Institutional Equities IOC 2QFY20 Result Update Reuters: IOC.NS; Bloomberg: IOCL IN Upgrading to Accumulate as bad results priced in We have raised Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) target price (TP) by 18.8% to Rs147 based on revised FY20E-FY21E and new FY22E and upgrade the rating from Sell to Accumulate as we believe that the poor 2QFY20 results are priced in, considering that it is down nearly 10% in the last six months. The stock is likely to find support at CMP as it is trading at close to its book value and offers dividend yield of 5%. We also see prospects of 21% EPS CAGR over FY21-22E on the beaten down base in FY20E after our sharp 29% cut in FY20E following the steep 83%/58% decline in 2QFY20/1HFY20 PAT.IOC’s 2QFY20 result was a big miss vs. street and NBIE estimates as GRMs crashed to US$1.28/bbl vs. our estimate of US$6.69/bbl. This was due to inventory loss of Rs11.78bn and fx loss of Rs11.35bn – which we did not consider in our 2QFY20E (as these are difficult to estimate). Normal GRMs have come in at US$3.99/bbl, which is comparable with our GRM estimate. Standalone PAT came in at Rs5.63bn vs. street estimate of Rs37bn and NBIE estimate of Rs55.8bn. Going forward, management is banking on normalized GRMs based on likely improvement in spreads and higher petrochemical earnings from one of the twin-train new polypropylene (PP) units that started operations last quarter. Management is also hopeful of capping gross debt at current levels of Rs800bn barring any setbacks or increase in LPG/SKO subsidy dues from the government. Reported 2QFY20 standalone EBITDA crashed 47.2% to Rs35.7 YoY. This was due to the weak refining and petrochemical margins. The refining and “others” segments incurred losses of Rs20bn and Rs16.6bn, respectively. Petchem EBITDA halved from Rs15.6bn to Rs7.74bn. Marketing EBITDA was also down from Rs42.1bn to Rs38.13bn, which management attributed to the normalization of margins from the highs enjoyed last year. Volume across all its verticals remained steady. There was a marginal dip in refining volume due to planned shut-downs at three of its refineries. The refinery volume may show a similar trend in 2HFY20 as the company has to take shut downs in all its remaining refineries (other than those completed in 1HFY20) in stages over the next two quarters in the last mile hook up with the Bharat VI fuel upgradation projects underway at these units. Marketing volume declined a tad as a result of weak demand that is normal during the monsoon season, according to management. The company is banking on a pick-up in marketing volume in the coming months to drive segment earnings as there is little room to expand unit margins. Petchem volume was down 32% YoY because of the prolonged shut down in the PTA plant which resumed operations in 2QFY20 after being out of operation from year beginning. Segment revenue was down 40% and EBITDA margin was down 495bps at 23.05%. The company expects the performance to improve with the restart of the PTA plant and the new PP plant at Paradip commencing operation. The effective income tax rate came in at 33% as the company did not opt for the lower tax rate of 25.17%. Management stated that this would be reviewed by the end of FY20 based on the relative merits of the new tax regime vs the current one, based on considerations like the MAT credit available for the IOC and its ongoing as well as future capex plan. ACCUMULATE Sector: Oil and Gas CMP: Rs143 Target Price: Rs147 Upside: 3.3% Amit Agarwal Research Analyst [email protected]+91-22-6273 8145 Key Data Current Shares O/S (mn) 9,414.2 Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 1,342.9/18.9 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 171/116 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 14,786,240 Price Performance (%) 1-M 6-M 1-Y IOC (4.0) (9.7) 0.6 