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InnovationDynamics:
Industry & Technology Roadmapping
IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03
Joost [email protected]
http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/
• Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis• Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary• Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum• Viewing Business Implications & Context of
Technology trends• Unifying, Big-Picture perspective• Long-term view, “futurecasting”• Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players
& MIT research sponsors• Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD
students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar
Technology Roadmapping(TRM)
Technology Roadmapping
Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering
Emerging MIT Sloan research theme
Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends• Historical Efforts
– Moore’s Law– Electronic Devices– Sematech Roadmap– Disk Drives
• Ongoing– Optical Networking– Wireless
• Future– New technologies
…
Moore’s Law
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010103
104
105
106
107
108
109
Transistors per chip
Year
80786PentiumPro
Pentium80486
8038680286
8086
80804004
?
Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
Source: Fine, MIT
101 100 10-1102
104
106
108
Number of chip components
Feature size (microns)
1010
1012
1018
1014
1016
10-2 10-3
Classical Age
Historical Trend
SIA Roadmap2010
CMOS
19952000
2005
1970
1980
1990
Roadmap for Electronic Devices
4oK
Quantum Age
77oK
295oK
Quantum State Switch
Horst D. SimonSource: Fine, MIT
International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99
Year 2005 2008 2011 2014
Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35
DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792
DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64
MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937
MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0
MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5
Source: Fine, MIT
Disk Drive Development1978-1991
Disk Drive Generation
14”
8”
5.25”
3.5”
2.5”
DominantProducer
IBM
Quantum
Seagate
Conner
Conner
Dominant Usage
mainframe
Mini-computer
Desktop PC
Portable PC
Notebook PC
From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive costper megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10
Approx cost perMegabyte
$750
$100
$30
$7
$2
Source: Fine, MIT
Voice growth
TDM line rategrowthData growth
Optical networkcapacity growth
Cap
acit
y
OC12OC48
OC192
Optical Networking
Time
OC768
Source: Fine, MIT
1 2 3 4 5
Timeline Now Starting Starting 3-5 years 5-15 years
Stage Discrete Components
Hybrid Integration
Low-level monolithic integration
Medium Monolithic integration
High-level monolithic integration
Examples MUX/DEMUX
TX/RX moduleOADM
TX/RX moduleOADM
OADM, TransponderSwitch Matrix
Transponder
CoreTechno-logies
FBGs, Thin-film, fused fiber, mirrors
Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates
SilicaSiliconInP
InP, ?? InP, ??
How manyFunctions?
1 2-5 2-5 5-10 10-XXX
Industry Structure
Integrated Integrated/Horizontal
Integrated/Horizontal
Optical Technology Evolution:Navigating the Generations
with an Immature Technology
HELIXDOUBLEHELIXDOUBLE
Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & CorningSource: Fine, MIT
Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:“The Bullwhip Effect”
Customer Retailer Distributor Factory Tier 1 Supplier
Information lagsDelivery lagsOver- and underorderingMisperceptions of feedbackLumpiness in orderingChain accumulations
SOLUTIONS:Countercyclical MarketsCountercyclical TechnologiesCollaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing)
Equipment
Source: Fine, MIT
Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip
"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991
% C
han
ge, Year
to Y
ear
% Chg. GDP % Chg. Vehicle Production Index% Chg. Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry
Source: Fine, MIT
What are TRM essentials?
