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Inflation projection of the National Bank of Poland based ... · PDF file in the November...

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  • Inflation projection

    of the National Bank of Poland

    based on the NECMOD model

    Economic Institute

    Warsaw, 12 March 2012

  • Overview

    1. March projection compared to November projection

     Changes in the projection

     External environment

     Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    2. Projection

     Projection 2012-2014

    3. Uncertainty

     Risk factors

     Fan charts

  • MARCH PROJECTION COMPARED TO NOVEMBER PROJECTION

     Changes in the projection

     External environment

     Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • March projection compared to November projection: CPI inflation

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    08q1 08q3 09q1 09q3 10q1 10q3 11q1 11q3 12q1 12q3 13q1 13q4

    90% 60% 30% inflation target III 2012 XI 2011

    %

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Decomposition of deviations between March and November projections

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    2011 2012 2013

    Core inflation Food prices

    Energy prices CPI inflation

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • March projection compared to November projection: GDP

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 13q4

    90% 60% 30% III 2012 XI 2011

    %

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Decomposition of deviations between March and November projections

    -0.8

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    -0.8

    -0.6

    -0.4

    -0.2

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    2011 2012 2013

    Private consumption Public consumption

    Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories

    Net exports GDP

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Projection scenario

    March projection:

     Lower economic growth

     A decline in GDP in the euro area

     Appreciation of the zloty exchange rate against its 2011 Q4 level

     Tightening of fiscal policy

    Changes in the projection scenario:

     The euro area again in a recession stage

     A decline of energy and agricultural commodities’ prices on global

    markets due to global economic slowdown

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • External environment

     GDP growth abroad

     Price growth abroad

     Interest rates abroad

     Agricultural commodity price index

     Energy commodity price index

     EUR/USD exchange rate

     Transfers from EU

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Economic growth abroad (lower)

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Inflation abroad (lower)

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    0

    0.5

    1

    1.5

    2

    2.5

    3

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    y/y,%

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Interest rates abroad (lower)

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    %

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Agricultural commodity price index* (lower)

    *Global index of agricultural commodity prices consists of prices of: wheat, pork, beef, poultry, fish, rape oil, sugar, oranges, bananas, and the beverages index

    0.8

    0.9

    1

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    0.8

    0.9

    1

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • Energy commodity price index* (lower)

    *Global index of energy commodity prices consists of: hard coal, crude oil, natural gas

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2

    2.2

    2.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2

    2.2

    2.4

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

    » Risk factors

    » Fan charts

  • USD/EUR exchange rate (weaker EUR against USD)

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.1

    1.2

    1.3

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    05q1 06q1 07q1 08q1 09q1 10q1 11q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 14q4

    XI 2011 III 2012

    PROJECTION

    CHANGES IN THE SCENARIO

    » Changes in the projection

    UNCERTAINTY

    » GDP and its components

    » Labour market

    » External environment

    » Polish economy in 2011 Q4

    » Exchange rate

    » Inflation

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