Instability of earnings from coffee, cocoa and banana exports … · 2020. 4. 2. · 44 • Vi. VI1...

Instability of earnings from coffee, cocoa and bananaexports from selected Latin-American countries

Item Type text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic)

Authors Guerra E., Guillermo A., 1931-

Publisher The University of Arizona.

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IN ST A B IL IT Y O F EARNING S FR O M C O F F E E , COCOA A N B

B A N A N A E X P O R T S FR O M S E L E C T E D

L A T IN -A M E R IC A N COUNTRIES

by

G u il le r m o A . ^G uerra E .

A T h e s i s S u b m itted to th e F a c u l ty of the

D E P A R T M E N T O F A G R IC U L T U R A L ECONOM ICS

In P a r t i a l F u l f i l lm e n t o f the -R e q u ir e m e n ts F o r the D e g r e e of

M A ST E R OF SC IEN C E

In the G raduate College.:

THE U N IV ERSITY O F A RIZO N A

. 1 9 6 5

S T A T E M E N T BY AUTHOR

T h is t h e s i s h as b een su b m it te d in p a r t ia l fu l f i l lm e n t of r e q u ir e m e n ts for an ad v a n ced d e g r e e at The U n iv e r s i ty o f A r iz o n a and is d e p o s i t e d in the U n iv e r s i ty L ib r a r y to be m ad e a v a i la b le to b o r r o w e r s under r u le s of the L ib r a r y .

B r ie f q u ota tion s f r o m th is t h e s i s a r e a l lo w a b le w ith ou t s p e c ia l p e r m is s io n , p r o v id e d that a c c u r a te a c k n o w le d g m e n t of s o u r c e i s m a d e . R e q u e s t for p e r m i s s i o n for ex ten d ed q uotation f r o m or r e p r o d u c t io n of th is m a n u s c r ip t in w hole or in p art m a y be g ra n ted by the h ead of the m a jo r d e p a r tm e n t or the D ean of the G raduate C o l le g e w hen in h is ju d g m e n t the p r o p o s e d u se of the m a t e r ia l i s in the in t e r e s t s of s c h o la r s h ip . In a l l o th er in s t a n c e s , h o w e v e r , p e r m i s s i o n m u s t be ob ta in ed f r o m the au th or .

SIGNED:

A P P R O V A L BY THESIS D IR EC TO R

T h is t h e s i s has b een a p p ro v ed on the date show n below :

K o o e r t £>. r ir c h A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r o f A g r ic u l tu r a l E c o n o m ic s

A C K N O W LED G M EN TS

The author w is h e s to e x p r e s s - a p p r e c ia t io n . t o The N a tio n a l

F a c u l ty of A g r o n o m y , M e d e l l in ,C o lo m b ia , and .to the R o c k e f e l l e r

Found ation , for p r o v id in g the t im e and the f in a n c ia l su p p o rt to

p u rsu e h is grad u ate w o rk at the U n iv e r s i t y o f A rizona*

S in c e r e a p p r e c i a t i o n ' s e x ten d ed to D r , R o b e r t S„ F ir c h

for the d ir e c t io n , gu id an ce and e n c o u r a g e m e n t during the

p r e p a r a t io n .o f the t h e s i s and throu gh the a u th o r ?s e n t ir e grad u ate

p r o g r a m . G r a te fu l a c k n o w le d g m e n t i s e x p r e s s e d fo r the

c o n s tr u c t iv e c o m m e n ts and s u g g e s t io n s of Dr s . D onald Lu

S te r n itz k e and R o b e r t Young-.

The a u th o r 's w ife , L ib ia , c o n tr ib u te d a g r e a t d e a l to the

-total e f fo r t th rou gh h er h e lp i n ta b u la t io n s , d r a f t s m a n s h ip and

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II. M O D ELS FO R THE A N A LY SIS .................................................... . 12

M o d e l I - E q u i l ib r iu m in W orld T ra d e 12M o d e l II - A l lo c a t io n of T o ta l V a r ia n c e am ong

. Suppo s e d - C au s e s 0 0 # o » » o 5 > < i » & c » o . e d # •> ^ « 15The Im p o r ta n c e of T ren d » 0 c » „ » , , » « 0 ., » » » 0 o * o » 18L en g th of P e r io d for V a r ia n c e E s t im a t e s . 19E s t im a t e s of V a lu e of E x p o r ts and A d ju s tm e n ts

for P r i c e L e v e l Change. , „ «. »/» ' 20A d ju s tm e n t for P r i c e L e v e l C h a n g es . * * . , * „ , , . * * * . . , 21A d d it io n a l Q u a l i f ic a t io n s on the R e s u l t s * 22M o d e l III - B u ffer S tock and B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m s , » 22The B u ffer S tock P r o g r a m s a* , 25The B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m s * e a 27The E f f e c t s o f P r o g r a m s W hen D em a n d Is S tab le ap.d

Supply F lu c tu a t in g < r c « o o o ^ © o o v 9 28

III. SOURCES OF IN ST A B IL IT Y OF E X P O R T EARNING SF R O M C O F F E E , COCOA A ND B A N A N A L 31

B r a z i l C offee uobooo®® <»i9<»«!>»offa(»t»oG®<!'099®o«« » ’»»•!'?>* 34C o lo m b ia (3offee < 9 9 0 0 0 0 ôoo^t oo < > @0 0 t ^ o o o o o 38C o sta R ic a C O f f e e oooo o o o n o o Q O O o r / a a o o o o o o s i e o o o o o a o 40D o m in ic a n R e p u b lic C offee , „ * „ „ » » „ * = » * * * * * © = * * „ P * 47ECUadOr (3 Off e e e o o o o c o o o e o o o c o o o o c o o o c o o o o o o o - s o o o c 47E l S a lvad or C o ffee o o o o i f i O o o o e o o o o B O O e e o o o o o w o ^ o o 1 « o 5 "1"X̂rUcLt ̂3 md'l 3̂ f f O 0 0 » a o i 9 9 0 0 c 0 3 0 < i 0 i l i " ' 0 9 1 > 9 c c 0 0 0 0 0 0 « 0 0 5

H a it i C offee o « o o o o < » o » « o . o a e o o o o o a o o ^ o o o o o e o o o o o o f l o © 58H ond uras C O f f e e e i s o o o o o o o o o o o o o a o o o a o i o s o t f o c o o o c o 82M e x ic o C o ffee o . o o o o a o e o o o o o o o o a c o o o o o f o p o o o o c o o o o 8 9

iv

C hapter P a g e

N ic a r a g u a C o ffee . » . . « 69B r a z i l C o c o a . . . . . . . . . . . 73D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic C o co a .................................... 80E cu a d o r C o co a .............. . 80P a n a m a C o co a ............................................... 84C o s ta R ic a B an an as .................. ̂ . 84E cu a d o r B an an as .................. , 91.G u a te m a la B a n a n a s . . ............................................................ 91H ond uras B a n a n a s .................... 97P a n a m a B an an as ................... . 97

IV. T E S T O F H Y P O T H E S E S R EG A RD ING SO U RC ES O FE X P O R T EA RN ING S IN ST A B IL IT Y . . . _____. . . . . . . . . . . . 10L

T e s t of the H y p o th e s e s . . ... IQ 1 .R e la t iv e Im p o r ta n c e of D em a n d and Supply A s

S o u r c e s of I n s ta b i l i ty of E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . 103 E v a lu a t io n of B r a z i l 1 s C offee E x p o r t C o n tr o l P r o g r a m . . 109 I n te r r e la t io n s of E x p o r t E a r n in g s a m o n g C o m m o d it ie s

w ith in C o u n tr ie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

V , THE ST A B IL IZ A T IO N PR O G RA M S A N D THEIR C O N TR IBU TIO N TO ST A B IL IT Y O F E X P O R T EA R N IN G S'. ............................................................ 131

O b je c t iv e s o f S ta b i l i z a t io n P r o g r a m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . 131F o u r S tan dard T y p e s of A g r e e m e n t s . . . ........................ .. . . .. 133

The M u lt i la t e r a l C o n t r a c t 133I n te r n a t io n a l B u ffer S tock . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . 134B u ffer Fund ............... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134Q uota - A g r e e m e n t . 135

R e v ie w of C o m m o d ity S ta b i l i z a t io n P r o g r a m s forC o ffee and C ocoa . . . „ .................................. 136

O p tim u m P o l i c i e s for C o u n tr ie s E x p o r t in g S m a l lQ u a n tit ie s ....................................................... ̂ . 140

O p tim u m P o l i c i e s for C o u n tr ie s E x p o r t in g L a r g eQ u a n t it ie s ............................................. .142

E x p o r t Q uota P r o g r a m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

. A P P E N D IX . . . . . 145 . .

LIST O F R E F E R E N C E S ............................. . ... . 153

LIST OF T A B L E S

T ab le P a g e

I. Im p o r ta n c e of L ea d in g C o m m o d it ie s in the E x p o r tT rad e of L a t in A m e r ic a n C o u n tr ie s . . . . . ............. 3

II. E x p o r t V a lu e s of C o ffee , B an an as and C o co a asP e r c e n t a g e o f T ota l E x p o r t s , 1963 ........... 4

III. C O F F E E - W orld E x p o r ta b le P r o d u c t io n ,E x p o r ta t io n and Im p o r ts of S e le c t e d C o u n t r i e s ,1 9 6 2 -6 3 A v e r a g e ............. 6

IV. B A N A N A S - W orld E x p o r ts and I m p o r ts , andE x p o r ts for S e le c t e d C o u n t r i e s , 1 9 6 1 -6 3A v e r a g e ............. 7

V. COCOA BEA N S - W orld P r o d u c t io n and Im p o r ts and E x p o r ts o f S e le c t e d C o u n tr ie s , 1 9 6 1 - 63 A v e r a g e . . . . ............. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................... 8

VI. C o u n tr ie s and C o m m o d it ie s under Study . . . . . . . . . . . 11

VII. S u m m a r y of the E f f e c t s o f B u ffer S tock and B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m s under D if f e r e n t S o u r c e s of I n s ta b i l i ty and D if fe r e n t E l a s t i c i t i e s of D em a n d and Supply . . . . ....................................... . . . . . 30

VIII. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a lI n c o m e , B r a z i l i a n P r o d u c t io n , Other N o n - B r a z i l L a t in A m e r ic a n C o u n t r i e s , A fr ic a n P r o d u c t io n , and T ota l V a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a n C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ............. 35

IX. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a lIn c o m e , C o lo m b ia n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -C o lo m b ia nP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia nC offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ............... 41

X. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith C o sta R ica n P r o d u c t io n ,N o n -C o s ta R ic a n P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of C o sta R ic a n C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . 44

• Vi

VI1

T able P a g e

XI. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a l In c o m e , D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic P r o d u c t io n , N o n - D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic P r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . / 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

XII. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U nited S ta te s N a tio n a l I n c o m e , E cu a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N o n -E c u a d o r P r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of E cu a d o r C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

XIII; V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a lIn c o m e , E l S a lv a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N o n -S a lv a d o rP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of E l S a lv a d o rC o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

XIV. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a tio n a lI n c o m e , G u a tem a la P r o d u c t io n , N o n -G u a te m a laP r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of G u a tem a laC offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ... 59,

XV. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U nited S ta te s N a tio n a lIn c o m e , H a it i P r o d u c t io n , N o n -H a it i P r o d u c t io nand T o ta l V a r ia n c e of H a it i C offee E x p o r tE a r n in g s . . . » ............. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............. . 63

XVI. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e , H o n d u r a s 'P r o d u c t io n , N o n -H o n d u ra s P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of H onduras C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s 6 6

XVII. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e , M e x ic a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -M e x ic o P r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of M e x ic a n C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s .............................. 70

XVIII. • V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a lI n c o m e , N ic a r a g u a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -N ic a r a g u a nP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of N ic a r a g u a nC offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ............................... ,74

XIX. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited S ta te s N a tio n a l In c o m e , B r a z i l i a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n - B r a z i l ia n P r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of B r a z i l ia n C ocoa*E xp ort E a r n in g s ...................... 77

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P r o d u c t i o n and T o ta l V a r ia n p e b l E c u a d o r .>Gocoa- E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . » . . . . ..... . . . -, 85

V a r ia n c e -A s sp c ia te d : .w ith ‘ U n ite d .S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e , . P a n a m a 1 P r o d u c t i o n , , N o n - P a n a m a

. ' P r o d u c t io n and -Total V a r ia n c e of . P a n a m a- C o co a . $j5cp o r t . ID ar n m g s . . . . ... . o-. . . . ^... . . 8 8 .

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• R ic a n Banana. E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . ... . .. =.. . . .92

V ar ia n c e • A s s Q ciated w ith U n ite d .S ta te s : N a t io n a lI n c o m e , . E cuador " P r o d u c t io n , , Non-Êcuador - '. .P r o d u c t io n -a n d T o ta l V ar ian ce of E c u a d o r -‘B a n a n a E x p o r t E a r n in g s ^ P . . . . . . . . . . . » 94

V a r ia n c e ' A s s o c ia t e d w ith U n i te d .S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e , . G u a te m a la P r o d u c t io n . , . N o n -G u a te m a la P r o d u c t io n , .and T o ta l V a r ia n c e o f G u a te m a la -B a n a n a -Export E a r n in g s . „ . . . o> .. . p- . .; . -.: . . . . . . z- 95

V ar ia n c e -A s s p c i a te d w ith U n ited S t a t e s N a t io n a l I n c o m e , . H o n d u r a s P r o d u c t i o n , . N o n -H o n d u r a s P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n ce of .H ondu ras . .

’B a n a n a E x p o r t .E a r n in g s .... ^ > . . . . . .. ^ ........... 98

V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n ,. N o h -P a n a m a 'P r o d u c t io n -and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of P a n a m a B anana Exp o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

XXVIIIo R e la t iv e I m p o r ta n c e of D em a n d and S u p p ly asS o u r c e of I n s ta b i l i ty of C o f fe e -E x p o r t E a r n in g s 104

ix

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R e la t iv e Im p o r ta n c e of D em a n d a n d S u p p ly a s: S o u r c e s - o f I n s ta b i l i ty of G ocoa E x p o r t - .JEj 3*3?nin.̂ y s ' . . . . . . * . . — o ' . o' »■ — — . . . — . @ . 1 0 5

R e la t iv e Im p o r ta n c e o f Supply as S o u r c e ofI n s ta b i l i ty o f B an an a . E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . -107

S ta b i l iz a t io n o f S o u r c e s of B r a z i l i a n G offeeE x p o r t E a r n in g s I n s ta b i l i ty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112

E f fe c t s of C o r r e la t io n ..between E x p o r t E a r n in g sof C o ffee and Cocoa fo r In d ic a te d C o u n t r ie s . 117

XXXIII. E f f e c t s of C o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n G offee -andBanana; C o c o a and-Banana;- and. C o f f e e 9

. C o co a and B an an a in In d iv id u a l C o u n tr ie s 120

LIST OF IL L U ST R A T IO N S

F ig u r e P a g e

1. M e c h a n ism , of T rad e b e tw e e n Two M a rk ets . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

2. B u ffer S tock P r o g r a m ................................... 24

3. B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m ..................... ............... .. . . . . . . . . . ,24

4. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,B r a z i l P r o d u c t io n , O ther N o n - B r a z i l L a t inA m e r ic a n C o u n tr ies .’ P r o d u c t io n , A fr ic a nP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a nC o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ....................................... 37

5. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith D em a n d (U. S. N a t io n a lI n c o m e , O ther N o n - B r a z i l L a t in A m e r ic a nC o u n t r i e s , A fr ic a n P r o d u c t io n ) , Supply(Indiv idual C ountry P r o d u c t io n ) and T o ta lV a r ia n c e o f B r a z i l ia n C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . 39

6 . V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l In c o m e ,C o lo m b ia n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -C o lo m b ia n P r o d u c tion and Tptal V a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia C offee ... - E x p o r t E a r n in g s ................................................. 43

7. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith C o s ta .R ic a P r o d u c t io n ,N o n -C o s ta R ic a P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c eof C o sta R ic a E x p o r t E a r n in g s ................ . „ 46

8 . V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic P r o d u c t io n , N o n -D o m in ica n ,R ep u b lic P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e ofD o m in ic a n R e p u b l ic C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . 50

9. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U n ited -S ta te s N a tio n a lI n c o m e , E cu a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N o n -E c u a d o rP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of E cu a d o rC offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . 54

r

x i

F ig u r e P a g e

10. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e 3 E lS a lv a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N o n - E l S a lv a d o r P r o d u c t io n , and T ota l V a r ia n c e of E l S a lv a d o r C offee E x p o r t E a r n i n g s * . . . . 57

11 o V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l In c o m e ,G u a tem a la P r o d u c t io n , N o n -G u a te m a la P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of G u a te m a la C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s ................................................... 61

12. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e , H a it iP r o d u c t io n , N o n -H a it i P r o d u c t io n and T ota lV a r ia n c e of H a it i C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . 65

13. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l In c o m e ,H ond uras P r o d u c t io n , N o n -H o n d u ra s P r o d u c t io nand T o ta l V a r ia n c e of H ondu ras C offee E x p o r tE a r n in g s ...................................................... 6 8

14. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l In c o m e ,M e x ic a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -M e x ic a n P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of M e x ic a n C o ffee E x p o r t E a r n in g s . ■ 72

15. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,N ic a r a g u a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n -N ic a r a g u a n P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of N ic a r a g u a C offee

* E x p o r t E a r n i n g s . . 7 6

16. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l In c o m e ,B r a z i l i a n P r o d u c t io n , N o n - B r a z i l ia n P r o d u c t io nand T o ta l V a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a n C ocoa E x p o r tE a r n in g s ......................................................... 79

. 17. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S, N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic P r o d u c t io n , N o n -D o m in ic a nP r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of D o m in ic a nR ep u b lic C o co a E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

18. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,E cu a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N on ^ E cu ador P r o d u c t io n andT o ta l V a r ia n c e of E cu a d o r C ocoa. E x p o rtE a r n in g s ........................................................ 87

x i i

F ig u r e P a g e

19. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith LL S, N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n , N o n -P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of P a n a m a C ocoa E x p o r tIC a r n 1 n g S e » o o e e e o o e o e » e » e e « e e o e » e o o a e a o e e 3 e » 9 ^

20. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,C o s ta R ic a P r o d u c t io n , N o n -C o s ta .R ica P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of C o s ta R ic a B anana E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . 93

21. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S„ N a tio n a l I n c o m e ,E cu a d o r P r o d u c t io n , N o n -E c u a d o r P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e of E cu a d o r B anana E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . ............. ........................................................ . 93

22. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S, N a t io n a l In c o m e ,G u a tem a la P r o d u c t io n , N o n -G u a te m a laP r o d u c t io n and T ota l V a r ia n c e of G u a tem a laB anana E x p o r t E a r n in g s .......................... 96

23. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,H ond uras P r o d u c t io n , N o n -H o n d u ra s P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e o f H ondu ras B anana

: E x p o r t E a r n in g s .................. 96

24. V a r ia n c e A s s o c i a t e d w ith P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n , N o n -P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n and T o ta l V a r ia n c e ofP a n a m a B anana E x p o r t E a r n in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

• .25. S ta b i l iz a t io n of S o u r c e s of B r a z i l i a n E x p o r tE a r n in g s I n s ta b i l i ty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o . 114

26. E f f e c t s o f C o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n E x p o r t E a r n in g s ofC offee and C o co a w ith in C o u n tr ie s . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

27. E f fe c t of C o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n E x p o r t E a r n in g s ofC offee and B an anas w ith in C o u n tr ie s . . . . . . . . . . 121

28. E f f e c t s of C o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n E x p o r t E a r n in g s ofC o co a .a n d B an an as in P a n a m a .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

29. E f f e c t s of C o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n E x p o r t E a r n in g s ofC o ffee , C o co a and B an an as in E cu ad or . . . . . . . . 124

Xlll

F ig u r e

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

T en Y ea r P e r io d s for w h ich U. - S. N a t io n a l I n co m e W as A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ount of C offee

, E x p o r t E a r n in g s I n s ta b i l i ty .than O ther V a r ia b le s

T en Y ea r P e r io d for w h ich U. S, N a t io n a l In co m e Was A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ount o f C o co a E x p o r t E a r n in g s In s ta b i l i ty than O ther V a r ia b le s . . . . . . . . .

T en Y ea r P e r io d s for w h ich P r o d u c t io n of O therC o u n tr ie s Was A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ountof C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s I n s ta b i l i ty thanO ther a r la b le s . a .

T en Y ea r P e r io d s for w h ich P r o d u c t io n of O ther C o u n tr ie s Was A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ount of C o c o a ,E x p o r t E a r n in g s than O ther V a r ia b le s s . . 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 . 9 0 0 . . . o . >>9 o . . . o o « o e » o o o «

T en Y ea r P e r io d s for w h ich the In d iv idual C o u n tr y ’s Own P r o d u c t io n W as A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ount of C offee E x p o r t E a r n in g s I n s ta b i l i ty than. O ther "V a r ia b le s o a . . 9 o o o . o o o * o o o o . . o . o . p o .

T en Y ea r P e r io d s for w h ich the In d iv id u a l C o u n tr y ’s Own P r o d u c t io n Was A s s o c i a t e d w ith a L a r g e r A m ount of Cocoa: E x p o r t E a r n in g s In s ta b i l i ty than O ther V a r ia b le s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I . . . . . . . . .

P a g e

125

126

127

128

129

130

A B S T R A C T

It w a s the p r in c ip a l o b je c t iv e o f th is r e s e a r c h to d e te r m in e

the s o u r c e s of p a s t in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m c o f fe e ,

c o c o a and bananas f r o m s e l e c t e d L a t in - A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s and

to e v a lu a te the buffer s to c k and the buffer fund p r o g r a m s as

m e a n s to s o lv e the in s ta b i l i t y p r o b le m s of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s »

S u b sta n t ia l a m ou n ts of the v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s for

in d iv id u a l c o u n tr ie s ex p o r t in g c o f fe e or c o c o a was. a s s o c ia t e d w ith

f lu c tu a t io n s in U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a l In c o m e during the in te r w ar

p e r io d . S in ce W orld War II, the v a r ia n c e of e a r n in g s has

d e c l in e d for m o s t c o u n tr ie s and th is a p p e a r s to be la r g e ly

ex p la in e d by d e c l in in g e f f e c t s of in s ta b i l i t y of U nited S ta te s N a tio n a l

I n c o m e .

■ In c o u n tr ie s w h ich e x p o r t s m a l l q u a n t it ie s of c o f fe e and

c o c o a , r e c e n t in s ta b i l i t y h as b een p r im a r i ly a s s o c ia t e d w ith

f lu c tu a t io n s in th e ir own p ro d u ct io n . T h is i s a l s o the c a s e for a l l

c o u n tr ie s s tu d ied that e x p o r t b a n a n a s . Som e of t h e s e m ig h t find

b u ffer s to c k p r o g r a m s b e n e f ic ia l .

In c o u n tr ie s w h ich e x p o r t r e l a t iv e l y la r g e q u a n t i t ie s of c o f fe e

or c o c o a r e c e n t in s ta b i l i t y has b e e n p r im a r i ly a s s o c i a t e d w ith

■fluctuations .in the e x p o r ts o f o th er c o u n t r i e s » S om e of t h e s e

c o u n tr ie s m ig h t f ind b uffer fund p r o g r a m s d e s ir a b le .

x iv

C H A P T E R I

INTR O D U C TIO N

The e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o u n tr ie s w h ich depend on one or a few

c o m m o d it ie s for the bulk of th e ir fo r e ig n ex ch a n g e in c o m e are s u b

j e c t to f lu c tu a t io n s f r o m ch a n g es in f a c to r s su ch as the s i z e of

cro p , the s ta te of w o r ld d em an d , and the e m e r g e n c e o f c o m p et in g

supplies ,, E x p o r t e a r n in g s have c o m m o n ly a f fe c te d the l e v e l of

l iv in g , in te r n a l e c o n o m ic s ta b i l i ty , the ra te o f e c o n o m ic grow th , and

the d is tr ib u t io n of in c o m e and w e a lth in . t h e s e c o u n t r i e s .

It is im p o r ta n t th a t in te r n a l and e x te r n a l p o l i c i e s d e s ig n e d to

s t a b i l i z e f lu c tu a t io n s in e x p o r t e a r p in g s be b a s e d on u n d e rs ta n d in g

of the e c o n o m ic f o r c e s w h ich g e n e r a te the in s ta b i l i ty . T h is study is .

d e s ig n e d to id e n t ify ,th e s o u r c e s of in s ta b i l i t y in e x p o r t e a r n in g s ,

and to ev a lu a te the a p p r o p r ia t e n e s s of s ta b i l iz a t io n p r o g r a m s .

The Im p o r ta n c e of P r i m a r y C o m m o d it ie s in the L atin A m e r ic a n E c o n o m ie s

Of a l l the p r in c ip a l ,u n d e r d e v e lo p e d .a r e a s of the w o r ld w hich ar§

h e a v i ly d ep en d en t on c o m m o d i t y .e x p o r t s , L a tin A m e r ic a is in the

h ig h e s t s ta g e o f e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n t . H e n c e , i t s v u ln e r a b i l i ty

to c o m m o d ity p r o b le m s i s g r e a t a s i s p o in ted out by the A c t of

B o g o t a .

That u r g e n t a tten t io n be g iv e n .to the s e a r c h . f o r e f f e c t iv e a n d .p r a c t ic a l w a y s a p p ro p r ia te for e a c h co m m o d ity , to d e a l w ith the p r o b le m o£.the i n s t a b i l i t y .of e x ch a n g e e a r n in gs of c o u n tr ie s h e a v i ly d ep en d en t upon .Ithe e x p o r ta t io n of p r im a r y p ro d u cts „ . . . *

The h igh d ep en d en ce of m o s t .L a t in .A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s o n .a

v e r y fe w c o m m o d it ie s for e x p o r t e a r n in g s is sh ow n in T ab le T,

G om m o.d ities in. th e ir o r d e r of im p o r ta n c e by cou n try are. tin ,

p e tr o le u m , c o f fe e and b a n an as . W ith B o l iv ia and V e n e z u e la

a cco u n tin g fo r n ear ly , a l l o f the t in and p e tr o le u m , c o f fe e and

banana e x p o r ts d o m in a te th e e c o n o m ic p osit ion , of m any. L atin

A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s . C offee freq u en tly , a c c o u n ts .for 50 p er

cen t or m o r e of the v a lu e of e x p o r ts of in d iv id u a l c o u n tr ie s ,

c o f fe e and b a n a n a s , co co a , or co tton a c c o u n ts for . .m ore than 7 0

p er cen t o f th e e x p o r t e a r n in g s of s e v e r a l c o u n tr ie s .

T a b le II in d ic a te s th e r e la t iv e im p o r t a n c e of c o f f e e , c o c o a

.and bananas in .th e e x p o r t e a r n in g s - fo -r .L a t in .A m e r ic a „ C offee and

b ananas a c c o u n t for m o r e than 50 .p er cent, for C o sta R ic a ,

E c u a d o r , G u a tem a la and -H onduras.. C o c o a a n d bananas a ccou n t

for 48 p er cen t of e x p o r t s com ing , for P a n a m a . The th r e e

c o m m o d i t i e s , c o f fe e , c o c o a ;and b a n a n a s ,. acco u n t for 87 p er

1. C o m m it te e fo r E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t . C o o p e r a t io n f o r P r o g r e s s in L a t in A m e r i c a . . A s ta te m e n t o n .n a t io n a l p o l ic y b y the R e s e a r c h 'a n d P o l i c y C o m m it te e of the C o m m it te e for E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t . A p r i l 1961, p. 14.

3

T A B L E I. I m p o r ta n c e o f L e a d in g C o m m o d it ie s in the E x p o r t T ra d e of L a t in .A m e r ic a n C o u n tr ie s 3-

L ea d in gC o m m o d it ie s

a s P e r cen t of L e a d in g .T w o C o m m o d it ie sT ota l E x p o rt a s P e r cen t of

C ountry , V alue T o ta l E x p o r tf" 1963

A r g e n t in a M ea t 24.. 5 M eat "wool 3 6 .B o l iv ia T in ' 93. 9 T i n - s i l v e rB r a z i l C o ffee . 53. 2 C o f f e e - c o t to n 63.C o lo m b ia C offee 67. 9 C o f f e e - p e t r o le u m 85.C o,sta ;R ica Coffee^ . 50. 2 C o ffe e -b a n a n a s 77.D o m in ic a n -R epublic Sugar .57. 9 Sugar - c o f f e e 6 8 .E cu a d o r B an an as 64. 5 B a n a n a s - c o c o a .76.E l S a lv a d o r C offee 78. 1 C o ffee -c o t to n 90.G u a tem a la C offee 49 . 7 C o f f e e - c o t to n f>6 .H a it i C o ffe e 53.-1 C o f f e e - s i s a l 70.H ondu ras B a n a n a s 3 9 . 4 C o ffe e -b a n a n a s 56.M e x ic o C otton 1 9 . 9 C o t to n -c o f fe e 24.N ic a r a g u a C otton 42 . 0 C o t to n -c o f fe e 6 0 .P a n a m a ■ B a n a n a s 40 . 8 B an an as - r e f in e d p e tr o le u m 8 1 .P e r u F i s h m e a l .19. 3 F i s h m e a l - c o t t o n .36.U ru gu ay W ool • 5 1 . 4 W o o l - m e a t 71 .V e n e z u e la P e t r o le u m 9 2 . 6 P e t r o le u m - ir o n , o r e 95.

S o u rce : I. M. F , . In te rn a t io n a l, f in a n c ia l s t a t i s t i c s , S u p p lem en t to . 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 . i s s u e s . '

2

41

3531

736598260

a D a ta .fo r Cuba, C h ile and P a r a g u a y n ot a v a i la b le .

.4

T A B L E II. E x p o rt V a lu e s of C o ffee , B an an as and C o co a as P e r c e n t a g e of T o ta l E x p o r ts , 1963.

C ountry

V alu e of C offee a s P e r cen t of T o ta l E x p o r ts

. V alu e of B anan as as P e r cen t of T o ta l E x p o r ts

V alu e of C o co a as P e r cen t of T o ta l E x p o rts

T ota l v a lu e of C o ffee , C o co a and B ananas a s P e r cen t of T ota l E x p o rts

B r a z i l ; 53 . 2 «• 2 . 5 55. 7

C o lo m b ia 67, 9 . " - 6 7 . 9r

C o s ta R ic a .50. 2 27. 3 77. 5

D o m in ic a nR e p u b lic 1 0 . 6 “ 8 . 5 • 19. 1

E cu a d o r 1 1 . 0 64. 5 1 1 . 8 , ■ 8.7. 3

•EL. S a lv a d o r 78. 1 - - 78 . 1

G u a tem a la .49. 7 7. 1 56. 8

H a it i . 53. 1 - - 53. 1

H ondu ras 1 7 . 2 3 9 . 4 ■ — 56. 6

M e x ic o 5 . 0 - - 5. 0

N ic a r a g u a . 1 8 . 9 . _ 1 8 . 9

P a n a m a 4 0 . 8 ; • 7» 8 .47. 6

Sou rce: T.„M. F . In te r n a t io n a l H n a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s . S u p p lem en t to 1 9 6 4 - 6 5 i s s u e s .

cen t o f e x p o r t e a r n in g s o f E c u a d o r . The d is tr ib u t io n , of p rod u ction

.among, c o u n tr ie s , and the h igh d ep en d en ce on. the U n ited S ta tes

m a r k e ts for th e s e th r e e c o m m o d i t i e s - i s sh ow n in the fo l lo w in g

ta b le s .

W orld e x p o r ta b le p r o d u c t io n .o f c o f fe e w a s 56 m i l l i o n bags for

the T 9 6 2 . - 6 3 a v e r a g e (T ab le III). W orld e x p o r ts a r e 47 m i l l io n bags

and a c c u m u la te d .s u r p lu s w o r ld s t o c k .o f 60 m i l l io n b a g s . The

a v e r a g e L atin A m e r ic a n p ro d u ct io n .a n d e x p o r ts for 1962 and 1963

i s m o r e than: 70 p e r cen t of the w o r ld p ro d u ct io n and e x p o r t s , T he

U n ited -S ta te s im p o r ts account, for 50 p er cen t of the to ta l w o r ld

tra d e in c o f f e e .

T o ta l w o r ld e x p o r ts of bananas w a s 173 m il l io n : s tem s , of. :

w h ich L a t in .A m e r ic a n s e x p o r te d 85 p er cen t . A g a in the U nited

.S tates a c c o u n ts for a p p r o x im a te ly . 50 p er cen t of to ta l im p o r ts

(T ab le IV).

The 1 9 62 -6 3 a v e r a g e p ro d u ct io n of c o c o a w as 11, 171, 000

m e t r i c tons of w h ich L a tin A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s p r o d u ced a p p r o x i

m a te ly . 30 p er c en t . The U n ite d S ta te s im p o r ts about 30 p er cent

of to ta l w o r ld p r o d u c t io n (T ab le V).

F r o m .t h e ta b le s it a p p e a r s that f lu c tu a t io n s in p r i c e s and

p ro d u c t io n w ould h a v e a profound in f lu e n c e on the s t a b i l i t y of e x p o r t

e a r n in g s for the L a t in .A m e r ic a n , cou ntr i e s .

6

T A B L E III, C O F F E E - Wo.rld E x p o r ta b le P r o d u c t io n , E x p o r ta t io n •and Im p o r ts o f S e le c t e d C o u n tr ie s , 1 9 6 2 - 6 3 A v e r a g e

C ontinent E x p o r ta b le P r o d u c t io n " E x p o r ts

A f r ic a t T h o u s y d ^ s , 60 kg., or T32, 276 lb s . each ) . 1 2 , 663

^Latin A m e r ic a , 3 9 , 8 7 4 3 3 , 2 1 5

W orld T o ta l 55, 712 4 7 , 4 4 3

C oun try : L a t in A m e r ic a n P r o d u c t io n : L a t in A m e r ic a n E x p o r ts

B r a z i l 2 4 , GOO 1 7 , 9 4 6C o lo m b ia 6 , 6 0 0 6 , 3 4 7G u a tem a la . 1 , 6 5 0 1 , 622M e x ic o 1, 370 1 , 3 2 8E l S a lv a d o r 1 , 6 6 0 1, 532C o s ta R ic a 980 915E cu a d o r 570 525V e n e z u e la .340 .354N ic a r a g u a . 417 402D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic 430 473H ondu ras 320 300H ait i . 480 452

Im p o r ts

U n ited S ta tes 24, 2 2 1

C anada 759O ther L a t in A m e r ic a n C o u n tr ie s 658

E u r o p e a n E c o n o m ic C o m m u n ity 11,45.3W e s t E u ro p e 6 , 6 8 6

T o ta l E u rop e 1 9 , 3 9 5T o ta l A f r ic a .1 , 124T o ta l A s i a and O c e a n ia 93 0

, W orld T ota l 4 7 , 5 8 8

S ou rce: P a n - A m e r ic a n C offee B u rea u . A nnual C offee S t a t i s t ic s 1963,No,. 27, p a g e s 49 , 50 and 73.

