Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

ETReC 2007 George C. CraigDLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

Folie 2 > Vortrag > AutorInstitut für Physik der Atmosphäre

THORPEX-COPS Relevance Large scale influence on local high-impact weather

JapanJapan AustriaAustria

11 Aug.

1 Aug.

Hovmöller (time-longitude) diagram of the 250-mb meridional wind component (ms-1) for the period 28 July - 14 August 2002 and the latitudinal belt 40-60º N.

A Rossby wave train was excited by cyclogenesis off Japan, followed by rapid downstream development of high-amplitude Rossby waves, culminating in extreme flooding in central Europe.

Figure reproduced from THORPEX International Science Plan

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ETReC 2007 Goals

1. Predictability - quantify relative roles of synoptic environment and local scales (link COPS)

2. Sensitive Regions - summer season, where timescales are shorter, moist physics important

3. Observing Systems - test potential of cost effective targeted observations (link EURORISK PREVIEW)

4. Impact of observations through global and regional forecast chain (link D-PHASE)

Folie 4 > Vortrag > AutorInstitut für Physik der Atmosphäre

ETReC 2007 Strategy and Timeline

ATReC 2003 timeline

T-5 days select target region(subjective)

T-4 days compute sensitive regions(imprecisely defined)

T-3 days targeted observations(limited sampling)

T-2.5 days improved forecast(modestly)

ETReC 2007 timeline

All times

fixed target regions

T-3 days compute sensitive regions(focused by short lead time)

T-2 days targeted observations(better coverage)

T-1.5 days improved forecast(significantly?)

Folie 5 > Vortrag > AutorInstitut für Physik der Atmosphäre

Proposed ETReC 2007 Target Regions

COPSD-PHASE

MEDEXCYPRIM

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ETReC 2007 Observing Systems1. Targeted additional Radiosonde, AMDAR, ASAP

EUCOS proposedoperationalobserving system

Folie 7 > Vortrag > AutorInstitut für Physik der Atmosphäre

ETReC 2007 Observing Systems2. Airborne wind and water vapor lidars (DLR Falcon)

ECMWF analysis for 19 June 2002, 6 UTC, with contours of geopotential height and specific humidity (color coded) in 400 hPa, overlaid with a DLR Falcon flight route for mapping the stratospheric intrusion.

Folie 8 > Vortrag > AutorInstitut für Physik der Atmosphäre

Sensitive Region Verification Area

ETReC 2007 Sensitive Regions

Methods

MeteoFrance - Singular Vectors

ECMWF - Moist Singular Vectors

Met Office - Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter