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www.whiteboardadvisors.com Common Core and the Assessment Consortia July 2012 www.whiteboardadvisors.com 1
www.whiteboardadvisors.com
Common Core and the Assessment ConsortiaJuly 2012
www.whiteboardadvisors.com
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Why Education InsiderINTRODUCTION
The ValueWe harness the wisdom of well‐connected influentials to provide insights and predict policy outcomes for stakeholders in the education debate.
Whiteboard Advisors is a policy‐oriented consulting practice. We provideproprietary research and strategic support to investors and philanthropicdonors, government leaders and entrepreneurs that seek unparalleledunderstanding of the education policy and business environment.
Education Insider helps those who need quality information to make high‐stakes decisions about the direction of federal policy. Education Insidercombines the wisdom of informed crowds with expert analysis to offerunparalleled information, analysis, and forecasting on a range of federaleducation policy issues and likely outcomes.
Education Insider conducts an anonymous survey of a small group of keyeducation influentials (policymakers, thought leaders, and associationheads) to get their thoughts and commentary about the context of thecurrent debate and possible outcomes. This helps surface the underlyingdynamics that can affect the trajectory of policies, positively or negatively,and go deeper than the conventional wisdom and rhetoric.
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Why Education InsiderINTRODUCTION
The Process
Education Insider is a monthly report and webinar that cuts through thenoise and provides real‐time insights on national education policy trends,debates, and issues—from the handful of decision makers that are reallydriving the process. We combine a survey of key education influencerswith our own analysis to provide a unique perspective on the current stateof debate.
Who Are The Insiders?Influential leaders who are shaping federal education reform, includingindividuals who have or are currently serving as key policy and political“insiders,” such as:
• Current and former White House and U.S. Department of Educationleaders
• Current and former Congressional staff• State education leaders including state school chiefs and formergovernors
• Leaders of major education organizations, think tanks and other keyinfluentials
Survey Insiders
Analyze Results
Report Insights
DriveAction
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• Insiders remain concerned about the direction of the assessment consortia. 58 percent think the SBAC consortia is on the “wrong track” and 45 percent of Insiders think neither assessment consortia will meet the 2014 deadline for delivering new assessments.
• 80 percent of Insiders believe school districts are very unprepared for the new Common Core standards and see multiple challenges to successful implementation.
• Congressional approval remains low – at zero percent. Disapproval of the administration ticks up slightly. Insiders continue to see reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act as unlikely before 2014, with 40 percent now saying it will not be reauthorized until after the 2014 midterm elections.
• 45 percent of Insiders view the inability of school districts to implement the new assessments as a major obstacle to districts’ success, while 20 percent see technology infrastructure as a major issue.
100% of Insiders continue to disapprove of the way Congress in handling education.
45% of Insiders think that the assessment consortia will not meet their 2014‐15 deadline.
45% of Insiders feel that the biggest threat to implementation of the assessments is school districts’ ability to successfully implement the exams.
0% of Insiders believe that schools are fully ready to implement what is expected from the Common Core.
Executive SummaryINTRODUCTION
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Table of ContentsINTRODUCTION
TRACKING MEASURES 6
12 COMMON CORE AND ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
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Congressional Disapproval Remains at Highest Level Ever, Administration Disapproval Increases Slightly
TRACKING MEASURES
Questions (asked separately on Insider survey): Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress/the Administration is handling education?
Job Approval on Education
0%
100%
020406080
100
Approve Disapprove
Congress
26 32 20 23 32 4019 33
10 5 6 18 146 0 0
74 6880 77 68 60
8167
90 95 9482 86 94
100 100
8064 59 65
5568
48 46 40 45
59
35
57 50 52
4520 36
41 35 4532
52 54 60 55
41
65
4350 48
5555%45%
0
50
100
Approve Disapprove
Administration
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TRACKING MEASURES
ESEA Reauthorization: New Tracking Timeline
Timing of ESEA Reauthorization
Question: About when do you believe a final ESEA bill will be signed into law?
