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Industrial Commission Update June 20, 2019 Justin J. Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Industrial Commission Update
June 20, 2019
Justin J. KringstadGeological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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Statewide Initial Oil Production Rates – 24hr
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Bakken/Three Forks Initial Production Rate: 24hr
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4,000+ BOPD 24hr Initial Production Rates
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Statewide Gas Performance
JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 5Average BKN/TF Well Performance Statewide
~12% Improvement
Over 2017
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Statewide Initial Gas Production Rate: 24hr
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Bakken and Three Forks Gas Performance
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)
*Month “0” is a partial month with daily production calculated using “Days on production”. Months 1+ use calendar days to calculate daily rate.
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Top 20 IP Rates (Oil)Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) Timeline
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Impact of ESP on Production ProfilesWell: SIBYL USA 44-19TFH (Mountrail County)
*Month “0” is a partial month with daily production calculated using “Days on production”. Months 1+ use calendar days to calculate daily rate.
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Impact of ESP on Production ProfilesAdditional Examples
*Month “0” is a partial month with daily production calculated using “Days on production”. Months 1+ use calendar days to calculate daily rate.
Well File: 32012 Well File: 33942
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High Initial Production (IP) Scenarios
“Typical” type curve used as a
comparison example for how
high IP wells may perform
over time.
In this example, the entire
production curve over time is
uplifted relative to a “typical”
well. Well economics and
EUR are both improved.
In this example, only the early
life of the well is higher
relative to a “typical” well.
Early well economics improve,
but uncertainty exists if EUR
will improve or suffer with the
high IP rate.
In this example, the early life
of the well is higher relative to
a “typical” well. Early well
economics improve along with
an incremental EUR
improvement.
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Oil IP Bin Comparison
*Month “0” is a partial month with daily production calculated using “Days on production”. Months 1+ use calendar days to calculate daily rate.
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Oil IP Bin Comparison
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Oil IP Bin Comparison – “Clean”
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Oil IP Bin Comparison – “Clean”
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Economic Incentive to Higher IP RatesExample: Payout Period Using $7 million well cost
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Economic Incentive to Higher IP RatesExample: Rate of Return Using $7 million well cost
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Economic Incentive to Higher IP RatesExample: Breakeven Pricing Using $7 million well cost
Cushing $56.74
Brent $64.23WTI + $7.49
Crude Oil Prices – June 20, 2019
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Pricing Data: Bloomberg &
CME (LLS-Argus)Houston WTIWTI + $6.81
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North Dakota Oil Pricing
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US Crude Oil Storage Volumes and Spot Prices
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EIA Forecasted Oil Price
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North Dakota Oil Production Forecast Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Major Oil Transmission Systems
Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPDAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should
not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Exact DAPL Expansion Timeline(s) Unavailable
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Upcoming or
Recent Plant
Expansion
WBI Transmission
Andeavor
Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure
WBI Energy – North Bakken Expansion Project
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Project Highlights
• 67 Miles - 20” Pipeline
• 19 Miles - 12” Pipeline
• $220+ Million
• 250,000 MCFD Capacity (expandable)
• Expandable to 375,000 MCFD
• End of 2021 Proposed Completion
• Residue Gas Service From North of
Lake Sakakawea to Northern Border
Pipeline in McKenzie County
WBI Energy – North
Bakken Expansion Project
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Project Highlights
• 67 Miles - 20” Pipeline
• 19 Miles - 12” Pipeline
• $220+ Million
• 250,000 MCFD Capacity (expandable)
• Expandable to 375,000 MCFD
• End of 2021 Proposed Completion
• Residue Gas Service From North of
Lake Sakakawea to Northern Border
Pipeline in McKenzie County
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Northern Border Pipeline
*Data Source: Northern Border IPS
• 42” Pipeline
• Carries Canadian (Port of Morgan) and Domestic Gas
• Receives Gas From ND Plants, WBI Transmission Interconnections, and WY Pipelines (Bison & Grasslands)
• Midcontinent Deliveries
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Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND
gas production could increase 0.82-1.12 BCFD (from April-19) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken
production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.
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Northern Border Proposed Expansion Options
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Two Proposed Options:
Stateline/Watford City to Ventura
-580 Mdth Incremental (~525 MMCFD)
-Phase 1: Q3 2021
-Phase 2: Q4 2023
Stateline/Watford City to Cheyenne
-430 Mdth Incremental (~390 MMCFD)
-Phase 1: Q3 2021
-Phase 2: Q4 2022
Simplified Example NB CalculationsConclusion: IF no other gas export options open and all other deliveries on other pipelines stay static, ND
gas production could increase 0.82-1.12 BCFD (from April-19) before Northern Border is 100% Bakken
production. BTU management becomes increasingly important for Bakken residue gas.
• Gas Plants With C2+ Capture
~1,010+ BTU Residue Gas
• Gas Plants With C3+ Capture
~1,150+ BTU Residue Gas
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Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure
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Regional NGL Infrastructure
Kinder
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North Dakota Captured* NGL’s
4141JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 41*Non-flared NGL’s & Assumes 10 GPM
NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options
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ONEOK Elk Creek NGL Pipeline
Project Highlights
• 900 Miles - 20” Pipeline
• $1.4 Billion
• 240,000 BPD Capacity
• Expandable to 400,000
BPD
• End of 2019 Proposed
Completion
• Y-Grade Transportation
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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: [email protected]
Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov
www.northdakotapipelines.com
Contact Information
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