7

T A B L E IY. , BA N A N A S - W or-ld-Exports and I m p o r t s , for S e le c t e d C o u n t r i e s , 1 9 6 1 - 6 3 A v e r a g e

and E x p o r ts

T h ou san d -S te m s a

Im p o r ts

U n ited S ta te s 7 1 , 4 4 7E u ro p e 7 4 , 2 9 7O th ers 28, 857

T ota l W orld -Im ports 1 7 4 , 6 0 2

E x p o r t s

T o ta l L a t in A m e r ic a .145, 283C o s ta R ic a .11, 504G u a tem a la . 5 , 2 3 3H on duras 1 6 , 7 2 0P a n a m a 1 2 , 0 0 2

E cu a d o r 5 0 , 2 7 6O ther L a t in .A m e r ic a n C o u n tr ie s 5 9 , 2 8 3

A f r ic a 2 3 , 6 7 4

T o ta l W orld I m p o r ts 1 7 3 , 083b

S ou rce: U. S. D e p a r tm e n t of A g r ic u l tu r e , F o r e ig n .A g r ic u l t u r a lS e r v ic e , C ir c u la r F D A P 2 - 6 4 , . S e p t . . 1964.

a One S te m = 50 p o u n d s «^Data. for A s ia and O c ea n ia w e r e o m it te d , . w h ich a c c o u n ts for the

d i f f e r e n c e s in e x p o r ts and i m p o r t s »

8

T A B L E V, COCOA B E A N S - W orld P r o d u c t io n and I m p o r ts and E x p o r ts o f S e le c t e d C o u n t r i e s , 1961 -63 A v e r a g e

C ontinent or C oun try... ..— ......... . " -----

T h ou san d T ons

P r o d u c t io n

A f r ic a 8 4 6 . 1L a t in . A m e r ic a 248 . 0

W orld T ota l 1 , 1 7 1 . 6

Im p o r ts

U nited S ta tes 3 0 8 . 7F e d e r a l R ep u b l ic of G e rm a n yU nited Kingdom.. 107. 9N e th e r la n d s 1 0 4 . 4F r a n c e 64. 3

W orld T o ta l Im p o r ts 1, 022. 4

E x p o r tsT o ta l L a t in :A m e r ic a . 1 7 4 . 8

B r a z i l 76. 0D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic . 18. 0

E cu a d o r 33, 1, O ther L a t in A m e r ic a n C o u n tr ie s 46 . 9

A fr ic a 835; 6

W orld T ota l 1 , 0 2 2 . 8 a

a .Data.for A s i a and O c ea n ia w e r e o m it te d w h ich accounts, for the d if f e r e n c e b e tw e e n e x p o r t s and im p o r t s „

S o u rce : F o r e ig n A g r ic u l tu r a l S e r v i c e , U. S. D e p a r tm e n t ofA g r ic u l tu r e , F o r e ig n A g r ic u l tu r a l C ir c u la r F C B , M a r c h 1965, pag. 2, 8 and 9.

N u r sk e p o in ts out that if the s o u r c e of in s ta b i l i t y i s the su p p ly

s id e of the m a r k e t , th e n .e x p o r t p r i c e s and q u a n ti t ie s w ould f lu ctu a te

i n v e r s e l y . A ctu a lly , p r i c e s and q u a n tit ie s m o v e to g e th e r in s te a d of

o f f s e t t in g .ea ch o th er in th e ir e f f e c t on the e x p o r t p r o c e e d s of p r im a r y

. p ro d u c in g c o u n t r i e s . T h is fa c t w a s brought out c l e a r ly in a U nited

3N a tio n s s tudy . B a s e d on ,th e e x p e r i e n c e o f the f i r s t h a lf of the

c e n tu r y ( 1 90 1 -1 9 50 ) , . th is s tu d y found on the w h o le that p r ic e and

quantity c h a n g es co n tr ib u te about e q u a lly to the c y c l i c a l c h a n g es in

e x p o r t p r o c e e d s r e a l i z e d for the le a d in g c o m m o d it ie s that en ter into

in te r n a t io n a l tr a d e .

The p a r a l l e l m o v e m e n t of e x p o r t p r i c e s and e x p o r t q u a n tit ie s

r e f l e c t s the d om in an t r o le of d em an d c o n d i t io n s .

It i s the p r in c ip a l h y p o th e s i s o f th is s tudy that the in s ta b i l i t y

of e x p o r t d em an d is the m o s t im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of in s ta b i l i t y pf

e x p o r t e a r n in g s for in d iv id u a l c o m m o d it ie s of in d iv id u a l c o u n t r i e s »

The g e n e r a l o b je c t iv e s are:

1, To d e te r m in e the ex ten t of p a s t in s ta b i l i ty o f e x p o r t e a r n

in g s f r o m c o f f e e , c o c o a , and b a n a n a s • from , s e l e c t e d L atin

A m e r ic a n , c o u n t r i e s .

2, N u r sk e R a g k n a r , nT rad e F lu c tu a t io n s and B u ffer P o l i c i e s of L o w -I n c o m e C o u n tr ie s , n K y k lo s , 1958, II, pp. 1 4 1 - 1 5 4 , 264-,65, F a s . 2.

3, U nited N a t io n s . . ^ In sta b il ity in E x p o r t M a rk et o f U n d e r d e v e lo p e d C o u n tr ie s , ,f R om e, E / 2 0 4 7 / R e V o / 1 St. / E G A pp. 95, 1952 (See T a b le s I and II).

10.

2. To id en t ify , the s o u r c e s of p a s t . in s t a b i l i t y of e a r n in g s .

3. To e v a lu a te the a p p r o p r ia t e n e s s of a l t e r n a t iv e s ta b i l iz a t io n

p o l i c i e s .for v a r io u s s o u r c e s o f in s ta b i l i t y .

The a n a ly s i s w h ich fo l lo w s i s c o n c e r n e d w ith ch a n g e s in both

supply, and d em an d as p o s s i b l e s o u r c e s o f p a s t in s ta b i l i t y . The

c o u n tr ie s and c o m m o d it ie s in c lu d e d . in th is a n a ly s i s a r e sh ow n in

T a b le VI. C hap ter II ou tlin es , the b a s ic T h e o r e t ic a l , s t r u c tu r e pn

w h ich the a n a ly s i s o f the fo l lo w in g c h a p te r s is based .. I m p l ic a t io n s

and a s s u m p t io n s o f the s t r u c tu r e o f the a n a ly s i s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d .

C hapter III i s c o n c e r n e d w ith the a n a ly s i s of s o u r c e s of

v a r ia b i l i t y ,o f e x p o r t e a r n in g s . The a n a ly s i s a t te m p ts to a l lo c a te

the v a r ia n c e o f v a lu e of e x p o r ts am on g the m o s t p ro b a b le s o u r c e s .

R e g r e s s i o n a n a ly s i s i s a p p l ie d .a s the b a s i s for co m p u t in g .th e

v a r ia n c e of to ta l v a lu e o f e x p o r ts a s s o c i a t e d w ith f lu c tu a t io n s in

su pp ly v a r ia b le s and d em a n d v a r i a b l e s .

C hap ter - IV i s d e v o te d to tes t in g ; the h y p o th e s e s w h ich a re

s ta t e d . in C hap ter III. C hapter V p r o v id e s an ev a lu a t io n , o f the

d if fe r e n t m e a n s for so lv in g , th e -w o r ld com m od ity , p r o b le m s in t e r m s

of the r e s u l t s o b ta in e d ,in C hapter III. A ls o , it d ra w s s o m e c o n

c lu s io n s and im p l ic a t io n s o f the r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d . in . t h e p r e v io u s

c h a p te r s .

11

T A B L E VI. C o u n tr ie s and C o m m o d it ie s under Study

C offee B ananas C ocoa

B r a z i l

C o lo m b ia

C o sta R ic a

'D om in ican R ep u b lic

•E cuador

-El. S a lvad or

G u a tem a la

H aiti

H onduras

-M exico

-N icaragu a

P a n a m a

x

x

• x

X

X

X

:X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X X

C H A P T E R II

M O D E L S FOR THE A NA LY SIS

A l l o f the m odels , and m e th o d o lo g ic a l i s s u e s a r e c o l l e c t e d .in

th is ch ap ter in .o r d e r to le a v e the fo l lo w in g th r e e c h a p te r s l e s s

e n c u m b e r e d by d e ta i l s w h ich w ould o b s tr u c t the p r e s e n ta t io n of

the r e s u lt s o

• M o d e l I ° E q u il ib r iu m in .W o r ld T rad e

A s th is s,tudy,is c o n c e r n e d w ith in te r n a t io n a l tr a d e , the

f i r s t m o d e l w i l l be u s e d . in o r d e r to e x p la in .th e m e c h a n i s m of

tra d e b e tw e e n two m a r k e t s and the d e te r m in a t io n .o f e q u i l ib r iu m

p r ic e in e a c h of th e im The e x a m p le w i l l u s e B r a z i l c o f fe e

1e x p o r t s ; h o w e v e r , it can be a p p lied to any e x p o r te d c o m m o d ity .

It i s a s s u m e d that the to ta l w o r ld c o f fe e m a r k e t c o n s i s t s

of two r e g io n s , B r a z i l and a c o m p o s i t e of the r e s t of the w o r ld .

T h e s e r e g io n s a r e both p o te n t ia l p r o d u c e r s and u s e r s of coffee*

It is a s s u m e d in .th is m od el, that c o f fe e , i s a h o m o g e n o u s c o m

m o d ity , that p u re c o m p e t it io n p r e v a i l s in the two m a r k e t s , that

1. The m o d e l p resen ted .. in ..th is s e c t io n is e s s e n t ia l ly , that of P a u l A , , S a m u e ls o n , . ,t S p atia l P r i c e -E q u ilibr iu m and L in e a r P r o g r a m m in g , 11 The A m e r ic a n 'E c o n o m ic R e v ie w , V o l. XLII,No. 3, (June, 1952) , p„ 286.

12

13

tr a d e r s a r e s e e k in g . t o 'm a x im iz e p r o f i t s , and that the c o s t s of t r a n s

p o rt o f c o f fe e f r o m one r e g io n to the o th er i s . z e r o s

The eq u il ib r iu m , a d ju s tm e n ts a r e i l lu s t r a t e d g r a p h i c a l l y .

(F ig u r e 1). In r e g io n I, D p and S p r e p r e s e n t the f o r e ig n d em an d and

su p p ly fu n c t io n s , r e s p e c t iv e ly ; and in r e g io n II, D g a n d .S g r e p r e s e n t

the B r a z i l ia n .dem and .and su p p ly - fu n c t io n s» The d a sh e d l i n e s , P p

and P g , r e p r e s e n t the--eq u ilibr ium co n d it io n s in The fo r e ig n .and

B r a z i l i a n m a r k e t w h e n .th e r e is no tr a d e b e tw e e n .th e - tw o r e g io n s ,

B r a z i l w ould sh ip c o f fe e in to the h ig h er p r ic e d . f o r e ig n

m a r k e t i f th e r e w e r e no b a r r i e r s .to tr a d e b e tw e e n The two r e g i o n s ,

At p r ic e P p in .th e fo r e ig n m a r k e t , no c o f fe e is d em a n d ed f r o m

B r a z i l , At p r ic e P-^r the fo r e ig n m a r k e t w ould d em an d quantity

QIj to QI2 . f r o m B r a z i l , The e x c e s s d em an d c u r v e -X D F is

d e r iv e d b y su b tra c t in g , the -fo re ig n su p p ly S p from , the fo r e ig n

d em an d D p at v a r io u s p r i c e s » The e x c e s s su p p ly XSB is d e r iv e d

by, s u b tr a c t in g the B r a z i l ia n -d e m a n d , D g , . f r o m the B r a z i l i a n

su p p ly c u r v e S g at v a r io u s p r i c e s . A t p r ic e P g in .th e B r a z i l

m a r k e t , no c o f fe e -is su p p lied to the fo r e ig n .m a rk e t , and at

p r ic e P'W’j B r a z i l w ou ld supply, quantity QII]_, to QII^ to thd'

fo r e ig n m a r k e t .

A t the in t e r s e c t io n o f X D F and ..XSB is the e q u i l ib r iu m

poin t for. tra d e b e tw e e n the fo r e ig n .and B r a z i l m a r k e t s , At

p r ic e P-\v, B r a z i l w i l l su p p ly Q l l p . t o QJI2 w h ich i s eq u a l to the

D p SF XDF P r l c e XSBP r i c e

SB

Q uantity B r a z i lIm p o rt

Q t T i B r a z i l TO E x p o r ts

T ra d e M ark etF o r e ig n B r a z i l

F ig u r e 1, M e c h a n is m of T ra d e b e tw e e n Two M a r k e ts .

15

e x c e s s f o r e ig n d em an d at that p r ic e . T h e s e two q u a n t i t ie s a re

r e p r e s e n t e d by Q T q and Q T o n the tr a d e m a r k e t . It sh o u ld be

noted that the e x c e s s d em an d fu n c t io n - - th e d em an d for B r a z i l ’s

e x p o r ts - - i s a fu n ct io n of both the d em an d and su pp ly o f o th er

c o u n t r i e s .

M od e l II - A l lo c a t io n of T o ta l V a r ia n c e am ong S u p p o sed C a u se s

T h is m o d e l and the fo l lo w in g a r e s u b s ta n t ia l ly the s a m e as

th o se d e v e lo p e d by F ir ch. ^

S in ce th is s tudy i s c o n c e r n e d w ith the study of v a r ia b i l i t y ,

the s t a t i s t i c a l co n c e p t o f v a r ia n c e w a s c h o s e n as the b a s i s for the

a n a ly s i s . M od e l II w i l l be u s e d to s tu d y the v a r ia b i l i t y . Y ear to

y e a r c h a n g e s r e p r e s e n t the v a r ia b i l i t y to be m e a s u r e d in v a r io u s

s e r i e s . In a g e n e r a l c a s e o f e c o n o m ic a n a ly s i s it i s im p r a c t i c a l

to e x p l i c i t l y in c lu d e a l l v a r ia b le s w h ich m a y in f lu e n c e the

depen d en t v a r ia b le .

T he g e n e r a l fo r m u la t io n of the m o d e l i s g iv e n by the f o l l o w

ing e q u a tio n s: X j = a + bX£ + cX^ + dX^. + e (II-I)

W here a, b, c , d, f a r e c o n s ta n ts , X^ is the d ep en d en t v a r ia b le

and X 2 , Xg and X4 a r e in d ep en d en t v a r i a b l e s .

2. R o b e r t S. F i r c h , " S ta b il iz a t io n o f the U nited S ta tes E c o n o m y and S ta b il i ty of F a r m I n c o m e , 11 u n p u b lish ed P h . D. d is s e r t a t io n , U n iv e r s i t y o f C h ica g o , 1963, C hapter II.

16

X j i s eq u a l to the v a lu e of e x p o r t s of c o f f e e , cocoa or b a n a n a s ,

X 2 i s eq u a l to U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e , X 3 is the individual

c o u n tr y 's p r o d u c t io n ( c o f f e e , c o c o a , or b a n a n a s ) , X^ o th e r c o u n t r i e s ’

p ro d u ct io n (i. e . , to ta l w o r ld p r o d u c t io n m in u s the in d iv id u a l c o u n tr y 's

p r o d u c t io n ) , and e i s an e r r o r t e r m r e p r e s e n t in g the in f lu e n c e of

v a r ia b le s not e x p l i c i t l y in c lu d e d in the a n a ly s is . F o r B r a z i l i a n

c o f f e e the X 5 v a r ia b le r e p r e s e n t in g o th er L atin A m e r ic a n p ro d u ct io n

and the X^ v a r ia b le r e p r e s e n t in g A fr ic a n p ro d u ct io n w e r e added .

A ls o fo r B r a z i l i a n c o f f e e a v a r ia b le X 7 r e p r e s e n t in g B r a z i l i a n

n o n e x p o r t w as added to a llo w the e v a lu a t io n of the B r a z i l i a n p r o g r a m

of s to r in g and d e s tr o y in g la r g e q u a n t it ie s of c o f f e e . The la s t th r e e

v a r ia b le s a r e u s e d a s a l t e r n a t e s fo r v a r i a b l e s tw o , th r e e and fo u r .

It can be sh ow n that the v a r ia n c e of X j i s a fu n ct io n of the v a r ia n c e s

and c o - v a r i a n c e s of the in d ep en d en t v a r ia b le s in c lu d in g th o s e

3o m it te d f r o m the fo l lo w in g equation:

(72X 1 = b 2 °"2X 2 + c 2 cr2X 3 + d2 0'2X 4 + 2bc crx2X 3 + 2bd OX2X 4 +

2cd a X 3X 4 + a 2 e . ( I I -2)

A l l o f th e . in fo r m a t io n n e e d e d to m a k e the a l lo c a t io n of the v a r ia n c e

as in eq u ation ( I I -2) i s ob ta in ed f r o m the l e a s t s q u a r e s e s t im a t io n

of the r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s b , c , d, of the eq u ation .

The v a lu e of 172e m a y be o b ta in ed as the d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n

the v a r ia n c e o f v a r ia b le X 2 and the f i r s t s i x t e r m s on th e r igh t

3. F i r c h , op. c i t .

. s id e of the eq u a t io n - ( I I -2.). , An a l t e r n a t iv e w a y .to d e r iv e the va lu e of

0,2e i s to m u lt ip ly the v a r ia n c e of X j by. the c o m p le m e n t of the

c o e f f i c ie n t of m u lt ip le d e te r m in a t io n .

The ab ove e q u a t io n .c a n be r e a d in the fo l lo w in g .m anner: The

t o t a l v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c i a t e d w ith the v a r ia n c e of

U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l In c o m e -is. co m p u ted in ,th e f i r s t t e r m on .the

r ig h t s id e of the equation,- The s e c o n d t e r m r e p r e s e n t s the

v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c i a t e d w ith .th e v a r ia n c e of that

c o u n tr y 8s p ro d u ct io n . The to ta l v a r ia n c e of ex p o r t e a r n in g s

a s s o c ia t e d w ith the v a r ia n c e , of o th er c o u n tr ie s ' p r o d u c t io n . i s the

th ird term , on the r ig h t of the eq u ation . A l l of th e se - - te r m s can be

o n ly p o s i t iv e s in c e a v a r ia n c e i s a lw a y s p o s i t iv e and any. r e g r e s s i o n

.c o e f f i c ie n t sq u a r e d w i l l be p o s i t iv e . The fourth t e r m in .th e eq u ation

. r e p r e se n ts , the to ta l v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c ia t e d w ith

the c o v a r ia n c e of U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l In c o m e and in d iv id u a l

c o u n try p ro d u ct io n and i s c o m p u ted as tw ic e the p ro d u ct of the two

r e g r e s s i o n . .co e ff ic ien ts and the c o v a r ia n c e of U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l

In c o m e and the c o u n tr y 's p ro d u ct io n .

The to ta l v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c ia t e d w ith the

c o v a r ia n c e of U n ited S ta tes N a tio n a l In c o m e and the o th er

c o u n t r i e s 8 p r o d u c t io n , i s r e p r e s e n t e d in the fifth t e r m of the

eq u ation . The fo l lo w in g t e r m s of the eq u a t io n .h a v e a s i m i l a r

m e a n in g w ith r e g a r d to the o th er v a r ia b le s under s tud y . E ith e r

18

r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c ie n t or the c o v a r ia n c e m a y be n e g a t iv e or p o s i t iv e

so that any of the th r e e t e r m s in v o lv in g the c o v a r ia n c e m a y be

v a r ia n c e of e x p o r ts e a r n in g s that is "unexp la ined" by the s u m of

the p r e v io u s s ix t e r m s . It m u st be z e r o or p o s i t iv e , b e c a u s e the

l e a s t s q u a r e s p r o c e d u r e fo r m a l ly a s s u r e s that the r e s id u a l

v a r ia n c e i s l e s s than or eq u a l to the o r ig in a l v a r ia n c e of the

d ep en d en t v a r ia b le .

The e le m e n t s of eq u ation II -2 can be r e d e f in e d in the

fo l lo w in g way:

A s y s t e m for a l lo c a t in g the v a r ia n c e s a s s o c i a t e d w ith the

c o v a r ia n c e of the in d ep en d en t v a r ia b le s am on g the in d ep en d en t

v a r ia b le s i s as fo l lo w s:

w h e r e ) i s the p o r t io n of Ejj w h ich i s a l lo c a te d to E^.

The co m p u ta t io n of the v a r ia n c e in v o lv e s the s u b s tr a c t io n

of the m e a n va lu e f r o m e a c h o b s e r v a t io n . In the c o n te x t of th is

n e g a t iv e or p o s i t iv e . The f in a l t e r m , u e , r e p r e s e n t s the to ta l

Ei = E , + E + E + E1 £ x A3 4(H -3 )

The Im p o r ta n c e of T ren d

19

study* the r e s u l t in g e s t im a t e o f v a r ia n c e i s m e a s u r e d .about a ; tren d

w hich i s the a v e r a g e n e t chan ge in the s e r ie s , .

S in ce y e a r - t o - y e a r - f lu c t u a t io n s - a b o u t the tr e n d a r e of p r im a r y

in tere st* s o m e f e a tu r e s of the r e g r e s s i o n a n a ly s i s and the e s t im a t e

of the r e g r e s s i o n . c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e d e s ir a b le . R e g r e s s io n - a n a ly s i s

• a p p lied to the f i r s t d i f f e r e n c e of the o b s e r v a t io n s e x t r a c t s the

tr e n d of the d ep en d en t v a r ia b le a s the c o n s ta n t t e r m in the

equation* w h i le the e s t im a t e of the r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a re

b a s e d u p o n .f lu c tu a t io n s about the tren d .

L en gth of P e r io d for V a r ia n c e E s t im a t e s

If the s t r u c tu r e g e n e r a t in g the data r e m a in s u n ch a n g e d * . the

e s t im a t e of v a r ia n c e im p r o v e s as the n u m b e r of o b s e r v a t io n s .is

in c r e a s e d . The o p t im u m b a la n c e b e tw e e n the c o n f l ic t in g g o a ls of

s t a t i s t i c a l r e l ia b i l i t y o f the e s t im a t e and h o m o g en e ity , o f s t r u c tu r e

m u s t u l t im a t e l y be r e s o l v e d by a n -a r b itr a r y , c h o ic e of len g th of

p e r io d . H ow ever* in th is s tu d y a f te r t e s t in g p e r io d s tw elve*

eleven* and te n -y e a r * a t e n - y e a r period* w h ich in c lu d e s n ine

y e a r - t o - y e a r c h a n g e s or - f ir s t d if fe r e n c e s * w as c h o s e n . f o r the

v a r ia n c e and r e g r e s s i o n e s t im a t e s b e c a u s e it y ie ld e d the h ig h e s t

c o r r e la t io n s o The co m p u ta t io n s a r e p e r f o r m e d in a m a n n e r

a n a lo g o u s to the co m p u ta t io n of a m o v in g a v e r a g e .

20

A p e r io d b e tw e e n .1913 and .1963 w a s c h o s e n for c o f fe e and

c o c o a b e c a u s e of a v a i la b i l i ty o f d a ta , H o w e v e r 3. in the c a s e of

ban an as the a v a i la b i l i ty of s t a t i s t i c a l data m a k e s it p o s s i b l e to w ork

w ith the p e r io d .1948 to 1963 on ly .

E s t im a t e s of V a lu e -o f E x p o r ts a n d ,A d ju s tm en t for P r i c eL e v e l C hange

T h is study c o n c e n tr a te s on .th e s ta b i l i t y of the v a lu e of

ex p o r t e a r n in g s b e c a u s e the author b e l i e v e s th is v a r ia b le to be

m o r e c l o s e l y r e la t e d to the w e l fa r e of e x p o r t in g c o u n tr ie s than

p r ic e s ta b i l i ty . The o b je c t iv e in .d e v e lo p in g the data, for a n a ly s i s

is to m a in ta in r e la t iv e y e a r - t o - y e a r c h a n g e s r a th er than a c c u r a c y

o n .a c tu a l l e v e l . S in ce c o m p le te and c o m p a r a b le in fo r m a t io n i s not .

a v a i la b le for the p e r io d under s t u d y , . i t w a s n e c e s s a r y to u s e

d if fe r e n t m e th o d s to co m p u te the v a lu e of e x p o r ts for e a c h cou n try

and c o m m o d ity .

C offee: In the B r a z i l i a n c a s e the va lu e of c o f fe e e x p o r ts in

c r u z e ir o s ^ w a s c o n v e r te d to U n ited S ta te s d o l la r s u s in g the

o f f ic ia l e x c h a n g e ra te for c o f f e e . F o r o th er c o u n tr ie s the period,

4 , A s p u b l ish e d by T. B, G, E , • C o n se lh q N a c io n a l De E s t a d i s t i c a , O B r a z i l en N u m e r o s , A p e n d ic e do A n u ario E s t a d i s t i c o de B r a z i l , . I9 6 0 , P a g e 88,

21

under study w a s d iv id ed .into two p a r t s » F o r e a r ly y e a r s , 1 9 1 3 -1 9 2 9 ,

the C o lo m b ia n e x p o r t p r ic e of c o f fe e m u lt ip l ie d by the v o lu m e of

ex p o r ts of each, co u n try w as c h o s e n as. a c o m p a r a b le f ig u r e of va lu e

of e x p o r t s , taking; in to -a cco u n t that a l l th e s e c o u n tr ie s p ro d u ce the

s a m e type of C o lo m b ia n c o f fe e (m ild ) . F r o m 1930 to 1963 the P an

A m e r ic a n C offee B u r e a u . f ig u r e s w e r e u s e d .

C o c o a : F o r B r a z i l , . the s a m e a p p ro a ch w a s u s e d a s in the

c a s e of c o f f e e . F o r D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic and P a n a m a , the B r a z i l ia n

e x p o r t p r ic e t im e s v o lu m e of e x p o r ts w a s u s e d for 1 9 1 3 -1 9 4 7 p e r io d .

F o r E c u a d o r , the f ig u r e s p u b l ish e d by Ê cuador en c i f r a s " w e r e

u s e d fo r the s a m e p e r io d . F r o m 1948 up. to date the In te r n a t io n a l

F in a n c ia l s t a t i s t i c s f ig u r e s w e r e u s e d .

B a n a n a s : In th is c a s e the p e r io d under study w a s . from 1948

to 1963 b e c a u s e of la c k of. in fo r m a t io n in p r e v io u s y e a r s . The

v a lu e of e x p o r ts p r o v id e d by In te rn a t io n a l F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t ic s w as

u s e d for a l l c o u n t r i e s .

A d ju s tm e n t for P r i c e L e v e l C hanges

S in ce the m e a s u r e s of v a r ia n c e and r e g r e s s i o n m a d e in th is

study a r e taken about the t r e n d .fo r the p e r io d , u n ifo r m r a te s of

ch an ge in p r ic e l e v e l sh ou ld not a f f e c t the r e s u l t s . H o w e v e r ,

c h a n g es in-,the p u r c h a s in g p ow er of the c u r r e n c y h ave not taken

p la c e at u n ifo r m r a te s o v e r t im e .

22

T h u s 9 through out the fo l lo w in g a n a ly s e s the v a lu e s e r i e s have

b een d e f la te d to a d ju s t th e m for c h a n g e s in the r e a l v a lu e of the unit

of m e a s u r e . U nder the a s su m p t io n that the L a t in A m e r ic a n

.c o u n tr ie s u s e - th e e a r n in g s f r o m e x p o r t s to f in a n ce i m p o r t s , f r o m

the U n ited S t a t e s and o th er m o r e d e v e lo p e d c o u n tr ie s the va lu e of

unit of m e a s u r e that w a s c h o s e n a s d e f la to r , w as i t s p u r c h a s in g

pow er a g a in s t good s in a l l t r a n s a c t io n s . T h is i s m o s t adequately-

gau ged by the G. N. P , . im p l i c i t p r ic e -d efla tor

A d d it io n a l Q u a l i f ic a t io n s on the R e s u l t s

A s the fo l lo w in g a n a ly s i s i s b a s e d u p o n . l e a s t - s q u a r e s

r e g r e s s i o n e s t i m a t e s , it w i l l be s u b je c t to the s a m e d e f i c i e n c ie s

that a r e in h e r e n t in th a t te c h n iq u e . The m o s t s a l i e n t f e a tu r e is

the ip a h i l i ty to e s t a b l i s h , c a u s a l i t y »

The a n a ly s e s a r e c a r r i e d out in a s t r i c t l y e x p o s t m a n n e r .

A brupt c h a n g e s in s t r u c tu r e d u r in g .a p e r io d a r e r e f l e c t e d in the

r e s u l t s only, in s o fa r a s they, in f lu e n c e the a v e r a g e r e la t io n s h ip .

M o d e l III - B u ffer Stock and B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m s

The th ird m o d e l i s a p p r o p r ia te to e x p la in two of the m o s t

g e n e r a l ly known s c h e m e s of s ta b i l iz a t io n . It w a s d e v e lo p e d by

2.3

5G ru b e l in o r d e r to e v a lu a t e 'N u r s k e ' s -a s s e r t io n that c o u n tr ie s w i l l

f a i l to m a x i m i z e • f o r e i g n ■ e x c h a n g e ■ e a r n in g s 'i f th ey do s t a b i l i z e

p r i c e s „ G ru b el a r r i v e s at the c o n c lu s io n that the in tr o d u c t io n of

w o r ld p r im a r y c o m m o d ity s t a b i l i z a t io n s c h e m e s d o e s not n e c e s s a r i l y ,

in c r e a s e to ta l f o r e ig n e x c h a n g e ea r n in g s , a c c r u in g ;to th e producing

c o u n t r ie s . •

, A ssum ptions: - •

. l i The 'm a t e r ia l i s p r o d u c e d on ly in u n d e r d e v e lo p e d c o u n tr ie s

and r e q u ir e s no input c o s t in g f o r e ig n .e x c h a n g e ,

, 2. P r o d u c t io n i s r e s p o n s iv e to d o m e s t ic p r ic e a s in d ic a te d

b y th e -.supply cu r v e -sh o w n ' in F ig u r e 2 w h ic h - d o es net. s h if t through. .

th e ' le n g th of b u s i n e s s cy c le . 1 The - sp e c i f i c sh a p e or .p o s it io n of th e

- su p p ly crir v e "ds- of no im p o rta n ce - a t this, p o in t of the - a n a ly s is .as lon g

as i t h a s n e i th e r a z e r o or a n e g a t iv e s lo p e .

3. T he h u s i n e s s c y c l e in :th e ; in d u s t r ia l i z e d c o u n tr ie s c o n s i s t

of...two p e r io d s o f eq u a l l e n g t h , . a d e p r e s s io n p e r io d (during w h ic h th e

• d em a n d cu r v e lo o k s l i k e - D j D j and a b o o m p e r io d d u f in g w hich, the

- d em an d c u r v e lo o k s l ik e D 2D 2 p a r a l l e l ab ove - •

. 4> E x tern a l . d i s e c o n o ih ie s not r e f le c te d in the- s u p p ly cufcve

i t s e l f a r e - z e r o . ; 1 1 ’ .!

5. . The ‘m o d e l p r e s e n t e d in th is s e c t io n i s in a l l e s s e n t i a l , r e s p e c t s s i m i l a r to that of H e r b e r t G. G ru b e l , " F o r e ig n .E x c h a n g e ; E a r n in g s and P r ic e - S t a b i l i z a t io n - .S c h e m e s , " The A m e r ic a h . E c o n o m ic R e v ie w , . V o l . LIV, . N o . 4 , June 1964 ,. pp., 3 7 8 -3 8 5 .

24

D 2

D1M

LN

D2

O

F ig u r e 2. B u ffer S tock P r o g r a m ,

D2

D 1

K

M

L

ND2

F m

oG I B

F ig u r e 3. B u ffer Fund P r o g r a m .

25

It i s c l e a r that t h e s e a s s u m p t io n s im p ly that v a r ia t io n s in

d em an d a r e r e s p o n s ib le for e x i s t in g p r ic e f lu c tu a t io n s . It i s a l s o

im p l ie d that fu tu re m a r k e t s and s to r a g e of the p ro d u ct a r e

in s u f f ic ie n t to o f f s e t th e ir c y c l i c a l v a r ia t io n s in d em an d . W h atever

the s i z e o f t h e s e e q u il ib r a t in g f o r c e s , th e ir in f lu e n c e is a s s u m e d to

be r e f l e c t e d in , t h e sh a p e of the su p p ly c u r v e or d em a n d c u r v e .

- In the f r a m e w o r k o f th is m o d e l to ta l f o r e ig n e x c h a n g e e a r n in g s

w ith out s ta b i l i z a t io n s c h e m e s o v e r the fu l l c y c l e a r e e q u a l to

(OC -"ON) + (OB • OM) (F ig u r e 2), D o e s the in tr o d u c t io n of a

s t a b i l i z a t io n s c h e m e ch an ge the f u l l - c y c l e e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m

(OC • ON) + (OB » O M )? The a n s w e r to th is q u e s t io n d ep en d s on the

e l a s t i c i t i e s o f the d em a n d and su p p ly fu n c t io n s and on w hat type of

s t a b i l i z a t io n s c h e m e is c h o s e n .

The B u ffer S tock P r o g r a m s

The e f f e c t s o f the b u ffer s to c k on s ta b i l i t y ca n be sh o w n by

u s in g the s a m e d ia g r a m in w h ich the fo l lo w in g a s s u m p t io n s a re

m ade:

1. The d em a n d c u r v e has n e g a t iv e s lo p e that i s s ig n i f ic a n t ly

d if fe r e n t f r o m z e r o .

2 . T he su p p ly c u r v e has a p o s i t iv e s lo p e that i s s ig n i f ic a n t ly

d if fe r e n t f r o m z e r o .

3. Sh ifts in su p p ly and d em a n d c u r v e s a r e p a r a l l e l .

26

4 . A l l su pp ly and d em an d s c h e d u le s a r e l in e a r .

A s it w a s p o in ted out a b o v e , s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t iv e s o lu t io n s can

be found dep en d in g on the e l a s t i c i t i e s of su pp ly and d em a n d . A ls o

i t i s ob v io u s that both su p p ly and d em a n d can sh if t f r o m one p e r io d

to a n o th er . A s an i l lu s t r a t iv e e x a m p le , w e can u s e a f lu c tu a t in g

d em an d and a c o n s ta n t su p p ly c u r v e , draw n at a 4 5 ° a n g le . T h u s ,

in F ig u r e 2 , OC i s eq u a l to quantity d em a n d ed , p r o d u c e d , and

e x p o r te d in the f i r s t y e a r at p r ic e ON; OB quantity i s d em a n d ed ,

p r o d u c e d and e x p o r te d in the s e c o n d y e a r at p r ip e 'OM. The

B u ffe r S to ck P r o g r a m s e t s an a v e r a g e p r ic e O L fo r both p r o d u c e r s

and c o n s u m e r s . S o , OE i s eq u a l to quantity d em a n d ed in the f i r s t

year at b u ffer s to c k p r ic e OL; O F i s eq u a l to quantity d em a n d ed at

p r ic e O L in the s e c o n d p e r io d . The am o u n t that i s s o ld by

p r o d u c e r s e a c h y e a r at p r ic e OL i s OI.

The b u ffe r s to c k o r g a n iz a t io n w ou ld buy the quantity E l on

the m a r k e t in p e r io d one and p la c e in s to r a g e u n til the n ex t y e a r

w hen D 2 D 2 o c c u r s and it i s p o s s i b l e to s e l l IF out of s t o c k s .

R ed r a w in g F ig u r e 2 s o that the d em a n d c u r v e s a r e e l a s t i c in the

r e le v a n t ra n g e r e v e a l s that the B u ffe r Stock P r o g r a m w ou ld

d e s t a b i l i z e e x p o r t e a r n in g s and c o m p le t e ly s t a b i l i z e p r o d u c e r

e a r n in g s . R ed ra w in g F ig u r e 2 so that the d em an d c u r v e s a re

in e l a s t i c in the r e le v a n t ra n g e r e v e a l s that the B u ffer S to ck

P r o g r a m w i l l p a r t ia l ly s t a b i l i z e e x p o r t e a r n in g s and c o m p le t e ly

s t a b i l i z e p r o d u c e r e a r n in g s .

27

S in c e the to ta l r e v e n u e w ith the b u ffe r stock p r o g r a m is 2

(O L • OI) the a v e r a g e i s (O L • OI). W ithout a s ta b i l i z a t io n p r o g r a m

and d em a n d D i D j the to ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s w ould f a l l s h o r t of the

a v e r a g e b u ffe r s to c k r e v e n u e by (OI • OL) - (ON • OC). W ith D 2 D 2

the n o n -b u f fe r s to c k r e v e n u e e x c e e d s the b u ffe r s to c k r e v e n u e by

(OB • OM) - (OI • OL). In the d ia g r a m i t i s f a ir ly o b v io u s that

(OI • OL) - (ON • OC) (OB • OM) - (OI • OL) . T h u s , under

the co n d it io n s of th is e x a m p le , the b u ffer s to c k p r o g r a m w i l l

r e d u c e to ta l r e v e n u e to p r o d u c e r s and to ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s ,

b e c a u s e p r o d u c e r s p ro d u c e l e s s w hen d em an d i s f a v o r a b le and .

m o r e w hen d em an d i s l e s s fa v o r a b le than th ey w ould w ith ou t the

b u ffe r s t o c k p r o g r a m .