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5337 32 36 30 22
0
43
135 8
5 9
10 5 12 5
4664 56 65 70
90 95 100 88 95
Jul.'10
Nov.'10
Dec.'10
Jan.'11
Feb.'11
Mar.'11
Jun.'11
July'11
Sept.'11
Dec.'11
Jan.'12
2011 2012 2013 or After
Date of Insider Survey
New Dates
5%12%
33%10%
29%5%
10%
24% 33%
35%
35% 29%40%
Apr. '12 Jun. '12 July '12
By June 2013 By Dec. 2013By Jun. 2014 By Dec. 2014After Jan. 2015
Why?
• “Work won’t start until next spring. And there’s a lot of work to be done to get a draft.”
• “It depends on what the Congress looks like and who wins the presidential election.”
• “A Republican sweep in November will hasten the process and make Harkin less of an obstacle.”
• “This is my optimistic side being hopeful. It could definitely be later – very hard to imagine it being any sooner.”
• “Never.”
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TRACKING MEASURES
Insider Insight: Reauthorization Timing
Question: Are the assessment coalitions on the right track or wrong track?Note: July survey closed on July 10, 2012.
Are the assessment coalitions on the right track or wrong track?
Assessments – Right Track or Wrong Track?TRACKING MEASURES
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73% 83% 85%
27% 17% 15%
Apr. '12 June '12 July '12
PARCCRight Track Wrong Track
29%44% 42%
71%56% 58%
Apr. '12 June '12 July '12
SBACRight Track Wrong Track
Insiders continue to express more confidence in thePartnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers than in the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium. Does this matter? Yes. Whether or not Insiders are correct, this consistent and strong perception matters as the consortia move forward.
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Insider Insight: Right Track / Wrong TrackTRACKING MEASURES
Why do you believe PARCC and SBAC are on the right or wrong track?
• “They are behind schedule and are not getting enough input from the assessment industry.”
• “Both are mediocre at best. Neither has staying power.”
• “PARCC is in good shape despite the many unavoidable challenges. Great governing board, smart staff.”
• “Smarter Balanced seems to have started with a misdiagnosis of the testing problem to begin with, and then gone from there. PARCC is more grounded but consequently less exciting.”
Insiders’ responses are unchanged from last month; they remain convinced that the Administration is most supportive.
The only slight change is that Insiders now believe the majority of local educators and school leaders are neutral rather than strong.
Stakeholder Support for the Common CoreTRACKING MEASURES
Question: Please rate the level of support for the Common Core among the following groups…
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5%20% 15%
35%
5%
55%
30%
45%
20%
25%
45%
10%
20%
50%
10% 5%
80%
25%
Local educatorsand schoolleaders
State educationofficials(includinglegislators)
Congress Administration Commercialvendors
Levels of Support Among…Very Weak Weak Neutral Strong Very Strong
Insiders are nearly split on whether each consortium’s assessment will be ready by the 2014‐2015 school year.
This suggests the implementation schedule is something to carefully watch.
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Will the Consortia Be Ready to Administer Tests by 2014‐15?ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
Readiness for test administration by the 2014‐2015 school year
Question: Do you believe the consortia will have Common Core‐aligned tests ready to be administered by 2014‐2015 school year?
55% 55%
45% 45%
PARCC SBAC
Yes No
Why will the consortia meet or not meet the deadline?
• “There will need to be time allowed for back and forth once the assessments are publicly available. Everyone will have their own issues (which will differ by state) that folks will want to negotiate.”
• “The real question is: Which of the consortia should take advantage of the right to extend the deadline for a year? The answer is probably: Both.”
• “They are 1 year behind given that they need to be out in the next 3 months with test items and that seems to be a rush. Also, the capacity is not there in states and districts for the delivery of online assessments.”
• “That's why they were created. It would be a failure of enormous proportions if either fails.”
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Insider Insight: Assessment Readiness by 2014‐15 ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
45 percent of Insiders believe that the biggest threat to successful implementation is the overall ability of school districts to implement this well.
The technology readiness of districts being able to manage the online components is also cited as a major concern.
Surprisingly, only 15 percent of Insiders cited cut scores as the biggest threat.
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Threats to Successful Implementation of the AssessmentsASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
What is the biggest threat to implementation of the assessments?
Question: What is the biggest threat to the successful implementation of the Common Core‐aligned assessments?
