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Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble Climate-Chemistry simulations for the past 40 years
Volker Grewe and the DLR/MPI Team
Institut für Physik der AtmophäreDLR-Oberpfaffenhofen
Martin Dameris, Veronika Eyring, Fabian Mager, Michael Ponater, Tina Schnadt, Andrea Stenke - DLR Oberpfaffenhofen
Benedikt Steil, Christoph Brühl, Patrick Jöckel - MPI- Mainz
Marco Giorgetta, Claudia Timmreck, MPI-Hamburg
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
ECHAM4.L39(DLR) = E39 Atmosphere circulation model
Global spectral model with semi-Lagrangian advection of water vapour,
cloud water and tracers
Resolution: T30, 39 layers, top layer centered at 10 hPa (30 km)
Parameterizations of radiation, clouds, precipitation, convection, diffusion
CHEM = C Chemistry-Module (family concept)
Transported species: H2O, CH4, N2O, HCl, H2O2, CO, CH3O2H, ClONO2,
HNO3+NAT, ICE, ClOx, NOX, OX
37 species and 107 gas-phase reaction
Methane oxidation, PSC formation, 4 heterogeneous reactions on PSCs
Parameterization of dry/wet deposition, lightning and surface emissions
Interactively coupled at every timestep
E39/C Climate-Chemistry Model
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Coupling of Dyamics and Chemsitry in E39/C
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Simulation of the Earth‘s atmosphere from 1960 to 2000
Simulation is based on climate chemistry model E39/C with additional forcings:
• Emissions of NOx, CO, CO2, N2O, CH4, CFCs, as observed or estimatd by
IPCC
• QBO nudged in tropical stratosphere
• Volcanoes regarded (Agung, El Chichon, Pinatubo) for chemistry and
radiation
• Observed sea surface temperatures (Hadley-GISS)
• 11 year solar cycle
• No other forcing, free running climate chemistry model
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Total Ozone [DU]
• High variability > than in time-slices • Solar cycle in tropics
• Ozone hole starts 80s
• Global ozone -15 DU
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Tropospheric ozone column (DU)
• High variability
• Global increase: 4 DU
• Small effects on SH
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Simulated evolution of cloud to ground lightning 1960 to 2000
El Nino events
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble 50 hPa temperature
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble total ozone
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Ensemble tropospheric total ozone
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Lightning
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Summary
• CCM/CTM Models are ready for transient simulations• ACCENT modelling acitivity: Ensemble simulations
Capability of models (-> Comparison to measurements) Attribution perhaps possible?
TemperatureTropospheric Ozone Column ?
BUT
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Fully coupled CCM simulations require additional diagnostics in orderto separate various effects.
E.g. NOx and ozone tagging diagnostics
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Approach: Tagging of NOy and ozone molecules
1st step: For each source i=1, ... , n (n=8) define a NOy tracer (Xi)2nd step: For each NOy tracer define an ozone tracer (Yi)
and an ozone tracer (Yn+1) for ozone production by O2 photolysis
photolysis Oby causedion concentrat O
8)n1,..,(i iemission by
causedion concentrat O and NO ,NO
loss Ozone ,photolysis Oby and
NOby production Ozone loss, NO ,
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O and NO ,NO Simulated ,,
231
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11
Attribution of ozone increase to NOx emissions
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Tropical past ozone changes 30S-30N20
0-50
0 h
Pa
500-
1000
hP
aOzone tracer mass
• Lightning most important
source for tropical ozone
• In UT: stratospheric
intrusions also important
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Interannual variability in the tropics
• Solar cycle effects stratospheric ozone
leading to weak UT ozone variations (5%)
• Stratospheric O3 and lightning important
for inter-annual variations
• Industry and land transportation
responsible for trends
Upper troposphere
Lower troposphere