Date post: | 01-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | amena-salinas |
View: | 31 times |
Download: | 0 times |
1
Insights and Trends from 25 Years of COCOMO Forums
Dan Ligett
Softstar Systems
www.SoftstarSystems.com
(603) 672-0987
25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling -- 11/3/2010
4
“Software Engineering Economics”, Barry Boehm
Oddball text book still in print after 27 years 21 printings still relevant
How come? revelation? because we haven’t gotten much better??
6
1985
“Back to the Future” opened
Time Person of the year: Deng Xiaoping
New Coke (Classic Coke <> Old Coke)
Commodore launches the Amiga
IBM PC AT (1984), 6MHz 80286, 16MB RAM, 20MB disk, MS-DOS 3.0
MS Windows 1.0 (Windows 3.1 1992)
We worried about Japan and 5GLs.
8
1985 Call for ParticipationGoals for the meeting include sharing of experiences of usage, learning about present and proposed capabilities, identifying areas for future research and development. Comparison to and integration of COCOMO with other models is also an appropriate topic for discussion. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, usage experience; novel and unusual applications; extensions to the model; comparison with other models; integration with other models; and data collection and recalibration. In addition, a tools fair we be conducted to demonstrate available implementations.
9
Some Numbers
800 attendees. More like 1,000
Probably 500 talks
77 at COCOMO 85 11 from DoD 38 from Aerospace/Defense 9 Tool Vendors 5 Telecom 9 other Commercial 2 Academia 3 Unknown
7 countries
10
1985 + 24 = 2010
COCOMO Meetings #1 in 1985 + 24 +24 #25 in 2009?? No meeting in 1992
WIGS = 2
Software Engineering Institute = 6
USC =15
Systems and Software Consortium = 1
MIT = 1
11
1985 COCOMO / WICOMO Forum
Barry Boehm * TRW
Wolfhart B. Goethert IITRI
Robert E. Park GE
Marilee Wheaton TRW
Walker Royce * Eclectic Systems
Joe Dean Hanscom Air Force Base
Randall W. Jensen Hughes Aircraft Company
Paul R. Garvey MITRE
George Bozoki * Target Software
Paul Rook * SEPM
Dan Ligett * Wang Institute
56
Conclusions – Continuity
In 1985 we were sophisticated; we knew to: Collect data Calibrate & validate Tailor, innovate, extend, adapt Use more than one model Be conservative in setting parameters
Same SW quality; no better
Our brains haven’t changed much Always trying something beyond our grasp Same management problems Same economic trade-offs Attention span?
57
Conclusions -- Changes
Much smarter about uncertainty
More emphasis on Systems
Bigger projects components better tools
58
Conclusions – More Changes
Less sure about what to count
Just a bit of SE improvement “We tried Software Engineering; it didn’t work”
Trend: Forums less tool-oriented
67
List 1985 talks, 1 of 3
Barry Boehm - COCOMO: Answering the Most Frequent Questions
Dan Ligett - The Development of WICOMO
Tom Lydon, Brian Poynton - WICOMO at Raytheon Current Use and Future Plans
Stephan A. Greene - Front End Analysis of Software Development Projects
Philip D. Blackwood - A Constructive Schedule Model
68
List 1985 talks, 2 of 3
Greg D. Blank - COCOMO to Jenson Comparison
Bernard C. Price - Government Tailored COCOMO (GTCOCOMO)
Paul Rook - GECOMO Overview of Facilities, (presentation), GECOMO: An Implementation of Extended COCOMO
Walker E. Royce - PCOC: A Complete, User-Tailored, Interactive Cost Analysis Tool Based on COCOMO
69
List 1985 talks, 3 of 3
Gregory Lazarev, Winston G. Gresov - Logic Programming as a Software Engineering Tool, Logic Programming (PROLOG): A Powerful Tool
Bernward Jopen - Experience with the Constructive Cost Model in Data Communications S/W-Projects
George J. Bozoki - A Software Sizing Model
Roger D.H. Warburton - Cost Estimation for Very High Level Languages
Edward J. Szwedo - COCOMO in the Software Support Environment