Integrated Water Resource Planning –Water, Forests, People & Policy

Idaho Foresters Forum February 4, 2014

Wayne S. Wright, CFP, PWSSenior Principal

Some “Water Basics”…

The earth is a closed system. The same water that existed on the earth millions of years ago is still present today.

Of all the water on the earth, humans can use only about three tenths of a percent of this water.

The United States uses nearly 80 percent of its water for irrigation and power production.

The United States uses about 346,000 million gallons of fresh water every day.

A Matter of Scale and Availability…All water on Earth

All freshwater on Earth

All water in rivers and lakes on Earth

Source USGS: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gallery/global-water-volume.html

As the Climate Changes – So Does Our Water

About 97% of climate scientists agree humans are changing the climate.

As global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate system will experience abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes.

By making informed choices now, we can reduce risks for future generations and ourselves, and help communities adapt to climate change.

Forestry and the Carbon Cycle

Climate Change Effects Forests & Forestry

As the Climate Changes – So Does Our ForestsWarmer temps lead to longer growing seasons – risk of early bud break/loss of cold hardening as well as frost damage in spring

Decreased snowpack leads to increased soil frost risk and root damage; warmer temps alter soil/plant processes

Altered hydrographs = earlier peak flow, increased flashiness, and decreased summer base flow

Summer drought potential

Changed habitat – plants, animals, people

Pests, Invasives, and diseases

Forest vulnerability

How does this affect people?

• Food production

• Ocean acidification

• Ecological impacts

• Sea level rise

• Floods, heat waves & droughts

• Wildfires

• Health & well-being effects

Altered Economics

Photo credit: University of Utah

Ecological Change

Wild animal abundance is shifting. These shifts have food supply and related industry implications.

Extinctions of sensitive and less mobile species are expected.

Ocean acidification is resulting from the oceans absorbing much of the atmospheric CO2. Early affects are observed on shelled organisms such as oysters.

California Red Hills Roach (US Fish & Wildlife Service)

Ecological Change

Wild animal abundance is shifting. These shifts have food supply and related industry implications.

Extinctions of sensitive and less mobile species are expected.

Ocean acidification is resulting from the oceans absorbing much of the atmospheric CO2. Early affects are observed on shelled organisms such as oysters.

A skipjack tuna caught off the Copper River in Alaska. There had been one confirmed documentation of such a fish in Alaska in the 1980s. (Courtesy of Alaska Department of Fish

and Game) September 16, 2014

Courtesy NOAA PMEL

Photo credit: KOMO News 2014

Infrastructure Impact – WildfiresCoastline highways, utilities, bridges are vulnerable to increased storm surge, sea level rise, and extreme climatic events. Cost of replacement

will increase and designs must accommodate expected changes.

Photo Credit: Mike Bonnickson

Watershed Impact – WildfiresSoil damage and loss are significant issues that impact forest

regeneration, watershed processes of soil cycling, river process impacts and aquatic species impacts.

Photo credit: NBC 2014

Infrastructure Impact – FloodsWildfire alters soil characteristics which often leads to

flooding. Devastating impact to roads, bridges, communities, and fisheries habitat.

Infrastructure Impact – FloodsExisting roads and bridges are insufficient to withstand increased

flooding and river responses such as channel migration.

Photo credit: Simon Dixon 2014

Altered HydrographPrecipitation is shifting to faster runoff resulting in higher rates of

erosion, forest disturbance, and increased watershed stress.

Altered Hydrograph

Precipitation is shifting to faster runoff resulting in less snow pack with profound impact on agriculture, hydropower production, fisheries

production, and potable water supply.

Photo credit: WDFW 2013Photo credit: NY Times 2014

Influences on Management ChoicesForest management responses to climate change will be influenced by the changing nature of private forestland ownership, globalization of forestry markets, emerging markets for bioenergy, and U.S. climate

change policy.

Effects on Communities and EcosystemsChoices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and

ecosystems are to the effects of climate change.

Deadly Once-in-1,000-Years Rains Wipe Out Roads in Arizona, Nevada Image: John Locher/Associated Press

Land UseFlooding, drought, and water supply are driving

decisions about community location, growth potential, and rebuilding after storm damage, etc.

Sinks and CyclesIn total, land in the United States absorbs and stores an amount

of carbon equivalent to about 17% of annual U.S. fossil fuel emissions. U.S. forests and associated wood products account

for most of this land sink. The effect of this carbon storage is to partially offset warming from emissions of CO2 and other

greenhouse gases.

Impacts and OptionsAltered biogeochemical cycles together with climate change increase

the vulnerability of biodiversity, food security, human health, and water quality to changing climate. However, natural and managed shifts in major biogeochemical cycles can help limit rates of climate change.

AdaptationWhole system management is often more effective than focusing on

one species at a time, and can help reduce the harm to wildlife, natural assets, and human well-being that climate disruption might cause.

BalanceWater demands for:

• Power

• Consumption

• Agriculture

• Watershed health

• Industry

• Fish & Wildlife

New Directions for U.S. Water Policy

Nine Economic Facts about Water in the United States1. The US is experiencing serious, but not unprecedented, drought conditions.

2. Many of America’s Western states are consistently vulnerable to drought.

3. Population growth is highest in America’s driest states

4. Half of water withdrawals in the United States are used for power generation.

5. 80% of California’s freshwater withdrawals go to agriculture.

6. Water is a crucial input for a wide variety of American industries, not just agriculture.

7. Domestic use of water per capita is highest in the driest states.

8. Household water prices vary tremendously across states.

9. There are more water systems in the US than there are schools.

Water Resources Utility of the FutureThe Clean Water Act is 40 years old. Public agency leaders are

transforming clean water delivery services. Emerging new technologies and innovations are driving this transformation – stretching taxpayer

dollars, improving the environment, creating jobs, and stimulating the economy. The most progressive of today’s clean water agencies are

defining the Water Resources Utility of the Future (UTOF).

Priority Actions for Congress and the Federal Government1. Refocus federal grant programs to support new technologies.

2. Create an early stage technology and innovation investment program similar to the energy sector.

3. Support statutory changes to the CWA

4. Embrace Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) programs and promote IWRM methods.

5. Support an Executive Order on water reuse/recycling

6. Develop an intergovernmental partnership for water sector adaptation and resiliency.

7. Create and support market-based approaches to efficiently and more equitably address watershed-scale water quality challenges.

8. Consider a 21st Century Watershed Act to drive the water sector.

Potable Supply Changes

Many places in America cannot support the local communities with local water supplies. Water is piped long distances to serve population zones.

Water reuse/recycling is becoming more common and accepted.

Desalinization of coastal water is becoming more common.

Water management has significant cost relative to environmental and economic conditions.

What can (or should) we do?

Plan and act with adaptation in mind.

Make positive policy changes.

Think “water first”.

Promote water cycle education.

Clean up our act.

Rethink land use.

Continue the discussion…

THANK YOU

Wayne S. Wright, CFP, PWSSenior Principal