The B u ffe r Fund P r o g r a m s

B y u s in g the s a m e m o d e l , w e ca n e x a m in e the e f f e c t on

s t a b i l i z a t io n of e x p o r t s e a r n in g s of a s e c o n d type of s ta b i l i z a t io n

s c h e m e .

A s im p le s i tu a t io n i s d e p ic te d in F ig u r e 3, w h e r e D jD j and

D 2 D 2 a r e tw o d em an d c u r v e s in the f i r s t and s e c o n d y e a r s ,

r e s p e c t i v e l y . W ithout a b u ffe r fund s c h e m e , OC and OB a r e

p r o d u c e d and e x p o r te d in the tw o y e a r s , at p r i c e s ON and OM.

The b u ffe r fund o r g a n iz a t io n o f fe r s an a v e r a g e p r ic e OL to

the p r o d u c e r s in e v e r y y e a r and buys the e n t ir e cro p . The

28

p r o d u c e r s w ould p ro d u ce quantity OI in e v e r y y e a r . The buffer fund

o r g a n iz a t io n then s e l l s the quantity OI on the w o r ld m a r k e t e v e r y

y e a r . W hen D iD ^ p r e v a i l s , the p r ic e is OF and the to ta l ex p o r t

e a r n in g s a r e (OF • OI). W hen the d em a n d is D^D^, the quantity OI

i s s o ld at p r ic e OK and to ta l ex p o r t e a r n in g s a r e (OK • OI).

R ed ra w in g F ig u r e 3 so that the d em an d c u r v e s a r e e l a s t i c

in the r e le v a n t r a n g e , it a p p e a r s that the buffer fund p r o g r a m w i l l

p a r t ia l ly s t a b i l i z e e x p o r t e a r n in g s and c o m p le t e ly s t a b i l i z e p ro d u c e r

e a r n in g s . If the d em an d c u r v e s a r e m ad e in e l a s t i c in the

r e le v a n t r a n g e , the buffer fund p r o g r a m w i l l d e s t a b i l i z e e x p o r t

e a r n in g s and c o m p le t e ly s ta b i l i z e p r o d u c e r e a r n in g s .

The buffer fund p r o g r a m w i l l r e d u c e to ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s of

the c y c l e b e c a u s e p r o d u c e r s p ro d u ce l e s s w hen d em a n d i s fa v o r a b le

and m o r e w hen d em an d i s l e s s fa v o r a b le than th ey w ould w ithout the

b u ffer fund p r o g r a m .

E f fe c t s o f P r o g r a m s W hen D em an d Is Stab le and Supply F lu c tu a t in g

C a r r y in g out the s a m e a n a ly s i s for the c a s e w ith a s ta b le

d em an d and f lu c tu a t in g su p p ly r e v e a l s that the buffer s to c k p r o g r a m

r e s u l t s in c o m p le te s ta b i l i z a t io n of e x p o r t e a r n in g s and an i n c r e a s e

in in s ta b i l i t y of p r o d u c e r e a r n in g s . T o ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s a r e

i n c r e a s e d if the d em an d c u r v e is l in e a r or on ly s l ig h t ly c o n v e x to

the o r ig in .

The b uffer fund p r o g r a m w i l l i n c r e a s e e x p o r t e a r n in g s

in s ta b i l i t y w ith s ta b le d em an d and f lu c tu a t in g .supplyo The in c r e a s e

in . in s ta b i l i t y of p r o d u c e r e a r n in g s is the s a m e as for the buffer

s to c k p rogram * T o ta l ex p o r t e a r n in g s a r e r e d u c e d b e c a u s e the

quantity p r o d u ced w hen the p r ic e is. h igh i s l e s s and the quantity

p ro d u c e d w hen p r ic e i s lo w is m o r e than w ould be the c a s e w ithout

the buffer fund p r o g r a m .

The fo l lo w in g ta b le s u m m a r iz e s the e x p e c te d r e s u l t s under

the v a r io u s c i r c u m s t a n c e s that h ave b een d i s c u s s e d .

T A B L E VII. Sum m ary, of the E f fe c t s of B u ffer Stock, and B u ffer "’"Fund P r o g r a m s under D if fe r e n t S o u r c e s of In s ta b i l i ty and D if fe r e n t E la s t i c i t i e s of D em a n d and

-Supply (

F lu c tu a t in g D em an d F lu c tu a t in g Supply, D em an d Supply C urve C onstan t C urve C onstan t

B uffer Stock I II

L I n s ta b i l i ty o f e x p o r t ea r n in g s E la s t i c dem and: in c r e a s eI n e la s t ic demand: r e d u c e C o m p le te re d u c t io n

2. I n s ta b i l i ty o f p r o d u c e r in c o m e C o m p le te re d u c t io n I n c r e a s e

3. T ota l E x p o r t e a r n in g s R ed u ce I n c r e a s e

B u ffer Fund III IV

1. I n s ta b i l i ty o f e x p o r t e a r n in g s E la s t i c dem and: re d u c e I n c r e a s e I n e la s t ic demand: i n c r e a s e

2. I n s ta b i l i ty o f p r o d u c e r in c o m e C o m p le te red u c t io n I n c r e a s e

3, T o ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s R ed u ce R ed uce

C H A P T E R III

1SO U RC ES O F IN ST A B IL IT Y OF E X P O R T EA RN ING S

FR O M C O F F E E , COCOA A ND BA N A N A

The o b je c t iv e of th is chapter, i s to a n a ly s e and to a l lo c a te the

v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m c o f fe e , c o c o a and ban anas am ong

the m o s t p ro b a b le cau ses . .

S om e w r i t e r s b e l i e v e that ,lIt i s p o s s i b l e that the e c o n o m ic

d e v e lo p m e n t r o le of a g r ic u l tu r a l p ro d u c t io n for e x p o r ts i s now

b ein g e x c e s s i v e l y , d is c o u n te d b e c a u s e of a n d n o r d in a te c o n c e r n

w ith p a s t in s ta b il i ty , of e a r n in g s and in s u f f ic ie n t c o n c e r n w ith the

e x p lo i ta t io n of c o m p a r a t iv e a d v a n ta g e ,•11 ̂ On the o th er h a n d , . s o m e

a u th o rs s e e m to s u g g e s t that the d e v e lo p m e n t of p r im a r y p r o d u c -

ing .e c o n o m ie s h as b e e n s e v e r e l y l im i t e d b e c a u s e of Mm i s a l l o c a »

t io n ” of r e s o u r c e s fa v o r in g •p r im a r y c o m m o d ity p r o d u c t io n ra th er

2than • in d u s tr ia l iz a t io n *

1» R o b e r t S. F ir c h , A R e a p p r a is a l of A g r ic u l tu r a l E x p o r ts and .E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t , Jou rm of F a r m , E con .

. V. 46 , N o , 5, pr 9 79 ,

2 0 T h is s u g g e s t io n s e e m s to be h e ld throu gh out the a r t i c l e w r it te n by R aul F r e b i s h , C o m m e r c ia l P o l ic y , in the U n d e r d e v e lo p e d C o u n tr ie s , A m e r „ E con . R ev , V. 49 , M ay; 1954, p p . .2 5 1 -2 7 3 .

3 2

If s ta b i l i z a t io n p r o g r a m s can m a k e a co n tr ib u t io n to e c o n o m ic

d e v e lo p m e n t b y /a l lo w in g m o r e c o m p le te e x p lo i ta t io n of c o m p a r a t iv e

a d v a n ta g e s , then . id en t if ica t io n , of the s o u r c e of in s t a b i l i t y w ould be

a n .e s s e n t ia l , s te p = in the d e s ig n of e f f e c t iv e p r o g r a m s c

The fo l lo w in g .d i s c u s s io n s u g g e s t s f iv e h y p o th e se s .r e g a r d in g

the e x p la n a t io n .o f the v a r ia n c e or T#.ck .of v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s

f r o m c o f f e e , c o c o a and bananas fo r in d iv id u a l c o u n t r i e s , (See

T ab le V I J

1» The d em an d for e x p o r ts ( in c lu d e s U nited S ta te s N ation a l

In c o m e and o th er country, p rod u ction ) i s a m o r e im p o r ta n t s o u r c e

of in s ta b i l i t y than su pp ly (cou n try p rod u ction )^

2„ . A n -im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of in s ta b il i ty , of e x p o r t e a r n in g s is

the c y c l i c a l v a r ia t io n in e c o n o m ic a c t iv i ty , of the d e v e lo p e d

c o u n t r i e s , r e p r e s e n t e d in the a n a ly s i s by the U nited S ta te s ^rational

In c o m e d e f la te d . by G„. N, P . im p l i c i t p r ic e d e f la to r 0

3. The v a r ia n c e o f o th er c o u n t r i e s 1 p r o d u c t io n . i s an

, im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of in s t a b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n i n g s ,

4o The v a r ia n c e of in d iv id u a l c o u n tr ie s p r o d u c t io n as a

r e s u l t of f lu c tu a t io n s in w e a th e r c o n d it io n s or o th er n a tu ra l ev en ts

a n d /o r d e l ib e r a te a c t io n of p r o d u c e r i s an oth er im p o r ta n t s o u r c e

•of in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

5. The v a r ia n c e of the c o u n tr y ’s own p ro d u ct io n i s a m o r e

im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y than The d em an d

33

( in c lu d es U n ited .S ta tes N a tio n a l In c o m e and o th er c o u n t r i e s 1

p rod u ction ) o

The a n a ly s i s of the to ta l v a r ia b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s of the

c o m m o d it ie s under s tu d y and the a l lo c a t io n s to the im p l ie d s o u r c e s

s u g g e s t e d by /the f iv e h y p o th e se s m e n t io n e d above can be p r e s e n te d

by u s in g M o d e l II d e v e lo p e d in C hapter TL

F o r c e r ta in t im e p e r i o d s , p a r t ic u la r ly , th e m o s t r e c e n t

y e a r s , the r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c ie n t r e la t in g c h a n g e s in U n ited S tates

N a tio n a l In c o m e to ch a n g e s in th e v a lu e of ex p o r t e a r n in g s w a s

n e g a t iv e , c o n tr a r y to w hat w e w ould n o r m a lly , expecto On c l o s e r

e x a m in a t io n it b e c a m e o b v io u s that th is r e s u l t a r i s e s from . a .v e r y

c l o s e i n t e r c o r r e l a t io n b e tw e e n U nited S ta te s N a tio n a l In c o m e and

the in d iv id u a l c o u n t r i e s ’ p ro d u ct io n . In e f f e c t , the in f lu e n c e of

d o m e s t ic p r o d u c t io n .o n .th e va lu e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s is b e in g

r e f l e c t e d e r r o n e o u s ly , th rough .the •• in co m e.- .v a r ia b le» F o r th is

. r e a s o n . th e a n a ly s i s w a s r e p e a te d for t h e s e p e r io d s w ithout the

in c o m e v a r ia b le . The r e s u l t s then sh o w the a s s o c ia t io n .w i t h

in c o m e as z e r o >for t h e s e p e r io d s „ - I m f a c t , . the. in c o m e v a r ia b le

s u r e ly has s o m e e f fe c t , a lthough p r o b a b ly ,v e r y s m a l l , o n .e a r n in g s

in s ta b i l i t y that cannot be i s o la t e d b e c a u s e of the s t a t i s t i c a l

p r o b le m s that ar ise , . .

3&

B r a z i l C o ffee

The to ta l v a r ia n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s w a s e x t r e m e ly

.h ig h o v e r the p e r io d 1 9 1 4 -2 7 . It d e c l in e d d r a m a t ic a l ly . fo r t e n -

y e a r p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1.928 to 1933 and r e m a in in g r e l a t iv e l y

c o n s ta n t u n til 1955, T h e r e w as a sh a r p i n c r e a s e fo r p e r io d s

ending in .1955 to 1957. fo l lo w e d by an o th er s u b s ta n t ia l d e c l in e

throu gh 1963.

D urin g - the p e r io d s end ing 1923 to 1927 and .1 9 5 4 -5 6 , . the

v a r ia n c e of n o n - B r a z i l L a t in - A m e r ic a n p ro d u ct io n i s . c l o s e l y

a s s o c ia t e d w ith the to ta l v a r ia n c e of B r a z i l ia n c o f fe e e x p o r t ;

e a r n in g s , w h i le the v a r ia n c e of U n ited S ta tes N a tio n a l In c o m e

sh o w s a T arge d e g r e e of a s s o c i a t i o n .with the to ta l v a r ia n c e of

B r a z i l i a n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s on ly during p e r io d s en d in g 1925

to 1931 a n d .1942 .to 1944, F o r p e r io d s en d in g .fro m . 1923 to 1927,

1938, and f r o m 1954 to 1956, A fr ic a n p ro d u ct io n w a s a s s o c ia t e d

to s o m e e x te n t w ith to ta l v a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a n c o f fe e e x p o r t s ,

(See T a b le VIII and F ig u r e 4, )

O ver the p e r io d c o v e r e d by. th is a n a ly s i s a h igh p ro p o r t io n

of the v a r ia n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s i s g e n e r a l ly a s s o c ia t e d

w ith .f lu c tu a t io n s in e x p o r t d em an d ( in c lu d e s U n ited S ta tes

N a t io n a l I n c o m e , n o n - B r a z i l ia n L a t in - A m e r ic a n p r o d u c t io n and

A fr ic a n p ro d u ct io n ) r a th e r th a n .f lu c t u a t io n s .i n .the su p p ly v a r ia b le ,

B r a z i l i a n p ro d u ct io n .

3%

T A B L E VIII, V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l i n c o m e ?B r a z i l i a n .production , o th er n o n - B r a z i l L a t in .A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s , A fr ic a n .produ ction , and to ta l v a r ia n c e of

B r a z i l i a n .c o f f e e e x p o r t earn ings..

T o ta l O therV a r ia n c e U. S. B r a z i l L a t in A m . A fr ic a nV alu e of N a t ' l . P r o due - C o u n tr ie s P r o d u c - T o ta l

Y ea r E x p o r ts In c o m e tion P r o d u c t io n t io n D em an d

E 1 -EZ iE 3 E 4 E 5 R z1 1 1 i 1 I # !> )2 — — —

.1 3 0 3 14601 9 1 4 -2 3 3005 .2 1047 . 155 . 831 9 1 5 -2 4 3218 • 18 671 1472 .352 1842 . 781 9 1 6 -2 5 3158 • 146 548 1601 ■ 338 2085 . 831 9 1 7 -2 6 •2965 165 649 1291 307 . 1763 . 811 9 1 8 -2 7 2777 258 .490 1174 378 .1810 . 831 9 1 9 -2 8 , 1332 807 123 7 121 935 . 791 9 2 0 -2 9 768 349 68 39 8.8 476 . 711 9 2 1 -3 0 1053 684 \ - 2 17 . 112 813 . 771 9 2 2 -3 1 1034 357 ■ 2 1 23 381 . 371 9 2 3 -3 2 647 88 -2 4 7 . 164 259 . 361 9 2 4 -3 3 401 6 231 . 32 -37 7.5 . 581 9 2 5 -3 4 381 . 38 219 . 160 -8 5 283 . 871 9 2 6 -3 5 383 14 178 106 -5 7 . 177 . 631 9 2 7 -3 6 393 56 93 73 -2 4 153 . 511 9 2 8 -3 7 369 57 41 92 16 165 . 561 9 2 9 -3 8 .475 70 -1 3 .33 215 318 . 641 9 3 0 -3 9 265 42 . 05 - . 4 51 97: . 351 9 3 1 -4 0 .386 .1 . 01 25 56 .8 2 . 2119 3 2 -4 1 426 51 . . 9 59 - . 3 • 113 . 261 9 3 3 -4 2 331 148 • 22 -6 2 .156 . 501 9 3 4 -4 3 4 54 1 9 2 32 64 4 260 . 651 9 3 5 -4 4 588 139 67 . 18 9d 248 . 541 9 3 6 -4 5 591 61 • 36. 3 89 153 . 321 9 3 7 -4 6 707 ,1 7 0 5 2 6 .38 . 2 81 9 3 8 -4 7 488 152 18 97 115 . 551 9 3 9 -4 8 544 115 7 . 102 .109 .4 11 9 4 0 -4 9 .3 7 2 0 28 27 55 . 151 9 4 1 -5 0 400 41 2 . 5 ■2. 6 . 111 9 4 2 -5 1 278 27 11 6 ,17 . 161 9 4 3 -5 2 319 64 21 38 59 . 391 9 4 4 -5 3 302 68 ; 37 24 61 . 4 31 9 4 5 -5 4 592 >:< 21 ' 177 55 232 . 43

36

T A B L E VIII. (C ontinued)

1 9 4 6 -5 5 626 * 14 248 141 389 . 651 9 4 7 -5 6 .1 0 4 5 * 102 374 ■ 350 724 . 791 9 4 8 -5 7 1360 * 112 253 156 409 . 381 9 4 9 -5 8 1278 * 90 177 141 318 . 3 2

1 9 5 0 -5 9 ,1 1 4 8 * .4 " 82 84 166 . 151 9 5 1 -6 0 . 1106 * 5 141 100 241 . 221 9 5 2 -6 1

00 o

1—

1

r-K 4 31 63 94 . 081 9 5 3 -6 2 1097 ■* 5 36 59 95 . 0 91 9 5 4 -6 3 459 * . 1 6 ,5 11 . 03

a C olu m n 2 p lu s 4 p lu s 5.

* U n ited S ta te s N ational I n c o m e o m it te d .

3200

3000

a z i l ia n cof:ia n c e of BT o ta l v;

2000

Lai in A m e r ic a :! p rod u ctior1500

1000r a z i l

A

U .S . N a t io n a l Ir co m e500

A f A fric anp rod u ction

:tionr ica n produV

F ig u r e 4 . V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U .S . N a tio n a l I n c o m e , B r a z i l p rod u ction , o th er n o n - B r a z i l1955

L atin A m e r ic a n c o u n tr ie s ' p rod u ction , A fr ic a n p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of B r a z i l ia n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

Source: T able VIII.u>

38

F o r the r e a s o n s e x p la in e d a b o v e 5 in the p e r io d 1 9 4 5 -6 3 U nited

S ta tes N a t io n a l In c o m e w a s o m it te d in the a n a l y s i s » H o w e v e r , e v e n

■without the in c o m e v a r ia b le th e r e w as a la r g e p r o p o r t io n of to ta l

v a r ia n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c i a t e d w ith f lu c tu a t io n in

d em an d r a th e r than su p p ly . (See T ab le VIII and F ig u r e 5, )

C o lo m b ia C offee

The to ta l v a r ia n c q of CQlombân c o f fe e ex p o r t e a r n in g s w a s

a ls o e x t r e m e ly h igh o v e r . th e p e r io d 1 9 1 4 -2 7 . It d e c l in e d d r a s t i c a l ly

for the t e n - y e a r p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1924 to. 1929 and d e c l in e d

s l ig h t ly u n til the end of 1942, ' T h e r e w a s a la r g e i n c r e a s e for

p e r io d s end ing 1942 t o •• 1946 fo l lo w e d by a s u b s ta n t ia l d e c l in e for

p e r io d s end ing .1949 to 1963,

The v a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia n p r o d u c t io n a p p e a r e d to be

a s s o c i a t e d w ith a la r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia n

c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s for t e n - y e a r p e r io d s ending f r o m 1922 to

1927, and f r o m 1939 to -1 9 4 2 ? The v a r ia n c e of U nited S ta te s

N a tio n a l I n c o m e is a s s o c i a t e d w ith s o m e p ro p o r t io n of^the to ta l

v a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia n c o f fe e ex p o r t earn in g^ for p e r io d s ending

f r o m 1.926-34, The v a r ia n c e o f n o n ?-C o lo m b ia n p ro d u c t io n i s

a s s o c i a t e d w ith .to ta l v a r ia n c e of C o lo m b ia n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s

for p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1927 to 193 0 and . 1946..to 1953, F o r the

3500

3000o ta l v a r ia n c

(% A)

2000

Dtal dem and

1500

Bi a z i l \ P rod u ct!^ (Supply) J1000

500

T o ta l dem and \ w ithout

V' \ in c o m e

T94U I960 I 9 M195519501945F ig u r e 5„ V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith d em an d (U.S., N ation a l I n c o m e , o th er n o n - B r a z i l Latin A m e r ic a n

c o u n t r i e s , A fr ic a n p rod u ction ) , su pp ly ( in d iv id u a l cou n try p rod u ction ) and to ta l v a r ia n c ez-x f r* r \ f ^ d d x r T* O O T* 1 OT G

p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1954 to -1963 the a n a ly s i s w a s r e p e a te d w ithout

U nited S ta tes N a t io n a l In c o m e . t(See T ab le IX and F ig u r e 6. )

C o s ta R ic a C o ffee

The r e g r e s s i o n a n a ly s i s of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s of C o sta

R ic a sh o w ed the h igh i n t e r c o r r e l a t io n .o f d o m e s t ic p r o d u c t io n and

U nited S ta tes N a t io n a l In co m e for m o s t t e n - y e a r p e r io d s .an a lysed .

T h e r e fo r e , the e n t ir e p e r io d f r o m 1913 to 1963 w a s s tu d ie d w ith

, the in c o m e v a r ia b le o m it te d .

T he to ta l v a r ia n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s w a s e x t r e m e ly

.h igh o v e r the p e r io d 1 9 1 4 -2 5 . T h e r e w a s a g e n e r a l d e c l in e for

p e r io d s end ing 1926 to -1942 and th en a la r g e i n c r e a s e for p e r io d s

ending f r o m 1943 to -1952, S in ce the p e r io d ending .1952 the

in s ta b i l i t y d e c l in e d u n til 1962.

I n .th is c a s e the to ta l v a r ia n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s i s

not h ig h ly a s s o c i a t e d w ith .th e o th er v a r i a b l e s . O ver the p e r io d of

a n a ly s i s it a p p e a r s that n o n -C o s ta R ic a n p r o d u ct io n h as b een s o m e

w hat m o r e im p o r ta n t in c a u s in g v a r ia n c e in the v a lu e of c o f fe e

e x p o r t than has the c o u n tr y 's own p ro d u ct io n , (See T a b le X and

F ig u r e 7. )

4:1

T A B L E IX „ V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta tes N ational I n c o m e , C o lo m b ia n p ro d u ct io n , non - C o lo m b ia n p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e .o f C o lo m b ia n .c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s o

Y e a r

V a lu e o f E x p o rt

E 1

U. S.N a t ' l .

I n co m e

E 2

C o lo m b ia P r o d u c -

tio ii

E 3

N o n - C o lo m b ia P r o d u c

t io n

E 4' 2R :.

9~ % A -r

1 9 1 3 -2 2 2539 - . 4 4 1378 14 . 57.1 9 1 4 -2 3 2551 43 1385 18 . 57

1 9 1 5 -2 4 2718 30 1372 -0 , 521 9 1 6 -2 5 2610 118 .1456 -2 . 601 9 1 7 -2 6 2117 - .243 1109 . 22 . 651 9 1 8 -2 7 2122 170 850 138 . 541 9 1 9 -2 8 .1296 .. ,176 217 . 352 . . 5 71 9 2 0 -2 9 .4 6 3 0. 08 83 10 . 201 9 2 1 -3 0 558 255 ■ 4 106 . 651 9 2 2 -3 1 .546 261 6 .40 . 561 9 2 3 -3 2 541 111 18 48 . 331 9 2 4 -3 3 281 68 . 16 15 . 361 9 2 5 -3 4 344 171 61 .11 .7 11 9 2 6 -3 5 279 39 2 .6 . 17

. 1 9 2 7 -3 6 298 • 54 73 5 . 441 9 2 8 -3 7 234 56 .45 10 . 4 81 9 2 9 -3 8 234 ' 45 64 30 . 601 9 3 0 -3 9 161 19 ; 113 3 . 841 9 3 1 -4 0 213 6 .134 -0 . 66

- 1 9 3 2 -4 1 194 0. 0 119 7 . 651 9 3 3 -4 2 204 0 127 5 . 65

- 1 9 3 4 -4 3 323 16 -0 121 . 4 2I 9 3 5 - 4 4 358 .4 0 16 . 051 9 3 6 -4 5 592 . 66 7 .64 .2 31 9 3 7 -4 6 679 ,18 .43 281 . ¥ 01 9 3 8 -4 7 674 26 31 265 . 4 81 9 3 9 -4 8 .656 .32 27 264. . 4 9I 9 4 O- 4 9 , 523 50 4 148 . 391 9 4 1 -5 0 .538 59 0 150 . 391 9 4 2 -5 1 548 . 102 57 129 . 531 9 4 3 -5 2 .467 .20 . 4 92 . 241 9 4 4 -5 3 4 10 15 1.3 285 . 77

.1 9 4 5 - 5 4 109 * 10 16 . 25

.1 9 4 6 -5 5 135 >:< 3 5 . 0 6

1 9 4 7 -5 6 225 . 7 43 , 191 9 4 8 -5 7 231 . 2 6 . 021 9 4 9 -5 8 251 2 27 . 121 9 5 0 -5 9 , 179 . 5 17 . 091 9 5 1 -6 0 212 1 45 . 221 9 5 2 -6 1 209 . 1 17 . 081 9 5 3 -6 2 124 3 12 . 121 9 5 4 -6 3 92 2 .4 . 07

.Ûnited S ta tes N a t io n a l In co m e o m it te d .

2700

2000

Dtal v a r ia n c

1500

Dia p rod u ct ion1000

500

p ro d u ct io n

U . S . Nat I n c o m e

LOy

1960 [9631955195019451940193519301922 1925

F i g u r e 6 . V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U. S. N at ion a l I n c o m e , C o lo m b ia n product ion , n o n - C o l o m b i a n p rod u ct ion and tota l v a r i a n c e of C o lo m b ia co f f e e e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

S ou rce: T ab le XIX;u>

44

T A B L E X. V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d .with C o s t a R i c a n p ro d u ct io n , n o n - C o s t a R i c a n p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of C o s ta R i c a n . c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s / ' '

Y e a rV a lu e of

E x p o r t s

E x

C o s ta R i c a P r o d u c t i o n

- e 3

N o n - C o s t a R i c a P r o duct ion

E 42

R;

- - - - (% A ) 2 —1 9 1 3 -2 2 .1813 27 2 . 0 1

1 9 1 4 -2 3 1830 63 5 . 041 9 1 5 - 2 4 1884 7 73 . 041 9 1 6 - 2 5 1811 , 1 0 47 . . 031 9 1 7 - 2 6 ,1062 7 2 . 0081 9 1 8 - 2 7 952 3 . 2 . 0031 9 1 9 -2 8 834 . 8 2 . 0 0 2

1 9 2 0 - 2 9 744- 32 1 1 2 . 191 9 2 1 - 3 0 763 - 0 85 . 1 1

1 9 2 2 -3 1 763 - 1 6 6 . 08, 1 9 2 0 -3 2 . 908 .118, 40 , 1 71 9 2 4 -3 3 720 1 2 157 . 241 9 2 5 - 3 4 69-1 . . 17 . 179 . 281 9 2 6 - 3 5 618 .34 143 . 281 9 2 7 - 3 6 621 58 .235 . 471 9 2 8 -3 7 727 - 4 98 . 131 9 2 9 - 3 8 . 74.7 3 124 . 171 9 3 0 - 3 9 740 2 131 . 181 9 3 1 - 4 0 760 - 7 • 5 95 . 1 2

1 9 3 2 -4 1 566 .4 9 ., 0 2

1 9 3 3 - 4 2 .352 . 09 ■ 1 6 . 041 9 3 4 - 4 3 397 6 .48 . 141 9 3 5 - 4 4 ,443 17 1 . 041 9 3 6 - 4 5 457 . 1 0 0 2 1 . . 261 9 3 7 - 4 6 883 91 . 0 . 1 0

1 9 3 8 - 4 7 . 1180 279 ,45 . 271 9 3 9 -4 8 . 1 2 2 1 . 170 .18 . . 151 9 4 0 -4 9 1240 227 239 . 371 9 4 1 - 5 0 1413 103 153 . 181 9 4 2 -5 1 1.569 1 6 0 .193 . 2 2

1 9 4 3 - 5 2 1728 227 282 . 291 9 4 4 -5 3 1 6 1 0 1 0 2 130 . 141 9 4 5 - 5 4 1634 91 2 2 2 . 191 9 4 6 -5 5 1230 7 671 . 551 9 4 7 - 5 6 864 23 454 . . 55

45

T A B L E X. (C ontinued)

1 9 4 8 -5 7 . 8 3 4 101 1 6 6

19 4 9 - 5 8 659 75 . 231 9 5 0 - 5 9 623 36 251 9 5 1 - 6 0 404 121 21 9 5 2 t6 1 302 91 1 0

1 9 5 3 - 6 2 180 26 71 9 5 4 -6 3 183 42 13

'‘'U n ited S ta te s N ation a l I n c o m e o m it te d .

. 32

. 15

. 09

. 30

. 33

. 19

. 30

2 0 0 0

( %A)

1500T ota l v a r i a n c e

1000

500 N o n -C os . prodm

ta R ica t ion

Costa R ic a n product^bn^ ,

I960 19631 9 2 2 1925 19551945 • 19501935 19401930F i g u r e 7. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with C o s ta R ic a prod uct ion , n o n - C o s t a R ic a p rod u ct ion and tota l

v a r i a n c e o i C o s t a R i c a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .S ou rce: T ab le X.

4:7

D o m in ic a n R e p u b l ic C offee

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s g e n e r a l l y d e c l in e d

until the p e r i o d ending in 1936 , . i n c r e a s e d for p e r i o d s e n d i n g ; 1936

to 1945 and d e c l i n e d for p e r i o d s ending 1945 to 1954, S in ce W orld

War IT'the v a r i a n c e h a s b e e n , r a t h e r lo w and co n s ta n t ,

A l a r g e proport ion , of the to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o f f e e e x p o r t

e a r n i n g s w a s a s s o c i a t e d w ith .the v a r i a n c e of D o m i n i c a n R ep ub l ic

p r o d u c t io n Tor the p e r i o d s ending 1 9 2 2 - 2 8 , and 1940 to 1948,

with n o n - D o m i n i c a n .Republic p r o d u c t io n for the p e r i o d s ending

f r o m 1925 to 1928 and .1945 to 1953, and U nited S ta tes N at ion a l

I n c o m e for p e r i o d s ending 1925 to 1928 and 1942 to 1944. F o r the

p e r i o d s e n d in g - f r o m 1946 to 1962 the a n a l y s i s w as c a r r i e d on

w ithout U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e , . (See Tab le XI and

F i g u r e 8- )

E cu a d o r C of fee

E c u a d o r has e x p e r i e n c e d a d a r g e r v a r i a n c e of c o f f e e e x p o r t

e a r n i n g s than any of the o th er c o u n t r i e s . Th is v a r i a n c e r e a c h e d

l e v e l s that w e r e lo w r e l a t i v e to the r e m a i n d e r of the p e r i o d s on ly

-for. t h o s e p e r i o d s end ing ; 1930 to 1933, 1943 to 1949, and 1959 to

1963.

48

T A B L E X I e V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta te s N at iona l I n c o m e , D o m i n i c a n R ep u b l ic p rod u ct ion , n o n - D o m i n i c a n R ep u b l ic p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of D o m in ic a n

•Republ ic co f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s »

Y e a rV alue of

E x p o r t s

•El

U, S, Nat!L I n c o m e

e 2

D o m i n i c a nR e p u b l icP r o d u c t i o n

'E3

N o n - D o m i n - i c a n R e p u b l i c P r o d u c t ion

E 4 R 2

1 9 1 3 -2 2 6681 - m (% A ) 45-15-............ 406 . 761 9 1 4 -2 3 6790 . 142 4831 408 . 791 9 1 5 - 2 4 7422 130 5400 .374 . 801 9 1 6 -2 5 7180 437 . 1176 2033 » 511 9 1 7 - 2 6 6259 931 ; 9 0 i . 1516 . 5.3 ,1 9 1 8 - 2 7 5545 654 6 2 6 1195 . 501 9 1 9 - 2 8 5375 821 1142 1272 . 6 0

1 9 2 0 -2 9 1963 23 369 - 0 . 2 0

1 9 2 1 - 3 0 2495 72 475 -3 . 2 2

1 9 2 2 -3 1 1498 72 447 . 1 6 . 361 9 2 3 - 3 2 1158 272 180 9 . 4 01 9 2 4 -3 3 9 0 2 . 1 2 4 152 78 . 391 9 2 5 - 3 4 798 - 6 6 8 187 . 311 9 2 6 - 3 5 722 46 .104 1 2 6 . 381 9 2 7 - 3 6 995 6 4 37 . 041 9 2 8 -3 7 . 1039 . 4 6 79 . 081 9 2 9 -3 8 . 1271 1 24 35 . 051 9 3 0 . 3 9 . 1444 . 0 1 82 5 . 0 6

1 9 3 1 - 4 0 2204 57 553 35 . 291 9 3 2 -4 1 2573 95 440 96 , 2 41 9 3 3 - 4 2 2 2 9 0 315 209 . 8 . 2 31 9 3 4 -4 3 2 6 9 0 489 2 1 2 56 . 291 9 3 5 - 4 4 2591 . 643 230 2 0 . 341 9 3 6 -4 5 3037 . 24 82$ 964 . 6 0

1 9 3 7 - 4 6 2942 5 1 2 0 0 560 , 6 0

1 9 3 8 -4 7 . 2586 '!< 847 728 . 6 1 :.1 9 3 9 - 4 8 2332 553 631 . 511 9 4 0 -4 9 , 1364 * 85 6.34 . 531 9 4 1 - 5 0 1227 ■ .43 431 . 391 9 4 2 -5 1 1089 * 65 5.32 . 551 9 4 3 - 5 2 977 ❖ 98 395 . 501 9 4 4 -5 3 771 * 40 2 9 2 . 4 31 9 4 5 - 5 4 352 * 2 0 2 . . 06

49

T A B L E XI. (Continued)

1 9 4 6 -5 5 404 * 74 25 . 2 51 9 4 7 - 5 6 302 * 25 8 . 1 1

1 9 4 8 -5 7 395 * 45 84 , 331 9 4 9 -5 8 188 * 1 0 1 , 0 6

1 9 5 0 - 5 9 ,316 ■* .3 0 2 . 1 0

1 9 5 1 - 6 0 301 * 8 8 .16 . 341 9 5 2 -6 1 438 * 35 180 . 491 9 5 3 - 6 2 .597 * 67 205 . 4 51 9 5 4 -6 3 582 .* 27 . 224 . 4 3

'‘'U nited S ta te s N at ion a l I n c o m e o m i t t e d .

7 5 0 0

*- T Dtal jyarianc5000

-^Dominican R ep ub l ic p rod u ct ion

3750

2500

N o n - D o m m i c a n R ep ub l ic p rod u ct ion

1250

S. Natio: n c o m e

I960 19631922 1925

F i g u r e 8 . V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U . S . Nat ional In com e , D o m in ic a n R ep ub l ic product ion , non-

195519501945194019351930. _________ . . . . A product io

D o m in ic a n R ep u b l ic p r o d u ct io n and tota l v a r i a n c e of D o m in ic a n R epubl ic co f feepubl icD o m in ic a n RNat ionalS IncomeUwithc ia te dV a r ia n c e neoas s

e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . mS ource: Table XI. 0

A l a r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e a p p e a r e d a s s o c i a t e d

w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e for t e n - y e a r p e r i o d s ending

1926 t o '1929, 1940 to 1946 and 1951 to ■1954, with non - E c u a d o r

p ro d u ct io n for the p e r i o d s e n d i n g , 1934 to 1942, . and w ith E cu ad or

p ro d u ct io n for the p e r i o d s ending 1951 to 1963, F o r the p e r i o d s

ending f r o m 1 9 5 6 . t o ? 19.63 the a n a l y s i s o m i t t e d U ni ted S ta tes

N at ion a l I n c o m e , (See T a b le XII and F i g u r e 9, )

E l Sa lvad or C o f fee

In . c o n tr a s t w ith - a l l o th er c o u n t r i e s 9 the to ta l v a r i a n c e of

c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s of E l S a lvad or i n c r e a s e d s u b s t a n t ia l l y o v e r

the p e r i o d s - f r o m 1913 to 1922 to the end of 1928, T h e r e w as: a

g e n e r a l d e c l in e for the p e r i o d s ending 1932 to 1951, The v a r i a n c e

has b een l o w and w i th o u t any tr e n d for p e r i o d s e n d in g .a f t e r 1950,

A l a r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o f f e e e x p o r t

e a r n i n g s a p p e a r e d a s s o c i a t e d w ith v a r i a n c e of E l S a lvad or p r o d u c

t ion for p e r i o d s ending from- 1926 to -19 4 1 3 with n o n - E l Sa lvad or

p r o d u c t io n for p e r i o d s en d in g . fr om . 1928 to 1 9 3 1 9. 1944 to 1949,

. and 1958 to 1960, (See Table • XIII. and F i g u r e TO, ) F o r the

p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1923 to 1924 a n d .1955 to 1963, U n i ted States

• N a t io n a l I n c o m e w a s o m i t t e d f r o m the a n a l y s i s . In the r e m a i n i n g

p e r i o d s t h e r e w a s a s m a l l p r o p o r t io n of the v a r i a n c e of U ni ted

52

T A B L E XIIo V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l Income* E cu a d o r p ro du ct ion , n o n - E c u a d o r p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of E cu a d o r c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s e

V a lu e of U. S. E c u a d o r • N on ^ E cu ad orY e a r E x p o r t s N at ' l . P r o d u c - P r o d u c t i o n

I n c o m e tionE 1 e 2 e 3 e 4 r 2

( % A ) 21 9 1 3 - 2 2 7657 2 0 107 2 2 1 . 041 9 1 4 - 2 $ 7510 13 41 147 . 031 9 1 5 - 2 4 2478 27 . 37 27 . 041 9 1 6 -2 5 2677 . 2 56 103 <, 061 9 1 7 - 2 6 2400 1375 158 214 . 731 9 1 8 -2 7 2189 , 1084 269 , 3 9 6 . 801 9 1 9 - 2 8 2197 . 1 0 6 2 .271 208 . 7 01 9 2 0 - 2 9 2215 4 66 300 8 6 . 381 9 2 1 - 3 0 665 -7 4 89 . 131 9 2 2 -3 1 681 5 5 .1.26 . 2 0

1 9 2 3 - 3 2 700 . 1 1 136 . 2 0

1 9 2 4 -3 3 8 8 6 6 8 8 250 . 3 81 9 2 5 - 3 4 1400 1 6 461 548 . 701 9 2 6 - 3 5 1771 . . 05 2 1 6 857 , 6 0

1 9 2 7 - 3 6 1762 38 117 9 1 8 . 6 1

1 9 2 8 - 3 7 1765 41 . 126 9 6 1 . 641 9 2 9 -3 8 .1914 116 1 1 6 823 . 551 9 3 0 -3 9 1939 34 72 1 2 1 0 . 6 8

1 9 3 1 - 4 0 1923 185 - 1 0 1447 . 8 41 9 3 2 -4 1 1999 647 -5 9 . 1071 . 831 9 3 3 - 4 2 1891 .454 59 1052 . 831 9 3 4 . 4 3 1042 .3 62 .125 208 . 671 9 3 5 - 4 4 837 .4.32 6 8 33 . 641 9 3 6 -4 5 760 351 82 2 .. 571 9 3 7 - 4 6 745 257 ,40 3 . 4 01 9 3 8 -4 7 372 26 5 1 . 081 9 3 9 - 4 8 409 ,38 33 -0 . 171 9 4 0 -4 9 . 393 4 4 35 0 . 2 0

1 9 4 1 - 5 0 1655 140 83 3 . 141 9 42-51 1743 4 06 381 2 2 . 4 61 9 4 3 - 5 2 1751 609 ,5 8 0 13 . 691 9 4 4 - 5 3 1850 444 6 0 8 . 0 2 . 571 9 4 5 - 5 4 1797 318 562 69 . 5 3

53

T A B L E XII. (Continued.)

1 9 4 6 -5 5 2 2 6 0 -16 1059 0 . 4 81 9 4 7 -5 6 2372 * 1512 . 1 1 , 641 9 4 8 -5 7 2411 * 1738 . 1 . 721 9 4 9 -5 8 2505 _* 2 0 6 8 97 . 8 6

1 9 5 0 -5 9 1218 * 768 23 . 651 9 5 1 - 6 0 1185 . * 525 13 ' . 451 9 5 2 -6 1 1294 * 441 157 . 4 61 9 5 3 - 6 2 1502 * 468 191 . 4 41 9 5 4 -6 3 1323 * .332 264 . 45

'‘'U n ited S ta te s R ation a l In com e o m it te d .

10000 f —

7500

5000 Dtal v a r ia n c

2500 Ecu ador { prod u ct ion

Non.-Ecua.dor prod u ct ionU. S . \ N a t i o n a l L o m e

u 192 2"'1923F i g u r e 9. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U nited S tates Nat ional I n c o m e , E cu a d o r product ion , n o n -E c u a d o r

1940T93TTp roduct ionNational I n c o m e E cu adoUnited Statec ia ted with rsas s o

p ro d u ct io n and total v a r i a n c e of E c u a d o r c o f fee ex p o r t e a r n i n g s .S ou rce: T ab le XII. in

55

T A B L E XIII. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e , E l . S a lv a d o r production^ N o n - S a l v a d o r p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of EL S a lvad or c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Y e a rV alu e of E x p o r t s

E i

U . S .■ N a t ’l. I n c o m e

e 2

E l Sa lvador P r o d u c t i o n

.E3

N o n - S a l v a d o r P r o d u c t i o n

-E 4 R 2

________ / oz. a x 2 ___ _______---- --------( /o A)1 9 1 3 -2 2 * 1030 * .186 79 . 261914-23*. 1017 * . 6 6 40 . 1 0

. 1 9 1 5 -2 4 1130 16 7 70 . 081 9 1 6 - 2 5 1313 .35 156 0 . 141 9 1 7 - 2 6 1215 3-66 275 78 , 5 91 9 1 8 -2 7 1577 405 .554 127 . 691 9 1 9 - 2 8 ,1733 297 661 9 . 561 9 2 0 - 2 9 ,1 8 7 1 -7.0 526 976 . 761 9 2 1 - 3 0 1705 140 665 681 . 871 9 2 2 - 3 1 .:. .1416 124 552 335 . 641 9 2 3 - 3 2 1958 , 1 0 1 .1173 239 . 771 9 2 4 . 3 3 1706 4 4 1025 8.4 . 6 8

1 9 2 5 - 3 4 1699 53 955 175 . 70.1 9 2 6 -3 5 1402 135 639 77 . 611 9 2 7 . 3 6 ,1 1 6 9 , LOO 417 .61 . 4 91 9 2 8 -3 7 . 1 1 0 0 .133 4 52 . 1 1 , 5 41 9 2 9 -3 8 .1148 158 879 15 , 9 21 9 3 0 - 3 9 . 1 1 6 6 158 889 23 . 921 9 3 1 - 4 0 .1188 . 126 938 6 . 901 9 3 2 -4 1 • 6 6 0 23.. 3 64 1 2 2 . 771 9 3 3 - 4 2 766 167 .49 ■ ; 176 , 501 9 3 4 -4 3 727 - 159 51 , 125 . 4 71 9 3 5 - 4 4 .731 133 39 2 2 0 . 541 9 3 6 - 4 5 728 141 -0 375 . 711 9 3 7 - 4 6 539 .126 1 2 0 0 . 6 1

1 9 3 8 -4 7 480 9 6 1 2 1 2 . 591 9 3 9 - 4 8 502 9 . 1 2 199 . 4 41 9 4 0 -4 9 , 478 8 2 194 . 4 31 9 4 1 - 5 0 360 51 2 ,104 . 4 31 9 4 2 -5 1 245 4 3 65 . 291 9 4 3 - 5 2 268 .3 15 33 . 191 9 4 4 -5 3 2 9 2 2 2 .37 . 141 9 4 5 - 5 4 255 * 1 . 1 . 009

56

T A B L E XIII* (Continued)

1 9 4 6 -5 5 275 * .; 2 .34 . 131 9 4 7 - 5 6 1 9 8 • * 3 6 . 051 9 4 8 -5 7 185 * 6 26 . 141 9 4 9 -5 8 .356 ■* 39 270 . 871 9 5 0 - 5 9 302 * TO 249 . 8 6

1 9 5 1 - 6 0 .263 . * .4 125 . 4 91 9 5 2 -6 1 263 * . 0 -- 75 . 281 9 5 3 - 6 2 270 ■* . 0 6 70 . 261 9 5 4 -6 3 217 * 74 32 . 4 9

'‘'U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e om itted*

I

2000

1500—T o ta l v a r i a n c e

1000

■El Sa lvador p rod uct ion

/VV ' v \'^-Non-SalvEi^prjproducti^)

\ Vi. f^^tional [ncom e

xZ

500

JJ.

01922 1 I960 1963195519501945194019351930

F ig u r e 10. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a t io n a l I n c o m e , E l S a lvad or p rod u ction , n o n -E l Sa lvad orp ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of E l Sa lvad or c o f fe e ex p o rt e a r n in g s .

S ou rce: T ab le XIII.

58

S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e a s s o c i a t e d w ith to ta l v a r ia n c e o f c o f f e e e x p o r t

e a r n in g s 6

G u a te m a la C o ffee ̂ — ------

In the p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1923 to 1931, the to ta l

v a r ia n c e o f c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n in g s d e c l in e d sh a rp ly ; but i t i n c r e a s e d

in the t e n - y e a r p e r io d s en d in g 1 9 3 1 -4 3 . F o r the p e r io d s end ing

1943 to 1963 th e r e w a s _a g e n e r a l d e c l in e .

B oth the v a r ia n c e o f U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a l In c o m e and the

v a r ia n c e o f n o n -G u a te m a la p ro d u c t io n a r e a s s o c i a t e d w ith a la r g e

p r o p o r t io n o f the to ta l v a r ia n c e fo r the ten y e a r p e r io d s end ing

' / ' . v' f r o m 1934 to 1939. O nly in the p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1935 to

1941 and 1953 to 1956 w a s the v a r ia n c e o f G u a te m a la p r o d u c t io n

a s s o c i a t e d w ith a la r g e p r o p o r t io n o f the to ta l v a r ia n c e o f c o f fe e

e x p o r t e a r n in g s . N o n -G u a te m a la n p r o d u c t io n a p p e a r e d to be

im p o r ta n t fo r p e r io d s :end in g .1942, 1943, 1947 and 1948. (See

T a b le s XIV and F i g u r e 11. ) F o r the p e r io d s end ing f r o m 1955 to

1963 the a n a ly s i s o m it t e d U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e .

H a it i C o ffe e

The v a r ia n c e o f c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n in g s for H a it i w a s r e l a t iv e l y

h ig h and ch an g in g , btit w ith ou t tr e n d o v e r the e n t ir e p e r io d of s tud y .

59

T A B L E X IV » V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w i th U ni ted S ta tes Nat ional I n c o m e , G u a t e m a l a p rod u ct ion , n o n - G u a t e m a l a p r o d u c t i o n _ and to ta l v a r i a n c e of G u a te m a l a co f fee e x p o r t e a r n i n g s „

Y ea rV alue of E x p o r t s

E 1

U. S. N at ' l .

I n c o m ee 2

G u a t e m a l aP r o d u c t i o n

e 3

N o n - G u a t e m a l a P r o d u c t i o n

E 4 , R 2

1 9 1 3 - 2 2 954A ) 2 -----------------

44 -5 . 061 9 1 4 -2 3 913 5 20 8 . 0 31 9 1 5 - 2 4 933 7 . 1 37 . 051 9 1 6 - 2 5 957 5 12 29 . 051 9 1 7 - 2 6 718 98 71 1 . 241 9 1 8 - 2 7 771 101 7/4 123 . 2 41 9 1 9 - 2 8 .371 158 72 8 . 641 9 2 0 -2 9 276 1 ■ 62 25 . 321 9 2 1 - 3 0 229 . 1 36 17 . 241922r31 471 142 53 144 . 721 9 2 3 - 3 2 .517 194 49 : 115 . 691 9 2 4 - 3 3 396 165 2 94 . 661 9 2 5 - 3 4 904 4.34 69 253 , 841 9 2 6 -3 5 942 2 9 2 174 299 . 8 01 9 2 7 - 3 6 988 .344 243 264 . 861 9 2 8 -3 7 990 334 218 282 . 841 9 2 9 - 3 8 973 332 237 . 190 . 781 9 3 0 - 3 9 973 335 196 231 . 781 9 3 1 - 4 0 1104 119 ,324 112 . 501 9 3 2 -4 1 1088 - . 0 6 581 45 ..581 9 3 3 - 4 2 .1472 100 143 428 . 4 61 9 3 4 -4 3 1054 65 - . 8 ., 199 . 25I 9 3 5 - 4 4 972 69 . 7 . 109 . 181 9 3 6 -4 5 956 21 1 0 ,4.0. . 071 9 3 7 - 4 6 951 36 9 124 . 181 9 3 8 -4 7 1050 22 24 196 . 231 9 3 9 -4 8 1071 25 44 182 .. 231 9 4 0 - 4 9 491 37 . 14 60 . 2 21 9 4 1 - 5 0 522 65 6 50 . 231 9 4 2 -5 1 250 ❖ 26 22 . 191 9 4 3 - 5 2 203 * 39 . 05 . 1 91 9 4 4 -5 3 245 * 89 0 . 301 9 4 5 - 5 4 248 . * 75 . 08 . 30

60

T A B L E XIV, (Continued)

1 9 4 6 -5 5 253 64 1 , 261 9 4 7 - 5 6 . 181 55 0 , 301 9 4 8 - 5 7 1 9 0 3 43 . 251 9 4 9 -5 8 . 178 , 23 4 . 0 2

1 9 5 0 -5 9 1 1 0 15 25 . 371 9 5 1 - 6 0 ,118 5 . 03 , 041 9 5 2 -6 1 80 5 4 . 1 2

1 9 5 3 - 6 2 113 37 , 2 . 331 9 5 4 -6 3 108 37 . 0 1 . 34

"'United S tates Nat ional I n c o m e o m i t t e d .

2 0 0 0

1500

1000

T o ta l va riance

. GuatemzTa.500 . S. N at ional / I n c o m e Y V p r o d u e

y \A \ , n o n

:ion

G u a tem a la

0 1960 TW519351930F ig u r e 11. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a t io n a l In c o m e , G u a tem a la p rod u ction , n o n -G u a te m a la

v p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of G u a tem a la co ffee e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .S ou rce: T ab le XIV.

O'-

62

A la r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e a p p e a r e d to be

a s s o c i a t e d with U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e for the p e r i o d s en d -

ing -from 1926 to = 1929 and fro m . 1941 to • 1944, with n o n - H a i t i p r o d u c

t ion for the p e r i o d ending f r o m 1928 to 1932 and w ith H a i t i p ro d u ct io n

for the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1935 to- 1948 a n d . 1955 t o - 1963 . F o r the

p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1956 to- 1963 the a n a l y s i s o m i t t e d U nited

S tates N a t io n a l I n c o m e . (See T a b le XV and F i g u r e 12. )

H on d u ras C offee

A d r a m a t i c d e c l in e of to ta l v a r i a n c e of co f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s

i s sh ow n in F i g u r e 11 o v e r the p e r i o d s 1 9 1 4 -2 3 and 1 9 2 3 - 3 2 . S ince

1 9 2 3 - 3 2 the v a r i a n c e h as i n c r e a s e d and d e c l in e d but t h e r e h as b een

no t r e n d .

A high p r o p o r t io n of to ta l v a r i a n c e of e x p o r t e a r n i n g s a p p e a r s

to be a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e for the p e r i o d s

ending 1923 to 1931. A s m a l l p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e w a s

a s s o c i a t e d w ith n o n -H o n d u r a s p r o d u c t io n for the p e r i o d s ending

f r o m 1939 to 1945. H ond u ras p ro d u c t io n wa,s a s s o c i a t e d with an

im p o r ta n t part of t o ta l v a r i a n c e for p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1 9 2 2 to

1924. (See Tab le X F I and F i g u r e 13. )

63

T A B L E XVo V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta te s N at ion a l I n c o m e , Hait i prod u ct ion , n o n - H a i t i p ro d u ct io n and tota l v a r i a n c e of H ai t i c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s =

V alu e of ; U„ S. H ait i N o n - H a i t i .Y ear E x p o r t s Nat ' l . P r o d u c - P r o d u c -

In c o m e t ion t ion•El e 2 - E 3 -e4 R

(%A ) 21 9 1 6 -2 5 ' 2969 1 45 . 5 . 0 1

1 9 1 7 - 2 6 2731 1059 92 . 04 . 421 9 1 8 -2 7 2855 1045 93 . 2 . 4 01 9 1 9 - 2 8 1930 1243 163 243 . 851 9 2 0 -2 9 1 6 0 8 316 187 714 . 761 9 2 1 - 3 0 1168 50 6 6 ."701 . 701 9 2 2 -3 1 1 1 1 2 209 15 403 . 561 9 2 3 - 3 2 1004 156 .116 533 . 801 9 2 4 -3 3 1097 . 16 89 47 .. 141 9 2 5 - 3 4 1049 ' 4 70 42 . 1 1

1 9 2 6 -3 5 1286 19 376 117 . 4 01 9 2 7 - 3 6 1588 07 1 0 1 1 159 . 4 71 9 2 8 -3 7 1302 4 984 79 , 821 9 2 9 - 3 8 1129 17 934 25 . 8 6

1 9 3 0 - 3 9 1182 8 1 0 1 2 48 . 901 9 3 1 - 4 0 1571 4 1378 59 . 9 21 9 3 2 -4 1 2347 214 1586 1 . 771 9 3 3 - 4 2 2197 1 6 2 9.40, 34 . 521 9 3 4 -4 3 2412 189 1033 5 . 511 9 3 5 - 4 4 1952 247 471 2 . 371 9 3 6 -4 5 2066 ' 5.1 600 16 . 321 9 3 7 - 4 6 1996 47 . 523 33 . 301 9 3 8 -4 7 1820 * 530 94 . 341 9 3 9 -4 8 . 1 9 0 2 * 5,69; 1 1 1 . 361 9 4 0 -4 9 1233 8 82 . 071 9 4 1 - 5 0 879 . * ’ 43 9 . 0 6

1 9 42-51 586 * 137 2 . 241 9 4 3 -5 2 569 * 134 . 3 0 . 291 9 4 4 -5 3 834 % 136 2 1 . 191 9 4 5 - 5 4 851 ' * 14 145 . 191 9 4 6 - 5 5 1454 * 400 194 . 411 9 4 7 - 5 6 1443 * 4 52 64 . 361 9 4 8 -5 7 1524 * 585 23 . 401 9 4 9 - 5 8 . 1 2 9 6 621 - 2 . 4 8

64

T A B L E X V , (C ontinued)

1 9 5 0 -5 9 1800 * : . 1015 38 . 591 9 5 1 - 6 0 1773 736 13 . 4 21 9 5 2 -6 1 1667 * 496 186 . 411 9 5 3 - 6 2 1914 . 797 204 , 521 9 5 4 -6 3 1476 607 287 . 61

* U ni ted S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e o m i t t e d .

i

3750

2

\ T< >tal var ianc i

/ \ k /Z \ Hait i pi od uct ioA

1 w *

/ AL........

5. N at iona l In co m e

XX . / \\ non? ---— /

-/

/zk a i t i produc

1\

t ion— N

, ---------

Z x'Z___ /X

( % A )

2500

1250

0

F ig u r e 12.. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a tio n a l In c o m e , H ait i p rod u ction , n o n -H a it ip ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of H ait i c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

S ou rce: T able XV.

66

T A B L E XVI, V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e 5 H on du ras p r o d u ct io n , n o n -H o n d u r a s p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of H on du ras c o f fee e x p o r t e a r n i n g s »

Y earV alu e of E x p o r t s

-Ei

U . S .N a t ' l .

I n c o m ee 2

H on d urasP r o d u c t i o n

e 3

N o n - H o n d u - r a s P r o d u c

t ion

E 4 ..R2

__________ / 0/ A \ 2 ____________1 9 1 3 - 2 2 16149 6 4180 711 . 301 9 1 4 -2 3 16951 . 4599^ , 1409 9 . 351 9 1 5 - 2 4 12401 7252 1683 3 6 . 721 9 1 6 -2 5 12028 7430 170 40 . 631 9 1 7 - 2 6 12067 ... 8782 115 6 . 741 9 1 8 -2 7 9547 7092 74 14 . 751 9 1 9 -2 8 9855 7178 73 .. 44 . 741 9 2 0 -2 9 . 8319 5323 194 = 183 . 651 9 2 1 - 3 0 3888 , 1890 24 4 .197 . 541 9 2 2 -3 1 2619 1190 -1 : 252 . 551 9 2 3 - 3 2 1379 .-,108 2 355 . 341 9 2 4 - 3 3 1286 6 0 6 237 . 231 9 2 5 - 3 4 1285 26 . 52 179 . 201 9 2 6 -3 5 1600 .55 54 392 . 3 11 9 2 7 - 3 6 3787 "7 24 509 . 301 9 2 8 -3 7 1625 4 . 0 1 318 . 201 9 2 9 -3 8 2103 53 113 2 2 4 . 181 9 3 0 - 3 9 .2313 37 119 616 . 331 9 3 1 - 4 0 2298 32- 73 648 . 3319 3 2 -4 1 2420 . . 2 6 140 694 . 341 9 3 3 - 4 2 4 3 5 0 474 457 944 . 431 9 3 4 -4 3 4 3 6 5 687 •305 1877 . 661 9 3 5 - 4 4 3 633 860 293 963 . 58 ■1 9 3 6 -4 5 3616 314 714 515 . 4 31 9 3 7 - 4 6 3403 479- 546 295 . 3 91 9 3 8 -4 7 2574 4 4 7 240 . 111 9 3 9 -4 8 2508 29 2 225 . 101 9 4 0 -4 9 2575 9 . 105 .300 . 161 9 4 1 - 5 0 1902 189 3 61 . 131 9 4 2 -5 1 . 1334 . 5 5 1 .4 4 ■*' . 031 9 4 3 - 5 2 ,1231 37 8 . 6 . 031 9 4 4 -5 3 1115 68 2 8 , 071 9 4 5 - 5 4 1125 167 .3 ■57 . 201 9 4 6 - 5 5 1743 - 0 41 240 . 161 9 4 7 - 5 6 1699 -2 0 198 180 . 21

67

T A B L E XVI, (Continued)

1 9 4 8 -5 7 1769 -2 361 221 . 331 9 4 9 -5 8 1613 201 422 82 . 4 41 9 5 0 - 5 9 1592 257 430 209 . 561 9 5 1 - 6 0 723 * 10 29 . 051 9 5 2 -6 1 783 * 21 75 , 121 9 5 3 - 6 2 774 * . 6 105 „ 141 9 5 4 -6 3 758 * 12 69 . 11

Ûnited S ta te s Mational I n c o m e o m i t t e d .

17000 ̂T-Total v a r i a n c e

(% A )

10000

7500'■"■“WUl.S. N at ion a l I n c o m e

r "

5000

\* j Honduras p ro d u ct io n

2500

o n - H o n d u r a s

I960 19631950 195519451935 1940

F ig u r e 13. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a t io n a l In c o m e , H onduras p rod u ction , n o n -H on d u rasp ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of Honduras c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

S ou rce: T ab le XVI. O'00

69

M e x i c o C o f fee

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s d e c l i n e d m o r e

than 50 p e r cen t for p e r i o d s ending 1925 to 1929 w ith fu r th er m a jo r

d e c l i n e s for p e r i o d s ending 1940 to 1942 and I960 to 1961.

F o r the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1924 to 1932., a h igh p r o p o r t io n

of the to ta l v a r i a n c e i s a s s o c i a t e d w ith v a r i a n c e of n o n - M e x i c o

p ro d u ct io n . The s a m e s i tu a t io n a p p e a r e d in the p e r i o d s ending

1952 to 1955, and in the p e r i o d ending 1957. On the o th er hand,

the U ni ted S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e is a s s o c i a t e d w ith the to ta l

v a r i a n c e for the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1932 to 1939 and f r o m 1942

to 1945.

It sh ou ld be n o ted th a t it w a s p o s s i b l e to run the a n a l y s i s

w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e in c lu d e d as an "explanatory'*

v a r i a b l e for the e n t i r e p e r i o d of s tudy . Its r e l a t i o n to the to ta l

v a r i a n c e of c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s a p p e a r s to have b e e n v e r y

s m a l l in r e c e n t y e a r s , (See Table XVII and F i g u r e 14. )

N i c a r a g u a • C of fee

The t o t a l v a r i a n c e of c o f fe e export , e a r n i n g s ' g e n e r a l l y d e c l in e d

for the p e r i o d s ending 1927 to 1947. F o r p e r i o d s ending 1948 to

1950 t h e r e w a s a shairp r i s e w h ich w a s fo l l o w e d by a d e c l i n e -from

1957 to I 9 5 9 . It has b e e n r e l a t i v e l y l o w and n e a r l y c o n s t a n t for

70

T A B L E XVII. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e , M e x i c a n p ro d u ct ion , n o n - M e x i c o p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of M e x i c a n c o f f e e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s ,


E l

U . S .Nat 'L

I n c o m eE 2

M e x i c oP r o d u c t i o n

e 3

N o n - M e x i c oP r o d u c t i o n

-e 4 R 2

1 9 1 5 - 2 4 3275 ... '— 2 - (% A )2 46 - - 986 . 311 9 1 6 -2 5 3426 . 2 3 928 . 271 9 1 7 - 2 6 3129 5 11 671 . 221 9 1 8 -2 7 2787 63 33 925 . 3 71 9 1 9 - 2 8 2223 , 211 66 1350 . 7 31 9 2 0 - 2 9 1302 -5 153 706 . 651 9 2 1 - 3 0 1360 67 342 362 . 5 71 9 2 2 -3 1 1010 63 114 .497 . 671 9 2 3 - 3 2 .1240 562 44 311 . 741 9 2 4 -3 3 1480 388 37 4 . 291 9 2 5 - 3 4 1251 153 -6 12 . 121 9 2 6 - 3 5 1266 8 8 18 12 . 091 9 2 7 - 3 6 1346 ,133 . 87 . 37 . 161 9 2 8 - 3 7 1183 162 -3 2 . 131 9 2 9 - 3 8 1120 22-0 7 37 . 241 9 3 0 - 3 9 1182 302 . 2 62 . 311 9 3 1 - 4 0 1248 26 . 65 180 . 2 21 9 3 2 -4 1 • 98>7 1 -4 27 , 021 9 3 3 - 4 2 560 137 , "9 54 ■ . 3 31 9 3 4 -4 3 761 238 1 112 . 461 9 3 5 - 4 4 713 .228 4 46 . 391 9 3 6 - 4 5 663 167 -5 10 . 261 9 3 7 - 4 6 - 729 93 -9 1 0 0 . . 251 9 3 8 -4 7 607 7 7 24 . „ 061 9 3 9 - 4 8 722 19 . 3 39 . 081 9 4 0 T49 ; 370 , 32 13 4 . 131 9 4 1 - 5 0 .366 9 8 .28 .. 121 9 4 2 -5 1 380 26 11 29 . 171 9 4 3 - 5 2 611 .4 . 5 131 . 221 9 4 4 -5 3 599 _ 8 . .4 148 . 261 9 4 5 - 5 4 601 31 1 . 231 . 4 41 9 4 6 - 5 5 629 . 04 10 298 . 4 91 9 4 7 - 5 6 568 13 4 2 18 , 051 9 4 8 - 5 7 776 6 28 , 332 . 4 71 9 4 9 - 5 8 797 81 19 26 . 16

71

T A B L E XVII, (C ontinued)

1 9 5 0 -5 9 789 601 9 5 1 - 6 0 791 791 9 5 2 -6 1 242 711 9 5 3 - 6 2 185 451 9 5 4 -6 3 293 53

7 22 . 1112 8 . 13

8 .3 . 3460 12 . 64

122 ,39 . 73

3400

T ota l v a r i a n c e(% A) J-T

2000 ----------

1500

1000<Ton-Mexican, prod u ct ion

500 U . S . N at ion a l In com eM e x i c a n

productior

T9FI1955195019451925 1930 1935 1940F i g u r e 14. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U. S. N a t io n a l I n c o m e , M e x ic a n product ion , n o n - M e x i c a n

p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of M ex ica n c o f fe e ex p o r t e a r n in g s .

73

the r e m a i n d e r of the p e r i o d s tud ied . U ni ted S tates N a t io n a l I n co m e

s e e m s to be h igh ly a s s o c i a t e d with to ta l v a r i a n c e for the -per iods

ending f r o m 1926 to 1940 . The v a r i a n c e of N ic a r a g u a p rod u ct ion

i s a s s o c i a t e d w ith to ta l v a r i a n c e for the p e r i o d s ending in 1924,

1930 to 1932, 1939 to 1949 and 1958, On the other hand

non “-N icaragua p r o d u c t io n w a s a s s o c i a t e d to s o m e ex ten t w ith

to ta l v a r i a n c e for the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1923 to 1928 and 1954

to 1956. (See T ab le XVIII and F i g u r e 15, )

B r a z i l C o c o a

T ota l v a r i a n c e of B r a z i l i a n c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s w a s v e r y

high o v e r m o s t of the p e r i o d . A lthough it m o v e d up and down

during the p e r i o d s tu d ie d th e r e i s no d r a s t i c tren d to l o w e r l e v e l s

as w a s the c a s e for m o s t c o u n t r i e s for c o f f e e .

Only in p e r i o d s end ing- from . 1923 t o -1928 and 1941 to 1945

w a s U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e a s s o c i a t e d w ith a l a r g e

p r o p o r t io n of the t o t a l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a ex p o r t e a r n i n g s . The

B r a z i l p r o d u c t io n a p p e a r e d a s s o c i a t e d w ith s o m e p r o p o r t io n of

the to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a ex p o r t e a r n i n g s only in the p e r i o d s

ending 1922, 1929 and fro m . 1942 to 1958, The n o n - B r a z i l

p r o d u c t io n w a s a s s o c i a t e d w ith s o m e p r o p o r t io n of to ta l v a r i a n c e

of c o c o a ex p o r t e a r n i n g s for p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1922 to 1928

and 1961 to 1963, (See T ab le XIX and F i g u r e 16. ) F o r the p e r i o d s

74

T A B L E XVIII, V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta te s N atio n a l I n c o m e 5N ic a r a g u a n p rod u ctip n , n o n -N ic a r a g u a n p ro d u ct io n andto ta l v a r ia n c e of N ic a r a g u a n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s »

V alue of U , S . N ic a r a g u a N o n -Y ea r E x p o r t s N at ' l .

I n c o m eP r o d u c t i o n N i c a r a g u a

P r o d u c t i o nE i e 2 E 3 e 4 R 2

1 9 1 4 -2 3 5630- - - «%A >V3i................ 977 . 20

1 9 1 5 - 2 4 5523 1 967 939 . 221 9 1 6 -2 5 5842 5 209 650 , 151 9 1 7 - 2 6 5588 1639 194 708 ■ , 4 51 9 1 8 -2 7 6195 1748 270 650 , 4 31 9 1 9 - 2 8 5537 2180 65 997 . 581 9 2 0 - 2 9 3660 836 143 234 , 331 9 2 1 - 3 0 3543 1446 906 ' 77 , 681 9 2 2 -3 1 3613 1215 965 374 , 711 9 2 3 - 3 2 2086 453 736 209 , 671 9 2 4 -3 3 2478 456 190 217 . 351 9 2 5 - 3 4 2333 487 213 203 . 391 9 2 6 -3 5 1457 264 111 211 , 4 01 9 2 7 - 3 6 1167 333 76 3 , 341 9 2 8 -3 7 1449 565 343 - 23 , 6 1 .1 9 2 9 -3 8 1566 619 390 3 , 641 9 3 0 - 3 9 1710 843 570 . 1 , 831 9 3 1 - 4 0 1668 667 674 , 4 . 801 9 3 2 -4 1 1060 98 609 23 . 691 9 3 3 - 4 2 904 144 409 21 , 631 9 3 4 -4 3 935 13 776 31 . 881 9 3 5 - 4 4 904 2 834 0 , 921 9 3 6 -4 5 701 617 “ 0 2 . 881 9 3 7 - 4 6 .484 401 . 2 . 8 31 9 3 8 -4 7 266 204 3 . 781 9 3 9 -4 8 ' .369 283 3 . 781 9 4 0 -4 9 880 793 . . 05 . 9.01 9 4 1 -5 0 2899 11 111 . 041 9 4 2 -5 1 2922 27 101 . 041 9 4 3 - 5 2 2821 17 261 . 091 9 4 4 -5 3 . 28.35 28 261 . 101 9 4 5 - 5 4 2738 67 1305 . 4 91 9 4 6 -5 5 2780 45 1355 . 501 9 4 7 - 5 6 2952 19 . 1352 . 4 61 9 4 8 -5 7 2853 151 694 . 30

75

T A B L E XVIII. (C ontinued)

1 9 4 9 -5 8 2189 >< 952 1921 9 5 0 -5 9 592 21 2201 9 5 1 - 6 0 730 C 80 191 9 5 2 -6 1 714 > 57 11 9 5 3 - 6 2 718 > I 'l l1 9 5 4 -6 3 706 108 0

.. 52 . 4 1 . 13 . 08 . 15 . 15

* U n ited S ta tes N ation a l I n c o m e o m it te d .

6250

5000

otal varianc i

3750

2500

U. S. Nationa. In com e

1250 Non-\Nic aragu aneduction

aguana ction

I960 19631923 1925 19351930 1940 1945 1950 1955

F ig u r e 15. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a tio n a l In c o m e , N ica ra g u a n p roduction , n o n -N ic a r a g u a np ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of N ic a r a g u a c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

Source: T ab le XVIII.o

77

T A B L E XIX, V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e ,B r a z i l i a n p ro d u ct io n , n o n - B r a z i l ia n p ro d u ct io n and to ta lv a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a n c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Y earV alue of E x p o r t s

E l

U . S .N at ' l .

I n c o m ee 2

B r a z i lP r o d u c t i o n

E 3

N o n -B r a z i lP r o d u c t i o n

-e 4 R 2

-------( % A ) 2 --------------------1 9 1 3 - 2 2 2500 103 703 716 . 611 9 1 4 -2 3 2784 615 ■ 144 1055 . 651 9 1 5 - 2 4 2614 385 250 1023 . 631 9 1 6 -2 5 2602 663 60 1213 . 74.1 9 1 7 - 2 6 2615 973 150 1212 . 891918927 2652 962 ' 114 1145 . 841 9 1 9 - 2 8 1959 924 134 574 . 831 9 2 0 - 2 9 1519 285 ’ 493 70 561 9 2 1 - 3 0 981 ,148 102 59 . 311 9 22-31 1063 355 137 211 . 661 9 2 3 - 3 2 818 61 2 9 2 146 . 611 9 2 4 -3 3 752 89 200 152 . 591 9 2 5 - 3 4 917 325 175 120 . 681 9 2 6 - 3 5 918 117 229 13 . 391927-36.. . , 9 7 9 208 344 59 . 621 9 2 8 - 3 7 . 927 167 359 141 . 721 9 2 9 - 3 8 1091 271 74 12 . 331 9 3 0 -3 9 1030 220 55 12 . 281 9 3 1 - 4 0 916 128 60 13 . 211 9 3 2 -4 1 1078 730 . 16 30 . 741 9 3 3 - 4 2 1414 584 250 . 4 . 591 9 3 4 -4 3 1403 503 289 7 22 . 581 9 3 5 - 4 4 1388 446 229 40 . 521 9 3 6 -4 5 1136 420 212 10 . 571 9 3 7 - 4 6 2338 . 01 169 49 . 091 9 3 8 -4 7 2036 582 1 . 2 91 9 3 9 -4 8 2124 604 5 . 291 9 4 0 - 4 9 2081 4 74 147 . 301 9 4 1 - 5 0 2060 529 111 . 311 9 4 2 -5 1 1716 387 205 . 341 9 4 3 - 5 2 2083 536 37 271 9 4 4 - 5 3 2222 394 5 , 181 9 4 5 - 5 4 2302 673 5 . 291 9 4 6 -5 5 1698 4 00 ' 11 . 241 9 4 7 - 5 6 1807 277 65 . 19

.78

T A B L E XIX. (C ontinued)

\

1 9 4 8 -5 7 1781 279 79 . 201 9 4 9 -5 8 1817 327 65 . 221 9 5 0 -5 9 1830 59 . 161 . 121 9 5 1 -6 0 1840 . 26 122 : os1 9 5 2 -6 1 1708 51 651 . 411 9 5 3 - 6 2 1813 27 568 . 331 9 5 4 -6 3 1274 . 175 236 • 32

'"'United S ta te s N a tio n a l In c o m e o m it te d .

t

2800

Tot v a r ia n c e

2000

1500

I'1000ation;D.

co

N o n - B r a z i l p ro d u ct io n500

r a z i l produ :t ion

I960 19631950 19551940 194519351922 1925 1930F ig u r e 16. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U .S . N a tio n a l In c o m e , B r a z i l ia n prod u ction , n o n -B r a z i l ia n

p rod u ction and to ta l v a r ia n c e of B r a z i l ia n c o c o a ex p o r t e a r n in g s .Source: T a b le XIX.

xO

ending f r o m 1947 to 1963 U ni ted S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e w a s o m it t e d

f r o m th is a n a l y s i s .

D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l ic C o co a

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s r e m a i n e d a l m o s t

without change o v e r the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1922 to 1945 , S ince

th is p e r i o d to the p e r i o d ending in; 1955 t h e r e w a s a s u b s t a n t ia l

i n c r e a s e and then a . d e c l i n e to i t s e a r l i e r l e v e l for the p e r i o d s

ending 1958 to 1963, A la r g e p r o p o r t io n of t o ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a

e x p o r t e a r n i n g s w a s a s s o c i a t e d w ith D o m in ic a n R e p u b l ic p ro d u ct io n

for the p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1928 to 1935, and 1947 to 1955, Only

for the p e r i o d s ending f r o m . 1937 to 1945 and 1956 to 1963 a s m a l l

p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e -was a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S ta tes

N a t io n a l I n c o m e , Non - Do m i n i c an R e publ i c p ro d u ct io n w a s

a s s o c i a t e d w ith a s m a l l p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e for p e r i o d s

ending 1922' to 1928 and 1955 to 1963, (See T a b le XX and F i g u r e

1 7 . )

E c u a d o r C o c o a

T o ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s w a s v e r y h igh for

p e r i o d s f r o m 1944 to 1951 and d e c l i n e d to 1963,

' The E c u a d o r p ro d u ct io n w as the v a r i a b l e w hich a p p e a r e d

a s s o c i a t e d w ith a= l a r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e for p e r i o d s

81

T A B L E XXo V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith U ni ted S tates N at ional I n c o m e , D o m i n i c a n R ep u b l ic p rod u ct ion , n o n - D o m i n i c a n R ep ub l ic p r o d u c t io n and to ta l v a r i a n c e of D o m in ic a n R ep ub l ic c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s ,


E ,

U. S.N at ' l .

I n c o m ee 2

D o m i n i c a n N o n - D o m i n i c a n R e p u b l ic R e p u b l ic P r o d u c t i o n P r o d u c t i o n

e 3 e 4 R 2

------------ ( % A ) 2 -----------------1 9 1 3 -2 2 839 8 324 . 391 9 1 4 -2 3 868 * 11 321 . 381 9 1 5 - 2 4 752 .* . 0 8 370 . 4 91 9 1 6 -2 5 915 * . 02 356 . 3 91 9 1 7 - 2 6 823 ' 13 8 337 . 4 31 9 1 8 -2 7 1275 22 192 .380 . 4 71 9 1 9 -2 8 1317 ' . 4 354 394 . 5 71 9 2 0 - 2 9 1113 17 331 . 175 . 4 71 9 2 1 - 3 0 1078 7 443 66 . 471 9 2 2 -3 1 1083 21 418 .4 . 4 11 9 2 3 - 3 2 1194 167 49Q 122 . 651 9 2 4 -3 3 1147 . 161 463 84 . 611 9 2 5 - 3 4 1157 181 539 52 . 671 9 2 6 -3 5 1181 35 760 24 . 691 9 2 7 - 3 6 574 190 236 . 2 . 741 9 2 8 - 3 7 602 298 161 7 . 771 9 2 9 -3 8 959 492 7 15 . 531 9 3 0 - 3 9 9 2 0 422 10 7 . 4 81 9 3 1 - 4 0 954 495 . . 02 1 . 521 9 3 2 -4 1 760 217 . 11 2 . 301 9 3 3 - 4 2 1008 385 28 36 . 4 51 9 3 4 -4 3 969 288 1 19 . 3 11 9 3 5 - 4 4 977 288 «* 0 22 . 321 9 3 6 -4 5 1176 476 5 37 . 4 31 9 3 7 - 4 6 3393 45 . 0 . 011 9 3 8 -4 7 3136 592 58 . 211 9 3 9 -4 8 3078 597 . 11 . 2 01 9 4 0 -4 9 4 0 1 4 1435 172 . 4 0 .1 9 4 1 - 5 0 4 2 1 4 1718 124 . 4 41 9 4 2 -5 1 4099 1677 78 . 431 9 4 3 - 5 2 4081 2131 . 7 . 5 21 9 4 4 -5 3 3967 1669 198 . 4 71 9 4 5 -5 4 3462 872 143 . 3 11 9 4 6 - 5 5 1974 371 336 . 36

82

T A B L E X X . (C ontinued)

1 9 4 7 - 5 6 . 1814 404 111 387 . 5019 4 8 -5 7 1913 • 546 69 437 . 551 9 4 9 -5 8 1380 373 3 188 . 4 11 9 5 0 -5 9 1116 226 10 331 . 511 9 5 1 - 6 0 1102 196 5 315 . 471 9 5 2 -6 1 1257 240 0 618 . 681 9 5 3 - 6 2 1245 247 5 605 . 691954^63 944 188 114 416 . 76

* U n ited S ta te s N ational In c o m e o m it te d .

5000

( %A )2

3750

2500

1250

i o ta l v a r ia n

m in ic a n Rep plroductlpn

ab lic

- D o m in ica n ̂ —— ' R ^ u b H 'c -p T fo d u C 'tio n U. S. N ati Dnal / in com e

° 1922 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 I960 1963

F ig u r e 17. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U. S. N ation a l In c o m e , D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic p rod u ction , n on - D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of D o m in ic a n R ep ub lic c o c o a ex p o rt e a r n in g s .

Source: T ab le XX.

84

ending 1925 to 1942 and 1950 to 1951. The to ta l v a r i a n c e a p p e a r e d

to be l i t t l e a f f e c t e d by n o n - E c u a d o r p ro d u ct io n . It w a s n e c e s s a r y

to o m i t U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e for m o s t of the p e r i o d s s tud ied

and for t h o s e in w h ich it w a s in c lu d e d i t s e f f e c t s a p p e a r e d to be

n e g l i g i b l e . (See T a b le XXI and F i g u r e 18, )

P a n a m a C o c o a

T o ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n i n g s has d r a m a t i c ch a n g es

o v e r the p e r i o d under s tudy , 1915-1963, . With the e x c e p t i o n of the

p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1 9 1 5 - 2 4 to 1 9 2 2 - 3 1 , 1 9 3 2 -4 1 to 1 9 3 6 - 4 5 and

1 9 5 4 -6 3 it has b een v e r y high.

The only v a r i a b l e w h i c h i s a s s o c i a t e d with a= l a r g e p r o p o r t io n

of the to ta l v a r i a n c e i s the P a n a m a p rod u ct ion , e s p e c i a l l y in the

p e r i o d s ending f r o m 1932 to 1940 and 1945 to 1962. U ni ted S ta tes

N a t io n a l I n c o m e a p p e a r s to have b e e n an u n im p o rta n t c a u s e of the

v a r i a n c e of e x p o r t e a r n i n g s * The n o n - P a n a m a p ro d u c t io n a l s o

a p p e a r s a s s o c i a t e d to s o m e ex ten t w ith to ta l v a r i a n c e of c o c o a

e x p o r t e a r n i n g s in s o m e of th e T a t e r p e r i o d s . (See T a b le XXII and

F i g u r e 1 9 , )

C o s t a . R i c a B an an as

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s i n c r e a s e d

s u b s t a n t ia l l y for p e r i o d s ending from . 1957 to 1963, The only

85

T A B L E X X I„ V a r ia n c e as s o c ia te d w ith U nited S ta tes N a tio n a l Incom e?E cu a d o r p ro d u ct io n , n o n -E c u a d o r p r o d u c t io n and to ta lv a r ia n c e of EcU ador c o c o a export, e a r n i n g s »

V alue of U . S . E c u a d o r N o n -Y ea r E x p o r t s N at ' l .

I n c o m eP r o d u c t i o n E c u a d o r

P r o d u c t i o nE l ;E2 • e 3 E 4, R'

_______ lot. / \ ____________1096

-------- - - 1 0 t-* )1 9 1 3 - 2 2 . 4 59 . 051 9 1 4 -2 3 1375 35 419 . 331 9 1 5 - 2 4 1753 176 ,416 , 3419 1 6 -2 5 1896 484 320 . 4 21 9 1 7 - 2 6 1882 20 673 360 . 561 9 1 8 -2 7 2103 32 830 432 . 611 9 1 9 - 2 8 1865 633 461 . 591 9 2 0 - 2 9 2282 979 ;346 . 581 9 2 1 - 3 0 2314 1657 2 . 721 9 2 2 -3 1 2478 1724 3 . 7.01 9 2 3 - 3 2 2089 41 1390 7 . 691 9 2 4 -3 3 1811 14 1207 . 8 . 671 9 2 5 - 3 4 2505 19 1940 4 . 781 9 2 6 -3 5 2380 .36 1726 . 37 . 741 9 2 7 - 3 6 2212 . 86 1483 186 . 751 9 2 8 - 3 7 2212 10 1347 482 . 8 31 9 2 9 -3 8 1674 47 932 305 . 771 9 3 0 -3 9 1375 194 635 248 . 781 9 3 1 - 4 0 1 9 1 0 0 1461 3 . 771932 -4 1 2567 1 2144 6 . 841 9 3 3 - 4 2 2415 . 0 2033 12 . 851 9 3 4 -4 3 2852 6 305 127 . 151 9 3 5 - 4 4 4938 .4 8 . 1 . 001 9 3 6 -4 5 4951 60 .11 . 011 9 3 7 - 4 6 5008 57 20 . 011 9 3 8 -4 7 5381 - . 2 140 . 021 9 3 9 -4 8 5313 7 .369 . 071 9 4 0 -4 9 4430 534 374 . 2 01 9 4 1 - 5 0 4 4 9 4 2998 20 . 621 9 4 2 -5 1 4497 3474 2 . 771 9 4 3 - 5 2 2490 550 62 . 241 9 4 4 -5 3 1362 90 . 02 . 061 9 4 5 - 5 4 1809 2 164 . 091 9 4 6 -5 5 2523 98 416 . 2 01 9 4 7 - 5 6 2125 259 651 . 4 3

86

T A B L E X X L (C ontinued)

1 9 4 8 -5 7 2123 200 605 . 381 9 4 9 -5 8 1869 228 231 . 241 9 5 0 -5 9 1270 211 214 , 3 31 9 5 1 - 6 0 1258 334 294 . 501 9 5 2 -6 1 1380 384 ,377 . , 551 9 5 3 - 6 2 1374 443 373 , 5 91 9 5 4 -6 3 • 612 40 58 . 16

Û nited S ta te s N a t io n a l I n c o m e o m it te d .

6250

5000

T o ta l v a r ia n c e

3750

t*-\Ecuado r p rod u ction2500

1250

o n -E c u a d o ipro d u ct io n

/ X U, S. Tâtior a l Incom e

1922 I960 1963195519501945194019351930F ig u r e 18. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U . S . N a t io n a l In c o m e , E cu a d o r p rod u ction , n o n -E c u a d o r p r o d u c

tion , and to ta l v a r ia n c e of E cu a d o r c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s .Source: T ab le XXI.

88

T A B L E XXII. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U n ited S ta tes N ational I n c o m e 3P a n a m a p ro d u ct io n , n o n -P a n a m a p ro d u ct io n , and to ta lv a r ia n c e of P a n a m a c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s a

V a lu e of — u t s :— P a n a m a N o n -Y ea r C o c o a Nat 'L P r o d u c t i o n P a n a m a

E x p o r t s I n c o m e P r o d u c t i o n o-Ei e 2 .e 3 e 4 R

- - - ( % A ) 2 -------- - - -1 9 1 5 - 2 4 2894 , 8 .1731 . 631 . 821 9 1 6 -2 5 2433 14 1087 748 . 761 9 1 7 - 2 6 3121 73 1105 . 440 . 521 9 1 8 -2 7 2631 72 536 .448 . 401 9 1 9 -2 8 1986 104 217 88 , 211 9 2 0 -2 9 2212 . 7 503 78 . 261 9 2 1 - 3 0 1789 . 8 . 208 . 6 . 121 9 2 2 -3 1 1824 58 103 133 . 161 9 2 3 - 3 2 6103 898 3820 64 . 781 9 2 4 -3 3 10114 390 8349 . 2 . 861 9 2 5 - 3 4 9935 537 8310 . 07 . 8 91 9 2 6 - 3 5 8644 81 8180 33 . 961 9 2 7 - 3 6 8603 225 8124 5 . 971 9 2 8 - 3 7 9186 411 8295 23 . 951 9 2 9 -3 8 11132 790 8954 . 1 7 . 881 9 3 0 -3 9 11075 727 8839 6 . 861 9 3 1 - 4 0 11064 735 8745 20 . 861 9 3 2 -4 1 6599 691 .5247 138 . 921 9 3 3 - 4 2 2955 1153 1287 77 . 851 9 3 4 -4 3 3031 1085 1206 33 . 771 9 3 5 - 4 4 3377 1136 1580 - 49 . 791 9 3 6 - 4 5 5222 .1605 2726 99 . 841 9 3 7 - 4 6 10183 193 8620 306 . 891 9 3 8 -4 7 . 11748 9568 549 . 861 9 3 9 -4 8 18466 < 9209 1200 . 561 9 4 0 -4 9 22088 >C 9354 4 70 . 441 9 4 1 - 5 0 21923 >C 9056 521 . 4 41 9 4 2 -5 1 22111 >c 9318 601 . 4 51 9 4 3 - 5 2 26222 c 10355 2548 . 4 91 9 4 4 -5 3 25881 5c 10546 3108 . 531 9 4 5 - 5 4 31274 > 8573 1971 . 3 41 9 4 6 -5 5 28626 5 6909 1236 . 281 9 4 7 - 5 6 25607 ) 3642 2768 . 251 9 4 8 -5 7 19013 : 5718 . 1856 ; 4 01 9 4 9 -5 8 . 15879 >:c 5389 43 . 3 4

89

T A B L E XXII . (Continued)

1950*59 15997 5840 6 . 3 61 9 5 1 -6 0 15777 6736 4 . 431 9 5 2 -6 1 11429 3312 .1565 . 431 9 5 3 - 6 2 11439 3867 . 1306 . 4 51 9 5 4 -6 3 1266 . 177 ■ 177 . 28

* Uni ted S ta te s N at ional I n c o m e o m it t e d .

30000

(% A)

20000

Tota lv a r i a n c e

15000

10000an a m a procuctio:

5000

N at ion a l In< om e\

192-3— 1925 1930---------- T933 T940F i g u r e 19. V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U . S . N at ion a l I n c o m e , P a n a m a p roduct ion , n o n - P a n a m a

I960 196319551945 1950p rod u ction

p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of P a n a m a c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s .P a n a m aN at ion a l Inco m e

S ou rce: T ab le XXII.

91

v a r i a b l e w h ich a p p e a r e d to be a s s o c i a t e d w ith a l a r g e p r o p o r t io n of

to ta l v a r i a n c e for the w ho le p e r i o d 1 9 4 8 - 6 3 i s the C o s t a R ic a n

prod u ct ion . H o w e v e r 5 the n o n - C o s t a R ic a n p ro d u ct io n a p p e a r e d

a s s o c i a t e d w ith a s m a l l p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e for the p e r i o d

ending in 1962 and 1963, (See T ab le XXIII and F i g u r e 20, )

E c u a d o r B a n a n a s

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s of E c u a d o r

d e c l i n e d about 50 p er c e n t for p e r i o d s ending from. I960 to 1961.

E c u a d o r product ion■ne x p l a i n s n n e a r l y a l l of the to ta l var ian c e o v e r

the p e r i o d under s tudy ( 1 9 4 8 - 6 3 ) . The i n c o m e and f o r e i g n p ro d u ct io n

v a r i a b l e s a pp ear to be u n im p o r ta n t s o u r c e s of i n s t a b i l i t y . (See

T a b le XXIV and F i g u r e 21. )

G u a te m a l a B an an as

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of banana e x p o r t e a r n in g s for th i s cou n try

d e c l i n e d s u b s t a n t ia l l y o v e r the p e r i o d under s t u d y s 1 9 4 7 - 6 3 , A g a in

. in th is c a s e the c o u n try p r o d u ct io n a p p e a r e d a s s o c i a t e d with a l a r g e

p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e . H o w e v e r , n o n - G u a t e m a l a p r o d u c

t ion a p p e a r e d a s s o c i a t e d , t o s o m e e x te n t w ith to ta l v a r i a n c e for the

w h ole p e r i o d . On.the o ther hand U ni ted S ta tes N a t io n a l I n c o m e a l s o

a p p e a r e d to be a s s o c i a t e d to s o m e e x te n t for the p e r i o d ending f r o m

1959 to 1961 (See T a b le XXV and F i g u r e 22. )

T A B L E XXIIIo V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta te s N a tio n a l In c o m e ,. C o sta .R ican p ro d u ct io n , n o n -C o s ta .R ican p ro d u ct io n

and to ta l v a r ia n c e of C o s ta R ic a n banana e x p o r t earn ings*

. T o ta l i U„ S. C o s ta R i c a N o n - C o s t aY e a r V a r i a n c e N a t 8L P r o d u c t i o n R i c a Pror-

In c o m e d uct ionE l E z e 3 e 4 R 2

1 9 4 8 -5 7 226------ - (% A ) 2

. -0 192 , 6 . 851 9 4 9 - 5 8 266 8 .121 • 3 . 491 9 5 0 - 5 9 342 . 1 221 1 . 651 9 5 1 - 6 0 351 2 220 4 . 641 9 5 2 -6 1 325 , - 0 168 16 . 561 9 5 3 - 6 2 449 . 2 264 54 . 711 9 5 4 -6 3 429 4 255 56 . 73

500

(%

400

300

200

100

° 1957 1958 I960 1962 1963F i g u r e 20. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U . S . N at ion a l

I n c o m e , C o s ta R ic a p ro d uct ion , n o n - C o sta R ic a p rod u ct ion and to ta l v a r i a n c e of C o s ta R ic a banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Source: Table XXIII.

T ota la n a n c e

/ C o s t a R ice / . . ./ pr j d u c l i u i i

1957 1958 I960 1962 1963

500

(% A)

400

Total v a r i a n c e

300lorc t ion

E c u aprodu

200

100

U. S. N at iona l I r c o m e ^ N o n - E c u a d o r pro

T 757T W '5’ :r'lTffCTF i g u r e 21. V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U . S .

N a t io n a l I n c o m e , E cu ad or p r o d u c t ion , n o n - E c u a d o r prod uct ion and to ta l v a r i a n c e of Ecuador banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Sou rce: T ab le XXIV.xOoo

94

T A B L E XXIV. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta tes N ation a l I n c o m e ,E cu a d o r p ro d u ct io n , N o n -E c u a d o r p ro d u ct io n andto ta l v a r ia n c e of E cu a d o r banana e x p o r t e a r n in g s .


E l

U. S.N at ion a l

I n c o m e= 2

E cu a d o rP r o d u c t i o n

e 3

N o n - E c u a d o r P r o d u c t i o n

e 4 R 2

1 9 4 8 -5 7 416. . . . . . 1 % A , 2 ...........

-2 . 831 9 4 9 -5 8 365 1 302 2 . 831 9 5 0 -5 9 365 6 322 2 . 911 9 5 1 - 6 0 365 . 7 330 5 . 921952-61 160 2 129 . 2 . 831 9 5 3 -6 2 141 4 109 . 1 . 801 9 5 4 -6 3 134 22 99 . 1 . 91

95

T A B L E X X V . V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U nited S ta tes N a tio n a l In c o m e ,G u a te m a la p ro d u ct io n , n o n -G u a te m a la p ro d u ct io n andto ta l v a r ia n c e of G u a te m a la banana e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

V alue of U . S . G u a te m a la N o n -G u a te m a laY ear E x p o r ts N a t ' l . P r o d u c t io n P r o d u c t io n

In co m e 2E i E2 E3 E4 R

(% A )21 9 4 8 -5 7 954 71 597 142 . 851 9 4 9 -5 8 814 53 497 126 . 831 9 5 0 -5 9 837 50 527 114 . 821 9 5 1 -6 0 741 110 376 109 . 801 952-61 759 74 321 199 . 781 9 5 3 -6 2 273 3 61 64 . 471 9 5 4 -6 3 341 5 110 67 . 53

1000

(% A)800

600Guate mala

Xjproduct io

400

200 N o n -G u a :em ala- — ___p ro d u ct i

U . S . Kationa^/^ IncoTrre--------

1962 1963I9601957 1958F i g u r e 22. V a r i a n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U. S. N at iona l

I n c o m e , G u a te m a la prod u ct ion , n on - G u a te m a l a p rod u ct ion and tota l v a r i a n c e of G u a te m a la banana ex p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Source: T ab le XXV.

1000

( % A ) 2

800

600

400

200

0

F i g u r e 23. V a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d with U. S.N at ion a l I n c o m e , Honduras p roduct ion , n o n -H on du ras p rod uct ion and tota l v a r ia n c e of Honduras banana export e a r n i n g s .

Source: Table XXVI.

T otal

H ondurasp rod u ct ion

N on-H on du ras prod u ct ionU . S . N at ion a l

^ In com e

1957 1958 I960 1962 1963

97

H onduras B a n a n a s

The to ta l v a r i a n c e of banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s r e m a i n e d a l m o s t

w ithout change for the p e r i o d ending f r o m 1 9 4 7 -5 7 ,

The H on d u ras p ro d u c t io n -is the v a r i a b l e w h ic h i s a s s o c i a t e d

w ith a ;la r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e for the p e r i o d under

study, 1 9 4 8 - 6 3 . (See T a b le /X X V I and F i g u r e 2 3 . )

P a n a m a B a n a n a s

D ur ing the p e r i o d s e n d in g . f r o m 1 9 5 7 - 5 9 the to ta l v a r i a n c e

of e x p o r t e a r n i n g s a p p e a r e d without s u b s t a n t ia l ch an ge , i t

i n c r e a s e d in T 9 6 0 and th en d e c l in e d u nt i l 1963,

A g a in - in , this c a s e the c o u n try p r o d u c t io n i s the v a r i a b l e

w h ic h i s a s s o c i a t e d w ith a l a r g e p r o p o r t io n of the to ta l v a r i a n c e

o v e r the p e r i o d under s tudy , 1 9 4 8 - 6 3 . U ni ted S ta te s N a t io n a l

I n c o m e w a s o m i t t e d for the e n t ir e p e r i o d s tu d ied for the p r e v i o u s l y

d i s c u s s e d r e a s o n s , (See T ab le -XXVII and F i g u r e 24, )

98

T A B L E XXVIo V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith U n i te d .S ta te s N a t io n a l Incom e.,H ond uras p ro d u ct io n , n o n -H o n d u r a s p ro d u ct io n andto ta l v a r ia n c e of H on d u ras banana e x p o r t e a r n i n g s e

Y ea rValue of E x p o r t s

E i

U. S, •Nat'L I n c o m e

E 2

H on d u rasP r o d u c t i o n

E 3

N o n -H o n d u r a sP r o d u c t i o n

E 4 R 2

1 9 4 8 -5 7 689---------- (% 4 ) 2 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

. 7 565 32 . 8 8

1 9 4 9 -5 8 709 4 614 15 . 8 91950.-59 732 , 2 650 14 . 911 9 5 1 - 6 0 733 . 07 633 . 8 . 8 6

1 9 5 2 -6 1 784 . 1 677 3 . 871 9 5 3 - 6 2 786 1 2 695 . 6 . 901954963 645 5 557 1 . 87

. 9 9

T A B L E X XV II. V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith P a n a m a p ro d u ctio n ,n o n -P a n a m a p ro d u ctio n and to ta l v a r ia n c e o fP a n a m a banana, e x p o r t e a r n in g s ,

Y earV alu e of E x p o r ts

E 1

P a n a m aP r o d u c t io n

e 2

N o n -P a n a m a P r o d u c t io n

E 3 -R 2

1 9 4 8 -5 7 361- - - (% A )2 -

103 .8 5 . 291 9 4 9 -5 8 365 126 2 . 351 9 5 0 -5 9 361 ,1.27 2 . 361 9 5 1 -6 0 454 . 187 1 . 4 2 .1 9 5 2 -6 1 374 . 133 2 . 361 9 5 3 -6 2 320 i o | 12 . 351 9 5 4 -6 3 234 . 146 13 . 68

U n ited S ta te s n a tio n a l in c o m e o m itte d .

500

(% A ) 2

400 -

300

200

100

0

F ig u r e 24.

Source:

T ota l v a r ia n c e

P a n a m a \ p ro d u ct io n

N o n -P a n a m a j iro d u ct io r

1962 1963I9601957 1958V a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith P a n a m a p rod u ctio n o n -P a n a m a p ro d u ct io n and to ta l v a r ia n c e of P a n a m a banana ex p o r t e a r n in g s .T ab le XXVII.

C H A P T E R IV

T E ST O F H Y P O T H E SE S R EG A RD ING SO U RC ES OF

E X P O R T EARNING S IN ST A B IL IT Y

It i s n e c e s s a r y to t e s t the h y p o th e s e s s ta te d in C hapter III

in o r d e r to e s t a b l i s h , a s far as p o s s i b l e , the s o u r c e s of

in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s b e fo r e e v a lu a t in g .e f f ic ie n c y of the

v a r io u s p r o g r a m s for s p e c i f i c s itu ation s*

T e s t o f the H y p o th e s e s

The r e s u l t s ob ta in ed in C hapter III sh o w the a s s o c ia t io n

am on g to ta l v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n in g s and U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l

I n c o m e , o th er -c o u n tr y p r o d u c t io n and in d iv id u a l co u n try p ro d u ct io n

for d i f fe r e n t end ing p e r io d s and c o u n tr ie s for c o f fe e , c o c o a , and

b a n a n a s , '

The e x te n t to w h ich e a c h of the h y p o th e s e s i s s u p p o r ted in th is

a n a ly s i s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f irst* The r e m a in d e r of the ch ap ter

w il l e v a lu a te B r a z i l !s p a s t e f fo r ts to s t a b i l i z e the m a r k e t for

c o ffe e and in t e r r e la t io n s o f e x p o r t e a r n in g s am ong the th r e e

c o m m o d it ie s for in d iv id u a l c o u n t r i e s ,

F ig u r e 30 sh o w s the ten y e a r p e r io d s fo r w h ich the h y p o th e s e s

that U n ited S ta tes N a t io n a l In c o m e i s an im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of

101

102

in s ta b i l i t y of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s i s supported,, G e n e r a l ly for

p e r io d s end ing b e tw e e n 1925 and 1930 the U n ited S ta tes N a tio n a l

In c o m e v a r ia b le i s m o s t c o n s i s t e n t ly supported,,. The h y p o t h e s i s . i s

g e n e r a l ly not su p p o r te d for p e r io d s e n d in g .a f te r 1946. F o r c o c o a

th is h y p o th e s i s i s g e n e r a l ly su p p o r ted m o r e for in te r m e d ia te

p e r io d s end in g .1935 to 1945 (F ig u r e 31?), T ab le X XX in d ic a te s t h i s

h y p o th e s i s i s not su p p o r ted in the c a s e of bananas for any of the

t im e p e r io d s s tu d ied .

The h y p o th e s i s ’ that the p ro d u ct io n of o th er c o u n tr ie s - i s an

im p o r ta n t s o u r c e of in s ta b i l i t y of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s i s g e n e r a l ly

su p p o r ted for in t e r m e d ia te and la t e r p e r io d s . The s p e c i f i c p e r io d s

in w h ich the h y p o th e s i s i s c o n s i s t e n t ly su p p o r te d i s sh ow n in F ig u r e

32. F o r c o c o a the. h y p o th e s i s is su p p o r te d g e n e r a l ly m o r e in e a r ly

and la te r y e a r s for a l l c o u n tr ie s under s tudy e x c e p t P a n a m a ( s e e

F ig u r e 33). T a b le X X X in d ic a te s that the h y p o th e s i s i s not su p p o r ted

in the c a s e o f ban anas fo r any of the t im e p e r io d s s tu d ie d . The

h y p o th e s i s that the c o u n tr y 9s ow n p ro d u ct io n i s a m a jo r s o u r c e of

e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y i s su p p o r ted in s o m e c o u n tr ie s for m o s t t im e

p e r io d s s tu d ie d for co f fe e ; the su p p o rt i s m o r e c o m m o n .fo r i n t e r

m e d ia te and la te r p e r io d s (F ig u r e 34 ) . T ab le XXX in d ic a te s that the

h y p o th e s i s i s s t r o n g ly su p p o r ted for bananas for a l l c o u n tr ie s in a l l

t im e p e r io d s s tu d ied .

103

F ig u r e 35 sh o w s that for c o c o a the h y p o t h e s i s . i s s t r o n g ly

su p p o r ted for P a n a m a .a n d E cu a d o r for a lm o s t the w h o le p e r io d

under s tud y . F o r B r a z i l and D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic the h y p o th e s is i s

su p p o r ted for s h o r te r p e r io d s .

R e la t iv e I m p o r ta n c e o f D em an d and Supply A s S o u r c e s of I n s ta b i l i ty of E x p o r t E a r n in g s

The e a r l i e r d i s c u s s io n ,o f the two m a jo r a p p r o a c h e s to c o m

m o d ity s t a b i l i z a t io n - - b u f f e r s to c k s and buffer -funds - - r e v e a l e d that

th e ir r e la t iv e e f f ic a c y i s h ig h ly d ep en d en t upon w h e th e r the

in s ta b i l i t y a r i s e s f r o m a .f lu c tu a t in g d em a n d or f lu c tu a t in g su p p ly

and the e l a s t i c i t y of d em a n d . T a b le s X X V III5 XXIX and XXX g iv e

ai% a p p r a is a l of the r e la t iv e im p o r ta n c e o f su p p ly and d em an d

f lu c tu a t io n s as s o u r c e s of e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y for c o f f e e , c o c o a

and b a n a n a s „ In t h e s e , t a b l e s , a D d e n o te s that the to ta l v a r ia n c e

a s s o c i a t e d w ith d em an d v a r i a b l e s , a s r e p r e s e n t e d by U nited S ta tes

Mational In c o m e and the p ro d u ct io n of o th er c o u n tr ie s , i s la r g e r thanv

the v a r ia n c e a s s o c i a t e d w ith f lu c tu a t io n s of supp ly r e p r e s e n t e d by

the c o u n tr y 's own p ro d u ct io n . The S in d ic a te s that for the in d ic a te d

t im e p e r io d and co u n try that the su p p ly v a r ia b le w a s a s s o c i a t e d

w ith m o r e v a r ia n c e o f c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s than the d em an d

v a r i a b l e s . W hen l e s s than 25 p er cen t of the to ta l v a r ia n c e w as

a s s o c i a t e d w ith the c o m b in e d su p p ly and d em an d v a r i a b l e s , the

104

T A B L E X X V III. R e la t iv e im p o r ta n c e of d e m a n d a n d su p p ly a s s o u r c e o f in s ta b i l i ty o f c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

Y e a r sB r a z i l C o lo m b ia G u a te m a la E l

S a lv a d o rM e x ic o C o s ta

R ic aE c u a d o r D o m in ic a n

R e p u b licN ic a ra g u a H a it i H o n d u ra s

1 9 1 3 -2 2 S S * * S S1 9 1 4 -2 3 D3 S — — - - * — — — ❖ S - - - - D11 9 1 5 -2 4 D3 S - « - - D2 - - ❖ — — S - - - - D11 9 1 6 -2 5 D3 S - - --- D2 — — * - - D2 — — — - D11 9 1 7 -2 6 D3 S D1 D1 D2 - — * D1 D2 D1 D1 D11 9 1 8 -2 7 D3 S D1 S D2 — *“ D1 D2 D1 D1 D11 9 1 9 -2 8 D1 D2 D1 S D2 --- * D1 D2 D1 D1 D11 9 2 0 -2 9 D1 — — S D2 D2 - — ❖ D1 - - D1 D3 D11 9 2 1 -3 0 D1 D1 — D2 D2 --- * — — — D1 D2 D11 9 2 2 -3 1 D1 D1 D1 S ' D2 — - ❖ — — S D1 D2 D11 9 2 3 -3 2 D 4 D1 D1 S D1 - - - - D1 S D2 D21 9 2 4 -3 3 s D1 D1 S D1 — — ❖ D2 S D1 — - - -1 9 2 5 -3 4 S D1 D1 S — — S D2 D2 D1 - — — -1 9 2 6 -3 5 S - - D2 S — S D2 D2 D1 S D21 9 2 7 -3 6 S S D1 S — s ❖ D2 - — D1 S D21 9 2 8 -3 7 D3 D1 D1 S — - — * D2 — - D1 s - -1 9 2 9 -3 8 D4. D1 D1 S — — ❖ D2 - - D1 s — -1 9 3 0 -3 9 D3 • S D1 S D1 - - D2 D1 s D21931-40, - - S S S D2 --- D2 S S s D21 9 3 2 -4 1 - - S S S - - - - D2 — S s D21 9 3 3 -4 2 D1 S D3 D2 D1 — D2 — S s D21 9 3 4 -4 3 D1 D2 D3 D 1 D1 - - D1 D1 S s D21 9 3 5 -4 4 D1 - - - - D1 D1 - - D 1 D1 S s D21 9 3 6 -4 5 D4 — — - - D2 D 1 s D1 D2 S - s D21 9 3 7 -4 6 S * D2 — — D2 D2 - - D1 S S * s D11 9 3 8 -4 7 S * D2 - - D2 — - D2 ❖ S * S * s * - -1 9 3 9 -4 8 S * D2 - — D2 - - — * - - D2 * S * s * - -1 9 4 0 -4 9 - - * D2 --- D2 S - - D2 * S *1 9 4 1 -5 0 - - * D2 - — D2 — - - - * - - D2 * - - * - —19 4 2 -5 1 __ * D2 — — >!< D2 s D1 D2 * - - * - -1 9 4 3 -5 2 S * — — - — — — s * D1 D2 * ---t\: s * — -1 9 4 4 -5 3 s * D2 s * — - D2 — — D1 D2 * — — - - *1 9 4 5 -5 4 D3 * s * D2 ‘ — * D1 D2 ❖ - -1 9 4 6 -5 5 D3 #' - - s * * D2 s S D2 * s * - -1 9 4 7 -5 6 D3 *: s * — s S * D 2 * s * - - .1 9 4 8 -5 7 D3 - - * D2 * D2 s s D2 * D2 s * S1 9 4 9 -5 8 D3 *: - - * D2 * - - - - S * S •# s * D11 9 5 0 -5 9 __ s * D2 * --- - — S * - - * D2 * s * S1 9 5 1 -6 0 __ * >!' D2 * — — D2 S * S * - - * s ,■*195 2 -6 1 - -■ - - * - - :!< D2 * D1 D2 S * D2 * - - -N s *1 9 5 3 -6 2 - - * s * D2 * S - - .S * D2 * - - !!j s *1 9 5 4 -6 3 - - * , — — s * S * S D2 * S * D2 * — O s *

A v e r a g e R 2 .4 7 .4 0 . 37 .4 9 . 31 . 19 .4 6 . 37 . 48 .4 6 . 34

( D1 = U n ite d S ta te s n a t io n a l in c o m e D e m a n d = ( D2 = N o n -c o u n try p ro d u c t io n

( D3 = L a t in - A m e r i c a n n o n - B r a z i l i a n p ro d u c t io n ( D4 = A f r ic a n p ro d u c t io n

S u p p ly = S = C o u n try p r o d u c t io n* = U n ite d S ta te s n a t io n a l in c o m e o m i t te d

105

T A B L E XXIX. R e la t iv e im p o r ta n c e of d em a n d .a n d su p p ly of in s ta b i l i t y of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

a s s o u r c e s

Y earB r a z i l E cu a d o r B o m in ic a n

R ep u b licP a n a m a

1 9 1 3 -2 2 B 2 B 2*1 9 1 4 -2 3 D2 B 2* B 2* •= “*1 9 1 5 -2 4 D2 B 2 * B 2* S1 9 1 6 -2 5 D2 -S* B 2* s1 9 1 7 -2 6 D2 S B2 s1 9 1 8 -2 7 D2 s B2 s1 9 1 9 -2 8 D2 s B 2 =» -1 9 2 0 -2 9 s ' . s * S s1 9 2 1 -3 0 D1 • S* S - -

1 9 2 2 -3 1 D1 s* s - ..1 9 2 3 -3 2 ■ S s* ' s s1 9 2 4 -3 3 D2 • s ■s s1 9 2 5 -3 4 D1 s s s1 9 2 6 -3 5 S s s s1 9 2 7 -3 6 S s s s1 9 2 8 -3 7 S s * D1 s1 9 2 9 -3 8 D1 s B1 :S1 9 3 0 -3 9 D1 s B1 s1 9 3 1 -4 0 ■■=* =* s B1 s1 9 3 2 -4 1 . D 1 s B1 s1 9 3 3 -4 2 D1 s B1 s1 9 3 4 -4 3 D1 ■ ™ B1 s1 9 3 5 -4 4 B1 B1 .s1 9 3 6 -4 5 B1 B1 s1937-46 s1938-47 S* - — * s*1 9 3 9 -4 8 S* = =, sjs s *1 9 4 0 -4 9 s * - — * s* s*1 9 4 1 -5 0 - s* s* s* s*1 9 4 2 -5 1 s* s* s* s*1 9 4 3 -5 2 s* s* s* s *1 9 4 4 -5 3 s* s* s*1 9 4 5 -5 4 s* s* s*1946.-55 s* s* s*1 9 4 7 -5 6 — — "B2* B1 s*1 9 4 8 -5 7 «=e E=. •B2* B1 • S*1 9 4 9 -5 8 B 2* B 1 s*1950-59 = . = •B2* B 2 s*

106

T A B L E X X IX . (C ontinued)

1 9 5 1 -6 01 9 5 2 -6 11 9 5 3 -6 21 9 5 4 -6 3

D 2 *• D 2 *

D 2*

S*S*s*D 2 *

D2D2D2D2

S*

A v e r a g e R/ .46 .4 7 59

D em a n d (D1 = U n ited S ta te s N a t io n a l In c o m e (D2 .= N o n -c o u n tr y p ro d u ct io n

Supply S = C oun try p ro d u ct io n* U n ited S ta te s N a tio n a l In com e o m it te d

C/2 02

02

107V

T A B L E X X X . R e la t iv e Im p o r ta n c e o f Supply As. S o u r c e o f I n s ta b i l i ty o f B a n a n a ;E x p o r t E a r n in g s

Y ea r C o staR ic a

; E cu ad or G u a te m a la H o n d u ra s

P a n a m a

1948-57 S S S S .S*

1949-58 S' . s ■ S S S*

1950-^9 s S S S s*

1951-60 : S s s s •s*

1952-61 s s -s s s*

1953-62 s s s s s*

1954-63 s s s ■s s*.

