Home >Documents >Inflation and economic growth projection of Narodowy Bank ... · PDF file Jan.20 Feb.20 Mar.20...

Inflation and economic growth projection of Narodowy Bank ... · PDF file Jan.20 Feb.20 Mar.20...

Date post:24-Jul-2020
Category:
View:0 times
Download:0 times
Share this document with a friend
Transcript:
  • Economic Analysis Department

    Warsaw / 17th July 2020

    Inflation and economic growth projection

    of Narodowy Bank Polski

    based on the NECMOD model

  • Outline:

    Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Epidemic vs economy

    Projection 2020 – 2022

    ▪ Economic condtions

    abroad

    ▪ Foreign trade

    ▪ Labour market

    ▪ Consumption demand

    ▪ Investment demand

    ▪ GDP

    ▪ Inflation

    Uncertainty

    2

    1 Epidemic vs economy

    2 Projection 2020 - 2022

    3 Uncertainty

    Outline

  • Outline:

    Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Epidemic vs economy

    Projection 2020 – 2022

    ▪ Economic condtions

    abroad

    ▪ Foreign trade

    ▪ Labour market

    ▪ Consumption demand

    ▪ Investment demand

    ▪ GDP

    ▪ Inflation

    Uncertainty

    3

    Epidemic vs economy

  • Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Epidemic results in the profound slowdown in economic activity.

    4

    Source: GUS, Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetycze data, Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej, meteomodel.pl, Google LLC, StalExport Autostrady S.A, NBP calculations.

    Change in annual electric energy consumption* (Monday – Friday, 8-16 o’clock, %)

    -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

    F eb

    .2 0

    M ar

    .2 0

    A pr

    .2 0

    M ay

    .2 0

    Ju n.

    20

    30 M

    ar -0

    3 A

    pr

    06 A

    pr -1

    0 A

    pr

    13 A

    pr -1

    7 A

    pr

    20 A

    pr -2

    4 A

    pr

    27 A

    pr -0

    1 M

    ay

    04 M

    ay -0

    8 M

    ay

    11 M

    ay -1

    5 M

    ay

    18 M

    ay -2

    2 M

    ay

    25 M

    ay -2

    9 M

    ay

    01 J

    un -0

    5 Ju

    n

    08 J

    un -1

    2 Ju

    n

    15 J

    un -1

    9 Ju

    n

    22 J

    un -2

    6 Ju

    n

    29 J

    un -0

    3 Ju

    l

    * Data corrected for meteorological and callendar effects

    Change in population traffic relative to typical values in selected locations

    (moving average)

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    15 F

    eb

    22 F

    eb

    29 F

    eb

    07 M

    ar

    14 M

    ar

    21 M

    ar

    28 M

    ar

    04 A

    pr

    11 A

    pr

    18 A

    pr

    25 A

    pr

    02 M

    ay

    09 M

    ay

    16 M

    ay

    23 M

    ay

    30 M

    ay

    06 J

    un

    13 J

    un

    20 J

    un

    27 J

    un

    Trade and entertainment (shopping centers, restaurants, cinemas)

    Grocery stores and pharmacies

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    03 F

    eb -0

    9 F

    eb

    10 F

    eb -1

    6 F

    eb

    17 F

    eb -2

    3 F

    eb

    24 F

    eb -0

    1 M

    ar

    02 M

    ar -0

    8 M

    ar

    09 M

    ar -1

    5 M

    ar

    16 M

    ar -2

    2 M

    ar

    23 M

    ar -2

    9 M

    ar

    30 M

    ar -0

    5 A

    pr

    06 A

    pr -1

    2 A

    pr

    13 A

    pr -1

    9 A

    pr

    20 A

    pr -2

    6 A

    pr

    27 A

    pr -0

    3 M

    ay

    04 M

    ay -1

    0 M

    ay

    11 M

    ay -1

    7 M

    ay

    18 M

    ay -2

    4 M

    ay

    25 M

    ay -3

    1 M

    ay

    01 J

    un -0

    7 Ju

    n

    08 J

    un -1

    4 Ju

    n

    15 J

    un -2

    1 Ju

    n

    22 J

    un -2

    8 Ju

    n

    29 J

    un -0

    5 Ju

    l

    cars trucks

    Change in vehicle traffic on A4 highway Katowice – Kraków (%, y/y) Total retail sale and a sector with the deepest fall (constant prices, y/y)

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    -80

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    20 06

    20 07

    20 08

    20 09

    20 10

    20 11

    20 12

    20 13

    20 14

    20 15

    20 16

    20 17

    20 18

    20 19

    20 20

    total textiles, clothing

  • Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Substantial fall in foreign demand and supply network disruptions.