Nifty Index 4.8 1.3 14.6 Source: Bloomberg Y/E March (Rsmn) 2QFY19 2QFY20 Ch YoY % 1QFY20 Ch QoQ % 2QFY20E Var. (%) Net sales 1,320,348 1,116,897 (15.4) 1,315,125 (15.1) 1,221,866 (8.6) Cost of goods 1,099,705 961,619 (12.6) 1,125,260 (14.5) 1,005,709 (4.4) Contribution 220,643 155,278 (29.6) 189,865 (18.2) 216,156 (28.2) Employee benefits expenses 37,061 22,335 (39.7) 23,881 (6.5) 25,133 (11.1) Other expenses 115,962 97,220 (16.2) 82,484 17.9 90,532 7.4 EBITDA 67,620 35,722 (47.2) 83,500 (57.2) 100,491 (64.5) EBITDAM (%) 5.12 3.20 (192.0) 6.35 (315.0) 8.22 (503.0) Depreciation 18,091 20,975 16.0 20,929 0.2 21,179 (1.0) Other income 10,407 6,481 (37.7) 5,396 20.1 10,407 (37.7) Interest expenses 11,878 13,083 10.1 15,091 (13.3) 15,091 (13.3) Reported PBT 48,057 8,145 (83.1) 52,877 (84.6) 74,629 (89.1) Reported Tax 15,588 2,511 (83.9) 17,833 (85.9) 18,784 (86.6) Consolidated PAT adjusted 32,469 5,634 (82.7) 35,044 (83.9) 55,845 (89.9) NPM (%) 2.46 0.50 (195.0) 2.66 (216.0) 4.57 (406.6) Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research 4 November 2019
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Institutional Equities
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Reuters: IOC.NS; Bloomberg: IOCL IN
Upgrading to Accumulate as bad results priced in We have raised Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) target price (TP) by 18.8% to Rs147 based on revised FY20E-FY21E and new FY22E and upgrade the rating from Sell to Accumulate as we believe that the poor 2QFY20 results are priced in, considering that it is down nearly 10% in the last six months. The stock is likely to find support at CMP as it is trading at close to its book value and offers dividend yield of 5%. We also see prospects of 21% EPS CAGR over FY21-22E on the beaten down base in FY20E after our sharp 29% cut in FY20E following the steep 83%/58% decline in 2QFY20/1HFY20 PAT.IOC’s 2QFY20 result was a big miss vs. street and NBIE estimates as GRMs crashed to US$1.28/bbl vs. our estimate of US$6.69/bbl. This was due to inventory loss of Rs11.78bn and fx loss of Rs11.35bn – which we did not consider in our 2QFY20E (as these are difficult to estimate). Normal GRMs have come in at US$3.99/bbl, which is comparable with our GRM estimate. Standalone PAT came in at Rs5.63bn vs. street estimate of Rs37bn and NBIE estimate of Rs55.8bn. Going forward, management is banking on normalized GRMs based on likely improvement in spreads and higher petrochemical earnings from one of the twin-train new polypropylene (PP) units that started operations last quarter. Management is also hopeful of capping gross debt at current levels of Rs800bn barring any setbacks or increase in LPG/SKO subsidy dues from the government.
Reported 2QFY20 standalone EBITDA crashed 47.2% to Rs35.7 YoY. This was due to the weak refining and petrochemical margins. The refining and “others” segments incurred losses of Rs20bn and Rs16.6bn, respectively. Petchem EBITDA halved from Rs15.6bn to Rs7.74bn. Marketing EBITDA was also down from Rs42.1bn to Rs38.13bn, which management attributed to the normalization of margins from the highs enjoyed last year.
Volume across all its verticals remained steady. There was a marginal dip in refining volume due to planned shut-downs at three of its refineries. The refinery volume may show a similar trend in 2HFY20 as the company has to take shut downs in all its remaining refineries (other than those completed in 1HFY20) in stages over the next two quarters in the last mile hook up with the Bharat VI fuel upgradation projects underway at these units.
Marketing volume declined a tad as a result of weak demand that is normal during the monsoon season, according to management. The company is banking on a pick-up in marketing volume in the coming months to drive segment earnings as there is little room to expand unit margins.
