INDUS BASIN CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES(Perspective from India)
Shakil A RomshooDept. of Earth Sciences
Kashmir University
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
A FEW THOUGHTS
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE
STREAMFLOW CHANGES
HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT
GROUNDWATER SCENARIO
LAND SYSTEM CHANGES
COMMON CONCERNS
• INDICATORS of CC are loud and clear in the UIB
• We have lost ~ 20% of the GLACIAL MASS during
last 5-6 decades in the UIB
• Significant DECLINE IN THE STREAMFLOWS
since 1990s due to the depletion of cryosphere
• SHIFTING hydrograph peaks, change in the FORM
of precipitation and LOW STORAGE CAPACITY are
a CONCERN.
• USAGE OF WATER entitled under IWT is under-
utilized mainly due to the land system changes &
topographic constraints
• GW over-exploitation is an important concern in
the LIB
A few Thoughts….
• Huge Hydropower Development in the UIB
• Implications of depleting cryosphere under changing
climate on water, energy and food security are far-
reaching in the Indus basin
• How much water is stored in the Indus cryosphere?
• Lack of Data Sharing in the basin
• Water issues if not understood in the right perspective
have potential to COMPLICATE THE SOUTH
ASIAN SECURITY
• SCIENCE should guide public policy/ planning &
diplomacy (ENV/Water sharing/CC adaptation)
A few thought….
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Av
era
ge_T
em
pera
ture
(0C
)
Average Temperature (Dec. & Jan.) DISCHARGE
RAINSSNOW
Contribution of Snow and Ice
Western River StationsApproximate
Contribution of
Snow and Ice
Period
Annual
Inflows
(MAF)
Ice and
Snow
Contrib.
(MAF)
Indus at Tarbela 85%
1961-
2013 60.72 51.6
Kabul at Nowshera 75%
1961-
2013 21.65 16.2
Jhelum at Mangla 65%
1961-
2013 22.20 14.4
Chenab at Marala 50%
1961-
2013 25.36 12.7
Western Rivers Average Inflows 129.93 MAF
Total Western Rivers Snow and
Ice Contribution 95.0 MAF
Total Contribution of Snow and
Ice in Western Rivers73.1 % 12
STREAMFLOW PARTITIONING
Snow melt Glacier melt Rainfall
54.83% 6.14% 38.03%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
% Snowfall
Rainfall
Snow Precipitation = ~ 52%
Liquid Precipitation = ~48%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1971-801981-901991-002001-102011-13
Dic
har
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Year)
Aru Spring
Summer
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Year)
Sheshnag Summer
Spring
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
BatkootSpring
Summer
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
Akura Spring
Summer
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Axi
s Ti
tle
Axis Title
Kirkadal Spring
Summer
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-13
Dis
char
ge(C
use
cs)
Time Period(Years)
Gur Spring
Summer
Summer and Spring Streamflow
Modelling streamflows under Changing Climate
Snowfall Percentage
Snowmelt Contribution
Baseline 2050s 2070s
~52%~40.4
%~41.1%
2050s 2070s
~18.5% ~19%
Baseline 2050s 2070s
~52% ~38% ~35%
2050s 2070s
~23% ~31%
Baselin
e2050s 2070s
~52% ~34% ~29%
2050s 2070s
~31% ~44%
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
UNPUBLISHED WORK
BCC CSM1-1 BNU ESM GFDL CM3 INM CM4 IPSL CM5A-LR MIROC5 CGM3 NorESM1-M
• Rapid Economic Development
• Staggering Population Growth
• Thirsty farms
Depletion of 1 ft of GW annually equivalent to
109 Cubic Km of GW disappeared between 2002-08
COMMON CONCERNS
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS
SHRINKING CRYOSPHERE AND DEPLETING
STREAMFLOWS
DEPLETING GW RESOURCES
CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF HP PROJECTS
WATER USE EFFICIENCY
FLOOD VUNERABILITY
EFFICIENT DATA SHARING
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS