Instability of Coastal Landscapes in Arctic Communities ... · changes in climate forcing is a...

1

Coastal LandscapeT. Bell and D. Forbes

ArcticNet Annual Research Compendium (2012-13)

Instability of Coastal Landscapes in Arctic Communities and Regions

Project LeaderBell, Trevor (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Forbes, Don (Memorial University of Newfoundland / Geological Survey of Canada)

Network InvestigatorsWayne Pollard (McGill University); Evan Edinger, Rod Smith (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Michel Allard (Université Laval); Alec Aitken (University of Saskatchewan); David Atkinson, Thomas James (University of Victoria)

CollaboratorsNicole Couture (McGill University); Christina Goldhar (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Joseph Henton (Natural Resources Canada - Geodetic Survey Division); Michael Craymer (Natural Resources Canada - Geomatics Canada); Dustin Whalen (Natural Resources Canada - Geological Survey of Canada (Atlantic)); Tom Sheldon (Nunatsiavut Department of Lands and Natural Resources); Gavin Manson (University of Guelph - Department of Geography); John Hughes Clarke (University of New Brunswick)

Post-Doctoral FellowHugues Lantuit (Alfred Wegener Institute Foundation for Polar and Marine Research); Dominique St. Hilaire-Gravel (Memorial University of Newfoundland)

Doctoral StudentMichael Fritz (Alfred Wegener Institute Foundation for Polar and Marine Research); Norman Shippee, (University of Saskatchewan); Vida Khalilian, Karen Simon (University of Victoria)

Masters StudentMichael Angelopoulos, Heather Cray, David Fox, Leigh-Ann Williams-Jones (McGill University); Beth Cowan, Sean Dethlefsen, Scott Hatcher (Memorial University of Newfoundland)

Honour Undergraduate StudentJared Simpson (McGill University)

Technical StaffChristine Legere (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Steve Brucker, Travis Hamilton, James Muggah, Weston Renoud (University of New Brunswick)

2



Abstract

Future climate scenarios and impacts modeling predict changes in climate variables that may increase coastal landscape instability and hazard risk. Projecting the future response of the coastal land system to these changes in climate forcing is a prerequisite for an effective adaptation strategy and forms the core of this ArcticNet project. Through improved understanding of changes in climate, sea-level, sea ice, storms and wave climate, seasonal thaw depths, and other aspects of environmental forcing we will assess integrated impacts on coastal landscape stability, including flooding, erosion, habitat integrity, and community vulnerability. Together with northern communities and partners we plan to integrate local and external research and knowledge on climate-change trends and impacts in order to provide a common basis for decision-making at all levels, thereby enhancing community adaptive capacity. Ultimately the goal is to promote informed choices of adaptation measures and enhanced resilience in northern coastal communities.

Key Messages

• A multibeam mapping program in partnership with UNB (ArcticNet project 2.6) using the GN research vessel MV Nuliajuk mapped previously uncharted coastal waters, clam habitat, and approaches to a proposed large-vessel wharf in Broughton Channel. It also documented submerged shore features such as boulder barricades, nearshore benches, and deltas from Clyde River and Qikiqtarjuaq to Boas Fiord and Mermaid Fiord on the outer Cumberland Peninsula.

• Multibeam mapping along the Baffin coast from Clyde River to Iqaluit confirmed the hypothesis of coastal submergence along the eastern fringe of the island. Combined with recent GPS observations, we conclude that sea level is rising at Clyde River, Qikiqtarjuaq, and Pangnirtung but still falling slowly at Iqaluit.

• The importance of landscape hazard mapping as a basis for sustainable community development and climate-change adaptation has been recognized and acted upon at territorial and municipal levels in Nunavut.

• Through workshops, the SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik initiative in Nunatsiavut has identified priority themes related to community sustainability in the region, including: Infrastructure, housing and community development; Valued spaces and places; Energy security, Food security; Transportation and emergency services; and Safe communities. New action-motivated research will be directed by these priorities.

• Recently published research by PDF Wolf and NI Bell argues that values are crucial in shaping perception of climate impacts and adaptation. Distinct values, such as tradition, freedom, harmony, safety, and unity shape different interpretations and meaning of impacts, and lead to distinct views on how to adapt to them. The findings imply that adaptation research and policy need to address values explicitly if efforts for planned adaptation are to be perceived as legitimate and effective by those affected by the changing climate.

• Residents of Nunatsiavut report that changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of freshwater are currently challenging their ability to access preferred drinking water and food sources, and are exacerbating existing financial barriers that restrict their time spent on the land. Recent research in Rigolet argues that the exposure of communities to freshwater changes and their capacity to adapt are largely shaped by the lifeways of residents and the manner and degree to which they are dependent on local freshwater ecosystems.

• Coastal thaw slumps continue to be significant contributors of soil and organic matter into the Arctic Ocean.

• A highly integrated approach to geomorphology which incorporates stratigraphic measurements, vegetation surveys, geophysical transects,

3



and differential GPS monitoring of landscape evolution is the best way to predict the maximum retreat of thaw features and understand coastal landscape change

• Reoccupation of erosion monitoring sites dating back 15 to 40 years along the Beaufort coast from the Yukon-Alaska border to McKinley Bay confirmed ongoing high rates of coastal recession and severe erosion threats to cultural resource sites in Ivvavik National Park. One archaeological site was completely lost and a historic cabin is now at the edge of the bluff and unlikely to survive another season.

• Coastal flooding at Iqaluit occurs during extreme tides with limited storm-surge activity, suggesting that flooding events may to some extent be predictable. Planning for minimal negative impacts requires a regular reassessment of global and local projections of sea level rise incorporating the latest estimates of vertical motion.

• Rare summer incursion of multiyear ice into Frobisher Bay and late clearance of ice from Cumberland Sound disrupted sealift and other shipping activities in 2012, a year of record ice loss in the Arctic Ocean, raising questions about the predictability of the ‘shipping season’ in a warming climate.

• Combined LiDAR, GPS, hydrometric and sedimentation data from the Mackenzie Delta support an analysis of nesting habitat vulnerability under rising sea levels with delta subsidence

• Occurrences of low-visibility, which take the form of fog, blowing snow during snow events, and re-suspended snow during strong wind events, interfere with aircraft, subsistence, and heavy shipping activity and represent a major weather disruptor for Northern communities.

Objectives

• To improve understanding of changes in climate, sea levels, sea ice, storms and wave climate,

seasonal thaw, permafrost and ground ice, and other aspects of environmental forcing as a basis for assessing integrated impacts on coastal landscape stability, including flooding, erosion, thermokarst activity, habitat degradation and community vulnerability, particularly in areas of high sensitivity and cultural significance.

• To improve our understanding of the effects of changes in climate on Arctic coastal environments, particularly pertaining to coastal and landscape instability, other natural hazards, and community vulnerability.

• To work with stakeholders in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Nunavut, and Nunatsiavut to develop improved adaptive management strategies to address changes in both physical and human systems and support sustainable development of safe and healthy communities.

• To integrate local and external research and knowledge on climate-change trends and impacts in order to provide a common basis for decision-making at all levels, thereby enhancing community adaptive capacity. Ultimately, the goal is to support and promote informed choices of adaptation measures and enhanced resilience in northern coastal communities.

• As part of the project’s evolution, in part deploying knowledge and skill-sets of new NIs, to focus on key knowledge gaps identified in the State of the Arctic Coast 2010 report. These include more robust projections of local sea-level change in Arctic communities, better understanding of the effects of a changing sea-ice regime on Arctic coasts, more detailed studies of Arctic storms and changing storm climatology, renewed efforts to develop integrated monitoring strategies, including changes in forcing, geomorphic response, and benthic ecology, in the context of a circumpolar coastal observing network, and consideration of the fate of Arctic deltas and intertidal systems under changing sea level, wave energy, and development pressures.

4



Introduction

Northern communities and community lands, generally located on permafrost in coastal environments, are exposed to a harsh climate, with strong seasonal contrasts in temperature, wind, precipitation, and ice conditions. Under a constant climate, seasonal changes in the landscape and extreme weather events create instability and hazards, including flooding, landslides, thaw failure and subsidence, coastal ice push, storm surges, and coastal erosion. Emerging evidence of climate change in the north and a growing global consensus point to significant changes leading to more severe environmental hazards in the future.

Coastal landscape change in the Arctic has been ongoing for thousands of years and human adaptation has been a constant imperative for Inuit occupying this region. The evolution of Inuit culture is a clear demonstration of adaptation to extreme climatic conditions, but limits to adaptation are seen in the demise of the Thule culture and early European agrarian settlement in Greenland, both due at least in part to climate cooling. The former occupation of parts of the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago that were later abandoned, as well as early paleo-Eskimo expansion southward to Newfoundland, demonstrates a capacity on the part of northern people to adapt in the past through migration, taking advantage of opportunities to access resources or withdrawing if resources became scarce. More recently, as people have become more dependent on community services available only through hamlets and larger settlements, moving is no longer an acceptable response to environmental change.

The Inuit lifestyle is closely tied to marine resources. Long experience on the land and coastal ocean has allowed the development of traditional knowledge of the physical environment and living resources in a region, as well as an understanding of the range of climate variability expected over timescales of a few generations. This knowledge base provided an understanding of safe practices or routes, such as areas of reliable ice, or of particular environmental hazards. Over the past few decades, and particularly in recent

years, the extent of climate variability and change has begun to challenge the limits of traditional knowledge. At the same time, climate change is forcing adjustments in building and infrastructure engineering practices in communities and driving a recognition of the need for adaptation at all levels from individuals to communities, regions, and territorial governments. It is expected that the pace of change will increase in the future, with some of the earliest and most severe changes occurring in high latitudes. The greatest warming in recent decades has occurred in the western Arctic, while climate warming has been slower to occur and less clear in Nunavut, Nunavik, and Labrador. However, there is now widespread evidence across the Canadian Arctic for climate warming affecting glaciers and ice caps, vegetation and other living resources, permafrost and seasonal depth of thaw, slope stability, coastal sea-ice conditions, wave energy, sea level and coastal flooding and erosion hazards, among other factors posing increased risk to northern coastal communities and habitats.

Virtually all Inuvialuit, Nunavut, Nunavik, and Nunatsiavut communities are coastal and many emerging resource developments are either located on the coast or, more commonly, require shipping access with coastal implications. Thus coastal infrastructure is a critical issue for northern governments and communities. The emerging evidence for climate warming in the Arctic is pointing to changes already apparent in coastal ice extent, form, and safety as a hunting platform, sea-level changes, increased wave action and erosion even in communities with rapid uplift and falling relative sea levels, and changes in species composition with implications for coastal habitat integrity and communities dependent on country food. There is a high demand on the part of communities and territorial governments for information on these emerging issues. Community adaptation is not the primary focus of this project, but the project objectives include the acquisition and appropriate consultative distribution of scientific information to support adaptation efforts.

5



Activities

Research activities for 2012-13 are structured according to milestones established in last year’s report.

Milestone 1: Coastal erosion and response to changes in forcing and sea levels

Yukon and NWT coast of the Beaufort Sea in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region

• Under the Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment (BREA), in collaboration with the Geological Survey of Canada (NRCan), Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Parks Canada and other partners, we initiated a synthesis analysis and gaps assessment to capture 40 years of coastal geoscience data, much of it non-digital, to make it available within a GIS framework and to update surveys where feasible (Manson and Whalen with NI Forbes).

• Time-series shoreline vectors covering large parts of the Yukon coast, Mackenzie Delta, Richards Island, and Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula were assembled and analyzed for time-varying erosion rates on the Beaufort coast (Whalen with NI Forbes).

• Shallow-marine surveys with an interferometric sidescan Geoswath device, principally in Pauline Cove, but also in Thetis Bay and around Collinson Head, provided new high-resolution bathymetry, complemented by a suite of nearshore marine grab samples to be analyzed for CNS, ∆14C, δ13C and grain size (Lantuit).

• Sediment and carbon sources and sinks for the nearshore of Herschel Island were identified and quantified using remotely sensed imagery, bathymetric and sidescan surveys, shallow seismic profiles, and the interpretation of sediment cores (Lantuit).

• Two weather stations and a cut-throat flume, measuring discharge, conductivity, and

temperature of runoff, were installed at a slump site on Herschel Island (Lantuit).

• Several sites on Herschel Island, in most cases natural exposures in retrogressive thaw slumps, were selected to be representative for sampling. In total, 42 samples of massive ground ice and ice wedges were obtained for determination of DOC and further hydrochemical (stable water isotopes, major anion and cations) and sedimentological parameters (particulate carbon content of sediment inclusions)(Lantuit).

• Collected ice samples to identify ground ice origin (atmospheric vs. ground water) using the new tools of environmental isotopes and molar gas ratios of N and Ar (Fox with NI Pollard).

• Created a timeline to quantify the stages of re-vegetation following retrogressive thaw slumping on Herschel Island, YT, and investigated vegetation community differences between slumps (Cray-Sloan with NI Pollard).

• Lake sediments from Trout Lake, YT, were collected to provide a palynological record of the poorly-defined postglacial environmental history of the Yukon coast (Fritz).

• Sea-level change projections and model refinement across the Canadian Arctic

• Glacial isostatic adjustment modelling of relative sea-level observations proceeded successfully at Pacific Geoscience Centre (Sidney, BC) and at University of Victoria, using high-performance computing facilities available through Westgrid at University of Victoria (Simon with NI James).

• A benchmarking activity has been proceeding in parallel to the modelling with nearly a dozen European modellers to confirm the results of sea-level calculations (Simon with NI James).

• Sea-level projections were carried out for more locations in Arctic Canada. An important aspect was incorporating more realistic depictions (location, spatial extent) and projections of the mass change of mountain glaciers and ice caps (NI James).

6



• On the west coast of Hudson Bay, a continuous GPS site was installed at Rankin Inlet by the Geodetic Survey Division (Craymer with NI James).

Coastal impacts of falling and rising sea levels

• Diversion of effort to the Beaufort Sea under BREA funding (see above) deflected this activity from Hudson Bay for the time-being.

• Five subsidence monitoring sites in the Mackenzie Delta were reoccupied with GPS receivers to add another epoch to the time series of natural subsidence measurements in the outer delta and a solar-powered continuous GPS site at Kuluarpak Channel recorded data successfully throughout the year with no winter gaps (Craymer with NI Forbes).

• Sedimentation rates in the outer Mackenzie Delta were determined by reoccupation of SET-defined microtopographic points tied to GPS-monoitored monuments.

Coastal impacts of changing storms, sea ice, and wave conditions

• Developed a new coastal wave algorithm in collaboration with the NRCan (Shippee with NI Atkinson).

• New Ph.D student assembled a literature review of fog and low visibility in general and as pertains to Arctic regions. She was also tasked with gaining process understanding in the context of an ice-covered marine area and learning the computer system she will need to perform the required analyses (Khalilian with NI Atkinson).

• Photographic and anecdotal evidence was located documenting the 2005 ice pile-up event that caused considerable damage along the water front at Hall Beach, Foxe Basin, NU. The Beaufort Sea BREA program (see above) included a compilation and synthesis of historical sea-ice data for that region. Photographic, anecdotal,

and literature data on coastal ice conditions were assembled and a daily record of Mackenzie-Beaufort breakup was developed in collaboration with NRCan colleagues (Whalen and Fraser with NI Forbes).

• In connection with the MV Nuliajuk multibeam surveys (see below), we documented exceptional multiyear ice incursion into Frobisher Bay and late ice clearance from Cumberland Sound in the summer of 2012.

Milestone 2: Coastal change detection (shorelines and habitats)

Scoping for sentinel sites and change detection project

• Under the BREA program, we reoccupied 14 coastal survey sites dating back from 17 to 38 years from the Yukon-Alaska border to Atkinson Point on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula. Time-lapse cameras were installed at two locations to capture rapid thermo-mechanical degradation observed during the field program. Unfortunately, the camera at Tibjak Point was lost to erosion within one week and condensation on the Toker Point camera degraded the imagery (Manson, Konopczak, Fraser, Whalen with NI Forbes).

• As part of a long-term monitoring dataset, differential GPS data points were recorded along the headwalls of five retrogressive thaw slumps situated along the coast of Herschel Island, YT. GPS data were post-processed using PPP and input into a multi-decadal GIS for morphological change analysis (Simpson with NI Pollard).

• Topographic GPS and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys were completed at active and stabilized retrogressive thaw slumps sites on Herschel Island, YT. Work included follow-up monitoring of sites identified in 2011, using Radarsat synthetic aperture radar data to detect and measure a range of landscape changes (Simpson, Angelopoulos, and Fox with NI Pollard).

