Elsa OlivettiDepartment of
Materials Science & Engineering
Informing design of resource-effective materials, processes and systems
2
Resource-effective decision making for design of materials, operations, industries, and systems
Materials do not exist in isolation, they are part of complex networks.
Slide 3
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Cobalt27
Co58.933
Nickel28
Ni58.693
Carbon6
C12.011
Manganese25
Mn54.938
Lithium3
Li6.941
Analysis of Potential Supply Chain Bottlenecks in Metals for Li-ion batteries
Joule 2017
Slide 4
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Resource restrictions for relevant materials
0
100
200
300
400
500
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80
Reserve/prim
ary mine
prod
uctio
n
Fraction in top country
Natural graphite
Lithium
CobaltManganese Nickel
2005
2015
2015
20052015
Static depletion above 30 years for allNi and Mn index is relatively constant indicating that the economics of demand drive the supply towards continued economical extraction.
Slide 5
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Geographic concentration for relevant materials
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
C
Li
Co
Mn
Ni
China India Brazil
Argentina
China
China
Australia Chile
Dem. Rep. of Congo Canada
South Africa Australia
Philippines Canada Indonesia Concentrated supply chain more vulnerable to disruption:
-Socio-political upheaval-Weather-Manufacturing bottlenecks
Slide 6
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Cobalt supply chain focuses on few dominant players
Co globally concentrated in mining, but it is also geographically concentrated in refining
Ni Co
Au
Cu
PGM
Cu
TeSeCo
Au
Ag
Bi
PGM
Mo
Re
Slide 7
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Lithium supply chain is more diversified
Lithium carbonate recovered via multiple routes and geographically less concentratedResource and reserve estimates are still expanding
Slide 8
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Amount of material needed per kWh varies by chemistry
Use Li Co Ni Mn Graphitic
carbon
Lithium cobalt oxide electronics 0.113 0.959 0 0
~1.2*
Lithium nickel
cobalt aluminum
oxide
Auto, grid, other
0.112 0.143 0.759 0
Lithium nickel
manganese cobalt
oxide NMC-1110.139 0.394 0.392 0.367
NMC-622 0.126 0.214 0.641 0.200NMC-811 0.111 0.094 0.750 0.088
Current metal required in kg/kWh* literature values
Slide 9
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyEngineering Systems Division & Department of Materials Science
Focus on cobalt demand and supply
Slide 10
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyEngineering Systems Division & Department of Materials Science
Cri cality ≠ Scarcity!
MarketImperfections
FunctionalityConstraints
Inherent to miningSpecific to the materialFrom external factors
SubstitutabilityFeasibility of alternativesImportance of technology
RISK
Criticality Risk deemed too high by a decision‐maker
What is materials criticality?
Slide 11
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Materials availability: Byproduct dependency used as metric of criticality
(Frenzel et al., 2017)
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Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Criticality classification of byproduct and carrier pairs
High criticality
Medium criticality
Slide 13
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Develop and refine metrics to guide decision making
System Supply elasticity 95% CI Causes of inelasticityZn-In (-0.08, 0.29) Supply limited by production
capacity from carrierLack of global price setting mechanismCu-Se (-0.03, 0.09) Supply limit of carrier; Limit
of recovery efficiency (~50%)Zn/Coal-Ge (-0.31, 0.36) National stockpiling strategy
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Byproduct status as indicator of criticality?
• Sometimes…
• Yes for indium
• Mixed evidence for selenium and germanium’s inelastic supply, including:
– the supply limit of carrier,
– recovery efficiency limits,
– lack of a global price-setting mechanism
– national strategic stockpiling that disrupts market forces.
• Conclusion: Difference between supply and supply potential more indicative of criticality than ‘byproduct dependence’
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Novel materials development
Non-cobalt containing cathodes
Li-air, Li-sulfur
Solid state
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Computational efforts have accelerated the materials discovery process
+ + H i2
i1
Ne
Vnuclear (ri )i1
Ne
12
1rj riji
Ne
i
Ne
3.2V
3. 86 V
3.7 V
3.76 V
4.09 V
Phase diagrams SurfacesBandgaps
7 publishers to date
~1,500K texts
95% paragraphaccuracy
Automated Pipeline Database query
86% extraction accuracy
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Develop recipe database to improve understanding of materials synthesis
NaNi1/3Co1/3Fe1/3O2 was synthesized by solid‐state reaction. Excess amounts of Na2O, NiO,Co3O4 and Fe2O3 weremixed and ball milled for 4 h at 500 rpm rate, and the resulting material was collected in the glove box. About 0.5 g of powder was fired at 800 °C under O2for 14 h before it was quenched to room temperature and moved to a glove box filled with argon.
Extract synthesis text through machine learning and rule-based
methods
Identify hundreds of thousands of manuscripts by target material
Generate codified, machine readable database
of recipesRecipe
databaseRecipe
database
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Resource-effective material development: suggesting multiple routes for synthesis
npj Computational materials, accepted
TiO2
Suggesting synthesis conditions for materials, extend to novel materials
MnO2
Clustering of latent space points to role for NaOH and ethanol in brookite synthesis
Polymorphs for MnO2 overlaid with most probable alkali‐ion use in synthesis (intercalation‐based phase stability)
Scientific Data, 2017Chem. Of Materials, 2017
Fe2O3
PbO3
Mix Heat Heat
AcetoneSeveral hours
Zr(C5H7O2)
Bi(CH3COOH)32h520K
2h920K
Cool Sinter
3h1020K
Fe2O3
PbO
Mill Heat Mill
Several hours
ZrO2
Bi2O3
12h950K Several hours
Cool Sinter
48h1050K
Bi0.5 Pb0.5Fe0.5 Zr0.5O3
Generate recipes
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & Engineering
Resource-effective performance of materials
• Systems thinking divorced from materials science and vice versa masks opportunities
– As system, material, and process complexity increases need novel ways to analyze problems
• Materials have critical role in solving key economic and environmental problems
– Solutions that account for scale are needed to address the impact of materials use
Thank you
olivetti.mit.edu
Collaborators:Prof. Gerbrand Ceder,Prof. Andrew MccallumProf. Stefanie Jegelka
Michael Laracy, Dr. Thomas Poinot,
Prof. John Ochsendorf, Prof. Hamlin Jennings