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  • 1. Forecast for the UK economy: a comparison of independent forecasts compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Team No. 279 hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts July 2010

2. CONTENTS PageSummary Page: Short-term forecasts 3 Table 1 - 2010: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)4 Table 2 - 2010: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)5 Table 3 - 2010: Growth in other selected variables (% change)6 Table 4 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)7 Table 5 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)8 Table 6 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change)9 Average of independent forecasts for 2010; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment10 Average of independent forecasts for 2010; Current account and PSNB (2010-11) 11 Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment12 Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12) 13 Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2010; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 14 Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2010; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2010-11) made in 15 last 3 months Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 16 Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-12) made in 17 last 3 months Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables18 Annex 2: Data definitions 19 Annex 3: Notation used in tables20 Annex 4: Organisation contact details 21Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasurys own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison. The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be sought from both HM Treasury and the providers of the original data.Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury. Payment of the subscription fee is 75. Cheques should be made payable to HM Treasury Votes Cash Account, and should be sent to Tessa Caruth, Correspondence and Enquiry Unit, 2/W1, HM Treasury, 1 Horse Guards Road, London, SW1A 2HQ. Could fee paying subscribers direct enquiries to Tessa Caruth on 020 7270 4858. Free subscribers should contact Andrew Banks on 020 7270 5404. Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and coordinated by Andrew Johnson. Please direct enquiries on the content of this issue to Andrew Johnson (020 7270 5404, [email protected]).The next edition will be published on 18th August 2010. It will also be available on the Treasurys website: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts. PU797 ISBN: 978-1-84532-674-6 3. FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMYA comparison of independent forecasts, July 2010This edition of the comparison contains 20 new forecasts, all of which were received between July 1st and July 14th2010. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2010 and 2011 and show theaverage of this months new forecasts.Forecasts for 2010 + Independent Average ofAveragesJulynew*JulyJuneLowest HighestforecastsGDP growth (per cent)1.2 1.2 0.9 1.91.2Inflation rate (Q4: per cent) - CPI 2.6 2.6 1.5 3.52.7 - RPI 3.9 3.7 2.4 5.43.9Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)1.60 1.671.40 2.001.58Current account (bn) -21.6 -19.8 -39.3-1.1-24.4PSNB (2010-11: bn) 149.8 156.5 133.7 175.7148.5Forecasts for 2011 Independent+Average ofAveragesJulynew*JulyJuneLowest HighestforecastsGDP growth (per cent)2.1 2.2 1.0 3.21.9Inflation rate (Q4: per cent) - CPI 2.2 1.8 1.1 3.72.4 - RPI 3.4 3.1 2.2 4.73.5Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn)1.64 1.681.23 2.301.66Current account (bn) -18.3 -18.7 -50.1-0.3-20.8PSNB (2011-12: bn) 124.0 131.288.7 165.0123.3 + Independent and City averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months(July: 20 institutions, June: 5 institutions, May: 6 institutions).*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.Note: All the averages exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see notation). Forecasts for the UK economy July 2010 3 4. Table 1 - 2010: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) Net trade contributionChange in inventories Private consumptionDomestic demand Fixed investment Total importsTotal exports consumptionGovernmentForecasters and dates of forecasts(bn) GDPCity forecasters Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jan1.6 -0.3 1.6 0.50.6 f- 3.40.50.7Barclays Capital Jul * 1.30.6 1.7 1.7 -2.71.9 6.68.7 -0.7BNP ParibasJul * 1.40.6 2.5-0.30.32.1 5.27.5-Capital EconomicsJul * 1.00.0 2.0 0.0 -3.71.2 4.55.0-CitigroupJul * 1.41.4 