Date post: | 26-Mar-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | devin-mcdermott |
View: | 218 times |
Download: | 1 times |
Institute for Ecological Economics
Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems
Thomas MaxwellRobert Costanza
University of Maryland
Institute for Ecological Economics
Motivation
• Unbridled expansion of human enterprise.
• Depletion of natural life support systems.
• Resource depletion -> global tensions.• Interacting complex systems.• Tremendous uncertainty.• Potentially disastrous consequences.
Institute for Ecological Economics
Integrated Problem Solving
• Vision– State of the world.– Possible future worlds (postitive &
negative).• What to tweak?
– Expected outcomes of policy adjustments.• Methodology
– Hard problem science.– Adaptive management.
Institute for Ecological Economics
Science in Service of Society
• Comprehensive systems approach– Conceptual pluralism– Problem driver– Multiscale– Integrated modeling
• Links with policy– Modeling as consensus building tool– Communicating uncertainty
Institute for Ecological Economics
Collaborative (Visible) Modeling
• Realistic models require multiple teams• Modelers typically not computer scientists• Stake holders must be included• Communication to a wide audience
Institute for Ecological Economics
Three Stage Modeling Process
• Scoping models– Consensus building
• Research models– Understanding dynamics
• Management models– Exploring scenarios
Institute for Ecological Economics
Modeling Collaboratory
• Constructivist learning.• Paradigm expansion.
– (narrow,linear,static) ->– (broad,nonlinear,dynamic)
• Conflict resolution.• Consensus building.• Collective decision making.• Develop management scenarios.
Institute for Ecological Economics
Supporting Collaborative Modeling
• Graphical modeling tools• Modular model development• Transparent high performance
computing• Integrated data access• Integrated visualization• Variety of formalisms and frames
Institute for Ecological Economics
Graphical Modeling
•Model viewed and manipulated graphically.
•Opens model development to non-programmers.
•Facilitates rapid development of models.
•Enforces modeling standards.
•Facilitates collaboration in model development.
•Graphical representation serves as a blackboard.
Institute for Ecological Economics
STELLA Model
Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling
Framework
Institute for Ecological Economics
CavernSoft
Collaborative
Environment
Environmental Hydrology Applications Team
Inputs to multiple models
Environmental Modeling Workbench
Integrated wirelessSensor web
CoupledBio-HydroSimulation
Spatial Modeling Environment
Institute for Ecological Economics
Two types of modules
• Ecological Modules– No general theory.– Primary focus on modeling.– Examples:
• Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton
– Modules developed in Stella/SME.
• Physical Modules– Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes).– Primary focus on computation.– Examples:
• hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics.
– Modules developed externally and linked to SME.
Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling Environment
• Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench• Includes integrated support for:
–Icon-based unit module development
–Module archiving and reuse
–Integration of multiple spatial representations
–Distributed computing
–Web-based modeling & simulation•Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations.
–Data access and visualization
–Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm).
Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial Modeling Environment
STELLA
PowerSim
SME ModuleEditor
ModuleConstructor
SMML Module Library
ModuleRepository
ModuleBuilder
SimulationDriver
Code Generator
HPC
JavaPortal
Unit model Spatial modelGraphical modeling
Institute for Ecological Economics
Module Specification Language
•Declarative
•Modular
•Fully visible structure & dynamics
•Supports encapsulation and specialization
•Separate universal specs / site-specific configs
•Platform and operating system independent
•Facilitates extensive simulation services
Institute for Ecological Economics
Simulation Module Markup Language
• XML-Based Declarative Language
• Simulation Module Specification
• Major Classes:
–Module: Reusable component.
–Variable: Simulation atomic object.
–Action: Performs computation or data IO.
–Event: Orders the execution of Actions.
–Frame: Defines a spatial topology.
