Informed about Governor Candidate’s Stands on Issues?

Analysis of Nov 7 2006 ElectionsDan Nataf, Center for the Study of Local Issues, www2.aacc.edu/csli

78428

106145

82159

100403

9008487978

9022690129

89180

9301894392

83217

90368

83119

78440

91399

59905

106970

66463

90967

66807

84603

67422

8148079060

91619

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

Major Races by Party

Dem

Rep


66972

-2254

-28743

-20788

-53215

-27581

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Govr's Races: Dem-Rep Votes

Schaeffer vs. Mooney83%, 17%

Schaeffer vs. Shepard, 49%, 51%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 40%, 60%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 43%, 57%

Townsend vs Ehrlich, 35%, 65% O'Malley vs.

Ehrlich, 42%, 57%


7842882159

90084 90226 89180

9439290368

78440

88095

59905

66463 66807 67422

79060

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

O'M

alley

Cardin

Gansler

Franchot

Johnson

Weathersbee

Bateman

Allsup

Core Ave.

DemCC

DOW

Gudger

Metzbower

Average

Dem Candidates - Vote Total


106145

100403

8797890129

93018

83217 83119

9139987688

106970

90967

8460381480

91619

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Ehrlich

Steele

RollesMcCarthy

Leopold

Fischer

Moran

Parker

Core Ave

Repcc

Phelps

Schaefer

Witherspoon

Overall Ave

Rep Candidates - Vote Total


54899

57615

87676

63879

89456

83305

89613

93533

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1994 1998 2002 2006

AA County Executive Races 1994-2006

Dem

Rep


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Council Council 1998-2006

Dem98

Dem02

Dem06

Rep98

Rep02

Rep06


1631

-119

-4027

1379

5250

1903

977

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6 District 7

State's Attorney vs. County Executive Races by District

Low-High - Dem

Weathersbee-Johnson

Weathersbee-Fischer

Johnson-Leopold

Fischer-Leopold


65.1%

62.1%

58.1%59.5% 60.0%

55.1%57.2%

62.8%

68.8%66.2%

64.8% 64.2%61.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Rep % of all Abstentee/Provisional


EXIT POLLS

Ehrlich O’Malley Others Didn’t vote Cases

Democrats 17 79 3 6 180

Republicans 89 10 0 1 167

Unaffiliated 54 40 6 0 50

Other 83 8 0 8 12

Informed about Governor Candidate’s Stands on Issues?

Informed? Percent

Very 56

Somewhat 37

Not very 7

Total 100


EXIT POLLS

Issues by Vote for Governor: Open-ended/closed-ended

Issue Type of Poll Closed-ended

Issue Closed Open Ehrlich O’Malley

Economy 21 5 53 44

Education 18 18 43 57

Taxes 16 8 69 31

Crime 13 4 55 40

Growth 8 3 62 39

Cost of living 6 3 50 50

Slots 6 3 80 20

Healthcare 5 0 13 88

Environment 3 3 40 60

Work with legislature 3 0 25 75

College tuition 3 2 60 40

Total 100 49


EXIT POLLS

Type of Survey Closed-ended

Traits Open Closed Ehrlich O’Malley

Honesty, trustworthy 33 10 44 56

All others 21 0 -- --

Party 7 0 -- --

Leadership, competence, has a plan 7 22 55 45

Clear, straightforward, forthright 6 0 -- --

Generally likeable character 6 0 -- --

Persistent, consistent 5 0 -- --

Right experience 4 25 69 31

Past record 3 0 -- --

Integrity/right moral outlook 3 21 73 22

Overall beliefs 3 0 -- --

Family man 2 6 10 90

Understand the needs of others 0 12 20 75

Works well with others 0 4 14 86

Total 100 100

Traits Motivating Vote for Governor (Contrast Short and Long Forms)