2.6-0.6 -3.42.2 4.87.8 -0.9CommerzbankJul * 1.21.2 1.9 2.2 -4.02.4 3.98.0 -1.2Credit SuisseJun 1.51.0 2.7-3.8 -1.31.7 5.35.3 -0.1Daiwa Capital MarketsMay 1.00.5-0.6-3.7 -1.60.6 4.83.50.4Deutsche BankJul * 1.20.6 2.1-0.30.8 f0.8 3.85.5 -0.6Goldman SachsJun 1.40.0 1.9 0.81.1 f1.8 5.86.7 -0.4HSBC Jul * 1.20.5 2.0-0.71.01.6 4.45.2-ING Financial MarketsApr 1.00.7 1.1-3.7 14.51.0 7.56.90.0J P Morgan Jul * 1.40.3 2.1 2.1 -4.71.8 5.76.7 -0.4Lombard Street Jun 1.6 -0.2 1.8 1.82.51.9 7.37.9 -0.4Morgan Stanley Jul * 1.00.4 1.2-0.9 -1.11.6 4.86.5 -0.6Nomura Jul * 1.30.8 1.8 4.8 -6.32.7 2.66.6 -1.2RBC Capital MarketsApr 1.00.4 3.0-1.3 -4.01.5 4.24.8 -0.5RBS Global Banking & Markets Jun 1.00.6 2.2 0.0-1.3 4.05.4 -0.3Schroders Investment ManagementMay 1.30.7 2.1 1.50.72.2 4.98.0 -1.0Societe Generale Jul * 1.30.5 1.7-1.5 -1.11.6 5.05.7 -0.3Standard Chartered BankJul * 1.0 -0.2 0.5-3.60.80.6 1.91.00.7UBSJun 1.51.0 2.3-0.70.41.0 8.67.60.1 Non-City forecasters British Chambers of CommerceJul* 1.30.7 2.6-0.7 -15.2 k 1.6 4.25.9 -0.5Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul* 1.01.6 1.8 1.1-0.1 2.7 4.8 10.7 -2.0Cambridge EconometricsJul* 1.20.4 1.4 0.2-0.8 1.6 4.35.5 -0.4CBI Jul* 1.30.4 1.1-0.6-0.4 1.5 5.35.7 -0.2CEBR May 1.30.3 1.6-1.7-2.0 1.1 7.06.8 k-Economic Perspectives Jul* 1.9 -0.3 0.7 6.5-2.5 1.9 3.93.9 -0.1Experian Business Strategies Mar 1.00.5 1.3 0.5-6.5 1.4 2.53.9 -0.4EIU Jul* 0.9 -0.2 1.7-1.2-3.0 1.1 4.04.1 -0.1IHS Global InsightJul* 1.1 -0.4 2.1 2.8 - 2.1 2.05.7 -1.0ITEM ClubMay 1.00.5 1.7-2.7 1.1 1.2 7.26.6 -0.3Liverpool Macro Research Dec 1.80.8 b 1.1 m 3.3 d - - ---NIESRMay 1.00.3 0.6-2.0-4.0 0.8 9.18.30.0Oxford EconomicsJul* 1.10.6 1.8 2.2-3.4 2.0 2.85.9 -0.9EC May 1.20.6 1.5-0.9 0.8 f 0.6 k 5.25.3 -0.2OECD Nov 1.2 -0.2 3.3-5.2 - 0.3 4.40.90.9IMFApr 1.30.2 - - 0.7 f 0.6 --- Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months Independent1.2 0.51.7 0.1 -1.61.6 5.06.2 -0.5New (marked *) 1.2 0.51.8 0.7 -2.11.8 4.26.1 -0.6City 1.3 0.51.8-0.1 -1.51.7 4.96.2 -0.4 Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months Highest1.91.6 2.7 6.52.52.7 9.1 10.70.7Lowest 0.9 -0.4-0.6-3.8 -6.30.6 1.91.0 -2.0Median 1.20.5 1.8-0.3 -1.31.6 4.85.9 -0.4OBR Jun1.20.2 1.7-0.5 1.2 f 1.6 4.35.6 -0.5 Forecasts for the UK economyJuly 20104 5. Table 2 - 2010: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) Oil price (Brent, $/bbl) Sterling index (Q4)Official Bank rateAverage earnings (Jan 2005=100)RPIX (Q4)CPI (Q4) RPI (Q4) (Q4, %) Forecasters and dates of forecastsM4 City forecastersBank of America - Merrill Lynch Jan2.03.3-1.9 -1.00-- Barclays Capital Jul * 2.94.04.03.7 -0.50-- BNP ParibasJul * 2.74.34.22.6 -0.50-- Capital EconomicsJul * 2.33.84.12.0 k82.10.50 60.02.5 CitigroupJul * 3.44.24.12.580.50.50 77.5- CommerzbankJul * 2.33.53.52.081.80.50 74.83.6 Credit SuisseJun 2.93.94.0- -1.00-- Daiwa Capital MarketsMay 2.63.33.52.076.10.50 79.34.5 Deutsche BankJul * 2.43.4--85.10.50-3.5 Goldman SachsJun 1.84.2-3.584.0 g - 80.0 10.6 g HSBC Jul * 2.83.8-2.8 -0.50-- ING Financial MarketsApr 1.82.5-1.0 -0.50-4.5 J P Morgan Jul * 3.1 k-3.6 k- -0.50-- Lombard Street Jun 2.42.9-3.0 -1.00-3.6 k Morgan Stanley Jul * 2.7 k4.2 k4.2 k1.780.7 g0.50-- Nomura Jul * 2.94.54.31.881.90.75 85.0- RBC Capital MarketsApr 2.02.52.4- -0.50-- RBS Global Banking & Markets Jun 3.55.45.31.578.71.00 79.0- Schroders Investment ManagementMay 2.13.43.42.6 -0.75 k-- Societe Generale Jul * 2.7---82.50.50 80.1- Standard Chartered BankJul * 2.7--- -0.50 82.0- UBSJun 3.14.64.62.3 -0.75--Non-City forecastersBritish Chambers of CommerceJul* 3.45.35.22.8 -0.50 70.0- Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul* 2.02.53.02.479.20.60 77.42.5 Cambridge EconometricsJul* 2.74.03.71.177.00.50 83.2- CBI Jul* 2.84.13.4-80.71.00 79.9- CEBR May 2.32.4-2.677.50.50 79.0- Economic Perspectives Jul* 2.83.83.52.772.01.20 65.07.0 Experian Business Strategies Mar 2.13.53.21.490.01.00 82.9- EIU Jul* 2.74.13.82.481.90.50 80.2- IHS Global InsightJul* 2.63.43.42.2 -0.50 74.84.7 ITEM ClubMay 2.43.62.42.077.50.80 75.03.3 Liverpool Macro Research Dec --1.93.783.0 k --- NIESRMay 2.73.9 h3.22.9 j79.4 k0.75 80.6 n- Oxford EconomicsJul* 2.74.24.12.986.90.50 74.7 11.2 EC May 1.5--1.4 j - --- OECD Nov 1.7 h--- - --- IMFApr 2.7--- - ---Average of forecasts made in the last 3 monthsIndependent2.63.93.82.580.0 0.6 76.74.7 New (marked *) 2.73.93.92.580.9 0.6 76.05.0 City 2.73.94.12.681.0 0.6 77.53.5Range of forecasts made in the last 3 monthsHighest3.55.45.33.786.9 1.2 85.0 11.2 Lowest 1.52.42.41.172.0 0.5 60.02.5 Median 2.73.93.82.580.5 0.5 79.03.6 OBR Jun2.73.7-- -

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