7



Benthic nearshore and intertidal change detection

• Multibeam surveys carried out from MV Nuliajuk in collaboration with Government of Nunavut (GN) and UNB Seabed Mapping Group (link to project 2.6) included bathymetric mapping of previously sampled sites in Iqaluit Harbour and approaches in preparation for follow-up sampling for change detection in the coming year (NIs Hughes Clarke, Forbes, Bell, Aitken, Edinger).

• RTK surveys of intertidal flats in Koojesse Inlet, Iqaluit, were repeated and analysis undertaken to investigate year-to-year change in elevation (Hatcher with NI Forbes).

Seabed and benthic habitat mapping

• In partnership with project 2.6, UNB, and GN with their research vessel MV Nuliajuk, undertook extensive surveys of nearshore seabed in Lake Melville and Anaktalak Bay, Labrador, and along the east coast of Baffin Island from Iqaluit to Clyde River, Nunavut (NIs Hughes Clarke, Bell, Forbes)

• Surveys included 3.5 kHz subbottom sounding and multibeam bathymetry to search for submerged shoreline features in Patricia Bay (Clyde River, NU), Broughton Harbour and nearby waters (vicinity of Qikiqtarjuaq, NU), Boas Fiord, other sites inside Durban Harbour and Exeter Sound, and Pangnirtung (Cowan with NIs Hughes Clarke, Forbes, Bell).

• Surveys also provided detailed bathymetry in Broughton Harbour for approaches to a proposed large-vessel wharf to support Canadian Coast Guard, Royal Canadian Navy, and sealift to Qikiqtarjuaq (NI Hughes Clarke).

• Erosion and flooding hazards, Mackenzie Delta

• See Milestone 1 above (Coastal impacts of falling and rising sea levels).

Milestone 3: Science for sustainability in Arctic coastal communities

Iqaluit coastal hazards

• Detailed coastal mapping completed, including shoreline, intertidal, and subtidal areas (Hatcher with NI Forbes)

• Analysis of coastal infrastructure elevations in relation to current and projected extreme water levels (Hatcher with NI Forbes).

• Analysis of changing sea ice and wave conditions in inner Frobisher Bay using multiple data sources (Hatcher with NI Forbes).

• Thesis due for completion by April 2013 (Hatcher with NI Forbes).

Iqaluit sustainability planning

• Setback due to withdrawal of student identified to undertake this work.

• In collaboration with C-Change and the City of Iqaluit, Meagan Leach, Director of Engineering and Sustainability co-authored a paper on implications of landscape hazards and climate change for sustainability in an Arctic coastal community, presented at Caribbean 50-50, Grand Cayman, in June 2012 (Leach, Hatcher, Manson et al. with NIs Allard and Forbes).

• Hatcher thesis results and other data sources identified in the November 2012 IRIS-2 workshop contributed to sustainability planning in the City of Iqaluit.

• In collaboration with C-Change, GN, and the City of Iqaluit, Meagan Leach and Colleen Healey (GN Climate Change Coordinator) contributed to development of a Canadian-Caribbean Community of Practice to foster cross-fertilization and knowledge exchange among community adaptation practitioners (NI Forbes).

8



Nunatsiavut sustainable community partnership

• Together with the Environment Division of the Nunatsiavut Government (NG) and in partnership with the Joint Management Committee of Nunatsiavut, we have developed the SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik (Sustainable Communities) initiative, the overall goal of which is to develop best practices and provide support and guidance for enhancing community sustainability in Nunatsiavut (NI Bell).

• Participated in a series of five community workshops to understand current community priorities, challenges and opportunities; see reports in Publications section (Allice and Riedlsperger with NI Bell).

• Through the Sustainable Communities program we have initiated a series of literature reviews presenting the state of the art of northern housing design and community planning and development to guide the creation of climate change adapted, sustainability plans for each Nunatsiavut community, regional infrastructure codes and standards that accommodate projected climate changes, and a housing design guidebook (Riedlsperger and NI Bell with NG).

Communications at national level

• Presented findings in northern radio and print media (CBC North and others) (NIs Bell, Forbes, Allard and others)

• Contributed to IRIS regions 1 and 2 reports and workshops in Iqaluit and Vancouver (NIs Forbes, Bell, Allard and others).

• Presented results at ArcticNet Annual Science Meeting in Vancouver, December 2012 (NIs Bell, Forbes, Allard, James and students).

• Invited project presentation at the Northern Lights 2012 Symposium and Trade Convention, Ottawa (NI Bell and collaborator Sheldon).

Communications at international level

• Presented findings at international IPY 2012 Conference in Montreal, April 2012 (NIs Bell, Forbes, Pollard, Allard, Edinger, James, Atkinson, Aitken with students).

• Communicated results at Caribbean 50-50 Conference, Cayman Island, in June 2005 (NIs Forbes, Allard with co-authors).

• Presented findings at C-Change Canada-Caribbean Community of Practice meeting, Ottawa, October 2012 (NI Forbes).

• Public lecture at Ecologic Institute, Berlin, November 2012 (NI Forbes).

Results

Coastal erosion and response to changing climate, sea ice and sea levels

Yukon and NWT coast of the Beaufort Sea in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region

Extensive partnerships in the Beaufort Sea region, including Alfred Wegener Institute, Natural Resources Canada, Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment, Parks Canada and others enable an extensive program of coastal erosion surveys, process studies, and analysis. Although clear evidence of accelerated erosion is yet to be demonstrated, active thermal-mechanical erosion underway during August 2012 field programs provided a foretaste of what we may expect under continued climate warming and loss of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea offshore. A combination of warm air temperatures promoting thermal denudation and ocean swell (previously extremely rare in this region) promoting wave abrasion were driving rapid erosion along the entire Beaufort Sea coast from the Alaska-Yukon border to Atkinson Point on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula (Fig. 1). A compilation of shoreline vectors for the Canadian Beaufort Sea at various dates, derived from photogrammetric analysis of air photos and high-resolution satellite imagery,

9



is currently under analysis and will be supplemented by additional student efforts before year-end. The results will provide the most comprehensive data yet assembled on past and current rates of coastal retreat. Visits to a number of archaeological sites in Ivvavik National Park revealed rapid retreat threatening cultural resources in at least two locations. At Stokes Point (Fig. 1), the entire burial site as well as survey markers had been lost to erosion. Use of real-time kinematic GPS survey techniques in previous surveys (e.g. Forbes 1997) will enable us to re-establish survey control and to determine the total retreat and approximate time of site destruction. At a tundra remnant site on Nunaluk Spit, a cabin dating from the 1940s or 1930s, previously recognized as being at threat, was found in 2012 to have its outer wall directly overlying the top of bluff (Fig. 2) and is unlikely to survive another season.

Herschel Island and vicinity was a particular focus of activity again this year with a large contingent from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Potsdam. Surveys of retrogressive thaw slumps revealed that more than 160,000 m3 of soil has eroded into the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2012. Bio-geographical surveys revealed four distinct vegetation zones (recent, intermediate, mature, and undisturbed) related to the

time since stabilization of a retrogressive thaw slump. Ground-penetrating radar mapped the transition zone between disturbed and undisturbed tundra at Collinson Head in 3D and found that (a) the active thaw slump’s trajectory is propagating in the same direction as the previous thaw slump, and (b) the active thaw slump is stabilizing at a lower elevation than the previous thaw slump at the site. The total volume loss of three retrogressive thaw slumps along the shore of Thetis Bay, Herschel Island, decreased from 2007 to 2009, then increased from 2010 to 2012 (Fig. 3). The percentage area loss from all three study slumps along Thetis Bay increased from June 2011 to June 2012.

Figure 2. Log cabin from 1930s or 1940s now at edge of bluff on tundra remnant attached to Nunaluk Spit, Yukon Territory. Photo; D.L. Forbes, 16 August 2012.

Figure 3. Volumetric soil loss over time at three retrogressive thaw slumps on Herschel Island. Source: Simpson and Pollard.

Figure 1. Rapid thermal and wave erosion west of Stokes Point, Ivvavik National Park, Yukon Territory, where a former Inuvialuit archaeological site has been lost to the sea. Photo: D.L. Forbes, 15 August 2012.

10



Although they ranged in area, as a group all Thetis Bay study slumps showed similar percentage area loss (45%) between 2004 and 2012. Measurements from a retrogressive thaw slump outflow channel suggest that dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from thaw slumps is a significant contribution to the nearshore environment.

