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Employment Projections Overview 2012-22
Erin LaneEconomist
Employment Projections ProgramNAF Industry Panel
7/10/2014
Employment Projections Background
10-year projections made every 2 years
2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries
BLS projections prepared at the national level only
2
Employment Projections Products
Occupational Outlook Handbook
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation
Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more
3
Employment Projections Process
Labor ForceTotal and by
age, sex, race and ethnicity
Aggregate EconomyGDP, total
employment, and major demand
categoriesOccupation
al Employmen
t
Job openings due to growth & replacement
needs
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses,
government, and foreigners
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage &
salary employment
Industry OutputUse and Make Relationships,
Total Requirements Tables
Population
Labor force participation rate trends
Demographics Fiscal policy
Foreign economies Energy prices Monetary policy
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio analyses
Staff expertise
Replacement rates
Economic censuses
Annual economic surveys
Other data sources
Industry output
Sector wage rates
Technological change
Input-Output Tables
4
Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected
2012-22
Health care and social assistance Professional and business services
Construction Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade State and local government
Financial activities Educational services
Other services Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing Mining
Utilities Information
Federal government Manufacturing
4,994.1
3,482.8
1,622.1
1,289.2
1,090.9
929.0
751.0
675.3
648.9
470.4
327.3
121.2
-56.4
-65.2
-407.5
-549.55
Thousands of wage and salary jobs
Service providing
Goods producing
Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected
2012-22
Health care and social assistance Construction
Educational services Professional and business services
Mining Other services
Financial activities Leisure and hospitality
Wholesale trade Transportation and warehousing
Retail trade State and local government
Information Manufacturing
Utilities Federal government
2.6%
2.6%
1.9%
1.8%
1.4%1.0%
0.9%0.9%
0.8%
0.7%0.7%
0.5%
-0.2%
-0.5%
-1.1%
-1.6%6
Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment
Service providingGoods producing
Total nonagricultura
l wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%
Employment Outlook: 2012-22
Occupational Employment
7
Percent Change vs. Numeric Change
8
Audiologists
Retail salespersons
33.6%
9.8%
Percent employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22
Audiologists
Retail salespersons
4.3
434.7
Numeric employment growth in two occupations, projected 2012-22, in thousands
Percent Change in Employment
by Major Occupational Group
Healthcare support
Healthcare practitioners and technical
Construction and extraction
Personal care and service
Computer and mathematical
Community and social service
Business and financial operations
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
Education, training, and library
Legal
Life, physical, and social science
28.1%
21.5%
21.4%
20.9%
18.0%
17.2%
12.5%
12.5%
11.1%
10.7%
10.1%9
Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%
Employment Change by Major Occupational
GroupHealthcare practitioners and technical
Office and administrative support
Construction and extraction
Healthcare support
Personal care and service
Food preparation and serving related
Sales and related
Education, training, and library
Business and financial operations
Transportation and material moving
Building and grounds cleaning and main-tenance
1,732.9
1,534.0
1,301.9
1,155.8
1,122.9
1,101.8
1,095.5
1,015.8
898.1
790.6
691.0
10
Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22
Fastest Growing Occupations
11
Percent change, projected 2012-22
Median annual wages, May 2012
$83,580
$19,910
$20,820
$39,170
$45,430
$65,860
$28,220
$53,240
$56,800
$52,160
Industrial-organizational psychologists
Personal care aides
Home health aides
Insulation workers, mechanical
Interpreters and translators
Diagnostic medical sonographersHelpers--brickmasons, blockmasons,
stonemasons, and tile and marble set-ters
Occupational therapy assistants
Genetic counselors
Physical therapist assistants
53.4%
48.8%
48.5%
46.7%
46.1%
46.0%
43.0%
42.6%
41.2%
41.0%
Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations
12
Percent change, projected 2012-22
Median annual wages, May 2012
$20,820
$65,860
$53,240
$56,800
$52,160
$23,880
$90,930
$26,850
$79,860
$62,670
Home health aides
Diagnostic medical sonographers
Occupational therapy assistants
Genetic counselors
Physical therapist assistants
Physical therapist aides
Physician assistants
Occupational therapy aides
Physical therapists
Orthotists and prosthetists
48.5%
46.0%
42.6%
41.2%
41.0%
40.1%
38.4%
36.2%
36.0%
35.5%
Median annual wages, May 2012
$19,910
$65,470
$21,110
$20,820
$18,260
$24,420
$32,410
$30,580
$22,320
$29,990
Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22
Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Personal care aides
Registered nurses
Retail salespersons
Home health aides