Institute for Ecological Economics
<atom name="CONS_BIOM" id="CONS_BIOM" status="private" type="state" > <port type="input" name="CONS_INGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_RESPIRATION" />
<dynamic event="integrate" type="code" > <code>
( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) </code> </dynamic>
<port type="input" name="P1_CONS_IC" /> <port type="input" name="CELL_SIZE" />
<dynamic event="init" type="code" > <doc>
CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES </doc> <code>
( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) </code> </dynamic>
</atom>
SMML Example
Institute for Ecological Economics
<?xml version="1.0"?>
<!DOCTYPE compound SYSTEM "http://iee.umces.edu/SME/dtd/smml.dtd">
<compound id="PLMD_module" name="PLMD_module" >
<compound id="CONSUMERS_module" name="CONSUMERS_module" location="CONSUMERS_module.xml" >
<port type="output" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="output" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="output" name="CI_DETR" /> ... </compound>
...
<link name="c__0" origin = "GLOBALS_module.CELL_SIZE" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.CELL_SIZE" />
<link name="c__1" origin = "DETRITUS_module.DET_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DET_AVAIL" />
<link name="c__2" origin = "DOM_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" />
</compound>
SMML Example
Institute for Ecological Economics
Typical State Variables
• Examples of some typical state variables:– (Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus – Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow)– Detritus– Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass– Consumers– Deposited Organic Matter– Phytoplankton– Epiphytes
Institute for Ecological Economics
Agent Based Modeling in SME
• Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes.• SME-Swarm integration:
– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme
• Swarm classes serve as wrappers for:– SME model.– SME grid layers.– SME spatial variables.
• Two-way remote data transfer.• Built on SNI simulation server architecture:
– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni
Institute for Ecological Economics
Multi-Grid Library•Integrates multiple spatial representations
• Implements space in SME
• Major Components include:–Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element.
–Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links.
–Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids.
–Link: Connection between Cells.•Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity.•Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings.
–Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame.
–Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats.
Institute for Ecological Economics
Spatial grid partitioned over processors
Highly parallel application
Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing
Fully transparent to user
Distributed Processing
Institute for Ecological Economics
Model Calibration toolkit
• Built on MPE toolkit:– http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/
• Calculate performance measure (MPE)– Estimate of match between model & system.– Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc).
• Search parameter space to maximize MPE.– Evolutionary and gradient searches.
• Params, tests, & searches configured in SME.
Institute for Ecological Economics
SME Java Portal
•Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources
•Web-enabled ( using java servlets )
•Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility )
•Java applet <-> Java servlet <-> C++ apps
•Portal interfaces include:
–Workspace management
–Module development
–Model configuration
–Simulation initialization, control, & visualization
Institute for Ecological Economics
WorkSpace Manager
Institute for Ecological Economics
Documentation PanelDocumentation of selected command
Model PanelHierarchical View of model objects
Associated commands as boxes
Command PanelStructure of selected command
Property Panel Command Arguments
Configuration Manager
Institute for Ecological Economics
Parameter Editor
Edit Simulation Parameters
Spreadsheet format
Institute for Ecological Economics
Simulation Control
Control Execution
View Model Structure
Trace Dependencies
View Model Equations
Configure Visualization
Institute for Ecological Economics
Associates DataSets with Viewers
Creates Viewers
Manages DataSets
ViewServer Control Panel
Institute for Ecological Economics
2D Animation Viewer
2D Animation Control
Dynamic and manual rescaling
ColorMap editor
Data viewer (point/spreadsheet)
Export as GIF or JPG
Institute for Ecological Economics
3D Animation Viewer
Dynamic Landscapes
Variable1 -> Altitude
Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled
navigation
Institute for Ecological Economics
Image Spreadsheet
Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons
Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc.
Institute for Ecological Economics
View spatial data Attach to vis panels
Follows animation Export to Stat
packages.
Numerical Spreadsheet
Institute for Ecological Economics
• Links components: – Circulation (OM3) – Ecology (SME)– Atmospheric coupling
Environmental Hydrology Applications Team
Chesapeake Bay Model
Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team
Collaborative Virtual Environment
Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director
Institute for Ecological Economics
Example Applications
• Everglades Landscape Model– http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/
welcome.htm
• Patuxent Landscape Model– http://iee.umces.edu/PLM
• Baltimore Ecosystem Study– http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter
• Illinois TES Models– http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/
Institute for Ecological EconomicsEnvironmental Hydrology Applications Team
Environmental Hydrology
Institute for Ecological Economics
SME Distribution
The SME home page:
http://iee.umces.edu/SME3
Includes:– Overview.– Technical documentation.– Publications.– Source code (C++ and java).– Links