45%
20%
15%
10%
5% 5%
Overall ability of school districts toimplement this well
Lack of adequate technologyinfrastructure
Disagreement among statesaround cut scores
Too tight of a timeframe forsuccessful implementation
States pulling out of the consortiaand using their own tests
Procurement challenges
• “Infrastructure is not getting enough attention.”• “Lack of capacity at the state and district level to implement all of the needed changes associated with this change.”• “They are over‐promised. Many in the field will be disappointed by how much they look like the current generation of
assessments.”• “Technology capacity and capability for delivery.”• “Lack of planning in low‐standards states for how poor
the results will be.”• “November election. If GOP sweeps, these both fade away, like a
lanced boil.”• “One risk is potential confusion among districts over
common core aligned assessments and those by commercial vendors that claim alignment for marketing purposes but are not actually aligned.”
• “Lack of adequate technology infrastructure.”• “The lack of an adequate technology infrastructure.”• “Cost. SEAs spend more on assessments than anything else. Even a
couple‐dollar increase in per‐pupil costs means millions of dollars annually. Don't be surprised if the joint assessments come in more expensive than initially anticipated and states quietly develop buyer's remorse; start asking why they are giving up their less‐expensive, familiar, state‐developed tests; and then look for a way out of the consortium.”
• “Approval processes by legislatures and state and local governing boards.”• “The politics of states giving up their ‘own assessment.’”• “Teacher quality ‐ today's tests look the way they do for a reason.”
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What is the Biggest Risk Related to These Assessments That No One is Paying Attention to?
ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
Insiders strongly believe that school districts are not yet ready to fully implement the new standards. Pay close attention to district reactions as the changes that Common Core requires from instruction and curriculum resources become more of a reality.
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How Ready are Schools?ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
How ready are schools for implementing what is expected from the Common Core?
Question: How ready are schools for implementing what is expected from the Common Core?
35%
45%
20%
0% 0%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 ‐ Not Ready 2 3 4 5 ‐ Extremely ready
Why do you believe schools are or are not ready to implement assessments?
• “Very few people understand ‘the shifts’ in curricular focus, what students are expected to be able to learn, and what teachers are expected to do in the classroom. Even districts with high capacity are behind, and having been trained by the three past efforts at standards implementation, are prepared to underperform.”
• “There has been plenty of time.”
• “The system is unclear an un‐implementable.”
• “States are accustomed to transitioning to new standards. But these are different. The transition will happen. But how well?”
• “Still a culture of ‘certain kids don’t need that stuff.”
• “Some interesting stuff happening around curriculum but it's going to take a lot more work to make this a reality than most districts realize. These new standards are in many cases a sea‐change.”
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Insider Insight: School‐level readinessASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
Insiders believe the biggest challenges facing schools are changing their instructional practices and the lack of aligned resources.
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What are the biggest challenges schools facing implementing Common Core?
ASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
Biggest challenge faced by schools
Question: What is the biggest challenge schools face in implementing the Common Core?
15%
5%
10%
35%
35%
Lack of aligned instructionalresources
Professional development
Confusion around the interpretationof the standards
Changing instructional practice
Other
What are the biggest challenges for schools implementing Common Core?
• “All of the above ‐ or more accurately the combination of all of these lacks.”
• “All of the above, and the failure of states to coalesce around the ‘common’ in Common Core. This last point—that states are acting like independent jurisdictions and not acting together—will duplicate problems of the past: weak material development, slipshod implementation, low levels of engagement with practicing educators, etc.”
• “All of these apply.”
• “Misunderstanding among educators that common core is not much different—in terms of what it will require in terms of both content and instructional practice—than the status quo.”
• “All of the above. Schools seem to be shooting in the dark to implement Common Core and have little support to do so.”
• “A large percentage of today's teachers may not be prepared to deliver instruction in ways that will lead to true college‐ and career‐readiness. I think the market will take care of instructional resources. I'm less convinced our educator preparation programs are ready to adequately support a shift to tougher standards.”
• “General incompetence.”
• “All of the above plus the administrative, political, and educrat rebellion that will result.”19
School‐level implementation challengesASSESSMENT CONSORTIA
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