Institute for Transport StudiesFACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT

Assessing the potential contribution of new technologies to sustainable urban passenger transportProfessor Tony May

SMRT Professor 2007

The potential contribution of new technologies

•New technologies for urban passenger transport

•The CityMobil project

•The technologies in more detail

•The three demonstrators

•Predicting the impacts of city-wide applications

•The modelling approach

•The planned predictive tests and evaluation

•The next steps

Automated transport systems

•Cybercars•Driverless vehicles, electronic

guideways

•Personal rapid transit•Driverless vehicles,•Segregated guideways

•High tech buses•Electronic guideways•Driven on city streets

•Dual mode vehicles•Automated following•Driven on city streets

•Advanced city cars•Small, low emission•With ADAS facilities

The CityMobil project

•An Integrated Project within the EC FP6 programme

•Funded by EC DG Research

•€11m funding; 40% on demonstrators, 60% research

•Led by TNO (Netherlands)

•With 28 partners from 12 countries

•Five years from May 2006

•www.citymobil-project.eu

CityMobil: Objectives

•To achieve more effective organisation of urban transport

•With more rational use of motorised traffic

•Less congestion, pollution, accidents

•Higher quality of life

•Better integration with spatial development

•Through the application of new technologies

•For passengers and freight

•Drawing on past European research

•On new technologies: Netmobil (www.netmobil.org)

•On land use and transport strategies: LUTR (www.lutr.net)

CityMobil: Project structure

Cybercar Outline•Small automated vehicles

•Capacity 4-6 people, also larger 10-20 person vehicles, able to carry freight

•Rubber tyres operating on conventional infrastructure

•Electric propulsion

•Fully autonomous operation

•Or able to use information from traffic control, infrastructure, users

•Using separate infrastructure or shared space

•Able in theory to interact with other traffic, but currently limited to low speeds (< 10 km/h) in pedestrian areas

•User target: alternative to buses, walking; low mobility; freight

Personal Rapid Transit Outline•Four to six seat automated taxi

•Light weight to reduce infrastructure costs and power requirements

•Separate light weight guideway with little or no interaction with other traffic or pedestrians

•High manoeuvrability permits integration into current buildings and infrastructure

•Available on demand (“public transport that waits for you”)

•Station to station routeing; no intermediate stops; off-line stations

•Operating speeds of around 40 km/h

•Automated guidance, merging and diverging

•Electric propulsion (battery, linear motor)

•User target: alternative to taxis, buses, walking

High Tech Bus Outline•Equivalent to a conventional bus (40-70 seats)

or light rapid transit (70-150 seats)

•Rubber tyres, operating on conventional road infrastructure

•Electric or low emission diesel powered

•Dual mode, with driver, permitting extended use on conventional bus routes

•Uses conventional routes and stops, as for bus services

•Can operate on exclusive lanes or shared E-lanes

•Electronic or optical automated guidance and following

•Driver assistance under automated guidance

•User target: public transport replacing conventional bus and car

Dual Mode Car Outline•A-size

•Derived from conventional cars

•Hybrid propulsion

•> 30 km electric range

•<100 CO2 g/km

•Pollutant emission: 50% regulation

•Automated Guidance (with driver’s supervision) in E-lanes

•Fully automated guidance and interoperability with cybercars

•ADAS systems: collision avoidance, speed limiting, turning assistance

•Intelligent Speed Adaptation & Route Guidance

•User target: private, public (advanced car sharing)

Advanced City Car Outline•Sub-A size

•Max. speed: 80 km/h

•Electric/Hybrid propulsion

•120/30 km electric range

•<80 CO2 g/km

•Pollutant emission: 50% regulation

•Intelligent Speed Adaptation and Route Guidance

•Safety levels compatible with ordinary traffic

•Environment friendly materials

•Comfort and accessibility to cater for reduced mobility

•Mass production technologies

•User target: private, public (car sharing)

Demonstrations and city studies

•Three major demonstrators

•Cybercars: Rome

•PRT: Heathrow

•High Tech Buses: Castellon (Spain)

