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Information search in the decision making process1
Dr. phil. Seraphina ZurbriggenCollaboration with Prof. Dr. D. Läge, Dr. D. Hausmann, Dr. S. Christen
1 Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
Information search in the decision making process
2
1Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. (International Encyclopedia of Unified Science, Volume 1, Number 10.) Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
2Gigerenzer G. and Hoffrage U. and Kleinbölting H. (1991). Probabilistic mental models : a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98, pp.506-528.
ecological system of the environment cognitive human systemCue1
Cue2
Cue3
Cue4
„true“ state Judgment of the observer
validity 2
Information search in the decision making process
Lens- Modell, Brunswik 19521
3
Adaptive Toolbox of Gigerenzer et al.
“Models of bounded rationality describe how a judgment or decision is reached (that is, the heuristic processes or proximal mechanisms) rather than merely the outcome of the decision, and they describe the class of environments in which these heuristics will succeed or fail.” (Gigerenzer & Selten, 2001, S. 4)
Gigerenzer & Selten (Eds.) (2001). Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox. MIT Press.
Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Information search in the decision making process
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Organ Donation
Johnson & Goldstein 2003, Science
“If there is a default, do nothing about it”
„Recognition“ Heuristic
Decide in the direction of recognition
Search Rule
Decision Rule
Do you recognize one of them?
Yes
Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. Oxford University Press.
Which city has more inhabitants? Munich or Dortmund?
No/ Yes, both
No further search for information
Search for information
or Guess
Information search in the decision making process
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„Take The Best“-Heuristic (TTB) (non-compensatory, ORDM)
Choose the Cue with the highest validity
Does it discriminate between the two options?
Decide in the direction of the discriminating Cue
Yes
NoSearch Rule
Stopping Rule
Decision Rule
No
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of Bounded Rationality. Psychological Review, 103 (4), 650–669.
Information search in the decision making process
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Do you recognize one of them?
Which city has more inhabitants? Munich or Dortmund?
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search rule Information search in the decision making process
Validity/ discrimination rate–Millionaire Experiment
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search rule Information search in the decision making process
Validity/ discrimination rate–Millionaire Experiment
10
Pfeife rauchende Frauen
gelehrte Frauen
Prostituierte
Nonnen
Als „Blaustrumpf“ bezeichnete man im 18. Jahrhundert verächtlich eine gelehrte Frau, die nicht unbedingt Charme hat. Der Ausdruck wurde um 1750 in England für Frauen geprägt, die in literarischen Zirkeln verkehrten.
search rule Information search in the decision making process
Validity/ discrimination rate–Millionaire Experiment
Results
40% search information according to validity
60% combining validity and discrimination rate
V*D V+D Success (V*D+[1-D]*0.5)
Hausmann, D. (2004). Informationssuche im Entscheidungsprozess. Die Nützlichkeit von Hinweis-Cues und der Anspruch an Urteilssicherheit. Zürich: Zentralstelle der Studentendruckerei.
search rule Information search in the decision making process
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information costs – China Experiment
stopping rule Information search in the decision making process
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4.59
2.38 2.40 2.15 1.98 2.08 1.95 1.75 1.751.53
1.06
0
1
2
3
4
5
mea
n o
f b
ou
gh
t cu
es (
max
. 5)
Number of bought cues
0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2500 3500 5000 US-Dollar
Sum when winning (deciding correctly) = 10‘000 US-Dollar – information costs
information costs – Design China Experiment
stopping rule Information search in the decision making process
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Confidence– Horse Race Experiment
stopping rule Information search in the decision making process
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Symposium Empirische Evidenz zum adaptiven Entscheiden mit einfachen Heuristiken F515
Symposium Empirische Evidenz zum adaptiven Entscheiden mit einfachen Heuristiken F5
Desired Level of Confidence
?
16
84 8381 81 81 80 78 77 76 76 75 74 74 74 73 73 73 71
69 6764
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
N = 21
MDLC = .75
SDDLC = .05
Desired Level of Confidence (= DLC)
Results on Confidence– Horse Race Experiment
stopping rule Information search in the decision making process
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Verification of the desired level of confidence
Models on decision making and their predictions n = 420
Non-K. ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 210 0
V < DLC 210 0
DLC ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 210 0
V < DLC 0 210
Komp. ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 0 210
V < DLC 0 210
stopping rule Information search in the decision making process
Chance ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 105 105
V < DLC 105 105
Amount of correct predictions M = 85%, SD = 13% n = 420
Non-K. ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 210 0
V < DLC 210 0
Komp. ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 0 210
V < DLC 0 210
Chance ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 105 105
V < DLC 105 105
GUS ORDM MRDM
V > GUS 210 0
V < GUS 0 210
Zufall ORDM MRDM
V > GUS 105 105
V < GUS 105 105
results ORDM MRDM
V > DLC 177 33
V < DLC 30 180
Information search in the decision making process
Verification of the desired level of confidence
19
„Take The Best“-Heuristic (TTB) (non-compensatory, ORDM)
Choose the Cue with the highest validity
Does it discriminate between the two options?