Vegetation and soil characteristics vary substantially with time since retrogressive thaw slump disturbance. These distinct characteristics are consistent and separable, which allows for the reliable identification of age classes. The diagnostic soil features of a landscape disturbed by thaw slumping are a deep active layer, low relative organic matter and gravimetric water contents, and a neutral pH. The diagnostic vegetation features of a landscape disturbed by thaw slumping are low diversity, grass dominated vegetation communities with a high percent cover of bare ground in the short-term. This is followed after a few hundred years by a forb, dwarf shrub, and bryophyte-dominated community with a high percent cover of litter, and in which Eriophorum vaginatum does not reoccur.

Sea-level change

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling: Starting with the global ICE-5G model (Peltier 2004), regions of Arctic Canada were identified where relative sea-level is either systematically under- or over-predicted when compared to observations (Simon et al. 2012a,b,c) (Fig. 4). Revisions to the ice sheet model have been made to generate better agreement with paleo-sea-level observations. In addition, predictions of present-day vertical crustal motion generated by the revised model have been compared to GPS observations to further constrain the model. In the High Arctic, there may be a significant influence from relatively recent snow and ice mass changes arising from retreat from the Little Ice Age, and this requires further investigation.

The benchmarking has confirmed very good agreement between our numerical methods and code and those

of a number of other researchers using independantly developed methods (Spada et al. 2012).

Sea-level projections have been made for an extended set of Arctic communities and other locations (Fig. 5 and 6) (James et al. 2012a,b,c, 2013). The new projections confirm and extend previous results showing very substantial differences across the Arctic. The differences arise due to differences in vertical land motion and in the uneven distribution of meltwater in the oceans. The sea-level projections are an important

Figure 4. Regions where relative sea-level (RSL) change is either under- or over-predicted by the ICE-5G model.

Figure 5. Locations of communities for which projections are shown in Fig. 6.

11



component of related studies considering coastal stability (Couture et al. 2012, Manson et al. 2012).

Robust sea-level projections near glaciers and ice caps require detailed information on ice location and extent because projections can vary significantly over distances of tens of kilometres. Significant progress has been made in acquiring more realistic depictions and projections of mountain glaciers and ice caps, including those of the Canadian High Arctic. The new information is in the process of being incorporated into projections.

A synthesis volume describing the impacts of climate change (From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007) is being updated. A new section on global and local sea-level change was contributed to the update (Bush et al. 2013) (NI James).

Coastal impacts of changing climate

A literature review undertaken to initiate this sub-project showed that fog and low visibility represent a major hazard in northern communities. Losses in Canada and the US are on par with losses due to severe storms. Almost 40% of aircraft incidents are visibility-related; for Canada over the 1995-2003 period this included 47 fatalities (Transportation Safety Board of Canada).

Economic losses due to delays and diversions are significant. Thousands of dollars are lost every time a large aircraft is delayed or diverted, costs which are passed on to the already high cost of travel in the North.

In connection with the MV Nuliajuk multibeam surveys along the Baffin Island coast (see below), we documented exceptional multiyear ice incursion into Frobisher Bay and late ice clearance from Cumberland Sound in the summer of 2012.

Coastal change detection

Surveys and instrumentation at several Arctic coastal sites are providing the rudiments of an observation network. Temporary time-lapse camera installations in the Mackenzie Delta, along the Beaufort coast, at Hall Beach, NU, and elsewhere could be further developed as sentinel sites. In particular, there is a growing suite of instrumentation at Herschel Island and strong interest among Inuvialuit partners for observatory development there and at Tuktoyaktuk. Discussions will be ongoing over the coming year.

Intertidal systems

Work completed on the geomorphological context for coastal infrastructure hazards in Iqaluit included repetitive surveys across the extensive boulder flats in Koojesse Inlet. in support of this work, a shore-zone classification was developed (Fig. 7) to differentiate the various facies on the tidal flats and to document the locations and extent of beaches as well as the locations and types of shore protection and harbour structures. This was complemented by a combined digital elevation model above and below water, forming the basis for wave shoaling analyses and the identification of infrastructure at risk.

Seabed mapping

A modest investment in ship time through collaboration with the Government of Nunavut and ArcticNet partners in project 2.6 resulted in a highly

Figure 6. Sea-level projections for selected locations (Fig. 5) across the Arctic. Methods are described in James et al.(2011).

12



successful shallow marine mapping program extending from Lake Melville, Labrador (in collaboration with Project 4.6), to Clyde River, Nunavut over several months from July-November 2012. The GN research vessel MV Nuliajuk was employed for these surveys with personnel and equipment from the Ocean Mapping Group (OMG) at the University of New Brunswick and scientific personnel from the Department of Geography at Memorial University of Newfoundland. The vessel proved to be very quiet, providing an excellent acoustic platform. The scientific results are genuinely exciting, providing clear imagery and unequivocal evidence for submerged postglacial shorelines on the outer eastern fringe of Baffin Island. Relict outwash deltas and sandur plains below present sea level were mapped at two locations in Boas Fiord and in an unmapped moraine-delimited bay inside Durban Harbour (Fig. 8). Other submerged shoreline features discovered through this mapping program included near shore benches and submerged boulder barricades in 14-16 m present water near Qikiqtarjuaq (Fig. 9).

Mapping of several active outwash prodelta slopes in the head of Mermaid Fiord and other unnamed

fjords inside Exeter Sound showed complex channel morphology and other evidence of active sediment transport. These features are largely absent from the relict submerged deltas, indicating that these have either suffered degradation of the slope morphology or been buried by a veneer of mud. The morphological distinction between active and relict deltas provides clear evidence for recent submergence at Clyde River, where the shallow submerged delta has very subdued prodelta morphology.

Erosion and flooding hazards, Mackenzie Delta

The outer delta lies north of the tree line and has very low relief (predominantly <2 m with extensive areas <0.5 m MSL datum). Much of the delta front is

Figure 8. Colour shaded-relief bathymetric image showing submerged relict postglacial outwash delta with a lip at 43 m present water depth in unnamed bay inside Durban Harbour, eastern Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island.

Figure 7. Shore-zone classification for Koojesse Inlet, Iqaluit waterfront from the airport to Apex. Source: Scott Hatcher thesis (in prep.).

13



retreating at rates averaging about 2 m/year (ranging up to 15 m/year). Subtle levees are present along major channels while some inter-channel areas show evidence of slow inundation. The delta is subject to annual flooding and overbank sedimentation during spring breakup and intermittent storm-surge flooding at other times of the year (Pisaric et al. 2011, Kokelj et al. 2012). Rapid deposition (centimetres per year) occurs on levees, but sedimentation rates remote from channels may be a few millimetres per year, of the same order as rates of surface subsidence (approximately 0-8 mm/year). Combined with recent projections of sea level rise, these results suggest the potential for accelerated inundation and loss of critical avian nesting habitat (Forbes et al. 2012a).

Science for sustainable Arctic communities

As documented in Forbes et al. (2012a), challenges to sustainability in Iqaluit include:

• remote Arctic island location;

• cold climate;

• limited transportation options and associated high costs;

• rapid population growth;

• linked to growth, housing shortages and added service demands;

• $40 M infrastructure deficit compounded by rapid growth;

• mixed income and traditional subsistence economies; and

• a range of social and economic pressures affecting adaptive capacity.

Landscape and coastal hazard issues identified as relevant to climate-change adaptation and sustainability planning include:

• requirement for a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM);

• surficial geology (including unbonded saline permafrost);

• permafrost and ground ice;

• differential thaw subsidence associated with ice-rich terrain;

• freshwater supply including reservoir capacity and backup sources;

• stormwater runoff;

• sea-level rise;

• coastal flood and wave hazards; and

• changes in sea ice – coastal hazards, subsistence impacts, waves.

A topographic DEM for Iqaluit had been produced by digital photogrammetry from stereo Geo-Eye imagery by Paul Budkewitsch (then of NRCan/CCRS, now AANDC) and was made available to the project. This was coupled with ground survey data over the tidal flats at low tide and with single-beam bathymetry in the harbour to generate a seamless DEM for the city waterfront (Fig. 10). Subsequent multibeam surveys from MV Nuliajuk in late October 2012 acquired data to provide added detail for the subtidal zone.