•A series of showcases

•Two week demonstrations to increase public understanding

•Daventry (UK), Trondheim (No): Cybercars

•La Rochelle (Fr), Genoa (It): Advanced City Cars

•Predictive studies of four cities

•Desk studies of two or three more cities

•A Reference Group of 22 cities across Europe

The Rome demonstrator

•Cybercar service linking car park to new exhibition centre

•Basic characteristics

•Total route length: 1617 m

•1 roadway with 2 lanes

•Roundabouts at either end

•12 stops (max 100m from parking) with automatic doors

•Six vehicles

•Regular headway service making all stops

•12 emergency exits (maximum distance:70m)

•Control centre and depot

•Potential for more flexible service later, subject to Ministry approval

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NORTH ENTRANCE

EAST ENTRANCE

CTS DEPOT

MAIN PEDESTRIAN PATHS

CTS ROUTES

EMERGENCY EXITS

CTS STOPS

CTS FACILITIES

CONTROLCENTRE

The car park layout

TAVOLA 3 – PARCHEGGIO P1 CONRETE CTS

The Heathrow demonstrator

•PRT system linking long stay car parks to new Terminal 5

•A pre-trial for Heathrow wide application

•To replace all shuttle buses

•Using ULTra technology

•Battery operated 4 seat vehicles

•Light weight guideway

•System specification

•16 vehicles

•Station to station service (no stops)

•On demand, low maximum waiting time

•Opening early 2009, after 12 months with shuttle buses

The Heathrow network

The prototype vehicle

The prototype vehicle

Station layout on the test track

The Castellón demonstrator

•High Tech Bus corridor

•From university to city centre

•And subsequently along the coast

•Automated guideway in central section

•Using optical guidance

•Driver-operated on some sections of route

•Electric vehicles

•First section open in 2008

The Castellón network

The Castellon vehicles

The optical guidance system

The Daventry showcase

Future scenarios: objectives and work packages

•Principal objective:

•Assessing how automated transport systems

•Fit into scenarios for urban transport

•Contribute to sustainability

•Work Packages

1.State of the Art Report

2.Context and application scenarios

3.Predictive models and case studies

4.Business case models

5.Guidelines for safety, security and privacy

Future Scenarios:Progress to date

•WP2.1

•State of the Art Report completed

•WP2.2

•Context scenarios completed

•With input from two rounds of Delphi survey

•Application scenarios completed

•Covering both passenger and freight

•Assessing applicability for different parts of a city

•City Application Manual

•Concept being developed for discussion

Specification of context scenarios

Mixed predictability

Low influence Mixed influence High influence

High predictability

3 macro elements 6 macro elements 5 macro elements

2 macro elements 4 macro elements 3 macro elements

Low predictability

1 macro element 7 macro elements

The high influence macro elements

•High predictability•Population ageing; Share of urban population

•Growing congestion; Growing road safety concerns

•Growing air pollution, noise and global warming

•Medium predictability•GDP growth; Investment in automated technologies and interactions between them

•Increased energy efficiency

•Low predictability•Fuel prices

•Awareness of global warming and sustainability concerns

•Revitalisation of inner city centres; Land use planning

•Transport/ICT infrastructure; Transport pricing and taxation; Urban freight terminals

Passenger mobility concepts

Application scenarios:principal passenger applications

•Cybercars•Public transport in inner city*

•Public transport feeder in low density areas*

•Personal Rapid Transit•Public transport in inner city*

•Shuttle from parking facility

•High Tech Bus•Dedicated lanes on radial corridors*

•Dual Mode Vehicles•Dedicated E-lanes on corridors, networks*

•Advanced City Cars•Permitted vehicles in city centres

The City Application Manual

•Designed to guide cities considering new technologies

•Potentially based on Decision-Makers’ Guidebook

•Possible outline:•Scenarios

•Identifying suitable options

•Estimating patronage

•Illustrative predictive results

•High level appraisal

•Illustrative appraisal results

•Barriers and ways of overcoming them

•Guidance on detailed design

•Possible micro-simulation examples

•Planned for late 2008

Future Scenarios:Progress to date

•WP2.3

•Predictive strategic models

•MARS model selected

•Four representative application cities selected

•Models virtually complete

•Investigative micro-simulation models

•To support MARS model

•By providing information on access, wait, in-vehicle, egress time

•And impacts on other modes, and operating costs

•Predictive tests in four cities

•Testing programme virtually finalised

•To be completed by October 2007

Future Scenarios:Progress to date

•WP2.4 •Business case model

•Being developed currently

•Focusing on business and transport cases

•To be tested in four modelled cities

•WP2.5•Certification guidelines

•Guidelines due in November 2007

•Strategies to overcome political, legal and administrative barriers

•First categorisation of barriers complete

•Further work in 2008

•Guidelines for safety, security and privacy

•To be developed later

Task 2.1.1 Contribution of new technologies (TNO)