Combined food preparation and serv-ing workers, including fast food
Nursing assistantsSecretaries and administrative assis-tants, except legal, medical, and ex-
ecutiveCustomer service representatives
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners
Construction laborers
580.8
526.8
434.7
424.2
421.9
312.2
307.8
298.7
280.0
259.8
13
Education and Training Classification
14
Consists of three categories of information for each occupation:
Typical education needed for entry
Work experience in a related occupation
Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation
Education and Training Classification
15
Assignments to each category based on analysis by BLS analysts
Quantitative research American Community Survey (ACS)
data O*NET data National Center for Education
Statistics (NCES) data Qualitative research
Interviews with occupational experts
Median annual wages, May 2012
$96,420
$63,400
$67,140
$57,590
$34,760
$28,730
$35,170
$20,110
Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category: 2012
16
Doctoral or professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Postsecondary non-degree award
Some college, no degree
High school diploma or equivalent
Less than high school
4,002.4
2,432.2
26,033.0
5,954.9
8,554.2
1,987.2
58,264.4
38,127.6
Thousands of jobs
Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education
Category
Doctoral or professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Postsecondary non-degree award
Some college, no degree
High school diploma or equiva-lent
Less than high school
16.0%
18.4%
12.1%
17.6%
15.6%
11.3%
7.9%
10.9%
17
Percent change, projected 2012-22Average, all occupations = 10.8%
Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education
Category
Doctoral or professional degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Postsecondary non-degree award
Some college, no degree
High school diploma or equivalent
Less than high school
638.4
448.5
3,143.6
1,046.0
1,337.1
225.0
4,630.8
4,158.4
18
Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22
Education and Training: Top 10 fastest-growing healthcare
occupations
19
Occupation Title
Percent
Change
2012-22
Median annual wage, 2012
Typical education needed for entry
Typical on-the-job training needed
Home health aides 48.5 $20,820 Less than high school Short-term on-the-job training
Diagnostic medical sonographers 46.0 $65,860 Associate's degree None
Occupational therapy assistants 42.6 $53,240 Associate's degree None
Genetic counselors 41.2 $56,800 Master's degree None
Physical therapist assistants 41.0 $52,160 Associate's degree None
Physical therapist aides 40.1 $23,880 High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training
Physician assistants 38.4 $90,930 Master's degree None
Occupational therapy aides 36.2 $26,850 High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training
Physical therapists 36.0 $79,860 Doctoral or professional degree None
Orthotists and prosthetists 35.5 $62,670 Master's degree Internship/residency
Education and Training: Top 10 Healthcare Occupations with the
largest job growth
20
Occupation TitleJob openings due to growth and replacement needs,
2012-22, in thousands
Median annual wage, 2012
Typical education needed for
entry
Typical on-the-job training needed
Registered nurses 1,052.6 $65,470Associate's
degreeNone
Nursing assistants 593.6 $24,420Postsecondary
non-degree award
None
Home health aides 590.7 $20,820Less than high
schoolShort-term on-the-
job training
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 363.1 $41,540
Postsecondary non-degree
awardNone
Medical assistants 269.9 $29,370Postsecondary
non-degree award
None
Physicians and surgeons, all other 152.6 >=$187,200Doctoral or professional
degree
Internship/residency
Dental assistants 137.2 $34,500Postsecondary
non-degree award
None
Physical therapists 123.7 $79,860Doctoral or professional
degreeNone
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 120.6 $31,020
Postsecondary non-degree
awardNone
Dental hygienists 113.5 $70,210Associate's
degreeNone
Typical entry-level education, Healthcare
21
Associate's Degree19%
Bachelor's Degree11%
Doctoral or Pro-fessional Degree
25%
High School Diploma or Equivalent
16%
Less than high school1%
Master's Degree11%
Postsecondary non-degree award
15%
Typical Entry-level Education, Healthcare Occupations
Typical on-the-job training, Healthcare
22
63%11%
5%
1%
19%
Typical On-The-Job Training, Healthcare Occupations
None
Short-term on-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job train-ing
Internship/residency
Education Pays
23
Employment Outlook: 2012-22
Resources for Additional Information
24
Occupational Outlook Handbook
25
www.bls.gov/ooh
Occupational Outlook Quarterly
26
www.bls.gov/ooq
Employment Projections Program
27
www.bls.gov/emp
Useful Employment Projections Sites
28
Technical documentation of Employment Projections program methods and data
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_tech_documentation.htm
Other Employment Projections program publications, including past Monthly Labor Review articles
http://www.bls.gov/emp/publications.htm
Frequently asked questions
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm
Contact Information
Erin LaneEconomist
Employment Projections Programwww.bls.gov/emp