Figure 9. Eastward increase in depths of submerged shoreline features mapped in 2012 from Qikiqtarjuaq to Cape Dyer, northeast Cumberland Peninsula, Baffin Island. Easternmost point is the delta shown in Figure 8.

14



The SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik initiative has as its overall goal to inform best practices and provide guidance for enhancing community sustainability in Nunatsiavut. It has received strong support from the Joint Management Committee of the Nunatsiavut Government as well as communities along the North coast. The objective of Phase I was to understand current community priorities, challenges and opportunities through a series of workshops with focus groups from each community (Goldhar et al. 2012a,b,c,d,e,f) (Fig. 11). While acknowledging local contexts and priorities, clear themes related to community sustainability emerged across the region:

• Infrastructure, housing and community development – enhance design (building lot and structure, water and sewer infrastructure), durability, cultural appropriateness, environmental suitability and life span of the built environment;

• Valued spaces and places – protect natural spaces, important buildings and landmarks, trails and roads (both traditional and modern), native vegetation and water bodies;

• Energy security – improved access to and reliability of energy (diesel, oil, and wood) and support alternative/renewable energy and energy efficiency;

• Food security – support healthy families through improved access to affordable, high quality, diverse country and market foods;

• Transportation and emergency services – improve critical transportation and emergency infrastructure, including airports and wharfs; establish public transportation in larger communities; facilitate open discussion of a road network connecting coastal communities and Goose Bay;

• Safe communities – advance human health and support a healthy environment by addressing issues related to water, dust, contaminated sites, diesel generators, quarries and garbage dumps in and around communities.

Discussion

In our annual report last year, we highlighted a number of key information gaps identified in the State of the

Figure 11: Community workshop held in Rigolet in June 2012 as part of the SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik (Sustainable Communities) initiative to reflect on the challenges of recent community development in terms of addressing community needs, values and goals and identify some of the obstacles to and opportunities for building a more sustainable community.

Figure 10. Grey-scale shaded-relief topography for Iqaluit waterfront (courtesy of Paul Budkewitsch) and colour shaded-relief image of seamless topographic and bathymetry elevation model for the intertidal and subtidal zones. Source: Scott Hatcher thesis (in prep.).

15



Arctic Coast 2010 report (Forbes 2011). Here we review initial progress on several of these fronts.

“Development of more robust projections of sea-level rise for residents and decision-makers”

The amount of past sea-level change and the rate of present-day uplift varies from location to location across Arctic Canada. Vertical land motion affects projections of relative sea-level change, because uplift reduces the amount of sea-level rise that is experienced at a location, while subsidence adds to the amount of relative sea-level rise. Understanding these rates is an essential prerequisite for robust sea-level projections at the community scale (James et al. 2011, 2013, Bush et al. 2013). Projections of sea-level change for the Arctic require computation of meltwater distribution for selected scenarios of global sea-level change that specify the sources (thermal expansion, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, mountain glaciers and ice caps). This requires the compilation of existing ice mass extent and projections of their mass change into the future. The existing network of continuous GPS sites located on bedrock is sparse in the Arctic, and other methods are needed to estimate vertical crustal motion (Simon et al. 2012a). An improved model of GIA for the Canadian Arctic will explain past sea-level changes and extrapolate the sparse observations of present-day vertical crustal motion. As well, it will lead to a better understanding of the history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, a vestige of which remains on Baffin Island as the Barnes Ice Cap (Simon et al. 2012b,c).

Good progress in the modelling of the glacial isostatic adjustment is expected to provide additional constraints on vertical crustal motion that will facilitate better constrained projections of sea-level. This is a work in progress. More fundamentally, the revised ice load history arising from the glacial isostatic adjustment modelling may have implications for the global water budget that generated about 120 m of global sea-level rise since that Last Glacial Maximum about 21,000 calendar years ago.Building on our progress in acquiring more realistic depictions and projections of mountain glaciers and ice caps,

we expect to develop an improved suite of sea-level projections for Arctic communities in the coming year (James et al. 2011, 2012a,b,c).

“Anticipating increased coastal erosion in the Arctic, the lack of a systematic circumpolar coastal observing network is a critical gap”

Theory suggests that warmer air and sea-surface temperatures, combined with rising sea-levels and more open water will drive an acceleration in rates of coastal retreat, but evidence from the Canadian Arctic coast remains equivocal (Solomon 2005, St-Hilaire-Gravel et al. 2012). There is some evidence for acceleration on the north Alaska coast (Mars and Houseknecht 2007, Jones et al. 2009), but cyclic patterns and short-term records may obscure real trends in erosion rates (Vasiliev et al. 2005). There is an obvious requirement for an enhanced program of observations. Our work addresses the need for systematic long-term observations and it is our goal to develop observing systems in partnership with Inuvialuit or other partners, wherein Herschel Island, Tuktoyaktuk, and other sites may serve as nodes in the observation network. Research activities on Axel Heiberg Island and at several communities in Nunavut are also fulfilling a SAON role in both coastal and permafrost observing systems (Forbes et al. 2012c,d, James et al. 2013). These efforts will contribute to realization of an Arctic Circumpolar Coastal Observatory Network as proposed at the outset of IPY and recognized in the SAON process. While this is clearly beyond the scope of our individual project, it is a recognized need both at the community and regional level (e.g. in consultations with the Inuvialuit Lands Administration) and at a circumpolar scale (Forbes 2011). This project focuses primarily on the science of detecting changes in forcing and impacts on Arctic coasts. We now have 10 years of data tracking annual change in coastal thermokarst (Simpson et al. 2012, Sloan et al. 2012) and 40 years of coastal retreat data from multiple site surveys and remote sensing imagery for the Beaufort Sea coast (Manson et al. 2012). At the same time, we are gradually building data sets on coastal change

16



in other parts of the Canadian Arctic (Couture et al. 2012, Hatcher et al. 2012, St-Hilaire et al. 2012).

“The fate of Arctic deltas and salt marshes faced with rising sea levels and wave energy in the context of growing human development pressure requires more attention”

Over the past year, the project has examined northern deltas in a number of contexts. BREA funding enabled a return to the Mackenzie Delta to determine rates of sediment accumulation over the preceding two years – critical data for determining the elevation balance between aggradation and subsidence in relation to sea-level rise (Forbes and Hansom, 2012). The time series of GPS observations to measure natural subsidence was extended and a poster presented at the IPY 2012 conference summarized results and the implications for inundation and loss of avian nesting habitat (Forbes et al. 2012b).This work is now being prepared for formal publication. A previous analysis of coastal erosion in the vicinity of the Coppermine Delta (at Kugluktuk, NU) was extended using more recent satellite imagery by ArcticNet associate Dustin Whalen (NRCan). On Baffin Island, multibeam surveys using the MV Nuliajuk demonstrated the difference between submerged, relict, inactive prodelta slopes (smooth with subdued relief) and active deltas with complex prodelta morphology (Forbes 2012, Cowan et al. 2012).

“Need for new, integrated monitoring approaches to document the nature of environmental change and human interaction with biophysical conditions in the Arctic coastal zone”

Northern communities are very dependent on the transportation sector in order to conduct economic activity and maintain their way of life. The ‘transportation sector’ in the northern context covers a wide range of activities and scales, and includes movement over land, sea and air by whatever means is relevant for consideration at a given location under study: on foot or via marine small craft for subsistence, by terrestrial road/ice road for industrial applications, large ship/barge for sea lift, industry, and tourism,

and all scales of aircraft operations, including animal reconnaissance via light helicopter, small fixed wing operations, and large air carriers connecting to the south. All of these activities can be impacted very dramatically by the occurrence of fog and other types of low-visibility events. There has been little work to systematically analyze the occurrence of these events. This includes work to establish the basic climatology of visibility types and how they vary by season and by region, and it includes examining the weather patterns that favour the occurrence of various types of low visibility. Given the impact of these types of weather events, a rough assessment of the possible change in frequency of occurrence into the future would aid planning, in particular infrastructure development.

“Future efforts need to focus on adaptive management in the face of change, building community adaptive capacity and resilience”

We are addressing this issue on a number fronts, through collaboration with the C-Change ICURA project, partnerships with other network researchers, and engagement with decision-makers. We have close ties to planners, engineers, policy and decision-makers in the City of Iqaluit, the Government of Nunavut, Government of the Northwest Territories, Inuvialuit Regional Corporation and Joint Management Committee, Nunatsiavut Government, and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, among others. We are playing a key advisory role in the SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik (Sustainable Communities) intiative in Nunatsiavut (including increased cooperation with Project 4.6 in 2013-14) and supporting sustainability efforts in Iqaluit and other Arctic communities (Forbes et al. 2012a,c,d, Hatcher et al. 2012).

