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IntelliDrive ℠ Deployment Scenarios Workshop

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IntelliDrive ℠ Deployment Scenarios Workshop. Dulles, Virginia June 22-23, 2010. Welcome. Introductions. A beginning. AN Ending?. Let’s baseline: Definitions of IntelliDrive. Benefits?. In your opinion, please rank the following potential benefits of IntelliDrive in order of importance:. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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IntelliDrive℠ Deployment Scenarios Workshop Pinyon Labs/Noblis, Inc. INTELLIDRIVE℠ DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS WORKSHOP Dulles, Virginia June 22-23, 2010
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Page 1: IntelliDrive ℠  Deployment Scenarios Workshop

IntelliDrive℠ Deployment Scenarios WorkshopPinyon Labs/Noblis, Inc.

INTELLIDRIVE℠ DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS WORKSHOP

Dulles, VirginiaJune 22-23, 2010

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WELCOME

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INTRODUCTIONS

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A BEGINNING

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AN ENDING?

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Let’s baseline: Definitions of IntelliDrive

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BENEFITS?In your opinion, please rank the following potential benefits of IntelliDrive in order of importance:

First: Reduce Accidents

Second: Reduce Congestion

Third: Provide Better/More Comprehensive Advisory Services

Fourth: Reduce Environmental Impact

Group consensus:

# Re

spon

dent

s

Rank

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AGENDA

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TODAY’S AGENDA

• Expected outcomes• Overview of the deployment scenarios• Identification of major issues and parameters

for tomorrow• Q&A and instructions for the deep-dives

tomorrow.…

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TOMORROW’S AGENDA

• Breakout sessions (aka the deep-dives)• Breakout session reporting• Outcomes, key take-aways, and summary

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THE WHATS

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WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?

• We’re mid-way through the development of a set of alternatives for deploying IntelliDrive, and need to share what we’ve done to date.

• We’re following-on to interviews we conducted last year in an effort to expand the range and nuance of the analysis

• We’re seeking additional insight from the communities interested in IntelliDrive deployment.

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WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE?VII was over ambitious and over spec’d including DSRC I hope to

see some practicality but still full government commitment...and

private sector opportunities

To ensure that local agency concerns and the practicality of deployment are dealt with

in a responsible manner

Learn about the deployment scenarios that have been developed

from system integrator and technology developer perspective

To gauge progress being made by USDOT and its

partners on this initiative

To determine if there is a workable framework in development by Federal Agencies that is a practical

way forward in deploying the technology already being demonstrated by a number of different

companies both in-vehicle and fixed installations.

I want to see IntelliDrive roll out now and start saving lives, reducing congestion

and reducing emissions - in some fashion and on some apps without waiting for

perfection in privacy and security

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WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE?

• You’re interested in what’s going on with IntelliDrive, and may have a strong opinion about how it ought to be deployed.

• You’re hoping to contribute to the thinking on deployment alternatives

• You’re making an effort to ensure appropriate levels of attention are being paid to the appropriate areas

• You’re also here to help

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WHAT ARE WE DOING TOGETHER?

• Together, we’re going to explore the results of the work to-date.

• Together, we’re going to evaluate, critique, and improve the existing deployment scenarios.

• Together, we’re going to broaden perspectives, reveal new possibilities, engage our imagination.

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WHAT’S THE POINT?

• USDOT is exploring V2V, but that can’t be the only option

• There are other ways, and they – like the current path – offers benefits as well as detours

• We need you to supplement our thinking on alternatives

• You can help craft a broader – more useful – perspective on deployment options

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What do you – or your organization – hope to get out

of the next day or so?

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SCENARIOS

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A SCENARIO IS…

a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world, sufficiently vivid that a stakeholder can clearly see and comprehend the problems, challenges, and opportunities that such a world would present.

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EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES AND PERSPECTIVES

• What’s desired? Why?• What’s appropriate?• What’s possible?• What are the pieces, and how do they fit

together?• What are the implications? Short-term? Long-

term?

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KEY IDEA 1:

Meaningful solutions arise only from a common understanding of the problem.

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KEY IDEA 2:

The problem is not technological.

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ROLE OF THE DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS

There are lots of ways for US DOT to be involved – what makes sense and what is appropriate?

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CONSTRUCTING THE SCENARIOS

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RESEARCH

• Environmental scan – looked at two components:– Broad scan indentified global and domestic trends in science

and technology, society and culture, economics, environment, and politics and policy

– Close scan identified specifically IntelliDriveSM-relevant trends• Stakeholder interviews– Auto OEMs, tier 1 suppliers, state and local agencies, VCs and

fund managers, software developers, hardware developers, mobility service providers, academics, legislators, business groups

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ANALYTICS

• Trend frequency, probability, impact, and implications

• Key considerations in combining significant elements– What has proven able to, or can, work together?– What must also be included? Excluded?– What are second-order elements and implications

for certain combinations?