Decide in the direction of the discriminating Cue
Yes
NoSearch Rule
Stopping Rule
Decision Rule
Do you know the solution?No
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of Bounded Rationality. Psychological Review, 103 (4), 650–669.
Information search in the decision making process
20
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment
21
+ +
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment
22
Large City Small City
Cue 1 ++++++++++++++++++ - -
Cue 2 ++++++++++++++ - - - - - -
Cue 3 ++++++++++ - - - - - - - - - -
Cue 4 ++++++ - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cue 5 ++ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The occurrence rate ( = xi / N)DR
.18
.42
.50
.42
.18
Hypothesis
+ + - -
OR
.90
.70
.50
.30
.10
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment
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Study 4
Tageszeitung
Parteibüro
Yetchan
Volleyball-Team
Krankenhaus
2 modes of Learning Pairwise vs. monitoring Testing OR Questionnaire
Linienbusse
Ranking the 5 cues according to V, DR, Success and OR
Information search in the decision making process
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Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – results
Modelconform: 55% (p<.05)5 subjects (N=30)
Modelconform: 58% (p<.01)9 subjects (N=30)
Pairwise Learning
Monitoring Learning
25
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Pairwise Learning
Monitoring Learning
Mean Correlation (Fisher Z)
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information China Experiment – results questionnaire
26
ICP Berlin
• Adaptive search rule: Some people do it• a modulating variable of the search order: The Occurrence
Rate • search order depends on the mode of learning
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – facit
27
„Take The Best“-Heuristic (TTB) (non-compensatory, ORDM)
Choose the Cue with the highest validity
Does it discriminate between the two options?
Decide in the direction of the discriminating Cue
Yes
NoSearch Rule
Stopping Rule
Decision Rule
Do you know the solution?No
Gigerenzer, G., & Goldstein, D. G. (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of Bounded Rationality. Psychological Review, 103 (4), 650–669.
Information search in the decision making process
28
ecological system of the environment cognitive human systemCue1
Cue2
Cue3
Cue4
„true“ state Judgment of the observer
ValidityDiscrimination rateOccurence rateStability
Information search in the decision making process
Lens- Modell, Brunswik 1952
29
30
Validity in a dynamic environment – stock market experiment
Information search in the decision making process
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Information search in the decision making process
Validity in a dynamic environment – stock market experiment
32
Theorie: Validität in dynamischer Umwelt – Methode
Information search in the decision making process
33Zurbriggen, S., Christen, S., Hausmann, D. & Läge, D. (in prep.). Informationssuche beim Entscheiden in zeitlich dynamischen Umwelten. AKZ-Forschungsbericht 44, Zürich: Angewandte Kognitionspsychologie.
• In a dynamic environment less information is search for• Some subjects decide entirerly without any new
information• Some subjects prefer the stable cues over the valid
information
Information search in the decision making process
Validity in a dynamic environment – stock market experiment
34
Information search in the decision making process
Validity in a dynamic environment – water experiment with time as a ressource
35
36
• Subjects show essentially a similar pattern in dealing with information, independent of the resource ( money vs. time)
• There is a trend however to search for more information and decide rather risky when time is the ressource
Information search in the decision making process
Validity in a dynamic environment – water experiment with time as a ressource
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Level of confidence
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Value of non-discriminatinginformation
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Level of confidence
Time Relevance
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Level of confidence
Value of non-discriminatinginformation
Conflicting information
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Level of confidence
Time Relevance
Value of non-discriminatinginformation
Revision of the concept of the Adaptive Toolbox
Conflicting information
Level of confidence
Time Relevance
Value of non-discriminatinginformation
Thank you for your attention!
Information search in the decision making process
the value of non-discriminating cue information Design China Experiment – results
OptionA B
Cue with a higher OR
Cue with a lower OR total
Non discriminating - - 92 146 238 + + 54 155 209total 146 301 447
OptionA B
Cue with a higher OR
Cue with a lower OR total
Non discriminating - - 146 88 234 + + 101 112 213total 247 200 447
55% (p<.05)5 subjects (N=30)
58% (p<.01)9 subjects (N=30)
Pairwise Learning
Monitoring Learning
45