Conclusion

Over the past year the project has made exemplary progress on a number of fronts, addressing priority topics under three milestones, bringing new students

17



and new NIs with additional skill sets into the NCE, and expanding the scope to address key knowledge gaps identified in the State of the Arctic Coast 2010 report. The project supported the preparation of IRIS reports in three of the four regions, disseminated knowledge and expertise through a number of workshops, national and international conferences, public lectures, and media presentations. The mounting of a major inshore mapping program in partnership with GN and UNB (ArcticNet project 2.6) on the one-year old GN research vessel MV Nuliajuk required considerable innovation and flexibility, but paid a handsome reward in the mapping of previously uncharted waters. Results included discovery of previously unknown submerged shorelines along the east Baffin coast, characterization of seabed habitat to support benthic resource studies, and acquisition of detailed bathymetry in harbour approaches. On the community sustainability front, the Sustainable Communities project in Nunatsiavut and the Sustainability Plan in the City of Iqaluit are setting a high bar. We aim over the coming year to build linkages between these projects to create opportunities for sharing of approaches, challenges, insights, and successful strategies.

Acknowledgements

The field program was supported by the Government of Nunavut, the Nunatsiavut Government, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Polar Continental Shelf Program, the Western Arctic Research Centre (Aurora Research Institute), Yukon Parks, the Alfred Wegener Institute, and the Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office. The Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division of the Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), significantly advanced the work through funding for research assistants. The NRCan Climate Change Geoscience Program provided funds, and the Geodetic Survey Division of NRCan provided technical expertise for the installation of a continuous GPS site in Rankin Inlet, as well as ongoing work on subsidence

in the Mackenzie Delta. Access to high-performance computing facilities at the University of Victoria, provided by Westgrid, is gratefully acknowledged. Additional support for this project was provided by NSERC, NSTP, NRCan and the Geological Survey of Canada, Parks Canada, Yukon Government Heritage Branch, McGill University, the University of New Brunswick, and Memorial University of Newfoundland.

References

(* denotes ArcticNet output)

*Bush, E., Loder, J. and James, T.S. 2013. Overview of cimate trends and projections for Canada. Chapter 2 in 2013 National Assessment Update. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa (in revision).

*Couture, N.J., Atkinson, D.E., Forbes, D.L., Fraser, P., James, T.S., Jenner, K.A., Manson, G.K., Szlavko, B., Taylor, R.B. and Whalen, D. 2012. Coastal stability assessment in the Canadian Arctic. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 02190.

*Cowan, B., Bell, T. and Forbes, D.L. 2012. A first look at the submerged postglacial sea-level record of eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, 118-119.

Forbes, D.L. 1997. Coastal Erosion and Nearshore Profile Variability in the Southern Beaufort Sea, Ivvavik National Park, Yukon Territory. Geological Survey of Canada, Open File3531, 28 p., 5 tables, 34 figures, 2 appendices.

*Forbes, D.L. (editor). 2011. State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook. International Arctic Science Committee, Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, International Permafrost Association. Helmholtz-Zentrum, Geesthacht, Germany, 178 p., http://arcticcoasts.org.

18



*Forbes, D.L. 2012. Glaciated coasts. In: Sedimentology and geomorphology of coasts and estuaries (Hansom, J.D. and Flemming, B., eds.), in: Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science (Wolansky, E. and McClusky, D., eds.). Elsevier, vol. 3, 223-243.

*Forbes, D.L. and Hansom, J.D. 2012. Polar coasts. In: Sedimentology and geomorphology of coasts and estuaries (Hansom, J.D. and Flemming, B., eds.), in: Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science (Wolansky, E. and McClusky, D., eds.). Elsevier, vol. 3, 254-293.

*Forbes, D.L., Leach, M., Allard, M., Campbell, R., Hatcher, S.V., LeBlanc, A.-M., Manson, G.K., and Short, N. 2012a. Implications of landscape hazards and climate change for sustainability in an Arctic coastal municipality. Caribbean Conference 50-50: Surveying the Past, Mapping the Future, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, March 2012.

*Forbes, D.L., Whalen, D., Craymer, M.R., James, T.S., Couture, N.J., Jenner, K.A., Manson, G.K. and Marsh, P. 2012b. Stability and ecological integrity of the Mackenzie Delta. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 02355.

*Forbes, D.L., Bell, T., Smith, I.R., James, T.S., Manson, G.K. and St-Hilaire-Gravel, D. 2012c. Landscape instability in Nunavut coastal communities. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 02362.

*Forbes, D.L., Bell, T., Hughes Clarke, J., Edinger, E., Allard, M., Cowan, B., Hatcher, S.V., LeBlanc, A.-M., Manson, G.K., Short, N., Smith, I.R. and St-Hilaire-Gravel, D. 2012d. Landscape and seabed mapping for safe and sustainable eastern Arctic (IRIS-2) communities. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, 20.

*Goldhar, C., Andersen, T., Community Members of Nain, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Allice, I., 2012a, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Nain workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 14.

*Goldhar, C., Andersen, T., Gear, D., Jacques, H., Piercey, W., Woolfrey, C., Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., 2012b, Sustainable Communities Joint Management Committee Workshop Report., Nunatsiavut Government, 17.

*Goldhar, C., Gear, D., Community Members of Postville, Bell, T.,Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012c, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Postville workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 14.

*Goldhar, C., Jacques, H., Community Members of Makkovik, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012d, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Makkovik workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 13.

*Goldhar, C., Piercey, W., Community Members of Hopedale, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Allice, I., 2012e, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Hopedale workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 11.

*Goldhar, C., Woolfrey, C., Community Members of Rigolet, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012f, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Rigolet workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 15.

*Hatcher, S.V., Forbes, D.L. and Manson, G.K. 2012. Changing exposure to coastal hazards in Iqaluit, Nunavut. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 01431.

*James, T.S., Simon, K.M., Forbes, D.L., Dyke, A.S. and Mate, D.J. 2011. Sea-level Projections for Five Pilot Communities of the Nunavut Climate Change Partnership. Geological Survey of Canada, Open File 6715, 23 pp.

19



*James, T.S., Simon, K.M., Forbes, D.L., Dyke, A.S., Carriere, S. and Mate, D. 2012a. Projections of sea-level change in Arctic Canada. Nunavut Mining Symposium, Iqaluit, Nunavut, April 2012a.

*James, T., Simon, K., Forbes, D., Dyke, A., Carriere, S. and Mate, D. 2012b. Projections of relative sea-level change for the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 02321.

*James, T.S., Burgess, D., Cogley, G., Darlington, A., Henton, J., Forbes, D., Dyke, A.S. and Mate, D. 2012c. Vertical land motion, sea-level fingerprinting, and projections of relative sea-level change in northern Canada. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, p. 66-67.

*James, T.S., Whalen, D.J.R., Jenner, K.A., Hatcher, S.V., Ulmi, M., Forbes, D.L., Manson, G.K., Henton, J. and Craymer, M.R. 2013. Coastal geoscience for sustainable development in Nunavut: 2012 activities. In Summary of Activities 2012, Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office (in press).

Jones, B.M., Arp, C.D., Jorgenson, M.T., Hinkel, K.M., Schmutz, J.A. and Flint, P.L. 2009. Increase in the rate and uniformity of coastline erosion in Arctic Alaska. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L03503, doi:10.1029/2008GL036205.

Kokelj, S.V., Lantz, T.C., Solomon, S., Pisaric, M.F.J., Keith, D., Morse, P., Thienpont, J.R., Smol, J.P. and Esagok, D. 2012. Using multiple sources of knowledge to investigate northern environmental change: regional ecological impacts of a storm surge in the outer Mackenzie Delta, NWT. Arctic, 65 (3).

*Manson, G.K., Whalen, D., Fraser, P., Jenner, K.A., Forbes, D.L. and James, T.S. 2012. Compilation of coastal geoscience information for environmental assessment in the Beaufort Sea. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, p. 151.

Mars, J.C. and Houseknecht, D.W. 2007. Quantitative remote sensing study indicates doubling of coastal erosion in past 50 yr along a

segment of the Arctic coast of Alaska. Geology, 35, 583-586.