• Performance indicators
• Innovations over time, trendlines
• Physical limitations
• Value Chains
• Industry Structure
…
Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping
• Observing Value Chain Evolution over time• Language for discussion between management &
technology world• Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains,
between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application
• Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics LIDS Media Lab eBiz Center
• Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps– Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)
Other Roadmapping Efforts
• ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors– http://public.itrs.net/
• Electricity Technology Roadmap– http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/
• Steel Industry Technology Roadmap– http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm
• Lighting Technology Roadmap– http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/
• Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM– http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm
Technology AND Industry Roadmaps
• Not just focus on technologies
• Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the Industry level
• How technology is adopted (or not): what are economic & business issues
TRM Industry-Benefits
• Economic context for technology decisions & investments
• Lowering Risks for capital investments
• Not Stalin’s 5-year plans – rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition
Components of MIT’s Technology Roadmapping Effort (are at Least)1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like
models of the bullwhip effect)2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of
the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book)3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-
like analyses for players in the value chain)4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry
Association's roadmap built around Moore's law)5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross
Sector
Source: Fine, MIT
TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics
Economic / Business
Cycle Dynamics
Industry Structure Dynamics
Corporate Strategy
Dynamics
Customer Preference Dynamics
Emerging Technology Dynamics
Regulatory / Policy
Dynamics
CB E FDA
The Fine Helix
Integral/Vertical
Modular/Horizontal
DOJ 1984Telecom Act 1996
NicheCompetitors
1998
2000
Pressure toIntegrate
Pressure toDis-Integrate
Economies of Scope(single provider, PTN)
Market Power (local carriers)
Broadband,Convergence
HighComplexity
Organizational(and regulatory)
Rigidities
Source: Carroll, Srikantiah & Wolters 2000; Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt
Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed
• Benefits to comparing between Industries
• Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics– Cross-species Benchmarking
• Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretical understanding
Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation
• Communications Roadmap– Optical Communications
• MicroPhotonics
– Wireless• Personal Area Networking• Cellular G3, G4, G5
• Medical Imaging– MRI
• Functional MRI
• Nanotechnology– Precision Engineering
• AFM
– Biological Engineering• Bacterial Robotics
TRM Technology Domains(including, but not limited to…)
Established• Semiconductors• Photonics• Genomics /
Proteomics / Celleomics
• Wireless• MEMS• Smart Materials
Emerging• Soft Lithography• Neurotechnology• Nanotechnology• Organotechnology• Biological Engineering• Gerontechnology• Autonomous Systems
MIT Emerging Technology Matrix:http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html
MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts1. Information Technologies = Ever more sophisticated
computation & communication, leveraging mind & media.2. Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering,
perfecting the health & life sciences.3. Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating ever
smaller systems, at scales from micro thru nano4. Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political & econo-
technological systems.5. Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and leapfrog
technologies for tackling challenges in developing & emerging regions
Richly Interwoven MIT Themes
2. BioTech 3. TinyTech
1. InfoTech
4. Complex Systems
5. Developmental Innovations
MIT Matrix1.
Info2. Bio
3. Tiny
4. Compl’x
5. Develop’l
MIT Research
LCS/AI, Media, eBiz, Mkting
POPI, CBE, Whitehd, McGrn
MTL, ISN, MicroPht, MPC
CEEPR, Sloan, AGS
Digital Nations, TDP, Globalization, MISTI
AcademicCourses
1, 6, 18, MAS
HST, BE, 6, 7
3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 16
SDM, 6, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21
1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 17
Extra-curriculars
MediaTech
Bio-Strategy
TinyTech Consulting SEID, ATF
MIT Alum Startups
Akamai, Dir’ctHit
Amgen,
Biogen
Gen’tec
Surface-Lgx, eink, Angstr’m
HP, Raytheon
AfricaOnline, Evergreen Solar
http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm
http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm
Transformative Innovations,
Emerging Hard & Soft Technologies,
Disruptive Challenges
Global Business Strategy, Accelerating
International Development
Effective Organizations,
Culture-Crafting Entre- & Intra-
preneurial Leadership
TechnologyEntrepreneurship &Strategy Dynamics
Dynamic,Networked
Organizations
Developmental Innovations,
MicroFinance
Innovation
Global
Leadership
Core Sloan Themes
Unifying Strategic Themes
Global Development
Effective Leadership
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, &
Economics
Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines
Behavioral & Policy Science
Strat & Org’ns
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
Un
ifyin
g S
tra
tegi
c T
hem
es
MIT Sloan
Classic Disciplinary Strengths
Global Development
Entrepreneurial Effectiveness
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, &
Economics
Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines
Behavioral & Policy Science
Strat & Org’ns
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
MIT Sloan
MIT Sloan Capabilities
Global Development
Effective Leadership
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, &
Economics
Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines
Behavioral & Policy Science
Strat & Org’ns
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
Un
ifyin
g S
tra
tegi
c T
hem
es
MIT Sloan Matrix
SloanMatrix
Sloan Matrix
Global Development
International
Mgt
Global Value Chains, TechMaps
Entrepreneurial Policy
Effective
Leadership
Financial Engineering, Management
Business Dynamics
Tech-Biz
Ventures