2A v e r a g e R .66 <o00 . 72 . 88 .40

''eU n i te d .S ta te s N ation a l I n c o m e o m it te d .

108

t im e p e r io d w as le f t u n c la s s i f i e d c o n c e r n in g the d o m in a n c e of

su p p ly or d em an d . L a s t l in e of the ta b le r e p r e s e n t s the a v e r a g e

c o e f f i c i e n t of d e te r m in a t io n . fo r a l l p e r io d s for e a c h co u n try .

F o r p u r e ly m e c h a n ic a l r e a s o n s , the r e s u l t s m a y be b ia s e d

s l ig h t ly to w a rd d em an d r a th e r than su p p ly s im p ly b e c a u s e th e r e

w e r e m o r e d em an d v a r ia b le s in the r e g r e s s i o n eq u a tio n s and

thus g r e a t e r op p ortu n ity m e r e l y by ch a n ce to in c r e a s e the c o m

b in ed c o r r e la t io n w ith the d e m a n d v a r i a b l e s • H o w e v e r , for

c e r t a in t im e p e r io d s (denoted by a s t e r i s k ) , the in c o m e v a r ia b le

w a s o m it te d and the b ia s w ould p ro b a b ly be tow ard the supply, s id e

for th o se p e r io d s .

The f i r s t h y p o th e s i s — that f lu c tu a t io n s in d em an d w e r e the

d om in an t c a u s e of v a r ia n c e of e x p o r t e a r n i n g s - - i s su p p o r te d for

m an y c o m b in a t io n s of t im e p e r io d and co u n try in the c a s e of

c o f fe e (T ab le XXVIII). The h y p o th e s i s i s m o r e c o n s i s t e n t ly

su p p o r ted for e a r l i e r r a th e r than la t e r t im e p e r io d s .

The f i r s t h y p o th e s i s w ith r e g a r d to c o c o a is g e n e r a l ly

su p p o r ted fo r the e a r ly and la te r p e r io d s w ith the e x c e p t io n of

P a n a m a , w h ich p r o d u c e s s m a l l e r q u a n t i t ie s (T ab le X X IX ).

F o r b a n a n a s , the f i r s t h y p o th e s i s i s not su p p o r te d for any

of the c o u n tr ie s s tu d ie d (T ab le X X X ), The fou rth h y p o th e s i s

a p p e a r s to be s u p p o r te d s o m e w h a t m o r e c o n s i s t e n t ly for the

l a r g e r r a th e r than the s m a l l e r p r o d u c e r s of c o f fe e and c o c o a .

The fifth h y p o t h e s i s - “that f lu c tu a t io n s in su p p ly .-is the d o m

inant s o u r c e of in s ta b i l i t y o f ex p o r t e a r n i n g s - - i s su p p o r te d in the

c a s e of c o f fe e and c o c o a , m o r e o ften fo r m id d le and la t e r t im e

p e r io d s and for c o u n tr ie s w ith the s m a l l e s t p ro d u ct io n (T a b le s

XXVIII and X X IX )„ F o r b a n a n a s , the h y p o th e s i s i s s t r o n g ly

s u p p o r te d for a l l c o u n tr ie s .and t im e p e r io d s s tu d ied (T ab le XXX),

F o r c o f fe e and c o c o a , it is d if f ic u lt to m a k e g e n e r a l iz a t io n s

and p r e d ic t i o n s , H o w e v e r , it d o es a p p ear that for the r e c e n t p a s t

and p ro b a b le fu ture th a t in s ta b i l i t y c o m e s m o r e f r o m d em a n d

than su p p ly for the l a r g e s t p r o d u c e r s . And that in s t a b i l i t y f r o m

su p p ly f lu c tu a t io n s h a s b e e n and p ro b a b ly w i l l be m o r e im p o r ta n t

for the c o u n tr ie s p ro d u c in g the s m a l l e r q u a n t i t ie s .

E v a lu a t io n of B r a z i l ' s C o f fe e -E x p o r t C o n tro l P r o g r a m

D urin g the 1 9 2 0 !-s and 1 9 3 0 !s B r a z i l c o m p le t e ly d o m in a ted the

p r o d u c t io n of L a t in A m e r ic a n , c o f f e e . D u r in g th is p e r io d , B r a z i l

took the in i t ia t iv e and o p e r a te d a u n i la t e r a l p r o g r a m of g o v e r n m e n t

p u r c h a s e , ^ s to ra g e and d e s t r u c t io n of c o f f e e . The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

of the o p e r a t io n of th is p r o g r a m m a d e it s im i l a r to a b u ffer s to c k

p r o g r a m .

R e l ia b le s ta t i s t ic s , on the q u a n t i t ie s of c o f fe e in v o lv e d in

B r a z i l ' s c o n tr o l p r o g r a m a r e u n a v a i la b le . A n a p p r o x im a t io n of

the d e s i r e d quantity s e r i e s i s ob ta in ed by su b tr a c t in g the annual

110

quantity e x p o r te d fr o m e s t i m a t e s of the quantity p ro d u ced in the

s a m e y e a r . T h is s e r i e s then in c lu d e s d o m e s t ic c o n su m p t io n as

w e l l a s the c h a n g e s in g o v e r n m e n t s to c k s and is t i t l e d B r a z i l ia n

n o n e x p o r t s .

If the B r a z i l i a n p r o g r a m had b e e n p r o p e r ly e x e c u te d , the

v a r ia n c e of B r a z i l i a n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s has b e e n s m a l l e r

than it o th e r w is e w ould have b e e n . A ls o , it sh ou ld be e x p e c te d

that the p r o g r a m w ould p ro b a b ly be m o r e e f f e c t iv e in in su la t in g

the e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m the e f f e c t s of f lu c tu a t io n s in i t s own

p ro d u ct io n than f o r e ig n s o u r c e s of in s ta b i l i t y .

The s y s t e m of a n a ly s i s u s e d in co n ju n ct io n w ith C hapter III

w a s r e p e a te d for B r a z i l w ith B r a z i l i a n n o n e x p o r ts in c lu d ed a s an

" exp lan atory" v a r ia b le . A s a m e a s u r e of the e f f e c t i v e n e s s of the

p r o g r a m w ith r e s p e c t to s p e c i f i c s o u r c e s the fo l lo w in g s t a t i s t i c

w as co m p u ted for e a c h so u r c e :

£ i =

(Tia.i CT-

Ei + £j = lb u t

E :i5

The r e s u l t o f th is c o m p u ta t io n i s to m e a s u r e the p ro p o r t io n -

ate ch an ge in the v a r ia n c e a s s o c ia t e d w ith B r a z i l ' s c o f fe e p ro d u ct io n ,

I l l

b e c a u s e the c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n p ro d u ct io n and n o n e x p o r ts i s not

z e r o . If the s t a t i s t i c i s n e g a t iv e , th en the to ta l v a r ia n c e is

r e d u c e d fr o m what it w ould have b e e n if the c o r r e la t io n had b een

z e r o .

F ig u r e 25 p lo ts th is s t a t i s t i c for B r a z i l ia n p ro d u ct io n , U nited

S ta tes N a t io n a l In co m e and n o n - B r a z i l ia n p ro d u ct io n . In ter cor r e l a

t io n p r o b le m s r e f e r r e d to e a r l i e r m ad e it n e c e s s a r y to o m it the

in c o m e v a r ia b le for p e r io d s end ing a f ter 1945. B e fo r e 1945, the

c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n c h a n g e s in U n ited S ta tes N a tio n a l In c o m e and

c h a n g e s in B r a z i l ia n n o n e x p o r ts r e s u l t e d in a d e s ta b i l i z a t io n of

the va lu e of e x p o r ts for m o s t p e r io d s .

Though h ig h ly in c o n s i s t e n t in m a g n itu d e , B r a z i l ' s n o n ex p o r ts

had a v e r y la r g e s ta b i l i z in g e f f e c t on p o te n t ia l in s ta b i l i t y of e a r n in g s

a s s o c i a t e d w ith i t s own p ro d u ct io n fo r p e r io d s ending b e fo r e 1938.

F o r p e r io d s end ing 1952 to 1962, the s ta b i l i z in g e f f e c t s r e la t iv e to

i t s own p ro d u ct io n w e r e s u b s ta n t ia l and f a ir ly c o n s i s t e n t ( s e e , a l s o ,

T a b le XXXI).

F o r the p e r io d s end ing b e fo r e 1952, the c o r r e la t io n b etw een

c h a n g e s in B r a z i l ' s n o n e x p o r ts and c h a n g e s in n o n - B r a z i l ia n

p ro d u ct io n a p p e a r s to have b een a r a n d o m p r o c e s s , and t h u s , the

e f f e c t has b een s ta b i l iz in g for s o m e p e r io d s and d e s ta b i l i z in g for

o th er p e r io d s . F o r p e r io d s a f ter 1951, the e f f e c t o f B r a z i l ' s c o f fe e

p r o g r a m has b een to o f f s e t 20 to 90 p er cen t of the in s ta b i l i t y of

112

T A B L E XXXI. S ta b i l iz a t io n of s o u r c e s of B r a z i l ia n c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty .

B r a z i l U . S . N o n - B r a z i lY ear P r o d u c t io n N a tio n a l P r o d u c t io n

In c o m eS i S i S i

1923 - . 08 - . 06 . 021924 - 3. 66 . 50 - . 171925 - 2. 11 . 73 - . 271926 - 10. 00 . 32 - . 171927 - 3. 91 . 37 - . 261928 - . 68 . 60 - . 291929 . 4 5 - . 47 . 201930 - . 4 2 . 67 - . 391931 0 . 50 - 1. 441932 - . 8 9 . 57 . 361933 - . 15 1. 35 01934 - 1. 56 . 66 . 751935 - 2. 31 . 4 2 .4 71936 - 2. 21 . 18 . 661937 - 3. 40 . 21 . 711938 1. 14 . 06 . 391939 . 50 - . 03 . 031940 - . 69 . 13 . 141941 . 50 - . 79 . 071942 . 4 0 . 73 - . 781943 . 54 , 14 - . 301944 - . 77 - . 52 . 521945 . 25 . 14 - . 251946 - . 23 * - . 121947 . 29 * . 311948 . 05 * . 061949 . 33 * . 501950 — . 04 * 01951 - , 06 * - . 111952 - . 19 * - . 261953 - . 20 * - . 271954 - . 53 * — . 311955 - . 50 * - . 4 61956 - . 14 * - . 441957 - . 62 * - . 80

113

T A B L E XXXI. (C ontinued)

1958 - . 79 * - . 881959 - . 79 * - . 50I960 - . 74 * . 6 01961 - . 91 * - . 371962 - . 93 ❖ - . 211963 1. 08 * - . 13

* U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l In co m e o m it te d .

. 5

S. N a t io n a . In com e+

N on -B ra z: 1 p rod u ction0

/] \ /

. 5

. 0

B r a z i l p ro d u ct io n

. 5

0I960 19631950 195519451923 1925 1930 1935 1940

F ig u r e 25. S ta b il iz a t io n of s o u r c e s of B r a z i l ia n ex p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty . S ou rce: T ab le XXXI.

* R e fe r s to te x t for e x p la n a tio n .

115

it s c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s that o t h e r w is e w ould have b e e n a s s o c ia t e d

w ith -f lu c tu a t io n s in the p ro d u ct io n of o th er c o u n tr ie s .

It a p p e a r s then that B r a z i l ’s n o n e x p o r ts have- substantia lly -

r e d u c e d the v a r ia n c e o f it s c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s , p a r t ic u la r ly

that in s ta b i l i t y r e la t e d to i t s own p ro d u c t io n and the p r o d u c t io n of

oth er c o u n t r i e s , The s t r o n g .and c o n s i s t e n t s t a b i l i z a t io n of e f f e c t s

of o th er c o u n t r i e s ’ p r o d u c t io n for r e c e n t y e a r s a l s o im p l i e s that

B r a z i l ’s p r o g r a m has s u b s ta n t ia l ly b e n e f i te d o th er c o u n tr ie s by

s ta b i l i z in g the v a lu e of th e ir c o f fe e e x p o r t s .

..I n te r r e la t io n s of E x p o r t E a r n in g s am on g C o m m o d it ie sw ith in C o u n tr ie s

The w ay in w h ich f lu c tu a t io n s in the e x p o r t e a r n in g s of the

in d iv id u a l c o m m o d it ie s of a co u n try a r e c o r r e la t e d w ould have c o n

s id e r a b le e f f e c t on the s ta b i l i t y of to ta l e x p o r t e a r n in g s . If f lu c tu a

t io n s • i n .e x p o r t e a r n in g s of the in d iv id u a l c o m m o d it ie s a r e c a u s e d by

d em a n d f lu c tu a t io n s w h ich a r e in turn c a u s e d by c o m m o n b u s in e s s

c y c l e s in the m a jo r im p o r t in g c o u n tr ie s then e a rn in g f lu c tu a t io n s

w il l b'e, p o s i t i v e l y c o r r e la t e d and the v a r ia n c e of the to ta l w i l l be

v e r y la r g e . The s a m e r e s u l t w ould be ob ta in ed i f su p p ly f lu c tu a

t io n s - w e r e d o m in a ted by c o m m o n w e a th e r c o n d it io n s .

E q u ation II - I pro vide,s a f r a m e w o r k for a n a ly z in g the e f f e c t s

of c o r r e la t io n of f lu c tu a t io n s of the e x p o r t e a r n in g s .

116

aT2

°A 2 + °B 2 + 2 r A B °A %

It can be s e e n f r o m th is fo r m u la that i f the c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n

c h a n g e s in the two s e r i e s w e r e z e r o , then the to ta l v a r ia n c e w ould

be s im p ly the s u m of the v a r ia n c e s o f the s e r i e s A and B . If the

c o r r e la t io n i s p o s i t iv e , the to ta l w i l l be l a r g e r than it w ould be

i f the c o r r e la t io n w a s z e r o . The o p p o s i te r e s u l t fo l lo w s f r o m a

n e g a t iv e c o r r e la t io n .

The fo l lo w in g eq u a t io n p r o v id e s a m e a n s of s c a l in g the

e f f e c t s of c o r r e la t io n s that d if fer f r o m ze r o :

F ig u r e 26 sh o w s the v a lu e of th is m e a s u r e for c o f fe e and c o c o a

w h ich have b een e x p o r te d in s u b s ta n t ia l q u a n t it ie s by B r a z i l ,

D o m in ic a n R ep u b lic and E c u a d o r . The c o r r e la t io n h as b een

p o s i t iv e in the c a s e o f E cu a d o r for a l l of the p e r io d s s tu d ie d w ith

one in s ig n i f i c a n t e x c e p t io n . F o r a s u b s ta n t ia l n u m b e r of t e n - y e a r

p e r io d s , the to ta l v a r ia n c e for E cu a d o r w a s i n c r e a s e d 50 to 90

p er c e n t o v e r w hat i t w ould have b e e n if the c o r r e la t io n had b een

z e r o . T a b le s XXXII and XXXIII s u g g e s t that the la r g e p o s i t iv e

c o r r e la t io n for p e r io d s ending 1935 to 1943 w e r e m o s t ly r e la te d

to c o m m o n su p p ly f lu c tu a t io n s . F o r o th er p e r io d s , the la r g e

p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n a p p e a r s to have b een a c c id e n ta l r a th e r than

due to c o m m o n c a u s e s .

V = 2 rAB

117

T A B L E XXXII. E f f e c t s o f c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o f fe e and c o c o a . f o r in d ic a te d c o u n t r i e s .

D o m in ic a nY ear B r a z i l . E cu a d o r R ep u b lic

V V V

1922 - . 0 8 . 191923 - . 1 2 . 2 01924 . 1 2 . 2 0 . 3 01925 . 1 0 . 2 5 . 3 21926 . 0 9 . 0 9 . 3 51927 . 0 9 . 1 5 . 3 81928 . 0 5 . 3 8 . 191929 " . 0 3 ̂ . 3 4 - . 0 51930 . 0 2 . 2 3 - . 0 81931 . 0 4 .2 1 . 0 21932 . 0 3 . 2 3 .0 11933 . 06 . 2 8 . - .0 0 11934 .0 1 . 2 4 - .0 11935 . 0 2 . 4 6 - , .0 51936 . 0 4 . 5 2 '. 141937 . 0 6 . 5 9 . 051938 . 0 6 . 5 9 - . 0 61939 . 04 . 7 9 .0 7

.1 9 4 0 . 0 4 . 9 4 . 0 41941 . 08 . 79 - .0 31942 . 2 6 ̂ 76 - . 0 71943 . 2 8 . 6 2 - . 0 61944 . 2 5 . 3 1 - .1 11945 . 0 9 , 2 3 - . 0 31946 . 0 9 . 2 3 - . 1 71 9 4 7 . 1 4 . 0 6 - . 2 41948 . 1 8 .1 1 - . 2 71949 . 25 . 09 - . 341950 . 0 5 - .0 1 - . 4 71951 . 08 . 68 ■- . 361952 . 0 7 . 7 3 - . 3 41953 . 1 2 , 6 4 - . 4 31954 . 10 • . 6 7 - .4 11955 - . 1 3 . 6 6 - . 341956 - . 0 7 . 7 1 . 01957 - . 0 3 . 6 9 . 0 51958 - . 03 . 6 9 . 1 4

118

T A B L E XXXII. (C ontinued)

1959 — . 03 . 56 . 07i 9 6 0 - . 03 .4 9 . 171 9 6 1 - . 04 . 51 . 181962 - . 04 . 54 ,2 71963 - . 0 2 1. 10 . 22

V*

E cuad o

. 50

. 25Bra:

m in ic a n R ep u b lic

.25

501922 1925 1955195019451935 19401930

• F ig u r e 26. E f f e c t s of c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o f fe e and c o c o a w ith in c o u n t r i e s . S ou rce: T a b le XXXII.

* R e fe r s to te x t for ex p la n a tio n .

120

T A B L E XXXIII. E f f e c t s o f c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n c o f fe e and banana; c o c o a and banana; and c o f f e e , c o c o a and banana, in in d iv id u a l c o u n t r i e s .

C o ffee and B anana

Y ear C o sta R ic e V

G u a te m a laV

H on d u rasV

19571958195919601961 1962 1963

03051001212432

39263839 37 25 25

14161413131020

C o c o a and B anana

Y ea r P a n a m a

19571958195919601961 1962 1963

16201817111209

C o ffee . C o c o a and B anana

Y ear E c u a d o r

19571958195919601961 1962 1963

. 4 9

. 4 8

. 4 6

. 27

. 16

. 36

. 21

v*. 60

40

20

+

0

20

- 4 0

C o sta 1U caZ

onduras

//

//\

\

/Guat^r

/nala

1957 1958 I960 1962 1963F ig u r e 27. E f fe c t of c o r r e la t io n b e tw een

e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o f fe e and bananas w ith in c o u n tr ie s .

S ou rce: T ab le XXXIII.* R e fe r s to te x t for ex p la n a t io n .

V*. 60

. 4 0

. 20 P a n a m a

-. 20

- . 401962 1963I9601957 1958

F ig u r e 28. E f fe c t s of c o r r e la t io n b etw een ex p o r t e a r n in g s of c o c o a and bananas in P a n a m a .

S ou rce: T ab le XXXIII.

^ R e fe r s to te x t for ex p la n a t io n .

121

122

The c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n c h a n g es in va lu e of c o f fe e and c o c o a

e x p o r t s for B r a z i l w e r e p o s i t iv e though genera li^ ; r a th e r u n im p ortan t

for p e r io d s end ing .be fore ' 1955. F o r la t e r p e r io d s the c o r r e la t io n

w as n e g a t iv e but s m a l l s o that it r e d u c e d the v a r ia n c e of the to ta l

e x p o r ts on ly s l ig h t ly /- fro m w hat it w ou ld have b een df the c o r r e la t io n

had b e e n z e r o . • B a s e d upon.th e s tud y of T a b le s XXXII and XXX III?

it a p p e a r s that the r e l a t iv e l y . la r g e p o s i t iv e e f f e c t s for p e r io d s e n d

ing, 1942 to 1944 a r e r e l a t e d to c h a n g es in U nited S ta te s N a t io n a l

In c o m e .

F o r the D o m in ic a n .R e p u b l ic ? the c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n e a r n in g s

of c o f fe e and c o c o a w a s p o s i t iv e for the e a r ly and la te p e r io d s

s tu d ied . The v a r ia n c e of c o m b in e d v a lu e of c o f fe e -a n d c o c o a .e x p o r t s

w as 20 to 50 p er ce n t l e s s for p e r io d s end ing 1947 to 1955 b e c a u s e

the c o r r e la t io n w a s s u b s ta n t ia l ly n e g a t iv e r a th e r than z e r o . F o r the

p e r io d s tu d ie d .th e r e a p p e a r s t© be no c o n s i s t e n t fo r c e c a u s in g -e i th e r

n e g a t iv e or p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n s .

F ig u r e 27 sh o w s the e f f e c t s of c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n the e a r n in g s

of. c o f fe e and ban anas for the c o u n tr ie s ex p o rt in g .su b s ta n t ia l

. q u a n tit ie s o f both, c o m m o d it ie s d u r in g the p e r io d s in c e 1948. The

c o r r e la t io n s h ave in c r e a s e d the v a r ia n c e of the to ta l e x c e p t for

s m a l l r e d u c t io n s for C o s ta .R ic a , fo r th r e e p e r io d s . T a b le s XXXIII

and F ig u r e 27 s u g g e s t that the c o n s i s t e n t p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n s for

H on d u ras a r e prob ab ly , due to c o m m o n .w e a th e r e f f e c t s fo r the two

123

crops* The c o n s i s t e n t ly n e g a t iv e c o r r e la t io n . f o r G u a tem a la

. cou ld be a ttr ib u ted to c h a n c e .

P a n a m a p r o d u c e d s u b s ta n t ia l q u a n ti t ie s of both c o c o a and

ban an as s in c e 1948* The p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n b e tw e e n the e a r n

in g s o f the two c o m m o d it ie s in c r e a s e d the v a r ia n c e of to ta l

e a r n in g s by 10 to 20 p er cen t e x c e p t for the f in a l p e r io d w hen a

n e g a t iv e c o r r e la t io n r e d u c e d the to ta l v a r ia n c e s by about 10

p er cen t o f w hat i t w ould h ave b e e n if the c o r r e la t io n had b een

z e r o . The. p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n p ro b a b ly a r o s e f r o m c o m m o n

w e a th e r e f f e c t s on the tw o c r o p s , (T ab le XXXIII). T h e r e a p p e a r s

to be a s l ig h t dow nw ard tren d in the e x te n t of p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n

b e tw e e n the e a r n in g s o f the two c r o p s .

E cu a d o r w a s the on ly co u n try s tu d ie d that e x p o r te d s u b

s ta n t ia l q u a n tit ie s of a l l th r e e c o m m o d i t i e s . F ig u r e 29 sh o w s the

c o m b in e d e f f e c t s of n o n z e r o c o r r e la t io n s am on g the e x p o r t e a r n

in g s o f the th r e e c o m m o d i t i e s . T h e s e n o n z e r o c o r r e la t io n s

r e s u l t e d in i n c r e a s e s i n the v a r ia n c e o f to ta l :e x p o r t e a r n in g s of

15 to 50 p er cen t for p e r io d s end ing 1957 to 1962* F o r the p e r io d

ending 1963 the n e g a t iv e c o r r e la t io n r e d u c e d the v a r ia n c e of the

c o m b in e d va lu e by about 20 p er c e n t . T h e r e a p p e a r s to be a. tren d

to w a rd r e d u c e d p o s i t iv e c o r r e la t io n .

. 60

. 4 0E c u a d

. 20

+

0

20

- . 4 01962 1963I9601957 1958

F ig u r e 29. E f fe c t s of c o r r e la t io n b e tw een e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o f fe e , c o c o a and bananas in E cu a d o r .

^ R e fe r s to te x t for ex p la n a t io n .

B r a z i l......

C o lo m b ia ------

D o m in ic a n R ep —

E cu ad or

E l S a lvad or —

G u atem ala

H aiti

H onduras -

M ex ico —

N ic a r a g u a

1922 1925 1930 1935 . L940 1945 1950 1955 I960 1963

F ig u r e 30. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich U. S. N a tio n a l In com e w as a s s o c ia t e d with a la r g e r am ou nt of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty than o th er v a r ia b le s .

B r a z i l------

-

D o m in ic a n R ep .

E cu a d o r

P a n a m a

F ig u r e 31. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich U .S . N a tio n a l In com e w a s a s s o c ia t e d with a la r g e r am ount of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty than o th er v a r ia b le s .

B r a z i l

C o lo m b ia

C o sta R ic a


E cu ad or

E l S a lvad or

G u a tem a la

H ait i

H onduras

M e x ic o

N ic a r a g u a1922 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 I960 1963

F ig u r e 32. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich p ro d u ct io n of o th er c o u n tr ie s w as a s s o c ia t e d w ith a la r g e r am ount of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y than other v a r ia b le s .

B r a z i l

D o m in ic a n R ep .'

E cu a d o r —

P a n a m a

1922 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 I 9 6 0 1 9 6 3

F ig u r e 33. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich p ro d u ct io n of o th er c o u n tr ie s w as a s s o c ia t e d with a l a r g e r am ount o f c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s than o th er v a r i a b l e s .

B r a z i l

C o lo m b ia

C o sta R ic a

D o m in ic a n R ep . — — — —

E cu a d o r

E l Sa lvad or — —

G u a tem a la

H ait i

H onduras —

M ex ico ~

N ic a r a g u a — ——VJTZ T925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 I960 1963

F ig u r e 34. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich the in d iv id u a l cou n try ‘s own p ro d u ct io n w as a s s o c ia t e d w ith a la r g e r am ou n t of c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty than o th er v a r ia b le s .

B r a z i l—


E cu ad or

P a n a m a1922 1925 1930 1935 1940 1 9 4 5 1950 1955 1960 1963

F ig u r e 35. T en y e a r p e r io d s for w h ich the in d iv id u a l c o u n tr y ’s own p rod u ction w as a s s o c ia t e d w ith a la r g e r am oun t of c o c o a e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty than o th er v a r ia b le s .

C H A P T E R V

THE ST A B IL IZ A T IO N PR O G RA M S A N D THEIR C O N TRIBU TIO N

TO ST A B IL IT Y OF E X P O R T 'E A R N IN G S

T he p r o b le m s of in s ta b i l i t y and s ta b i l i z a t io n p o l i c i e s fo r

p r im a r y -p r o d u c in g c o u n tr ie s a r e v e r y c o m p le x and not e a s i l y r e

d u ced to s im p le ■ g e n e r a l iz a t io n . T h e r e e x i s t s a la r g e and growing,

v o lu m e of l i t e r a t u r e on s t a b i l i z a t io n p o l i c i e s , : but m u c h of the

d is c u s s io n h a s b e e n f o r c e d to r e m a in on an .a b s tr a c t p la n e s im p ly

b e c a u s e of la c k of data r e le v a n t to the p r o p o s e d p o l i c i e s . The

• c o r r e c t p o l ic y fo r any co u n try can on ly b e a r r iv e d at b y -a u s e fu l

weighing; .of the b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of a l t e r n a t iv e p o l i c i e s in the

c o n te x t of the e c o n o m ic c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f the co u n try and the

1o v e r a l l p o l ic y o b je c t iv e s of i t s g o v e r n m e n t ,

O b je c t iv e s of S ta b i l i z a t io n P r o g r a m s

.Many d i f f e r e n t p r o g r a m s h ave b e e n d e v e lo p e d fo r a ttem p tin g

to .d e a l w ith s t a b i l i z a t io n of e x p o r ts e a r n in g s , S o m e call on ly fo r

in te r n a l a c t io n by the p ro d u c in g country , s o m e r e q u ir e c o n c e r te d

1, A. E . M a c b e a n , . " P r o b le m s - o f S ta b i l i z a t io n .P o l i c y in -U n d e r d e v e lo p e d G d u n tr ies , " ( I l lu s t r a t e d f r o m .a s tu d y of ju te in P a k is ta n ) O x fo r d -E c o n o m ic P a p e r s .(New S e r i e s ) , V o l . 14,N o . 2 , . J u n e -1962 , p . 2 6 1 / ' ; 51 ; .

131

132

a c t io n by a grou p of p ro d u c in g c o u n t r i e s ? o th e r s c a l l fo r b r o a d e r

in te r n a t io n a l a c t io n , . A m o n g th e la t e r d e v ic e s a r e the in te r n a t io n a l -x

c o m m o d ity a g r e e m e n t s w h ich w i l l be d i s c u s s e d in s o m e d e ta i l at

2the end of th is .ch ap ter . A c c o r d in g to D lau , th e r e a r e f iv e o b j e c

t iv e s or c o m b in a t io n of o b je c t iv e s that t h e s e a g r e e m e n t s can

s e r v e :

1. " T hey can a t te m p t to r a i s e , or uphold, e x p o r t -e a r n in g by

m e a n s of a r r a n g e m e n ts a m on g p r o d u c e r s , r e s t r i c t in g

p ro d u c t io n or e x p o r t s or both . . . .

2 0 "T hey can a t te m p t to p r o m o te e c o n o m ic s ta b i l i t y , both in

the p ro d u c in g .and in. the c o n s u m in g c o u n t r i e s , by p r e v e n t

ing undue f lu c tu a t io n s o f p r i c e s and q u a n t i t ie s tr a d e d but

w ithou t in t e r f e r in g w ith l o n g - t e r m t r e n d s .

3„ "T hey can en d e a v o r to m it ig a te the p r o b le m s and h a r d

sh ip s of s u c h l o n g - t e r m a d ju s tm e n ts a s m a y be r e q u ir e d i n

c a s e s of p e r s i s t e n t d i s e q u i l ib r iu m b e tw e e n -production and

c o n su m p tio n , p a r t ic u la r ly u n der c o n d it io n s o f in e l a s t i c

su p p ly and d em an d ,

4 , " T hey can t r y to c o u n te r a c t the sh r in k a g e of m a r k e t s to

p r im a r y p r o d u c e r s w h ich r e s u l t s - f r o m p r o t e c t io n i s t

m e a s u r e s o f p r e f e r e n t ia l a r r a n g e m e n t s in im p o r t in g

c o u n t r i e s ,

2, G erd a D lau , In te r n a t io n a l C o m m o d ity A r r a n g e m e n t s , F , A , O, M on th ly D ull, o f A g r ic u l tu r a l E c o n o m ic s and S t a t i s t i c s , V oL 12, N o , 9, p, 1 -9 , S e p te m b e r 1963,

133

5 o "T hey can be u s e d a s in s t r u m e n ts for in te r -g o v e r n m e n ta l

c o m m o d ity p r o g r a m m in g by g o v e r n m e n ts on m o r e c o m

p r e h e n s iv e d i n e s , , tak in g a c c o u n t of trad e on both

. c o m m e r c i a l and c o n c e s s io n a l t e r m s , of n a t io n a l p o l i c i e s

r e la t in g to p ro d u ct io n , p r i c e s , and s t o c k s , and of the

c l o s e l in k s b e tw e e n p r o b le m s of c o m m o d ity t r a d e , aid ,

and d e v e lo p m e n t p r o g r a m s .

"One of the -m ajor d i f f ic u l t ie s in the a c tu a l n e g o t ia t io n of

. in te r n a t io n a l c o m m o d ity a g r e e m e n t s h a s b een that the

p a r t ic ip a t in g g o v e r n m e n ts h ave not a lw a y s b e e n fu l ly .

c o n s c io u s of w h ich of th e s e f iv e o b je c t iv e s th e y w e r e

m a in ly a im in g at; nor w e r e th ey fu l ly c o n s c io u s of the

e x te n t to w h ich any of t h e s e o b je c t iv e s cou ld be s u c c e s s

fu l ly a t ta in ed by one or the o th er of the s ta n d a r d ty p e s of

3a g r e e m e n t - t e c h n i q u e s . "

F o u r S tandard T y p es o f A g r e e m e n t s

(1) The M u lt i la t e r a l C o n tr a c t : The m a in . f e a tu r e o f su ch an

a g r e e m e n t i s that it co n ta in s an o b l ig a t io n on im p o r t e r s or

e x p o r t e r s to buy or s e l l c e r ta in g u a r a n te e d q u a n t i t ie s .

^r '̂T“u~7 .

3o Ib id . , p„ 323 .

’’T h e s e g u a r a n te e s h a v e b e e n im p le m e n te d at a s t ip u la te d

.m in im u m p r ic e , or s t ip u la te d .m ax im u m p r ic e , w h e n e v e r the f r e e

m a r k e t p r ic e r e a c h e s or e x c e e d s t h e s e l i m i t s , The w h e a t a g r e e

m e n t i s b a s i c a l l y o f th is ty p e .

(2) In te r n a t io n a l B u ffer Stock: U nd er th is p r o g r a m , a buffer

s to c k o r g a n iz a t io n buys or s e l l s c o m m o d it ie s to s t a b i l i z e p r i c e s .

W hen p r i c e s a r e fa l l in g , . it w i l l buy at a s e t p r ic e and ho ld c o m

m o d it ie s for i t s ow n a cco u n t . W hen p r i c e s a r e r i s in g , i t w i l l s e l l

c o m m o d it ie s at a s e t p r i c e .