EXIT POLLS

4947

54

45

60

37

60

40

4850

36

56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 70+

Graph 1: Age and Vote for Governor

Ehrlich %

O’Malley %


EXIT POLLS

27

61

67

37

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ehrlich % O’Malley %

Graph 2: Race and Governor Vote

African-Americans

Caucasians


EXIT POLLS

4447

43

55

50 50

23

73

60

33

69

29

68

32

57

43

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

High school Some college Bachelor'sdegree

Postgrad work High school Some college Bachelor'sdegree

Postgrad work

Graph 5: Education, Income and Vote for Governor

Ehrlich

O'Malley

Lower Income Higher Income

Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party (short form)

Republicans Democrats Didn’t Vote

Ehrlich Leopold O’Malley Johnson Govr. County Exec. Cases

Democrats 17 22 79 74 6 4 180

Republicans 89 80 10 14 1 5 167

Unaffiliated 54 39 40 55 0 6 50

Other 83 42 8 42 8 17 12


EXIT POLLS


EXIT POLLS

7

-7

0-2

-11

11

-24

27

6

-20

-12

8

-12

9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

StrongDemocrat

WeakDemocrat

IndependentDemocrat

UnaffiliatedIndependent

IndependentRepublican

WeakRepublican

StrongRepublican

Graph 9: Governor-County Executive Vote

Partisan feelings Leopold

Partisan feelings Johnson


EXIT POLLS – Issues and County Executive Vote

Issue Short Long Ave Johnson Leopold

Short Long Ave Short Long Ave

Education 8 21 15 53 43 48 47 54 52

Growth 5 8 7 70 62 66 30 39 34

Taxes 5 15 10 0 40 20 100 60 80

Govt. spending 4 2 3 38 33 35 62 67 65

Cost of living 3 10 7 50 47 49 33 53 52

Crime 2 18 10 50 47 49 50 53 52

Environment 2 8 5 100 62 81 0 38 19

Transportation 1 3 2 0 80 40 100 20 60

Economy 1 11 6 51 47 49 50 53 52

Party 30 -- 60 -- 40 --

Experience 6 -- 50 -- 50 --

Honesty 4 -- 43 -- 57 --

Anti-candidate 4 -- 43 -- 57 --

Leadership 4 -- 43 -- 57 --

Beliefs 4 -- 43 -- 57 --

Housing -- 3 -- 75 -- 25


EXIT POLLS – Issues/Traits and County Executive Vote

48

66

20

36

49 49

81

40

4951

35

80

65

43

52

19

60

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Johnson

Leopold43

50

47

63

29

57

50

53

30

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Honesty Strong leader Experience Understands needs ofpeople like me

Intelligence

Johnson

Leopold

Traits and the Vote for County Executive (revised 12-2-06)

Issues and the Vote for County Executive

-6

-1

-9

-12

6

-8

-7

6

-3

-2

0

-3

3

-1

0

10

-2

0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71+

Graph 10: Changes in Support by Age Group

Leopold

Johnson

No Vote


EXIT POLLS – Age/Education and County Executive Vote vs. Governor Vote

-2

5

6

-8

5 5

-4

1

4

-3

1

3

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

High school Some college Bachelor’s degree Postgraduate work

Graph 12: Change in Vote for County Executive vs. Governor

Leopold

Johnson

No Vote


EXIT POLLS – Influences on County Executive Vote

Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate

Influence Overall Leopold Johnson Cases

The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself

13 80 20 20

Information from the Internet 13 65 30 20

Literature received in the mail 15 63 33 24

Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun

14 57 44 23

Newspaper stories about candidate 20 47 50 32

Conversations with friends or family 22 41 51 37

I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11 41 53 17

Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33 39 59 54

Paid ads in the newspapers 5 38 63 8

Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 5 38 50 8

Paid ads on TV 15 29 67 24

I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc.

8 27 73 11


EXIT POLLS – State’s Attorney and County Executive

Gap in Support for Weathersbee and Johnson by Social and Political Variables

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Graph 16: Weathersbee-Johnson

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Informed about Governor Candidate’s Stands on Issues?

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