions of specic
risk to time and cost overruns and too Non-
conformance to quality standards
v) It enables the management to control high-risk
work packages by the use of a highly competent
team.
vi) It helps in formulating contract strategy.
vii) It creates a condence about project
achievement.
viii) It extends valuable support for the project’s
participating agencies in the decision making
process.
6.1.4 Result of AHP on Project under Study
Table 4 shows of cost centers on the basis of impact
due to the risks leading to cost overruns.
Table 4 Ranking of Risk Causing Cost Overruns, as
Obtained from the Analytical Hierarchical Process
Cost centers Rank
Financial 1
Statutory 2
Technical 3
Socio-Political 4
7 CONCLUSION
In today’s rapidly growing Highway projects, the
quantum of risk has also increased considerably.
Highway projects involve various types of risks
such as Construction risk, Operation & Maintenance
risk, Political risk, Revenue risk and Regulatory
risk. Various stages of project like Gestation stage,Development stage, Construction and Start up stage
and Operational stage involves different types of
risks.
For analyzing these risks there are various methods
available which are as follows:
● Evaluation of Risk
● Probability Concepts
● Decision Trees
● Decision Matrix
● Risk Simulation
● The Utility Theory
● Expert system
● Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)
In project management terms the most serious effect
of risk can be summarized:
a) Failure to keep within the cost estimate b) Failure to achieve the required completion date
c) Failure to achieve the required quality and
operational requirements.
As far as rating agencies role is concerned. A
scientically graded project would lend itself to a
more accurate and reliable estimate of risks associated
with the infrastructure project.
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8 RECOMMENDATIONS
● Before signing the contract agreement, all the
parties should study all the areas where there is
possibility of involvement of risk.
● The contractor should be well versed with thesite conditions before signing the contract.
● Proper nance should be arranged before the
start of the project.
● The uses of new technologies and construction
methods would reduce the time of construction.
This will reduce the project completion risk.
● By forming joint ventures with strong parties,
the risk involved will be distributed evenly.
REFERENCES
1. Ramakrishnan R (January 2004), Construction Journal of
India, 8-11
2. Laxton (1996) ‘Guide to Risk Analysis & Management’,
Oxford Butterworth-Heinemann, Jorden Hill.
3. Prasanna Chandra (2002), ‘Financial Managers, Tata
McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi,
Sensitivity analysis, RA.
4. CODE (October 2003), ‘Risk Management in Construction
Projects’, Publication Bureau, NICMAR Pune.
5. Construction World, Vol. 7 No. 11, August 2005.
6. Prasanna Chandra (2002) Projects, Tata McGraw-Hill
Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi.
7. Prasanna Chandra (2001), ‘Financial Management’, Tata
McGraw-Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi.
8. Chris Chapman and Stephen Ward (1997), Project Risk
Management’, John Willey & sons, New York.
9. Singh, Indrasen, “Risk Management in Contracts”
Seminar on Urban Infrastructure Renewal – Challenges,
Impediments & Solutions, CIDC, India Habitat Centre,
New Delhi, January 31, 2008.
10. Singh, Indrasen, “Risk Management on Public Private
Participation in Highway Project”, a National Seminar
o