Task 2.2.1 Visioning of the future (CSST)

Task 2.2.2 Passenger application scenarios (TNO)

Task 2.2.3 Freight application scenarios (CSST)

Task 2.2.4 City application manual (TML)

Task 2.3.1 Identify requirements for analytical tools (ITS)

Task 2.3.2 Review of potential models and information sources (DLR)

Task 2.3.3 Model development (ITS)

Task 2.4.1 Literature review (TRG)

Task 2.4.2 Co-ordination with site selection (TRG)

Task 2.4.3 Co-ordination with the evaluation plan (DITS)

Task 2.4.4 Generic economic analysis tool (TRG)

Task 2.5.1 Review phase (SINTEF)

Task 2.5.2 Definition phase (SINTEF)

Task 2.5.3 Production phase (TNO)

context context

Influence city choice & outputs for evaluation

Background for business models (city typology)

Influence city choice for surveys & use review of barriers

Scenarios to be modelled

context

Focus for business models

Model requirements

Methodology

Methodology

Model tests

Task 2.3.4 Model application (ITS)

The role of the predictive tests

•To assess the likely contribution to urban transport policy objectives of each of the four technologies

•If applied at a significant scale

•In representative European cities

•To contribute to an ex ante evaluation of these technologies

•To complement ex post evaluations of specific applications

•Cybercars in the new Rome exhibition centre

•PRT in London Heathrow

•High tech buses on a corridor in Castellon, Spain

•A series of smaller showcase applications

The focus of the predictive tests

•Four cities

•Selected to be reasonably representative of different city types in Europe

•With commonly specified policy tests and appraisal in all four to permit comparison of the potential for each technology in each city

•But with additional tests of city-specific options and appraisal weightings

•The four cities

•Almere (NL) (250k): a new city expanding to 400k

•Gateshead (UK) (300k): part of a 1,100k polycentric conurbation

•Trondheim (NO) (200k): a smaller monocentric city

•Vienna (AT) (1,600k): a major monocentric city

Specifying the CityMobil tests: inputs

•Context scenarios

•For 2015, 2030, 2050

•High influence macro-elements

•Medium and high growth

•And appropriate complementary policy instruments

•Application scenarios

•Vehicle and mobility concepts (supply)

•Urban configurations (demand)

•Evaluation requirements

•Transport patterns

•Social, Environmental, Economic and Financial impacts

Context scenarios

•High influence macro-elements: medium and high trends to 2035

•Population ageing

•Fuel price increases

•Increased fuel efficiency

•Urbanisation

•Inner city revitalisation

•High influence complementary policies

•Land use planning

•Traffic control and ICT applications

•Reallocation of road space

•Pricing: fares, parking, roads

Application scenarios:applications to be tested

•Cybercars

•Public transport in inner city

•Public transport feeder in low density areas

•Personal Rapid Transit

•Public transport in inner city

•High Tech Bus

•Dedicated lanes on radial corridors

•Dual Mode Vehicles

•Dedicated E-lanes on corridors, networks

Complementary measures

Measure categories High impact measures

Land use planning City centre development 20% greater than that currently in city plans

Transport and ICT Priority for new modes at all traffic signals (area-wide)

Traffic engineering solutions

Re-distribution of existing road space to new vehicles on all new mode routes, and a car free city centre

Transport pricing Inner city road pricing cordon, am peak only, €5 charge per day

PT fare reductions of 20% over the 30 year period

Parking fees to increase by 50% over the 30 year period

The range of models

•Sketch planning land use and transport models

•Provide the high level impacts and interactions

•Can conduct large numbers of tests rapidly

•But do not provide detailed performance characteristics

•(Macroscopic transport models)

•(Mesoscopic network models)

•Microscopic network models

•Can describe system performance for input to high level model

•Using a combination of sketch and microscopic models

The MARS model

•A very fast land use and transport interaction model (c1 minute per test)