Petchem volume was down 32% YoY because of the prolonged shut down in the PTA plant which resumed operations in 2QFY20 after being out of operation from year beginning. Segment revenue was down 40% and EBITDA margin was down 495bps at 23.05%. The company expects the performance to improve with the restart of the PTA plant and the new PP plant at Paradip commencing operation.
The effective income tax rate came in at 33% as the company did not opt for the lower tax rate of 25.17%. Management stated that this would be reviewed by the end of FY20 based on the relative merits of the new tax regime vs the current one, based on considerations like the MAT credit available for the IOC and its ongoing as well as future capex plan.
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
4 November 2019
Institutional Equities
2 IOC
On retail competition and reforms, the company believes that new entrants will find it challenging to manage the supply chain logistics and volatility in margins. Further, PSUs as well as new players are free to fix their own retail prices. IOC may face some attrition in market and is taking steps to remain competitive, though the specifics of management strategy were not shared. We believe that IOC’s refining assets in the interior locations, especially in the North gives it a competitive advantage in supply chain logistics for marketing, especially in auto-fuel retailing in towns and cities located away from the coastal locations in Northern and Central India. It also has one refinery on the west coast and two on the east coast (three including subsidiary CPCL) to source its product requirements for the coastal markets and nearby highways. Risks: Downside risks from i) volatility in GRMs and currency ii) lower than expected volumes in all segments iii) govt. policy changes that may hamper pricing or margins iv) increase in competition in retailing could hurt margins more than our estimates v) requirement to fund CPCL for refinancing its debt and working capital if refining margins fall below our estimates.
Valuation
We have revised earnings to adjust FY20E based on the sharp decline in 1HFY20, improved assumptions over FY21E and introduced FY22E on slightly tempered assumptions vs FY21E. Based on this we get a Sept 21E EPS of Rs19.26. This results in 29% decline in FY20E EPS that will reverse to CAGR of 21% over FY21-22E. Following this we have raised our TP by 18.8% to Rs147 based on our SOTP-based valuation from our previous PE based TP of Rs124. The change in valuation method is to capture the value proposition of different segments, each of which has different market dynamics and risk profile - Refining & Marketing and Petchem segments on EV/E multiple and the pipeline segment on DCF method as it offers steady annuity-like cash flows.
If we value the stock on PE at 7.7x (10% discount to 5 year median as previously), the valuation comes to Rs148.
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research, Note: # EV/E is implied for pipelines and total value
Exhibit 2: Stock performance chart %
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
(3.97)
5.47
(9.77)
(3.78)
5.16
51.67
37.24
71.79
3.72
26.66
13.83
33.62
6.41
8.12
1.52
12.68
1 Month
3 Month
6 Month
1 Year
Nifty Index HPCL IN Equity BPCL IN Equity IOCL IN Equity
Institutional Equities
3 IOC
Exhibit 3: 5-year forward P/E
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Earnings revision
We have raised FY21E by 13.6% as a result of (i) revised GRMs and (ii) higher retail margins to (a) reset our very conservative assumptions to current trends and (b) adjust it for attrition over time due to likely increase in competition and (c) factor in the benefit of ramp up in Paradip PP volume. We have also introduced FY22E based on slightly subdued assumptions vs. FY21E on retail margins, unchanged refining margins and further ramp up in Paradip PP unit.
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Institutional Equities
5 IOC
Key highlights from IOC conference-call
2QFY20 Result Analysis
Reported net revenue for 2QFY20 at Rs1,116bn was down 15.4% YoY/QoQ
Reported EBITDA is lower by 47% YoY at Rs35.7bn on account of the hit on EBITDA from Refining and Petrochemical segments.
IND AS 116 - lease accounting impact for 1HFY20: PBT fell by Rs486.4mn due to net impact of: Depreciation increasing by Rs2.18bn and Interest by Rs1.35bn and Other expenses declining by Rs3.04bn
As of Sept 30 leased assets are up by Rs31.96bn and lease obligations are up by Rs34.2bn
Effective tax rate for the 2QFY20 was 30.8% (as the company has not opted for the lower rate for the 1HFY20 according to the notes). Year ago tax rate was 32.4%
Normalized GRM
was at US$3.9/bbl vs. US$2.27 a year ago. Reported GRM was US$1.28/bbl vs. US$4.69/bbl last year. Apart from the inventory loss, the company had taken a planned shutdown at Panipat, Digboi and Barauni refineries for Bharat VI upgradation project, which marginally impacted the GRMs.
