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Indicator Relationships for Regression CalculationsPresented by David Hoekema
Surface Water Methodology Technical Working Group
Date: February 19, 2015
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
How well to Box Canyon Springs and Spring Creek represent water supply conditions for the TFCC?
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
Cumulative Change in Volume of Water Stored Within ESPA
Water Budget Volume Change Annual
Cu
mu
lati
ve S
tora
ge
Ch
ang
e (a
cre-
feet
)
1952 – 2013 ≈ 11,230,000 AF total removed from storage1952 – 2013 ≈ 184,000 AF/yr average removed from storage
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
Box Canyon and Aquifer Storage ChangeComparison (1951-2013) r² = 0.91
Cumulative Change in Aquifer Storage Box Canyon Average Annual Discharge
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
qu
ifer
Vo
lum
e C
han
ge
[ac-
ft]
Ave
rag
e D
isch
arg
e B
ox
Can
yon
[cf
s]
Box Canyon Correlates Well to Change in ESPA Storage
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
Spring Creek Correlates Well Reach Gains
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Spring Creek and Reach Gains (r² = 0.713)
Reach Gain Spring Creek
Rea
ch G
ain
s [c
fs]
Sp
rin
g C
reek
[cf
s]
Spring Creek Correlates better with ESPA Storage Change for 1991-2014 Period
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
r = 0.77
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408
Jan-
11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep-1
1
Nov-1
1
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-1
2
Nov-1
2
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-1
40
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4305
4307
4309
4311
4313
4315
4317
4319
Monthly Average Spring Flow and Groundwater Depth
Spring Creek Wells
Sp
rin
g C
reek
Flo
w [
cfs]
Gro
un
dw
ater
Ele
vati
on
[ft
]
Settlement Document Subject to I.R.E. 408