•Works at a high spatial aggregation level (typically 30 – 50 zones)

•Two person groups (person in household with / without a car)

•Two trip purposes (commuting / other)

•Two time periods (peak and off-peak)

•Four modes of transport (Slow, Bus, Rail, Car)

•Includes feedback loops between land use and transport systems

•Adaptation speed: transport system – 1 year; land use system – 5 years

•Trip generation using the constant travel time budget theory

•A dynamic model, generating forecasts typically over 30 years

Institute for Transport StudiesFACULTY OF EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT

MARS-Model description

Demographic transition and growth model

Car ownership model

External scenarios

Transport policyinstruments

Policy instruments

Land use policyinstruments

TOD model

Transport model

Transport sub model

Housing developmentmodel

Employment location

Household locationmodel

Land use sub-model

-use

Objective Functions:• User benefits• Operator benefits• Investment costs• Changes land

patterns• ....

Causal Link Diagrams in MARS

Commute tripsby car

Speed by car

Attractivenessby car

+

-

B1-

Commute costby car

-

Attraction

+

Workplaces Population+ +

Fuel cost

+

-B3-

Total commutetrips

Employedpopulation

+

+

Car availability Car ownership

+

+

Commute costother modes

+

Time in carcommute

-

-

Parking searchtime

+

+

Attractiveness ofother zones -

Total commutetime

+

Time percommute trip

+

+

Time for othertrips

-

-

Time per commutetrip by other modes

-

+B2-

+

B4+

A typical MARS output (CO2 emissions)

The role of micro-simulation

•To obtain parameter values for

•Access time, waiting time, in-vehicle time, egress time

•Impacts on other modes (where relevant)

•Operating costs

•All for different configurations and service levels

•Focusing on

•Cybercars and PRT: one model

•Dual mode vehicles: two models

•High Tech Buses to be based on existing studies

Microsimulation: the effects of dual mode vehicle use

The planned sequence of tests

•All conducted for four cities

•For the period 2005-2035

•For medium and high growth scenarios

•Do nothing (specified by each city)

•Each of five application scenarios, defined to be as consistent as possible across the four cities

•Alone

•With an agreed set of complementary measures

•City-specific applications as resources permit

•22+ tests for each city = 88 tests to be compared

The planned tests for each city

Exogenous trend applications

Medium growth High growth

Do nothing M0 H0

New technologies With

complementary

policies

No

complementary policies

With

complementary

policies

No

complementary policies

Cybercar (inner city) MW1 M1 HW1 H1

Cybercar (PT feeder) MW2 M2 HW2 H2

PRT MW3 M3 HW3 H3

High tech bus MW4 M4 HW4 H4

DMV (city wide) MW5 M5 HW5 H5

The evaluation framework

•Multi-criteria based using outcome indicators

•With additional intermediate outcome indicators

•Designed to be applied consistently across all elements of CityMobil to the extent that is feasible

•For the predictive tests:

•Standard set of MCA outcome indicators available from MARS

•Common set of objective weights across all cities

•And city-specific weights to assess sensitivity

•Standard set of intermediate outcome indicators to understand performance

•All results for whole city and for a defined inner city area

The evaluation framework:Outcome indicators

•Social•Accessibility by all modes and by non-car modes

•Accessibility in low income zones

•Accident numbers

•Environmental•Energy consumption and CO2 emissions

•NOX and PM10 emissions

•Change in urban area

•Economic•Average delay in person hours

•Average annual travelling costs

•Economic and financial cost benefit ratios

•Economic vitality index

Environmental Sustainability

EconomicSustainability

SocialSustainability

Comprehensive Sustainability

The evaluation framework:Intermediate indicators

•Transport•Total trips made

•Total passenger kilometres

•Mode shares

•Vehicle occupancy for automated modes

•Average travel time

•Average waiting time

•Average delay

•Effective system capacity

•Financial•Investment costs

•Operating costs

•Revenues and subsidies

The next steps

•All four models available by December

•Do nothing tests and review in January

•Principal testing programme to June

•Interpretation of results and discussion with cities in July

•Report of results in September

•Outputs used

•For testing the Business Case Model

•As input to the City Application Manual

•Final review of results and methods in early 2011