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CHALLENGES?If money were not an issue, how would you rank the difficulty of solving the following challenges to the successful deployment of IntelliDrive?

First: Legal Framework (including liability)

Second: Security

Third: Ongoing Roles and Responsibilities

Fourth: Privacy

Fifth: User Adoption

Sixth: Data Standards

Group consensus:

# Re

spon

dent

s

Rank

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RELATIVE CERTAINTIES

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RELATIVE UNCERTAINTIES

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WHAT’S MOST IMPORTANT?If money were not an issue, which of the following would be the most important in ensuring IntelliDrive’s success?

Maturity of the technology

Driver willingness

International standards harmonization

State/local political buy-in

Federal guidance and coordination

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

# Respondents

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SCENARIO OVERVIEW

Full Throttle Safety Net Facilitator

Proving Ground

2010-2020

2020 +

V2I + V2V V2V

DSRC No DSRC

Depl

oym

ent C

omm

itmen

t

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DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS

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FULL THROTTLE

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FULL THROTTLEScenario synopsis

• As the baseline scenario, this represents the view that had been the dominant expectation for IntelliDriveSM (or, more precisely, that which was VII) pre-2009/2008, but updated to reflect current potential timetables.• This scenario assumes an aggressive DSRC-focused implementation timetable

with an application focus on active safety. As such, this scenario would require a near-term government mandate and significant associated funding.

Technology assumptions

• Platform: Integrated communications platform (including both V2V and V2I)• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications

Market role • Limited in areas where government involved; fulfilling unmet needs in areas outside of active safety

USDOT role • Define standards and requirements• Develop rules for implementation of DSRC devices in new vehicles• Establish implementation priorities and timetable• Allocate funding among state agencies for implementation

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SAFETY NET

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SAFETY NETScenario synopsis

• USDOT continues in its current direction with a focus on DSRC-orientated safety.• This scenario assumes that the funding required for V2V and V2I deployment as

imagined in Full Throttle is not available, and so deployment is focused on V2V applications.

Technology assumptions

• Platform: Integrated (or aftermarket) communications platform supporting V2V• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications

Market role • Likely resistance to V2V active-safety until proven (and then probably mandated); well developed efforts to develop and market mobility and passive safety applications.

USDOT role • Push forward with research on V2V safety options• Build stakeholder support• Define standards and requirements• Develop rules for implementation of DSRC devices in new vehicles

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PROVING GROUND

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PROVING GROUNDScenario synopsis

• This scenario assumes an ongoing focus on IntelliDriveSM as, from the federal government’s perspective, primarily an active safety capability. But economic trends and intense competition for limited funds delays implementation for 10+ years

Technology assumptions

• Platform: Integrated communications platform (including both V2V and V2I)• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications

Market role •Will find solutions in mobility and passive safety; probability of near active safety applications and services; possibility of embracing government-developed active safety networks and opportunities once deployed

USDOT role • Define active safety standards and requirements for devices that connect to DSRC• Establish research and testing priorities and timetable• Allocate funding among state agencies for testing and limited local

implementations

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FACILITATOR

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FACILITATORScenario synopsis

• This scenario is focused on realizing the long-term goal of creating “connected” vehicles through appropriately encouraging and supporting the private sector. In this scenario, USDOT is technology agnostic

Technology assumptions

• Platform: Whichever network is most appropriate for a given task• Applications: Both active-safety as well as advisory services and system

monitoring capabilities – innovative automakers and independent applications providers will likely develop a large range of mobility apps that use existing networks

Market role • Focus on delivering those services and tools that drivers want to, and will, buy

USDOT role • Define standards and requirements for for data collection and reporting that support public safety, mobility, and environmental priorities• Provide research and innovation funding and support to the private sector as

well as state agencies for testing and implementation connectivity based services

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THE PROCESS

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OUR TASK IS TO EXPLORE

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IMMERSION

• Inhabit the world articulated and evoked by the scenario– What is the world like?– What are some assumptions about technology, or

policies, or end-users, or transportation more generally?– Who are the players? What are their motivations?– What has to be true for the deployment to look the way it

does?– What stands between now and the future suggested by

the scenario?

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FACILITATED SESSIONS

• 4 scenarios; 4 rooms; 1 scenario per room• Each room will dive deeply into its assigned

scenario• At the end of the morning, we’ll come

together and present the results of our exploration, and discuss broader implications.

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NEXT STEPS FOR TODAY

• Pick-up your scenario and supporting material packet

• Read all the scenarios this evening, and prepare to discuss tomorrow


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