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Integrated GMES Project on Landcover and Vegetation
geoland
Grid based Spatial Disaggregation of Population Data
Klaus Steinnocher – ARC systems research – Geostatistics Kongsvinger – 13.09.2006
Co-funded by the European Commission within the GMES initiative in FP-6
geoland
Background
Integrated project geoland
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research13.09.2006
funded within the 6th framework programme of the EC
represents a network of more than 50 research organisations, public administrations and service providers
aims to provide and establish geo-information products and services to support the European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) programme
utilises available Earth Observation resources, and integrates them with existing models into pre-operational end-user applications
geoland
Background
Observatory Spatial Planning
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Introducing innovative EO based services and products into the domain of spatial planning
Building upon a representative user group representing European, national and regional policy requirements
DG Regio, ESPON
Environmental agencies
Regional governments
Serving user needs by integrating EO-derived land cover and use information with existing socio-economic data
Spatial Planning on European level focuses to a very high degree on socio-economic data alone
Land cover and use information can substantially improve statistical data
13.09.2006
geoland
Linking people and pixels
Spatial disaggregation
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Population density per artificial surface areas
NUTS3 population density Share of artificial surface areas
+ =
13.09.2006
geoland
Spatial disaggregation
Population density
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Parameters Total population – global parameter on administrative units level
Housing density – local parameter from Earth observation
Spatial Disaggregation Distributes population according to housing densities
Results in local distribution of population
Assumptions Population density is proportional to housing density,
no population occurs outside housing areas, and
relationship between population and housing density is constant within a region, but might differ between regions.
Question Is the assumption valid?
How accurate are the resulting data?
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Transnational test site
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Region
Central Europe
7 countries
Data base
Residential areas from CLC (class 1.1 urban fabric)
Population per NUTS 3 area (Eurostat)
Reference data (Austria)
Population grid (250m) –Statistik Austria
Population per district / municipality (census)
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
CORINE land cover 2000
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Artificial surfaces
Agricultural areas
Forest and semi-natural areas
Wetlands
Waterbodies
CORINE land cover level 1
Source:CLC 2000
Wien
Praha
München
Stuttgart
Nürnberg
ChemnitzErfurt
Kassel
MilanoVenezia
Bratislava
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Proportion of urban fabric 2000 per 3x3km grid cell
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
no urban fabric
below 2.5
2.5 to 5
5 to 10
10 to 20
20 to 25
25 to 30
30 to 40
40 to 50
50 to 60
60 to 75
75 to 100
Proportion of urban fabric [%]
Source:CLC 2000
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Population density 2000 per NUTS 3 area
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Source:Eurostat Regio Data Base
below 50
50 to 100
100 to 150
150 to 200
200 to 300
300 to 500
500 to 1.000
1.000 to 2.000
above 2.000
Population density [pop/km2]
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Population density 2000 on urban fabric per 3x3km grid cell
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
no population
below 10
10 to 100
100 to 250
250 to 500
500 to 1.000
1.000 to 2.000
2.000 to 5.000
above 5.000
Population density [pop/km2]
Source:CLC 2000Eurostat Regio Data Base
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Population density 2000 on urban fabric per 3x3km grid cell
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Source:CLC 2000Eurostat
no population below 100
100 to 500
500 to 1.000
1.000 to 1.500
1.500 to 2.500
2.500 to 10.000
10.000 to 20.000
above 20.000
Population density [pop/grid cell]
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Population density 2000 from census per 3x3km grid cell
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Source:Statistik Austria
no population below 100
100 to 500
500 to 1.000
1.000 to 1.500
1.500 to 2.500
2.500 to 10.000
10.000 to 20.000
20.000 to 75.000
above 75.000
Population density [pop/grid cell]
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Comparison of census and disaggregation results
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Total cells 9.774
Populated cells: Statistik Austria census grid 7.739 NUTS 3 / CLC 1.1 disaggregation 4.009
Disaggregation covers only 51,8 % of cells, BUT 91,3 % of total population
District level all districts urban districts excluded
average error 21,4% (14.505) 13,8% (8.278)
13.09.2006
geoland
European case study
Comparison on district level
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Source:CLC 2000Eurostat / Statistik Austria
below -70-70 to -40-40 to -20 -20 to 20 20 to 40 above 40
Relative population difference [%]
13.09.2006
geoland
Regional case study
Vorarlberg
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Region
State of Vorarlberg
5 districts, 93 municipalities
Data sets
Housing density 1:25.000 – 3 density classes (250m grid)
Residential areas 1:100.000 – 1 class (from CLC)
Population – total for entire region
Validation data
Population density raster (250m) – from Statistik Austria
Population totals for districts / municipalities
13.09.2006
geoland
Regional case study
Comparison of housing and population density (250m grid)
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 20 40 60 80 100
housing density (in %)
Po
pu
atio
n d
ensi
ty(p
op
per
gri
dce
ll)
13.09.2006
Satellite image
geoland
Regional case study
Comparison of population densities (250m grid)
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Reference data (census)Disaggregation results
13.09.2006
geoland
Regional case study
Comparison of population densities (250m grid)
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Reference data (census)Disaggregation results Difference to reference
13.09.2006
geoland
Regional case study
Comparison of population on district level
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Bludenz Bregenzer Wald Bregenz Dornbirn Feldkirch
Po
pu
lati
on reference
housing densities
residential
proportional
housing densities residential proportional
relative average error 8,4% (5.904) 12,7% (8.874) 94,7% (66.325)
13.09.2006
geoland
Regional case study
Comparison of population on district level
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Absolute deviations from reference per municipality
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
municipalities
de
lta
po
pu
lati
on
delta housing density delta residential
housing densities residential proportional
relative average error 12,8% (467) 26,9% (981) 113,3% (4.136)
13.09.2006
geoland
Conclusions
Observatory Spatial PlanningKlaus Steinnocher
ARC systems research
Spatial disaggregation of population leads to reliable results
Accuracies
improving with level of detail of land cover data (housing densities)
depending on spatial reference unit (districts, municipalities, etc.)
smaller units lead to lower relative but higher absolute accuracies
urban centers are underestimated, due to missing information on building heights
sparsely populated areas are underestimated, due to minimum mapping unit
For disaggregation of population housing density classes are required
Large cities should be treated separately
13.09.2006
Integrated GMES Project on Landcover and Vegetation
geoland
Thank you for your attention!
Co-funded by the European Commission within the GMES initiative in FP-6
www.gmes-geoland.info
Contact:
ARC systems research GmbH
Klaus Steinnocher
+43–(0)50550–3876
geoland coordinators:
Medias-France
Infoterra GmbH