Peltier, W. R. 2004. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: the ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 32, 111–149.

Pisaric, M.F.J., Thienpont, J.R., Kokelj, S.V., Nesbitt, H., Lantz, T.C., Solomon, S. and Smol, J.P. 2011. Impacts of a recent storm surge on an Arctic delta ecosystem examined in the context of the last millennium. Proceedings National Academy of Sciences [USA], 108 (22), 8960-8965.

*Simon, K. M., James, T.S., Dyke, A. S., Forbes, D. L. 2012a. Improving the relative sea-level history and glacial isostatic adjustment models along the northwest coast of Hudson Bay. IPY 2012 Conference: from Knowledge to Action, Montréal, abstract 02256.

*Simon, K.M., James, T.S., Dyke, A.S., Forbes, D.L. and Henton, J.A. 2012b. Regional analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment in northern Canada: improvements to the Laurentide Ice Sheet history constrained by relative sea-level and GPS data. Abstract G21A-0875, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 2012.

*Simon, K.M., James, T.S., Dyke, A.S., Forbes, D.L. and Henton, J.A. 2012c. Glacial Isostatic adjustment in northern Canada: improving Innuitian and Laurentide Ice Sheet reconstructions using relative sea-level and GPS data. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, p. 96.

*Simpson, J., Pollar, W.H. and Cray, H. 2012. Erosion rates of retrogressive thaw slumps, Herschel Island, Yukon Territory. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, p. 172-173.

*Sloan, H.A. and Pollard, W.H. 2012. Vegetation patterns of retrogressive thaw slumps, Herschel Island, southern Beaufort Sea, Yukon Territory, Canada. Programme, ArcticNet Annual Scientific Meeting 2012, Vancouver, p. 173-174.

20



Solomon, S.M. 2005. Spatial and temporal variability of shoreline change in the Beaufort-Mackenzie region, Northwest Territories, Canada. Geo-Marine Letters, 25, 127-137.

*Spada, G., Barletta, V.R., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., James, T.S., Simon, K., Riva, R.E.M., Martinec, Z., Gasperini, P., Lund, B., Wolf, D., Vermeersen, L.L.A., King, M.A. 2012. Benchmarking and testing the ‘Sea Level Equation’: the COST ES0701 Experience. EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, April 2012.

*St-Hilaire-Gravel, D., Forbes, D.L. and Bell, T. 2012. Multitemporal analysis of a gravel-dominated coastline in the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Journal of Coastal Research, 28 (2), 421-441.

Vasiliev, A., Kanevskiy, M., Cherkashov, G. and Vanshtein, B. 2005. Coastal dynamics at the Barents and Kara Sea key sites. Geo-Marine Letters, 25, 110-120.

Publications

(All ArcticNet refereed publications are available on the ASTIS website (http://www.aina.ucalgary.ca/arcticnet/).

Allice, I.,Wolf, J., and Bell, T., 2012, The impact of changing and variable winter climate on the experience of freedom in two Labrador communities., International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Angelopoulos, M.C., Pollard, W.H., Cray, H.A., Couture, N.J., Krautblatter, M. and Lantuit, H., 2012, Biogeophysical characterization of polycyclic thermokarst on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14 (poster).

Bell, T. and Wolf, A.J., 2012, Knowledge to action in remote communities of Labrador: Reports from the field., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Bell, T., Leblanc P., Hachey K., Healey C., Tremblay M., Ford J., Tagoona K., Loring E., and Shirley J., 2012, ArcticNet’s Eastern Arctic Integrated Regional Impact Study (IRIS-2): Building communication networks, Engaging scientists and decision makers, Cultivating knowledge to action., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Bell, T., Way, R. Chadbourn, J., Melanson, A., Barrand, N.E., and Sharp, M.J, 2012, Fifty years of glacier change in the Torngat Mountains, Labrador, Canada., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Brown, R., Lemay, M., Allard, M., Barrand, N.E., Barrette, C., Begin, Y., Bell, T., Bernier, M., Bleau, S., Chaumont, D., Dibike, Y., Frigon, A., Leblanc, P., Paquin, D., Sharp, M.J. and Way, R, 2012, Climate variability and change in the Canadian Eastern Subarctic IRIS region (Nunavut and Nunatsiavut), p. 57-93.

Bush, E., J. Loder, T.S. James, 2012, Overview of Climate Trends and Projections for Canada, 2013 National Assessment Update, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division.

Couture, N., Pollard, W.H. and Lantuit, H, 2012, Coastal Environment, Herschel Island Qikiqtaryuk: A Natural and Cultural History of Yukon’s Arctic Island, Herschel Island Qikiqtaryuk: A Natural and Cultural History of Yukon’s Arctic Island, Wildlife Management Advisory Council (North Slope), 138.

Couture, N.J., D.E. Atkinson, D.L. Forbes, P. Fraser, T.S. James, K.A. Jenner, G.K. Manson, B. Szlavko, R.B. Taylor, and D. Whalen, 2012, Coastal Stability Assessment in the Canadian Arctic, International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Cowan, B., Bell, T., and Forbes, D.L, 2012, A first look at the submerged postglacial sea-level record of eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14 (poster).

Cray, H.A., 2012, A characterization of vegetation succession patterns related to retrogressive thaw

21



slumps on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada., MSc Thesis, McGill University, Montreal Canada.

Edinger, E., Aitken, A., Bell, T., and Gobbie, M., 2012, Bedrock and surficial geology influence on benthic marine habitats, and sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic effects: Arctic Bay, Northwest Baffin Island., International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Forbes D.L, T. Bell, Hughes Clarke J., Edinger E., Allard M., Cowan J.E.C., Hatcher S.V, LeBlanc A.-M., Manson G.K., Short N., Smith I.R., and St-Hilaire-Gravel D., 2012, Landscape and seabed mapping for safe and sustainable Eastern Arctic (IRIS -2) communities., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Forbes, Bell, T., D.L, Smith, I.R., James, T.S., Manson, G.K., and St. Hilaire-Gravel, D., 2012, Landscape instability in Nunavut coastal communities, International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Forbes, D.L., Leach, M., Allard, M., Campbell, R., Hatcher, S.V., LeBlanc, A.-M., Manson, G.K. and Short, N., 2012, Implications of landscape hazards and climate change for sustainability in an Arctic coastal municipality, Caribbean Conference 50-50: Surveying the Past, Mapping the Future, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, March 2012.

Forbes, D.L., Whalen, D., Craymer, M.R., James, T.S., Couture, N.J., Jenner, K.A., Manson, G.K. and Marsh, P., 2012, Stability and ecological integrity of the Mackenzie Delta, International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27 (poster).

Fritz, M., Herzschuh, U., Wetterich, S., Pollard, W.H. and Lantuit, 2012, 16,000 years of climate and environmental change from east Beringia (Northern Yukon Territory, Canada), Internation Polar Year Conference, Montreal, April 22-27.

Fritz, M., Lantuit, H., Meyer, H., Opel, T., Couture, N. and Pollard, W.H, 2012, Dissolved Organic

Carbon (DOC) in Ground Ice: Is It Significant?, Tenth International Conference on Permafrost, Salekhard, Russia, 25 June 2012.

Fritz, M., Wetterich, S., Schirrmeister, L., Meyer, H., Lantuit, H. and Pollard, W.H, 2012, Coastal permafrost landscape development in the northern Yukon – East Beringia vs. Laurentide Ice – From Knowledge to Action, Internation Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Fritz, M., Wetterich, S., Schirrmeister, L., Meyer, H., Lantuit, H., Preusser, F. and Pollard, W.H., 2012, Eastern Beringia and beyond: Late Wisconsinan and Holocene landscape dynamics along the Yukon Coastal Plain, Canada., Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. doi:10,1016/j.paleo.2011.12.015, 18.

Goldhar, C., Andersen, T., Community Members of Nain, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Allice, I., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Nain workshop report, Nunatsiavut Government, 14.

Goldhar, C., Andersen, T., Gear, D., Jacques, H., Piercey, W., Woolfrey, C., Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., 2012, Sustainable Communities Joint Management Committee Workshop Report., Nunatsiavut Government, 17

Goldhar, C., Bell, T., and Wolf, J., 2012, Rethinking existing approaches to water security: An analysis of two drinking water systems in Nunatsiavut, Water Alternatives.

