Integration of mega projects into the existing road network – the critical role of traffic modelling

Craig McGeochPrincipal Manager, Road Network Analysis

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• Major projects and the ‘Wave’

• Integrating projects into the existing network– the role of Roads and Maritime– measuring integration / network performance

• The role of traffic modelling– some key issues

• Case studies– M4 Widening Road Network Performance Mitigation Plan (RNPMP)– CBD and South East Light Rail (CSELR)

This presentation

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NSW Roads Infrastructure Pipeline1. Mega projects

• Roads engineering construction in NSW is picking up, led by the ‘mega road projects’– NorthConnex

– WestConnex Stage 1

– WestConnex Stage 2

– WestConnex Stage 3

– Western Sydney Airport Roads

– then also…

– Western Harbour Tunnel

– Beaches Link

– F6 Corridor

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NSW Roads Infrastructure Pipeline2. The Wave

• But it is not just the mega projects…

• Major project capital expenditure is expected to more than double to $16 billion in the next five years to transform the State’s roads, freight and maritime network

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Roads and Maritime Services

1. To build, manage and maintain the state road and waterway network and assets.

2. To maximise the customer benefits and service potential of our networks.

3. To integrate our networks with private motorways, local roads and the broader transport system.

4. To use our networks to facilitate economic and social development and growth in NSW.

Roles

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The Role of Traffic Modelling

• Traffic modelling is increasingly being used to justify and prioritise investment in transport infrastructure:– business cases

– capacity design / project scope

– environmental evaluations

– economic evaluations (road user benefits)

– financial evaluations

– construction impacts

– etc.

• Projects of all scales: – pinch point programme

– mega projects e.g. WestConnex

• Guidance: Roads and Maritime ServicesTraffic Modelling Guidelines

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How is ‘Integration’ Measured

• Major projects may introduce new impacts:– a light rail line through an existing intersection(s)

– a motorway connection to an existing arterial road

• What are the desired (‘target’) criteria for network performance– Level of Service (and what Level of Service: C?, D?)

– already congested locations?

• What is the area of project influence?- - - - - - - - -

• Traffic modelling is essential to assess forecast network performance• Challenges – future year operational models in congested areas

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Case Study – M4 Widening

• A major investment in Sydney’s road infrastructure by the NSW and Australian governments:– the largest urban road

project currently underway in Australia

– comprises a series of interconnected motorways and road upgrades, enhancing and extending the M4 Motorway from Parramatta to Sydney Airport, and duplicating the M5 East corridor

WestConnex

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M4 Widening

• Stage 1: Parramatta to Haberfield will be completed in two sections:– M4 Widening to four lanes

in each direction for 7.5km between Church St, Parramatta and Homebush Bay Drive

– M4 East – widening 1km and new 5km 2x3 lane road tunnels linking the M4 at Homebush Bay with Parramatta Road and City West Link at Haberfield

‘Stage 1a’ of WestConnex Project

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M4 Widening

• Director General’s requirements for EIS:– Induced traffic!

• State significant infrastructure (SSI) Instrument of approval:– Condition B15: Within 12 months of approval*, the Proponent shall develop a Road

Network Performance Mitigation Plan• updated consideration of potential mitigation measures to manage any predicted traffic

performance deficiencies• justify why the predicted ‘do minimum’ performance of any intersection of the adjoining road

network cannot be maintained (if necessary)

– The purpose of the plan is to manage the performance impacts of the SSI on the adjoining road network by identifying or confirming mitigation improvements that could be required in areas where traffic performance may be unsatisfactory at time of completion of construction

* i.e. prior to opening of the project

Planning Requirements

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M4 Widening

• Instrument of approval:– Condition E6: At 12 months and 5 years after the commencement of operation the

Proponent shall prepare an Operational Traffic Performance Review• assess traffic and road network performance and the mitigation measures identified in the

RNPMP

Ongoing Requirements

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Developing the M4W RNPMP

• Key intersections identified

• LinSig and SIDRA analysis

• Future volumes with M4 Widening using forecasts from WRTM and additive method (ref. Traffic Modelling Guidelines)

• ‘Clusters’ of LinSig networked intersections

• Evaluation criteria:– Level of Service– queues

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M4W RNPMP – Outcomes

• Pre-opening mitigation measures developed with the aim of maximising the operational efficiency of the existing road network when the M4 Widening is open to traffic

• Post opening measures will be the subject of detailed assessments underpinned by traffic volumes recorded once the M4 Widening is open to traffic and operating under stable conditions

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Case Study – CBD and South East Light Rail

• Light rail will play a central role in the future of transport in Sydney:– a high capacity, reliable and sustainable

mode of of public transport– will ease pressure on Sydney’s roads by

reducing the city’s reliance on buses– features a one-kilometre pedestrian zone

between Wynyard and Town Hall

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CBD and South East Light Rail

• Instrument of approval:– Condition C16: Within 12 months of the completion of construction, the Proponent

shall commission an Independent Environmental Audit of the SSI• assess the operational performance of the SSI against the aims and objectives for the project• assess the environmental performance of the SSI against the predictions made and

conclusions drawn in project planning documents

Planning Requirements

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Modelling for CSELR

• Two-tiered approach

• Localised design issues:– VISSIM

– LinSig

– SIDRA

– Commuter

• Broader network and corridor operations:– Aimsun (hybrid)

– TfNSW in collaboration with Roads and Maritime

– Forecast traffic volumes from TfNSW Public Transport Project Model (PTPM)

– SCATS operations

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CSELR – Outcomes

• Peak spreading necessary for 2021 modelling (esp. PM peak)

• Evaluation measures:– global network statistics

– network traffic volumes

– network speeds

– intersection delays

• The EIS for CSELR describes that broadly speaking, the traffic analysis demonstrates that the CSELR project can be introduced into the road network without significant detrimental impact to general traffic and buses

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Conclusion

• Roads and Maritime Services has an ambitious task ahead to deliver the single largest series of infrastructure investments in the State’s history

• Planning for these mega projects must include assessment of how the projects will integrate with the existing road network

• Traffic modelling is essential to this task

• The M4 Widening RNPMP and CSELR provide examples of the application of traffic modelling to integrate major projects into the existing road network

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QuestionsThank You