A m on g the p r o b le m s a r i s i n g u n der th is s c h e m e is the w e l l

known p r o b le m of p rov id in g , adequ ate f in a n ce to en ab le the •authority

to ■carry out i t s fu n c t io n s . T h is i s c lo s e ly , r e la t e d to the d if f ic u l ty

of s u c c e s s f u l l y f o r e c a s t i n g the fu ture r e la t io n s h ip s b e tw e e n supp ly

and d em an d and of s e c u r in g in te r n a t io n a l a g r e e m e n t of p r ic e l e v e l s

• c o n s is te n t w ith ;the p r o s p e c t iv e m o v e m e n t o f the lo n g - t e r m , w o r ld

e q u i l ib r iu m p r ic e ; M od e l III d e v e lo p e d in C hapter II w i l l be u se d

to e v a lu a te s o m e of the im p l ic a t io n s of a b u ffer s to c k p ro g ra m , for

c o c o a and c o f fe e e x p o r t e a r n in g s . T h e s e p ro d u cts can be s to r e d ,

and at the p r e s e n t t im e , both of th e m h a v e e x p o r t quota a g r e e m e n t s .

(3) B u ffer Fund: I n :th is p r o g r a m , in s t e a d of s t o r in g the

p ro d u ct and s e t t in g a u n i f o r m .p r ic e for both u s e r s and s u p p l i e r s ,

4» Ibid. , s e e r e f e r e n c e for m o r e d e ta i l s on th is a g r e e m e n t .

135

th e a g e n c y s e t s a s ta b le p r ic e on ly fo r the p r o d u c e r s and l e t s th e

m a r k e t in e a c h p e r io d f ind a p r ic e - w h ich e q u i l ib r a te s q uantity

su p p lied :w ith the quantity demanded,. T h e-M o d e l III d e v e lo p e d in

C hapter 'll w i l l be u s e d a l s o in th is c a s e to ev a lu a te s o m e of the .

im p l ic a t io n s of a b u f fe r - s to c k p r o g r a m fo r c o f fe e 9 c o c o a , and

banana e x p o r t e a r n in g s o .

. (4) Q uota A g reem en t:® T h is i s an a r r a n g e m e n t u n d er w h ich

e x p o r t in g n a t io n s a g r e e to l i m i t th e ir .'m arketings so th at c e r ta in .

p r ic e , o b je c t iv e s can be a tta in ed .

. S o m e - export, quotas a r e s e t in a b s o lu te t e r m s ~ ~ s o m a n y

un its p e r co u n tr y -^ a n d a r e u s u a l ly b a s e d on e a c h c o u n tr y ’s s h a r e . . -

of the ^market in an a g r e e d - b a s e "period. A t o th er t im e s the

' quota m a y be s et in t e r m s of s ta te d p e r c e n t a g e s of p r o d u c t io n

to be w ith h e ld f r o m e x p o r t , but th is a r r a n g e m e n t m a k e s fo r l e s s

pr e c i s i o n in m a r k e t in g b e c a u s e output .m a y v a r y g r e a t ly f r o m

e s t i m a t e s . The c o f fe e a g r e e m e n t i s e s s e n t i a l l y the f ix e d .q u o ta

ty p e .

5. S u b c o m m it t e e 'o n .A m e r ic a n R e p u b l ic s A f fa ir s of the C o m m it te e on F o r e i g n : R e l a t i o n s ,, U. S. S e n a t e , . United. S ta te s - L atin A m e r ic a ^ : R e la t io n s S en a te •D o c u m e n t N o. 125, 86th C o n g r e s s ,. Z n d .S e s s io n , . W ashington^. D. C. , I9 6 0 , p a g e 130. .

136

R e v ie w of C o m m o d ity S ta b i l iz a t io n P r o g r a m s for C offeeand C o co a

G e n e r a l ly the w o r ld c o f fe e 11 s u r p lu s 11 s i tu a t io n i s the s a m e as

i t w as s ix ty y e a r s ago . ̂ B r a z i l has g r a d u a l ly l o s t i t s h igh s h a r e o f

w o r ld m a r k e t s but r e m a in s the d o m in a t in g fa c to r in th em . In the

p a s t , v a r io u s ty p e s of p r o g r a m s d e s ig n e d and im p le m e n te d by

B r a z i l w e r e a im e d b a s i c a l l y at m a r k e t s ta b i l iz a t io n through s to r a g e

of s u r p lu s e s from , la r g e c r o p s , to be draw n upon in y e a r s of sh o r t

crop s ,. T hus, B r a z i l has o p e r a te d e s s e n t i a l l y a b uffer s to c k

p r o g r a m for c o f f e e .• It s e e m s that g e n e r a l ly th is p r o g r a m has

s t a b i l i z e d B r a z i l ’s e x p o r t e a r n in g s of c o f f e e , e s p e c i a l l y in the

p e r io d s end ing in the 1 9 3 0 ’s . The r o le o f B r a z i l ch an ged w ith the

o u tb rea k of w ar in E u rop e; the r iv a l s m a l l e r L a t in - A m e r ic a n

p ro d u c in g c o u n tr ie s su d d en ly b eg a n to d i s c o v e r that th ey had

in t e r e s t s in c o m m o n w ith B r a z i l .

The tren d of s ta b i l i z a t io n of e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m c o f fe e for

the p e r io d b e tw e e n .1942 and 1962 can be a ttr ib u ted to s o m e ex ten t

to the s e v e r a l a t te m p ts at e s ta b l i s h in g c o n tr o l s c h e m e s at the

in te r n a t io n a l l e v e l .

6. V e rn o n D. W ic k s e r , ’’In te r n a t io n a l C o l la b o r a t io n in the W o r ld ’s C offee In d u stry , ” F ood R e s e a r c h In s t i tu te S t u d i e s , V ol.IV, N o. 3, 1964.

The Inter “A m e r ic a n C offee A g r e e m e n t of 1941 m u s t be

r e g a r d e d p r im a r i ly a s a .p o l i t ic a l m e a s u r e d e v is e d to m e e t p r e s s

in g p r o b l e m s „ P r o d u c in g c o u n tr ie s a g r e e d to r e g u la te m a r k e t in g ,

i . e . , r e s t r i c t the f lo w of a v a i la b le s u p p l ie s by w ith h o ld in g .a

p o rt io n of th e ir e x p o r ta b le p ro d u ct io n . T h is s o - c a l l e d .M exico

-A g r e e m e n t w a s e f f e c t iv e one year.. - E a r ly in. 1958 an In te rn a t io n a l

C o ffee O r g a n iz a t io n w a s e s t a b l i s h e d to p r o m o te w o r ld tra d e and

co n su m p t io n and to im p r o v e p ro d u ct io n c o n d it io n s . L a te in

S e p te m b e r 1959 the t e m p o r a r y e m e r g e n c y -m ea su re d e s ig n e d two

y e a r s e a r l i e r in •M exico w a s . ex te n d e d a g a in . F o r t h e - f i r s t t im e

s o m e A fr ic a n p ro d u c in g c o u n tr ie s w e r e p e r s u a d e d to jo in . The

s e v e n p ro d u c in g c o u n tr ie s in the F i r s t I n te r n a t io n a l C o ffee A g r e e -

m e n t (1959) w e r e e s t im a t e d to a cco u n t for m o r e than 85 -p er cen t

of the w orld"s c o f fe e t r a d e . In. I960 , th is a g r e e m e n t w a s r e n e w e d

w ith s l ig h t m o d i f i c a t i o n s . In 1962, th e r e w a s the l a s t I n te rn a t io n a l

C offee A g r e e m e n t b e tw e e n the l a r g e s t c o f fe e -p r o d u c in g cou n try ,

B r a z i l , and the g r e a t e s t c o f f e e - c o n s u m in g cou n try , the U n ited

S ta te s . B y N o v e m b e r 20, 1962,. f i f t y - fo u r gov ern m en ts , had

I n d ic a te d th e ir in t e r e s t to jo in . T h ey r e p r e s e n t 32 e x p o r t in g and ■

22 im p o r t in g . c o u n tr ie s , a cco u n tin g for 95 o f the w o r ld ’s c o f fee

e x p o r ts and im p o r t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The c u r r e n t In te r n a t io n a l

C o ffee A g r e e m e n t P r o g r a m , th rou gh a . s e r i e s . o f in d iv id u a l e x p o r t

quotas for e a c h of the p a r t ic ip a t in g c o u n tr ie s has p la c e d e a c h

co u n try in the p o s i t io n of o p e r a t in g . i t s own s to r a g e p r o g r a m .

7N u r k se b rough t out c l e a r ly that b u ffer fund p r o g r a m s a re

fa v o r i t e n a t io n a l d e v ic e s that c o n s i s t in ta x in g the e x p o r t o f -p r im a r y

c o m m o d it ie s in good t im e s and s u b s id iz in g in bad t i m e s . The p u r

p o s e of th is p o l ic y i s not to r e d u c e v a r i a t i o n s : in the W o rld M a rk et

p r i c e s , but to s o f te n th e ir im p a c t on the d o m e s t i c e c o n o m y .b y

sta ,b il iz ing the d i s p o s a b le in c o m e r e a l i z e d by p r im a r y p r o d u c e r s .

He a l s o p o in ted out th r e e w a y s in w h ich th is can be done: (1) A

c e n tr a l m a r k e t in g a g e n c y can be e s t a b l i s h e d , . w h ich g u a r a n te e s a

c e r ta in p r ic e to d o m e s t i c p r o d u c e r s and s e l l s the p ro d u ct ab road

at w h a te v e r p r ic e th ey m a y - fe tc h in the e x p o r t m a r k e t . The

d o m e s t ic p r ic e pa id to p r o d u c e r s cou ld c o n c e iv a b ly be f ix e d in

s u c h a w ay that the s c h e m e w ould am ou n t to a . ta x in good , and a

s u b s id y in bad y e a r s . In F ig u r e 2 of C hap ter TI, the p r ic e that the x

g o v e r n m e n t p r o g r a m w i l l pay i s OL, the p r ic e in good y e a r s i s

eq u a l to OK and p r ic e in bad y e a r s i s eq u a l to OF, (2) A. s c h e m e

of e s s e n t i a l l y the sam ^ kind m a y o p e r a te e x p r e s s l y in the fo r m

of v a r ia b le e x p o r t taxes , and e x p o r t s u b s id i e s , and (3). An ex ch a n g e

c o n tr o l a g e n c y can-do the s a m e k in d of th ing by lo w e r in g .and'

r a i s in g the o f f ic ia l b u y in g .r a te s at w h ich it ta k e s o v e r the fo r e ig n

ex c h a n g e p r o c e e d s o f e x p o r t e r s . If the s e l l in g r a t e s o f fo r e ig n ex c h a n g e

7, R a g n e r N u r k s e , " T rad e F lu c tu a t io n s and B u ffer P o l i c i e s of L o w "Incom e C o u n tr ie s , M R e p r in te d in A g r ic u l tu r e in E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t , by C a r l .E ic h e r and L a w r e n c e W itt, M c G r a w -H il l B ook C om pan y , N ew Y ork , p, 315,

139

r e m a in constants the -agen cy can o p e r a te s o a s to m a k e a p ro f it in

p e r io d s of h igh e x p o r t p r i c e s ab road and a d o s s a t 'o th e r t im e s .

The W e#t A fr ic a n .M a r k e t in g B o a r d for c o c o a , p a lm o i l , e t c . ,

i s one of the le a d in g e x a m p le s of m eth o d (1). M ethod (2) has been

u s e d w id e ly by v a r io u s c o u n tr ie s in S o u th e a s t A s i a in r e c e n t y e a r s .

M ethod (3), w h e r e the ^manipulation of e x ch a n g e r a t e s i s the *

im p o r ta n t d e v ic e , i s u s e d in L a t in A m e r ic a . A l l t h e s e th r e e m eth o d s

ten d to s e v e r the c o n n e c t io n b e tw e e n f lu c tu a t io n s in e x t e r n a l p r i c e s

and e x p o r t p r o c e e d s on the one hand, and the n et p r i c e s and

in c o m e s r e c e i v e d by p r o d u c e r s on ,th e o th er hand. T h ey a r e

n a t io n a l m e a s u r e s a v a i la b le to any s in g le co u n try and a r e not

d ep en d en t .o n in te r n a t io n a l a g r e e m e n t . A b ove a l l , th ey can and

sh ou ld be o p e r a te d in su c h a w a y that a b u ffer fund of fo r e ig n

e x c h a n g e s i s a c c u m u la te d w hen e x p o r t p r i c e s a r e h igh and w h ich

can be draw n upon w hen e x p o r t p r i c e s a r e low . In c o n tr a s t w ith

buffer s to c k p r o g r a m , a b uffer fund of th is s o r t can be s ta r te d

w hen w o r ld d em an d i s b o o m in g .

The f i r s t a ttem p t-to r e g u la te the c o c o a m a r k e t on a w o r ld

w id e b a s i s th rou gh ;th e im p o s i t io n of e x p o r t quotas and a s y s t e m of

o p e r a t in g r u le s is b e in g put to the t e s t th is s e a s o n by a .P r o d u c e r ’s

I n te r n a t io n a l C o c o a .A g r e e m e n t . ® T h is p a ct w a s s ig n e d b y the

8. U n ited S ta tes D e p a r tm e n t of A g r ic u l tu r e , F o r e ig n A g r ic u l tu r e ,C ir c u la r F . C . B . 2 -6 4 , N o v e m b e r 1964, p. 9.

140

km e m b e r c o u n tr ie s in t h e S e c o n d A nnual M e e t in g h e ld in B r a z i l in

S e p te m b e r 1964, The a l l ia n c e i s c o m p o s e d of Ghana, N ig e r ia ,

the T vory C o a st , C a m e r o n , T ogo and B r a z i l , w h ich to g e th e r

p ro d u ce about four “f if th s of the w o r ld 's c o c o a crops®

O p tim u m P o l i c i e s for C o u n tr ie s -E x p o r t in g S m a ll Q u a n tit ie s

In C hap ter TV i t w a s found that for r e c e n t p e r io d s the

c o u n tr ie s ex p o r t in g the s m a l l e r q u a n t i t ie s of c o f fe e and c o c o a

ten d ed to have the l a r g e s t s o u r c e of in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s

in th e ir own p ro d u ct io n v a r ia b i l i t y . T h e s e c o u n tr ie s w ou ld be

e x p e c te d to have an e l a s t i c e x p o r t d em a n d b e c a u s e th ey in d iv id u a l ly

p ro d u ce su c h a s m a l l p a r t o f to ta l co n su m p tio n . The fa c t that the

• in stab il ity is m o s t ly a s s o c i a t e d w ith th e ir own p ro d u ct io n w ould

. fo l lo w f r o m and i s e v id e n c e that the e x p o r t d em an d i s v e r y

e l a s t i c for t h e s e c o u n t r ie s .

The m o d e ls d e v e lo p e d in C hapter II s u g g e s t that the bu ffer

s to c k p r o g r a m a p p lied in t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s “ - m o s t of the

in s ta b i l i t y a r i s in g f r o m su pp ly f lu c tu a t io n s but s o m e f r o m dem and

flu c tu a t io n s and e x p o r t d em an d p r ic e e l a s t i c - - w o u l d y i e ld a

c o m p le te r e d u c t io n of e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y a r i s i n g f r o m

. f lu c tu a t io n s in - i t s ow n p ro d u ct io n and an in c r e a s e in in s ta b i l i t y

a r i s in g f r o m d em an d .f lu c tu a tion s ̂ B u ffer fund p r o g r a m s a p p lied

9. R e fe r to T ab le VII in C hapter II.

in t h e s e s a m e c ir c u m s t a n c e s , w ould be e x p e c te d to in c r e a s e the

in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m f lu c tu a t io n s of i t s own p r o d u c

t ion and r e d u c e the in s ta b i l i t y f r o m the d em an d f lu c t u a t io n s .

T h e r e f o r e , the b e s t c o u r s e of a c t io n for the c o u n tr ie s e x p o r t

ing r e l a t iv e l y s m a l l q u a n tit ie s of c o f fe e and c o c o a , i s not o b v io u s .

T h o s e c o u n tr ie s that h ave n e a r ly a l l of th e ir e x p o r t e a r n in g s

■instability a s s o c i a t e d w ith .f lu ctu a tion s in su p p ly w ould f ind buffer

s to c k p r o g r a m s to be d e s ir a b le s in c e t h e s e p r o g r a m s y ie ld a

c o m p le te r e d u c t io n of in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s ;w h e n dem an d

i s s ta b le and su p p ly i s u n s ta b le . T h o s e c o u n t r i e s • in th is c a te g o r y

that have s u b s ta n t ia l a m ou n ts of v a r i a n c e • a s s o c ia t e d w ith .c h a n g e s

in d em an d w ou ld find b u ffer s to c k p r o g r a m s :l e s s d e s ir a b le s in c e

w ith th is p o l ic y f lu c tu a t io n s of an e l a s t i c d em an d y ie ld in c r e a s e d

in s ta b i l i t y from , that s o u r c e . The b u ffer fund p r o g ra m , a p p lied

to t h e s e c o u n tr ie s w ith m o s t in s ta b i l i t y of ex p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m

. its.;own p ro d u ct io n and e l a s t i c d em an d w ould p rob ab ly in c r e a s e on

b a la n c e the c o m b in e d . in s ta b i l i t y f r o m su p p ly and d em a n d s o u r c e s .

The a n a ly s i s of C hapter IV d e te r m in e d that the e x p o r t

e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y o f e a c h of Other b a n a n a . ex p o r t in g c o u n tr ie s w as

v e r y c l o s e l y r e la te d .to - f lu c tu a t io n s in . i t s own p r o d u ct io n . T h is^

ag a in :su g g es-ts a v e r y e l a s t i c e x p o r t d em an d . The p e r i s h a b i l i t y

of bananas m a k e s the buffer s to c k a p p ro a ch m e a n in g le s s . The

b u ffer fund p r o g r a m a p p lied to th is s itu a t io n , w ould i n c r e a s e the

142

in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s a s s o c i a t e d w ith in s ta b i l i t y o f the

c o u n tr y ’s own p ro d u ct io n . T h e r e f o r e , n e i th e r p ro g ra m , a p p e a r s

to be a p p r o p r ia te for s ta b i l i z in g .e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m b a n a n a s .

O p tim u m P o l i c i e s Tor C o u n tr ie s E x p o r t in g L a r g e Q u a n tit ie s

In C hap ter IV i t w a s found that fo r r e c e n t p e r io d s the c o u n tr ie s

p ro d u c in g the l a r g e r q u a n t it ie s o f c o f fe e and c o c o a . t e n d e d to d e r iv e

m o s t o f th e ir e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i t y from , f lu c tu a t io n s in the

p ro d u ct io n b r o t h e r c o u n t r ie s . T h is r e s u l t i s c o n s i s t e n t w ith , but

d o e s not a s s u r e , a p r ic e e l a s t i c i t y o f d em a n d -fo r e x p o r t s that is

n e a r unity.. B e c a u s e o f the. la r g e s h a r e of w o r ld c o n s u m p t io n of

c o f fe e r e p r e s e n t e d by. B r a z i l i a n p ro d u c t io n it m ig h t be e x p e c te d that

B r a z i l ' s e x p o r t d em an d for c o f fe e w ou ld be m o r e l ik e ly to be

in e l a s t i c than the e x p o r t d em an d for any o th er country, fo r c o f fe e)

or c o c o a . H o w e v e r , the p r ic e e l a s t i c i t y o f d em an d im p l i e d by the

r e g r e s s i o n a n a ly s i s for m o s t o f the r e c e n t p e r io d s for B r a z i l i a n

c o f fe e a r e e l a s t i c r a th e r than i n e l a s t i c . H o w e v e r , th o s e r e s u l t s

m ay. h ave b e e n . in f lu e n c e d by B r a z i l ' s s ta b i l i z a t io n p r o g r a m .

The m o d e ls d e v e lo p e d in C hap ter II s u g g e s t that the b u ffer

s to c k p r o g r a m s a p p lie d in: t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s - - i n s t a b i l i t y fr o m

f lu c tu a t io n s in e x p o r t d em a n d and e l a s t i c d em an d fo r e x p o r t s - -

w il l i n c r e a s e the in s ta b i l i t y f r o m e x p o r t d em an d and c o m p le t e ly

e l im in a te in s ta b i l i t y a r i s i n g . f r o m in s ta b i l i t y of its ow n p ro d u ct io n .

143

B u ffer fund p r o g r a m s a p p lied in t h e s e s a m e c i r c u m s t a n c e s w ould

y ie ld r e d u c e d in s ta b i l i t y of e x p o r t e a r n in g s f r o m d em an d f lu c tu a

t io n s and in cr ea se d ^ in s t a b i l i t y f r o m s u p p ly f lu c tu a t io n s „

The co u n try w ith e s s e n t i a l l y no in s ta b i l i t y a r i s i n g . f r o m

. f lu c tu a t io n s • in-dts ow n p ro d u ct io n w ou ld f ind that a b u ffer fund

p r o g r a m .m ig h t su b sta n t ia lly , s t a b i l i z e i t s e x p o r t e a r n in g s . O ther

c o u n tr ie s w ith s u b s ta n t ia l , but not m o s t , . in s ta b i l i t y f r o m

f lu c tu a t io n s in i t s ow n p ro d u ct io n m ig h t f in d that n e ith e r S u ffer

s to c k nor bu ffer fund p r o g r a m s w ou ld y i e ld enough s ta b i l i z a t io n

pn b a la n c e to m a k e e i th e r p ro g ra m , w o r th w h ile .

E x p o r t Q uota P r o g r a m s

The r e c e n t tr e n d in .c o m m o d ity s t a b i l i z a t io n p r o g r a m s has

b e e n .to e s t a b l i s h - e x p e r t q u otas fo r e a c h country* If th is p r o g r a m

. i s o p e r a te d in a, t h e o r ic a l ly o p t im u m m a n n e r it w i l l h a v e the

fo l lo w in g r e s u l t s on e x p o r t e a r n in g s in s ta b i l i ty :

1) Supply of a l l c o u n tr ie s i s p e r f e c t l y i n e l a s t i c at s e t quota.

2) D em a n d for e x p o r t ,w i l l be m o r e in e l a s t i c .

3) In s ta b i l i ty f r o m .f lu c tu a t io n s in p ro d u ct io n in o th er

c o u n t r i e s . c o m p le t e ly e l im in a te d .

4) I n s ta b i l i ty fro m , f lu ctu ation s , in. c o u n tr y 's own p r o d u c

t io n c o m p le t e ly e l im in a te d .

144

5) W orld p r ic e s ta b i l i ty :

a) F lu c tu a t io n s in w o r ld p r ic e f r o m f lu c tu a t io n s

. in su p p ly c o m p le t e ly e l im in a t e d 0

b) P r i c e f lu c tu a t io n s . fr o m f lu c tu a t io n s in d em an d

in c r e a s e d .

In t e r m s of the e x p e c te d s o u r c e s of in s ta b i l i t y and the

s ta b i l iz in g p o w er w ith -r e sp e c t e x p o r t e a r n i n g s : the in te r n a t io n a l

e x p o r t quota p r o g r a m s s e e m to o f fe r g r e a t p r o m is e . H o w e v e r 5

t h e s e b e n e f i t s m u s t be w e ig h e d a g a in s t the c o s t of r e d u c e d e a r n

in g s o v e r t im e (w ithout r e d u c t io n in the to ta l quantity, e x p o r te d )5

the d iff icu lty , and c o s t of ad ju st in g .a v e r a g e p ro d u ct io n to the

am ou n t of the quotas s o a s to a v o id e x c e s s i v e s to c k a c c u m u la

t io n s and the c o s t s of s to r in g the c o m m o d ity and a d m in is t e r in g

the p r o g r a m . • In a d d it io n ? th is e v a lu a t io n m u s t be m a d e w ith in

the c o n te x t of g e n e r a l ly d e c l in in g v a r ia n c e o f ex p o r t e a r n in g s

■ r e v e a le d . i n C hapter III.

A P P E N D IX

145

A P P E N D I X T A B L E I. V a lu e o f c o f f e e e x p o r t i n i n d i c a t e d c o u n t r i e s .

B r a z i l C o l o m b i a C o s t a D o m i n i c a n E c u a d o r E l G u a t e m a l a H a i t i ' H o n d u r a s M e x ic o N i c a r a g u aY e a r R i c a R e p u b l i c S a l v a d o r

- 1000 U . S . 1 9 4 7 - 4 9 d o l l a r s 3- -------------------

1913 _ _ 4 1 , 8 6 0 9 , 9 5 0 ' 817 1 2 , 4 5 0 1 2 , 5 4 0 3 1 , 4 3 0 1 8 , 8 4 0 118 - - 1 0 , 8 9 01914 3 0 4 , 1 2 5 3 6 , 4 6 2 1 3 , 2 0 7 1, 137 9, 050 1 4 , 2 4 0 2 5 , 4 5 0 2 4 , 1 0 0 237 - - 5, 54 01 9 l5 3 5 2 , 8 5 6 3 9 , 8 3 7 7 , 4 0 1 • 1, 088 6, 380 10, 340 2 1 , 2 9 0 9, 300 37 16, 844 4, 1901916 2 6 2 , 2 4 3 3 2 , 5 3 7 10, 251 653 8, 930 1 2 ,2 0 0 2 3 , 6 8 0 11, 630 ■ 88 1 8 ,5 5 3 • 4 , 4 6 01917 1 8 9 ,8 0 4 2 0 , 4 1 5 5, 000 396 4, 920 8, 260 16, 320 8 , 4 4 0 97 1 1 , 7 3 0 2 , 3 9 01918 1 3 8 , 0 8 0 3 3 , 6 1 5 4, 070 809 7, 870 10, 140 1 7 ,4 3 0 13, 180 477 7, 743 4 , 0901919 4 3 6 , 9 8 4 82, 359 6 , 2 8 0 1, 303 . 6, 130 13, 250. 3 1 , 9 0 0 3 4 , 0 8 0 520 1 7 ,1 3 3 8, 6101920 2 3 3 , 9 0 7 3 9 , 5 1 7 9, 4 40 320 3, 97 0 1 1 , 6 3 0 2 2 , 9 8 0 1 5 , 9 8 0 174 7, 032 2, 67 01921 1 9 2 ,1 4 8 ■ 5 3 , 0 8 0 8, 740 350 1 , 3 1 0 8 , 5 3 0 1 9 , 3 8 0 9, 080 029 8 , 5 3 4 4 , 4 3 01922 2 3 4 , 6 9 2 4 9 , 6 0 0 9, 080 936 1 , 5 8 0 1 4 ,6 3 0 2 3 , 6 5 0 1 4 , 1 3 0 125 1 7 ,1 4 9 3. 5 301923 4 0 7 , 0 0 1 6 4 , 9 5 5 . 6, 020 641 1 ,4 7 0 1 3 , 8 5 0 2 4 , 9 3 0 1 8 , 2 6 0 362 1 2 , 2 9 2 12, 0701924 6 5 9 , 2 7 6 1 0 1 , 8 2 0 10, 640 1 , 2 9 9 I , 560. 2 3 , 1 6 0 3 2 , 3 1 0 2 3 , 0 7 0 4 89 1 8 , 0 4 4 "10, 6701925 5 2 3 , 8 1 8 9 6 , 7 7 5 1 2 , 8 5 0 1, 933 2 , 5 2 0 16, 520 3 9 , 4 7 0 26 , 220 518 2 6 , 3 7 5 0, 9 6 01926 4 9 6 , 7 1 3 1 2 3 ,7 9 2 1 6 , 2 9 0 2, 775 2, 600 26, 360 3 0 , 5 0 0 31, 650 792 2 3 , 5 4 3 15. 1601927 4 6 0 , 2 8 0 1 0 4 , 4 8 0 ■ 1 5 , 2 7 0 2, 660 3 , 4 2 0 16, 740 4 1 , 8 4 0 2 1 , 9 6 0 813 2 5 , 6 2 9 7, 8 3 01928 5 0 7 , 7 1 5 1 2 8 ,5 5 2 1 6 , 7 0 0 3, 186 3 , 8 5 0 2 6 , 7 9 0 ‘ 3 8 , 4 5 0 32, 080 1 , 4 4 8 3 3 , 8 5 0 8 , 5 8 01929 4 9 3 , 1 7 9 1 1 9 , 9 6 0 ' 1 4 , 2 8 0 3 , 6 5 4 2 , 4 5 0 1 9 , 4 7 0 3 1 , 5 7 0 1 8 , 3 5 0 915 2 2 , 6 2 4 9, 0201930 3 0 6 , 0 6 4 9 2 , 8 1 2 1 2 ,9 6 0 2, 348 2 , 3 5 0 1 8 , 6 4 0 30, 15 0 1 6 ,2 5 0 612 20, 156 7 , 8 1 01931 • 2 8 6 , 5 6 9 9 2 , 3 6 1 1 3 ,8 8 0 2, 048 2, 060 1 8 , 7 5 0 1 8 ,9 2 0 1 1 , 4 6 0 451 1 4 , 0 6 2 5, 7 4 01932 2 5 0 , 3 1 0 7 8 , 4 9 9 8 , 2 8 0 2, 176 2, 560 9,. 630 1 4 ,6 5 0 10, 020 553 8, 092 2 , 8 3 01933 3 1 9 ,8 5 1 7 6 , 7 1 2 ■ 1 2 , 3 2 0 3, 585 1 , 8 1 0 12, 910 1 1 ,5 4 0 1 4 ,0 9 0 595 14, 285 4 , 3 2 01934 3 2 8 , 9 4 6 9 5 ,0 8 1 11, 070 3, 092 4, 220 1 6 , 8 7 0 2 1 , 2 1 0 1 3 , 2 8 0 627 1 3 ,8 3 7 4, 3 7 01935 3 2 6 ,3 1 7 8 0 , 2 9 2 9, 120 2, 316 2, 640 1 7 , 5 2 0 16, 240 6. 930 301 1 1 ,4 9 6 5, 1601936 3 4 4 ,0 8 3 9 3 , 8 2 9 8, 160 3, 666 3 , 4 3 0 16, 330 1 9 , 2 3 0 1 0 , 5 2 0 417 1 4 ,3 3 7 3 , 4 8 01937 3 5 1 , 1 6 0 9 5 , 8 0 4 10, 660 3, 086 3 , 8 9 0 2 4 , 6 5 0 1 8 , 3 6 0 8 , 4 1 0 661 1 3 ,4 6 1 5 , 3 6 01938 2 3 1 , 7 2 4 9 6 , 2 6 0 8, 700 1 , 8 4 7 2, 200 16, 870 1 7 ,7 6 0 6, 040 291 9 , 9 4 6 3, 6001939 2 4 1 , 4 9 6 9 3 , 5 2 5 8, 270 3, 113 1 ,8 7 0 1 9 ,0 6 0 1 7 , 0 8 0 6 , 6 5 0 446 1 1 , 5 1 0 4. 7 0 01940 1 6 9 ,1 4 1 7 5 , 2 2 1 6, 900 1, 361 1 ,8 5 0 16, 46 0 9 , 5 5 0 3, 180 341 7 , 4 3 0 3. 70 01941 1 9 8 ,8 7 6 8 2 , 4 8 7 8, 010 2 , 4 1 1 2 , 5 8 0 . 13, 740 1 0 . 6 3 0 6, 380 216 9 , 4 9 2 4, 2 0 01942 1 7 2 ,3 3 2 9 0 , 8 4 3 8 , 7 2 0 2, 099 2, 130 2 1 , 5 1 0 1 9 , 7 7 0 4, 650 703 9, 738 5, 2 001943 2 2 5 , 2 5 4 1 3 4 ,1 3 3 10, 530 3 , 5 3 2 2 , 7 0 0 2 2 , 8 0 0 1 8 , 2 6 0 6, 270 636 1 4 ,2 6 6 4 . 5 7 01944 3 0 5 , 0 2 6 1 9 2 , 4 4 8 8 , 0 7 0 . 2, 781 3 , 2 9 0 2 5 , 1 3 0 2 0 , 0 5 0 6 ,5 1 0 625 1 5 , 6 2 5 4. 8 5 01945 3 2 7 , 0 7 3 1 3 2 ,9 5 1 9 , 4 1 0 6, 107 3, 110 2 3 , 6 6 0 2 2 , 5 1 0 1 0 , 9 4 0 821 1 3 ,2 3 1 4. 65 r1946 4 5 2 , 8 9 0 1 8 1 , 7 8 6 1 8 , 3 2 0 6 , 3 1 3 2, 740 2 5 , 0 5 0 2 3 , 5 5 0 10, 670 763 1 5 ,0 8 1 5, 0 0 C1947 4 9 0 , 1 0 0 2 0 4 , 9 0 0 11, 150' 5 , 3 1 8 3, 260 3 7 , 5 3 0 3 3 , 1 6 0 1 2 ,6 1 0 1,251" 1 9 ,8 1 0 5 , 5 2 01948 4 2 6 , 8 7 4 2 2 0 , 3 5 2 1 4 , 3 7 0 6 , 4 5 8 4, 690 35, 320 30, 030 10, 470 1, 171 1 7 ,6 1 2 8 , 3 1 01949 6 1 9 ,7 2 9 2 3 7 , 6 8 4 10, 890 1 0 ,6 3 4 5, 390 46 , 710 36, 700 1 7 ,9 5 0 2, 257 2 6 , 0 0 5 4 , 3 2 01950 8 3 7 , 0 2 3 3 0 6 , 8 6 6 1 7 ,5 0 0 1 2 , 2 9 9 1 7 , 6 0 0 . 5 9 , 7 1 0 50, 970 1 9 , 9 2 0 2 . 9 9 8 3 7 ,2 3 4 1 6 , 7 3 01951 9 5 2 , 3 8 5 320, 612 2 7 , 8 1 0 1 5 , 8 6 6 1 3 , 4 1 0 7 0 , 1 1 0 5 2 , 5 6 0 2 3 , 4 9 0 7 . 4 7 0 4 2 , 1 2 4 16, 5 6 01952 922 , 5 9 9 3 3 5 , 2 1 6 2 1 , 4 4 0 2 0 , 3 5 2 1 8 ,0 0 0 6 8 , 4 0 0 6 3 , 1 1 0 30, 100 7. 679 4 1 , 4 8 2 1 8 , 2 7 01953 9 5 1 ,0 4 8 4 3 0 , 2 4 4 30, 330 2 1 , 5 0 4 1 6 , 5 2 0 6 6 , 8 7 0 5 9 , 6 1 0 2 1 , 8 5 0 9, 790 7 79, 720 1 8 , 6 2 01954 1 , 8 2 0 , 7 7 9 4 7 6 , 2 7 7 30, 300 2 2 , 8 6 2 2 3 , 6 3 0 7 9 , 5 1 0 6 4 , 1 5 0 3 7 , 2 2 0 1 2 ,1 2 1 9 4 . 1 9 9 21, 6 4 01955 1 , 7 2 1 , 9 8 4 4 1 6 , 7 6 6 3 2 , 0 7 0 20 , 889 1 9 ,5 0 0 7 8 , 2 7 0 6 5 , 3 5 0 20, 440 7, 271 9 0 , 8 4 6 23, 7 8 01956 1, 085, 264 341, 721 2 7 , 9 8 0 2 1 , 1 1 7 2 4 , 0 0 0 7 2 , 2 7 0 7 3 , 7 6 0 2 2 , 5 1 0 1 1 ,0 0 9 9 1 , 8 8 7 1 9 , 1 2 01957 6 7 5 , 7 1 8 336, 262 3 1 , 1 5 0 1 8 , 2 6 6 2 3 , 0 0 0 8 7 , 6 9 0 6 5 , 6 5 0 16, 690 9, 504 9 0 , 3 0 2 22, 7 6 01958 537, 121 3 0 5 , 4 6 9 3 8 , 9 0 0 18, 262 2 0 , 5 5 0 6 1 , 2 5 0 6 5 , 3 1 0 . 2 2 , 7 3 0 8 , 5 0 1 6 4 ,5 3 1 18, 9 8 01959 5 6 3 , 4 4 3 3 03 , 613 3 1 , 0 5 0 1 3 , 4 6 2 1 3 ,4 5 0 3 4 , 7 3 0 5 7 , 1 8 0 1 1 , 6 8 0 8 , 9 9 3 5 0 ,1 9 2 10, 60 0I9 6 0 5 3 9 , 9 3 5 2 5 2 , 1 9 7 3 3 , 7 8 0 17, 069 16, 590 5 4 , 9 2 0 5 2 , 9 1 0 1 3 ,1 0 0 8, 940 5 4 , 1 6 6 14, 3 4 C1961 5 3 0 , 9 3 1 230 , 045 3 2 , 3 6 0 1 0 ,7 2 7 1 0 , 6 1 0 5 2 , 4 7 0 4 7 , 3 6 0 1 0 ,0 1 0 6, 726 5 2 .6 1 5 13, 04 01962 4 7 6 , 4 0 5 2 5 4 , 2 6 2 3 4 , 9 8 0 1 4 , 7 1 4 1 5 , 4 9 0 5 5 , 0 0 0 54, 85 0 1 5 , 2 7 0 8 , 4 5 0 5 2 ,7 7 9 11, 4] 01963 5 4 6 , 5 9 0 2 2 1 , 3 4 5 33 , 500 1 3 ,5 8 6 3 3 , 4 6 0 5 4 , 4 3 0 5 7 , 1 1 0 1 1 , 8 2 0 1 0 , 1 5 3 3 6 ,0 1 1 1 2 ,9 5 0

^ D e f l e c t e d b y G. N . P . i m p l i c i t p r i c e d e f l a c t o r .S o u r c e f o r B r a z i l : I . B . G. E . C o n s e l h o N a c i o n a l de E s t a d i s t i c a . O B r a z i l en n u m e r o s . A p e n d i c e do A n u a r i o

E s t a d i s t i c o do B r a z i l . I9 6 0 , p a g . 8 8 .T h e v a l u e o f e x p o r t s g iv e n in c r u z e i r o s w a s c o n v e r t e d to U n i t e d S t a t e s d o l l a r s by u s in g th e o f f i c i a l e x c h a n g e r a t e . In e a r l y y e a r s , 1913 to 1947 , th e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B u l l e t i n w a s u s e d a s t h e s o u r c e .I . M. F . , I n t e r n a t i o n a l F i n a n c i a l S t a t i s t i c s , S u p p l e m e n t to 1 9 6 3 - 6 4 i s s u e s f o r 1948 to 1963.F o r C o lo m b ia : K a t h r y n H . W y l i e . T h e A g r i c u l t u r e of C o l o m b i a . F o r e i g n A g r i c u l t u r e B u l l e t i n N o . 1 , 1942 U n i te d S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , W a s h i n g t o n D. C. , T a b l e 21 , p a g . 64 , P r i c e s 1 9 0 9 - 1 9 4 0 .P a n A m e r i c a C of fee B u r e a u , C o f fe e S t a t i s t i c s . R e l e a s e N o . 11 to 26 , W a s h i n g t o n D. C. F o r v a l u e o f e x p o r t f r o m 1930 to 1963.F o r a l l o t h e r c o u n t r i e s : i n e a r l y y e a r s , 1 9 1 3 - 3 0 , C o lo m bian , p r i c e t i m e s q u a n t i t y e x p o r t e d w a s u s e d ; f r o m 1930 to 1963 , P a n A m e r i c a n C o f fe e B u r e a u S t a t i s t i c s w a s t h e s o u r c e .A l l e a r l y y e a r ' s d a t a w e r e a d j u s t e d b y c o n s t a n t f a c t o r t o m a k e t h e tw o s e r i e s c o m p a r a b l e i n t h e p e r i o d w h e r e t h e y a r e j o i n e d .