Goldhar, C., Gear, D., Community Members of Postville, Bell, T.,Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Postville workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 14.

Goldhar, C., Jacques, H., Community Members of Makkovik, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Makkovik workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 13.

22



Goldhar, C., Piercey, W., Community Members of Hopedale, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Allice, I., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Hopedale workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 11.

Goldhar, C., Sheldon, T., Bell, T., Furgal, C., Allice, I., Knight, J., Kouril, D., and Riedlsperger, R., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast, (poster).

Goldhar, C., Woolfrey, C., Community Members of Rigolet, Bell, T., Sheldon, T., Furgal, C., Knight, J., Kouril, D., Riedlsperger, R., 2012, SakKijânginnatuk Nunalik: Understanding opportunities and challenges for sustainable communities in Nunatsiavut, Learning from the coast - Rigolet workshop report., Nunatsiavut Government, 15.

Grasby, S.E., Smith, I.R., Bell, T., and Forbes, D.L., 2012, Cryogenic formation of brine and sedimentary mirabilite in submergent coastal lake basins, Canadian Arctic., Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta.

Hatcher, S.V., Forbes, D.L. and Manson, G.K., 2012, Changing exposure to coastal hazards in Iqaluit, Nunavut, International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

James, T., Simon, K., Forbes, D., Dyke, A., Carriere, S., and Mate, D., 2012, Projections of Relative Sea-level Change for the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

James, T.S., D. Burgess, G. Cogley, A. Darlington, J. Henton, D. Forbes, A.S. Dyke, and D. Mate, 2012, Vertical land motion, sea-level fingerprinting, and projections of relative sea-level change in northern Canad, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

James, T.S., Simon, K.M., Forbes, D.L., Dyke, A.S., Carriere, S., and Mate, D., 2012, Sea-Level Change in

Arctic Canada, Nunavut, Mining Symposium, April 16-19, 2012, Iqaluit, Nunavut.

James, T.S., Whalen, D.J.R., Jenner, K.A., Hatcher, S.V., Ulmi, M., Forbes, D.L., Manson, G.K., Henton, J. and Craymer, M.R., 2013, Coastal geoscience for sustainable development in Nunavut: 2012 activities, Summary of Activities 2012, Canada-Nunavut Geoscience Office.

Knight J., Furgal, C., Sheldon, T. and Goldhar, C., 2012, A literature review and concept map for Arctic Communities., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Lane, D.E., Mercer-Clarke, C., Forbes, D.L. and Watson, P., 2012, The gathering storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands, Sustainability Science.

Lantuit, H., Couture, N., Fritz, M., Pollard, W., Overdiun, P., Grosse, G., Schirrmeister, L. and Wetterich,, 2012, Organic carbon release from coastal erosion on ice-rich permafrost coasts: A comparison of the southern Laptev Sea and the southern Beaufort Sea., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Lantuit, H., Pollard, W.H., Couture, N., Fritz, M., Schirrmeister, L., Meyer, H. and Hubberten, H.W, 2012, Modern and Late Holocene retrogressive thaw slump activity on the Yukon Coastal Plain and Herschel Island, Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, v. 23 no.1, 39-51.

Legere, C.L., Bell, T., Hughes Clarke, J., Dethlefsen, S, and Edinger, E.N, 2012, Seabed Mapping in Support of Downstream-Effects Research and Monitoring in lake Melville, a Subarctic Estuary in Central Labrador, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Lesack, L.F.W., Marsh, P., Hicks, F.E. and Forbes, D.L., 2012, Timing, duration, and magnitude of peak annual water levels during ice beakup in the Mackenzie Delta and the role of river discharge, Water Resources Research.

Manson, G.K., D. Whalen, P. Fraser, K.A. Jenner, D.L. Forbes, and T.S. James, 2012, Compilation of coastal

23



geoscience information for environmental assessment in the Beafort Sea, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

McLennan, D., Bell, T., Berteaux, D., Chen, W., Copland, L., Fraser, R., Gallant, D., Gauthier, G., Hik, D., Krebs, C.J., Myers-Smith, I., Olthof. I., Reid, D., Sladen, W., Tarnocai, C., Vincent, W., and Zhang, Y., 2012, Climate-related Terrestrial Biodiversity Research in Canada’s Arctic National Parks: Review, Summary and Management Implications., Biodiversity, v. 13, 157-173.

Radosavljevic, B., Lantuit, H. and Fritz, M., 2012, Sediment and carbon dynamics in the nearshore zone: Herschel Island, Yukon Territory., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Simon, K. M., James, T.S., Dyke, A. S., and Forbes, D. L., 2012, Improving the Relative Sea-level History and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Models along the Northwest Coast of Hudson Bay., International Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Simon, K.M., James, T.S., Dyke, A.S., Forbes, D.L., and Henton, J.A, 2012, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Northern Canada: Improving Innuitian and Laurentide Ice Sheet Reconstructions Using Relative Sea-Level and GPS Data, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Simon, K.M., James, T.S., Dyke, A.S., Forbes, D.L., and Henton, J.A., 2012, Regional Analysis of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in Northern Canada: Improvements to the Laurentide Ice Sheet History Constrained by Relative Sea-Level and GPS Data, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 3-7, 2012.

Simpson, J., Pollard, W.H. and Cray-Sloan, H., 2012, Erosion of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps A, B, and C, Herschel Island, YT, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Sloan, H. and Pollard, W.H., 2012, Vegetation Patterns of Stabilized Retrogressive Thaw Slumps, Herschel Island, Northern Yukon., Tenth International Conference on Permafrost, Salekhard, Russia, 25 June 2012.

Smith, I.R., Irvine, M.L. and Bell, T., 2012, Surficial geology, Clyde River, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Geological Survey of Canada, Canadian Geoscience Map 58, scale 1:10 000.

Smith, I.R., Irvine, M.L. and Bell, T., 2012, Permafrost and periglacial geology, Clyde River, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Geological Survey of Canada, Canadian Geoscience Map 57, scale 1:10 000.

Spada, G., Barletta, V. R., Klemann, V., van der Wal, W., James, T. S., Simon, K., Riva, R. E. M., Martinec, Z., Gasperini, P., Lund, B., Wolf, D., Vermeersen, L. L. A., and King, M. A, 2012, Benchmarking and Testing the “Sea Level Equation”: the COST ES0701 Experience, European Geoscience Union General Assembly, April 22-27, Vienna, Austria.

St. Hilaire, D., Forbes, D.L., and Bell, T., 2012, Multi-Temporal Analysis of a Gravel-Dominated Coastline in the Central Canadian Arctic Archipelago., Journal of Coastal Research, v28, 421-441.

St. Hilaire, D., Forbes, D.L., and Bell, T., 2012, Evolution and morphodynamics of a prograded beach-ridge foreland, northern Baffin Island, Canadian Arctic Archipelago., Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography.

Tanski, G., Fritz, M. and Lantuit, H., 2012, Release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from coastal erosion in the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Teschner, C., Lantuit, H., Krautblatter, M., Fritz, M. and Pollard, W. H, 2012, The influence of climate and topography on discharge from retrogressive thaw slumps: Implications for sediment release to aquatic environments, Internation Polar Year Conference, Montréal, April 22-27.

Weege, S. and Lantuit, H, 2012, Process study of a retrogressive thaw Slump on Herschel Island, Yukon Coast, ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Wolf, A.J., and Bell, T., 2012, Knowledge to action in remote communities of Labrador: Reports from the field., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

24



Wolf, J., Allice, A., and Bell, T., 2012, Values and traditional practices in adaptation to climate change evidence from a Q method study in two communities in Labrador, Canada., In The Adaptive Challenge of Climate Change.

Wolf, J., Allice, I., Bell, T., 2012, Values, climate change, and implications for adaptation: Evidence from two communities in Labrador, Canada, Global Environmental Change, 10.

Wolf, J., Ilana, I., and Bell, T., 2012, Values, climate change, and implications for adaptation: Evidence from two communities in Labrador, Canada., Global Environmental Change, 15.

Wolter, J., Lantuit, H., Herzchuh, U. and Fritz, M., 2012, Climatic and environmental change on the Yukon coastal plain during the last 2000 years – preliminary results., ArcticNet Scientific Meeting 2012, December 10-14.

Date post:	15-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	0 times
Download:	0 times

Instability of Coastal Landscapes in Arctic Communities ... · changes in climate forcing is a...

Documents