Exhibit 7: Analysis of operating and financial parameters in Q2FY20 results
(Rsmn) Q2FY19 Q2FY20 Ch YoY % Q1FY20 Ch QoQ %
Average Gross Refining Margin US$/bbl 6.79 1.28 -81.1 4.69 -72.7
Inventory Gain /(Loss) Rs Mn 44,080 -11,780 -126.7 12,330 -195.5
Refinery 30,160 -15,340 -150.9 9,770 -257.0
Marketing 13,920 3,560 -74.4 2,560 39.1
Segment EBITDA Rs Mn
Refining 20,800 -20,270 -197.5 16,590 -222.2
Marketing 42,100 38,130 -9.4 45,650 -16.5
Pipelines 16,100 15,870 -1.4 16,230 -2.2
Petchem 15,620 7,740 -50.4 6,860 12.8
Others -16,590 730 -104.4 4,480 -83.7
Total 78,030 42,200 -45.9 89,810 -53.0
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Institutional Equities
6 IOC
Segment Analysis
Petchem segment revenue suffered a steep 40% YoY drop to Rs33.7bn and EBIT was down 64% YoY at Rs4.4bn. EBIT margin came in lower by 988bps at 14.7% vs. 24.6% a year ago. This was due to shrinkage of petchem spreads and lower production from the PTA plant which resumes operation during the quarter after a prolonged shutdown. The company expects the resumption of PTA production and the ramp up in the new PP plant at Paradip to support growth in the segment in future. According to management, one of the two trains of the PP plant had commenced operation during the quarter and generated profit worth Rs150mn in September.
Marketing EBITDA declined by 16.5% YoY to Rs38.13bn. This was a correction from previous year’s high margin, which the company said was not expected to sustain.
Pipeline EBITDA saw a marginal decline of 1.4% to Rs15.8bn, while the others segment swung back into +ve EBITDA of Rs730mn vs a loss of Rs16.6bn a year ago.
Exhibit 8: Change in product spreads vs. crude oil in 2QFY20 YoY
Product Ch YoY %
MS -18
HSD 4
Polymers -15
PTA -26
MEG -69
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Recent developments
The amount outstanding from government on LPG and SKO subsidies under DBT was Rs98bn as of September 2019.
Management expects gross debt to remain close to the September end level of Rs800bn, after providing for dividend payout and planned capex of Rs250bn if Government is regular in its subsidy payments. This includes lease liability worth Rs34.2n due to IND AS 116 lease accounting norms. In case subsidies increase and government delays payment, this could increase to FY19 level of Rs860bn.
The company has commenced supply of low sulphur marine fuel for ships that is compliant with IMTO norms and available for immediate delivery at Kandla and Kochi ports. Other Indian ports of Mumbai, Mangalore, Tuticorin, Chennai, Visakhapatnam, Paradip and Haldia would start delivery by mid November. The company plans to produce 1mn tonne of IMO compliant FO at its Gujarat refinery, the only one to produce this fuel at present.
Ennore LNG terminal in Tamil Nadu is already selling regassified LNG to anchor customers, including Chennai Petroleum Corporation, Madras Fertilizers, and Manali Petrochemicals. Management is hoping to ramp up operations from the current 15% capacity utilization, once the connecting pipeline across Tamilnadu for evacuating gas, which is likely to be completed by March’21. IOC’s Ennore LNG business is based on fixed IRR model, although management refused to discuss details of gas sourcing, pricing or tariffs.