146

A P P E N D IX T A B L E II, V a lu e of c o c o a e x p o r t s .

B r a z i l D o m in ic a n E cu a d o r P a n a m aY ea r .R ep ub lic ■

1000 1 9 4 7 -4 9 d o l l a r s a

1913 16, 511 11, 550 26, 1701914 2 1 ,1 9 3 10, 840 2 4 ,7 6 0 — •=*1915 ,31 , 925 1 4 ,5 4 0 27, 370 5 5 , 4 0 61916 2 5 ,3 2 2 1 1 ,9 2 0 2 4 ,3 3 0 1 2 6 ,7 2 31917 20, 729 8, 280 1 5 ,2 2 1 8 0 ,8 6 11918 . 1 5 ,5 6 1 7, 160 1 2 ,2 4 0 55, 5671919 3 5 ,0 0 7 10, 930 18, 810 1 4 5 ,7 7 21920 17, 509 7, 000 16, 750 2 0 7 ,4 0 61921 9, 034 5, 180 8, 910 1 3 5 ,1 9 51922 10, 652 4 , 6 7 0 11, 020 2 2 9 ,3 3 91923 17, 846 3, 560 5, 870 2 2 8 ,5 0 51924 2 2 ,1 0 0 4, 200 9, 300 2 5 2 ,6 1 61925 1 8 ,0 2 6 5, 440 11, 800 1 9 0 ,7 5 41926 21, 928 5, 820 7, 480 5 5 7 ,2 4 31927 3 3 ,4 9 3 10, 850 .11, 280 7 4 0 ,4 1 41928 26, 627 6 ,8 0 0 8, 910 8 4 2 ,9 4 91929 1 8 ,8 8 8 6, 090 4 , 4 6 0 6 1 7 ,7 2 51930 1 5 ,3 5 4 4, 750 7, 240 726 , 6781931 1 1 ,9 8 7 . 4 , 2 0 0 4, 310 5 4 9 ,8 5 41932 • 1 5 ,6 2 4 2, 790 4 , 1 1 0 86, 5601933 1 3 ,7 6 1 2 ,8 5 0 2, 870 510 , 5571934 2 0 ,2 1 2 .3, 740 5, 870 5 4 4 ,6 9 11935 2 4 ,6 7 0 4, 280 4, 380 5 6 2 ,1 5 11936 3 9 ,7 8 4 3, 830 5, 570 7 0 0 ,3 1 51937 3 5 ,1 5 0 5 ,4 6 0 6, 270 1, 4 4 3 , 3471938 2 1 ,4 9 5 3, 030 5, 170 4 0 2 ,9 5 71939 2 4 ,2 7 5 2, 750 4 , 530 3 9 8 ,3 6 61940 2 0 ,4 1 2 3, 150 1, 9 1 0 2 7 6 ,4 9 71941 31, 049 2, 980 3, 750 3 5 1 ,7 5 9l W 2 1 8 ,9 9 1 4, 810 3, 390 2 6 4 ,6 6 41943 2 7 ,5 1 6 4, 280 1, 160 3 2 8 ,7 5 61944 2 4 ,2 0 6 ,3, 640 3, 890 1 7 4 ,1 2 81945 1 7 ,6 2 7 2, 340 5, 050 3 7 ,9 7 71946 4 5 ,7 8 1 9, 300 6, 4 30 2 7 1 ,2 8 71947 66, 213 1 8 ,5 1 0 1 2 ,2 8 0 1 ,4 2 4 , 0501948 5 6 ,7 5 0 18, 390 1 3 ,0 1 0 . 1, 4 4 2 , 876

147

A P P E N D IX .T A B L E 1L . (C ontinued)

1 9 4 9 . 5 1 ,4 4 3 9 , 120 8 , 630 7 6 5 ,4 5 61950 76, 074 . 1 6 ,7 3 0 17,, 790 9 2 8 ,4 3 31951 6 2 ,4 7 9 1 9 ,0 8 0 1 6 ,0 2 0 5-9 4 , 0 5 9 ,1952 36 , 642 1 7 ,4 7 0 1 5 ,0 0 0 92 , 6741953 5 7 ,3 4 4 1 8 ,6 9 0 1 3 ,6 3 0 8 9 ,1 6 01954 1 1 3 ,7 7 4 2 7 ,9 6 0 2 5 ,5 2 0 1 , 5 3 2 , 4 6 71955 . 8 5 ,2 8 8 2 0 ,4 4 0 1 6 ,0 0 0 8 3 8 ,3 2 31956 5 5 ,4 6 3 1 1 ,8 3 0 ' 1 4 ,4 0 0 4 7 1 , 8 5 41957. 5 5 ,8 6 5 1 5 ,1 7 0 1 4 ,8 6 0 7 4 2 ,8 1 11958 6 9 ,5 3 1 2 2 ,3 4 0 1 5 ,4 3 0 8 7 5 ,0 0 01959 _ 4 5 ,3 5 0 1 7 ,2 1 0 1 6 ,7 5 0 5 9 1 ,8 5 2I960 5 2 ,2 2 7 15 j 530 1 1 ,2 1 0 5 8 3 ,3 3 31961 3 4 ,3 8 0 1 0 ,4 6 0 1 1 ,6 5 0 3 8 1 ,1 6 51962 . 1 7 ,7 9 0 9 ,8 6 0 1 1 ,6 3 0 3 5 8 ,0 4 21963 2 5 ,5 6 0 1 0 ,8 1 0 1 4 ,3 1 0 . 3 2 8 ,7 0 7

aD e f la te d b y G» N . P . im p l i c i t p r i c e d e f la to r .

S o u r c e fo r B r a z i l : IB G E C o n se lh o N a c io n a l de E s t a d i s t i c a .O B r a z i l en n u m e r o s . A p e n d ic e do A n u a r io E s t a d i s t i c o do B r a z i l I960 pag . 8 8 .The v a lu e o f e x p o r t s g iv e n in c r u z e i r o s • w a s c o n v e r te d to U n ited S ta te s d o l la r s by u s in g the o f f ic ia l e x c h a n g e r a te . In e a r ly years (1 9 1 3 “ 1947) F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B u l le t in .I. M . F . , ■ In te r n a t io n a l F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s . S u p p lem en t to 1963 - 1964 I s s u e s fo r p e r io d s 1947-63 . -F o r P a n a m a and D o m in ic a n .R e p u b lic : F o r e a r ly y e a r s 1 9 1 3 -1 9 4 7 th e v a lu e i s B r a z i l i a n e x p o r t p r i c e t im e s quantity e x p o r te d .Q uantity dhta w a s ta k e n f r o m F . A . Q. , C a ca o . A R e v ie w of C u r r e n t T r e n d s in P r o d u c t i o n , , P r i c e a n d .C o n s u m p t io n , . C o m m o d ity S e r i e s B u lle t in N o . 27 , T a b le 3, p ag . 78^ 81 , 1955.L M . F*. , . In tern ation a l. F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s , f r o m 1948 to 1963. .... F o r E cu a d o r : R o b e r t Fowler-a>nd G u sta v o ,H.. L o p e z R. The C a ca o In d u s tr y of E c u a d o r . F o r e ig n ,A g r ic u l t u r e R ep . N o . 34 , pag . 2 9 , T ab le 8 , fo r years , ,1913 to 1947 . I. M. IT.' , ■ I n te r n a t io n a l F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s , f r o m 1948 to 1963 . ; ;

148

A P P E N B IX T A B L E III. . V a lu e of B an an a ̂ Exports.

C o s ta E c u a d o r G u a tem a la H ondu ras P a n a m aY ear : R ic a

• * a a « = a e a » ™ - e D « » « a » E a * « = » a e » c m e e K * e o « a c a i a » e = » e = i a n - «*«=i ^ Cl© U S. I" S ^

1948 25, 970 8, 900 26, 810 79, 940 1 4 ,4 0 01949 2 8 ,0 4 0 1 3 ,7 4 0 1 7 ,6 6 0 7 8 ,7 0 0 16, 8101950 . 3 0 ,4 7 0 16, 630 1 8 ,2 7 0 7 8 ,8 2 0 15, 7401951 3 0 ,9 2 0 2 2 ,5 0 0 ! 12, 780 7 8 ,6 7 0 1 4 ,6 7 01952 .33, 860 38, 480 1 0 ,5 0 0 7 1 ,6 7 0 1 1 ,4 5 01953 31, 280 36, 010 20, 190 71, 850 1 4 ,2 7 01954 . 3 3 ,6 0 0 4 4 , 0 6 0 1 7 ,5 7 0 4 9 , 9 2 0 1 9 ,1 7 01955 . 2 8 ,4 1 0 5 3 ,6 3 0 1 4 ,5 4 0 4 1 , 660 3 2 ,4 2 01956 • 2 1 ,2 7 0 4 9 , 500 1 2 ,4 2 0 7 2 ,6 0 0 1 8 ,4 8 01957 25, 720 h s , n o 1 1 ,5 8 0 53, 830 1 9 ,5 0 01958 20, 660 56, 950 1 0 ,2 3 0 5 8 ,7 5 0 1 7 ,1 0 01959 1 4 ,6 7 0 68, 950 1 1 ,3 0 0 4 9 , 3 5 0 18, 09©I960 .15, 360 6 7 ,3 5 0 1 3 ,1 0 0 4 3 , 4 1 0 1 3 ,7 6 01961 , 15, 540 60, 460 1 0 ,3 8 0 4 9 , 7 7 0 15, 0401962 1 9 ,9 6 0 6 5 ,6 0 0 7, 040 5 0 ,7 0 0 1 4 ,9 2 01963 1 8 ,1 9 0 7 8 ,4 5 0 7 ,96© 4 6 , 260 , 1 7 , 1 5 0

■ ^ D efla ted .' by G . N . P . im p l i c i t p r ic e d e f la to r .: .S ou rce: I. M. F . In te rn a t io n a l F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s . - S u p p lem en t to 1 9 6 4 -6 5 i s s u e s .

149

A P P E N D I X T A B L E IV. P ro d u c t io n of c o ff ee in in d ic a ted c o u n t r ie s .

Y ear B r a z i l C olom b ia C ostaR i c a

Do m in ic a nRepu bli c

E cuad or E l G u a tem a la S al vador

- Th ou sand m e t r i c tons - -

Haiti H ondur as M e x ic o N ica ra g u a N o n -L a t i n A m e r ic a n P r o d u c t io n

1913 740 6 1 . 2 1 2 .3 . 1 2 . 4 3 6 . 8 3 2 . 4 1 .8 1. 0 _ _ 9. 0 1171914 882 61. 9 12. 0 . 2 3. 0 37. 5 3 4 . 8 2. 1 1. 2 9 . 0 1771915 822 67. 6 1 0 . 4 . 2 3. 0 37. 5 42 . 0 2. 1 1. 2 21. 0 . 9. 0 671916 973 7 2 . 6 1 0 .4 . 1 3. 0 3 7 . 5 4 0 . 8 1 .8 1. 1 18. 0 9. 0. 1071917 777 6 2 .8 1 0 .4 . 1 3. 0 . 37. 5 4 0 . 8 1 .8 1. 1 18. 0 9. 0 971918 966 6 8 .9 . 1 0 .4 . 2 3. 0 37. 5 40 . 8 1 .8 1. 1 18. 0 9. 0 801919 ■ 559 101. 0 1 0 .4 . 2 3 . 0 . 3 7 . 5 40 . 8 1. 8 1. 1 18. 0 9. 0 2911920 457 8 6 . 4 6 . 9 . 1 3. 0 3 7 . 5 4 0 . 8 1. 5 1. 1 15. 0 12. 0 1611921 884 1 4 0 .7 7. 0 . K 3. 0 62. 5 4 0 . 4 1. 8 1 . 4 18. 0 1 0 .8 1261922 ' 784 1 0 5 .8 1 0 .4 . 2 3. 0 67. 6 42. 0 1. 8 1. 2 18. 0 12. 0 1531923 622 123. 7 12. 0 . 1 1 .8 44 . 6 4 5 . 6 2 2 . 2 1. 5 22. 2 13 .8 1471924 908 1 3 2 .9 18 .2 . 2 3. 5 67. 7 42 . 0 20. 3 1. 5 20. 3 17. 0 1911925 890 1 1 6 .8 15. 0 9 . 9 3. 6 44 . 5 4 0 . 9 24. 1 . 8 18. 0 15. 0 1961926 923 11 5:5 1 5 .7 1 1 .8 4 . 2 69. 3 45 . 5 20. 7 . 9 24. 1 17. 7 1901927 967 1 4 1 .2 9. 7 1 1 .9 5 . 9 49. 1 43 . 0 32. 0 1. 3 20. 7 9 . 8 2101928 1 ,6 5 4 159. 6 1 8 . 0 12. 7 7 . 2 5 0 . 2 4 1 . 2 31. 6 1 . 4 32. 0 18. 0 2311929 831 170. 1 1 4 .4 1 3 .9 9 . 2 73. 0 42 . 1 2 9 . 8 1. 5 31. 6 1 4 .4 1961930 1 , 7 3 6 1 9 4 .6 2 3 . 5 14. 0 7. 3 65. 0 45 . 2 34. 3 1 .8 42 . 1 22. 1 - 1991931 994 214. 0 2 3 . 5 13. 6 9 . 5 75. 0 45 . 8 26. 3 1. 1 39. 1 17. 7 1071932 1 ,7 1 3 2 0 2 . 9 23. 0 1 4 . 2 8. 3 48 . 0 55. 0 23. 2 1. 5 37. 9 16. 2 1911933 993 2 1 7 . 4 1 8 .5 •15.8 8. 0 64. 0 44 . 9 41 . 7 1 .9 3 2 . 9 . 18 . 0 2491934 1 ,7 7 8 2 3 0 . 4 27. 8 21. 8 7. 0 58. 0 58. 1 34. 0 1. 9 43 . 7 13. 7 2231935 1 ,0 8 9 210. 1 19. 1 1 9 .7 1 4 .4 59. 0 5 0 . 4 1 9 . 0 - 1. 9 3 6 . 8 1 4 .7 2401936 1 ,2 5 6 2 5 1 . 8 2 4 . 2 1 8 .5 1 2 .5 57. 3 56. 1 36. 1 1. 1 4 1 . 9 18. 5 2661937 1 ,5 8 1 261. 6 2 1 . 3 26. 5 13. 8 71; 8 57. 8 24. 8 1. 5 6 3 . 5 13. 1 2961938 1 ,4 1 5 267. 6 2 6 . 5 22. 3 14. 1 6 3 . 8 56. 5 25. 1 1. 1 5 9 . 8 1 5 .8 3031939 1 ,3 9 8 2 6 5 . 0 25. 0 28. 9 13. 7 67. 5 5 3 . 8 2 9 . 3 1. 0 5 7 . 2 14. 3 299

,1940 1, 157 267. 0 2 0 . 2 2 1 . 4 1 2 .9 67. 6 5 2 . 4 C / 16. 2 1 . 4 54. 8 1 7 .4 .3211941 1, 002 285. 6 2 4 . 5 1 9 .5 1 4 .6 67. 1 49 . 9 16. 2 1. 0 5 2 . 4 15. 3 2381942 962 3 2 9 . 3 2 4 .3 21. 6 1 1 .8 5 8 . 4 4 9 . 8 21. 6 1. 3 54. 1 12. 7 2241943 830 3 1 7 . 0 26. 2 2 0 . 2 7. 6 64. 9 5 1 . 8 2 2 . 4 2. 1 52. 3 1 2 .7 2231944 922 3 3 2 . 0 22. 1 17. 7 1 4 .4 6 7 . 4 59. 1 15. 6 2. 0 60. 1 12. 0 225 •1945 687 3 2 8 . 7 2 6 . 7 18. 6 17. 6 62. 3 59. 9 2 4 . 0 2 . 7 54. 7 13. 1 2201946 835 3 4 5 . 7 1 5 .8 2 0 . 9 1 3 .5 62. 1 53. 5 2 4 . 8 3 . 8 5 6 . 9 12. 3 2591947 917 369. 5 2 1 . 5 2 0 . 6 8. 0 57. 7 55. 7 35. 7 1 .9 5 5 . 4 1 1 .8 2711948 947 3 4 6 . 5 2 7 . 2 18. 0 11. 6 49. 7 5 0 . 7 33. 6 3. 2 53. 2 10. 0 2861949 1, 037 3 6 8 . 9 1 8 .2 22. 0 2 0 . 0 90. 2 56. 7 35. 0 10. 8 59 . 0 14. 3 6161950 1, 068 3 3 7 . 8 2 3 . 5 , 28. 0 11. 6 5 9 . 8 5 5 . 6 40 . 0 1 2 .5 65. 6 1 9 .8 3111951 .1,071 3 0 2 . 3 20. 1 25. 0 2 3 . 4 71. 7 5 4 . 2 38. 3 1 3 .9 68. 1 18. 7 3511952 1, 080 4 0 2 . 7 21. 1 2 8 . 9 21. 6 5 8 . 9 63. 0 35. 0 14. 0 70. 8 20. 7 3891953 1, 125 3 8 4 . 3 33. 0 26. 5 2 4 . 2 78. 1 58. 3 37. 0 15. 1 87 . 7 17. 1 4191954 1, 111 403 . 1 2 2 . 8 31. 6 22. 6 59. 9 6 2 . 8 4 3 . 8 18. 0 8 4 . 9 20. 3 4701955 1, 037 377. 1 3 3 . 8 " 26. 3 3 5 . 2 76. 7 65. 3 30. 7 16. 3 93 . 0 2 6 . 6 5231956 1 ,3 7 0 335. 1 2 5 . 3 32. 6 22. 6 72. 6 66. 5 4 0 . 8 15. 5 88 . 3 24. 3 6081957 979 3 6 5 . 2 3 3 . 8 3 1 . 9 2 9 . 4 91. 3 73. 6 28. 0 1 7 .9 9 7 . 3 2 3 . 2 6161958 1 ,4 0 9 4 6 8 . 4 45. 6 3 5 . 8 3 0 . 4 84. 0 81. 0 33. 0 18. 6 121. 9 21. 8 6711959 1, 696 46 2 . 0 . 5 1 . 4 3 2 . 4 3 2 . 3 9 2 . 8 80. 0 27. 0 18. 2 102. 0 22. 0 749I960 2 , 6 4 6 480 . 0 5 1 . 3 3 4 . 8 4 5 . 0 98. 1 96. 0 ’ 2 1 . 8 2 4 . 0 122. 0 2 3 . 8 8021961 - 1 ,7 9 7 4 68 . 0 7 0 . 3 34. 5 51. 0 9 2 . 9 91. 5 3 0 . 8 2 2 . 5 114. 0 27. 0 8641962 2, 152 4 50 . 0 6 8 . 4 36. 1 5 3 . 5 96. 6 100. 5 4 3 . 5 21. 5 1 2 6 .0 2 2 . 7 9301963 1 , 7 1 6 46 8 . 0 63. 0 34. 1 5 5 . 5 1 1 3 .4 1 0 9 .8 40 . 5 27. 9 159. 0 27. 7 1, 130

Sou rce: In sti tu te cubano de E s t a b i l i z a c i o n d e l ca fe . Se gunda C o n fe r e n c ia P a n a m e r ic a n a de l Cafe . La Habana, Agosto 1938 pag . 77, 99. (E a r ly y e a r s 1 9 1 3-1937)F . A. O. The w o r ld co f fe e E c o n o m y C o m m o d it y B u ll e t in S e r i e s No. 33 R o m e 1.961. T a b le s A l , pag . 4 5 - 4 6 (1930-1 960) F . A . O . Month ly B u ll e t in of A g r ic u l t u r a l E c o n o m i c s and S t a t i s t i c s . Vo l . 13, No. 11, N o v e m b e r 1964

150

A P P E N D IX T A B L E V. P r o d u c t io n of c o c o a in . in d ic a te d c o u n t r i e s »

B r a z i l D o m in ic a n . E cu a d o r P a n a m aY ea r : R ep u b lic

ac=»reaEai«=a«=e*B=ior.eaB«a»«e«=>«=«=i=»<*«a«=aee=» | b.O UL S cLXXCl - Ivd- O t r 1 C t ̂Q XX S

1913 29. 8 19. 5 4 2 . 9 - “1914 4 0 . 8 2 0 . 7 44 . 7 *=• ~1915 . 45 . 0 20. 2 3 5 . 4 . 11916 4 3 . 3 21. 1 4 9 . 6 . 31917 . 55. 6 -23. 7 46 . 4 . 31918 41 . 9 1 8 .8 .3 7 .7 . 21919 62. 6 2 2 . 4 38. 0 . 41920 66. 9 2 3 . 4 39. 8 . 91921 35. 5 26. 6 .40 . 7 . 91922 58. 9 , 1 8 .9 4 0 . 4 1. 21923 57 .4 ; 19. 8 29. 6 1 .61924 67. 9 23. 1 .3 0 . 7 . 1. 81925 59. 8 .23. 5 30 . 5 2. 01926 72. 2 20 . 1 17. 8 2. 51927 7 1 . 2 26. 5 19. 9 :2 31928 7 3 . 3 1 9 .3 20. 6 3. 11929 64. 1 21. 3 14. 9 2. 81930 68. 7 2 0 . 7 17. 5 4 . 11931 76. 7 25. 6 , 1 4 .4 4. 31932 1 0 4 .4 17. 4 14. 9 . 71933 100. 1 19. 9 10. 3 4 . 61934 107. 9 22. 9 . 15. 9 4. 31935 127. 1 28. 3 18. 1 4 . 81936 126. 7 . 18. 2 1 8 .9 - 4. 31937 . 1 1 8 . 9 21. 2 - 1 8 .8 .5 . 31938 141. 8 30. 7 17. 6 4 . 01939 134. 8 .30 . 3 1 4 .8 5. 31940 128. 0 .2 4 .4 8. 9 . 4 . 51941 . 132. 3 19. 9 14. 6 , 3 .01942 108. 9 21. 3 1 2 .8 . 2. 01943 148. 3 25. 1 17. 8 2. 81944 116. 5 24. 7 1 3 .8 ,1. 61945 119. 7 24. 0 1 6 .4 . 61946 1 2 1 .7 2 6 . 2 1 6 .6 2. 21947 . 1 5 3 .4 33. 0 15. 8 2 . 91948 99. 6 3 0 . 0 1 6 ,0 3. 0

151

A P P E N D IX T A B L E V . (C ontinued)

-194-9 125. 0 24. 0 19. 5 3. 0 ., 1950 161. 5 32. 7 20. 7 2 , 4 .

1951 136, 1 31 . 8 26, 8 1 .51952 106. 7 3 1 . 6 20, 1 1. 2.

- 1 9 5 3 96 . 9 38. 0 2 4 , 4 1 .4 -, 1 9 5 4 1 2 3 ,1 .3 0 . 0 29. 9 1. 8-

1955. 1 5 7 ,9 36 . 0 25. 3 1 .9,1956 ■ 1 6 7 .8 . 33 . 2 26 . 3 1 .2

-1-957 147. 0 3 6 . 0 2 5 . 0 1 . 5 .1958 147. 0 3 5 , 4 3 1 . 9 1 .51959 1 9 0 .0 3 3 . 0 33. 7 1 . 9 -I960 1 7 7 .8 4 0 . 0 39. 1 1. 31961 ...' 163. 2 35. 2 4 1 . 8 1 .41962 , 1 5 5 .9 3 5 . 0 4 0 . 0 . 1 .21963 1 4 0 .4 37. 0 4 2 . 0 . 8

S o u r c e : E„ A . G. », C o co a , , A R e v ie w o f C u rren t T r e n d s in Produq%L t i o n , . P r i c e and. C on su m p tio n . G d m m od ity S e r i e s . , B u l l e t in No. < 27 T ab le . 1 pag. 7 3 - 7 5 .

152

A P P E N D IX T A B L E VI. E x p o r ts of b ananas in in d ic a te d c o u n t r i e s .

Y ea rC o s taR ic a

E cu a d o r G u a te m a la "Honduras P a n a m a N o n - L at: A m e r ic a

1 , 000 s te m s J cs» B=r ■■ e=» aea *=»

1947 1 0 ,0 9 9 2, 956 1 4 ,8 8 4 1 5 ,2 1 1 6, 4 80 1 1 ,0 9 11948 .1 5 ,0 6 2 4 , 206 12, 050 15, 326 9, 055 1 2 ,6 7 41949 1 5 ,9 9 5 5, 915 7, 100 - 1 3 ,3 4 9 9. 261 1 4 ,1 0 91950 14, 973 8, 732 :6, 897 13, 140 8, 035 16, 5701951 1 5 ,2 5 4 1 0 ,8 6 7 5, 265 1 3 ,2 2 8 7, 835 1 9 ,1 8 81952 .16, 380 1 8 ,6 7 5 3 ,9 0 8 1 3 ,0 8 8 7, 361 21, 9811953 1 5 ,6 8 3 1 7 ,9 1 7 1 0 ,0 1 8 ;17, 368 8, 282 2 8 ,0 2 01954 1 6 ,3 2 0 21, 202 8, 544 12, 905 8, 265 2 8 ,2 6 31955 1 4 ,5 2 2 26, 896 5, 011 1 0 ,9 2 9 12, 130 29, 9851956 1 0 ,2 4 7 26, 128 .8 ,2 1 2 1 9 ,6 7 0 11, 062 2 8 ,4 3 51957 . 1 1 , 9 2 2 .33, 500 7, 123 1 7 ,7 7 5 1 2 ,7 8 7 26, 6091958 1 3 ,2 9 7 3 8 ,0 5 2 7, 617 21, 534 .11, 780 2 6 ,4 2 21959 9 , 4 0 2 .4 4 ,8 3 8 8 , 8 3 2 1 9 ,2 7 6 12, 811 26, 949I960 . .1 2 ,0 2 3 4 7 , 4 3 % . 7 ,4 5 3 1 5 ,8 5 % .. 11, 609 ; 3 6 j 8241961 10, 123 4 4 , 5 0 6 . 6, 946 18, 995' 11, 949 2 4 ,5 9 61962- 1 2 ,8 7 6 48 , 823 3 ,6 0 2 16, 845 1 1 ,0 2 2 28, 9401963 - 11 ,514 . 5 7 ,5 0 0 5, 192 1 4 ,9 6 4 1 3 ,0 3 7 2 8 ,5 2 8

a One s t e m equals ' 50 pou nd s.

S o u rce : F o r e ig n lA g r lc u l t u r e Servileei; U n ited S ta te s D e p a r tm e n t ofA g r ic u l tu r e , F o r e ig n .A g r ic u ltu r e Gd-rculaa:,, W a sh in g to n D„ C.F D A P O ct. 11, 1957;. A u g u s t 12, 1958; S e p te m b e r 18, 1959; S e p te m b e r 1 9 6 1 .th r o u g h '1963.

LIST O F R E F E R E N C E S

LIST OF R E F E R E N C E S

Blau-g Gerda-, " I n t e r n a t i o n a l .C o m m o d ity Arr-ange-ments , 11 F o o d and - A g r i c u ltu r e --Or g a n iz a t i on of the ‘U nite d N ati o n s , , M onthly B u lle t in of A g r ic n l tn r a l E c o n o m ic s a n d - S t a t i s t i c s , . V o l . .1 2 ,

. N o . . 9 , . R o m e , S ep t . 1.963.

C o m m it te e f o r .E G onom ic D e v e lo p m e n t 9. C o o p era t io n fo r -P r o g r e s s ... . in ..Latin - A m e r i c a -,. N ew Y o r k , . A p r i l 1.961.

. F ood and A g r i cu ltu r e 'O r gani zi a ti on of the •United N a t io n s . C a c a o ,, AR e v ie w of C urr en t T r e n d s in p r o d u ct io n , - P r i c e -and

. .. C ons u m p tio n , . C o m m o d ity - S e r i e s B u l l e t in N o . . 2 7 , . T a b le s 1 --3,R o m e , 1.955.

- . , T h e . W o rld Coffee: E c o n o m y , C o m m o d ity S e r i e s ,B u l le t in :N o . 3 3 , T a b le s A I , . A H , . R o m e , 1961.

. F ir c h - , , R o b e r t S. , .S ta b i l i z a t io n of the U nited S tates . E c o n o m y a n d .. . S ta b il i ty of F a r m I n c o m e , . U n p u b lish ed P h . , D . . D is s e r t a t io n , * .

U n iv e r s i t y o f C h ic a g o , 19-63. .

. . . . , "A R e a p p r a is a l of .A g r ic u l tu r a l E x p o r t s .a n d .E c o n o m ic. . D e v e lo p m e n t , 11 J o u r n a l of F a r m E c o n o m i c s , . V o l . 4 .6 , ,N o . 5 , .

D e c e m b e r , 1.964.

F l o w e r , . R o b e r t and Gustavo: H. . L o p ez ,R .., . The Cacao' I n d u s tr y of E c u a d o r , U . , S. D e p a r tm e n t of A g r ic u l tu r e , . F o r e ig n A g r ic u l tu r e R e p o r t , . , N o . 34 , - T a b le .W a s h in g to n , . D. C..1949. , .

F o r e ig n . .A gricu ltura l S e r v i c e , . U » , S . . D e p a r tm e n t ■ o f . A g r icu ltu re ,,.. . . . . F o r e ig n . A g r ic u l tu r a l C ir c u la r - F D A P , . W a s h in g to n , , D. C , , .

Sep t. 1 9 6 4 , . O c to b er 1957 , F e b . 2 - 6 4 , , N o v . 1964 .

. 'G r u b e l , , H e r b e r t G .,, . " F o r e ig n .E xchange. E a r n in g s and P r i c e , S t a b i l i z a t io n S c h e m e e , " T h e c A m e r . , E c o n . R e v . ,

. - y o l . f : lH V , .N 6V ..4 ,-June 1964. ''V

I B G E . C o n se lh o N a c io n a l E s t a d i s t i c a , O B r a s i l e m nu-m eros A p e n d ic e do iA nuario E s t a d i s t i c o do - B r a s i l , . R io de J a n e i f b , , 19B0:

153

154

In s t i tu te Cubano de E s t a b i l i z a c io n d e l CafeC Segunda C o n fe r e n c ia P a > n am ericana .d e l Cafe^ H avana, A u g u st 1938.

In te rn a t io n a l M o n e ta r y Fund, In te r n a t io n a l F in a n c ia l S t a t i s t i c s , S u p p lem en t to 1 9 4 6 -6 5 i s s u e s , N ew Y ork, 1965«

M acb ean , . A .. E . , ^ P r o b le m s of S ta b i l iz a t io n P o l i c y iu U n d e r d e v e lo p e d C o u n tr ie s , ( I l lu s tr a te d f r o m a study of ju te in P a k is ta n ) , n O xford E c o n o m ic P a p e r s (N ew S e r i e s ) , V oL 14, N o. 2,. June 1962. .

N u r k s e , R a g n a r , '1T ra d e F lu c tu a t io n s and B u ffer P o l i c i e s o f L o w - In c o m e C o u n t r i e s , n r e p r in te d in .A g r icu ltu re in E c o n o m ic D e v e lo p m e n t , by C a r l E ic h e r and L a w r e n c e W itt, M c G r a w - H ill B ook Co. , N ew Y ork , 1964,

P a n A m e r ic a n C o ffee B u rea u , A nnual C offee S t a t i s t i c s , R e le a s e N o . . 11 .through: 27, W ash in gton , D» . C. , 1945 to 1963.

P r e b i s h , R aul, nC o m m e r c ia l P o l i c y in .th e U n d e r d e v e lo p e dC o u n tr ie s , M The A m e r . E co n . R e v . , V o l. 49 , M ay 1954.

S a m u e ls on, P a u l A . n S p atia l P r i c e E q u i l ib r iu m and L in e a r P r o g r a m m in g , n The A m e r . E co n . - R e v , , V o l. -XLII,No. 3, June 1952.

U nited N a t io n s , I n s ta b i l i ty in Exp o r t M a r k e ts of U n d e r d e v e lo p e d C o u n tr ie s , D e p a r tm e n t of E c o n o m ic A f fa ir s , E /2 Q 4 7 /E C A ,

' N ew Y ork , 1952.

S u b c o m m it te e on A m e r ic a n R e p u b l ic s A f fa ir s of the C o m m it te e on F o r e ig n R e l a t i o n s , . U. S. S en ate , U nited S ta te s - L a tin . A m e r ic a n - R e la t i o n s , Senate D o c u m e n t N o, 125, 86th C o n g r e s s , 2nd S e s s io n , W ash in g ton , D. C. , I9 6 0 .

W ic k s e r , V ern o n D. , nIn te rn a t io n a l C o lla b o r a t io n in the World^s C offee In d u stry , 11 F o o d R e s e a r c h T n s t i tu te S t u d ie s , V ol. IV, N o. 3, 1964.

W y lie , K athryn H. , The .A g r icu ltu re of C o lo m b ia , F o r e ig nA g r ic u l tu r e B u l le t in -No. 1, U. S. D e p a r tm e n t o f A g r ic u l tu r e , W ash in gton , D. C. , 1942.

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