Presentation

by

Wg Cdr Ajey LeleResearch Fellow

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES

NEW DELHI, NOV 13, 2007

“…21st Century Space Industry is driven

more by faith than by profit…”Economist June 2004

Space Industry and

Promising Technologies

ScopeScope

“A macro view of current and perceivable future of Space Industry and suggest that independent industry players should attempt to invest into Transformational Technologies”

Here technology validation is not attempted.

StructureStructure

• What industry is doing and Futuristic trends

• Space Industry should look for innovative technological options

• Near-Space Technology could be one of them

• Industry need to invest in other beneficiary technologies

Journey of 50 yearsJourney of 50 years…• Phase I (57-75): Robotic & human exploration of

space, Skylab & Apollo missions

• Phase II (76-02): Astronomy, Navigation, Telecommunication, Star Wars…

• Phase III (07-..): ISS, again Moon…then Mars but commercial angle is to increase multifold

…the forecast isnext 50 years are going to be

historic

What private space industries should invest in?

Business CategoriesBusiness Categories…• Telecommunication

• Commercial space launch facilities

• Commercial satellite imagery

• Commercial satellite positioning

• Space Tourism

Key TrendsKey Trends…. • Dramatic growth over past decade

• Major business associated with satellite services

• Bulk revenue- telecommunication sector

• During the 1990s, the commercial space industry flourished

• Recent disasters, cost overruns, and post-9/11 security measures have increased military ties to civilian space programmes

Where Where ““Space WorldSpace World”” is goingis going…• Navigation is a thrust area

• Moon missions- Japan, China

• Moon landing and manned moon missions

• Mars is very much on the plate

• Space assets offer asymmetric advantages to the militaries

• ASAT

Major Futuristic TrendsMajor Futuristic Trends…

EMM Economy Space Tourism Military Utility

EE--MM--M EconomyM Economy

• 21st century aim is to go to moon to stay

• Helium 3 could be the main attraction

• To develop EMM economy there is a need to create the LEO anchorage and industrial port element

• Moon could be outsourced and Mars could become state aim

Space Tourism IndustrySpace Tourism Industry• This idea was a joke in 1990s

• Today, more than 100 people are ready to pay $ 20 million price tag for space trip

• By 2030-5 to 10 million passengers/year may visit LEO

• 50,000 to 100,000 people staying in ‘Orbit hotels’

Military RequirementMilitary Requirement

• Navigation, communication, reconnaissance…needs are going to increase

• Ever-changing threat scenario will put additional demands on space assets

• ‘Militarization’ of Space is a reality

States likely to back investment-intensive commercial space projects

So how do self & investor fundedself & investor fundedinnovators compete against

government subsidized systems?

Should they concentrate on LEO sector Should they concentrate on LEO sector and also look for economical and and also look for economical and innovative solutions?innovative solutions?

Could Transformational Technologies offer an alternative?

• Near-Space technology

• Nano-technology

What is “Near-Space” ?

Space/Outer SpaceSpace/Outer Space

• Altitude of 100km is boundary between atmosphere and space

• Touch an altitude of 80km and you qualify as an astronaut

NearNear--Space/FarSpace/Far--airair

• An area between 75,000feet (23km) agl and 62.5 miles (100km)

• Few stretch the upper limit to even 200/300km

• Ideally outer limit should be just below an envelop where satellites remain safe in orbit

Types of NearTypes of Near--Space PlatformsSpace Platforms

• Balloons/Free floaters

• Blimps (non-rigid airships)

• Zeppelins (rigid airships)/Dirigibles

• Composite Hull High Altitude Powered Platform (CHHAPP)

• Stratellite

A Prototype A Prototype StratelliteStratellite

AdvantagesAdvantages• Offers cheaper and quicker access to space like

conditions

• Offer inexpensive solutions to communications over specific regions

• Crafts fly above the weather

• Vulnerability to enemy fire is not a big concern

Commercial UsageCommercial Usage• Oil and gas producers in west Texas and Oklahoma

use them for the purposes of collection and transmission of information

• The basic use is as an alternative to cellular network

• Offers most economical bandwidth

Technology StatusTechnology Status• Amateurs

• The US Air Force (USAF)

• Johns Hopkins University doing research

• Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)

Industry InvestmentsIndustry Investments

• Lockheed Martin- $150 million contract

• Space Data Corp-Combat SkySat

• StartXX Holding AG-developing stratospheric platforms

Future scopeFuture scope….• USAF Planning to augment GPS assets with

Near-Space (Nav sector business)

• Research is on to develop a craft capable of carrying 1000 tons of load

• Near-space bay could be established

Technology Relevance for MilitaryTechnology Relevance for Military

• Launch on demand possibility exists

• Stay & Stare persistence for C4ISR

• Proximity to war fighter, survivability, flexibility

• Great utility for operational or tactical commanders

LimitationsLimitations• Still an evolving technology-technical

challenges are not completely known

• Ultraviolet radiations/ ozone/ Jet Streams could be a problem

• Lack of ability to recharge air vehicles power source

• Violation of international space laws???

Space Space VsVs NearNear--SpaceSpace

• Satellites-Footprint-Age-Overflight

• Near-crafts-Cost-Persistence-Responsiveness -Footprint-Resolution

NanoNano--TechnologyTechnology

Expected to revolutionalise space industry

Private Industry should do timely investments…

Usage of NTUsage of NT• Satellites use thruster rockets to maintain

their orbits

• Nano-materials, such as nanocrsytallinetungsten-titanium diboride-copper composite, are potential candidates for enhancing these ignitors’ life and performance characteristics

Uses of NTUses of NT Contd

• Space vehicles need high performance, multifunctional materials

• It should sustain high or low temperature and high or low pressure

• Nano-particles in polymer composites have an edge being better radiation protectors

Uses of NTUses of NT Contd

• Space scientists are trying to adopt nano-materials as alternative materials to the conventional materials

• Lighter nano-porous materials like aerogels

Uses of NTUses of NT Contd

• In outer space primarily solar power is used as a power source for various activities

• Need to reduce the weight of such solar cells at the same time increase their efficiency

• Luminescent dye sensitized nano-particle based solar cell arrays could become an option

Supersonic Combustion RamjetSupersonic Combustion Ramjet

• Getting into space is very expensive

• Future business lies into affordable space transportation

• Innovative ideas ranging from scramjetpropulsion to space elevators, but some of those ... are very far in the future

• Scramjet shows a promise

ScramjetScramjet• The oxygen needed by the engine to combust is

taken from the atmosphere passing through the vehicle, instead of from a tank onboard

• The craft becomes smaller, lighter and faster

• Speeds till Mach 10 are achieved

Space TransportationSpace Transportation• Space transportation systems use the conventional

chemical rocket systems for their propulsion

• Cost per Kg of payload is $12 to 15,000

• The cost needs to come down to $ 500 to 1000/Kg

• Scramjet could be an option

• Space applications yet to be clearly identified-Space launch vehicles may benefit from having a scramjet stage

Platform

Total System

Rocket Science

Near-Space

Nano Scramjet

ConclusionConclusion• Billions of dollars investment is required for

conventional satellite technology

• Only few states and their space industries are having monopoly

• Success in near-space technology could make the technology available to wider community

• Space Industry need to look at various innovative options