Transformative Innovations
Virtual Customer
Tech Strategy
Finance, Accounting, &
Economics
Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines
Behavioral & Policy Science
Strat & Org’ns
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
Un
ifyin
g S
tra
tegi
c T
hem
es
Innovation
Global
Leadership
VentureFinance
Mapping Sloan Faculty to MIT’s Emerging Strategic Tech Sectors
1. Info Tech
2. Bio Tech
3. Tiny Tech
4. Comp’x Systems
5. Develop’t
Innovations
Strategy
MTIE
Org/HR
Finance
Marketing
Operat’ns
Prod Dev
Faculty Interests @ Levels of Analysis
EconomicGrowth
MarketDifferentiation
VentureCapital
ValuingIP
TraderPsychology
GlobalSupply Chains
TechnologyRoadmaps
BusinessDynamics
Marketing-Engineering Links
BuyerDecision-Making
GlobalStrategy
TechnologyStrategy
EntrepreneurialCulture
GroupDynamics
InventorEthos
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
Levels x Discipline
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
Finance, Accounting, &
Economics
Manag’nt Sci, Functional Disciplines
Behavioral & Policy Science
Strat & Org’ns
EconomicGrowth
MarketDifferentiation
VentureCapital
ValuingIP
TraderPsychology
GlobalSupply Chains
TechnologyRoadmaps
BusinessDynamics
Marketing-Engineering Links
BuyerDecision-Making
GlobalStrategy
TechnologyStrategy
EntrepreneurialCulture
GroupDynamics
InventorEthos
Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis…
Technology Roadmap
Technology VentureObservatory
OpenSourceInitiative
Virtual CustomerInitiative
Emerging Tech-BizLive Cases
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various Levels of Analysis…
Technology Roadmap
Technology VentureObservatory
OpenSourceInitiative
Virtual CustomerInitiative
Emerging Tech-BizLive CasesION
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
Innovation Observatories:Further Possibilities
Technology Roadmap
Technology VentureObservatory
OpenSourceInitiative
Virtual CustomerInitiative
Emerging Tech-BizLive Cases
Global DevelopmentObservatory
Venture Capital Observatory
Creative Communities Observatory
Decision Neuropsychology Lab
Social Network Observatory
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
Innovation Observatories:Technology Roadmapping
Technology Roadmapping
Econ-omy
Sector
Firm
Group
Indi-vidual
Geo-graphy
Market/
Tech
Organi-zation
Theme
Idea
http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu/
EQUIPMENT MAKERS
END USERS
COMP- ONENTS
SERVICE PROVIDERS
CONTENT & APPLICS
•Silicon•Gaas•InP•Polymers•Steppers•Etchers•MEMS•Insertion•Etc..
•Lasers•Amplifiers•Transceiver •Filters•Processors•Memorys•Fiber•ASICS•MEMS•DSP’s•Etc..
•Routers•Switches•Hubs•Base Stations•Satellites•Servers•Software•O/S•Etc..
•Wireless•Backbone•Metro •Access•Substations•Satellites•Broadcast Spectrum•Communic Spectrum•Etc..
•Long distance•Local Phone•Cellular•ISP•Broadcast•Hot Spots•Cable TV•Satellite TV•VPN’s•MVNO’s•Etc..
•Music•Movies•Email•VoIP•POTS•Shopping•ERP•SCM, CRM•Surveillance
•eBusiness•Etc..
•Computers•Phones•Media Players• Cameras•PDA’s•Weapons•Etc..
NETWORKOWNERS
Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium
DEVICESMATERIALS &PROCESS EQUIP
•Business•Consumer•Gov’t•Military•Education•Medical•Etc..
MPC, MTLLIDS, RLE
eBusiness,Oxygen,
Media LabITC
LCS
Source: Prof. C. Fine, MIT
Why Value Tech Roadmapping?
• Trends -- Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future
• Consensus – Shared opinion about likely future developments
• Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue particular technologies
• Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding
• Understanding -- Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends
15.795 Technology Roadmapping
Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost BonsenFall 2002
This seminar will explore the purposes and development ofTechnology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered.
(An example Masters Research Seminar)
TRM Class Goals
• Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors
• Across MIT research areas• Cross Industry Benchmarking• Partnered with Industrial Sponsors• Attract students passionate about technology
sector, however broadly or narrowly defined• Committed to producing coherent & complete
Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester
Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae• Business school disconnect
• Unfortunate and sub-optimal
• We’re prototyping a new path
• Help show that it works!
Seminars & Conferences
• Part of 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.
• Find them through http://web.mit.edu Google & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.
High TRM Student Expectations
• Serious commitment of time & interest• Literature review & substantial interviews• Attend talks & seminar series in that tech
sector, that’s part of the course– E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem
-series.shtml
• Data gathering & presentation smithing• Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters
end
TRM Academia Speakers (and Labs to Engage)
• Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS– http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/
• Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI– http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/
• Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors
• Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech– http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html
• Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics– http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html
• Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery– http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html
• Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen– http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/
• Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering– http://web.mit.edu/be/
• E. Sachs, 3D Printing– http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/
• Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms– http://cba.mit.edu/
• Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology– http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html
TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs &
Sponsors• Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics
Center & Communication Roadmap
• Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM seminar– Ask them to speculate about the important
trends in their areas & to proto-roadmap– What would they like? What would their
sponsors like?
TRM Literature
• MicroPhotonics Center– http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu
• Example Theses– http://mitsloan.mit.edu/research/
clockspeed/main.html
• References– http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/