    5

    Source: OECD, Univercity of Oxford, GUS, IHS Markit, NBP calculations.

    GDP growth in 2020Q1 (%, q/q, Y axis) vs average OSI level

    Industrial production

    -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    20 17

    .0 6

    20 17

    .0 8

    20 17

    .1 0

    20 17

    .1 2

    20 18

    .0 2

    20 18

    .0 4

    20 18

    .0 6

    20 18

    .0 8

    20 18

    .1 0

    20 18

    .1 2

    20 19

    .0 2

    20 19

    .0 4

    20 19

    .0 6

    20 19

    .0 8

    20 19

    .1 0

    20 19

    .1 2

    20 20

    .0 2

    20 20

    .0 4

    growth y/y (RHS) index 2015=100 s.a.

    Production in export and non-export sectors (01.2014 = 100, s.a.)

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Export Non-export

    France

    Germany

    Italy

    Korea

    Poland

    Slovakia

    Spain

    Sweden

    USA

    China

    Hong Kong

    -12

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    0 10 20 30 40 50

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    Suppliers' Delivery Times Index

    Stocks of Purchases Index

    PMI components for Poland – suppliers’ delivery times index and stocks of

    purchases index

  • Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP 6

    Economic growth in Poland plummeted in 2020Q2

    20q1 20q2*

    GDP (y/y) (%) 2.0 (2.9) -10.6 (3.0)

    Domestic demand (y/y) (%) 1.7 (2.9) -11.1 (3.0)

    Household consumption (y/y) (%) 1.2 (3.7) -12.0 (3.8)

    Public consumption (y/y) (%) 4.3 (3.5) 7.0 (5.0)

    Gross fixed capital form. (y/y) (%) 0.9 (4.2) -18.5 (4.3)

    Exports (y/y) (%) 0.6 (2.9) -22.3 (4.4)

    Imports (y/y) (%) -0.2 (2.8) -24.5 (4.4)

    Net exports contribution (pp.) 0.4 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1)

    Values from the March projection are given in brackets (seasonally adjusted).

    Indicators with values higher than in the March projection are marked green, and indicators with lower values are

    marked red.

    Source: GUS data, NBP calculations.

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    -80

    -70

    -60

    -50

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    pk t

    B al

    an ce

    be tw

    ee n

    th e

    pe rc

    en ta

    ge s

    of

    po si

    tiv e

    an d

    ne ga

    tiv e

    an sw

    er s

    PMI Poland and general business climate indicators (GUS) in manufacturing, construction and trade (s.a.)

    manufacturing construction trade PMI Poland (RHS)

    -16

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    -16

    -12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

    Industrial and constr. production y/y * Retail sales y/y *

    Real wage fund in corporate sector y/y * GDP y/y *

    * Nowcasting for 2020Q2

    * Forecast for 2020Q2

  • Outline:

    Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Epidemic vs economy

    Projection 2020 – 2022

    ▪ Economic condtions

    abroad

    ▪ Foreign trade

    ▪ Labour market

    ▪ Consumption demand

    ▪ Investment demand

    ▪ GDP

    ▪ Inflation

    Uncertainty

    7

    Projection 2020-2022

  • Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Assumptions

    ■ Lack of explicit second wave of epidemic in Europe, although possible temporary

    increases in the numer of newly infected.

    ■ Gradual lifting of restrictions – however part of them will be maintained untill the

    widespread use of vaccine / effective medical treatment.

    ■ Sustained uncertainty and an increase in marginal propensity to save due to

    precautionary motive.

    ■ Gradual phasing out of fiscal programs in 2020Q3.

    8

  • Outline:

    Inflation and economic growth projection of the NBP

    Epidemic vs economy

Click here to load reader

Embed Size (px)
Recommended