Industrial risk: main issues(Scira Menoni, Politecnico di Milano)

A relevant problem of planning is that everything has to be done so quickly .…

My experience is that the overall time of design and implementation is shorter if there is enough time to think to the entire project

(M. Andersson, Swedish Railway Adm.)

Air pollution/toxic cloud

Groundwater contamination/toxic release

Accidents menacing people, houses, infrastructures

Contamination of neighborhoods, rural areas…

Chemical riskChemical risk

Severe accident

* Sudden* Acute effects* Explosion/fires/release * Accident during hazmat transportation

Contamination

* Delayed* Long term effects* Chronic/degenerative effects

Contamination risk: Contamination risk: epidemiological studiesepidemiological studies

Hazard

* Toxic substances

* Context conditions must be considered: geological, metereological…

Exposure and vulnerability

* Exposure factors

* Individual susceptibility (cancerogenic markers)

Reference legislation in the EUReference legislation in the EU

1. Seveso Directive II: 96/82/CEE

2. Seveso Directive III: 2003/105/EC

3. D.lgs 334/1999 eD.lgs 238/2005

4. DM 151, 9/5/2001

Seveso Directive II: 96/82/CEE e DGL 334/1999;Seveso Directive II: 96/82/CEE e DGL 334/1999;Seveso Directive III: Seveso Directive III: 2003/105/EC 2003/105/EC e e Dlgs 238/2005Dlgs 238/2005

• Safety management and policy in the firm

• Control over land uses• Right to be informed• External emergency plan

Classification of plantsClassification of plants

* Plants subject to safety report

* Plants subject to notification only

Difference between probabilistic risk analysis and scenario approach

Probabilistic risk analysis R= H* V*E

Scenarios:choosing a specific event and its characteristics

1

D = f( y, V) d(y)

0

HAZARD INPUT

Hazard Vulnerabity

Risk

P1 P2 P3

A way to bring scenario approaches closer to probabilistic risk assessment

(PRA)

HAZARD INPUT

HAZARD INPUT

HAZARD INPUT

Hazard analysis:Hazard analysis:

- probability of each - probability of each scenario;scenario;

- Analysis of types of - Analysis of types of failures in the plantfailures in the plant

- Chain of failures- Chain of failures

Vulnerability assessment:Vulnerability assessment:

-Other plants (domino effects);Other plants (domino effects);

- lifelines (domino effects);lifelines (domino effects);

- transportation networks;transportation networks;

Vulnerability assessment:Vulnerability assessment:

- - Public buildings;Public buildings;

- Dwellings;- Dwellings;

- Population- Population

Differences between Seveso I and IIDifferences between Seveso I and II

Seveso I• Need to make

hazardous installations safer (inspection, technical devices)

• Internal emergency plan

• Citizens’ right to Citizens’ right to knowknow

Seveso II Seveso 1 +• Safety policy in the

plant• Focus from inside to

outside:- Domino effects;- Land use planning- External

emergencyplants

and: hazmat transportation. A future directive?and: hazmat transportation. A future directive?

7.000450.000

8.000.000

60.000135.000

10.000

850.000

2.200

550.000

2,5

5.700.000

1.500.000

0

1.000.000

2.000.000

3.000.000

4.000.000

5.000.000

6.000.000

7.000.000

8.000.000

ADR 1 ADR 2 ADR 3 ADR4.1

ADR4.2

ADR4.3

ADR5.1

ADR5.2

ADR6.1

ADR6.2

ADR 8 ADR 9

Quantità (t/a) movimentate per Classe Adr

And last but not least: brownfield cleaning And last but not least: brownfield cleaning up (DM 447/1999)up (DM 447/1999)