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Indicators for policy support of Indicators for policy support of atmosphere related environmental problemsatmosphere related environmental problems
Robert Koelemeijer
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
ETC - Air and Climate Change
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 2
ContentsContents
Indicators + examples• Stratospheric ozone• Air pollution • Climate change
Present status of indicators
How do/can satellite observations contribute to indicators
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 3
Indicators: DPSIR Indicators: DPSIR
Indicators:• used to analyse developments• measure distance-to-target
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 4
Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone
Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances (EEA31)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
millio
n O
DP
kg
Methyl bromide
HCFCsHalons
CFCs, Carbon tetrachloride, Methyl chloroform
Policy objective (Montreal protocol) :
phase-out use of ozone depleting substances
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 5
Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone
Averaged ozone column over Europe for March
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
year
Do
bso
n U
nit
s
State indicators:• Concentrations CFCs, HCFCs, Halons: ground-based data• Ozone column density: TOMS, GOME, ...
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 6
Stratospheric ozoneStratospheric ozone
• Monitoring ozone layer from space is a success story:– total column density is the relevant quantity
– accuracy sufficient (few %)
– continuity of observations OK
• Future observations needed:– will ozone layer recover?
– interaction with climate change?
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 7
Air qualityAir quality
• Ground based networks (EMEP, Airbase)– Components: O3, NO, NO2, VOCs, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, toxics,
heavy metals (Pb, Ni, Cd, As, Hg), ...
– Sites: street / urban background / rural background
– Accuracy depends on component. Typically 5-30% for single measurement.
– Some of the drawbacks:
• necessarily limited density of stations
• different network design per country
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 8
Concentration NOConcentration NO2 2 (794 Airbase stations)(794 Airbase stations)
NO2 annual mean
0
20
40
60
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
ug
/m3)
street
urban
rural
EU limit value
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 10
GOME observations: tropospheric NO2GOME observations: tropospheric NO2
Image courtesy KNMI
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 11
ATSR-2: aerosols over landATSR-2: aerosols over land
Image courtesy TNO-FEL
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 12
MODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlationMODIS AOD - PM2.5 correlation
Kittaka et al., 84th AMS conference
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 13
Air pollutionAir pollution
• Synergy between ground-based and satellite observations could be further explored
Satellite measurements
ModelAssimilation
Ground-based measurements
Emissions Concentrations(analysis &
forecast)
Depositions
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 14
Air pollutionAir pollution
Satellites should
• sample boundary layer small pixel size (~10x10 km2) required– look between clouds – resolve source areas
• priority species: – PM10 and PM2.5 – Ozone (ground-level and tropospheric column (CC))
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 15
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Kyoto-monitoring:• emissions estimated through “activity” approach
(emission = activity x emission factor)• reporting guidelines fixed (IPCC)• same method for all years (1990 - 2012)
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 16
GHG inverse modellingGHG inverse modelling
• Inverse modelling of satellite observations of CO2
and CH4 might give useful constraints on sources and sinks. But research has only started recently.
• Some bottlenecks:– Data availability (Mopitt?, Sciamachy?, NASA/OCO)
– Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions are rather well known (< 10%). Inverse modelling will constrain locations and strengths of natural sources and sinks.
– Constraining anthropogenic CH4 seems better feasible: shorter lifetime, anthropogenic emissions less well known and of similar magnitude as natural emissions.
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 17
Other forcings and feedbacks Other forcings and feedbacks
• Climate change policy heavily depends on science (IPCC): current effects are only minor compared to future.
• Model validation necessary to improve projections– Greenhouse gases – Aerosols (land & ocean)– Clouds
• Aerosols and tropospheric O3 (precursors) not in Kyoto protocol, but monitoring these are important both for climate change and air quality.
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 18
• State and impact indicators for Europe have been developed recently by ETC-ACC. – Temperature, precipitation, extremes– Cryosphere (snow cover, glaciers, Arctic sea ice)– Marine system (sea level, SST, marine growing season,
shifts in species distribution)– Ecosystems and biodiversity– Public health (tick borne diseases, heat-waves)
• Non-atmospheric satellite measurements used for CC State & Impact indicators: e.g., detection of changes Arctic sea-ice and snow cover.
Need for long-term satellite observational records
State + impact indicatorsState + impact indicators
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 19
Climate changeClimate change
Arctic Sea-ice Extent anomaly since 1973
Source: IPCC, 2001
20-1-2004 Atm. Chem. Appl. Workshop, ESTEC 20
ConclusionsConclusions
• Ozone layer: monitoring from space is a success story: sufficient accuracy for long-term ozone trend detection and long-term continuity assured
• Air quality: assessments may improve through synergy between ground-based and satellite measurements
• Climate change: inverse modelling of ground- and satellite observations may constrain CO2 and CH4 sources & sinks. Research recently started. But unlikely to improve anthropogenic CO2 emission inventories.
• Indicators are only part of the story. Scientific progress (model validation, constraining natural fluxes, etc) is crucial to improve projections.