New projects
Three new pipeline projects are under implementation at a total cost of Rs113bn
Overall IOC is expected to invest Rs250bn on capex across various segments in FY20E, out of which Rs98bn of capex has already been incurred in 1HFY20. The company is confident of meeting this target. No details were available for capex beyond FY20E. This includes the Bharat VI fuel upgardation projects underway at all its refinery, which management expects to complete by end FY20E. This will help convert all its MS and HSD production as per Bharat VI norms for suphur content.
Institutional Equities
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Exhibit 9: IOC’s capex plan for FY20E
Segments Rs Bn
Refinery 73
Pipeline 56
Marketing 65
Petrochemicals 15
E&P 10
Gas & Miscellaneous 31
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Institutional Equities
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Annexure -1 IOC results in tables and charts Exhibit 10: Standalone Margin Analysis
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research; note: Equity = Assets – Liabilities for each segment. Interest allocated prorata to segment assets.Unalloacted Segment details not adjusted in this analysis.
Other Expenses (28,953) (88,609) (59,843) (61,709) (60,439)
Cashflow from Financing (C) (120,074) 104,365 (77,735) (152,913) (204,980)
Ch in Cash and Cash equiv (108) 6,146 (2,285) 600 (192)
opg cash 3,295 3,187 9,333 7,048 7,648
closing cash 3,187 9,333 7,048 7,648 7,456
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Exhibit 25: Key ratios
Y/E March (Rsmn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Profitability & return ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 6.7 5.6 7.1 6.3
EBIT margin (%) 8.1 5.1 3.7 5.1 4.3
Net profit margin (%) 5.3 3.3 2.3 3.2 2.7
RoE (%) 20.5 15.4 10.1 14.5 13.0
Pre-tax RoCE (%) 21.7 16.4 10.9 16.0 14.8
RoIC (%) 16.4 12.8 9.2 13.1 11.5
Working capital ratios
Receivables (days) 8.5 9.2 9.0 10.0 10.0
Inventory (days) 74 61 60 62 63
Payables (days) 29 27 28 27 27
Cash conversion cycle 53.1 43.2 41.0 45.0 46.0
Leverage ratios
Net debt (Rsmn) 809,718 1,150,607 1,212,359 1,214,490 1,169,602
Net Debt (cash)/Equity (X) 0.71 1.02 1.04 0.97 0.88
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.95 3.27 4.19 2.98 2.92
Valuation ratios
EV/sales (x) 0.58 0.47 0.48 0.43 0.39
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.91 6.99 8.51 6.04 6.15
EV/FCF 20.51 -25.05 32.61 16.03 12.02
P/E (x) 6.10 7.54 11.10 7.23 7.60
P/BV (x) 1.19 1.16 1.12 1.05 0.99
FCF Yield (%) 4.88 -3.99 3.07 6.24 8.32
Dividend Yield (%) 7.01 7.38 4.91 5.96 6.31
Per share ratios
EPS 23.41 18.93 12.86 19.74 18.78
Cash EPS 31.49 28.19 23.71 32.56 32.48
BVPS 120.14 122.50 126.93 136.44 144.39
DPS 10.00 10.53 7.00 8.50 9.00
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research
Institutional Equities
14 IOC
Rating track Date Rating Market price Target price (Rs)
12 May 2017 Sell 425 396
29 May 2017 Sell 425 396
4 August 2017 Sell 388 357
31 October 2017 Sell 414 357
1 February 2018 Accumulate 418 414
24 May 2018* Sell 154 137
13 August 2018 Sell 161 137
5 November 2018 Under Review 148 -
31January 2019 Sell 135 112
21 May 2019 Sell 158 112
2 August 2019 Sell 137 112
4 November 2019 Accumulate 143 147
*Price after 1:1 bonus issue
Rating track graph
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DISCLOSURES
This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Equities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NBEPL”) for private circulation. NBEPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH000001436. NBEPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. NBEPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBEPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBEPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBEPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBEPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBEPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBEPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I, Amit Agarwal, research analyst the author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst is principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
Institutional Equities
16 IOC
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